Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The pre - holiday stocking sentiment in the urea market is difficult to sustain, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. Although the transaction volume has improved after prices in Shandong and Henan fell below previous lows, the sustainability is weak. Domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating [1][2] Section Summaries Price and Spread - Urea futures prices: The urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (- 5). Spot prices: The market price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1610 yuan/ton (+ 0), in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1600 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis of urea in Shandong was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), in Henan was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), and in Jiangsu was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 5). Urea production profit was 70.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), and export profit was 1069.6 yuan/ton (- 88.4) [1] Upstream Supply - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (unchanged). The urea production is running at a high level [1][2] Downstream Demand - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (- 3.36%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+ 3.8%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+ 0.5). The domestic demand for urea is weak. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers shows low enthusiasm for purchasing, with sporadic purchases at low prices, and melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory - As of September 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of enterprises was 121.8 million tons (+ 5.3), and the port inventory was 49.6 million tons (- 2.0). The in - factory inventory of urea continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-09-28 海外库存矛盾难解 重要数据 2025-09-26沪锌主力合约收盘于21980元/吨，波动0.07%，LME价格收盘于2886.5美元/吨，波动-0.01%。华东地区 现货价格21950元/吨，对主力合约升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化-5元/吨，广东地区现货价格21990元/吨，对主力合约 升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化+10元/吨，天津地区现货价格21950元/吨，对主力合约升贴水-60元/吨，环比变化-5元/ 吨。LME（0-3）升贴水53.93美元/吨，环比变化-5.71美元/吨。 供应：2025-09-26SMM国产锌精矿周度加工费3650元/金属吨，周度环比波动-200 元/吨，进口锌精矿周度加工费指 数115.90美元/干吨，周度环比波动4.65美元/干吨，锌精矿进口盈亏-2123.98元/吨。 消费：镀锌企业开工率55.82%，环比变化-2.23%，压铸锌合金开工率49.73%较上周变化-4.05%，氧化锌企业开工 率58.45%较上周变化+0.34%。 库存：根据SMM统计，截至2025-09-25，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为15.04万吨，较上周同期变 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in production areas, raw materials are expected to increase, but raw material prices may decline, and the cost - side support will weaken. Demand will drop during the holiday, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - For butadiene rubber, the upstream of cis - butadiene rubber still has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after the raw material replenishment by downstream. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Thailand glue is 54.80 Thai baht/kg, cup - lumps is 51.05 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue is 14,600 yuan/ton, Hainan glue is 14,500 yuan/ton. RU basis is - 820 yuan/ton, NR basis is 836 yuan/ton, BR basis is - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed is 14,850 yuan/ton, Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,860 US dollars/ton, Indonesian 20 standard rubber is 1,750 US dollars/ton, and Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price is 11,700 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: The inbound rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 8.50%, the general trade inbound rate is 9.62%, and the bonded warehouse inbound rate is 2.47%. The high - cis butadiene rubber operating rate is 66.41%, and the output is 26,665 tons [1] - **Production Profit**: The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 221.00 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 2,622.00 yuan/ton, cis - butadiene rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, and carbon - four extraction butadiene is 1,861.10 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires is 66.39%, semi - steel tires is 72.64%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province is 39.16 days, and semi - steel tires is 46.15 days [2] - **Inventory**: The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons, the social inventory is 1,112,557 tons, the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 149,420 tons, and the NR futures inventory is 42,942 tons. The upstream butadiene port inventory is 27,750 tons, the cis - butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory is 5,700 tons [2] Market Analysis - **Natural Rubber**: With less rainfall in production areas, raw materials will increase, but prices may fall. During the holiday, demand will decline, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The upstream of cis - butadiene rubber has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after raw material replenishment. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Strategy - RU and NR are neutral. The tight spot price pattern remains, but inventory de - stocking may slow. The valuation is low, and the downside space is limited after the new state reserve release news [4] - BR is neutral. Supply - side support exists due to device maintenance. Demand will decline during the holiday. High inventory may lead to a slight decline following natural rubber [4]

氯碱周报 | 2025-09-28 烧碱主力下游继续下调接货价 烧碱：主力下游继续下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 价格方面：截至2025-09-26，烧碱期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2528元/吨（-9）；山东32%液碱基差-28元/吨（+9）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 供应方面：烧碱开工率82.50%，（+0.60%）；烧碱周度产量81.29万吨（+0.60）。 需求方面：主力下游氧化铝开工率85.95%（-0.28%），氧化铝周度产量185.50万吨（-0.60），氧化铝港口库存7.20 （+1.40）；印染华东开工率66.15%（+0.39%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.82%（+0.30%）；白卡纸开工率：82.72%（+0.69%）； 阔叶浆开工率84.70%（+2.50%）。 生产利润方面：截至2025-09-26，山东氯碱综合利润（1吨烧碱+0.8吨液氯）725.78元/吨（+0.00），山东氯碱综合利 润（1吨烧碱+1吨PVC）179.78元/吨（+0.00），山东烧碱单品种利润1508.90元/吨（+0.00），西北氯碱综合利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices have basically returned to the fundamental logic, with high inventories and an unchanged pattern of oversupply. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. For stainless steel, the eleven - week consecutive decline in inventory has ended, and accumulation has begun. The peak season is lackluster, and downstream demand has not improved significantly. With weakening cost support at the raw material end, stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis of Nickel - **Price**: This week, the price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 121,380 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 120 yuan/ton from the opening price on Monday. The weekly price fluctuation range was 120,670 - 123,550 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 2.39%. LME nickel prices slightly declined to 15,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. In the spot market, the latest offer of Jinchuan nickel's premium over the SHFE 2510 contract remained unchanged from last week, while the real - time converted premium in the Shanghai area decreased by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [1]. - **Macro**: At the beginning of the week, cautious remarks from Fed officials on the prospect of interest rate cuts strengthened the US dollar, and the unchanged LPR in China reduced market risk appetite. Subsequently, the central bank's liquidity injection and the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts warmed up the sentiment in the base metals sector, but the strong US economic data caused a rebound in the US dollar and a retreat of funds [2]. - **Supply**: In the nickel ore market, Philippine mine quotes remained firm, and the new typhoon "Boloiyu" was expected to affect local mine shipments. In Indonesia, although the supply of nickel ore was loose, there were frequent disturbances. In terms of refined nickel, China's refined nickel output in August 2025 was 36,695 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.50% and a year - on - year increase of 29.62% [2]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 37,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.66% and a year - on - year increase of 81.16%. However, the overall increase in consumption was less than that on the supply side [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different production methods of electrowon nickel varied. For example, the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel was 117,171 yuan/ton, with a profit of 3.20%, while the cost of externally purchased nickel sulfate production of electrowon nickel was 136,583 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 11.20% [3]. - **Inventory**: This week, SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 504 tons to 29,008 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 230,124 tons, and China's (including bonded areas) refined nickel inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 40,440 tons [3]. Strategy for Nickel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: Adopt the idea of selling hedging on rallies in the medium - to - long - term - Options: None [4] Market Analysis of Stainless Steel - **Price**: This week, the main stainless steel futures contract showed a weak oscillating pattern, closing at 12,840 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton from last week. The spot procurement sentiment was frustrated, and the pre - holiday procurement demand did not appear as expected [4]. - **Macro**: The central bank's liquidity injection boosted market risk appetite, but the Fed's internal differences after the rate cut and the approaching National Day holiday led to a decline in market trading activity [5]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the output of stainless steel increased month - on - month. The output of the 200 - series increased by 8.97% month - on - month, the 300 - series increased by 2.44% month - on - month, and the 400 - series decreased by 0.5% month - on - month [5]. - **Consumption**: The traditional peak consumption season effect did not appear. Downstream terminals were cautious in purchasing. Although real - estate sales increased year - on - year, new construction areas decreased year - on - year, and the demand in the automotive retail sector declined [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: This week, the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel ended its continuous rise since July and slightly declined, while the price of high - carbon ferro - chrome slightly increased but lacked further upward momentum [6]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream markets across the country increased week - on - week, ending the eleven - week consecutive decline [6]. Strategy for Stainless Steel - Unilateral: None - Inter - delivery spread: None - Cross - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: None [5] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol (EG) market was weak, with a slight rebound in the middle of the week due to marginal improvement in demand. However, overall buying interest was weak, and trading volume decreased approaching the holiday. The spot basis declined. It is expected that the port inventory of EG will increase significantly after the National Day holiday as foreign ships are expected to arrive in large numbers, leading to poor inventory - holding intentions among traders before the holiday. [2] - On the supply side, the overall operating load of EG in mainland China is at a high level. Although the total load has decreased with the implementation of maintenance of syngas - based plants this week, overseas supply losses are still significant. [2][4] - On the demand side, the load of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has increased, and the sales of filament have improved significantly due to pre - holiday restocking. However, the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of the demand recovery needs to be observed. [3] - The overall near - end EG balance sheet has no major contradictions, and the port inventory is expected to remain at a low level. But there is significant pressure to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is expected to increase significantly after the holiday. [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Spread - This week, the domestic EG market was weak. There was a marginal improvement in demand in the middle of the week, leading to a slight rebound, but overall buying interest was weak. Trading volume decreased approaching the holiday, and the spot basis declined. At the beginning of the week, the EG futures market was weak. Some traders with contract shortages participated in restocking. However, due to the expected large number of foreign ship arrivals during the National Day holiday, the intention of traders to hold inventory before the holiday was poor, and the spot basis of EG quickly declined. The low - level transaction of the EG spot basis was at a premium of 56 - 60 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. [2] 3.2 Supply - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 73.08% (a 1.85% decrease from last week), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) is 74.36% (a 5.02% decrease from last week). With the implementation of maintenance of syngas - based plants this week, the total load of EG decreased, but the overall domestic total load is still at a high level. Overseas, there are still many supply losses, and more than two sets of plants in Saudi Arabia are still in a shutdown or low - load operation state. [2][4] 3.3 Demand - The load of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 70.0% (a 4.0% increase from last week), the load of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 81.0% (a 3.0% increase from last week), the polyester operating rate is 90.30% (a 1.10% decrease from last week), and the direct - spun filament load is 93.50% (a 0.40% decrease from last week). The inventory days of POY decreased by 7.9 days to 13.8 days, the inventory days of FDY decreased by 7.0 days to 15.7 days, and the inventory days of DTY decreased by 3.7 days to 25.8 days. The operating rate of staple fiber factories is 95.4% (unchanged), and the inventory days of staple fiber factory equity decreased by 1.8 days to 9.3 days; the operating rate of bottle - chip factories is 67.8% (a 4.2% decrease from last week). This week, the load of weaving and texturing increased, orders improved marginally, and combined with pre - National Day restocking demand, the sales of filament increased significantly, and the product inventory of polyester factories decreased substantially. The polyester load decreased slightly due to the impact of a typhoon in South China and has now restarted. However, the inventory of grey cloth is still high, and the pressure remains. It is necessary to focus on the duration of the subsequent demand improvement. In terms of polyester load, it is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly increase in September, and the load increase of bottle - chips may be limited due to the rotation of maintenance and restart. [3] 3.4 Inventory - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 46.7 tons (a 0.2 - ton increase from last week); according to the data released by Longzhong every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 40.0 tons (a 1.7 - ton increase from last week). The total planned arrivals at the main ports of East China this week are 9.3 tons, and the arrival volume is moderate. Longzhong inventory has slightly increased, and the main port inventory is at a low level. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean and peanut markets is neutral [1][4][8] Core Viewpoints - The pressure on the futures market is gradually increasing as various oilseeds are coming onto the market [1] - For soybeans, new season soybeans in the Northeast are gradually being listed, and supply is expected to increase. Currently, downstream demand is not fully released [2][3] - For peanuts, peanuts in various regions are gradually being listed, and supply pressure will continue to be released. Short - term demand may weaken [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the main soybean contract 2511 this week was 3935 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 31 yuan, or 0.8% [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans in various regions decreased compared to last week [1] Soybean Supply and Demand - Arrival forecast: In September 2025, the total arrival of Brazilian, Argentine and US soybeans in China is expected to be 10.14 million tons. New season soybeans in the Northeast are sporadically listed, and large - scale listing is expected at the end of the month. Currently, supply pressure is not obvious, and downstream demand is not fully released [2][3] Market Analysis - New season soybeans in the Northeast are gradually being listed, and supply is expected to increase during the National Day holiday [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] Peanut Market Analysis Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract this week was 7798 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan, or 0.5% [4] - Spot: The spot basis in various regions showed different degrees of increase [4] Peanut Supply and Demand - As of September 25, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises decreased by 10,850 tons compared to last week. The arrival volume of oil mills increased, and the trading volume of the commodity rice market was weak [5][6] Market Analysis - As of September 25, the average price of national common peanuts increased by 0.08 yuan/jin week - on - week, or 1.15%. Peanuts in various regions are gradually being listed, and supply pressure will continue to be released. Short - term demand may weaken [7] Strategy - The investment strategy for peanuts is neutral [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass market is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with slight inventory reduction but limited overall changes. The glass price is volatile due to macro policies, while the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro policies and peak-season demand [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash persists. With the ignition of Yuanxing Phase II, the supply pressure will increase. Focus on whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, and monitor new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, the glass main contract 2601 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,252 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 2.88% increase. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,178 yuan/ton, a 14.9 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week [1][5]. - This week, the soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1,293 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 1.93% decrease. The downstream demand for soda ash was stable, mainly for pre - holiday rigid restocking [1][5]. Supply - This week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a 0.25% increase from the previous week [1][17]. - This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from the previous week; the output was 776,900 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous week [2][17]. Demand - This week, the glass trading sentiment was boosted by macro policies. The futures and spot markets resonated, with downstream prices rising and purchasing enthusiasm increasing. There was pre - holiday rigid restocking, and the production - sales ratio improved [1][19]. - This week, the downstream of soda ash mainly engaged in pre - holiday rigid restocking. The photovoltaic glass and float glass operations were stable, with no obvious changes in production lines [2][19]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 2.55% decrease from the previous week, indicating inventory reduction [1][23]. - This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, showing inventory reduction [2][23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - L, PP neutral; L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread; no cross - variety strategy [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Demand follow - up for both PE and PP is weak, suppressing their upward space. PE supply is increasing while demand improvement is limited, and inventory reduction is slow. PP demand is slowly recovering, and it is restricted by supply and has limited profit space [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7159 yuan/ton (-10), PP main contract at 6893 yuan/ton (-5). LL North China spot was 7140 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China spot 7140 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6750 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was -29 yuan/ton (+10), LL East China basis -19 yuan/ton (+10), PP East China basis -143 yuan/ton (+5) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP operating rate 75.5% (+0.6%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was -1.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PP oil - based production profit -631.8 yuan/ton (-55.8), PDH - made PP production profit -264.0 yuan/ton (-39.2) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was -56.7 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP import profit -532.6 yuan/ton (-1.9), PP export profit 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 61.4% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is increasing as many restarted devices and few new planned maintenance. Demand has a slight improvement in pre - holiday stocking, but follow - up is insufficient. Cost support from oil prices is weak, and the market is in a volatile trend [2] - **PP**: Supply may increase as the restart of devices is expected to exceed maintenance. Demand is slowly recovering, but support is limited. Cost is affected by weak oil prices and strong propane, and profit restricts the downward space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: L, PP neutral [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Cross - variety**: None [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the return of device maintenance, pay attention to the PL01 - 02 high - level reverse spread opportunity; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Upstream device restart expectations and insufficient downstream demand drive the recent weak operation of propylene spot, and the futures market also fluctuates at a low level. On the supply side, the restart and capacity increase of Shandong Zhenhua's PDH device, the expected restart of Qingdao Jinneng, and the release of new capacity from Yulong increase the supply pressure in the short term. On the demand side, downstream factories' pre - holiday stocking provides short - term support, but the stocking demand is poor due to cost pressure, with mainly low - price rigid demand purchases. In terms of cost, geopolitical tensions and the firmness of the external propane price support the cost side of propylene [2] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The report shows data on the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China and North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, and market prices in East China and Shandong [1][5] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes data on the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][24][29] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - The report presents data on the price differences between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - It contains data on the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [1][40] 5. Propylene Inventory - The report shows data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [67]