Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Recent soybean harvest season in the US is approaching, with favorable weather conditions in the production areas, gradually realizing the expected high - yield, and the global soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China - US negotiation is the main focus for the future market. The consumption of palm oil during the two festivals has limited driving force, and the overall price of edible oils will continue to fluctuate [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9384.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68 yuan or +0.73% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8348.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9801.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9310.00 yuan/ton, a change of +110.00 yuan or +1.20%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 74.00, a change of +42.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8470.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was Y01 + 122.00, a change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.10%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 99.00, a change of -2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary - As of August 29, 2025 (Week 35), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 61.01 tons, an increase of 2.80 tons or 4.81% compared to the previous week [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high, and it is expected that oil mills will maintain a high operating rate, with the monthly soybean crushing volume around 9.5 million tons [2] - In August, Argentina's agricultural exports dropped by 25% year - on - year, and the total export value of the agricultural sector was 1.82 billion US dollars, a significant decrease of 55% compared to July [2] - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased again, reaching a high in more than two months. As of the end of Week 35 (August 30), the average operating rate of domestic major soybean oil mills was 67.26%, an increase of 3.23% compared to the previous week's 64.03%. The total soybean crushing volume of national oil mills was 2.5148 million tons, an increase of 120,900 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the crushing volume of domestic soybeans was 16,900 tons, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans was 2.4979 million tons. This week, the expected soybean processing volume will remain high at 2.5213 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.44% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, with insufficient decline in production, leading to continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices. The soda ash market may see increased production after the end of summer maintenance, and with new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance [1]. - The ferromanganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in a situation of over - supply. They need to suppress production through losses, and their prices will follow the fluctuations of the sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass: The glass futures market fell sharply yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market opened low and moved lower yesterday. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid restocking, and prices have generally declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass: Demand remains weak with no significant improvement, high inventory has great pressure to reduce, and production decline is insufficient due to remaining production profits in non - natural gas production lines, resulting in continued supply - demand contradictions and weak prices [1]. - Soda Ash: After the end of summer maintenance, production may gradually recover. With new capacity coming online in the second half of the year, demand is expected to weaken further, intensifying the supply - demand imbalance. The market needs to suppress capacity release through losses, and the premium in the futures market further suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis** - Ferromanganese: The sentiment in the ferromanganese futures market continued to cool yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with average trading volume [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market continued to fall yesterday. The main contract closed at 5,532 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%. The spot market sentiment is average, and prices have been slightly adjusted downward [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Ferromanganese: Production and sales have increased month - on - month, inventory has continued to decline, and costs have slightly decreased. However, the industry still has obvious over - supply, and production needs to be suppressed through losses [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Production and sales have increased, and factory inventory has decreased, but the absolute inventory is still high, suppressing prices. The industry also has obvious over - supply and needs to suppress production through losses [3]. - **Strategy** - Ferromanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

燃料油日报 | 2025-09-02 市场多空因素交织，短期方向仍不明朗 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.25%，报2832元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.49%，报3474 元/吨。 当前地缘与宏观形势仍不明朗，尤其俄乌和谈进展有限，原油端短期面临诸多不确定性，目前处于区间震荡走势， 并无明朗方向，FU、LU盘面也呈现窄幅波动状态。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于市场调整与再平衡的阶段，目前市场多空因素交织。具体来看，一方 面，中东高硫燃料油出口持续增加，发电需求旺季结束后可能还有进一步提升的空间；另一方面，由于美国制裁 加码及乌克兰无人机的袭击，伊朗与俄罗斯供应受限。高硫燃料油短期市场矛盾有限，未来如果发电旺季结束后 市场继续转松，可能需要裂解价差进一步回调来吸引炼厂端的增量需求。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，近期西区套利供应再度收紧，其中巴西低硫燃料油出口 出现下滑。短期来看，市场结构仍相对稳固，但也无太强驱动。在中期视角下，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被 替代、剩余产能较多的矛盾，因此虽估值下方存在一定支撑，向上阻力也较大。 宏观风险、关税风险 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The polyolefin market shows a narrow - range downward trend. The restart of previously overhauled devices and new capacity releases lead to an obvious increase in supply. The supply side has certain pressure as upstream inventory transfers downstream, with a slight decrease in producers' inventory and an increase in mid - stream inventory. The cost - side support is weak, and the demand side is slowly rising but lacks new orders in the short term, resulting in limited upward - driving force [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7270 yuan/ton (-17), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6965 yuan/ton (-9). The LL North China spot price is 7180 yuan/ton (-50), the LL East China spot price is 7190 yuan/ton (-110), and the PP East China spot price is 6850 yuan/ton (-50). The LL North China basis is -90 yuan/ton (-33), the LL East China basis is -80 yuan/ton (-93), and the PP East China basis is -115 yuan/ton (-41) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 78.7% (+0.0%), and PP operating rate is 80.2% (+2.0%). PE oil - based production profit is 315.2 yuan/ton (+17.8), PP oil - based production profit is -324.8 yuan/ton (+17.8), and PDH - based PP production profit is 2.2 yuan/ton (-59.9) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -150.0 yuan/ton (-20.6), PP import profit is -550.0 yuan/ton (-50.6), and PP export profit is 26.2 US dollars/ton (+6.3) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 17.5% (+2.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.3% (+0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (-0.3%) [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream inventory transfers downstream, producers' inventory decreases slightly, and mid - stream inventory accumulates [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is that the unilateral strategy is to expect a sideways movement, while the cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not recommended [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The asphalt market continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with support at the lower end of the market. The futures market may continue to move within a range, with support at the bottom but insufficient upward momentum [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On September 1st, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,540 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.1% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 109,607 lots, a decrease of 10,112 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 164,623 lots, an increase of 7,881 lots [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were as follows: Northeast 3,806 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,450 - 3,820 yuan/ton; South China 3,490 - 3,530 yuan/ton; East China 3,560 - 3,750 yuan/ton. The price in the North China market declined slightly, while prices in the Northwest, Shandong, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions increased, and prices in other regions remained generally stable. The average domestic asphalt price increased due to the price adjustment of major refineries at the end of the month. However, the demand for high - priced products was weak due to poor project funding, and the peak - season characteristics on the demand side were not obvious. On the supply side, the growth was limited, the operating rate of plants decreased again, the inventory remained low, and the destocking trend continued, with limited overall pressure [2] Strategy - The unilateral strategy for asphalt futures is to expect a sideways movement, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3]

甲醇日报 | 2025-09-02 关注伊朗装置后续检修可能 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤415元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润740元/吨（-5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 蒙北线2045元/吨（-5），内蒙北线基差260元/吨（-29），内蒙南线2040元/吨（-40）；山东临沂2310元/吨（-8），鲁 南基差125元/吨（-32）；河南2230元/吨（+0），河南基差45元/吨（-24）；河北2265元/吨（+0），河北基差140元/吨 （-24）。隆众内地工厂库存333393吨（+22600），西北工厂库存214500吨（+16500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单216985 吨（+9615），西北工厂待发订单113300吨（+8100）。 港口方面：太仓甲醇2230元/吨（+5），太仓基差-155元/吨（-19），CFR中国256美元/吨（-2），华东进口价差-16元/ 吨（+10），常州甲醇2410元/吨；广东甲醇2235元/吨（-12），广东基差-150元/吨（-36）。隆众港口总库存1299750 吨（+223790），江苏港口库存671500吨（+124000 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of the week, the inventories of pure benzene and styrene both increased. Styrene faced continuous high - inventory pressure, and pure benzene ended its previous slight destocking cycle. The arrival of pure benzene was concentrated, while the downstream开工率 of pure benzene decreased to varying degrees. The inventory pressure in the CPL - PA6 - nylon industry chain was still high, and there was also inventory pressure in the MDI of the aniline downstream. In the phenol industry chain, both bisphenol A and PC reduced their loads. For styrene, with high actual开工率 and large port arrival pressure, the implementation progress of EB maintenance plans in early September should be monitored. The port inventory is expected to peak, but if the styrene maintenance in September is implemented, it will also drag down the demand for pure benzene, so the single - side price will still fluctuate weakly. In the EB downstream, the开工率 of EPS and ABS decreased again, while the开工率 of PS continued to rise. The finished - product inventories of the three major hard plastics all increased to varying degrees, and the styrene production profit weakened again [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - The content includes figures such as the pure benzene main basis and the pure benzene main futures contract price, the pure benzene main contract basis, the pure benzene spot - M2 paper - cargo spread, the pure benzene continuous - one contract - continuous - three contract spread, the EB main contract trend & basis, the EB main contract basis, and the styrene continuous - one contract - continuous - three contract spread [9][12][18][21] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Internal and External Spreads - It involves figures like the naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, the styrene non - integrated device production profit, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and pure benzene FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, the pure benzene import profit, the styrene import profit, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [23][26][32][36][37] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - The figures include the pure benzene East China port inventory, the pure benzene operating rate, the styrene East China port inventory, the styrene operating rate, the styrene East China commercial inventory, and the styrene factory inventory [41][43][46] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - It contains figures such as the EPS operating rate, the EPS production profit, the PS operating rate, the PS production profit, the ABS operating rate, and the ABS production profit [52][54][57] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - The relevant figures are the caprolactam operating rate, the phenol - ketone operating rate, the aniline operating rate, the adipic acid operating rate, the caprolactam production gross profit, the phenol - ketone production gross profit, the aniline production gross profit, the adipic acid production gross profit, the PA6 regular - spinning bright production gross profit, the nylon filament production gross profit, the bisphenol A production gross profit, the PC production gross profit, the epoxy resin E - 51 production gross profit, the pure MDI production gross profit, and the polymer MDI production gross profit [62][66][73][75][86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's easing expectations are intensifying and its independence is being questioned, which is beneficial for the safe-haven premium of gold. Gold prices are expected to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 780 yuan/gram and 830 yuan/gram [8] - The market is highly enthusiastic about trading easing expectations. Besides its financial attributes, silver may also be traded based on industrial demand, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Silver prices are also expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation pattern, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9500 yuan/kilogram and 10000 yuan/kilogram [8] Market Analysis - Tariffs: Trump said India has proposed to reduce tariffs to zero, but it's too late. Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump may declare a national housing emergency this autumn, and the plan may include exemptions for building materials. Bessent is confident that the Supreme Court will support Trump's tariff policy [1] - Economic data: The final value of the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.7 from 49.8 in July, a three-year high and higher than the preliminary value of 50.5, expanding for the first time since mid-2022. Factory output and new order growth reached the fastest in nearly three and a half years [1] - Employment market: The eurozone's unemployment rate in July dropped to 6.2% from 6.3% in June, with the number of unemployed people decreasing by 170,000, matching the record low set in November 2024 [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 786.10 yuan/gram and closed at 800.56 yuan/gram, a change of 1.97% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 799.54 yuan/gram and closed at 801.58 yuan/gram, a 0.13% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 9394.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9775.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 4.14% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 884,674 lots, and the open interest was 294,815 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9775 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9836 yuan/kilogram, a 0.62% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 1, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.225%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 0.606%, up 0.11 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On September 1, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions changed by 0 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions also changed by 0 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 495,904 lots, a change of 9.74% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions changed by 2 lots, and the short positions changed by -2 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,516,854 lots, a change of -2.80% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - As of August 30, the gold ETF position was 977.68 tons, up 9.74 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,310 tons, down 22.59 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On September 1, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -20.32 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1028.51 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 81.90, a change of 0.15% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.82, a change of 0.65% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On September 1, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 64,412 kilograms, a change of -11.69% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 653,358 kilograms, a change of -13.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 9880 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 20,010 kilograms [7]

Report Summary - The core contradiction of zinc logic has changed from the expectation of ore supply surplus to the difficult - to - solve internal and external supply - demand contradiction. The growth of ore supply has been realized, but the imbalance between internal and external zinc ingot supply and demand persists [2]. Domestic Zinc Ore Reserve and TC - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative zinc concentrate imports reached 3.035 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.2%. The cumulative domestic ore production was 2.0677 million metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 60,000 tons. Domestic ore production increase is difficult, and the supply growth is lower than expected. The TC may have limited upward space in the later stage [5][8]. Overseas Zinc Ore Production - According to sample mines, the production in Q1 2025 was 1.136 million tons, and in Q2 it was 1.17 million tons. Assuming 3 unreported mines had the same Q2 output as Q1, the Q2 output would be 1.215 million tons, an increase of about 80,000 tons quarter - on - quarter and 110,000 tons year - on - year. The annual output of major mines in 2025 is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons [5][17]. Domestic Smelting and Supply - From January to August 2025, China's refined zinc production was 4.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In August, the monthly output increased by 28.8% year - on - year, and the expected growth rate in September is over 20%. The smelting profit persists, and the supply pressure remains. Even if the consumption peak season arrives as expected, the social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, with an expected increase of over 200,000 tons in the second half of the year [5][23]. Overseas Supply and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, overseas refined zinc production was 3.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.3%. The expected output in the second half is 3.338 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3% and a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1.9%. Overseas supply is affected by smelting profit and declines, while consumption remains relatively strong. There is a risk of inventory shortage due to continuous inventory depletion. The import and export windows are both closed, and the imbalance between internal and external supply and demand is difficult to resolve in the short term [5][25].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding in the short term due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising raw material costs, and macro news. However, terminal demand has not recovered, production is still likely to increase, and prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 122,110 yuan/ton and closed at 123,450 yuan/ton, a 1.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 171,897 lots, and the open interest was 91,963 lots [1] - In the futures market, the main nickel contract showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation at night and closed slightly higher at the end. During the day session, it strengthened continuously due to the Jakarta strike in Indonesia and macro factors, reaching a maximum of 123,620 yuan/ton [2] - In the nickel ore market, it was mainly in a wait - and - see state during the day, and prices remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was okay. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 125,500 yuan/ton, a 2,100 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the sharp price increase, the spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium and discount remained stable [2] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly conduct range operations for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2509 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,893 lots, and the open interest was 100,563 lots [3] - In the futures market, the main stainless steel contract was weak at night, oscillating narrowly in the range of 12,770 - 12,860 yuan/ton. During the day session, it rose rapidly due to the news of unrest in Indonesia, reaching a maximum of 12,970 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, although there was news in the morning that a large steel mill restricted the sales of steel coils, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced goods was still limited. With the sharp rise in the futures market, the increase in spot quotes failed to keep up with the futures, but market inquiries and procurement activities improved, and the trading situation was relatively ideal [3] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]