Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - PE's supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity output, while PP's current low overall operating rate will face greater supply - side pressure in the future. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season with a positive long - term outlook [2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][14][18] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [25][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [38][43][50] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Figures are about PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven fabric operating rate, PP downstream BOPP film operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven fabric production profit margin, and PP downstream BOPP production profit margin [60][59][68] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures contain PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [70][73][79] 4. Market Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 7095 yuan/ton (+33), LL North China spot at 7220 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot at 7280 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 7040 yuan/ton (+0), LL North China basis at - 94 yuan/ton (-24), LL East China basis at - 34 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 55 yuan/ton (-33) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 373.7 yuan/ton (-12.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 106.3 yuan/ton (-12.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 208.1 yuan/ton (-47.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 71.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP import profit was - 505.8 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP export profit was 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven fabric operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propane and butane market is not explicitly provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market has insufficient driving forces and the PG futures price is in a weak and volatile state, with limited upward momentum despite being at a relatively low level [1] - The domestic spot price of civil liquefied gas declined locally yesterday, with relatively good transactions in the East China region, mainly driven by downstream rigid - demand purchases [1] - Overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic arrival volume may continue to be high, maintaining an overall abundant supply [1] - The demand for the combustion end in the off - season remains weak. Although the operating rate of downstream deep - processing devices has marginally improved recently, the product profit situation has not completely reversed, and the power for continuous demand growth is insufficient [1] - The strategy for unilateral trading is to expect a weak and volatile market, and to pay attention to the bottom - building signals of the futures price [2] Group 3: Summary by Content Market Analysis - On August 11, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4360 - 4590 yuan/ton; East China market, 4350 - 4450 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4350 - 4540 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4250 yuan/ton; South China market, 4298 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 563 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton) and 538 dollars/ton (up 24 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4386 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton) and 4190 yuan/ton (up 153 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 558 dollars/ton (up 6 dollars/ton) and 538 dollars/ton (up 28 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4426 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) and 4229 yuan/ton (up 223 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Expect a weak and volatile market and pay attention to the bottom - building signals of the futures price; Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading strategies are not provided [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The willingness of foreign investors to allocate to the A-share market is increasing, which may become new incremental funds driving the market. The liquidity of the A-share market is expected to further strengthen, supporting the upward trend of the index [2] - The current market still shows obvious sector rotation characteristics. Driven by incremental funds, the rotation is more reflected in the absorption of low-priced chips by funds, and major stock indices rise alternately [2] - The "anti-involution" related concept sectors that have experienced short-term adjustments are expected to regain upward momentum, and it is recommended to pay attention to the layout opportunities of IC [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Domestic policy: The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education have revised the "Measures for the Administration of Funds to Support the Development of Preschool Education" to standardize and strengthen the management of relevant funds, which are mainly used to support the expansion and improvement of preschool education and implement the policy of exempting preschool education fees [1] - Overseas event: Trump announced that the Washington, D.C. Police Department would be placed under direct federal jurisdiction, deployed the National Guard, and declared a public safety emergency in Washington, D.C. [1] - A-share market: The three major A-share indices fluctuated upward. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96%. Sector indices mostly rose, with the power equipment, communication, computer, and electronics sectors leading the gains, while the banking, petroleum and petrochemical, and coal sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to over 1.8 trillion yuan [1] - Overseas market: Putin will meet with Trump in Alaska on August 15, 2025. The three major U.S. stock indices closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.45% to 43975.09 points as the market awaited inflation data and investment sentiment turned cautious [1] - Futures market: In the futures market, the discount of the current-month futures contracts was repaired. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [1] 2. Strategy - The increasing allocation willingness of foreign investors to the A-share market may bring incremental funds, strengthening market liquidity and supporting the upward trend of the index [2] - The market shows sector rotation, and the "anti-involution" concept sectors may regain upward momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to IC layout opportunities [2] 3. Macroeconomic Charts - Include charts of the U.S. dollar index and A-share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A-share trends, RMB exchange rates and A-share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A-share style trends [5][11][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on August 11, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.46%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.96% [13] - Also include charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [5][14] 5. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [15] - Include charts of the open interest, latest open interest ratios, and net open interest of foreign investors for IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][16][24] - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed different degrees of change [39] - Include charts of the basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts [5][41][42] - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spreads of stock index futures, including spreads between different contract months, and the spreads showed various changes [44][45] - Include charts of the inter - delivery spreads of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [5][46]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-12 交易风险增加，碳酸锂盘面封板 市场分析 2025-08-11，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于81000元/吨，收于81000元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化8.00%。当日成 交量为38071手，持仓量为317676手，前一交易日持仓量320706手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-6500元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单19389手，较上个交易日变化560手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价73000-76000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2600元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价71600-73000元/吨，较前一交易日变化2500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格875美元/吨，较前一日变化90美元/吨。据SMM 数据，因江西枧下窝在矿证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采作业，对于锂云母及锂云母端碳酸锂产出造成一定影响。 市场情绪发酵下，今日碳酸锂期货开盘即涨停。但同时，锂辉石端碳酸锂增量可进行一定补充，且枧下窝相关锂 盐厂可通过矿石库存或零单采购维持少量产出，现货市场暂不会出现大幅紧缺现象。从成交情况来看，上下游双 方保持谨慎观望态度，市场成交较少。 策略 受锂矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Maersk in Week 35 was revised higher than expected, and attention should be paid to whether Maersk's PSS will be adjusted recently [1]. - In August, the top of the freight rate appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brought uncertainty to the forecast of the delivery settlement price. The first - phase delivery settlement price index was announced. The freight rates of shipping companies entered a downward cycle, and the prices of various shipping alliances followed suit [5]. - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The December contract still follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, and the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation [6][7]. - The strategy suggests that the main contract fluctuates weakly. For arbitrage, go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes: Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes in Week 34 were 1600/2700, and in Week 35, they opened at 1320/2200 and then rose to 1345/2250. Quotes of other shipping companies for different routes and time periods were also provided [2]. 2. Geopolitical Aspect - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he hadn't talked to Trump since making decisions regarding Gaza and planned to talk to him soon [3]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From August to October, the weekly average capacity in China - European basic ports showed different trends. There were empty sailings and TBNs in August and September, and there were also many additional ships in August [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 27, 2025, 157 container ships with a total capacity of 1.2513 million TEU had been delivered [8]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The freight rate reached its peak and started to decline, affecting the delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on August 11, 18, and 25. The freight rates of shipping companies such as Maersk and HPL decreased [5]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [6]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season pattern still exists. The risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In normal years, the Far East - Europe price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October [7]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 11, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes was 80,523 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 53,406 lots. The closing prices of different contracts were provided. SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes were also announced [8]. 6. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoint - The lead market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price is expected to maintain a volatile range between 16,300 yuan/ton and 17,150 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On August 11, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.29/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,725 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The lead prices in different regions showed varying changes, with the SMM Shanghai lead spot premium unchanged at -35.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price up 25 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium up 50 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The lead refined-waste price difference remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures Market - On August 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,850 yuan/ton and closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 35,623 lots, up 4,615 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 54,395 lots, down 4,728 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 16,950 yuan/ton and a low of 16,820 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,855 yuan/ton and closed at 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On August 11, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 70,000 tons, down 110,000 tons from the same period last week. As of August 11, the LME lead inventory was 265,800 tons, down 2,575 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide straddle [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the bean meal market, the new - season US soybeans are growing well with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, but there are concerns about the policy situation. In China, although the soybean supply is sufficient and the bean meal inventory is rising, the increase in Brazilian basis and import costs support the bean meal price. The situation of new - season US soybeans and policy changes are key factors affecting the price [2] - For the corn market, the domestic market has less remaining grain compared to the same period last year, but market confidence is low. Traders are actively selling, and the upcoming harvest of North China spring corn will supplement the supply. Downstream demand is weak, and the yield of new - season corn needs continuous attention [4] Group 3: Market News and Important Data - Bean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2509 contract was 3072 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2724 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.77%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 2990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2910 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2670 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: As of the week ending July 31, Canada's rapeseed exports were 30,000 tons (60,000 tons the previous week). The total rapeseed exports in the 2024/25 season were 9.519 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.8% [1] Group 4: Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2262 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2509 contract was 2642 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: As of August 6, the 2024/25 Argentine corn harvest was 4.439 million tons, with a harvest progress of 89.3% and an average yield of 7.23 tons per hectare [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market discount is still slightly weakening, and the market trading enthusiasm is poor. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply-side incremental expectation remains unchanged. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend. However, the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$0.23/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,510 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,520 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -55 yuan/ton. [2] - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,485 yuan/ton, closed at 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,765 lots, and the open interest was 93,386 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,670 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,425 yuan/ton. [3] - **Inventory**: As of August 11, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 119,200 tons, a change of 6,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 80,425 tons, a change of -1,075 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The spot market discount is slightly weakening, and trading enthusiasm is low. The TC of domestic and imported mines continues to rise, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply - side pressure is continuously prominent. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. If the peak consumption season expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention. [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel variety, the supply surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, with continuous release of nickel intermediate product capacity and loosening of mine - end prices. However, short - term macro sentiment has pushed up nickel prices. For the stainless steel variety, the pressure of nickel - iron surplus still exists, and the retail price of ferro - chrome is strongly stable. The social inventory of stainless steel has been decreasing. Recent continuous stimulation from macro - policy news has boosted the stainless steel market, and it is expected that the stainless steel price will maintain a range - bound and slightly stronger operation in the near future [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,000 yuan/ton and closed at 122,130 yuan/ton, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 112,549 lots, and the open interest was 77,193 lots. The night session opened slightly lower, then rose slightly, fell back after reaching a high, and oscillated slightly. The day session continued to rise and stood firm at the high of 122,000 yuan in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [1] - **Nickel Ore**: In the Philippines, there was sporadic rainfall across the country, but the overall weather and sea conditions were better than the previous week. It is expected that in the third quarter, the impact of precipitation in the main producing areas will be limited, the shipping volume will remain at a high level, and the port arrival volume of ore will continue to increase with sufficient supply. Mines are mostly in the stage of fulfilling contracts and loading ships. In Indonesia, the weather has improved, the nickel ore supply is loose, and the price has slightly increased. The domestic trade benchmark price in August (Phase I) increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was mainly +24 in August (Phase I), unchanged from the previous period, with a range of +23 - 25 [1] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 124,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot transaction of refined nickel was generally average. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 20,723 (102.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 211,296 (- 936) tons [2] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On August 11, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,045 yuan/ton and closed at 13,225 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 202,613 lots, and the open interest was 135,260 lots. The night session oscillated strongly, and the day session continued to rise, closing with a positive line. Both the trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous trading day [3] - **Spot**: Boosted by the sharp rise in the SS futures market, the confidence of spot traders to be bullish has been significantly enhanced, and the quotes have increased accordingly. Small - scale traders started to replenish stocks, and the daily orders were acceptable. However, affected by the rapid price increase, some agents temporarily stopped accepting futures orders. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,200 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 13,200 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 100 - 300 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 919.0 yuan/nickel point [3] - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Brent Dubai EFS, an indicator of the strength of the East - West market, has fallen below $0.5 per barrel this year, indicating a weaker Western market and a stronger Eastern market. The strength in the Eastern market comes from Saudi Arabia's export control and China's SPR replenishment, while in the Western market, increased supply from Latin America and refinery maintenance in autumn have weakened the market, driving more arbitrage cargoes to the East. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [2][3]. 3. Summary by Section Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's September light crude oil futures rose 8 cents to $63.96 per barrel, a 0.13% increase; October Brent crude oil futures rose 4 cents to $66.63 per barrel, a 0.06% increase. SC crude oil's main contract closed up 0.30% at 494 yuan per barrel [1]. - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026 but may not start in January, and a series of tests may take up to eight months [1]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed sanctions on Russian oil with Modi and agreed to meet at the United Nations General Assembly in September and plan reciprocal visits [1]. - There may be a misunderstanding of Russia's stance on the cease - fire in Ukraine. Russia requires Ukrainian troops to withdraw from some areas, but a US envoy may have misinterpreted it [1]. - The ability of US refiners to buy heavy crude oil at low prices will improve in the second half of the year due to increased production from Canada and the Middle East. The spread between heavy and light crude oil is an important indicator of refiner profitability. Drilling in California may also recover due to regulatory adjustments [1]. Investment Logic The Brent Dubai EFS falling below $0.5 per barrel indicates a weaker Western market and a stronger Eastern market. The East is strong due to Saudi export control and China's SPR replenishment, while the West is weak due to increased supply from Latin America and refinery maintenance, leading to more cargoes flowing to the East [2]. Strategy The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3].