-0123456789:2025-08-13 !"#$%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'(! !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'() *+,-./01121/34 5) !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 8 月 12 日晚美国劳工部公布 7 月通胀数字。其中： 同比：CPI+2.7%，预期+2.8%，前值+2.7%；核心 CPI+3.1%，预期+3.0%，前值+2.9%。 环比：CPI+0.2%，预期+0.2%，前值+0.3%；核心 CPI+0.3%，预期+0.3%，前值+0.2%。 &'"( ■ 7 ! CPI "# 7 月美国 CPI 与核心 CPI 走势分化明显，揭示出通胀的结构性特征。总体 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%、环比 0.2%，低于市场预期，受汽油与能源价格下跌拖累，显示短期波动项对整 体物价的压制作用；核心 CPI 剔除食品与能源后同比升至 3.1%、环比 0.3%，主要受住 房、医疗、交通运输等服务价格上涨推动，反映工资与人工成本的粘性支撑。商品端 通胀整体温和，仅二手车、新车等关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the trading data of various index options on August 11, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market situation of index options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On August 11, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 907,200 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,022,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,479,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 152,700 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,519,500 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 44,600 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 116,400 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 321,800 contracts [1] - The specific trading volume data of call and put options for each type of option are presented in a table, including call trading volume, put trading volume, and total trading volume [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.67, with a month - on - month change of - 0.12; the position PCR was reported at 0.96, with a month - on - month change of - 0.01 - The turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 0.58, with a month - on - month change of - 0.20; the position PCR was reported at 1.01, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 - The turnover PCR of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 0.54, with a month - on - month change of - 0.35; the position PCR was reported at 1.20, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05 - The turnover PCR of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was reported at 0.51, with a month - on - month change of - 0.48; the position PCR was reported at 1.05, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05 - The turnover PCR of ChiNext ETF options was reported at 0.54, with a month - on - month change of - 0.23; the position PCR was reported at 1.05, with a month - on - month change of + 0.10 - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was reported at 0.45, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02; the position PCR was reported at 0.55, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03 - The turnover PCR of CSI 300 index options was reported at 0.38, with a month - on - month change of - 0.11; the position PCR was reported at 0.75, with a month - on - month change of + 0.00 - The turnover PCR of CSI 1000 index options was reported at 0.36, with a month - on - month change of - 0.17; the position PCR was reported at 1.16, with a month - on - month change of + 0.07 [2][35] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 15.95%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.56% - The VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 15.66%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.12% - The VIX of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 19.58%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.50% - The VIX of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was reported at 19.49%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.47% - The VIX of ChiNext ETF options was reported at 25.36%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.23% - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was reported at 17.82%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.79% - The VIX of CSI 300 index options was reported at 17.67%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.29% - The VIX of CSI 1000 index options was reported at 22.25%, with a month - on - month change of + 0.48% [3][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's team is expanding the scope of candidates for the Fed Chair, and the White House is expected to announce the nominee this fall. Fed Governor Bowman believes the Fed should cut interest rates, and she expects rate cuts in the remaining three FOMC meetings this year, which strengthens the easing expectation for precious metals. The short-term trading logic of precious metals remains focused on easing. The market should follow up on US economic data such as CPI [1]. - Trump posted that there will be no tariff on gold, causing a significant correction in New York gold. However, the market had already priced in the clarification of the gold tariff by the White House. The short-term trading logic of precious metals remains unchanged [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On August 11, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 787.02 yuan/gram and closed at 779.48 yuan/gram, down 1.06% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 777.52 yuan/gram and closed at 777.98 yuan/gram, down 0.19% from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On August 11, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,260.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,210.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.73% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 386,995 lots, and the open interest was 358,701 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,180 yuan/kilogram and closed at 9,158 yuan/kilogram, down 0.56% from the afternoon closing price [2]. 3.2 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 11, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.27%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 3.3 Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 753 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 669 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 356,605 lots, up 38.66% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 3,808 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,082 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 591,294 lots, up 35.36% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.4 Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF on the previous day was 964.22 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,058.6 tons, an increase of 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.5 Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 11, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was -10.79 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -682.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.63, up 0.14% from the previous trading day, and the price ratio of the overseas market was 88.72, up 0.86% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.6 Fundamentals - On August 11, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 40,398 kilograms, up 4.49% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 317,646 kilograms, up 37.79% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 13,790 kilograms, and the delivery volume of silver was 12,000 kilograms [7]. 3.7 Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Fed Governor Bowman's dovish signal on the interest rate cut rhythm this year, combined with the Fed Chair selection led by the Trump administration, is expected to bind the Fed's monetary policy with the Trump administration's economic policy. The market is expected to actively trade the start of the US easing cycle. The short-term trading logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 770 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [8][9]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The trading logic of silver is generally the same as that of gold, with the future easing expectation as the main line on the macro level, and its pricing weight is generally higher than the supply and demand fundamentals of silver. The market continues to trade the expectation of the Fed's monetary policy shift, which catalyzes the silver price in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 9,050 yuan/kilogram and 9,450 yuan/kilogram [9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9]. - Options: On hold [9].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-12 买卖双方拉锯 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-08-11，沪铜主力合约开于 78500元/吨，收于 79020元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.68%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78750元/吨，收于 78810 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.27%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日国内电解铜现货市场呈现结构性分化。SMM1#电解铜报价79,020-79,280元/吨，当月合约升水 70-230元/吨，均价150元/吨，较前日上涨30元。沪铜主力早盘自78,800元/吨震荡上行至79,100元/吨，Contango结构 维持在C40-C20元/吨。市场呈现三大特征：一是品牌价差显著扩大，祥光等主流平水铜升水130-150元/吨成交有限， 而优质品牌金川、贵溪升水230-300元/吨维持高位；二是区域分化延续，常州地区升水40-60元/吨；三是供需矛盾 突出，贸易商惜售与下游压价并存。尽管采购情绪指数降至3.16，但流通性较好的货源仍保持挺价，预计短期内现 货升水下行空间有限。 重要资讯汇总： 美联储人事变动方面，特朗普团队扩大美联储主席 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral, with attention on the cost side of crude oil and macro - sentiment changes [4] 2) Core Viewpoints - **Cost - end**: Attention should be paid to the US - Russia leaders' meeting on August 15th, Trump's stance on sanctions against Russia, and the attitude towards extending tariffs on China on August 12th. In the medium - term, as global refineries reach the peak of annual operating rates, the demand for crude oil will experience a shift between strength and weakness. With new supplies from Latin America and the North Sea entering the market, the oil market will decline in the second half of the year, unless the US significantly increases sanctions on Russia [1] - **PX**: The PXN was $261/ton (a month - on - month change of - $8.50/ton). China's PX load will gradually recover, and with the commissioning of MX, the supply is abundant. The PX supply is expected to increase, but the increase is limited. The PX balance sheet has shifted from destocking to a loose balance, but PX is still in a low - inventory state. There is support at the lower end of PXN, but the floating price of PX has recently shown signs of weakness [1] - **TA**: The spot basis of the TA main contract is - 12 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 6 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 171 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 7 yuan/ton), and the processing fee of the main contract on the disk is 372 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 2 yuan/ton). Due to the concentrated raw material replenishment by terminal weaving, the inventory pressure of filament has been significantly reduced, and the polyester load remains strong in the short term. However, major suppliers are actively selling, which suppresses prices. PTA is expected to continue a slight inventory build - up in August, and the circulating supply is abundant with the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts [2] - **Demand**: The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.7%). Driven by the anti - involution sentiment in late July, terminal weaving concentrated on raw material replenishment, and the weaving and texturing loads rebounded. But the demand has not improved substantially, and it is just a transfer of inventory. The industry is still facing poor orders and inventory build - up. The weaving load decreased again this week, waiting for the improvement of seasonal peak - season orders, which may start gradually in late August. The polyester load remains strong in the short term, with a slight increase this week. For different products, the pressure on cotton - type short - fiber factories is acceptable, while the pressure on hollow and low - melting - point products is relatively large, with a slight reduction in production. After the phased destocking of filament inventory, the short - term production reduction pressure is relieved, and the load may even be increased. For bottle chips, the maintenance plans of several major manufacturers have been gradually implemented, and the load is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a possible increase in late August or September [2] - **PF**: The spot production profit is 78 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 36 yuan/ton). Due to the high inventory of yarn mills and limited improvement in downstream orders, market confidence is still lacking, and the processing margin remains in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. The demand for PF has improved slightly but is still limited, and the near - month 09 contract is suppressed by the logic of forced cancellation of warehouse receipts [3] - **PR**: The spot processing fee for bottle chips is 407 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 25 yuan/ton). It is reported that the main polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to maintain production reduction or shutdown in August, with no plans to increase or restart production for the time being. The bottle - chip load is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the spot processing fee for bottle chips is expected to recover as the production reduction and shutdown are extended [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rates, and filament profits [51][53][62] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type short - fiber load, pure - polyester yarn operating rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][79][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle chips - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [87][90][94]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-12 淡季铝价震荡持续 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20630元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-50元/吨， 较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价20520元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-160元/吨；佛山 A00铝价录20620元/吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化0元/吨至-55元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-08-11日沪铝主力合约开于20685元/吨，收于20700元/吨，较上一交易日变化30元/吨，最 高价达20735元/吨，最低价达到20625元/吨。全天交易日成交87829手，全天交易日持仓215510手。 库存方面，截止2025-08-11，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存58.7万吨，较上一期变化2.3吨，仓单库存48332 吨，较上一交易日变化4733吨，LME铝库存475850吨，较上一交易日变化5275吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-08-11SMM氧化铝山西价格录得3240元/吨，山东价格录得3220元/吨，河南价格录得 3240元/吨，广西价格录得3315 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-12 昨日郑棉期价震荡收涨。国际方面，受到美国"对等关税"正式落地以及美棉周度签约表现疲弱的影响，上周ICE美 棉价格重心下移。目前来看今年供应端天气的叙事性不足，25/26年度全球棉市或仍将处于供应偏松格局。美棉实 播面积高于预期，旱情较此前明显改善，新年度出口签约仍疲软，预计美棉平衡表也难有改善，国际棉价缺乏明 显驱动，暂难突破震荡区间，预计跟随宏观市场情绪波动为主。国内方面，7月棉花商业库存去库仍较快，三季度 进口量预计维持低位，而滑准税配额迟迟不发，棉价短期仍存底部支撑。当前全国新棉长势良好，增产预期较强， 终端需求持续低迷，纺织企业开机率略有下滑，对棉花原料谨慎补库，限制棉价上涨空间，关注旺季订单情况。 中长期看，四季度随着新棉集中上市，将对棉价形成新的压制。而下半年需求前景仍面临较大不确定性，宏观动 荡环境下出口动能或有所减弱。 策略 中性。库存低位叠加纺织旺季即将到来，棉价下方支撑较强。不过考虑到新年度全球棉市供应充足，中长期产业 端尚不具备持续上涨驱动，相关部门也有望在新棉上市前出台相关调控政策，郑棉上方空间亦受到限制。 风险 上下两难，棉价延续震荡 棉花观点 ...

港口延续累库周期，港口供应方面，甲醇海外开工整体开工仍偏高，8月到港压力进一步上升，而下游MTO装置兴 兴于7月底兑现检修1个月。内地方面，煤头甲醇开工最低点已过，但待下旬才回升至高位；甲醇内地工厂库存进 一步下降，总体仍是内地强于港口的格局，但前期高开工的醋酸开工有所见顶回落，甲醛季节性淡季，等待进一 步底部回升，仍关注内地需求韧性的持续情况。 甲醇日报 | 2025-08-12 港口处于累库周期，港口基差偏弱 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤470元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润688元/吨（+13）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线2103元/吨（+13），内蒙北线基差314元/吨（+7），内蒙南线2100元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2368元/吨（+15）， 鲁南基差179元/吨（+9）；河南2250元/吨（-10），河南基差61元/吨（-16）；河北2275元/吨（+0），河北基差146元/ 吨（-6）。隆众内地工厂库存293688吨（-30832），西北工厂库存185500吨（-30500）；隆众内地工厂待发订单240800 吨（+10075），西北工厂待发订单1228 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for asphalt is oscillating weakly, while there are no ratings for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The demand for asphalt is weak, and the spot price has declined slightly [1]. Recently, the crude oil price has started to oscillate and decline, weakening the cost - side support for asphalt, which has a negative impact on the sentiment of the futures and spot markets. The supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak, with inventory at a low level and no significant signs of inventory accumulation. The short - term market surplus pressure is limited, but the market sentiment is mediocre. Without the influence of cost - side factors, the fundamental driving force for asphalt is limited. If the oil price continues to fall, the asphalt market price will also weaken further [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 11th, the closing price of the main BU2510 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 3,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 221,001 lots, a decrease of 611 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 162,843 lots, an increase of 5,523 lots compared to the previous day [2]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,530 - 3,970 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,540 - 3,630 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,650 - 3,800 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in the Northwest, Shandong, and South China markets decreased yesterday, while the price in the North China market increased slightly, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Pure benzene port inventory has decreased again due to a slowdown in Chinese arrivals and upcoming Korean aromatics maintenance in August - September, with limited subsequent inventory accumulation but still existing inventory pressure. For styrene, port inventory has entered a seasonal decline cycle, but downstream demand improvement is limited [3] Summary by Directory 1. Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads of Pure Benzene and EB - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 115 yuan/ton (- 26), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 0 yuan/ton (+ 5). Near - month BZ paper cargo - distal BZ2603 spread and BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period spread are recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 55 yuan/ton (- 5), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage when high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 3), FOB Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 4), and the US - Korea spread is 83.8 dollars/ton (+ 4) [1] - Styrene: Non - integrated production profit is - 306 yuan/ton (+ 8), expected to gradually compress, and the EB - BZ spread is recommended to be shorted when high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Port inventory is 14.60 tons (- 1.70), and the operating rate is not provided in the given text [1] - Styrene: East China port inventory is 148,800 tons (- 10,200), East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+ 3,000), and the operating rate is 77.7% (- 1.2) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: Production profit is 218 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 43.67% (- 10.58) - PS: Production profit is - 52 yuan/ton (- 30), and the operating rate is 55.00% (+ 1.70) - ABS: Production profit is 100 yuan/ton (- 23), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+ 5.20) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: Production profit is - 1715 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 88.41% (- 1.79) - Phenol - acetone: Production profit is - 672 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 77.00% (+ 4.00) - Aniline: Production profit is 101 yuan/ton (+ 261), and the operating rate is 73.46% (- 0.48) - Adipic acid: Production profit is - 1504 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the operating rate is 54.40% (- 10.40) [1]