FICC日报 | 2025-07-01 制造业PMI回升，指数上涨 市场分析 制造业PMI回升。国内方面，国家统计局公布，6月份，我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为49.7%、50.5%和 50.7%，比上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升。装备制造业、高技术制造业和消费品行业PMI 均连续两个月位于扩张区间。海外方面，美联储博斯蒂克重申，他仍预计美联储今年会下调一次利率，同时指出 美联储在决定采取行动之前还有时间考虑最新的数据，同时他预计美联储明年将降息三次。 指数上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡回升，上证指数涨0.59%收于3444.43点，创业板指涨1.35%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，国防军工、传媒、通信、电子行业涨幅居前，仅银行、非银金融、交通运输行业收跌。当日 沪深两市成交金额小幅回落至1.5万亿元。海外市场，加拿大宣布撤回数字服务税，以推动与美国的贸易谈判重回 正轨。美国总统特朗普与加拿大总理卡尼已同意两国将重启谈判，并力争在7月21日前达成协议。美国三大股指全 线收涨，道指涨0.63%报44094.77点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差走势分化，IC、IM近月合约贴水 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has continued to weaken, but it will gain new support after full adjustment. The low-sulfur fuel oil market lacks a continuous upward drive [1][2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **High-sulfur fuel oil**: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.5% at 2990 yuan/ton. The spread structure has weakened significantly recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil, and Iranian exports may rebound. The demand for power generation in summer is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and refinery demand requires further adjustment of crack spreads. The increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial to the recovery of import demand [1] - **Low-sulfur fuel oil**: The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.61% at 3581 yuan/ton. Short-term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable. European refineries have switched production, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes in the Western region is low. The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil is at a low level. Singapore's bunker sales increased significantly in May, and short-term downstream bunker demand is good. In the medium term, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and domestic production is expected to pick up after the refinery maintenance season ends [2] Strategy - **High-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Low-sulfur**: Oscillation [3] - **Cross-variety**: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - **Cross-period**: None [3] - **Spot-futures**: None [3] - **Options**: None [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton or -0.09% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton or -0.12% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan/ton month-on-month). The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$79/ton (down $3/ton month-on-month), and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton month-on-month). The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons (down 7.7 tons month-on-month) according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons (down 3.1 tons month-on-month) according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, with low arrivals and significant inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 15 tons, and inventory may rise again [1]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: Domestically, the supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure shows a benign inventory reduction, but the circulating spot will be supplemented after the cancellation of warehouse receipts. Overseas, recent restarts of overseas plants indicate a loose supply, with concentrated arrivals in early July. The demand is currently strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers plan to conduct maintenance in early July, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is neutral. With increasing supply and decreasing demand, it shows a short - term weak performance, but the downside is limited. There are no cross - period or cross - variety strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 4,267 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,335 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 64 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was -$79/ton, and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was 17 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 International Price Difference - No specific content about international price difference is provided in the text. 3.4 Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - No specific content about downstream sales, production, and operating rate is provided in the text. 3.5 Inventory Data - The inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 54.5 tons according to CCF data on Mondays and 50.6 tons according to Longzhong data on Thursdays. The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 6.7 tons, and the planned arrival this week is 15 tons [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The refined nickel market is in a state of oversupply, with recent trading relatively sluggish. The short - term operation is advised to be postponed, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - The stainless steel market also has low market confidence. The short - term operation is advised to be postponed, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 30, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 120,700 yuan/ton and closed at 120,830 yuan/ton, a 0.17% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 86,158 lots, and the open interest was 76,791 lots. The contract showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the daily MACD red column area continued to expand. The 117,000 level is estimated to be a strong support in the medium - to - long - term. The spot market had mixed price changes, and the supply - surplus pattern remained unchanged. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,221 (-36.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 204,006 (-288) tons [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term operation is advised to be postponed to avoid systematic risks. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The estimated upper range is 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower range is 117,000 - 118,000. The strategy for single - side trading is range - bound operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis**: On June 30, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2508 opened at 12,590 yuan/ton and closed at 12,610 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 146,051 lots, and the open interest was 101,013 lots. The contract oscillated and declined, and the daily MACD red column area's expansion speed slowed down. The 12,400 level is estimated to be a strong support in the medium - to - long - term, and the 13,100 level is a resistance level. The spot market had weak trading and low confidence. The nickel - iron price was expected to be weak in the short - term [3]. - **Strategy**: The short - term operation is advised to be postponed. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging. The estimated upper range is 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower range is 12,400 - 12,500. The single - side trading strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].

买卖双方拉锯 铜价暂陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-30，沪铜主力合约开于 79520元/吨，收于 79870元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.06%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 79,630元/吨，收于 79,780 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.01%。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，日内为季度末，多数企业现货不参与采销，部分持货商持货保持挺价态度。早盘盘初铁峰类升水60-80 元/吨被抢，随后升水90-100元/吨。主流平水铜升水100-140元/吨，好铜升水140-160元/吨。BMK等升水40元/吨成 交不佳，非注册均升水报价，下游还盘贴水，然持货商出货意愿降低。 日内成交拉锯，月末几个交易日贸易商积 极收取低价货源，预计今日进入7月首个交易日现货报价仍然坚挺，但需注意月差走扩对现货升水的压制。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，昨日，在经济数据方面，美国芝加哥6月商业活动指数从5月份的40.5微降至40.4，低于43.0的预 期，为1月以来最低水平，意味着经济活动已连续19个月萎缩， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Neutral [5] - Alumina: Cautiously Bearish [5] - Aluminum Alloy: Neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The increase in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has led to a drop in the US dollar index and a rise in Shanghai aluminum prices. The alumina spot price has slightly weakened, and the smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton during the consumption off - season. Although the overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, the inventory increase is limited, and the absolute inventory value remains at a historically low level, with long - term attention to delivery risks [3]. - For alumina, the cost is stable, but the alumina plants are relatively pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low enthusiasm for bauxite procurement. The weekly production and inventory are both rising significantly, and the supply pressure at home and abroad remains unchanged in the long term. Currently, the delivery risk has been alleviated [4]. - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,580 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,690 yuan/ton [1]. - The opening price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract on June 30, 2025, was 20,575 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 20,580 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 167,837 lots and a position of 272,406 lots [1]. - As of June 30, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 468,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 345,750 tons, an increase of 550 tons from the previous day [1]. Market Analysis - The supply is stable in China, and the Middle East crisis has not affected Iranian electrolytic aluminum. The European natural gas inventory is in good condition. The overall consumption shows a marginal weakening trend, and inventory accumulation is expected in July, but the accumulation range is limited [3]. Strategy - For single - side trading, it is recommended to take a neutral stance. For arbitrage, a long - position in the positive spread of Shanghai aluminum is recommended [5]. Alumina Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,075 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,080 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,180 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton [2]. - The opening price of the alumina main contract on June 30, 2025, was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,985 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 253,492 lots and a position of 288,909 lots [2]. Market Analysis - A certain electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered 10,000 tons of alumina spot, and the winning bid price was between 3,370 - 3,410 yuan/ton, slightly higher than the previous transaction. The cost is stable, but alumina plants are pessimistic about the future price, resulting in low procurement enthusiasm for bauxite. The production and inventory are rising [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a cautiously bearish stance is recommended [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Market Data - On June 30, 2025, the Baotai civil aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,300 yuan/ton, and the mechanical aluminum scrap purchase price was 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai ADC12 quotation was 19,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The aluminum alloy social inventory was 26,000 tons, a weekly increase of 2,200 tons; the in - plant inventory was 82,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 100 tons; the total inventory was 108,800 tons, a weekly increase of 2,100 tons [2]. Market Analysis - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - season, with limited price increase space in the spot market. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost supports the price [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, a neutral stance is recommended. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on AD11 and short on AL11 [5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-01 现实及预期供给压力依旧不减 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-0.24 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌80元/吨至22490元/吨，SMM上 海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌35元/吨至80元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌60元/吨至22490元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至80元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌70元/吨至 22410元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-30沪锌主力合约开于22330元/吨，收于22495元/吨，较前一交易日上涨70元/吨，全天交易日成 交160924手，较前一交易日减少64900手，全天交易日持仓140186手，较前一交易日减少2242手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22530元/吨，最低点达到22330元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止2025-06-30，LME 锌库存为117475吨，较上一交易日减少1750吨。 市场分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading and position data of various market sectors on June 30, 2025, including changes in trading volume, position value, and trading - position ratios, reflecting the market liquidity situation of different sectors [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - position ratios, trading volume change rates, position quantities, position values, trading volumes, and trading amounts of various sectors, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] 2. Stock Index Plate - On June 30, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 419.937 billion yuan, a - 17.35% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 1001.352 billion yuan, a - 4.39% change; the trading - position ratio was 41.75%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the stock index plate [1][12][13] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 362.091 billion yuan, a + 8.43% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 874.609 billion yuan, a - 2.87% change; the trading - position ratio was 42.58%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the treasury bond plate [1][20][23] 4. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The base metals plate had a trading volume of 278.158 billion yuan, a - 9.34% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 409.516 billion yuan, a - 1.64% change; the trading - position ratio was 117.52%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 428.967 billion yuan, a + 6.04% change; the position value was 427.153 billion yuan, a - 2.43% change; the trading - position ratio was 106.03%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the metal plate [1][37][39] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 465.256 billion yuan, a + 0.62% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 387.537 billion yuan, a + 0.32% change; the trading - position ratio was 92.77%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [1][39][41] 6. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 300.795 billion yuan, a + 24.13% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 550.123 billion yuan, a - 1.02% change; the trading - position ratio was 48.32%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [1][52][54] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 238.173 billion yuan, a + 2.58% change from the previous trading day; the position value was 345.320 billion yuan, a + 0.10% change; the trading - position ratio was 70.10%. There are also data on the price changes, trading - position ratios, and capital changes of each variety in the black building materials plate [2][57][59]

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8330.00元/吨，环比变化-46元，幅度-0.55%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7984.00 元/吨，环比变化-18.00元，幅度-0.22%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9415.00元/吨，环比变化-51.00元，幅度-0.54%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8410.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.71%，现货基差P09+80.00，环比变化-14.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8160.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y09+176.00，环比变 化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9570.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.31%，现货基差OI09+155.00，环 比变化+21.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国4月用于生产生物柴油的豆油减少至8.29亿磅，3月为8.32亿磅。 豆油仍是美国生物柴油最大原料来源。针对行业分析师的调查显示，截至2025年6月26日当周，美国大豆出口检验 量料为15-40万吨，玉米出口检验量料为125-166.5万吨，小麦出口检验量料为2 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-07-01 主产国供应前景乐观，原糖期价再度重挫 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13740元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.15%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15117元/吨，较前一日变动+64元/吨，现货基差CF09+1377，较前一日变动+84；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+45元/吨，现货基差CF09+1414，较前一日变动+65。 近期市场资讯，2025年6月，国家棉花市场监测系统就棉花实播面积展开全国范围专项调查，样本涉及14个省（自 治区）、46个县（市、团场）、1700个定点信息联系户。调查结果显示，2025年全国棉花实播面积4580.3万亩，同比 增加270.7万亩，增幅6.3%。其中，新疆棉花实播面积为4102.0万亩，同比增加310.3万亩，增幅8.2%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，中东地缘政治缓和提振市场情绪，美元有所走弱，提振ICE美棉走高。6月USDA 供需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。 近期美棉 ...