Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Lead Market**: The lead price is under pressure due to potential weakening of raw - material support and improved supply tightness. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [1]. - **Zinc Market**: The zinc market fundamentals are weak in the short - term, and the zinc price may be under pressure. In the medium - term, the zinc price has some support at the lower end. It is advisable to hold previous short positions and use range - bound trading strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Lead Market Data** - **Price**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 17,250 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price is 2,027 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51, up 0.12% [1]. - **Spread**: Shanghai lead basis is - 150 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount of 28.21 dollars/ton; LME3 - 15 lead is at a discount of 85.10 dollars/ton, up 1.20 dollars [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 46,208 lots, down 16.09%; open interest is 63,895 lots, down 7.57%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 0.72, down 9.22% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME lead inventory is 264,475 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 31,206 tons, down 4.54% [1]. **Zinc Market Data** - **Price**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,350 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price is 2,990.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 7.50, up 0.49% [1]. - **Spread**: Shanghai zinc basis is - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; LME0 - 3 zinc is at a premium of 129.76 dollars/ton; LME3 - 15 zinc is at a premium of 40.72 dollars/ton, down 3.38 dollars [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Futures active contract trading volume is 91,247 lots, down 2.38%; open interest is 67,487 lots, down 18.02%; trading volume to open interest ratio is 1.35, up 19.09% [1]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory is 45,075 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 75,314 tons, down 1.92% [1]. **Industry News** - **Lead**: Endeavor silver - zinc mine restarted ore hoisting and grinding operations on November 15th and shifted to continuous shift production. Silver - lead concentrate transportation is ongoing for a scheduled shipment in early December [1]. - **Zinc**: Multiple polymetallic ore mining and beneficiation projects in Dong Ujimqin Banner, Inner Mongolia, have obtained construction land approvals and are ready to start, while the relevant procedures of the Diyanchinaamu molybdenum polymetallic ore project are progressing orderly [1]. **Fundamentals Analysis** - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the start - up of primary lead fluctuates slightly. The start - up of secondary lead is affected by different factors in different regions. Demand from lead - acid battery enterprises has increased [1]. - **Zinc**: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc ores, and the domestic ore supply is tight with processing fees expected to decline further. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month, while demand is weak [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. It is recommended to stop profit on sold options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 futures prices in Shandong, Shanxi, and UR05, UR09 futures prices had different changes on November 19 compared to November 18. For example, UR01 in Shandong increased by 1 yuan/ton (0.06%), and UR05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton (-0.06%) [1] - Domestic spot prices in Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu also rose. For instance, the price in Henan increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.24%) [1] 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 21 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread increased by 2 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Costs and Prices - Upstream coal prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. Downstream prices of compound fertilizers in Shandong and Henan remained stable, while the melamine price in Shandong increased by 34 yuan/ton (0.67%) [1] 3.4 Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1675 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1660 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1665 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 249089 lots [1] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Sell options to stop profit, and pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the medium and long term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand situation in the industrial silicon market remains weak, and the silicon price is under pressure. For polysilicon, the downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising, which restricts the upside space of the futures market [1] Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.57% to 9,390 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: The southwest production area has entered the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises stopped production at the end of October, and the overall production in November is expected to drop below 400,000 tons. The north has a slight increase in furnace operation [1] - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises are reducing production, and the demand for industrial silicon may decline. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low prices is limited [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The current supply - demand situation remains weak, and there is pressure on the silicon price. The trading strategy is to operate within a range, and pay attention to the registration of new warehouse receipts [1] Polysilicon - **Price Information**: N - type dense material remained flat at 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feeding material rose 0.29% to 52.30 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 4.63% to 54,625 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply Situation**: Silicon material enterprises are reducing production, but with new capacity coming on stream, the output in October may increase slightly, and it is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons in November [1] - **Demand Situation**: The polysilicon market is trading lightly, with few new transactions. The downstream is resistant to high - priced resources, waiting for industry policy guidance [1] - **Investment Strategy**: The downstream restocking willingness is limited, and there is pressure for the spot price to continue rising. The trading strategy is to go long on dips before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, and pay attention to protecting profits for existing long positions [1] Industry News - Yunnan Energy Investment won the bid for the Dazhushan Wind Farm Project in Huize County, Yunnan, with an expected installed capacity of 25,000 kilowatts [1] - Germany's new photovoltaic installed capacity in October was 1,145 megawatts. The installed capacity of ground - mounted photovoltaic systems exceeded that of rooftop systems in October, while the opposite was true in September. The demand for rooftop systems continued to decline [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2601 contract will experience low - level fluctuations. The core contradiction of methanol currently is that demand is difficult to increase in the short term, while supply pressure both in reality and expectation is continuously strengthened, pushing down spot and futures prices. This contradiction cannot be resolved in the 01 contract. With high port inventories, lack of restocking motivation from downstream, and high import expectations from November to December, supply pressure cannot be effectively alleviated this year. For the 01 contract, futures unilateral operation is not recommended, and it is suggested to sell out - of - the - money put options based on volatility. The report is relatively optimistic about the far - month contracts as the supply pressure may be over - exaggerated, and if the supply - side expectation reverses, it may provide good rebound momentum for methanol [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 increased from 2029.00 yuan/ton to 2030.00 yuan/ton, a 0.05% increase; MA05 rose from 2145.00 yuan/ton to 2153.00 yuan/ton, a 0.37% increase; MA09 increased from 2200.00 yuan/ton to 2204.00 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions decreased. For example, the price in Hubei dropped from 2140.00 yuan/ton to 2100.00 yuan/ton, a 1.87% decrease; in Guangdong, it fell from 2025.00 yuan/ton to 2010.00 yuan/ton, a 0.74% decrease [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from - 14.00 yuan/ton to - 27.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.50 yuan/ton [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 and Datong Q5500 remained unchanged at 610.00 yuan/ton and 690.00 yuan/ton respectively, while the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 680.00 yuan/ton to 682.50 yuan/ton, a 0.37% increase [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1] 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 100.30 yuan/ton to 80.30 yuan/ton, a 19.94% decrease; natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 1310.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: Profits of some downstream products changed. For example, the profit of acetic acid increased from 461.72 yuan/ton to 481.72 yuan/ton, a 4.33% increase; the profit of MTBE decreased from 301.88 yuan/ton to 259.40 yuan/ton, a 14.07% decrease [1] 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: For far - month arriving Middle - East methanol cargoes, the reference negotiation price is - 4 - 1.8%, with some factories reluctant to sell at low prices and buyers' bid at - 4 - 3.5%. Both sides are in a price tug - of - war [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - East country plans to shut down for maintenance in early December, and two other plants with a total capacity of 3.3 million tons plan to shut down at the end of this month or early December. Attention should be paid to later weather and raw material supply [1]

研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 | 近两周走势 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-11 | 较昨日变化 | 期货近月合约 | 119050.00 | -1,810.00 | 收盘价 | 114840.00 | 116650.00 | 1 | 8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 115000.00 | -1.750.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 116750.00 | 119380.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 115220.00 | 116950.00 | 119530.00 | -1,730.00 | | | | | -1,720.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 115460.00 | 117180.00 | 119740.00 | 114840.00 | 116750.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's valuation is still relatively low despite a recent rebound, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. However, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage - enterprises to enter the market. The low - valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of supply - demand surplus, but the price is supported at a low level. The report suggests selling options to take profits and paying attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01: The closing price on November 18 was 1,662 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - UR05: The closing price on November 18 was 1,736 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.06% from the previous day [1]. - UR09: The closing price on November 18 was 1,747 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan or 0.46% from the previous day [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: The price on November 18 was 1,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day [1]. - Shanxi: The price on November 18 was 1,490 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.68% from the previous day [1]. - Henan: The price on November 18 was 1,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan or 0.63% from the previous day [1]. - Hebei: The price on November 18 was 1,630 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.24% from the previous day [1]. - Northeast: The price on November 18 was 1,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.21% from the previous day [1]. - Jiangsu: The price on November 18 was 1,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 1.27% from the previous day [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: The value on November 18 was - 126 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan from the previous day [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: The value on November 18 was - 74 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous day [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 930 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Shandong: 3,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Compound fertilizer (45%S) price in Henan: 2,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan or 0.79% from the previous day [1]. - Melamine price in Shandong: 5,093 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Important Information The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1,655 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,671 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,653 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,662 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,662 yuan/ton. The position volume was 250,957 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Sell options to take profits and pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term [1].

| 贵金属日评20251119: ADP周度新增就业人数为负支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-18 | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-12 | 收盘价 | -27.24 | 918. 52 | 945. 76 | -10. 94 | 929. 46 | | | | | 成交量 | 260377.00 | -165,869.00 | 236915.00 | 402784.00 | -23, 462. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 101723.00 | 90872. 00 | 124540.00 | -10,851.00 | -33, 668. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 90426. 00 | 90426. 00 | 89616.00 | 0. 00 | 810. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, the weakening of digital currency prices, global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks may support the rebound of precious metal prices in the short - term and provide medium - to long - term support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 930.22 yuan/gram, with a change of - 28.76 yuan compared to the previous period. The trading volume was - 22,326.00, and the inventory was 90,426.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,697.00 yuan/ten - gram, with a change of - 273.00 yuan. The trading volume was 623,148.00, and the inventory was 563,671.00 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX International Gold**: The closing price of the active contract was 4067.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 22.30 dollars. The trading volume was 231,322.00, and the inventory was 37,224,744.19 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX International Silver**: The closing price of the active contract was 50.54 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.13 dollars. The trading volume was 75,851.00, and the inventory was 465,535,121.46 (in troy ounces) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 was 232,000. The average weekly reduction in private - sector employment in the US for the four - week period ending November 1 was 2,500 [1]. - Trump has selected candidates for the Fed chair, and the US Treasury Secretary said the candidates have been narrowed down to five [1]. 3.3 Long - Short Logic - The negative weekly new employment figures from the US ADP private - sector, the uncertainty of future expectations due to upcoming US economic data, Japan's economic stimulus plan, and the weakening of digital currency prices may lead to a rebound in precious metal prices [1]. - Global debt expansion, fiscal deficit expectations, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the medium - to long - term [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - In the short - term, lightly go long on the main contracts at low prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3850 - 3950 and the resistance level around 4180 - 4384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 870 - 890 and the resistance level around 960 - 1000. For London silver, note the support level around 38 - 45 and the resistance level around 52 - 55. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 10,000 - 11,000 and the resistance level around 12,400 - 13,000 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report industry investment rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core view of the report - The current bottom of urea prices may gradually become clear. Urea's low valuation reflects the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but price support exists at low levels due to factors such as new export quotas and winter reserve demand. The report suggests taking profit on sold put - options and paying long - term attention to buying opportunities on dips [1] 3. Summary by relevant catalog Urea futures prices (closing prices) - UR01: 1662.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - UR05: 1736.00 yuan/ton on November 18, down 1.00 yuan (-0.06%) from November 17 [1] - UR09: 1747.00 yuan/ton on November 18, down 8.00 yuan (-0.46%) from November 17 [1] Domestic spot prices (small - granules) - Shandong: 1610.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.26%) from November 17 [1] - Shanxi: 1490.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 10.00 yuan (0.68%) from November 17 [1] - Henan: 1610.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 10.00 yuan (0.63%) from November 17 [1] - Hebei: 1630.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.24%) from November 17 [1] - Northeast: 1670.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.21%) from November 17 [1] - Jiangsu: 1600.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (1.27%) from November 17 [1] Basis and spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 126.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 21.00 yuan from November 17 [1] - 01 - 05 spread: - 74.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 1.00 yuan from November 17 [1] Upstream costs - Anthracite coal price in Henan: 1030.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Anthracite coal price in Shanxi: 930.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] Downstream prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong: 3000.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Compound fertilizer (45%S) in Henan: 2550.00 yuan/ton on November 18, up 20.00 yuan (0.79%) from November 17 [1] - Melamine price in Shandong: 5093.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Melamine price in Jiangsu: 5200.00 yuan/ton on November 18, unchanged from the previous day [1] Important information - Urea futures main contract 2601 had an opening price of 1655 yuan/ton, a high of 1671 yuan/ton, a low of 1653 yuan/ton, a closing price of 1662 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 1662 yuan/ton on November 18. Its持仓量 was 250957 hands [1] Trading strategy - Take profit on sold put - options, and pay long - term attention to buying opportunities on dips [1]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market transactions are slow. The power demand has shown signs of peaking, and the game between bulls and bears has intensified. The trading is overcrowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a sharp rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high prices. [1] Summary According to Related Data Carbonate Lithium Futures - **Price Changes**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to November 17, 2025. For example, the near - month contract closed at 93,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,720 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 1,487,724 lots (+120,805), and the open interest was 484,357 lots (-78,597). [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased by 342 tons to 26,611 tons. [1] Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,056 US dollars/ton, an increase of 32 US dollars/ton. [1] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 87,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. [1] Downstream Product Prices - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged. For example, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 142,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. [1] - **Anode Materials**: The price of artificial graphite (high - end) remained unchanged. [1] - **Electrolyte**: The prices of electrolytes for different applications remained unchanged. [1] - **Cobalt - Related Products**: The prices of cobalt - related products such as electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate remained unchanged. [1] Inventory Situation - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons last week. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other parts increased. [1] News and Policies - **Futures Transaction Fee Adjustment**: Starting from the trading time on November 20, 2025, the trading fee standard of the LC2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures is adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount, and the intraday flat - today trading fee standard is also adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount. [1] - **Sigma Lithium Production Suspension**: Sigma Lithium suspended the production of its flagship project in Brazil from late September to October to upgrade mining equipment. The company plans to complete the expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity from 245,000 tons/year to 520,000 tons/year. [1]