Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The industrial silicon price has declined, while the polysilicon price has remained high and stable. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase significantly in August due to the increase in furnace openings by silicon enterprises. The polysilicon production is also expected to rise, but the demand for silicon wafers may decline. The organic silicon industry has a certain price increase and strong price - holding intention, while the aluminum - silicon alloy industry has weak demand and declining prices. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon - **Cost and Profit**: In the southwest production area, the power cost has decreased during the wet season, while the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. Overall, the cost side has weak support for the silicon price. The average profit of industrial silicon 553 and 421 in June was - 2,361 yuan/ton and - 2,049 yuan/ton respectively, showing a month - on - month recovery [3][37]. - **Supply**: The number of furnace openings of silicon enterprises has increased. In Xinjiang, the previously reduced - production enterprises have recovered; in Yunnan and Sichuan, the operation has increased steadily. It is expected that more silicon enterprises will increase furnace openings in August, with a significant overall increase in supply [3]. - **Demand**: The incremental demand mainly comes from the polysilicon sector. In July, the output of polysilicon is expected to increase to around 110,000 tons, and there will still be some growth in August. The organic silicon industry has a weak purchase of industrial silicon due to an accident in an individual enterprise, and the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures price has remained high, and the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase. As the price rises, part of the factory inventory has transferred to the intermediate link and futures - cash traders, and the social inventory has decreased [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Recently, with the weakening of macro - sentiment and the increase in enterprise operation, the silicon price support has weakened, and it is expected to maintain a weak consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton [3]. 2. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, mainly in the southwest and Qinghai regions, and some enterprises carried out maintenance. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons. In August, the wet season and high prices will further stimulate the start - up of polysilicon bases, and the monthly output is expected to increase to about 130,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The price of downstream silicon wafers has continued to rise, but the silicon wafer quotation cannot cover the full cost. It is expected that the production schedule in July will drop to about 52GW. The battery orders are short - term positive, and the component end has shown a situation of rising first and then falling [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, the total polysilicon inventory was 229,000 tons, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.15GW. As of August 1, the total polysilicon futures warehouse receipts were 3,200 lots [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Last week, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the polysilicon price has declined after reaching a high. Fundamentally, the supply side of silicon materials has a strong expectation of incremental supply, and the demand side has no major changes. It is expected that the price will maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 40,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Organic Silicon - **Supply**: In July, the DMC start - up rate was 67.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.22 percentage points, and the output was 199,800 tons, showing a month - on - month decline [92]. - **Price**: The organic silicon price has rebounded. As of August 1, the average price of DMC was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,750 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average price of silicone oil was 14,400 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month [97]. - **Market Situation**: The monomer factories have received orders smoothly, and due to the low factory inventory pressure, they have a strong intention to hold prices. However, because the downstream inventory is sufficient, the purchase intention has declined after restocking [97]. 4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply**: On the week of July 31, the start - up rate of primary aluminum - silicon alloy was 54.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the start - up rate of recycled aluminum - silicon alloy was 53.1%, remaining flat month - on - month [106]. - **Price**: The aluminum - silicon alloy price has declined. As of August 1, the average price of ADC12 was 20,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%; the average price of A356 was 20,950 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [109].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 775.55 yuan/g, with a change of 8.37 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 47,492, and the open interest was 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 111 yuan/kg. The trading volume of the futures active contract was - 78,029, and the open interest was 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units) [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a change of 12.60 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 132,941, and the open interest was 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces) [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.34 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 44,731, and the open interest was 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces) [1]. News and Information - **Gold**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will choose a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in July. The US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025. The Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still raise rates by the end of 2025 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut, and with global central banks continuing to buy gold, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to buy on price dips. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 775.55 yuan/gram, with a trading volume of 47,492 and an open interest of 206,958. The inventory was 35,889 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 3.28, and the basis was - 2.33 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 9,039 yuan/kg, with a trading volume of - 78,029 and an open interest of 371,051. The inventory was 1,174,273 (in ten - gram units). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 17, and the basis was - 40 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 3,428.60 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 132,941 and an open interest of 334,342. The inventory was 37,762,393.92 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 53.50, and the basis was - 69.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price was 38.33 dollars/ounce, with a trading volume of 44,731 and an open interest of 109,684. The inventory was 506,602,108.72 (in troy ounces). The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 0.22, and the basis was 0.32 [1] - **Gold and Silver Price Ratios**: Shanghai gold futures to Shanghai silver futures was 83.90; Shanghai gold spot to Shanghai silver spot was 86.32; New York gold futures to New York silver futures was 91.56; London gold spot to London silver spot was 91.72 [1] - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 514.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude was 68.68 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 66.24 dollars/barrel, Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was 9,708.50 dollars/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,204 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was - 7.50 yuan/ton. Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and others also had corresponding closing prices and changes [1] 3.2 News and Information - **Gold - related News**: The EU has suspended trade counter - measures against the US for six months. Switzerland is facing a negotiation "race" to reduce a 39% tariff, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy. Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new Bureau of Labor Statistics director in three to four days [1] - **Macroeconomic and Central Bank Policies**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in July. Due to possible significant downward revisions or far - below - expected non - farm payrolls in July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing expectations of rate cuts in September, October, and December. The European Central Bank may cut rates once by the end of 2025, the Bank of England may cut rates 2 - 3 times by the end of 2025, and the Bank of Japan may still have a rate hike expectation by the end of 2025 [1] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,150 - 3,250 and resistance around 3,500 - 3,700; for Shanghai gold, support is around 730 - 760 and resistance is around 800 - 850. For London silver, support is around 34 - 38 and resistance is around 37 - 40; for Shanghai silver, support is around 8,500 - 8,700 and resistance is around 9,100 - 9,500 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has heightened expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards. As a result, there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to decline. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions. They should pay attention to the support levels around 76,000 - 78,000 and the resistance levels around 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, the support levels around 3,300 - 9,500 and the resistance levels around 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and the support levels around 4.0 - 4.2 and the resistance levels around 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper. (View score: -1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330, down 70 from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, down 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420, up 90 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 90, up 160; the spot premium/discount in Guangzhou was - 55, down 40; in North China, it remained at - 120; in East China, it was 30, down 5 [2]. - **Spread (Near - Month vs. Far - Month)**: The spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai copper was 20, up 30; between the first and the second continuous contracts was 0, down 10; between the second and the third continuous contracts was 80, up 20 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5, up 75.5; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 139,575 tons; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 52.73, down 3.48; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 139.23, up 3.70; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0682, down 0.07 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456, up 0.03; the total inventory was 261,180, an increase of 3,265 [2]. Industry News - **Corporate News**: Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume at its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce copper concentrate processing through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing of electronic waste, aiming to increase the utilization ratio of recycled materials and profitability. The 2025 cathode copper production forecast will be announced separately (Onahama's copper rough - smelting capacity is 230,000 tons) [2]. - **Regional News**: Peruvian informal miners have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to disagreements. The government refused to adjust the August 17 deadline and required miners to transfer explosives to a formal "powder magazine". About 20,000 miners who cannot meet the deadline will be excluded from the government's work regularization plan [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: European high - quality scrap steel export restrictions, uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations, negative price differences between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the closure of the scrap copper import window may lead to a decrease in domestic scrap copper production (import) in August. Many copper smelters around the world are facing production adjustments, such as the shutdown of Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines, the suspension of Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia, and the suspension of Glencore's Altonorte smelter in Chile. Some projects are under construction or planned to increase production, like Jiangxi Hongyuan's second - phase project and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou [3]. - **Demand Side**: The traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand [3]. Inventory Situation The inventory of electrolytic copper in domestic bonded areas has decreased compared to last week, while the domestic social inventory, LME inventory, and COMEX copper inventory have all increased [3]. Investment Strategy Investors are recommended to hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper as mentioned above [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate market remain weak, but there is still uncertainty in supply - side fluctuations. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the near - month contract was 69,200 yuan/ton (+700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 68,920 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the continuous - two contract was 69,040 yuan/ton (-200), and the closing price of the continuous - three contract was 69,040 yuan/ton (-200) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 247,898 lots (-92,772), and the open interest was 207,770 lots (-8,333) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipt was 12,603 tons (+5,998), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while the downstream inventory was tight [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and continuous - one contracts was 280 yuan/ton (+700), the spread between the continuous - one and continuous - two contracts was - 120 yuan/ton (+200), and the spread between the continuous - two and continuous - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spread between them was 2,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. Cost and Supply - **Cost**: The price of spodumene concentrate increased to 760 US dollars/ton (+5), while the price of mica remained flat [1]. - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate decreased last week [1]. Downstream Demand - **Last Week**: The production of lithium iron phosphate decreased, while the production of ternary materials increased. The production of power batteries decreased [1]. - **August**: The production of lithium carbonate decreased, while the production of lithium hydroxide increased. The production of energy - storage batteries increased [1]. Terminal Demand - **New Energy Vehicles**: In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to grow year - on - year but declined month - on - month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers were 1.18 million, a year - on - year increase of 25% and a month - on - month decrease of 4% [1]. - **3C Products**: The shipment volume was average [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been rising, indicating that there is still room for the Shanghai copper price to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,330 yuan, down 70 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 62,389 lots, a decrease of 18,554 lots; the open interest was 163,558 lots, a decrease of 4,113 lots; the inventory was 20,348 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,420 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai copper basis was 90 yuan, up 160 yuan from the previous day. The spot discounts in Guangzhou, North China, and East China were -55 yuan, -120 yuan, and 30 yuan respectively, with changes of -40 yuan, 0 yuan, and -5 yuan [2]. - The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed different changes. For example, the spread between the near - month and the first continuous contract was 20 yuan, up 30 yuan [2]. - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 4, 2025, was 9,708.5 US dollars, up 75.5 US dollars from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, a decrease of 139,575 tons [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 4, 2025, was 4.456 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars from the previous day, and the total inventory was 261,180 tons, an increase of 3,265 tons [2]. Industry News - Mitsubishi Materials Corporation is considering reducing the copper concentrate processing volume of its Onahama Smelting Co., Ltd. After the scheduled equipment maintenance from October to November this year, it plans to reduce the copper concentrate processing volume through partial facility shutdowns while maintaining the processing volume of electronic waste to improve the utilization rate of recycled materials and profitability [2]. - Non - formal miners in Peru have suspended negotiations with the government and may resume protests due to differences in the negotiations. The government refuses to adjust the August 17 deadline and requires miners to transfer explosives to formal "powder magazines" [2]. Supply and Demand Situation - European high - quality scrap steel exports are restricted, and Chinese importers can only purchase steel shot or brass. Uncertainty in Sino - US tariff negotiations has led to a low direct import of US scrap copper by traders. The negative price difference between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper has weakened the economic viability of scrap copper, closing the scrap copper import window [2][3]. - Some copper smelters at home and abroad are facing production adjustments. For example, Glencore's PASIAR copper smelter in the Philippines has stopped production, and Zhongkuang Resources' Isunebag plant in Namibia has suspended production due to a shortage of copper concentrate supply [3]. - Some new projects are under construction or planned to be put into production. For example, Jianggang Hongyuan's second - phase project with an annual output of 150,000 tons of cathode copper started construction in Guixi at the end of March, and the 200,000 - ton high - purity copper project in Baotou Jinshan Economic Development Zone started construction on June 24 [3]. Investment Strategy - Due to the expected increase in domestic crude copper production and the possible decrease in electrolytic copper production and import in August, and the increase in total electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, it is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3].

免费声明:宏源规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的规定签管机构,已具备知货交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料、本公 司时这些信息的准确性和党整理不作任何保证。也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告的采购客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准冲进议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示：期市有风险 2市需速使, 吴金恒(F03100418 Z0021125),联系电话:010-82293229 镍与不锈钢日评20250805:"反内卷"情绪变化快、波动大 | 交易日期(日) | 较昨日变化 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-01 | 2025-07-28 | 近两周走势 | 5 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 120490.00 | 119470.00 | 121500.00 | 1,020.00 | 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Title - Natural and Synthetic Rubber Daily Review 20250805: Natural Rubber to Fluctuate, Synthetic Rubber to Weaken [2] Market Data Summary Natural Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 14365, 14310, and 15585 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 252447, 329655, and -77208 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 190262, -1952, and 188310 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 177630, 182020, and 176640 respectively [1] Synthetic Rubber - Closing prices on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 11395, 11455, and 12415 respectively [1] - Volumes on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 160791, 55081, and 73266 respectively [1] - Open interests on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 33939, 31806, and 49311 respectively [1] - Registered warehouse receipts on 2025-07-25, 2025-08-01, and 2025-08-04 were 10340, 9840, and 10540 respectively [1] Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In major natural rubber producing regions such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, there will be precipitation in the coming days. In China, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan will also see rainfall, while Hainan will have less [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from the previous week, and that of styrene-butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from the previous week [1] Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all-steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, down 3.94% from the previous week, and that of semi-steel tires in China was 74.63%, down 0.87% from the previous week [1] - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market reached 2.904 million units, an increase of 217,700 units from the previous month. Passenger car sales were 2.336 million units, an increase of 184,300 units from the previous month, and truck sales were 316,000 units, an increase of 24,500 units from the previous month [1] Cost and Inventory Analysis Cost - As of August 4, 2025, the purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hat Yai market of Songkhla Province, Thailand, was 62 Thai baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan per ton, a decrease of 650 yuan per ton from the previous day [1] - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, combined with the decline in the employment data of the refinery, the price of crude oil is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased [1] Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from the previous week, the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from the previous week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from the previous week [1] Core View - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate due to increased precipitation affecting tapping and a decline in tire operating rates [1] - Synthetic rubber prices may weaken due to falling raw material costs and rising inventories [1] - Attention should be paid to the support levels of natural rubber around 1880-14000 and the resistance levels around 15000-15200, and the support levels of butadiene rubber around 10800-11000 and the resistance levels around 11700-11900 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of natural rubber may fluctuate due to increased precipitation in production areas affecting the tapping process and the decline in tire operating rates. The price of synthetic rubber may fluctuate weakly due to the decrease in raw material costs and inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene rubber [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of natural rubber was 15,585. The trading volume on August 1 was 329,655 lots, and the open interest on the same day was 211,258 lots. The registered warrant volume on August 4 was 176,640 [1]. - The basis of natural rubber showed different spreads in different regions. For example, the Tianjin - Shanghai standard rubber SCRWF daily spread was -50 on August 4, and the Shandong - Shanghai spread was 50 [1]. - The monthly spreads of natural rubber, such as near - month to continuous - first, continuous - first to continuous - second, and continuous - first to continuous - third, also had corresponding changes [1]. Synthetic Rubber Market Data - On August 4, 2025, the closing price of synthetic rubber was 12,415. The trading volume on August 1 was 73,266 lots, and the open interest on the same day was 49,311 lots. The registered warrant volume on August 4 was 10,540 [1]. - The basis of synthetic rubber and its monthly spreads also had specific changes [1]. Supply - side Situation - In natural rubber production areas, there will be precipitation in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, and domestic areas such as Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan in the coming days, with less precipitation in Hainan [1]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber was 69.33%, up 2.9% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, the same as last week. The operation of synthetic rubber - related product plants remained relatively stable [1]. Inventory - side Situation - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 208,430 tons, a decrease of 2,380 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 19,600 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 88,900 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week [1]. - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber was 12,988 tons, an increase of 12 tons from last week [1]. Cost - side Situation - Global natural rubber supply has entered the peak season, and major domestic and foreign production areas are fully tapped. On August 4, 2025, the purchase price of glue in the Hat Yai market, Songkhla Province, Thailand was 62 Thai baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and the daily purchase price of natural rubber glue in the Hainan market was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 650 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - OPEC+ decided to increase production in September. Coupled with the decline in employment data, the crude oil price is expected to weaken, and the price of upstream raw materials has decreased. As of August 4, 2025, the average daily price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 7,022.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Demand - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 61.06%, a decrease of 3.94% from last week, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese semi - steel tires was 74.63%, a decrease of 0.87% from last week [1]. - In June, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.904 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales of passenger cars were 2.336 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales of trucks were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The demand for tire matching has increased [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material - lead concentrate remains in short supply. The processing fees for domestic lead concentrates rich in gold, silver and high - silver content silver - lead ores have decreased, and the supply of imported lead concentrates rich in precious metals and small metals is tight with a significant decline in tender prices. The supply of scrap batteries is still tight, but as the lead price drops, the losses of secondary lead smelters widen, and the scrap battery prices have loosened [3]. - On the supply side, the primary lead smelters that had undergone maintenance are resuming production. For secondary lead, the start - up rate is slowly increasing with the expectation of the peak season, but the raw material price decline is less than that of the lead price, and the uncertainty of smelter start - up is high [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream shows a differentiated trend. The demand for electric bicycles is good, and enterprises are increasing their purchases of lead ingots. The export of lead - acid batteries for complete vehicles is affected by weak demand and tariffs, and the start - up rate has not improved significantly [3]. - In terms of trading and inventory, the price of secondary lead is inverted compared with electrolytic lead, and downstream buyers prefer electrolytic lead. Although the inventory of secondary lead plants is decreasing, the overall social inventory of lead ingots is still increasing [3]. - Considering the support from the raw material side, it is expected that the short - term decline space of the lead price is limited, and the operating range is expected to be between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to the start - up situation of secondary lead smelters under the conditions of cost inversion and raw material shortage [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 1.19% to 16,550 yuan/ton week - on - week. The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures decreased by 1.30% to 16,735 yuan/ton. The closing price (electronic trading) of London lead decreased by 2.30% to 1,974 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Basis**: No specific analysis of the basis is provided in the text other than showing the historical basis data graphs. 3.2 Raw Material Situation - **Lead Concentrate**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton week - on - week, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The expectation of tight concentrate supply remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 25, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 101.5 yuan/ton [25]. - **Scrap Batteries**: As of August 1, the average price of scrap batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As the lead price dropped, the losses of smelters widened, and the scrap battery prices slightly followed the downward trend [39]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Primary Lead**: The start - up rate of primary lead increased to 63.9% week - on - week. The total weekly output of major primary lead smelters increased from 46,875 tons in the week of July 25 to 51,325 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of production after maintenance in some regions [26][31]. - **Secondary Lead**: The start - up rate of secondary lead increased by 3.7 percentage points to 44.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 47,500 tons, showing an upward trend. A large - scale smelter in Inner Mongolia resumed production and increased output, driving the significant increase in the start - up rate. However, the supply of scrap batteries is still tight, and some smelters said they would stop production when the raw materials are insufficient to support production [49]. 3.4 Demand Side The start - up rate of lead - acid batteries remained flat at 71.86%. The electric bicycle industry has entered the traditional peak season, and some enterprises have increased production and built inventories. Especially after the lead price dropped, the purchasing enthusiasm improved significantly. The production of automotive lead - acid batteries is mainly based on sales [55]. 3.5 Import and Export - As of July 25, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of August 1, the import profit was - 528.2 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [65]. 3.6 Inventory - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of July 31, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 73,000 tons, showing an increase. Although the inventory of mainstream smelters decreased, the overall social inventory increased due to the phased increase in supply [75]. - **Exchange Inventories**: As of August 1, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 63,300 tons, showing a week - on - week increase. As of July 31, the LME inventory was 275,300 tons, also showing an increase [78]. - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The table shows the production, export, import, consumption and inventory data of primary lead and secondary lead from August 2024 to June 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different months [79].