黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 进入用煤淡季，煤炭需求转弱 市场分析 期货与现货价格：产地指数：截至9月26日，榆林5800大卡指数601.0元/吨，周环比上涨3元/吨；鄂尔多斯5500大卡 指数534.0元/吨，周环比上涨13元/吨；大同5500大卡指数595.0元/吨；周环比上涨19元/吨。港口指数：截至9月26 日， CCI进口4700指数报69.7美元/吨，周环比上涨0.4美元/吨，CCI进口3800指数报54.0美元/吨，周环比上涨0.3美 元/吨。 港口方面：截至到9月26日，北方港港口总库存2079万吨，较上周增加18万吨，港口库存持续累积。 电厂方面：截至到9月26日，沿海 6大电厂煤炭库存 1386万吨，环比增加41.3万吨；平均可用天数为 16天，环比 增加1天；沿海六大电厂日耗85.6万吨，环比减少2.1万吨。 整体来看：产地方面，近期主产地供应明显增加，产能维持高位。下游冶金、化工等非电按需采购，产区价格小 幅上涨。港口方面，港口受调入地位影响，库存持续增加，预计后期电厂日耗持续回落，贸易商报价维稳，优质 低硫资源偏紧。进口方面，进口市场整体活跃度不高，下游电厂库存相对充足，当 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are short - term neutral and medium - term bearish. For PX, the supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is significantly weakened, with the shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation and weakened support below. For TA, the near - term fundamentals are okay, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure due to new device commissioning expectations. For PF, the short - term supply - demand is better than the raw material end, but the upward momentum is weak. For PR, the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5][6]. 2. Core View of the Report - Cost side: Oil prices rebounded this week. Geopolitical factors such as Ukraine's attacks on Russia and EU sanctions on "shadow oil tanker fleets" affected the market. The development of the geopolitical situation and the OPEC meeting during the National Day should be followed up [1]. - PX: China's PX operating rate is 86.7% (up 0.5% week - on - week), and Asia's is 78% (down 0.3% week - on - week). The domestic PX load has gradually recovered, but the PXN is still under pressure due to the postponement of fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some devices. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weakened [1]. - TA: China's PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged week - on - week), and the spot processing fee is 205 yuan/ton. The PTA load has changed little, and the processing fee has recovered. The inventory accumulation in October - November is narrowed, but there is large inventory accumulation pressure in December [2]. - Demand: The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 70.0% (up 4.0% week - on - week), and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (down 1.1% week - on - week). The weaving and texturing loads have increased, and the filament sales have improved, but the polyester load increase is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement should be concerned [2]. - PF: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber operating rate is 95.4% (unchanged week - on - week). The supply - demand of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than the raw material end in the short term, and the demand at the low price is okay [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip factory operating rate (based on maximum capacity) is 67.8% (down 4.2%). The supply - demand pressure is still large under the commissioning pressure of new devices, and the spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range [4]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Price and Spread - The report presents the trends and spreads of TA, PX, PF, and PR's main contracts, as well as the processing fees of PX, PTA, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, etc. [10][11][12][16][26][29] PX and PTA Supply - It shows the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX loads in China and Asia [46][47][52]. Inventory - Displays the social inventories of PTA and PX, and the warehouse inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [57][60][66]. Demand - Covers the sales of filaments and short - fibers, the polyester load, the operating rates of looms, texturing machines, and printing and dyeing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and the profits of filaments [68][72][74][77][82][84]. PF Supply, Demand and Inventory - Includes the load of polyester staple fiber, the factory's equity inventory days, the physical and equity inventories of 1.4D, the operating rates of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn, and their production profits and inventories [92][96][97][98][101]. PR Supply, Demand and Inventory - Presents the load of polyester bottle - chips, the factory's bottle - chip inventory days, the spot and export processing fees, and the export profits of bottle - chips [110][111][115].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3] - Options: On hold [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with silver prices breaking through $46 per ounce, reaching a 14 - year high. The Fed's future interest - rate cut path remains uncertain, but the market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts. Meanwhile, the resurgence of US tariffs has increased risk - aversion sentiment, boosting precious metal prices [1]. - Based on the current situation, gold may continue a relatively strong volatile trend, and silver shows strong performance based on rate - cut expectations. There is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio, but attention should be paid to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, precious metal prices continued to be strong. Fed Chair Powell emphasized the two - way nature of policy risks. US Treasury Secretary Besent believes that interest rates are still too high and need to be cut by at least 100 - 150 basis points. Many Fed officials have a dovish stance. The market is more inclined to bet on consecutive rate cuts, with an 87.7% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October according to Fedwatch. US President Trump plans to impose high tariffs on various imported goods starting from October 1 [1]. Fundamental - aspect - In the week of September 26, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts changed by 8397 kilograms to 65826 kilograms, and silver warehouse receipts changed by - 1177 kilograms to 1158266 kilograms. Comex gold inventory changed by 482874.92 ounces to 39946410.45 ounces, and Comex silver inventory changed by 6301249.93 ounces to 530344533.33 ounces. Gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 11.16 tons to 1005.72 tons, and silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 156.86 tons to 15362 tons. As of September 23, 2025, gold speculative net - long positions increased by 0.13% to 266749 contracts, and silver net - long positions increased by 1.43% to 52276 contracts. The CSI 300 index rose 1.07% compared to the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell 1.34%, and the photovoltaic sector rose 0.47%. The photovoltaic price index reached 15.73 as of September 22, 2025, up 0.53 from the previous period, and the photovoltaic manager index was 119.66 as of September 15, down 5.43 month - on - month [2]. Strategy - aspect - Gold: The Fed's rate - cut path is unclear, but dovish signals from many officials and the resurgence of US tariffs may lead to a relatively strong volatile trend in gold prices, with the price range between 855 yuan/gram - 875 yuan/gram [3]. - Silver: Silver prices are strong based on rate - cut expectations, and there is a need to repair the gold - silver ratio. One can continue to buy on dips for hedging, but pay more attention to position control and strict stop - loss execution [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [3]. - Options: On hold [3]

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2 - Report's Core View - This week, the bond market declined overall. At the beginning of the week, the three departments' press conference did not release further easing signals, and the market's expectations were disappointed. After Wednesday, as institutions bought long - term treasury bonds at low prices and the central bank resumed 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, the market gradually stabilized and rebounded. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates first rose and then fell due to the end - of - quarter factor, and the central bank carried out net MLF and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity [3] Group 3 - Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - economic Aspect - **Policy**: From August 8, 2025, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to VAT. The 24% tariff between China and the US will be suspended for 90 days from August 12. The government emphasizes measures to stabilize the real estate market, expand consumption and investment, and implement more proactive macro - policies [1] - **Inflation**: In August, the CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [1] Capital Aspect - **Finance**: At the end of August, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 rebounded to 6%, and the gap between them narrowed. The RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan in the first eight months, and the cumulative social financing increment was 26.56 trillion yuan. The growth rates of credit and deposits both declined slightly [2] - **Central Bank**: On September 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 165.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. This week, the central bank conducted net MLF operations of 30 billion yuan and 14 - day reverse repurchase operations of 90 billion yuan [2][3] - **Money Market**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.32%, 1.53%, and 1.71% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2] Market Aspect - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On September 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.34 yuan, 105.54 yuan, 107.68 yuan, and 114.19 yuan respectively. The weekly fluctuations were - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.27%, and - 0.82% respectively [2] - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, 0.02 yuan, and - 0.54 yuan respectively [2] Strategy Aspect - **Single - side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [4] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the basis spread rebound of TL2512 [4] - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silicon manganese: Volatile [3] - Silicon iron: Volatile [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The silicon manganese market consolidated this week. After the downstream pre-holiday restocking ended, the market showed weakness. The silicon iron futures first rose and then declined. Both are expected to fluctuate with the sector, and attention should be paid to regional policies and electricity price changes [1][2] - The supply of silicon manganese decreased this week, while the demand increased slightly. The supply of silicon iron increased, and the demand also increased. The overall supply of both is still relatively loose [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - Silicon manganese futures closed at 5,848 yuan/ton on Friday, down 116 yuan/ton from last Sunday. The spot price in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [1][5] - Silicon iron futures closed at 5,660 yuan/ton on the last trading day of the week, down 76 yuan/ton from last week. The cash含税 ex-factory price of 72 silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 silicon iron was 5,900 - 6,200 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - The operating rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 44.18%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week. The daily output was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 335 tons [1][8] - The silicon iron output this week was 114,500 tons, an increase of 1.2% from the previous week. The national operating rate was 35.33%, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week [2][8] Demand - The demand for silicon manganese in the five major steel products this week was 122,500 tons, an increase of 0.8% from the previous week [1][15] - The weekly demand for silicon iron in the five major steel products was 19,900 tons, an increase of 1.4% from the previous week [2][15] Inventory - The inventory of silicon manganese alloy enterprises increased, while the factory inventory of silicon iron decreased [1][2][19]

黑色建材周报 | 2025-09-28 节前补库结束，铁矿区间震荡 市场分析 本周铁矿石价格窄幅震荡，截止周五收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于790元/吨，周环比下降17.5元/吨，跌幅1.13%。 Mysteel62%澳粉远期价格指数103.4美元/吨。下跌2.3，青岛港PB粉价格785元/吨，周环比下跌14元/吨。 供应方面：Mysteel统计最新数据显示，本期全球铁矿石发运3324.8万吨，周环比下降248.3万吨，下降幅度6.95% 其中巴西和非主流发运显著减少。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2675万吨，周环比增加312.7万吨。 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率84.45%，环比上周增加0.47个百分点，同比去年增加6.22个百分点； 高炉炼铁产能利用率90.86%，环比上周增加0.51个百分点 ，同比去年增加6.41个百分点；钢厂盈利率58.01%，环 比上周减少0.86个百分点，同比去年增加39.4个百分点；日均铁水产量242.36万吨，环比上周增加1.34万吨，同步 去年增加17.50万吨。 库存方面：Mysteel统计，全国45港铁矿石库存总量14000.28万吨，环比累库19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has shown signs of stabilization, with reduced supply pressure and marginal improvement in refinery demand. However, there is still resistance above the valuation due to potential seasonal consumption decline. The low - sulfur fuel oil market has limited supply pressure, and there are long - term substitution risks, but the downside space is also limited [5]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. For low - sulfur fuel oil, the short - term outlook is neutral, and the medium - term outlook is downward. It is recommended to go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading) [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, crude oil prices rebounded this week, boosting the downstream energy sector. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil improved marginally, and the cancellation of some FU futures warehouse receipts strengthened the futures market structure. The weekly increase of the FU main contract was 4.36%, and that of the LU main contract was 1.9% [1]. Supply - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of high - sulfur fuel oil from Iran are 1280,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 460,000 tons; from Russia, 2.89 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 330,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 70,000 tons; from the Middle East, 2.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons [2]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: In September, the expected shipments of low - sulfur fuel oil from Nigeria are 530,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 220,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 530,000 tons; from Kuwait, 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 130,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. Brazilian exports decreased significantly in September. In August, the domestic production of low - sulfur fuel oil for bonded use in Chinese refineries was 1.065 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 46,000 tons or 4.51%. Overall, the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is still limited [2]. Demand - Although the impact of US tariffs on shipping demand has not been fully reflected, there is still downward pressure on trade and shipping demand in the medium term. High - sulfur fuel oil demand in the marine fuel sector is more resilient, but the summer power generation demand has not exceeded the seasonal level. The demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel sector is average, and its market share is being gradually replaced [3]. Inventory - This week, the fuel oil inventory in Singapore was 22.804 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 10.26%; the fuel oil inventory in Zhoushan Port was 1.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.19% [4]. Strategy - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward. - **Cross - variety**: None. - **Cross - period**: Go long on the FU2511 - 2512 spread at low prices (positive spread trading). - **Spot - futures**: None. - **Options**: None [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "shockingly weak" [3] Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic strong policy expectations pulse boost low - valued commodity prices, causing significant disturbances to the market. Due to holiday restocking, steel supply and demand improved this week with continuous inventory reduction, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure during the holiday. Considering the seasonal weakening of steel demand later, supply needs to be suppressed to relieve future inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to post - holiday inventory and raw material cost support [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis Price and Spread - The rebar main contract 2601 closed at 3099 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2601 closed at 3301 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - On September 27, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 242.36 million tons, a 1.34 - million - ton increase from the previous week and a 17.50 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 39.40 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [1][22] Consumption - The total apparent demand for the five major steel products was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous period. Building material consumption increased by 3.4%, and plate consumption increased by 2.5% [1][26] Inventory - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 864.93 million tons, a 9.47 - million - ton increase from the previous week, an increase of 1.1%. The total inventory was 1510.61 million tons, a 9.13 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a decrease of 0.6%. The apparent consumption was 874.06 million tons, a 2.8% increase from the previous week [1][30] Strategy - The unilateral strategy is "shockingly weak", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed little. Industrial silicon inventory has started to accumulate slightly, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. The price fluctuates with policy disturbances and overall commodity sentiment. Polysilicon is also in a wide - range shock state, affected by factors such as self - regulatory production cuts and policies [2][3][4]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and in the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Price**: In the week of September 26, the industrial silicon futures opened high and closed low. The spot prices continued to rise slightly. As of September 25, the price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week; 441 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; 3303 silicon was 10,500 - 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: The supply side changed little this week, with the weekly output remaining flat at 58,200 tons. The number of metal silicon furnaces in operation decreased by 1 compared with last week. As of September 25, the number of operating furnaces was 310, with an overall operating rate of 38.94% [2]. - **Demand**: The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream aluminum alloys declined slightly. The output of aluminum strips and foils and aluminum rods decreased. The operating rate of organic silicon was 71.2%, with some devices reducing production or under maintenance. The weekly output of DMC decreased slightly. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 100 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The total industry inventory increased slightly. As of September 26, the inventory in the metal silicon futures delivery warehouse was 250,665 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons from September 19. The total industry inventory was 944,900 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from last week [3]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices changed little this week, and the overall cost remained stable [3]. - **Profit**: Self - power - generation enterprises still had good profits. After the rebound of the futures price, most enterprises were not losing money according to cash cost accounting, but some still faced cost pressure according to full - cost accounting [3]. - **Strategy** - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have changed little. In the short term, there is no clear policy drive, and the price may fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. For trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation [4]. Polysilicon - **Spot Market** - **Price**: This week, the polysilicon price index was 52.4 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and the price of granular silicon was 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The overall market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price was in a wide - range shock and trended weakly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of polysilicon increased slightly this week, reaching 31,100 tons. The production reduction in October may be less than expected, and attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry season and the impact of industry policies [4]. - **Demand**: In September, the domestic silicon wafer production schedule was good. It is expected to start reducing production in October. The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers increased slightly this week. The production schedule of battery cells in September increased by 2.3% compared with August, and the production schedule of components decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, a change of 10.8% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23GW, a change of - 3.8% month - on - month [6]. - **Cost**: The cost changed little this week. Most enterprises' full - cost after tax was about 45,000 yuan/ton, except for some enterprises with lower electricity prices [6]. - **Strategy** - The self - regulatory production cuts of polysilicon are average, and the overall fundamentals are average. There is great pressure on inventory accumulation in recent months. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The lithium carbonate futures market maintained a volatile trend this week. The main contract 2511 closed at 72,880 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46% and a position volume of 248,640 tons. Spot prices changed little, and spot trading was average. When futures prices declined, it stimulated some point-price procurement demand [2]. - On the supply side, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly to 20,516 tons. Output from various sources such as spodumene, mica, salt lakes, and recycling all showed different degrees of change [2]. - On the consumption side, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.08% month-on-month, while that of ternary materials, cobalt acid lithium, and manganese acid lithium increased. Downstream production was expected to increase, and the demand in the terminal power battery and energy storage markets supported the demand for lithium salts, but the actual replenishment was lower than expected [3]. - In terms of inventory, the total inventory decreased by 705 tons compared to last week. Inventory continued to transfer, with an increase in downstream replenishment inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [3]. - In terms of profit, lithium ore prices fluctuated slightly, and overseas mines were reluctant to lower prices. Enterprises using externally purchased raw materials relied on futures hedging to balance profits and losses. Enterprises with their own ore sources and salt lake lithium extraction had significant cost advantages and relatively stable profit margins [3]. - The output of lithium hydroxide increased slightly this week. Due to high upstream spodumene prices and production line maintenance, the overall supply capacity of the lithium hydroxide market remained tight [4]. Strategy - The futures market maintained a volatile trend in the short term. There was some support from consumption, and the pre - National Day replenishment demand still existed. Although the disturbance in the ore sector weakened, it did not end completely. If mines resumed production and consumption weakened in the future, the market might be weak [5]. - For unilateral operations, short - term range trading was recommended. If the market rebounded significantly, selling hedging could be considered. There were no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].