Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the continuous fluctuations in upstream prices and external uncertainty events, covering various industries including production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream, and also tracks key indicators of multiple industries [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs A. Middle - view Event Overview - **Production Industry**: On October 23, the EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including large Chinese refineries and oil traders for the first time, which was strongly opposed by China [1]. - **Service Industry**: Since mid - October this year until October 23, the search volume for "outdoor ski resorts" on Meituan increased by nearly 900% year - on - year, and the search volume for Keketuohai International Ski Resort increased by 279% year - on - year. The search volume for "delicious food near ski resorts" and "hotels near ski resorts" on Meituan increased by more than 20% year - on - year. The game "Escape from Duckov" sold over 1 million copies within a week after its launch on October 16 [1]. B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: The price of glass in the black industry dropped significantly, while the price of liquefied natural gas in the energy industry continued to rise [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The PX operating rate in the chemical industry was at a high level, while the polyester operating rate declined. The coal consumption of power plants in the energy industry decreased [3]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities continued to decline in the real estate industry, while the number of domestic flights increased slightly in the service industry [3]. C. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On October 23, the spot price of corn was 2177.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.20%, the spot price of eggs was 6.1 yuan/kg with a year - on - year decrease of 1.30%, etc. [37]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 23, the spot price of copper was 85463.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.17%, the spot price of zinc was 22086.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.82%, etc. [37]. - **Black Metals**: On October 23, the spot price of iron ore was 794.6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.16%, the spot price of glass was 14.6 yuan/square meter with a year - on - year decrease of 6.82%, etc. [37]. - **Energy**: On October 23, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 58.5 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.14%, the spot price of Brent crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.10%, etc. [37]. - **Chemical Industry**: On October 23, the spot price of PTA was 4467.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.43%, the spot price of polyethylene was 7076.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.45%, etc. [37]. - **Real Estate**: On October 23, the cement price index nationwide was 134.3 with a year - on - year increase of 0.27%, the building materials composite index was 111.9 points with a year - on - year increase of 0.39%, etc. [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are currently average. For industrial silicon, the inventory increased in October, but the supply - demand situation may improve after the southwest region starts to cut production at the end of October. For polysilicon, the overall inventory pressure is high, the production reduction in October was less than expected, and the production in November may decrease, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken [3][7]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment, policy - side news, and anti - involution policies. The market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to pay attention to risk management [3][7]. - The industrial silicon valuation is currently low. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the industrial silicon futures market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,505 yuan/ton and closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (2.41%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2511 was 76,195 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 48,371 lots, a decrease of 367 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, the Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained slightly stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained slightly stable [1]. - As of October 23, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 559,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 123,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 436,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from last week. Recently, some goods in Xinjiang warehouses have been transferred to Tianjin, resulting in significant regional inventory changes [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 11,000 - 11,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week. The mainstream transaction was concentrated at 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the average market price decreased week - on - week. However, the quoted prices of Shandong monomer enterprises and other domestic monomer enterprises remained stable compared to last week [2]. Strategy - The current fundamentals are average. The recent increase in the start - up rate in the Northwest and the fact that the southwest region has not reached the dry season have led to a large increase in inventory in October. The intraday rebound was mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, the southwest region will start to cut production, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - side news [3]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. For contracts during the dry season, consider going long on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 showed a volatile trend, opening at 50,225 yuan/ton and closing at 50,760 yuan/ton, a change of 1.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 45,407 lots (49,016 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 86,148 lots [4][5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.95 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25.80 (with a month - on - month change of 1.98%), the silicon wafer inventory was 18.47GW (a month - on - month increase of 6.70%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,500 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4.84%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.73GW (a month - on - month increase of 2.65%) [5]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline [5]. - The prices of battery cells and components remained stable. For example, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large overall inventory pressure. The production reduction in October was less than expected, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month, but the downstream production schedule may also weaken. The warehouse receipts in November will face cancellation, which will have a certain impact on the futures market. The futures market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak market realities, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations [7]. - Short - term: Operate within a range. The main contract 11 will fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the contract 12 is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

流动性日报 | 2025-10-24 市场流动性概况 2025-10-23，股指板块成交7975.09亿元，较上一交易日变动+35.61%；持仓金额13326.90亿元，较上一交易日变动 +7.74%；成交持仓比为60.11%。 国债板块成交4024.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.89%；持仓金额8034.74亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.93%；成交 持仓比为50.03%。 基本金属板块成交3433.19亿元，较上一交易日变动+19.10%；持仓金额5448.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.91%； 成交持仓比为75.77%。 贵金属板块成交9725.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-31.52%；持仓金额4662.87亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.70%；成交 持仓比为207.82%。 能源化工板块成交3999.06亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.06%；持仓金额4396.25亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.88%；成 交持仓比为72.45%。 农产品板块成交3156.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.12%；持仓金额5676.84亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.01%；成交 持仓比为53.30%。 黑色建材板块成交2327 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The recovery of risk appetite driven by the stock market suppressed the bond market. The continued expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillated between the expectations of stable growth and easing, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3] - The current fiscal data shows a pattern of "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion". The central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 212.5 billion yuan. The repurchase rates in the money market have recently rebounded [2] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; monthly PPI had a month - on - month change of 0.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.30% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.79%; M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, a decrease of 0.40% and a decline rate of 4.55%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 0.81% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.93, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 0.04%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1263, with a month - on - month increase of 0.002 and a growth rate of 0.03%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.35%; DR007 was 1.43, a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.42%; R007 was 1.53, an increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.49%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.60, with a month - on - month change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.16%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month change of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.16% [9] 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On October 23, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.34 yuan, 105.65 yuan, 108.04 yuan, and 115.21 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.02%, - 0.07%, - 0.12%, and - 0.34% respectively [2] - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.001 yuan, - 0.006 yuan, 0.041 yuan, and 0.096 yuan respectively [2] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The fiscal data shows "moderate revenue recovery and strong expenditure expansion". The general public budget revenue in the first three quarters increased slightly by 0.5% year - on - year, relying on the recovery of individual income tax, value - added tax, and stamp duty, but the sustainability remains to be observed. The expenditure continued to increase, with social security, education, and debt interest payments maintaining high growth rates. The government - managed fund budget revenue was still weak, the decline in land sales narrowed but the recovery was limited, while the fund expenditure increased by 23.9% year - on - year [2] - On October 23, 2025, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 212.5 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2] - The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.318%, 1.417%, 1.512%, and 1.556% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently rebounded [2] 4. Spread Overview No specific spread data is further described in the text, but it is mentioned that there are relevant charts such as the inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures varieties, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [27][28][33] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on two - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [36] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on five - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [47] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on ten - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [54] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific data and analysis on thirty - year treasury bond futures are further described in the text, only relevant charts such as the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond maturity yield are mentioned [61] Strategies - Unilateral: With the rebound of the repurchase rate and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4] - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Report Summary Market Analysis - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2601 of lithium carbonate opened at 77,140 yuan/ton and closed at 79,940 yuan/ton, with a 4.17% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 490,920 lots, and the open interest was 419,147 lots, compared to 353,231 lots the previous day. The current basis is -3,520 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 28,759 lots, a change of -260 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 74,000 - 75,600 yuan/ton, a change of 450 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 71,950 - 73,150 yuan/ton, also a change of 450 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a change of 15 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - The downstream material factory's operating rate is continuously increasing, and the demand supports the spot transactions. In terms of supply, new production lines have been put into operation at both the spodumene and salt - lake ends, and it is expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October still has growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector is growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand [1]. - The weekly production increased by 242 tons to 21,308 tons, with a slight increase in production from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycling. The weekly inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory in the intermediate link increased slightly. The recent consumer side has strong support [2]. Core View - The recent rebound of the futures market is mainly affected by continuous inventory reduction, early cancellation of warehouse receipts, lower - than - expected resumption of production of previously shut - down mines, and strong consumer support. Currently, there is some support during the consumption peak season, the short - term supply - demand pattern is good, and the continuous inventory reduction supports the market. After the recent continuous rise of the market, the futures market has a large premium over the spot. It is expected that the willingness of upstream hedging will increase when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and mine production resumes, the inventory may change from reduction to accumulation, and the market may decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation. If the market continues to rebound, short - selling hedging can be carried out at high prices [3]. - Options: None [3] - Inter - period: None [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] - Spot - futures: None [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Short put 2. Core View of the Report - Previously, due to favorable macro - factors, the strengthening of precious metal prices, and frequent interference events in overseas mines, copper prices rose. However, with the temporary decline of precious metal prices and smelters seeking to break the low processing fees at the LME conference, if the TC price rebounds, it may suppress copper prices. Copper prices are currently treated with a neutral approach, and the expected fluctuation range this week is between 81,600 yuan/ton and 87,100 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,280 yuan/ton and closed at 86,070 yuan/ton, a 0.76% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 86,450 yuan/ton and closed at 86,730 yuan/ton, a 0.77% increase from the afternoon close [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 30 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 10 yuan, a 20 - yuan decrease from the previous day. The copper price ranged from 85,290 to 85,690 yuan/ton. High copper prices suppressed downstream procurement, and the willingness of holders to sell also declined. It is expected that although today's trading volume will increase month - on - month, if the copper price approaches 86,000 yuan/ton, the spot premium will still be under pressure [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Russian President Putin said that the US President decided to cancel or postpone the meeting, and Russia always advocates dialogue [3]. - Tariff: South Korea and the US are discussing a plan for South Korea to invest $200 billion in the US in stages over the next eight years to promote the current tariff negotiation agreement [3]. 3.2 Mine End - Shuikoushan Non - ferrous Kangjiawan Copper Mine introduced a mobile ball - control camera to solve the safety supervision problem in underground stope operations. Antofagasta's copper production in Q3 2025 was 161,800 tons, a 1% quarter - on - quarter increase, and the annual production is expected to be at the lower end of the 660,000 - 700,000 - ton guidance range [4]. 3.3 Smelting and Import - In September, China's copper scrap imports were 184,100 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 1.699 million tons, a 1.4% year - on - year increase. Due to increased customs inspections and high copper prices, it is predicted that imports in October may decline, and there is great pressure for an increase in Q4 [5]. 3.4 Consumption - In September, the national copper rod production was 1.0888 million tons, a 3.89% month - on - month increase. Electrolytic copper rod and recycled copper rod showed a differentiated trend. The electrolytic copper rod enterprise's operating rate in September was 70.3%, a 1.93 - percentage - point month - on - month increase and a 5.21 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. The recycled copper rod enterprise's operating rate was 25.78%, a 2.55 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease and a 3.1 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [6]. 3.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 136,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 505 tons to 36,048 tons. On October 20, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 181,600 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from the previous week [7][8]. 3.6 Copper Price and Basis Data - The data shows the spot (premium/discount), premium copper, flat - water copper, wet - process copper, Yangshan premium, LME (0 - 3), inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, import profit, and Shanghai - London ratio (main contract) for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, one month ago) [26][27][28][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is gradually increasing, but the demand remains strong, keeping the spot price firm and the basis in a strong position. The cost - end support for rubber is still strong. With the recovery of downstream开工率 and the resilience of exports, there is a certain rebound momentum in rubber prices. For BR, the supply may decrease due to increased upstream plant maintenance, and with the recovery of downstream demand, the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. It was the first time in the same period of history that automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 695 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 86.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,500 yuan/ton (+100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 220 yuan/ton (- 70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,800 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,914 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.45% (- 1.37%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]

关注"十五五"。宏观方面，二十届四中全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，高质量发展取得显著 成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不 断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。在此基础上再奋斗五年，到二〇三五年实现 我国经济实力、科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水 平，人民生活更加幸福美好，基本实现社会主义现代化。中美关系方面，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰 将于10月24日至27日率团赴马来西亚与美方举行经贸磋商。双方将按照今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就 中美经贸关系中的重要问题进行磋商。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数探底回升，沪指涨0.22%收于3922.41点，创业板指涨0.09%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，煤炭、石油石化、社会服务行业领涨，通信、房地产、建筑材料行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成 交金额继续下滑至1.64万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨0.89%报22941.80点。 期指增仓。期货市场，基差方面，四大期指当月合约基差回升。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **PE**: Affected by geopolitics and macro - factors, international oil prices have rebounded strongly from a low level, enhancing cost support. However, the supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand follows up limitedly. Although the price has risen with cost support, the upside space is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Oil prices and propane prices have rebounded, increasing cost support. But the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly with large inventory de - stocking pressure. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6999元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6691元/吨（+72）。LL华北现货为6940元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+40），PP华东现货为6610元/吨（+50）。LL华北基差为 - 59元/吨（-3），LL华东基差为1元/吨（-23），PP华东基差为 - 81元/吨（-22） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为81.5%（-0.3%），PP开工率为75.9%（-2.3%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为404.0元/吨（-87.8），PP油制生产利润为 - 236.0元/吨（-87.8），PDH制PP生产利润为63.7元/吨（-104.3） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 138.6元/吨（+8.8），PP进口利润为 - 367.2元/吨（+84.5），PP出口利润为 - 7.6美元/吨（-39.9） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为47.1%（+4.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为52.6%（+0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.4%（+0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.4%（+0.2%） [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The cost support has increased, but the supply is expected to rise with limited downstream demand. The price has risen with cost support, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand pressure [2]. - **PP**: Cost support has strengthened, but the supply pressure still exists, and the demand follows up slowly. The price increase may not be sustainable [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread. - **Inter - variety**: Shrink the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4].