贵金属日报 | 2025-06-18 地缘因素令贵金属价格偏强 市场静候议息会议 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，美国5月零售销售弱于预期，但消费者支出仍然受到稳健薪资增长的支撑。美元指数在数据公布后趋弱，但 随着市场消化数据反映的喜忧参半的情况，美元迅速扭转跌势，但贵金属价格也同样走强，这或许与近期相对复 杂的地缘因素有关。明日凌晨将会迎来美联储议息会议，目前市场普遍认为美联储并不会在此次议息会议上对利 率水平做出调整。但随着特朗普持续对美联储施压敦促其降息，甚至称要更换目前美联储主席，因此未来利率下 降的可能性仍然较大。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-17，沪金主力合约开于 792.68元/克，收于 785.08元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.91%。当日成交量为 192889手，持仓量为 168935手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 785.36 元/克，收于 787.38 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.04%。 2025-06-17，沪银主力合约开于 8864元/千克，收于 8864元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 457021手，持仓量 409052手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-18 养殖需求旺盛，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3074元/吨，较前日变动+29元/吨，幅度+0.95%；菜粕2509合约2682元/吨，较前 日变动+11元/吨，幅度+0.41%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-74， 较前日变动+1；江苏地区豆粕现货2900元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动+1；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动-9。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM09-42，较前日变动+19。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至6月15日当周，美国大豆播种工作完成93%，上周90%，上年同期 92%，五年均值94%。大豆优良率为66%，上周68%，上年同期为70%。美国全国油籽加工商协会月度压榨报告显 示，5月份NOPA会员压榨大豆1.93亿蒲，比4月份的1.90亿蒲增长1.37%，比去年同期的1.84亿蒲增加5.01%。5 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-18 锌现货升水持续回落 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.01 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22010元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌40元/吨至180元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日上涨30元/吨至22020元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至190元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨30元/吨 至22030元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌20元/吨至200元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-17沪锌主力合约开于21955元/吨，收于21905元/吨，较前一交易日上涨105元/吨，全天交易日 成交124389手，较前一交易日减少39573手，全天交易日持仓105668手，较前一交易日减少10596手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到21985元/吨，最低点达到21760元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为7.81万吨，较上周同期减少-0.36万吨。截止2025-06-17，LME 锌库存为128875吨，较上一交易日减少1350吨。 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the supply and demand analysis and annual outlook of butadiene in China, covering upstream supply, downstream demand, and annual supply - demand balance [3][47] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - China's butadiene self - sufficiency rate has been above 90%, but there is still a supply - demand gap. The capacity is expanding, with an expected 761.7 million tons/year by the end of 2025, a 14.77% year - on - year increase [3][11] - In 2025, both upstream and downstream of butadiene have new projects. The downstream production growth rate is lower than the upstream, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [3][51] Summary by Directory Butadiene Upstream Supply Analysis Butadiene Capacity Historical Changes and Current Situation - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity expanded rapidly from 178.9 million tons to 359.5 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12.46%. It was mainly due to the development of the ethylene industry and new device launches [9] - From 2015 - 2016, the capacity growth rate declined, and some backward small - scale devices exited [9] - From 2017 - 2020, the capacity recovered, and the import dependence gradually decreased [10] - Since 2021, the industry has entered a mature development stage, with technological progress and a shift towards high - end products [10] - By the end of 2025, the capacity is expected to reach 761.7 million tons/year, with a 98 - million - ton new capacity this year [11][12] Butadiene Production and Imports and Exports - The self - sufficiency rate has increased, and the upstream device operating rate is stable at around 70%. In 2024, the production was 470 million tons, a 2.02% year - on - year increase. The expected nominal production growth rate this year is 9% [14] - The import dependence is stable at around 7%, mainly from South Korea, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. The import volume is expected to decline this year [14] Butadiene Downstream Demand Main Areas Analysis Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - From 2009 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 22.17%. From 2015 - 2021, the growth slowed down, and in 2016, the total capacity decreased. Since 2022, the capacity has recovered, with a 20 - million - ton new device planned in 2025 [18] - The production profit has been low since last year, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. The production profit may recover due to a lower production growth rate than butadiene [24] Styrene - Butadiene Rubber - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 14.5%. From 2015 - 2024, the growth slowed down, and in 2019 and 2024, the total capacity decreased. In 2025, a 40 - million - ton new device is planned [28][30] - The production profit improved in the first half of this year but recently declined. With more new projects, the profit is expected to weaken, and the operating rate may be affected [33] ABS - Since 2021, the capacity has been expanding, with high growth rates in 2021 - 2023 and a lower but still positive growth in 2024. The production declined in 2024, and the annual operating rate was lower [35] - The production profit was negative in 2024 on average but is currently positive, which may support the operating rate this year [35] SBS - Currently, the new capacity is stable, with a 55.5 - million - ton new capacity planned in 2025 [40] - The production gross profit is at a low level, and the operating rate is expected to be the same as last year due to weak domestic consumption [42] Nitrile Rubber - From 2008 - 2012, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 33%. From 2013 - 2021, it developed steadily, with an average growth rate of 1%. Since 2022, the growth has slowed to 7% [43] - In 2025, a 4 - million - ton new device was launched, and 3 - million - ton old capacity exited, with a net increase of 1 - million - ton. The production profit is expected to recover, and the operating rate may increase [45] Butadiene Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Outlook - In 2025, butadiene is expected to have a 98 - million - ton new capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.77%. The downstream production growth rate is lower, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [47][51] - The port inventory accounts for about 34% of the domestic social inventory on average since 2019, and the domestic social inventory accounts for about 7% of the annual cumulative production since 2016. So, the port inventory accounts for about 2.4% of the supply [3][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the trading data of various index options on June 16, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to help investors understand the market conditions of index options [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On June 16, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50ETF options was 949,300 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300ETF options (Shanghai market) was 702,900 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 500ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,149,400 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 61,300 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 775,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50 index options was 26,700 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 55,500 contracts; the total trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 1000 options was 153,600 contracts [1] - The detailed trading volume data is shown in Table 1, including call trading volume, put trading volume, and total trading volume for each type of option [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50ETF options was reported at 0.97, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05; the open interest PCR was reported at 0.94, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05. Similar data for other options are also provided, with different month - on - month changes [2] - The detailed PCR data are presented in Table 2, including turnover PCR, month - on - month change, open interest PCR, and month - on - month change for each type of option [35] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai - Shenzhen 50ETF options was reported at 14.02%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.24%. Similar data for other options are also provided, with different month - on - month changes [3] - The detailed VIX data are shown in Table 3, including VIX and month - on - month change value for each type of option [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, the industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, indicating that the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [1]. - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline, with the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities falling month - on - month and the year - on - year decline narrowing [1]. - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - view Event Overview 3.1.1. Production Industry - In May, the national industrial sector maintained growth, with the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increasing by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month [1]. 3.1.2. Service Industry - In May 2025, real estate sales continued to decline. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all fell month - on - month, with the decline in third - tier cities widening by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - Energy: International oil prices have continued to rebound [2]. - Black commodities: All black commodities have recently declined in the short term [2]. 3.2.2. Midstream - Chemical industry: The PX operating rate has recently rebounded [3]. - Infrastructure: The asphalt operating rate has continued to rise recently [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as the same period last year, at a near - three - year low [4]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased periodically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of various industries have different trends. For example, the credit spread of the chemical industry decreased from 52.63 last week to 49.66 this week, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical industry decreased from 61.31 last week to 58.32 this week [50]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries have different price trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 7.37% year - on - year, while the spot price of zinc decreased by 1.91% year - on - year [51].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways to Bearish [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [5][6][7] - Thermal Coal: No Strategy Provided [8][9] Core Views - Steel market sentiment is cautious, and steel prices are oscillating. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant currently, and future focus is on Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1] - Iron ore is in the shipping peak season, with an overall supply recovery trend. In the long - term, the supply - demand is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the molten iron output in the off - season and inventory changes [3] - Coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating. Although the supply - demand relationship has improved to some extent, the long - term supply is still loose, and the price rebound is restricted [5][6] - Thermal coal prices lack demand support in the short - term, and the supply is loose in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures main contract closed at 2,990 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3,104 yuan/ton. The national steel city inventory was 3.6911 million tons, a 3.59% week - on - week decrease; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 1.696 million tons, a 3.09% week - on - week decrease. The national building materials transaction volume was 110,200 tons. Rebar is in the consumption off - season, and weak demand will suppress prices. Hot - rolled coil has better profits and stronger production and sales resilience, but there are concerns about future consumption after the export rush fades [1] - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price oscillated narrowly. The main 2509 contract closed at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties were basically stable. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 973,000 tons, a 21.47% week - on - week increase; the forward spot trading volume was 870,000 tons, a 7.45% week - on - week decrease. The global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly to 33.53 million tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume was 23.845 million tons, an 8.6% week - on - week decrease [3] - **Strategy**: Sideways to bearish for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures prices oscillated. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1,371 yuan, up 1.90%; the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 795.5 yuan, up 2.84%. The imported Mongolian coal spot price was weaker than the futures price. Coke supply is decreasing due to narrowing profits and environmental policies, and there is a price cut expectation. Coking coal supply has decreased due to some mines' production restrictions, and downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing [5][6] - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In May, the industrial raw coal output was 4 billion tons, a 4.2% year - on - year increase. In Shanxi, environmental inspections have been upgraded, and the estimated production suspension capacity is about 10.5 million tons. The market demand is average, and the price is in a stalemate. The port market trading is sluggish, and the downstream demand is poor. The high - calorie imported coal price is firm, while the low - calorie price is falling [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [9]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Middle - East conflict has not further escalated, and oil prices have given back their gains. Although the situation has not worsened, there may be more attacks on energy facilities in the future, and oil prices will remain highly volatile in the short term. The strategy is for oil prices to oscillate strongly in the medium - term with a short - position configuration [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Oil prices declined: The July - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% drop; the August - delivery Brent crude oil futures price dropped by $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 1.94% at 530 yuan per barrel [1]. - Iran's nuclear - related situation: Iran's parliament is preparing a bill to withdraw from the NPT, but Tehran still opposes developing weapons of mass destruction. Iran won't negotiate with the US until its response to Israeli attacks is completed [1]. - Israel's stance: Israel said its actions against Iran may take 2 - 3 weeks, depending on political leadership's decisions. If Iran accepts US demands to abandon its nuclear program, Israel is willing to stop its actions [1]. - Warning from Iraq: Iraq's foreign minister warned that intensified Middle - East tensions and a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices up to $300 per barrel, raising European inflation and complicating oil exports from countries like Iraq. Closing the Strait would reduce global oil supply by about 5 million barrels per day [1]. - Goods transportation through the Strait of Hormuz: The number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz decreased slightly to 111 on the 15th, down from 116 on June 12, but major oil infrastructure has not been significantly disrupted [1]. - OPEC monthly report: OPEC maintained its 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 183,000 barrels per day to 27.02 million barrels per day, and OPEC +'s average daily production was 41.23 million barrels, an 180,000 - barrel increase from April. It expects the global economy to perform well in the second half of 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - Israel has not launched further attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure after weekend attacks. It may focus on regime power centers, assassinations, and missile/nuclear targets. The easing situation has relieved the market, but more energy - facility attacks are possible, and short - term oil prices will be highly volatile [2]. Strategy - Oil prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and a medium - term short - position configuration is recommended [3].

农产品日报 | 2025-06-17 原糖期价大幅反弹，纸浆走势依旧偏弱 棉花观点 策略 中性。尽管中美经过2天谈判后原则上达成协议框架，但当前关税政策仍存在高度不确定性，宏观利好提振有限。 新年度疆棉丰产预期较强，国内进入消费淡季，棉价持续反弹空间预计有限，短期仍以区间震荡思路对待。 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13530元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14715元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨，现货基差CF09+1185，较前一日变动-105；3128B棉全国均价14820元/吨， 较前一日变动-22元/吨，现货基差CF09+1290，较前一日变动-57。 近期市场资讯，4月泰国棉花进口量约1.0万吨，环比（约1.1万吨）略减5.7%，同比（8856吨）增加13.6%。从主要 进口来源看，美棉进口居首位，约占总进口量的49%；巴西棉排第二，占比约为25%；澳棉排第三，占比在13%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。宏观方面，近期中美贸易谈判释放积极信号，国内棉价受到提振小幅反弹。不过 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of the US routes have both increased, and the freight rates from the US East and West have declined from their highs and may have peaked. The European routes have a price increase expectation in August, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the price increase in July and the peak - time and downward slope of the freight rates in 2025 [3][6]. - The geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran may affect the shipping market, but the direct impact on container transportation is relatively small [2][5][6]. - The current strategy suggestions are that the main contract fluctuates in the single - side operation, and in the arbitrage operation, go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - **European Routes**: Multiple shipping companies have announced price increase letters for the second half of June, and some have reported shipping schedules for July. For example, HPL, CMA, and ONE have reported July shipping schedules. The MSC's price increase letter for the second half of June is 2340/3900 (previous price increase letter in the first half of June was 1920/3200) [1]. - **US Routes**: The demand for the China - US routes has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs. The freight rates have risen sharply due to the supply - demand mismatch. Currently, carriers are actively restoring capacity. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - US East and West routes in the remaining two weeks of June is 321,000 TEU, 243,400 TEU in May, and 350,000 TEU in July. The freight rates in the US East and West have increased significantly in June, but there are signs of decline recently [3]. II. Geopolitical Situation Iran has sent signals to end hostilities and resume nuclear - related negotiations. It is willing to return to the negotiation table as long as the US does not join the air strikes. However, Israel has little incentive to stop attacking before further weakening Iran's nuclear facilities [2]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The capacity pressure on the European routes in June has decreased. The weekly average capacity of the Shanghai - European routes in the remaining two weeks of June is about 236,500 TEU. The weekly average capacity in July is 279,400 TEU, and there are currently 5 blank sailings in July and 1 in August [4]. - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of June 15, 2025, 126 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.004 million TEU [7]. IV. Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: As of June 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for European routes is 91,123 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 88,628 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as 1453.60 for the EC2602 contract and 1934.30 for the EC2506 contract [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The SCFI (Shanghai - US West) freight rate is currently 4120 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 1965 US dollars/FEU), and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) freight rate is 6745 US dollars/FEU (the lowest this year was 2866 US dollars/FEU). The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on June 16 was 1697.63 points [3][7]. V. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 08 contract and short on the 10 contract, go long on the 12 contract and short on the 10 contract [8].