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镍与不锈钢日评:成本支撑走弱,不锈钢逢高沽空-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:40
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Nickel Market**: On October 30, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened high and closed low. The spot market had decent trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: On October 30, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated downward. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening, so the upside potential of stainless - steel prices is expected to be limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 99,113 hands (-10,149), and the open interest was 107,897 hands (-1,789). LME nickel prices also declined, with the LME 3 - month nickel official price down by $105 [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE nickel inventories increased, LME nickel inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased on October 30 compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel futures active contract was 105,051 hands (+11,210), and the open interest was 89,093 hands (-9,130) [2]. - **Supply - side Situation**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of the 300 - series decreased [1]. - **Demand - side Situation**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost - side Situation**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: SHFE stainless - steel inventories remained flat. Last week, the social inventory of the 300 - series was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The recommended trading strategy is to short on rallies [1].
镍与不锈钢日评:成本支撑走弱不锈钢逢高沽空-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: On October 29, the main nickel contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Stainless steel: On October 29, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the upside space for stainless steel is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: On October 29, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 120300 yuan/ton, 121380 yuan/ton, 121560 yuan/ton, and 121710 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 950 yuan/ton, 980 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 960 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 109262 hands (-47034), and the open interest was 109686 hands (-5360). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15320 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122100 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of nickel beans was 123300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, the amount of nickel ore arriving at the port last week decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in October increased, and Indonesian production increased, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: On October 29, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 93841 hands (-3249), and the open interest was 98223 hands (-2030) [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, stainless - steel production in October increased, and the production of the 300 - series decreased. In terms of demand, the terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 612700 tons (-9000) [1]. News and Information - According to the statistics of each sub - association of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, the output of industrial silicon in new - energy metals was 328000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%; the output of electrolytic nickel was 347000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.6%; the output of refined cobalt was 134000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%; and the output of lithium carbonate was 588000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.0% [1].
甲醇日评:延续震荡偏弱行情-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View - Methanol continued its weak and volatile market. The upward driving force for methanol in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current strategy is to remain on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: MA01 increased by 16 yuan/ton (0.71%) to 2257 yuan/ton; MA05 rose by 18 yuan/ton (0.78%) to 2321 yuan/ton; MA09 went up by 14 yuan/ton (0.62%) to 2289 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: Prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.44%) to 2240 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions such as Guangdong, Shaanxi, and Sichuan - Chongqing remained unchanged [1] - **Cost and Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-4.33%) to 220.70 yuan/ton; Northwest MTO profit dropped by 20 yuan/ton (-86.96%) to 3 yuan/ton; East China MTO profit decreased by 12.50 yuan/ton (-1.75%) to -727.07 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose slightly, opening at 2234 yuan/ton, closing at 2257 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 585,627 lots and an open interest of 1,197,415 lots, showing a decrease in both volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign**: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, and a previously shut - down 1.65 - million - ton plant has restarted at 80% capacity. The total estimated methanol loading volume in this Middle - Eastern country this month is around 8 million tons [1] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Long - Short Logic**: Methanol prices are relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices. The short - term upward driving force is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream replenishment demand. The inventory turning point may occur around mid - November, and potential future drivers may come from supply - side reductions such as gas restrictions in Iran [1]
铅锌日评:沪铅高位回落,沪锌持续上行动力或不足-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 03:05
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For lead, after a significant increase, the lead price faced downward pressure due to weakened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, improved supply, and better refinery profits. It is expected to continue to decline, and the recommendation is to hold previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, although the zinc price has some support from macro - sentiment improvement and a tightened domestic ore supply pattern, due to weak domestic terminals, its upward momentum is insufficient, and the recommendation is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead Market - **Price Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai lead decreased by 0.03% to 17,350 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was not provided with a change percentage, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio decreased by 0.18% to 8.58 [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a slight fluctuation. A large - scale recycled lead refinery in the East China region is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of recycled refined lead in November, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation of lead - acid battery enterprises is okay, increasing demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc Market - **Price Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.18% to 22,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.29% to 22,365 yuan/ton. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 0.83% to 3,044.50 dollars/ton, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio increased by 0.55% to 7.35 [1]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,250 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 110.25 dollars/dry ton. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. The monthly output is expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [1]. Market News - A large - scale recycled lead refinery in the East China region started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of recycled refined lead in November [1]. - The LME plans to formulate permanent rules to restrict members with large positions in near - month contracts when inventory levels are low. The new rules require members with long - position sizes exceeding the total inventory to borrow metals back to the market at zero premium, and expand the regulatory scope for shorter - term contracts. The consultation will be open until November 21 [1].
工业硅、多晶硅日评:区间整理-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 02:05
| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20251031:区间整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近期趋势 2025/10/31 指标 | 单位 | 今值 | 变动 | | 不通氧553#(华东)平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 | 0.00% | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 9,155.00 | -0.16% | | 基差(华东553#-期货主力) | 元/吨 | 145.00 | 15.00 | | N型多晶硅料 | 元/千克 | 51.00 | 0.00% | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 54,950.00 | -0.07% | | 基差 | 元/吨 元/吨 | -3,950.00 | 40.00 | | 不通氧553#(华东)平均价格 不通氧553#(黄埔港)平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,300.00 9,350.00 | 0.00% 0.00% | | 不通氧553#(天津港)平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,200.00 | 0.00% | | 不通氧553#(昆明)平均价格 | 元/吨 | 9,350.00 | ...
宏源期货日刊-20251031
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:29
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core View of the Report There is no clear core view presented in the given content. It mainly lists a series of price, production, and profit - related data of various chemical products. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - The price of crude oil on October 30, 2025, was $572.63 per ton, up 0.26% from the previous value of $571.13 [1] - The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia on October 29, 2025, was $766 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The ex - factory price of ethylene oxide in East China on October 30, 2025, was $610 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price of methanol on October 30, 2025, was $2212.5 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The tax - included price of lignite in Inner Mongolia on October 30, 2025, was $290 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $4073 per ton, up 0.20% from the previous value of $4081 [1] - The closing price of the near - month contract on October 30, 2025, was $390 per ton, a significant change compared to other values [1] - The intermediate price of ethylene glycol in East China on October 30, 2025, was $4150 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price difference between the near - month and far - month contracts on October 30, 2025, was $70 per ton, compared to a previous value of $34 [1] - The comprehensive price of ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was $83 per ton, up $3 from the previous value [1] Production and Capacity Utilization - The operating rate of oil - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 66.57%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol on October 30, 2025, was 61.16%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of the PTA industry factory on October 30, 2025, was 89.28%, with no change from the previous value [1] - The capacity utilization rate of looms in the Zhejiang and Jiangsu PTA industries on October 30, 2025, was 72.28%, up 0.22% from the previous value of 72.06 [1] Profit Data - The after - tax gross profit per ton of a certain product on October 30, 2025, was $1510.24, compared to a previous value of $1529.09 [1] Index Data - The price index of polyester on October 30, 2025, was $8450 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of polyester staple fiber on October 30, 2025, was $6360 per ton, with no change from the previous value [1] - The price index of bottle - grade chips on October 30, 2025, was $5720 per ton, up 0.3% from the previous value of $5740 [1]
PX&PTA&PR早评-20251030
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 07:11
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX benefit will remain stable in the short - term, and attention should be paid to subsequent industry meetings. For PTA, if demand does not improve sustainably, the upward space will be limited. The PR market has sufficient supply and weak demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: As of October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX (CFR China Main Port) was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) remained unchanged, while the external price index was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1]. - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D remained unchanged at 6,950 yuan per ton; FDY150D remained unchanged at 6,700 yuan per ton; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chips remained unchanged at 5,605 yuan per ton; bottle - grade chips were 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2]. Spread Information - On October 29, 2025, the PXN spread was $246.88 per ton, up 0.61%; the PX - MX spread was $137.00 per ton, up 1.86%. The TA near - far month spread was - 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 4 yuan; the TA basis was - 101 yuan per ton, a decrease of 22 yuan. The PX basis was - 201 yuan per ton, a decrease of 108 yuan. The PR basis in the East China market was 14 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan; in the South China market, it was 54 yuan per ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - As of October 29, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.09%, up 0.63%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.28%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 73.31%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20% [1]. Production and Sales Rates - On October 29, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1]. Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 (design capacity) started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2]. Market Analysis - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak, and the oil price cooled down after horizontal adjustment. The domestic PX operating load remained high, and the PTA main suppliers' symposium was about to be held. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors about a refinery's shutdown had no follow - up, and overseas devices ran smoothly. The call for anti - involution in the industry had little impact on PX supply and demand in the short - term [2]. - **PTA**: The industry meeting boosted market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. The PTA market fluctuated narrowly, and the spot basis strengthened slightly under the expectation of production reduction. The new PTA device in East China started trial production, but the anti - involution expectation offset its impact. It may be difficult to coordinate a new production reduction plan, and the upward space will be limited without continuous demand improvement [2]. - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5710 - 5830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, the market atmosphere was weak, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The supply of the bottle - chip market was relatively sufficient, and the demand was weak [2].
宏源期货农产品早报-20251030
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows fluctuations, with some indicators rising and some falling. For example, there are values like 10.13, 10.25% increases and -1539.34, -105.90 decreases [1] - The polyester market has price adjustments, and the demand and supply situation is complex. There are suggestions for investment operations such as buying at certain price ranges [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market Data**: There are various data including values like 6150.00, 2202.50, and percentage changes such as 10.13%, 0.00% for different items on specific dates (2025/10/28 - 2025/10/30) [1] - **Market Situation**: The polyester market has price increases and decreases, and the operation of the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the price of ethylene glycol. There are also inventory adjustments and trading activities [2] - **Investment Suggestions**: There are suggestions for investment operations such as buying at a price range of 492 - 493 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations and information updates [2]
MEG
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:53
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The report anticipates that the price center of ethylene glycol (MEG) will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term. Although the supply side of MEG has an incremental expectation due to the restart of some short - stopped and previously overhauled devices and the planned commissioning of new devices, the demand improvement is limited as the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is coming to an end, despite a short - term boost from the increase in downstream orders during the Double Eleven period [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Information - On October 29, 2025, the price of MEG showed different trends. The spot price center of MEG oscillated and adjusted, with the afternoon spot basis strengthening. The night - session of MEG opened lower and moved up, and the on - site negotiation was light. In the morning, the market was mainly in a weak correction, with spot negotiations and transactions centered around a premium of 66 - 72 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the buying of recent goods was active, and the spot basis strengthened to a premium of around 80 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In the US dollar market, the outer - disk center of MEG adjusted narrowly. Near noon, recent shipments fell to around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in inquiries at low prices. In the afternoon, the market rebounded, and recent shipments were negotiated at around 492 - 493 US dollars/ton, with the negotiation being a bit stalemate [3]. - Other chemical product prices on October 29, 2025, are as follows: the price of naphtha CFR was 5575 US dollars/ton, up 0.44% from the previous value; the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 766 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the ex - factory average price of cyclohexane in East China was 6150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the price of methanol was 2202 yuan/ton, up 5550.00% from the previous value; the price of brown coal in Inner Mongolia (Q3000) was 290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; the closing price of the main contract was 4100 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous value; the settlement price of the main contract was 4081 yuan/ton, down 0.22% from the previous value; the closing price of the near - month contract was 4042 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous value; the settlement price of the near - month contract was 4040 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous value; the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4100 yuan/ton, up 0.95% from the previous value; the price of ethylene glycol in Inner Mongolia was 4180 yuan/ton, down 0.9% from the previous value; the price difference between the far - month and near - month contracts was 34 yuan/ton; the basis was 80 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous value; the comprehensive ethylene glycol was 64.41%, unchanged from the previous value; the ethylene glycol produced from oil was 66.66%, unchanged from the previous value; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol was 61.16%, unchanged from the previous value; the industrial load rate of polyester (PTA) plants was 89.28%, unchanged from the previous value; the industrial load rate of textile machinery in Zhejiang Province was 2.06%, up 0.2% from the previous value; the outer - disk price of ethylene glycol produced from naphtha was 1215.9 US dollars/ton, up 10.13% from the previous value; the outer - disk price of ethylene glycol produced from ethylene was 1089 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous value; the after - tax gross profit of the coal - based synthesis device was 110.18 yuan/ton, up 2.22 yuan/ton from the previous value; the price index of polyester was 8400 yuan/ton, up 0.3% from the previous value; the price index of polyester ester was 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous value; the price index of polyester staple fiber was 6360 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous value; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 4000 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous value [1]. Supply and Demand Situation - A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Fujian has successfully restarted and produced materials, and the subsequent load will run at around 90% [2]. - Some MEG plants are under planned maintenance recently, but with the successive restart of short - stopped and previously overhauled plants and the planned commissioning of new plants in the future, the supply side of MEG has an incremental expectation. The loom operating rate has continued to rise slightly recently, and downstream orders have increased during the Double Eleven period, driving some replenishment demand. However, as the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is coming to an end, the demand increment is limited [3]. Sales Situation - On October 29, 2025, the sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips were 48.87%, 43.57%, and 37.06% respectively. The sales of polyester filament were average. Due to the repair of oil price premium and the slowdown of raw material price increase, the downstream and terminal businesses were good, but the raw material inventory was sufficient, with less new inventory added during the day and only sporadic rigid demand [3].
宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251030
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-30 05:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations. The PX view is scored 0, the PTA view is scored 0, and the PR view is scored 0 [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On October 29, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $60.48 per barrel, up 0.55%; Brent crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.81%. The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $571.13 per ton, up 0.44%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $681.00 per ton, up 0.22%. The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $818.00 per ton, up 0.49% [1] - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,636 yuan per ton, up 0.48%; the settlement price was 4,610 yuan per ton, down 0.09%. The domestic PTA spot price was 4,535 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market on October 28 was $601.00 per ton, down 2.12% [1] - **PX**: The CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,652 yuan per ton, up 0.51%; the settlement price was 6,614 yuan per ton, up 0.03%. The domestic PX spot price was 6,451 yuan per ton, down 1.13% [1] - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5,726 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the settlement price was 5,710 yuan per ton, down 0.17%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35%; in the South China market, it was 5,780 yuan per ton, down 0.34% [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester fiber DTY was 8,450 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; POY was 6,775 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; FDY68D was 6,950 yuan per ton, unchanged; FDY150D was 6,700 yuan per ton, unchanged; polyester staple fiber was 6,360 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; polyester chip was 5,605 yuan per ton, unchanged; bottle - grade chip was 5,740 yuan per ton, down 0.35% [2] Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester filament on October 29, 2025, was 48.87%, down 13.63 percentage points; polyester staple fiber was 43.57%, up 0.07 percentage points; polyester chip was 37.06%, down 20.55 percentage points [1] Operating Rate - On October 29, 2025, the operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.09%, up 0.63 percentage points; polyester factories was 89.28%, unchanged; bottle - chip factories was 73.31%, unchanged; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.06%, up 0.20 percentage points [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the new one will be put into operation and the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: Overnight crude oil was weak. After short - term digestion of geopolitical and macro - emotions, there was no new positive news. The PX CFR China price on October 29 was $818 per ton, with cost - end oil prices fluctuating in a range. The domestic PX operating load remained high. The PTA main - supplier symposium was about to be held, and participants were still confident in the future supply - demand outlook. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,652 yuan per ton. Market rumors of a refinery's possible shutdown had no follow - up. Overseas devices were stable. The PX profit was expected to fluctuate stably in the short term [2] - **PTA**: The industry meeting continued to boost market sentiment. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,636 yuan per ton. Traders awaited PTA meeting news. Crude oil failed to recover losses. PTA prices fluctuated narrowly. Under the expectation of production cuts, the spot basis strengthened slightly. The new PTA device in East China started trial production. The anti - involution expectation offset the impact of new capacity. It might be difficult to coordinate new production - cut plans. The increase in the terminal loom operating rate and good polyester filament sales were positive for the market [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang market was 5,710 - 5,830 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated, with a weak market atmosphere and low downstream purchasing willingness. The PR2601 contract closed at 5,726 yuan per ton. The bottle - chip market supply was relatively abundant, and downstream demand was weak [2]