Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] Core View - Crude oil prices continued to rebound under the stimulus of news such as increased US sanctions on Russia, driving up the energy sector including PG. However, the fundamentals of the LPG market remained largely unchanged, with a loose supply - demand pattern. The industry was waiting for the results of China - US trade negotiations. Although the PG futures followed the crude oil rebound, the spot market reaction was relatively flat. Given the current window period of undecided major macro - events and frequent news disturbances, caution was advised [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On October 23, regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4300 - 4360 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3830 - 4010 yuan/ton; North China market, 4100 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4250 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region market, 4370 - 4630 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4480 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 548 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 553 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4278 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) and 4317 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 542 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 547 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4232 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) and 4271 yuan/ton (up 37 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Spot prices: North China and Shandong civil LPG prices rose yesterday. East China civil LPG and ether - after carbon four mainstream transaction prices remained stable, with a stable market atmosphere and downstream procurement on demand [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupplied pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless - steel market has weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, so it is expected to remain in range - bound oscillations [3][5]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,100 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a 0.19% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 93,921 (+20,070) lots, and the open interest was 127,005 (+5,694) lots. The main contract showed a volatile pattern of opening low and closing high, with a fluctuation range of only 0.44%. Supported by the expectation of loose liquidity and strong new - energy demand, along with the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the price oscillated upward [1]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and prices are stable. There is a certain price difference between supply and demand in the domestic market. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipments are coming to an end. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories have recently been purchasing raw materials [2]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand increased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,881 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 250,854 (-24) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventories and oversupply, it is expected that nickel prices will remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless - Steel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,385 (+52,175) lots, and the open interest was 166,411 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong nickel price, the main contract showed a volatile and strong trend with increasing volume and price, but there was a short - term oversold rebound. The continuous reduction of open interest in the main contract for 5 days reflects strong risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the market doubts the sustainability of the rebound [3]. Spot - The driving effect of futures on spot is not obvious, and actual trading remains light. Spot prices remain low. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 934.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] Core View - Overseas premiums have strengthened further, LME inventories have continued to decline, and the risk of warehouse receipts has intensified. The export profit of refined zinc in China has continued to expand, and the profit of overseas selling for delivery has emerged, which will stimulate later exports and help reduce domestic social inventories. The domestic smelters are still actively purchasing domestic ores, and the domestic ore TC has continued to decline. Although imported ores are still expensive due to the internal and external zinc price ratio, there is also a possibility that the processing fees will follow suit. In the spot market, with the opening of the export window, the later social inventory is expected to accumulate less than expected, or even show a seasonal de - stocking trend, and the actual consumption performance exceeds expectations. Although smelting still has profits, the comprehensive smelting profit has narrowed due to the decline of domestic TC. If this situation persists or the sulfuric acid price drops, it will also hit the smelting enthusiasm, and the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. The macro - positive factors still exist, and the previous bearish logic of zinc prices has begun to change. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is $338.74 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the SMM Shanghai zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 210 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong zinc spot premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin zinc spot premium/discount is - 55 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,030 yuan/ton and closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 164,360 lots, and the open interest throughout the trading day was 124,740 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,345 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,025 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons compared with the previous period. As of October 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared with the previous trading day. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Report's Core View - Although the US Department of Agriculture has not released the latest data, Brazil's current export situation is good, significantly higher than the historical average, which has put downward pressure on CBOT soybean prices. Meanwhile, the increase in Brazilian exports has led to sufficient domestic supply, and the soybean inventory is still rising. It is expected that the supply will remain abundant in the future. The focus of the market will be on policy changes, and the import of new - season US soybeans will affect the market supply and demand around the Spring Festival [3] - Domestically, in the corn market, the new - season corn in the Northeast and North China regions is being concentratedly supplied. The quality and yield of corn in the Northeast are good, and farmers are actively selling, leading to price cuts. In North China, most of the corn is wet, with only a small amount of dried corn on the market. On the demand side, the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing enterprises is acceptable, and feed enterprises with low inventories are more willing to purchase. Currently, the supply exceeds demand, and the price of new grain is generally low. Future attention should be paid to national policies [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2938 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton (+1.84%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2339 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+1.39%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 + 32, down 33 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 28, down 3 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2920 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 18, down 13 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 211, down 2 from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the soybean export volume in October 2025 will be 734 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 731 million tons, a 65.7% increase from 443 million tons in October last year, and also higher than the 697 million tons in September this year. China accounted for 93% (650 million tons) of Brazil's soybean exports in September. From January to September this year, China accounted for 79.9% of Brazil's soybean exports, higher than the historical average of 74%. The soybean export volume in the first 10 months of this year will reach 102 billion tons, compared with 93.49 billion tons in the same period last year. The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association predicts that the soybean output in the 2025/26 season will reach a record 178.5 billion tons, a 3.9% increase from the revised output of 171.8 billion tons last year [2] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2140 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2450 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C01 + 40, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS01 + 100, down 24 from the previous day [4] Recent Market Information - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the corn export volume in October 2025 will be 657 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 646 million tons, lower than the 698 million tons in September, but a 15.9% increase from 567 million tons in October last year. The estimated corn export volume from January to October this year is 3052 million tons, compared with 2929 million tons in the same period last year. ANEC estimates that the corn export volume in Brazil this year will be 4500 million tons, higher than 3780 million tons in 2024 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Inter - period: On - the - fence - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices have slightly increased, accompanied by a rise in the futures market, and spot trading has improved. Some regions are in the process of agricultural autumn fertilization, and the production of compound fertilizer for autumn fertilization is winding down. The operating rates in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui have increased as some previously shut - down plants have resumed production. The demand for compound fertilizer for winter wheat is mainly for inventory clearance, and due to heavy autumn rains, the demand for winter wheat fertilization has been postponed to mid - to - late October. The operating rate of melamine has declined, with only rigid demand for procurement. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose with the release of new production capacity. As the weather improves, the agricultural demand for urea has increased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated this week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast are gradually starting up, and attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and September and October are export windows. The export volume in September was 1.37 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to September 2025 was 2.8123 million tons. There are both port collection and departure activities. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. A total of 3.66 million tons of supplies were received from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR price was $402 per ton on the west coast and $395 per ton on the east coast. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to subsequent export dynamics [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report includes figures on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] 2. Urea Output - The report presents figures on urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [21][24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures on production cost, spot production profit, futures production profit, national capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and gas - based capacity utilization are included, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [27][28][29] 4. Urea Off - shore Prices and Export Profit - The report shows figures on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and futures export profit, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [33][37][39] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Figures on compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days are presented, with data from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes figures on upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume, sourced from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][51][57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the pig market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [3] - For the egg market, the strategy is also cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views - The recent firmness of live pig spot prices is supported by the hot demand for secondary fattening, but it will lead to an increase in pig supply in a few months, causing the "seesaw effect" in the market, with near - term contracts and spot prices firm and forward contracts weakening due to expected supply increase [2] - For eggs, after the previous inventory clearance, the current consumer demand is weak in the short - term, and the large supply pressure during the seasonal consumption off - season suppresses the spot price, with the market sentiment being pessimistic and the spot price expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 12,200 yuan/ton, a change of - 20.00 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.87 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.15 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.53 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product prices: On October 23, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.68 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.79 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.62 yuan/kg, down 0.6%; beef was 66.41 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.82 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; eggs were 7.42 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; white - striped chicken was 17.72 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - Secondary fattening, mainly carried out by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leads to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply, causing the "seesaw effect" in the market [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Egg Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3027 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 102.00 yuan (+ 3.49%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin, up 0.09; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.53 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On October 23, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.24 days, down 0.03 days (- 2.36%); the circulation - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.08 days (- 5.71%) [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - After the previous inventory clearance due to improved weather and high replenishment enthusiasm of traders, the current consumer demand is weak with no short - term positive factors, and each link is mainly digesting the previous inventory [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish, with the spot price expected to fluctuate weakly due to large supply pressure during the seasonal consumption off - season [5]

铝期货方面：2025-10-23日沪铝主力合约开于21105元/吨，收于21165元/吨，较上一交易日变化155元/吨，最 高价达21180元/吨，最低价达到21070元/吨。全天交易日成交167345手，全天交易日持仓286749手。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-24 氧化铝缺乏跟随反弹的动力 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21040元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-10元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-10元/吨；中原A00铝价20910元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-140元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录20950元/吨，较上一交易日变化60元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-100元/吨。 库存方面，截止2025-10-23，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存61.8万吨，较上一期变化-0.7万吨，仓单库存66894 吨，较上一交易日变化-376吨，LME铝库存477675吨，较上一交易日变化-4850吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-10-23SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2855元/吨，山东价格录得2815元/吨，河南价格录得 2875 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On the port side, the port inventory rebounded on Thursday. Geopolitical conflicts have brought risks to Iranian cargoes, and the willingness of mainstream warehouses and downstream enterprises to receive Iranian ships may be affected, but there has been no obvious decrease in arrivals yet. The Marjan in Iran had a temporary technical shutdown, and attention should be paid to the subsequent winter inspection plan [2]. - On the inland side, the coal - based methanol operation rate has significantly increased from the previous bottom, and the inland inventory has continued to build up from a low level. The operation rates of traditional downstream industries such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE are low [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][11]. 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][34]. 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [6][36][38]. 4. Regional Price Differences - The report provides price differences between different regions, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and Lunan, etc. [6][40][47]. 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][57][59]. Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. - For inter - period trading, it is advisable to go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the spread is low. - For cross - variety trading, it is recommended to short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the spread is high [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [2] - Iron Ore: Oscillating [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Oscillating [7] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [8] 2) Core Views - The supply - demand of steel has improved, and steel prices are oscillating upwards. However, inventory pressure cannot be ignored, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel mill production cuts and inventory reduction [1]. - The port inventory of iron ore has increased, and the price is oscillating. The overall valuation of iron ore is high, and the demand shows signs of weakening. Attention should be paid to the negative impact of the Simandou project shipments and steel mill production cuts on iron ore prices [3]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has contracted month - on - month, and the prices are rebounding. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the market's acceptance of the second - round price increase of coke is limited. Attention should be paid to steel mill production cuts, environmental protection, and Mongolian coal customs clearance [5][6]. - The shipping cost of thermal coal remains high, and the price is continuing to run strongly. Although the supply of market coal is slightly affected by safety inspections, the overall impact is small. The winter storage demand and non - power coal demand are strong, so the short - term price is stable and bullish [8]. 3) Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures rose slightly. The production and consumption of the five major steel products increased month - on - month, and the inventory decreased month - on - month. The inventory reduction in the building materials peak season is less than in previous years, and the high - production and high - inventory contradiction of plates is still prominent [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the port inventory increased month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures prices rebounded significantly. Due to the situation in Mongolia, the customs clearance volume decreased, and the spot resources at ports were in short supply. The supply of coking coal is tight, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is restricted by profit compression [5]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, safety inspections are strict, supply is tightened, and prices are rising. At ports, the inventory accumulation is slow, and the shipping cost remains high, supporting the price. The price advantage of imported coal is obvious, and the downstream bidding is increasing [8]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear strategy in the text, but factors such as coal mine safety supervision, port inventory accumulation, and coal consumption need to be focused on [9].

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9132.00元/吨，环比变化-32元，幅度-0.35%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8188.00 元/吨，环比变化-50.00元，幅度-0.61%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9757.00元/吨，环比变化-77.00元，幅度-0.78%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9000.00元/吨，环比变化-140.00元，幅度-1.53%，现货基差P01-132.00，环比变化 -108.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8380.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元/吨，幅度-0.83%，现货基差Y01+192.00， 环比变化-20.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10070.00元/吨，环比变化-70.00元，幅度-0.69%，现货基差 OI01+313.00，环比变化+7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：国际谷物理事会（IGC）最新月报显示，预计2025/26年度全球大豆产量将同比上一年度减少 100万吨至4.28亿吨，贸易量增加200万吨至1.87亿吨，消费量减少100万吨至4.3亿吨；结转库存减少400万吨至7900 万吨。据农业农村部监测，10月23日"农 ...