1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] 2. Report's Core View - The soybean futures market weakened, with the closing price of the Douyi 2601 contract at 4145.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous day. Spot market, after the soybean rush in late October, traders' purchasing enthusiasm decreased. However, the opening of some warehouses of Sinograin for purchase at prices similar to the market price in the Northeast supported the bottom of soybean prices. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast was generally stable, with some areas seeing a price increase of 40 yuan/ton, and soybeans with over 39% protein remained firm. The auction had a 100% success rate, indicating market demand. In the short - term, soybean prices were supported by the policy - guided price [1][2] - The peanut futures market fluctuated downward, with the closing price of the Peanut 2601 contract at 7794.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous day. The spot market was in a stalemate. Suppliers in the Northeast and Hebei were reluctant to sell due to good quality, while in Henan, the supply was limited due to the busy farming season and low - temperature drying, but the price was more competitive. After the farming season, the supply was expected to increase. The demand side was sluggish, with traders purchasing on - demand due to slow sales and low profits. Oil mills and food factories had limited demand, and COFCO's oil mill set strict quality standards for purchases [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2601 contract was 4145.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan/ton or 0.10% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 45, up 4 or 32.14% from the previous day. The new - season soybean market in the Northeast was generally stable, with some areas seeing a 40 - yuan/ton price increase. Soybeans with over 39% protein remained firm. The auction had a 100% success rate. The prices of 39% protein medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged from the previous day [1] Strategy - Neutral [2] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Peanut 2601 contract was 7794.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton or 1.52% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7980.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.25% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK01 - 794.00, up 120.00 or - 13.13% month - on - month. The national average price of common peanuts was 4.00 yuan/jin, down 0.03 yuan/jin. Oil mills' contract purchase price for oil - grade peanuts was 7300 - 7450 yuan/ton, with strict quality control and average arrivals [3] Strategy - Neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On Hold [8] - Options: Short Put [8] Core View of the Report Although high copper prices significantly inhibit consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 85,530 yuan/ton and closed at 86,080 yuan/ton, a 0.50% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,540 yuan/ton and closed at 86,190 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase from the afternoon close [2]. - **Spot Situation**: The spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,930 - 86,300 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 85 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 15 - yuan increase from the previous day. Low copper prices supported downstream procurement, and the procurement and sales sentiment in Shanghai continued to rise. However, about 40,000 tons of delivery warehouse receipts in Jiangsu may suppress spot premiums [3]. - **Important Information Summary**: The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed serious differences among policymakers on the interest - rate cut, and almost all agreed to stop the QT. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the data into the November report, to be released on December 16 [4]. Industry Chain Situation - **Mine End**: Freeport - McMoRan plans to resume large - scale production at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia in Q2 2026. In 2025 from January to September, the production of major copper enterprises showed differentiation, with some increasing and some decreasing. Codelco lowered its annual production target due to safety incidents [5]. - **Smelting and Import**: Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The import window remained closed with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign trade market was inactive, but there were two areas of structural activity. The market's focus is shifting to annual long - term contract negotiations [6]. - **Consumption**: China aims to add 100 GW of new - type energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027, and the US is expected to add about 19 GW of storage power in 2025. Energy storage expansion will boost metal demand, and the copper demand in China's electric vehicle and energy - transition sectors is expected to increase by 18% to 3 million tons in 2025 [7]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 50 tons to 269,800 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1,112 tons to 18,094 tons, and the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 114,300 tons, a 1,200 - ton increase from the previous week [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Buy hedges on dips between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton, and sell hedges for enterprises with relevant needs can be carried out between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Put on hold [8]. - **Options**: Short put [8]

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Apple futures prices fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji apples are gradually winding up, and the in - warehouse transactions are stable. The price of high - quality goods is firm, but the market sales are average due to the impact of citrus competitors. The short - term market is expected to be stable with support, and future attention should be paid to inventory digestion [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9375 yuan/ton, a change of - 58 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.61%. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1875, a change of + 58 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 was - 1075, a change of + 58 from the previous day [1]. Recent Market Information - The ground and warehousing transactions of late Fuji are gradually winding up, and the in - warehouse transactions are stable. The western outbound is still concentrated in Gansu and Shaanxi Xunyi. The market supply in Shandong is decreasing, and the quality of ground goods is declining. The price of high - quality goods is stable, and the short - term market is expected to be stable. Currently, affected by citrus and other competing fruits, the market sales are average, and future attention should be paid to the market's digestion ability of inventory goods [2]. Market Analysis - Apple futures prices fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The warehousing volume is lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the warehousing structure has decreased. The outbound work has started, but the goods flowing to the market are limited. The sales area is in the off - season, and the sales space of apples is squeezed by citrus. The price is generally stable, and this week, attention should be paid to the completion of warehousing in Shandong and Shanxi and the outbound speed in the west [3]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the commodity rate this year is low. Merchants are cautious about ordering general goods. The warehousing work is gradually entering the later stage, and the warehousing volume is lower than the same period last year [4]. Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core Viewpoints - Red date futures prices showed a downward trend yesterday. The purchase price of red dates in some areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. The new goods in the sales areas have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable. The new goods are expected to be concentrated on the market soon, and the inventory pressure is high. The market's future expectations are pessimistic [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9290 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 was - 390, a change of + 35 from the previous day [5]. Recent Market Information - The purchase price of red dates in Aksu and Alar areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. Other production areas are mostly near the end of the purchase, adhering to the principle of high - quality and high - price. The enthusiasm of enterprises for purchase is average. The new goods in the sales areas of Hebei and Guangdong have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing is average. The new goods in the Hebei sales area are on the market in small quantities, and downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable [6]. Market Analysis - Red date futures prices showed a downward trend yesterday. The purchase price of red dates in some areas has been slightly reduced, and the purchase progress is fast. The new goods in the sales areas have limited arrivals, and the quality is uneven, resulting in a wide price difference. The short - term spot price is expected to be weakly stable. The purchase enthusiasm in the sales area has decreased, and the new goods are not well - received. The inventory of 36 sample points has increased slightly. The new season's jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and the production reduction is an expected situation. The quality of jujube fruits is better than that of the same period last year. The actual consumption at the consumer end will be another focus of the market [7]. Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Recently, red date futures have fallen significantly for four consecutive weeks, and the market game has increased. The market expectations are relatively pessimistic. According to the modification of the red date delivery rules by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in 2025, old - season red dates can still participate in delivery and the cost is lower than that of new - season red dates, so the near - month contracts may still have a certain downward space [8].

流动性日报 | 2025-11-20 市场流动性概况 2025-11-19，股指板块成交7333.79亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.35%；持仓金额13299.07亿元，较上一交易日变动 -1.15%；成交持仓比为54.71%。 国债板块成交4582.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.96%；持仓金额8389.43亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.09%；成交 持仓比为54.39%。 基本金属板块成交5933.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+20.58%；持仓金额6100.81亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.86%； 成交持仓比为118.78%。 贵金属板块成交8026.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.37%；持仓金额4442.04亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.17%；成 交持仓比为228.62%。 能源化工板块成交4750.54亿元，较上一交易日变动+22.69%；持仓金额4608.62亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.64%； 成交持仓比为95.02%。 农产品板块成交3483.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+13.67%；持仓金额5986.57亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.95%；成 交持仓比为51.02%。 黑色建材板块成交20 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The domestic spot discount of zinc has been significantly repaired, and the overseas inventory has increased, but the spot premium remains at a high level. The social inventory is expected to continue to decline. After the absolute price of zinc fell, the downstream's acceptance of the price increased significantly. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic mining TC in November further decreased significantly, and the overseas mining TC also decreased synchronously. The smelters actively purchased domestic and foreign ores, and the import TC guidance price for the first quarter of next year decreased month - on - month. The short - term TC still shows a downward trend. The smelting end is under pressure, and the comprehensive smelting profit is severely compressed. The high - cost areas are facing comprehensive losses, and the smelting enthusiasm will be suppressed, so the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease more than expected. The overseas warrant inventory is still at a low level, and there is still a warrant risk. Most of the micro - data has changed from bearish to bullish. In terms of the macro - aspect, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US in December and January has weakened, and the zinc price is expected to be resistant to the decline caused by the emotional recession [5]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $129.76 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 22,360 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 110 yuan/ton to 22,380 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On November 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,360 yuan/ton and closed at 22,420 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 91,247 lots, and the position was 67,487 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,475 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 22,330 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 156,600 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 45,075 tons, an increase of 1,550 tons from the previous trading day [4]. 3.2 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread arbitrage [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market and uncertainties in global trade and Fed rate - cut expectations, short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.15% month - on - month change rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% month - on - month; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% month - on - month [10]. - The US dollar index is 100.13, up 0.54 with a 0.54% month - on - month change rate; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1109, down 0.002 with a - 0.03% month - on - month change rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.49, down 0.03 with a - 2.04% month - on - month change rate; DR007 is 1.51, down 0.01 with a - 0.71% month - on - month change rate; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 with a - 1.24% month - on - month change rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 change and a - 0.09% month - on - month change rate [10]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance of treasury bond futures main contracts [12][16][19][23]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local bond issuance, inter - period spread trend of treasury bond futures, and spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety [28][30][32]. 4. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the spread between spot bond term spread and futures cross - variety such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][38][41]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, TS main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [40][42][51]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, TF main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [53][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, T main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [60][61]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures on the implied yield and treasury bond maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, TL main contract IRR and funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [67][70][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The supply - demand structure of oils and fats is stable, and the market is in a state of volatile adjustment [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,852.00 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of +144 yuan (+1.65%) - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,356.00 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of +36.00 yuan (+0.43%) - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,813.00 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of - 61.00 yuan (-0.62%) [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,780.00 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of +130.00 yuan (+1.50%), and the spot basis was P01 - 72.00, with a day - on - day change of - 14.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,540.00 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of +40.00 yuan/ton (+0.47%), and the spot basis was Y01 + 184.00, with a day - on - day change of +4.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,160.00 yuan/ton, with a day - on - day change of - 60.00 yuan (-0.59%), and the spot basis was OI01 + 347.00, with a day - on - day change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market News - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,164 dollars/ton, up 21 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,165 dollars/ton, up 24 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,100 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 537 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 546 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 510 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 505 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 499 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotes for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (December shipment) was 225 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (December shipment) was 210 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day - Foreign media expected that the EPA was preparing to submit the final RVO plan to the White House. After the SRE redistribution, the RVO quantity in the EPA's final plan would be higher than that in the proposed plan in June - China's palm oil imports in October were 220,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. From January to October, palm oil imports were 1.96 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [2] Group 4: Price Support Factors - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated. The record - high US soybean crushing volume, a 38.2% year - on - year increase in China's soybean oil imports in October, and market expectations of possible changes in the US EPA's biofuel blending ratio (RVO) provided some support for soybean oil [3] Group 5: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, yields, trading volumes, and inventories of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources mainly from Steel Union Data and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral in the short term, bearish in the medium term [2] Group 2: Core Views - The market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil has marginally improved, but the upward driving force remains limited [1] - Crude oil prices continue in a weak and volatile state, and the medium-term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil [1] - The fundamental situation of high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils is converging. The previously strong high-sulfur fuel oil fundamentals have marginally loosened, but there are still supporting factors below [1] - Recently, the supply of low-sulfur fuel oil in Nigeria and Kuwait has tightened marginally, and the strength of overseas gasoline and diesel has also boosted the valuation of low-sulfur fuel oil. However, in the medium term, it faces the contradiction of being substituted in marine fuel demand and has abundant surplus capacity, so it does not have the conditions to strengthen continuously [1] Group 3: Strategy - For high-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, medium-term bearish [2] - For cross-variety: Positions with long LU-FU spreads can be appropriately taken profit [2] - For cross-period: No strategy provided [2] - For spot-futures: No strategy provided [2] - For options: No strategy provided [2] Group 4: Market Data - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.01% at 2,560 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.21% at 3,266 yuan/ton [1] - Multiple charts show prices, spreads, and trading volume data for Singapore and Chinese fuel oil futures and spot markets [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by emotions and news, with significant price fluctuations. The industrial silicon market may see an improved supply - demand pattern after southwest production cuts, while the polysilicon market has large inventory pressure and is affected by policies and weak reality [3][7] - For industrial silicon, the current valuation is low, and if there are relevant policies, the price may rise. For polysilicon, the consumption side performs averagely, and the market is expected to be volatile [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8985 yuan/ton and closed at 9390 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan/ton (4.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 306,669 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,412 lots, up 10 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was 13000 - 13200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton. Other downstream product prices also rose, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in a week [2] Strategy - The spot price is stable with some increases. After southwest production cuts, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The current industrial silicon market is affected by overall commodity emotions and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and consider going long on dry - season contracts at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 19, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures oscillated strongly, opening at 52,300 yuan/ton and closing at 54,625 yuan/ton, up 4.28% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 134,317 lots, and the trading volume was 361,538 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09% month - on - month to 26.70, and the silicon wafer inventory increased by 5.14% month - on - month to 18.42GW. The weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, down 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer production was 13.12GW, down 2.45% month - on - month [4] - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.26 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan), N - type 210mm was 1.60 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.27 yuan/piece (down 0.01 yuan). The polysilicon production in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and the production in November in the southwest region was expected to decline [6] - The prices of battery cells and components remained relatively stable [6] Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, resulting in large market fluctuations. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]

Report Information - Report Date: November 20, 2025 - Report Name: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Institution: Huatai Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously Bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On Hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes revealed significant internal differences regarding the December rate cut, which may create short-term negative sentiment for both gold and silver prices. As a result, both metals are expected to trade in a range-bound pattern. The Au2512 contract for gold is projected to fluctuate between 910 yuan/gram and 950 yuan/gram, while the Ag2602 contract for silver is expected to move between 11,700 yuan/kilogram and 12,300 yuan/kilogram [8]. Market Analysis Fed Meeting Minutes and Employment Data - The Fed's October policy meeting minutes showed severe differences among policymakers during the rate cut decision last month, and the pro-rate cut camp did not have an absolute numerical advantage. There was almost unanimous agreement to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) of balance sheet reduction. Some members were concerned about the risk of a disorderly stock market decline. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate the non-farm payroll data into the November report, which is scheduled for December 16 [1]. Futures Market - On November 19, 2025, the Shanghai Gold (Au) main contract opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 937.00 yuan/gram, a 2.01% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 941.98 yuan/gram and closed at 935.42 yuan/gram, a 0.17% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver (Ag) main contract opened at 11,760.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,148.00 yuan/kilogram, a 3.84% change from the previous day's close. The trading volume was 1,360,286 lots, and the open interest was 340,206 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 7,633 yuan/kilogram and closed at 7,644 yuan/kilogram, a 0.27% decline from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yields and Spreads - On November 19, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.12%, a -0.01% change from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.54%, a 0.01% change from the previous day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On November 19, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,586 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,549 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts the previous day was 486,709 lots, a 9.18% change from the previous day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 13,646 lots, and short positions increased by 11,943 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Silver contracts the previous day was 1,943,912 lots, a 10.55% change from the previous day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,041.43 tons from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 15,218 tons [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage - On November 19, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -11.67 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,350.29 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE was approximately 77.13, a -1.76% change from the previous day, while the ratio in the overseas market was 80.34, a 0.46% change from the previous day [6]. Fundamental Data - On November 19, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T+d market was 62,688 kilograms, a 4.93% change from the previous day. The trading volume of silver was 785,682 kilograms, a 26.08% change from the previous day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 45,840 kilograms [7].