Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. From a valuation perspective, upstream coal - based profits are still high, coastal MTO profits have slightly declined, but inland downstream profits are still poor with room for repair, and methanol valuation is relatively high. From a driving perspective, the anti - involution policy may have limited actual impact on methanol production, as old - fashioned production devices account for a small proportion, and there is no expectation of a significant reduction in methanol supply. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build more inventories, and port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, which will suppress the East China spot price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the possible repeated adjustment of policy expectations. (View score: 0) [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Methanol futures prices (closing prices): MA01 decreased from 2587 yuan/ton to 2492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton (-3.67%); MA05 decreased from 2504 yuan/ton to 2429 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton (-3.00%); MA09 decreased from 2519 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton (-4.57%) [1] - Methanol spot prices (daily average): Prices in most regions decreased, such as in Taicang from 2487.50 yuan/ton to 2400 yuan/ton (-87.50 yuan/ton, -3.52%), in Shandong from 2340 yuan/ton to 2325 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton, -0.64%), etc. Some regions like Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei remained unchanged [1] - Basis: Taicang spot - MA increased from -99.50 yuan/ton to -92 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50 yuan/ton [1] 2. Coal and Natural Gas Prices - Coal spot prices: Datong Q5500 increased from 522.50 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.50 yuan/ton (1.44%); Yulin Q6000 increased from 525 yuan/ton to 537.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.50 yuan/ton (2.38%) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol production profit: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged at 419.30 yuan/ton and - 540 yuan/ton respectively. Northwest MTO profit increased from 224.60 yuan/ton to 279.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.20 yuan/ton (24.58%); East China MTO profit increased from -838.57 yuan/ton to -621.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 217 yuan/ton (25.88%) [1] - Methanol downstream profit: Acetic acid profit increased from 248.21 yuan/ton to 305.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 57.48 yuan/ton (23.16%); MTBE profit decreased from 192.20 yuan/ton to 94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98.20 yuan/ton (-51.09%); Formaldehyde profit remained unchanged at -258 yuan/ton; Another product's profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (-12.20%) [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic futures: The main methanol contract MA2509 weakened and declined, opening at 2521 yuan/ton, closing at 2404 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1172331 lots and an open interest of 616715, showing increased volume and decreased positions. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - Foreign information: In a Middle - Eastern country, only one 1 million - ton methanol plant is currently shut down, and multiple methanol plants are operating at normal loads. It is estimated that the loading speed at the port in mid - to - late July will be higher than that in early July [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated and declined, and closed at 2412 at night. On Monday, coking coal hit the daily limit down. The bullish sentiment brought by anti - involution may be adjusted, and methanol made up for the decline [1]

镍与不锈钢日评20250729:"反内卷"情绪回落,波动加大 | | 资讯 | 1.工信部:巩固新能源汽车行业"内卷式"竞争综合整治成效,加强光伏等重点行业治理。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 望 | 7月28日,沪续主力合约成荡下行,成交量为297904手(+132194),持仓量为96124手(-2883),伦袋市场成交 较弱,甚差升水扩大。供给端,锲矿价格持平,上周级矿到迷量均加,港口库存去库:煤铁厂亏损幅皮收窄,6月国内排产 减少,印尼排产减少,镍铁去库;7月国内电解腺糖产城少,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元裤产增加:不锈钢厂排产下降; | | | | 合金与电俄需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LNE增加,社会库存减少,保税区库存持平。综上,纯银基本面偏松,但宏 | | | | 观氛围主导,情绪变化较大,预计媒份高位震荡。操作上,建议短线连高布空,等持"反内发"情绪消退。（观点评分:-1） | | 投资集略 | | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | | 7月28日,不锈钢主力合约废荡下行,成交量为349991手(+149518),持仓量为112413手(- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For lead, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and expectations of peak - season consumption support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For zinc, the market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory continues to accumulate. With a weak fundamental situation and the fading of the "anti - involution" sentiment, short - term zinc prices are expected to be weakly sorted [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Performance**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 0.24% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 55.09%, and the open interest decreased by 3.79%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 0.15%, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.09% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall. A primary lead smelter had a small decline in production due to equipment failure last week. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and the supply of recyclers is limited. Some smelters reduced or stopped production due to insufficient raw materials or cost inversion. As the inventory of electrolytic lead factories decreased, the market's fear of high prices increased, and the acceptance of high - priced secondary lead improved, and the start - up of secondary lead production gradually recovered. In terms of demand, as July is coming to an end, the market still expects peak - season consumption, but most enterprises suspended purchases for inventory checks at the end of the month [1]. - **Industry News**: Guizhou Lukong, a wholly - owned subsidiary of Shandong Zihuan, can produce 200,000 tons of lead ingots, 38,000 tons of recycled plastics, and 50,000 tons of sulfuric acid annually, with an expected annual output value of about 4 billion yuan. On July 27, 2025, its core smelting system was successfully put into operation, marking the official implementation of large - scale production of multi - metal recovery and comprehensive utilization of lead - containing resources [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.53% compared to the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures closed down 1.05% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 26.97%, and the open interest decreased by 3.69%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) decreased by 0.83%, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.22% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 3,800 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index increased to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton. With the continuous loosening of raw materials, the zinc concentrate processing fee in August is expected to continue to rise, weakening the cost support. Smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the output shows an obvious upward trend. In terms of demand, the continuous strengthening of zinc prices during the week significantly reduced downstream off - season purchases [1]. - **Industry News**: In May 2025, Bolivia's zinc concentrate production was 39,900 metric tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%. From January to May, the total zinc concentrate production in Bolivia was 210,300 metric tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of July 28, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 103,700 tons, an increase of 11,100 tons compared to July 21 and an increase of 5,400 tons compared to July 24 [1].

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Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - On July 28, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit during intraday trading. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from a discount to a premium. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, while the price of lithium mica increased. Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased. In terms of downstream demand, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week, while the production schedule of lithium manganate decreased in June. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. Registered warehouse receipts increased, social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, and downstream and other sectors increased inventory. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to continue holding out - of - the - money put options [1] Summary by Related Data Futures Market - On July 28, the closing prices of near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, continuous - three contract, and the active contract of lithium carbonate futures were 71700 yuan/ton, 73120 yuan/ton, 71420 yuan/ton, 71420 yuan/ton, and 73120 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline compared with July 25. The trading volume of the active contract was 1005395 hands (-198029), and the open interest was 378472 hands (-112616) [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73900 yuan/ton, showing an increase compared with previous periods. The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium hydroxide, ternary precursors, and lithium iron phosphate also showed different degrees of changes [1] Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate futures was 12276 tons (+280). The total social inventory of SMM lithium carbonate was 143170 tons, with smelters reducing inventory by 2654 tons and downstream and other sectors increasing inventory by 1544 tons and 1660 tons respectively [1] Spread - The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 780 yuan/ton, showing an increase compared with previous periods. The spreads between different contracts also changed [1] Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 805 US dollars/ton (-5), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1165 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bullish sentiment in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets has faded, leading to price corrections. For industrial silicon, the supply may decrease after offsetting increases and decreases, while demand has mixed changes. For polysilicon, the supply is expected to increase slightly, but the demand in the photovoltaic market remains weak [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.52% to 9,700 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price fell 1.45% to 10,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 8.33% to 8,915 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon prices remained flat, while the futures main contract closing price dropped 3.17% to 49,409 yuan/ton [1]. Market News - On July 26, the China Tendering and Bidding Network announced the winning candidate publicity for the second batch of photovoltaic module procurement of Guangdong Electric Power Development Co., Ltd. in 2025. Jingao and Hengdian Dongci were short - listed, with Jingao at 0.73 yuan/W and Hengdian Dongci at 0.701 yuan/W, and the procurement volume was tentatively set at 124.09MWp [1]. - Premier Energies plans to build a new 1.2GW TOPCon solar cell production line in Telangana, India, which will increase its solar cell production capacity from 2GW to 3.2GW [1]. Investment Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Northern large factories have production cuts with no restart news, while Southwest production areas are in the wet season with lower power costs and a slow increase in enterprise operations. Overall, supply may decrease after offsetting [1]. - Demand side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, with some restarts in July to bring demand increments; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory willingness is insufficient [1]. Investment Strategy - Polysilicon - Supply side: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and some new production capacity may be put into use, with an expected slight increase in production in July, approaching 110,000 tons [1]. - Demand side: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed the increase due to the expected price increase of polysilicon, the terminal market is still weak [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the given text about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market's surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the continuous recovery of TC and good returns from by - products such as sulfuric acid, smelters' production enthusiasm is high. However, high zinc prices and the consumption off - season suppress downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and inventory continues to accumulate, with strong upward pressure. It is expected that zinc prices may weaken and consolidate in the short term, operating in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and downstream consumption [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots rose 2.02% to 22,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract rose 2.65% to 22,885 yuan/ton; the LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.18% to 2,829 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Industry Conditions**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve; galvanizing start - up increased slightly but the terminal remained weak; die - casting zinc alloy start - up was cautious due to the off - season; zinc oxide start - up declined due to weak demand; zinc ingot social inventory continued to accumulate [4][15][45]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Raw Material End - **Zinc Concentrate Inventory**: As of July 25, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 80,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total inventory of 7 ports was 354,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [19]. - **Zinc Concentrate Profit**: As of July 24, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,448 yuan/metal ton. In June, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 330,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.87% and a year - on - year increase of 22.42%; from January to June, the cumulative import volume was 2.5339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 47.74% [25]. - **TC Changes**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained at 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import index rose to 76.25 US dollars/dry ton [28]. 2.2 Smelting End - **Smelter Production**: Refining zinc enterprises' production profits continued to improve. As of July 24, the production profit of refining zinc enterprises was - 138 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc output was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and the output in July is expected to remain high [37]. - **Import Situation**: The import profit window was closed. As of July 25, the import profit of refined zinc was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 192,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30,000 tons [42]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis 3.1 Galvanizing - **Start - up Rate**: The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate increased by 0.30 percentage points to 59.42%. The good trend of black metal prices and traders' continuous replenishment drove the recovery of galvanizing start - up. However, orders for guardrails, lamp posts, and photovoltaic brackets remained weak [49]. - **Inventory Changes**: Galvanizing enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as high zinc prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Finished product inventory decreased as enterprises were pessimistic about the future and consumed inventory for profit realization [52]. 3.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - **Price Changes**: The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy rose 1.96% to 23,395 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy rose 1.92% to 23,945 yuan/ton [58]. - **Start - up Rate**: The die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased by 0.92 percentage points to 51.03%. Due to the consumption off - season, enterprise production declined, and the start - up rate was expected to continue to decline [61]. - **Inventory Changes**: Die - casting zinc alloy enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to weak purchasing enthusiasm at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased as the shipment rhythm slowed down [64]. 3.3 Zinc Oxide - **Price Changes**: The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% rose 1.40% to 21,700 yuan/ton [68]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc oxide enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 55.99%. Weak terminal demand and the off - season led to a general performance of orders [71]. - **Inventory Changes**: Zinc oxide enterprises' raw material inventory decreased as they mainly made rigid purchases at high zinc prices, and finished product inventory increased due to weak terminal demand [74]. 4. Inventory Analysis - **Social Inventory**: As of July 24, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 90,200 tons, showing an increase. The high zinc price at the beginning of the week suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 6,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week [79]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of July 25, the SHFE inventory was 59,400 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 115,800 tons, showing a decrease [82]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: In June 2025, the production was 585,000 tons, the import volume was 25,000 tons, the export volume was 200 tons, the apparent consumption was 610,000 tons, the actual consumption was 586,000 tons, and the monthly supply - demand balance was 24,000 tons [88].

| 购金和地缘政治风险难解，或使贵金属价格下跌空间有限，建议投资者逢回调布局多单为主；伦敦金关注3150-3250附近支撑位及3600-3700 | | --- | | 附近压力位，沪金730-760附近支撑位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦锅35-37附近支撑位及40-48附近压力位，沪银8600-9000附近支撑位及 | | 9500-10000附近压力位。(观点评分:1) | | 史表声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈科，本公司对这些信息的推 | | 南佳和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何支化。我们已为求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、培论和建议及失参考，不构成任何投资建议。敌 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货设资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有、未经书面许可、任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如 | | 引用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货、且不得对本报告进行有停原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险， ...

| 碳酸锂日评20250728:情绪扩大扰动 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 79400.00 | 76500.00 | 69880.00 | 2.900.00 | | | | | 连一合约 | 80520.00 | 76680.00 | 69960.00 | 3.840.00 | 收盘价 | 79160.00 | 75000.00 | 69000.00 | 连二合约 | 收盘价 | 4,160.00 | | | | | 79160.00 | 75000.00 | 68620.00 | 收盘价 | 4,160.00 | 连三合约 | Al | ~ | 收盘价 | 80520.00 | 76680.00 | 69960.00 | 3,840.00 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250728: 焦煤回落, 尿素或有补跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 | 单位 | 7月25日 | 7月24日 | | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1807.00 1790.00 1690.00 | 1796.00 1810.00 1670.00 | 11.00 -20.00 20.00 | 0.61% -1.10% 1.20% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1822.00 | 1804.00 | 18.00 | 1.00% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1803.00 | 1785.00 | 18.00 | 1.01% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1810.00 | 1830.00 | -20.00 | -1.09% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 178 ...