聚烯烃日报 | 2025-12-12 PE下游开工继续下滑，供应压力持续 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6534元/吨（-27），PP主力合约收盘价为6177元/吨（+15），LL华北现货为6530 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6700元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6230元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-4元/吨（+27），LL华 东基差为166元/吨（+27）， PP华东基差为53元/吨（-15）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为214.7元/吨（-70.5），PP油制生产利润为-495.3元/吨（-70.5），PDH制PP生产利 润为-803.6元/吨（-136.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-0.5元/吨（-7.5），PP进口利润为-300.5元/吨（-80.0），PP出口利润为-13.4美元/吨（+5.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on December 11, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for multiple sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 621.504 billion yuan, a - 1.77% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1318.4 billion yuan, a - 2.30% change; the trading - holding ratio was 46.68% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 364.789 billion yuan, a + 1.02% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 750.457 billion yuan, a + 1.44% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.53% [1] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 534.275 billion yuan, a - 0.17% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 680.854 billion yuan, a + 1.09% change; the trading - holding ratio was 78.67%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 848.69 billion yuan, a - 2.04% change; the holding amount was 487.153 billion yuan, a + 0.59% change; the trading - holding ratio was 257.46% [1] 5. Energy Chemical Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 493.718 billion yuan, a + 9.61% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 459.957 billion yuan, a + 0.73% change; the trading - holding ratio was 96.67% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 357.572 billion yuan, a - 4.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 600.746 billion yuan, a + 1.03% change; the trading - holding ratio was 54.09% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - On December 11, 2025, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 257.89 billion yuan, a - 7.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 333.578 billion yuan, a - 0.63% change; the trading - holding ratio was 71.79% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global lead concentrate market continues to be in a tight balance. Domestic TC remains low, and the negative processing fee range for imported ores is expanding. Mines are reluctant to sell, leading to passive production cuts at smelters. The domestic primary lead production rate is only 60%, and smelters in Hunan, Yunnan and other places are undergoing maintenance until January. Secondary lead production is limited due to the scarcity of waste battery supplies and limited profit recovery. Overall, the supply elasticity is insufficient. Although the demand is in the off - season for lead - acid batteries, the social inventory has continuously declined to a two - year low, and the spot premium is firm, providing support for prices. It is expected that the current lead price will maintain a volatile pattern. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On December 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.03/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries changed by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton. The price of scrap white shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton. The price of scrap black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton. [1] Futures - On December 11, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,155 yuan/ton and closed at 17,155 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 34,885 lots, a change of -1,564 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 35,754 lots, a change of -3,561 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,220 yuan/ton and a minimum of 17,070 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,115 yuan/ton and closed at 17,120 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price dropped by 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 90 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract, and the discount narrowed further. In Hunan, the quoted price of lead smelters for the delivery brand was at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead. After some smelters sold out their inventory, the trading volume declined. As the lead price weakened, some downstream enterprises made purchases at low prices, but smelters generally delivered goods through long - term contracts, and the trading volume of spot contracts was relatively light. [2] Inventory - On December 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 21,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of December 11, the LME lead inventory was 235,475 tons, a decrease of 75 tons from the previous trading day. [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic policy expectations are rising, with the government emphasizing economic stability, promoting consumption, and reforming key industries [1] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and plans to buy $40 billion in short - term bonds, while the market's expectation of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December has increased [2] - During the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on the relatively certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are heating up. Multiple government meetings have been held to discuss infrastructure construction, consumption promotion, and industry competition governance. The central economic working conference emphasized measures to boost the economy, including promoting consumption, reforming state - owned enterprises, and stabilizing the real estate market. China's November economic data showed a rebound in the manufacturing PMI and a significant increase in foreign trade growth [1] International Market - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its December meeting, with three members objecting. The statement added new wording about considering further rate adjustments. The US economic data in November was mixed, with a decline in ADP employment and different trends in PMI indices. The choice of the Federal Reserve chairman candidate may also affect future monetary policy. The market's expectation of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December has risen sharply [2] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, during the inflation expectation game phase, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector has long - term supply constraints but is boosted by global easing expectations. In the energy sector, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and production cuts by some countries affect oil prices. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of some products is worthy of attention. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan and weather expectations. For precious metals, consider buying on dips after the short - term adjustment risk is cleared [3] Key News - The meeting emphasized risk prevention in key areas such as stabilizing the real estate market and resolving local government debt. It also focused on people's livelihood issues including employment, education, medical care, and population policies. The economic policy for next year will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. Key tasks include promoting reform, building a unified national market, and deepening various reforms. The 20 - year Japanese government bond auction attracted strong demand, and the IEA lowered the global crude oil supply surplus forecast [5]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-12 需求提振有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11220元/吨，较前交易日变动-90.00元/吨，幅度-0.80%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.28元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+60，较前交易日变动+100；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.55元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH03+330，较前交易日变动+200；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.93元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+710，较前交易日变动+190。 据农业农村部监测，12月11日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.45，比昨天下降0.01个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为132.20，比昨天下降0.01个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.62元/公斤，比昨天下降1.5%；牛肉65.95 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.24元/公斤，比昨天下降0.8%；鸡蛋7.47元/公斤，比昨天下降0.4%；白条鸡17.72 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.6%。 市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal sector is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn sector is neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current supply - demand pattern for soybean meal remains unchanged, with high oil mill operating rates and continuous inventory accumulation of soybeans and soybean meal. Without significant news, soybean meal prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean imports and weather in the new - season South American production areas [2] - For corn, the selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened effective supply. As prices reach a relatively high level and holidays approach, the selling progress may accelerate. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2750 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2323 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.26%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3050 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - US data: In October 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons. The soybean oil production in October 2025 was 2.83 billion pounds, an 18% increase from September 2025 and an 11% increase from October 2024 [1] 3.1.2. Market Analysis - The supply - demand pattern has not changed, with high oil mill operating rates and inventory accumulation. Without new news, soybean meal prices will fluctuate. High US soybean import costs require attention to import volume and South American weather [2] 3.1.3. Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2. Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1. Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2243 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2523 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Brazilian data: Thanks to abundant rainfall, the planting of the first - season corn crop in some Brazilian states is progressing rapidly. As of December 5, the national first - season corn sowing was 71.3% complete [3] 3.2.2. Market Analysis - Supply side: The selling progress in Northeast China is relatively fast, but farmers' reluctance to sell has tightened supply. As prices rise and holidays approach, selling may accelerate. Demand side: Deep - processing and feed enterprises have low inventories and need to replenish stocks, and feed demand is rigid [4] 3.2.3. Strategy - Neutral [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of propylene continues to increase while the demand remains sluggish. The overall propylene start - rate continues to be high, with the restart of Shandong Binhua's PDH unit and potential new capacity release from Lianhong's MTO. The downstream overall start - rate weakens due to profit pressure and resistance to high - price raw materials. The cost side has mixed trends, with weak international oil prices and strong propane prices [1][2] - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The supply - demand situation is continuously loose with insufficient driving forces, and the short - term trend is mainly weak and volatile, waiting for marginal device maintenance [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - Propylene's main contract closing price is 5749 yuan/ton (+11), the East China spot price is 5975 yuan/ton (+0), the North China spot price is 6090 yuan/ton (+0), the East China basis is 226 yuan/ton (-11), and the North China basis is 140 yuan/ton (+9) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Start - rate - Propylene's start - rate is 74% (+0%). The production profit margins of different production methods and the corresponding capacity utilization rates are involved in the report, such as the profit margin and capacity utilization of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 361 yuan/ton (-25), and there are also data on the price difference between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Start - rate - PP powder start - rate is 40% (-0.93%), production profit is - 330 yuan/ton (+0); epoxy propane start - rate is 76% (+0), production profit is 82 yuan/ton (+0); n - butanol start - rate is 69% (-6%), production profit is 412 yuan/ton (+0); octanol start - rate is 77% (+1), production profit is 693 yuan/ton (+0); acrylic acid start - rate is 80% (+2), production profit is 408 yuan/ton (-25); acrylonitrile start - rate is 81% (+0), production profit is - 730 yuan/ton (-39); phenol - ketone start - rate is 80% (-3%), production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 45,960 tons (-1930) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Port inventory is rapidly decreasing due to delayed unloading. The overall arrival pressure in December remains high, but the unloading pressure is postponed. The impact of Iranian winter maintenance on future arrivals needs time to be reflected, and the loading volume from Iran should be continuously monitored. Attention should be paid to when the maintenance plan of Ningbo Fude MTO is implemented. The continuous decline in coking coal and thermal coal prices is dragging down the coal chemical industry. In the inland area, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The resumption of Yangmei MTO and the low - load operation of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong are boosting inland demand [3] - For trading strategies, there is no recommendation for single - sided trading. For the inter - period strategy, the spread between MA2605 - MA2609 should be widened when it is low. For the inter - variety strategy, the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 should be narrowed when it is high [3] Summaries According to the Catalog 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The content includes figures showing the methanol basis in Taicang and the main contract, the basis of spot - main futures in different regions, and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts such as methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01 [6][20] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - The content presents figures related to the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, and various import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25] 3. Methanol Start - up, Inventory - Figures show the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated ones), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the start - up rate of Chinese methanol (including integrated ones) [32][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - The content includes figures of price differences between different regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][44] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [48][57]

油料日报 | 2025-12-12 东北豆市高位观望情绪升温，花生产区质量分化成交清淡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4173.00元/吨，较前日变化+12.00元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-13，较前日变化-12，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区新季大豆现货市场呈现稳中偏强格局。由于农户手中余粮有限，普遍存有惜售盼涨 心理，市场供应趋紧，带动部分大型企业收购价上调。同时，中储粮的收购政策也对价格形成底部支撑，推动近 期行情连续走强，商品豆塔粮价格也出现局部上涨。后续大豆价格走势，仍需重点关注下游需求的恢复情况。黑 龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.08元/斤，较前一日涨0.03元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.05元/斤，较前一日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日涨0.02元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term arrival pressure of pure benzene in China is high, and port inventories are accumulating rapidly. The gasoline crack spread overseas is weak, but the price difference between the US and South Korea in the pure benzene market has been repaired. Downstream demand remains weak, and the off - season for downstream operations continues [3]. - For styrene, port inventories have further declined, and the port basis remains strong. Styrene maintains low - level operations, and downstream demand is fair. However, the off - season for downstream operations is obvious, and inventory pressure persists [3]. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Relevant figures include the basis of pure benzene's main contract, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between pure benzene's first - and third - continuous contracts, the trend and basis of EB's main contract, and the spread between EB's first - and third - continuous contracts [8][13][16]. II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, non - integrated styrene production profits, price differences between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, price differences between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, price differences between FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene, pure benzene import profits, and styrene import profits [21][23][32]. III. Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show the inventory of pure benzene at East China ports, the operating rate of pure benzene, the inventory of styrene at East China ports, the operating rate of styrene, the commercial inventory of styrene in East China, and the factory inventory of styrene [40][42][45]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures include the operating rate and production profit of EPS, the operating rate and production profit of PS, and the operating rate and production profit of ABS [51][53][56]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures involve the operating rates of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, and adipic acid, as well as their production profits, and the production profits of PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [61][64][73]. Strategies - Unilateral: None. - Basis and Inter - period: Consider a long - short spread trade on EB2601 - EB2602 when the price is low. - Cross - variety: Consider widening the spread of EB2601 - BZ2603 when the price is low [4].