Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures market has strengthened again recently due to potential supply-side disturbances. It is expected that the silicon price may remain at a high level in the short term, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. The polysilicon price is also in a high-level consolidation, and the spot price increase faces pressure [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing steadily, while the demand is mixed. The polysilicon industry has a certain demand increment, but the organic silicon and silicon-aluminum alloy industries have different situations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - On September 17, 2025, the average price of non-oxygenated 553 industrial silicon in East China increased by 1.11% to 9,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 increased by 1.05% to 9,600 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, up 1.31% [1]. - The prices of N-type polysilicon materials such as N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, N-type mixed material, and N-type granular silicon all increased, with increases ranging from 1.84% to 2.06%. The futures main contract closed at 53,670 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [1]. Market Supply and Demand - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: With the continuous rise of silicon prices, some previously overhauled silicon factories in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, and the power cost is at a low level throughout the year, so the enterprise start-up rate has steadily recovered, and the supply has increased steadily [1]. - **Industrial Silicon Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some silicon material factories have复产 arrangements, which will bring some demand increments. The organic silicon market has supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, with low inventory willingness [1]. - **Polysilicon Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production reduction trend, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. It is expected that the output will increase slightly, with an estimated output of nearly 110,000 tons in July and about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - **Polysilicon Demand**: The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. Investment Strategies - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt interval operation, buy out-of-the-money put options, and consider participating in the 2511 and 2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Before the implementation of supply-side reform policies, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - Hebei Kuntian New Energy Co., Ltd.'s silicon-carbon anode material production line (Phase I, 1,000 tons) has been officially put into operation and started small-scale supply to domestic and foreign leading customers. The company has planned a Phase II expansion plan, aiming for an annual production capacity of 5,000 tons after the completion of both phases [1]. - On September 12, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Overall Plan for the 'Three-North' Shelter Forest Program", proposing to actively promote photovoltaic sand control in the northern wind-sand area and the northwest desert area [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The weak performance of US employment data in August, the flat year-on-year rate of core CPI in the consumer inflation, and Trump's continuous pressure or replacement of Fed officials have led more Fed officials to support interest rate cuts. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December. Coupled with geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] Summary of Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00. The inventory remained unchanged at 53,226.00 (in ten grams) [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 829.72 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 9,882.00 and an open interest of 208,096.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 3,677.60 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 220,410.00 and an open interest of 385,580.00. The inventory was 39,180,931.12 (in gold ounces) [1] - **London Gold Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 3,632.65 US dollars/ounce [1] - **SPDR Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 979.95 tons [1] - **iShare Gold ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 464.57 tons [1] - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Silver T+D**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 10,017.00 yuan/kilogram, with a trading volume of 356,647.00 and an open interest of 195,504.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price was 43.19 US dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 63,715.00 and an open interest of 134,910.00. The inventory was 518,898,317.13 (in silver ounces) [1] - **London Silver Spot**: On September 16, 2025, the price was 42.69 US dollars/ounce [1] - **US iShare Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 15,137.37 tons [1] - **TPSLV Silver ETF Holdings**: On September 16, 2025, the holdings were 6,129.64 tons [1] Important Information - Milan has been confirmed as a Fed governor and will participate in this week's interest rate decision. The US Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove a Fed governor, and Cook is allowed to attend this week's interest rate decision [1] - US House Republicans proposed a short-term spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but ignored the Democrats' healthcare requirements. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month-on-month, exceeding expectations for three consecutive months, and real retail sales have increased for 11 consecutive months [1] Trading Strategy - The main strategy is to go long when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On September 16, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $64.52 per barrel, up 1.93% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $68.47 per barrel, up 1.53% [1]. - **Naphtha and Xylene**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $604.88 per ton, down 0.60%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $680.00 per ton, down 0.66% [1]. - **PX**: The spot price of p - xylene CFR China Main Port was $834.00 per ton, down 0.24%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was unchanged at 6617 yuan per ton. The PXN spread was $229.13 per ton, up 0.71%, and the PX - MX spread was $154.00 per ton, up 1.65% [1]. - **PTA**: The CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4688 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4618 yuan per ton, up 0.39% [1]. - **PR**: The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 5846 yuan per ton, up 0.24%. The mainstream market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5850 yuan per ton, up 0.34% [1]. Supply and Demand Information - **PX**: International crude oil has cost support for PX, but the improvement of domestic PX supply capacity and poor demand follow - up have pressured market confidence. The domestic and overseas PX device loads are on the rise, and the downstream polyester season has not seen an over - expected increase in new orders and loads [2]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. Crude oil provides cost support under low processing fees, but the sufficient PTA spot restricts the increase. A 4.5 - million - ton PTA device in South China will restart, increasing supply. The polyester raw material end starts to pick up significantly, while the polyester and downstream starts to pick up slowly, and the demand for the peak season is expected to weaken [2]. - **PR**: The downstream demand is average. The supply of bottle chips is stable, and the market spot is sufficient. Downstream terminals purchase on demand with a cautious attitude [2]. Device Information - The 1.2 - million - ton PTA device of Ningbo Taihua stopped on September 5 [2]. Trading Volume Information - The trading volume of the PX2511 contract was 173,400 lots, the trading volume of the TA2601 contract was 640,200 lots, and the trading volume of the PR2511 contract was 34,100 lots [2]. Operating Rate Information - The operating rates of the PX, PTA factory, polyester factory, bottle chip factory, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged on September 16, 2025, at 87.16%, 78.25%, 88.78%, 74.19%, and 65.54% respectively [1]. Sales Rate Information - On September 16, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 40.95%, down 12.43 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 65.07%, up 14.44 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 120.74%, up 40.47 percentage points [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to uncertainties in the Fed's future rate - cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season but the high copper price suppressing potential demand, the Shanghai copper price may experience adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data Overview - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677 hands; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040 hands; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on September 16, 2025, was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on September 16, 2025, was 4.6991, up 0.05 from the previous day. The total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 from the previous day [2]. Supply - Demand - Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, causing the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates to decline. Copper smelters' maintenance capacity in September increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the DRC reduced production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the DRC [2]. - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season has led to a recovery in demand in some copper - processing industries. However, high copper prices have made downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increased compared to last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreased compared to last week; COMEX copper inventory increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2].

Commodity Price Information - Crude oil price on September 16, 2025, was $604.88 per ton, up 0.60% from the previous day [1] - Northeast Asia ethylene price on September 16, 2025, was $851 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - East China ethylene oxide ex - factory price on September 16, 2025, was $6300 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Inner Mongolia brown coal price on September 16, 2025, was $290 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Main contract settlement price on September 16, 2025, was $4298 per ton, up 0.49% from the previous day [1] - Near - month contract closing price on September 16, 2025, was $4338 per ton, up 0.81% from the previous day [1] - Inner - market ethylene glycol price on September 16, 2025, was $4380 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Near - far month price difference on September 16, 2025, was - $21 per ton [1] - Ethylene glycol comprehensive price difference on September 16, 2025, was - $14 per ton [1] Operating Rate and Load Rate - Oil - based ethylene glycol operating rate on September 16, 2025, was 65% [1] - Coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate on September 16, 2025, was 8.14% [1] - PTA factory load rate on September 16, 2025, was 88.88% [1] - Jiangsu and Zhejiang PTA textile machine industry load rate on September 16, 2025, was 65.54% [1] Other Information - Outer - market oil - based ethylene glycol price on September 16, 2025, was $126.89 per ton, a decrease of $5.64 from the previous day [1] - Outer - market ethylene price on September 16, 2025, was $141.11 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - After - tax gross profit of coal - based synthesis gas method on September 16, 2025, was $1511.08 per ton, a decrease of $13.8 from the previous day [1] - Polyester price index on September 16, 2025, was $8550 per ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Polyester staple fiber price index on September 16, 2025, was $640 per ton, up 0.8% from the previous day [1] - Bottle - grade chip price index on September 16, 2025, was $5850 per ton, up 0.34% from the previous day [1]

黑色金属周报-铁矿 供需双增 博弈加剧 2025年9月16日 供应方面： 目录 第一部分 基本面及结论 第二部分 数据梳理 1 供需双增 博弈加剧 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999; TEL：010-82292661 上周铁矿主流现货价格反弹，周度涨幅在2-15元不等。具体来看，卡粉（+9），PB粉（+8），BRBF （+7），金布巴（+12），超 特粉（+12），mac（+8）。块矿方面，PB块（-） ，纽曼块（-1），乌克兰/俄罗斯造球精粉（+10）。普氏62%指数方面，截止9月15日， 普氏指数收于105.5美元，周环比下降0.2美元，目前按汇率7.12折算人民币大致在874元左右。仓单方面，截止9月15日，最优交割品为 NM粉，目前最新报价在785元/吨左右，折算仓单（厂库）为811元/吨左右，除NM粉之外，次优交割品为brbf粉。 库存方面：中国47港铁矿石库存环比累库，低于去年同期。截止目前，47港铁矿石库存总量14456.12万吨，环比累库30万吨，较 年初去库1154万吨,比去年同期库存低1584万吨。下期从卸货端考虑，到港小幅波动；从需求端 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 15, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upward. The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory pressure of upstream is not large. With the active promotion of the resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction weakens. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On September 15, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with September 12. The trading volume was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 (+338) tons [1]. Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, while the mica price remained stable. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium phosphate aluminum stone and ternary precursor also changed to varying degrees [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased, and the output of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all increased. In September, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate increased. - Demand side: Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials decreased, and the output of power batteries increased. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries in September will increase [1]. Inventory - Social inventory decreased. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,580 tons compared with the previous week [1]. Important Information - On September 15, Savama Resources Plc, a London - listed company, said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The pegmatite reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, becoming the largest pegmatite deposit in Europe [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Although the current urea spot price is oscillating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying on dips after the spot price stabilizes. Specifically, it is advisable to pay attention to the buying - on - dips opportunity of the 01 contract [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 futures price increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.20%) to 1683 yuan/ton, UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton (0.76%) to 1731 yuan/ton, and UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton (11.46%) to 1750 yuan/ton [1] - In terms of domestic spot prices (small - granular), prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased, with price changes of - 20 yuan/ton (- 1.20%), - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%), and - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.61%) respectively, while prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - On September 15, the basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton compared with September 12; the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: the price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine price in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) to 5083 yuan/ton, while the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1] Long - Short Logic - Recently, there has been a resurgence of anti - involution sentiment in coking coal. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the coal - chemical sentiment to be relatively strong [1] - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for urea prices in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of old - device renovation, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old and the current comprehensive urea operating rate above 80%, and there is not much idle capacity; on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports, and considering the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are relatively promising [1]

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 贵金属日评20250916: 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-12 | 2025-09-09 | 收盘价 | 831.60 | 834. 22 | 834. 48 | -2. 62 | -2. 88 | | | | | 成父童 | 262249.00 | 131159.00 | 170217.00 | -39,058.00 | -131, 090. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 104349.00 | 109267.00 | -20, 532. 00 | 124881.00 | -4. 918. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 53226. 00 | 276.00 | 4441 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the traditional peak consumption season has led to an initial recovery in downstream demand, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be cautiously bullish. Traders are advised to mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,940, a decrease of 120 from the previous day; the trading volume was 68,871 lots, a decrease of 22,685; the open interest was 179,256 lots, a decrease of 7,620; the inventory was 30,643 tons, an increase of 5,083 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 0, an increase of 305; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - semi - average price was 80,940, an increase of 185; various copper premium/discount prices showed different changes [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,189, an increase of 121.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.93, an increase of 11.49; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 158.15, an increase of 9.33; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9439, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.719, an increase of 0.05; the total inventory was 305,345 (with a change of - 309,834 compared to a previous value) [2]. Important Information - Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa region have reduced production due to water and electricity supply shortages in September 2025, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa, which poses challenges to the production recovery in the Congo - Kinshasa as most of its copper production uses the mixed - process method [2]. Multi - Empty Logic - **Supply Side**: There are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared to last week. The supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates is tight, the supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, leading to a decline in domestic crude copper or anode plate processing fees. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September has increased month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Congo - Kinshasa reduced production in September 2025 due to water and electricity supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Congo - Kinshasa [2]. - **Demand Side**: The expectation of the traditional peak consumption season has led to a partial recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price suppresses the downstream potential demand [2]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week; the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy Traders should mainly lay out long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, and the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2].