Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of lead has fallen from its high, and the upward momentum of zinc prices may be insufficient. It is recommended to hold short positions in zinc and temporarily observe the market [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% to 17,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract remained unchanged at 17,355 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest all showed certain changes. LME inventory remained unchanged, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.43% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the supply of secondary lead has increased. The terminal market has improved, and the demand for lead batteries is okay [1]. - **Market Outlook**: After the sharp rise in lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The supply shortage has improved, and there is significant upward pressure on lead prices [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.09% to 22,220 yuan/ton, and the main futures contract rose by 0.54% to 22,430 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest all changed. LME inventory remained unchanged, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 1.24% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and monthly production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Market Outlook**: The macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply pattern has tightened. Zinc prices have some support at the bottom, but the weak domestic terminal demand may suppress the upward movement, and the upward momentum may be lacking [1]. Industry News - An Inner Mongolia lead - zinc mine has resumed production, and the total lead - zinc metal output in November is expected to reach 1,000 - 1,500 tons. However, it may enter a regular shutdown period in mid - to - late December [1]. - On October 27, an explosion occurred at the Endeavor silver, zinc, and lead mine in Australia, resulting in two deaths and one injury. The mine has suspended operations for investigation [1].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived yet based on supply and demand. The current market is mainly driven by short - position holders taking profit. It is recommended to hold the previously sold out - of - the - money put options. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the situation of strong supply and weak demand. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline, accelerating enterprise clearance. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient, with large supply and inventory pressure. The downstream is cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential drivers include the renovation of old chemical industry equipment on the supply side and the issuance of new export quotas [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Urea Futures Price - On October 29, compared with October 28, UR01 increased by 0.55% (9 yuan/ton), UR05 increased by 0.53% (9 yuan/ton), and UR09 increased by 0.63% (11 yuan/ton) [1] Domestic Spot Price - On October 29, compared with October 28, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 0.62%, 0.63%, and 0.63% respectively (10 yuan/ton each), prices in Shanxi decreased by 0.68% (10 yuan/ton), while prices in Hebei and Northeast remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 19 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] Upstream Cost - On October 29, compared with October 28, the price of anthracite coal in Shanxi increased by 5.68% (50 yuan/ton), while prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged [1] Downstream Price - On October 29, compared with October 28, prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and prices of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1638 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1652 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1633 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1644 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1643 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 270,349 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the sold out - of - the - money put options [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon still shows a certain increase, while the improvement in demand is limited, maintaining an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper space of the market. For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the market, but considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, and the pressure to raise spot prices is relatively large [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.40% to 9,170 yuan/ton [1]. - The average prices of non - oxygenated 553 in Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan were 9,350 yuan/ton, 9,200 yuan/ton, 9,350 yuan/ton, and 8,950 yuan/ton respectively, all remaining unchanged. The average prices of oxygenated 553 in different regions showed little change, with the price in Huangpu Port rising 0.53% to 9,450 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Situation - In October, the southwest production area has gradually returned to the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up of northern silicon enterprises has increased. After offsetting, the total start - up has increased [1]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still in a production - reduction state, but there may still be an increase in output in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The overall willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. Investment Strategy - The overall supply - demand situation of industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upper space of the market. Pay attention to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is interval operation [1]. Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material fell 0.97% to 51 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material fell 1.19% to 52.35 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained flat at 50.50 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained flat at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.17% to 54,990 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - reduction state, but some polysilicon plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, it is expected that the output will still increase slightly in October. On the demand side, the market transaction was relatively light during the National Day, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are more resistant to high - price resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. Investment Strategy - Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, and the pressure to raise spot prices is relatively large. The previous long positions should pay attention to profit protection. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, you can try to go long lightly on dips [1]. Industry News - On October 10, US photovoltaic manufacturer T1 Energy announced a strategic investment in and acquisition of a minority stake in solar cell developer Talon PV. The cooperation will form a synergistic effect in photovoltaic manufacturing in Texas, with a total planned production capacity of 9.8GW [1]. - On October 26, the National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics from January to September. As of the end of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.5%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 45.7%, and the installed capacity of wind power was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment nationwide from January to September was 2,368 hours, 251 hours less than the same period last year. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of stainless steel are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is predicted that the upside space for stainless steel is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Price Changes**: On October 28, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 120,300 yuan/ton, down 1,760 yuan from the previous day. The LME 3 - month nickel spot official price was 15,175 dollars/ton, down 120 dollars from the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures active contract was 156,296 hands (+26,763), and the open interest was 115,046 hands (+6,057) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened. In October, domestic and Indonesian production increased, and nickel - iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. - **Inventory**: Inventories increased in the SHFE, LME, and social inventories, while decreased in the bonded area [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures contracts also decreased. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 12,755 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan from the previous day. The basis of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 65 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the stainless - steel futures active contract was 97,090 hands (-61,294), and the open interest was 100,253 hands (-14,871) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In October, stainless - steel production increased, but the production of 300 - series decreased. Terminal demand was weak [2]. - **Cost**: The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [2]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory remained unchanged. Last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 61,270 tons (-9,000) [2]. Industry News - **Nickel Price Forecast**: A survey of 30 industry analysts showed that the average LME spot nickel price in 2025 is expected to be 15,318 dollars/ton, 15,755 dollars/ton in 2026, and 16,813 dollars/ton in 2024. The nickel market is expected to have a supply surplus of 191,000 tons in 2025 and 156,500 tons in 2026 [2]. - **Indonesian Nickel Price Index**: The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) data on October 27 showed that the domestic nickel price in Indonesia was relatively stable, with some processed product prices rising slightly [2]. Trading Strategies - **Nickel**: The trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is recommended to short on rallies [2].

Report Title - The report is titled "Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20251029: Beware of Price Reversals after Peaking" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with low inventory pressure upstream. The price is rising due to macro - improvement and warrant cancellation. However, production is continuously increasing, downstream inventory replenishment is slowing down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. It is necessary to guard against price reversals after peaking. The trading strategy suggests shorting on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Data on October 28, 2025 - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to the previous day, with declines ranging from 260 to 340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract decreased by 260 yuan/ton to 81640 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 729307 lots, an increase of 214852 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 488803 lots, an increase of 5325 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27335 tons, a decrease of 404 tons compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The spread between near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spread between consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 320 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton [2] - **Base Price**: The base price (SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium average price - carbonate lithium active contract closing price) was - 3140 yuan/ton, an increase of 2210 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] 2. Raw Material Prices - The prices of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and various lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 925 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars/ton compared to the previous day [2] 3. Lithium Product Prices - The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium increased. The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium was 78500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The average prices of different types of lithium hydroxide also increased slightly. The average price of battery - grade micro - powder lithium hydroxide was 79700 yuan/ton, an increase of 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] 4. Other Related Product Prices - The average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium (99.95% domestic) was 100500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3000 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - The prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, and the prices of some cathode materials such as lithium iron phosphate also increased [2] 5. Inventory Data - The SMM carbonate lithium inventory decreased. The total inventory was 130366 tons, a decrease of 2292 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the inventory of smelters decreased by 602 tons, the inventory of downstream decreased by 2460 tons, and the inventory of others increased by 770 tons [2] 6. Industry News - On October 28, Dazhong Mining announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary Liuzhou Chengtai Mining Investment Co., Ltd. obtained a 30 - year "Mining License" for the Hunan Jijiaoshan lithium mine. The lithium ore resource volume is 48987200 tons, equivalent to about 3.2443 million tons of carbonate equivalent. The open - pit mining scale is 20 million tons per year, which can produce 80000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [2] - Chile's lithium national strategy is advancing. The Chilean Ministry of Mining has submitted a decree to the Comptroller - General of the Republic, specifying the terms and conditions of CEOL contracts with several consortia, which will enable the development of a lithium project in the Quillagua Este area [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The sentiment of urea has improved, but the supply-demand situation suggests that a reversal may not have arrived yet. The current low valuation reflects the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a five-year low, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, it may lead to a further decline in upstream production willingness and accelerate corporate self-clearance. In the short term, there is insufficient upward driving force for urea, with large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers are cautious about restocking at low prices. Future potential driving factors include the expectation of old equipment renovation in the chemical industry on the supply side and the possibility of new export quotas [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton to 1635.00 yuan/ton (-0.30%), UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton (-0.29%), and UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In Northeast China, it increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton (0.63%); in Jiangsu, it decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton (-0.62%); prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from -103.00 yuan/ton to -98.00 yuan/ton, and the spread between 01 - 05 remained unchanged [1] 3. Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030.00 yuan/ton and 880.00 yuan/ton respectively [1] 4. Downstream Prices - The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900.00 yuan/ton and 2500.00 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong remained unchanged at 5084.00 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu, it increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton (0.98%) [1] 5. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1] 6. Trading Strategy - Hold the previously sold out-of-the-money put options (Viewpoint Score: 0) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2: Core View - Methanol continued its weak and volatile market. The price is relatively high compared to upstream coal and downstream polyolefin prices, and the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory pressure and insufficient downstream restocking drive. It is expected that the inventory turning point may be around mid - November, and the subsequent possible drive lies in the possible reduction on the supply side. It is recommended to wait before going long on methanol, and the current trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents 1. Price and Change - Methanol futures prices (MA01, MA05, MA09) decreased on October 28, 2025, compared with October 27, 2025. For example, MA01 fell from 2268 yuan/ton to 2241 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton (-1.19%) [1] - Most methanol spot prices in different regions decreased, but prices in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly. For example, the price in Sichuan - Chongqing rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2195 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton (0.23%) [1] - Coal spot prices decreased, such as the price of Buzhoukesi Q5500 coal fell from 575 yuan/ton to 555 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton (-3.48%) [1] - Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - Coal - based methanol profit decreased from 238.10 yuan/ton to 230.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton (-3.11%) [1] - Natural gas - based methanol profit remained at - 1100.00 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest MTO profit decreased from 33.00 yuan/ton to 23.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton (-30.30%), while East China MTO profit increased from - 747.07 yuan/ton to - 714.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 32.50 yuan/ton (4.35%) [1] - Most of the downstream profits of methanol increased, such as MTBE profit increased from 341.48 yuan/ton to 380.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.32 yuan/ton (11.51%) [1] 3. Important Information - Domestic methanol futures: The main contract MA2601 fell weakly, opening at 2267 yuan/ton, closing at 2241 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 685,035 lots and open interest of 1,221,292 lots, showing increased volume and open interest [1] - Foreign information: A 2.3 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is under maintenance, a previously shut - down 1.65 - million - ton plant has restarted to 80% capacity, and the number of shipped cargoes from the port in this country is extremely small. The estimated total methanol shipment volume from this country this month is around 800,000 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. There is insufficient short - term upward drive, and it is necessary to focus on the old device renovation of the chemical industry on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: UR01 urea futures price in Shanxi decreased from 1640.00 yuan/ton on October 27th to 1635.00 yuan/ton on October 28th, a decrease of 0.30%. UR05 decreased from 1713.00 yuan/ton to 1708.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29%. UR09 decreased from 1745.00 yuan/ton to 1736.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.52% [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei remained unchanged. The price in Northeast China increased from 1600.00 yuan/ton to 1610.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The price in Jiangsu decreased from 1610.00 yuan/ton to 1600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The prices of compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, while that in Jiangsu increased from 5100.00 yuan/ton to 5150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased from - 103.00 yuan/ton to - 98.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.00 yuan/ton. The spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged at - 73.00 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information - The opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1636 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1645 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1626 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1635 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1635 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273001 lots [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to continue holding the previously sold out - of - the - money put options (view score: 0) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, after a significant increase in lead prices, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, the import window is open, and the tight supply situation has improved. There is significant pressure on the upside of lead prices, and there is a risk of a sharp decline in lead prices. For zinc, the macro - sentiment has improved, and the domestic mine supply pattern has tightened. The domestic TC is likely to fall rather than rise, and LME zinc is in a deep backwardation structure, providing some support for zinc prices. However, considering the weak domestic end - market, there may be a lack of continuous upward momentum for zinc prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract fell by 0.94% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 30.04%, the open interest decreased by 8.01%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio decreased by 23.95%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory increased by 0.21%. The closing price of LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic trading) increased by 0.07%, and the Shanghai - to - London lead price ratio decreased by 1.02% [1]. - **Industry News**: A large recycled lead refinery in North China has shut down its blast furnace for maintenance, with the resumption date undetermined, affecting refined lead production by 300 - 400 tons per day. A large lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China plans to reduce or halt production from October 28 to November 2, 2025, for 7 days due to rising raw material prices, sufficient product inventory, and high risks at high lead prices [1]. - **Fundamentals and Strategy**: The import of lead concentrates is not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the supply of recycled lead has increased. The terminal market has improved, and the demand for lead - acid battery enterprises has increased. The trading strategy is to hold existing short positions [1]. Zinc Market - **Price and Market Data**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots increased by 0.27% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract decreased by 0.25% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 7.23%, the open interest decreased by 0.41%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 7.66%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 3.88%. The closing price of LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic trading) decreased by 0.07%, and the Shanghai - to - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.18% [1]. - **Industry News**: In September 2025, Chile exported 0.13 million tons of zinc concentrates, and the cumulative export volume from January to September was 4.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%. In August 2025, Peru exported 189,600 physical tons of zinc concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 15%, and the cumulative export volume from January to August was 1.4328 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In August 2025, Bolivia produced 37,400 metal tons of zinc concentrates, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, and the cumulative production from January to August was 333,200 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. On October 27, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $212.89 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,274 lots to 222,244 lots [1]. - **Fundamentals and Strategy**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are likely to decline in October. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of around 600,000 tons. The demand has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply of industrial silicon still shows a certain increase, while the improvement in demand is limited. The industrial silicon market remains in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the upper limit of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, recent supply - side news has pushed up the futures price, but considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have a concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further [1]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.11% to 8,955 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained flat at 51.50 yuan/kg, and the closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.27% to 54,355 yuan/ton [1]. Market Fundamentals - Supply side: In October, the southwest production area of industrial silicon is entering the high - cost dry season, with some silicon enterprises planning to reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month, while the start - up rate of northern silicon enterprises has increased, resulting in an overall increase in the total start - up rate. For polysilicon, although enterprises are maintaining a production reduction trend, the output is expected to increase in October [1]. - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises are maintaining production reduction, organic silicon enterprises are at the pre - holiday start - up level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, with limited willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up at low prices. For polysilicon, the market transaction was light during the National Day, with few new transactions, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources [1]. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The market is in an oversupply situation, which may suppress the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is range - bound operation [1]. - Polysilicon: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, one can try to go long on dips. Existing long positions should pay attention to profit protection [1]. Industry News - The Guangzhou Development and Reform Commission announced the public notice of the application situation of the stock projects of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism, with 265 distributed photovoltaic projects and a total approved (filed) capacity of 1545.47MW, among which 1502.01MW was put into operation before June 1, 2025. The Mexican Energy Ministry released the National Power System Development Plan, prioritizing renewable energy and energy storage, with expected new power generation capacity between 6.4GW and 9.55GW, 96% of which comes from solar and wind energy, and clean energy generation is expected to account for 38% of the total power generation by 2030 [1].