Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the raw material shortage problem remains unsolved, with some secondary lead smelters reducing production due to insufficient raw materials. The demand is in the off - season. Cost support and weak demand are in a tug - of - war. Short - term lead prices are expected to be in a wide - range consolidation, and subsequent macro uncertainties should be continuously monitored [1]. - For zinc, the macro sentiment is stable and positive, but the fundamentals of SHFE zinc are weak. Short - term zinc prices are expected to be in a wide - range consolidation. In the medium - to - long - term, TC still has room to rise, and the center of zinc prices may move down. Subsequent macro sentiment disturbances should be continuously monitored [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day. The closing price of the main SHFE lead futures contract was 16,995 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [1]. - The SHFE lead basis was - 245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract was 42,622 lots, up 47.20%, and the open interest was 33,309 lots, down 0.43% [1]. - The LME lead inventory was 251,800 tons, with no change. The SHFE - LME lead price ratio was 8.58, up 1.13% [1]. Industry News - As of May 12, a large lead smelter in Central China will conduct a one - week regular maintenance on its waste battery disassembly production line, and the procurement of waste lead - acid batteries will remain normal [1]. - On May 9, Australian mining company South32 announced that its Hermosa mine project in Arizona reached a key approval node, and the US Forest Service (USFS) officially released the environmental impact assessment draft of the project. The construction of Hermosa has been 40% completed [1]. Fundamental Analysis - The production of primary lead is stable with a slight increase. For secondary lead, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has been rising, and recyclers have limited supplies. Some secondary lead smelters have reduced or stopped production due to cost inversion, and the operating rate has significantly declined [1]. - The demand is in the off - season, and downstream purchasing is weak, providing limited support for lead prices [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous day. The closing price of the main SHFE zinc futures contract was 22,490 yuan/ton, up 1.35% [1]. - The trading volume of the active SHFE zinc futures contract was 229,910 lots, up 64.20%, and the open interest was 118,030 lots, down 0.96% [1]. - The LME zinc inventory was 169,850 tons, with no change. The SHFE - LME zinc price ratio was 8.48, up 1.35% [1]. Industry News - As of May 12, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons compared with May 6 and an increase of 0.22 million tons compared with May 8 [1]. - On May 11, Pan American announced a final agreement to acquire all the issued common shares of MAG Silver through an arrangement plan with a total consideration of approximately $2.1 billion. After the transaction, MAG shareholders will hold about 14% of Pan American. MAG Silver holds a 44% stake in the Juanicipio silver - lead - zinc mine [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are continuously rising. The limitation of raw material shortage on smelter production has weakened, and the cost - side support has decreased. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the production increase trend is obvious [1]. - After the May Day holiday, production - cut enterprises have actively resumed production, but the terminal demand has not improved. In different sectors, the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has significantly increased, but downstream purchasing is mainly for rigid demand; the electronic orders of the die - casting zinc alloy sector are good, but the demand for traditional hardware accessories is weak; the export orders of zinc oxide are uncertain due to the EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires [1].

| | | | 甲醇日评20250513: 关税谈判好于预期 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/5/12 | 2025/5/9 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2334.00 | 2290.00 | (绝对值) 44.00 | (相对值) 1.92% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2412.50 | 2397.50 | 15.00 | 0.63% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2338.00 2270.00 | 2303.00 2227.00 | 35.00 43.00 | 1.52% 1.93% | | | 甲醇现货价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2380.00 | 2365.00 | 15.00 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2360.00 | 2350.00 | 10.00 | 0.43% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | 0.63% | | 及基差 | ( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material end strongly supports the lead price as the global lead concentrate supply has long - term incremental expectations but short - term uncertainties, and the supply of scrap batteries is tight [3]. - On the supply side, primary lead supply is stable with a slight increase due to the resumption of previously - shut - down refineries, while secondary lead production cuts are expanding because of raw material shortages and high costs [3]. - The demand side is in the off - season, with battery distributors and producers being cautious in lead ingot purchases, and spot transactions moving towards discount trading [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, secondary lead producers hold back goods or quote high due to cost pressures, and inventory accumulation may slow down as production cuts expand. Primary lead holders actively sell [3]. - In the short term, the lead price is expected to remain range - bound between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and future attention should be paid to the impact of raw materials and the macro - environment on the lead price [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.89% to 16,625 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 0.53% to 16,805 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic trading) increased by 1.54% to 1,981.5 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Stable Operation, Loose Supply of Primary Lead - The processing fees for domestic and imported lead concentrates remained flat, and the smelter's profit fluctuated slightly. As of April 30, the smelter's profit (excluding by - product revenues) was - 37.48 yuan/ton [32]. - The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 67.35%. Some refineries have maintenance plans [33][39]. - The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was 49,995 tons, with a slight increase compared to the previous period [40]. 3.3 Shortage of Raw Materials, Further Expansion of Secondary Lead Production Cuts - As of May 9, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous period. The supply of scrap batteries was tight, and the procurement prices of secondary lead refineries were high [48]. - As of May 9, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 653 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 878 yuan/ton [54]. - As of May 9, the raw material inventory of secondary lead was 105,900 tons, and the finished product inventory was 17,400 tons. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased [58]. - The secondary lead operating rate decreased by 4.81 percentage points to 37.65%. The weekly output decreased, and some refineries were forced to shut down due to raw material shortages [61]. 3.4 Post - holiday Resumption of Work and Production, Off - season Situation Remains Unchanged - The lead battery operating rate increased by 9.73 percentage points to 64.79%. After the May Day holiday, battery enterprises resumed work, but the off - season situation continued, and new orders were weak [71]. 3.5 Import and Export Profit Window Closed - As of April 30, the refined lead export loss was about 2,600 yuan/ton. As of May 9, the import profit was - 623.9 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [83]. 3.6 Social Inventory Accumulation - As of May 8, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 47,500 tons, an increase in inventory. Weak demand and the expansion of the futures - spot price difference led to an increase in the willingness of holders to deliver to the warehouse [89]. - As of May 9, SHFE refined lead inventory increased to 49,500 tons, and LME inventory decreased to 253,400 tons [92]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of lead from February 2024 to March 2025 [93].

| M | E | G | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新 | 单 | 位 | 值 | 前 | ...

风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ 王江楠（F03108382，Z0021543），联系电话：010-82295006 | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/13 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/5/12 | 美元/桶 | 61.95 | 61.02 | 1.52% | | | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/5/12 | 美元/桶 | 64.96 | 63.91 | 1.64% | | 上 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/吨 | 569.00 | 554.50 | 2.61% | | 游 | | | | | | | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/吨 | 671.50 | 666.50 | 0.75% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/5/9 | 美元/吨 ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | | | | 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250513：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/13 | 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | 近期趋势 | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,000.00 | -0.55% | | | 工业硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 8,320.00 | 1.40% | | | 基差（华东553#-期货主力） | | 元/吨 | 680.00 | -165.00 | | | N型多晶硅料 | | 元/千克 | 38.00 | 0.00% | | | 多晶硅期现价格 | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 38,450.00 | 1.64% | | | | 基差 | 元/吨 | -450.00 | -620.00 | | | 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | 元/吨 | 9,000.00 | -0.55% | | | 不通氧553#（黄埔 ...

黑色金属周报-铁矿 谈判成果积极 矿价反弹修复基差 2025年5月12日 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 谈判成果积极 矿价反弹修复基差 上周铁矿现货价格松动，下跌幅度在3-10元不等。具体来看，卡粉（-5），PB粉（-4），BRBF （-6），金布巴（-3），超特粉 （-10），mac（-7）。块矿方面，PB块（-5） ，纽曼块（-9），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（-7） 。普氏62%指数方面，截止5月9日，普 氏指数收于98.6美元，周环比回升1.7美元，目前按汇率7.24折算人民币大致在832元左右。仓单方面，截止5月9日，最优交割品为BRBF 粉，目前最新报价在765元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为769元/吨左右，09铁矿贴水现货，除BRBF粉之外，次优交割品为NM粉(772)。 库存方面：近期中国47港铁矿石近端供应环比回落，处于近三年同期最高水平。根据Mysteel47港铁矿石到港量数据显示，本期值 为2634.4万吨，周环比减少45万吨；5月到港量周均值为2634.4万吨，环比4月增加108万吨，同比去年5月增加124万吨。今年以来，47 港铁矿石到港量累计同比减少2232万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - After the holiday, PX prices rebounded after a decline due to improved macro - atmosphere and supply contraction. The strong oil market provided cost support, and expected maintenance of domestic reforming and PX devices further pushed up prices [9]. - PTA prices first fell then rose, following crude oil fluctuations. After the May Day holiday, PTA prices initially declined due to the drop in crude oil prices but later rebounded as geopolitical tensions drove up oil prices. With many PTA device maintenance and high - load operation of downstream polyester, PTA inventory decreased, and the price rose due to the resonance of fundamentals and cost [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil: After the Sino - US talks, oil prices are expected to be strong, but the risk lies in Middle - East situation disturbances. PX: Multiple domestic reforming devices have parking plans, increasing the possibility of production cuts in supporting PX devices. Low PXN also increases the expectation of maintenance. PTA: There will still be many device maintenance in May, and the operating rate will be at a low level for the year. Polyester: The short - term operating rate is estimated to be around 90%, with limited announced maintenance plans, especially for large polyester manufacturers. The rigid demand remains good. Weaving: The开机 rate has increased, and the probability of short - term negative feedback is low [10]. - Overall: PX is expected to operate strongly in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton; PTA is expected to operate strongly in the range of 4,550 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Strategy recommendation: Long positions can gradually take profits [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - **PX Futures**: On May 9, the closing price of the PX main contract was 6,472 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton (4.29%) from April 29. The settlement price was 6,446 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton (3.37%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was - 233 yuan/ton, and the average domestic PX spot price was 6,091 yuan/ton, up 19.33 yuan/ton (0.32%) from the previous period [15][16]. - **PX Spot**: The highest weekly transaction price was 785 dollars/ton, and the lowest was 737 dollars/ton. The CFR China weekly average price was 763 dollars/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week; the FOB Korea weekly average price was 739 dollars/ton, up 1.73% from the previous week [18][20]. 3.1.2 PTA - **PTA Futures**: On May 9, the closing price of the PTA main contract was 4,582 yuan/ton, up 142 yuan/ton (3.20%) from April 29. The settlement price was 4,568 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton (2.73%) from April 29. From May 6 - 9, the average basis of the main contract was 98.67 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 582.5 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars/ton (1.75%) from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,597.5 yuan/ton, up 67.5 yuan/ton (1.49%) from the previous period [23][26]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - **Domestic PX Devices**: Many domestic PX devices have load - reduction or maintenance situations. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 60% load, and Sheng Hong Refining & Chemical reduces the load of its 200 - ton devices to 70% in early May [31]. - **Asian PX Devices**: Some Asian PX devices have maintenance or load - change situations. For example, Pertamina in Indonesia has been shut down since January, and its restart time is postponed [32]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Many PTA devices are under maintenance in May, such as the 150 - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 250 - ton device of Honggang Petrochemical. The weekly operating rate has decreased by 2.53% [37][39]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - **Crude Oil**: Optimistic sentiment has returned to the market, and the prices of European and American crude oil futures have increased by more than 4% this week. On May 9, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 61.02 dollars/barrel, up 2.73 dollars/barrel from May 2, and that of Brent crude oil was 63.91 dollars/barrel, up 2.62 dollars/barrel from May 2 [44][46]. - **Naphtha**: The blending demand for European naphtha has increased, reducing the expected volume of East - West naphtha arbitrage. The weekly average CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 557.30 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 60.11 dollars/ton [52][54]. 3.3.2 Supply - **PX Processing Margin**: The short - process economic efficiency of PX has significantly recovered. The weekly average of PXN was 209.44 yuan/ton, with a 13.45% change from the previous period. The PX - MX spread has also increased, but the overall cash - flow is still in a loss situation [57]. - **PTA Processing Fee**: The processing fee has significantly recovered, driven by device maintenance. In April, the PTA processing margin fluctuated widely, and the spot processing margin expanded to around 500 yuan/ton at the end of the month [61]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of PTA has decreased. As of May 9, it was 483.2 tons, down 14.5 tons from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories have increased by 0.08 days, while those of polyester factories have decreased by 0.25 days [66][67]. 3.3.3 Demand - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products have generally increased. The average market prices of semi - dull POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F have increased by 1.46%, 0.65%, and 1.33% respectively from the previous reporting period. The average weekly sales of polyester products from May 6 - 9 were estimated to be 60%, and the average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.42%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 61.18% [73][80]. - **Weaving**: The开机 rate of weaving factories has gradually increased. As of May 8, the开机 rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, circular looms in Xiaoshao, warp - knitting machines in Haining, and warp - knitting machines in Changshu have all increased [88].

Group 1: Report Core Views - In April 2025, international crude oil prices fell sharply after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and recovered with little success, with WTI falling below $60/barrel. PX, PTA, and MEG were all affected by tariffs and costs, running at low levels [3]. - For PX, it is expected to be driven by the resonance of cost and fundamentals, with a price range of 6400 - 6800 yuan/ton. In April - July 2025, due to the concentrated maintenance of Asian PX devices, supply decreased, but PTA device maintenance led to a smooth destocking in April. PXN's low - level operation provides support, but it's hard to form long - term support [3]. - For PTA, support comes from supply - demand destocking, with a price range of 4500 - 5000 yuan/ton. The crude oil price is expected to be volatile and weak. In May, PTA will continue to destock, and the processing fee has improved [3]. - For MEG, without clear news guidance, the price range is expected to be 4100 - 4500 yuan/ton. Domestic supply will be affected by device maintenance, and demand from polyester has shown signs of improvement, with inventory being destocked [3]. Group 2: Summary by Sector PX - **Market Review**: In April 2025, PX prices were in a slump after the collapse of cost support. Even the entry into the maintenance season couldn't reverse the panic. After Trump's tariff adjustment, PX prices rebounded with destocking. The monthly average price of PX in China's main port in April was $756.08/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $82.27/ton (- 9.81%) [14][16][21]. - **Maintenance Benefits**: In April, PX operating loads continued to decline. Many devices were under maintenance, and some had planned maintenance in the future. The domestic average operating rate in April was 68.74%, and the total domestic supply was 351.19 tons, a decrease of 38.82 tons from the previous month [26]. - **PXN and PX - MX Spreads**: In April, naphtha prices fluctuated, and PXN narrowed and then rebounded slightly. The average value of PXN was $184.73/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82%. The PX - MX spread was slightly compressed, with an average of $67.75/ton [37][41]. - **Destocking**: In March 2025, PX imports increased, and the main import sources were South Korea, Japan, and China Taiwan. In April, due to device maintenance and uncertain demand from PTA, PX was expected to have a narrow - range destocking pattern [45][48]. PTA - **Market Review**: Affected by US equal - tariff policies, PTA prices fell continuously to around 4000 yuan. After the tariff reduction, prices stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The average price in April was 4442.64 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 402.46 yuan/ton (- 8.31%) [49][50]. - **Processing Fees and Device Maintenance**: The average PTA processing fee in April was 345.91 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 43.84 yuan/ton (13.02%). The average operating rate was 77.60%, a slight decrease from the previous month. Many devices were under maintenance [51][62]. - **Inventory Reduction**: In April, PTA continued to destock. The estimated total production was 586 tons, consumption was 584.3 tons, and exports were 34 tons. The destocking volume was about 32.30 tons [67]. - **Export Decline**: In March 2025, PTA exports decreased significantly, with a month - on - month decrease of 24.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 36.62%. The main reason was the new PTA device in Turkey [72]. MEG - **Market Review**: In April 2025, MEG prices first fell and then rebounded. Affected by US tariffs and crude oil price drops, the price bottomed below 4000 yuan. Later, with the easing of trade frictions, prices rebounded. The monthly average price was 4270.80 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 248.44 yuan/ton [77]. - **Device Maintenance**: In April, MEG device maintenance increased. The average operating rate of oil - based MEG was 64.26%, an increase of 2.45% from the previous month; the coal - based MEG was 53.61%, a decrease of 9.30% from the previous month [80]. - **Port Shipping and Inventory**: In April, Zhangjiagang's main port's average daily shipping volume was around 6805 tons. The port inventory was high, and the destocking of social inventory was mainly in the implicit part. As of April 30, the social inventory was 182.56 tons, a decrease of 4.51 tons from the previous month [95]. - **Import Impact**: In March 2025, MEG imports increased. Affected by Sino - US high - tariff policies, it was difficult for US goods to enter the Chinese market, and the possibility of trans - importing from South Korea was small [103]. Polyester - **Market Review**: In April 2025, polyester prices first fell and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, affected by tariffs and raw material price drops, prices fell. At the end of the month, with the easing of trade frictions and the rebound of raw material prices, prices rebounded [116]. - **Production and Sales**: In April, the production and sales of polyester were significantly differentiated. In the first three weeks, it was light, and in the last week, it was booming. The average monthly production and sales of polyester filament were 51.86%, a month - on - month increase of 5.62% [130]. - **Inventory Changes**: In April, polyester inventory first increased and then decreased. At the end of the month, due to downstream speculative demand, inventory was destocked. As of April 30, the mainstream inventory of polyester filament POY was 8 - 18 days [137]. - **Export Growth**: In March 2025, the exports of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips all increased. From January to March, the cumulative exports also showed an increasing trend [149]. Textile and Apparel Consumption - **Jiangsu and Zhejiang Weaving**: As of April 30, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving was 61.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.96%. Before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the fabric market improved locally, but after the festival, it was affected by tariffs, and the market was sluggish. At the end of the month, the market improved slightly [168]. - **First - Quarter Exports**: In the first quarter of 2025, the cumulative exports of textile and apparel increased by 1% year - on - year, turning positive from negative. In March, exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. However, the US tariff policy will seriously impact China's textile and apparel export market [172].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - sentiment is generally stable and positive with eased trade frictions and expected domestic monetary policies. The raw material supply is expected to be loose, and the TC increase space in May is limited. The zinc price is expected to be weak, ranging from 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. If the zinc price rebounds with the macro - sentiment, short positions can be considered. Continuous attention should be paid to the macro and downstream consumption situations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.87% to 22,700 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price dropped by 1.60% to 22,190 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose by 2.95% to 2,653.5 dollars/ton [15]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate Situation - **Port Inventory**: As of May 9, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 130,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 390,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons [28]. - **Profit**: As of May 8, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,774 yuan/metal ton. In March, the zinc concentrate import volume was 359,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.09% and a year - on - year increase of 47.16% [35]. - **TC**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee increased slightly. As of May 9, the average import TC was 40 dollars/dry ton, and the average domestic TC was 3,500 yuan/metal ton [3]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Situation - **Production**: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises fluctuated slightly. As of May 8, the production profit was - 494 yuan/ton. In April, the output increased to 555,400 tons. In May, the output is expected to remain stable [43]. - **Import**: The Shanghai - London ratio rose, and the import profit window opened. As of May 9, the import profit of refined zinc was 66.05 yuan/ton. From January to March 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 1.01 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 43,000 tons [47]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Situation - **Galvanizing**: The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.26 percentage points to 60.87%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Terminal orders from special - high - voltage projects were released, but export orders decreased due to tariff uncertainties [55][58]. - **Die - Casting Zinc Alloy**: The price of zinc alloy declined. The operating rate increased by 5.59 percentage points to 54.6%. The raw material inventory decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. Electronic product orders were okay, but traditional hardware and export orders were weak [66][70][73]. - **Zinc Oxide**: The price of zinc oxide decreased. The operating rate increased by 1.16 percentage points to 59.73%. The raw material and finished product inventories decreased. Rubber - grade and feed - grade orders weakened, ceramic - grade orders were stable, and export was uncertain due to anti - dumping investigations [81][84][87]. 3.5 Inventory Situation - **Social Inventory**: As of May 8, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 72,300 tons, an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease [94]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of May 9, the SHFE inventory was 47,100 tons, a decrease. The LME inventory was 170,300 tons, a decrease [97]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from January 2024 to March 2025, with some months in short supply and others in surplus [98].