Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound range of nickel prices is expected to be limited [1]. - For stainless steel, although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost end, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 122,500 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 122,820 yuan/ton, and 122,480 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 700 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 660 yuan/ton, and 680 yuan/ton compared to September 12 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 123,000 yuan/ton, 1 Jinchuan nickel's average price was 124,000 yuan/ton, and 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel)'s average price was 122,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron mills' loss margins narrowed. In September, domestic and Indonesian nickel iron production increased, and nickel iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary material production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories increased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. - **LME Market**: On September 15, 2025, LME 3 - month nickel's closing price (electronic trading) was 15,391 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars/ton. The trading volume was 7,041 lots, an increase of 2,045 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,070 yuan/ton, and 13,110 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price was 13,800 yuan/ton, 304/2B coil - rough (Wuxi) average price was 13,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Stainless steel production increased in September [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 96,600 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons [1]. Industry News - Minmetals Resources (MMG) expects its $500 million acquisition of Anglo American's nickel mine assets to be approved by the EU, although the Brazilian competition regulator has launched an investigation into the deal [1]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to short at high levels after the interest - rate cut is implemented [1]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises, considering the low spot price in East China and the approaching traditional downstream peak season, there may be opportunities for the price to rise [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Methanol futures prices: MA01 increased from 2379 yuan/ton on 2025/9/12 to 2396 yuan/ton on 2025/9/15, a rise of 0.71%; MA05 rose from 2385 yuan/ton to 2408 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96%; MA09 soared from 2230 yuan/ton to 2377 yuan/ton, a jump of 6.59% [1]. - Methanol spot prices: Prices in most regions changed slightly. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 0.66%, while those in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei remained unchanged. Prices in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.70% and 0.35% respectively [1]. - Coal and natural gas prices: The price of Port Shuohuang Q5500 coal increased by 1.01%, and that of Datong Q5500 coal rose by 2.71%. Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained stable [1]. - Profit situation: The profit of coal - to - methanol remained unchanged at 455.20 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - to - methanol stayed at - 382.00 yuan/ton. The profit of East China MTO decreased by 10.70%, while the profit of MTBE increased by 15.53% [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 rose strongly, opening at 2385 yuan/ton and closing at 2396 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 498,181 lots and a position of 783,891 lots, showing increased volume and reduced positions [1]. - Overseas: Due to the shutdown and maintenance of a small number of methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country, the overall methanol operating rate in that country dropped to 65.45%, an 8 - 9 percentage - point decrease compared to the previous period, but the loading speed at the port was relatively normal [1]. 3.3 Multi - Short Logic - Positive factor: The anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has resurfaced, and the sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal - chemical industry to be strong [1]. - Negative factors: The current low - level oscillation of methanol spot prices is mainly due to high port inventory and low downstream profits in the inland areas, which suppress the upward space. In the short term, the upward drive is limited because of the high absolute level of port inventory and the insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views - **Lead**: Supply is temporarily tightened, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the pressure on non - ferrous metals is reduced. The lead price has broken through 17,000 yuan/ton. However, limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space of the lead price. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc remains weak, but the extremely low LME zinc inventory overseas and the continuous back structure of LME 0 - 3 support the upward movement of the London zinc price, which in turn boosts Shanghai zinc. With the impact of the interest - rate cut expectation, Shanghai zinc is expected to be in a moderately strong consolidation in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,950 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; futures主力合约收盘价 is 17,160 yuan/ton, up 0.70%; LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 2,001.50 dollars/ton, down 0.79%; the ratio of Shanghai - London lead price is 8.57, up 1.51%. Futures active contract trading volume is 58,666 hands, down 7.51%; futures active contract open interest is 47,056 hands, down 9.83%. LME inventory is 225,625 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 59,417 tons, down 0.11% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw materials and losses, the refinery's operating enthusiasm has weakened, and the scope of production cuts has expanded, with the current operating rate below 30% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: The terminal market has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect has not been reflected. Dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales. After the lead price broke through 17,000 yuan/ton last Friday, downstream buyers were afraid of high prices, and the purchasing sentiment improved slightly [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Protect the profits of previous long positions [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,160 yuan/ton; futures主力合约收盘价 is 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 2,982 dollars/ton, up 0.88%; the ratio of Shanghai - London zinc price is 7.48, down 0.85%. Futures active contract trading volume is 97,830 hands, down 5.57%; futures active contract open interest is 92,003 hands, down 5.83%. LME inventory is 50,150 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 51,371 tons, up 11.91% [1]. - **Fundamentals - Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - **Fundamentals - Demand**: After the impact of the parade and the SCO Summit dissipates, the downstream enterprises' operating rate has increased significantly, and demand has improved. Also, as the Shanghai - London ratio continues to decline, the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Although the current spot price of urea is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. It is suggested to pay attention to the buying opportunity of the 01 contract at low prices [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - On September 15, compared with September 12, UR01 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 1683 yuan/ton, a change of 1.20%; UR05 increased by 13 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton, a change of 0.76%; UR09 increased by 180 yuan/ton to 1750 yuan/ton, a change of 11.46% [1]. - Among domestic spot prices, Shandong decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -1.20%; Henan decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%; Jiangsu decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1640 yuan/ton, a change of -0.61%. The prices in Shanxi, Hebei, and Northeast remained unchanged [1]. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 33 yuan/ton to -91 yuan/ton; the spread of 01 - 05 increased by 7 yuan/ton to -48 yuan/ton [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively; the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 5083 yuan/ton, a change of -0.33%, and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5300 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1666 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1688 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1665 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1683 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1679 yuan/ton [1]. Long - Short Logic - Recently, the anti - involution sentiment of coking coal has a tendency to rise again. The sharp rise of coking coal in the night session yesterday drove the sentiment of the coal chemical industry to be strong [1]. - From a valuation perspective, the current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not high [1]. - From a driving perspective, there are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year. First, there is an expectation of renewal and transformation of old devices on the supply side, with about 20% of urea devices over 20 years old, and the current comprehensive operating rate of urea is over 80%, with little idle capacity. Second, there is an expectation of improvement in exports on the demand side. With the easing of Sino - Indian relations, the urea exports from September to October are quite promising [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the upstream inventory pressure is not significant. With the active resumption of key mines, the expectation of supply contraction has weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, 5 - consecutive - one, 3 - consecutive - two, 3 - consecutive - three, and other contracts of lithium carbonate futures all increased compared to September 12. For example, the near - month contract closed at 72,520 yuan/ton, up 1,340 yuan from September 12. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures on September 15 was 482,790 lots (+71,801), and the open interest was 309,446 lots (+44). [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12. [1] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 848 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars from September 12; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained at 1,075 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 5,975 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan; the price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 7,065 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. [1] 3.3 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials all rose. [1] - **Demand**: - **Downstream Product Production**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while the production of ternary materials decreased. In September, the planned production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. [1] - **Terminal Demand**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down; the 3C product shipments were average; the production of energy - storage batteries will increase in September. [1] 3.4 Inventory - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts were 38,963 tons (+338). [1] - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, down 1,580 tons from last week. [1] 3.5 Important Information On September 15, London - listed Savannah Resources said that after completing additional exploration work, the reserve estimate of its lithium mine project in northern Portugal increased by 40%. The spodumene reserve of Barroso resources is now expected to exceed 39 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 28 million tons, making it the largest spodumene deposit in Europe. [1] 3.6 Investment Strategy It is recommended to short at high levels. [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon price is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a price drop if polysilicon enterprises implement production cuts. The supply of polysilicon is expected to increase slightly, and the price is also in high - level consolidation. The high inventory of downstream raw materials makes it difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, which may suppress the price [1]. 3. Summary by Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) was stable at 9,500 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.63% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: As the silicon price rises, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise start - up rates. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans; the organic silicon market has supply fluctuations, and silicon alloy enterprises purchase as needed with low inventory - building willingness [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt range - bound operations, buy out - of - the - money put options, and consider participating in the reverse spread of contracts 2511 and 2512 [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.12% to 53,545 yuan/ton. The prices of N - type silicon wafers (210mm, 210R, 183mm) increased, while the prices of some battery cells and components remained flat [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. The trading volume in the polysilicon market has increased significantly, and inventory has decreased. However, the terminal demand pressure is large, and the component price increase faces resistance [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, consider lightly buying on dips [1]. Industry News - On September 11, the IPO application of China Power Construction New Energy Group Co., Ltd. was accepted. The company plans to raise 9 billion yuan and drive a total investment of 48.481 billion yuan in wind and solar power projects, with an expected new installed capacity of 8.46 million kilowatts [1]. - On September 12, the Ningxia Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on establishing a generation - side capacity price mechanism. The capacity price standards for coal - fired power units and grid - side new energy storage will be 100 yuan/kilowatt - year from October to December 2025 and 165 yuan/kilowatt - year from January 2026 [1].

贵金属周报-黄金和白银 美联储降息预期支撑贵金属价格 2025年9月15日 研究所 王文虎 从业资格证号：F03087656 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472 联系方式：021-51801878 黄金和白银 1、美国8月就业数据表现偏弱，消费端通胀核心CPI年率持平预期和前值，美联储越来越多官员支持降 息，特朗普持续施压或更换美联储官员，使市场预期美联储9/10/12月或连续每次降息25个基点。 2、美国《大漂亮法案》债务上限提高10万亿美元以扩大减税规模和国防支出，德国放宽债务刹车推出 包括4000亿欧元国防特别基金和5000亿欧元公共基础设施投资基金，日本2026年财政预算申请总额达到创纪 录的122.4万亿日元以应对防务支出扩大和债务融资成本上升，全球财政主动扩张时代到来。 3、2025年8月7日美国总统特朗普签署行政命令准许401(k)退休储蓄计划投资黄金和数字货币等另类资 产。规模约为2万亿欧元且占欧盟养老金总额50%以上的荷兰养老金体系将于2026年1月1日前切换至新系统， 要求年轻成员资金更多投向股票等风险资产，可能引发3000亿欧洲债券持仓变动。多国养老基金投资模式改 革引发向黄金和股票 ...

有色金属周报-铅 供给阶段性收紧，铅价突破万七关口 2025年9月15日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料-铅精矿：持续偏紧。远期到港矿依旧偏紧，考虑贵 | | | | | 金属价格走强，多家炼厂对铅矿含银及其他贵稀金属含量 | | | | | 提出要求，当前低银铅矿加工费整体维持在400-600元/金 | | | | | 属吨，但多金属富含的铅矿加工费已降至零附近。此外， | | | | | 部分炼厂逐渐开启冬储备库，矿端偏紧格局难有改善。 | 原生铅及再生铅炼厂开工均有所回 | | |  | 原料-废电瓶：随着京津冀地区回收业务逐渐恢复，废电 | 落，尤其是再生铅企业开工，供给 | | | | 瓶报废量得到回补，但再生铅炼厂开工不断下滑，废电瓶 | 阶段性收紧，铅价低位反弹至 | | | | 持续下滑，成本端支撑逻辑有所扭转。 | 17,000元/吨以上，下游畏涨采买有 | 高位整理， | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The supply of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [5][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 4.02%. The trading volume reached 2.96 million lots (-160,000), and the open interest reached 309,400 lots (-54,600) [7]. - The basis premium is 1,290 yuan/ton [8]. 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In August, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,670 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 2.6%; lithium mica production was 8,980 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 44.2% [12]. - In July, the import volume of lithium concentrate rebounded to 576,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [16]. - In July, the volume of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.1% [20]. - Lithium Battery Recycling - In September, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries is 27,623 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 32.9% [23]. - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,963 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.8%. - In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 13,845 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.7%. - In August, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 12,982 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [28][30]. - Lithium Hydroxide - In September, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 37%, and the production was 24,470 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12% and a year-on-year decrease of 21%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 1,248 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 80.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 86.3% [37]. 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 77,513 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. - In August, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 61%, and the production was 2,647,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5% and a year-on-year increase of 59% [40]. - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,491 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%. - In July, the import volume increased and the export volume decreased [45]. - Ternary Precursors - In September, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 43%, and the production was 81,490 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%. - In July, the export volume increased [50]. - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In September, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 11,887 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year decrease of 5%. - In September, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 67%, and the production was 12,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 42% [51]. - Electrolyte - In September, the production of electrolyte was 191,480 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7% and a year-on-year increase of 35.0%. - In July, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [59]. 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.8%. - In August, the loading volume of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.8% and a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [62]. - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month-on-month increase of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 27.4%. - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [65]. - Energy Storage - In September, the production of energy storage batteries was 50.67 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 42.3%. - In July, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.83 GW, a month-on-month increase of 27.6% and a year-on-year increase of 44.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.7 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 37.9% and a year-on-year increase of 60.1% [70]. - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of smartphones in China was 100.4 million, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. - In August, the production of microcomputers in China was 27.69 million, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [73]. 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore has declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate has dropped by $29/ton, and the price of lithium mica has dropped by 90 yuan/ton [78]. 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 1,580 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 3,262 tons, the downstream's inventory increased by 3,072 tons, and other inventories decreased by 1,390 tons [83]. - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 686 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 115 tons [84]. 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Sell short at high prices or buy put options after the volatility decreases. - Operating range: 65,000 - 77,000. - Overall, the supply remains at a high level, the expectation of supply contraction weakens, downstream actively stocks up, inventory flows smoothly from top to bottom, and the inventory pressure of smelters is not significant. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Jiangxi and the downstream stockpiling situation [88].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Although the current urea price is fluctuating downward due to strong supply and weak demand, from the perspectives of valuation and drivers, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long at low prices after the spot price stabilizes. The current urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also at a relatively low level, so the urea valuation is not expensive. There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: on the supply side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - fashioned plants, and on the demand side, there is an expectation of improved exports. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices (Closing Prices) - UR01 in Shanxi: 1663 yuan/ton on September 12, down 8 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.48% [1]. - UR05: 1718 yuan/ton on September 12, down 1 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.06% [1]. - UR09: 1570 yuan/ton on September 12, down 25 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 1.57% [1]. Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule) - Shandong: 1660 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Henan: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, down 10 yuan from September 11, a relative change of - 0.60% [1]. - Hebei: 1670 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Northeast: 1680 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. - Jiangsu: 1650 yuan/ton on September 12, unchanged from September 11 [1]. Basis and Spreads - Shandong spot - UR: - 58 yuan/ton on September 12, up 1 yuan from September 11 [1]. - 01 - 05 spread: - 55 yuan/ton on September 12, down 7 yuan from September 11 [1]. Upstream Costs - Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 880 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Downstream Prices - Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. - Melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5100 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively on September 12 compared with September 11 [1]. Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1676 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1661 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1663 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1667 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300585 lots [1]. Trading Strategy Focus on the opportunity to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [1].