Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, and the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to boost market sentiment and economic expectations. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%. The China-US economic and trade team has reached a consensus on three aspects, and China has officially postponed tariffs. However, economic data in October showed a slowdown, and follow-up economic conditions need to be monitored [1]. - There are differences in the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. Some Fed officials are cautious about a rate cut, while others support it. The US government shutdown has ended, but it has caused a loss of about $11 billion in the fourth - quarter GDP. The US manufacturing index has declined, and employment data has been affected by the shutdown [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on the certainty of non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is affected by downstream demand, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by the global easing expectation, the energy supply is moderately loose, and the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and agricultural products' procurement plans are worthy of attention. After the short - term adjustment of precious metals, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China: The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to boost the economy, with an estimated average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the period. The China - US economic and trade team has reached a consensus, and tariffs have been postponed. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a decline of 0.8 from the previous month. Exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and investment, consumption, and industrial growth slowed down. The central bank kept the LPR unchanged for six consecutive months [1]. - US: There are differences among Fed officials on a December rate cut. The government shutdown ended, causing a 1.5 - percentage - point reduction in the fourth - quarter GDP and a loss of about $11 billion. The manufacturing index declined to 48.7%, and the 9 - month non - farm employment increased by 119,000, the largest increase since April. The 10 - month employment report will be merged with the 11 - month report. Trump may announce the next Fed chairman before Christmas. There have been some trade agreements and policy adjustments [2]. Commodity Analysis - Black: Affected by downstream demand expectations, focus on the "anti - involution" situation [3]. - Non - ferrous: Long - term supply constraints remain, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation [3]. - Energy: OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the US API crude oil inventory increased by 4.448 million barrels last week, with moderately loose supply in the medium term [3]. - Chemical: The "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea, PTA and other varieties is worthy of attention [3]. - Agricultural: Pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations after the China - US negotiation [3]. - Precious: After the short - term adjustment risk is cleared, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy precious metals and non - ferrous metals on dips [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday. Recent high - frequency palm oil export data shows that the exports of major palm oil producing countries have slowed down. The market expects the contradiction in the supply - demand pattern to intensify further, and palm oil is under pressure [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,646.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan or 2.33% compared to the previous period; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,224.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 132.00 yuan or 1.58%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,779.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.00 yuan or 0.35% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110.00 yuan or 1.25%, and the spot basis was P01 + 24.00, an increase of 96.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,440.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100.00 yuan/ton or 1.17%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 216.00, an increase of 32.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,130.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.30%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 351.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Palm Oil Exports - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 828,680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month. According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 20 were 831,005 tons, a 20.5% decrease from the same period last month [2] Soybean Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 505 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (December shipment) was 500 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was 490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Soybean Premium Quotes - The premium for Mexican Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; the premium for US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was 226 cents/bushel, an increase of 1 cent/bushel; the premium for Brazilian port soybeans (December shipment) was 200 cents/bushel, a decrease of 10 cents/bushel [2] Argentine Soybean Oil Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) was 1,181 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1,176 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Rapeseed Oil C&F Quotes - The C&F quote for Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F quote for Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1,080 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] Canadian Rapeseed C&F Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was 531 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 540 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars/ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is still relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and increasing oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by the rise in US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The port and production - area prices are rising due to traders' price - increasing acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising due to farmers' wheat - planting and concerns about corn quality. Feed enterprises are hesitant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase. The overall supply is slightly abundant, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3017 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.17%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2412 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.29%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3040 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu's was 2970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged; Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of last Friday, the soybean sowing in Mato Grosso was 96.36% complete, up 10.68% from the previous week. Brazil's soybean exports in November are expected to reach 471 tons, up from the previous forecast of 426 tons [1] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory is still high, and downstream feed enterprises mainly replenish inventories on a rolling basis. The price was supported by US soybean prices and import costs last week [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2168 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2473 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: Brazil's wheat exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 29 tons, a 202% increase from the same period last year. The estimated wheat exports from January to November are 177 tons, lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn from the Northeast and North China is on the market. The price is rising due to traders' acquisitions. In North China, supply is tight and prices are rising due to farmers' behavior [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises are hesitant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are raising prices to purchase [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For pure benzene, low US gasoline inventory supports Asian aromatics through gasoline blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been significantly repaired, potentially easing long - term Chinese arrival pressure, but short - term arrival pressure still exists, with rising port inventory and a weak basis. Domestic production has not further increased after an earlier rise, and downstream开工 remains low. Phenol开工 has increased significantly, while aniline and adipic acid开工 have declined, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [3]. - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boost and low domestic开工, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Downstream开工 remains low, with EPS开工 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工 slightly rising from a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene consecutive first - to - third contract spread [1][15]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and EB consecutive first - to - third contract spread [20]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Production profit and spread figures for pure benzene and styrene include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various international price spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as their import profits [22][25][34]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, the inventory figure is the East China port inventory, and the operating rate figure is the pure benzene operating rate. For styrene, inventory figures include East China port inventory, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory, and the operating rate figure is the styrene operating rate [40][42][45]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of styrene include EPS, PS, and ABS. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [51][53][54]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of pure benzene include caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other related products. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [60][63][72]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [4]. - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port price of methanol remains weak, with port inventory falling from its high for the first time and flowing back to the inland. The key lies in whether the inland can absorb the impact of the port's backflow. The fundamentals are still weak, and the key is when the winter maintenance in Iran will be implemented [3]. - The inventory of inland factories has slightly decreased. The MTO of Yangmei is under maintenance, and Luxi MTO is operating at a low load. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong [4]. - In the traditional downstream, the acetic acid and formaldehyde industries are operating at low loads, while only the MTBE industry has a relatively high operating rate. The methanol price is also affected by the decline in the coking coal futures price [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report shows multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [8][12][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures are presented for Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China) [27][28][36] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [37][38][40] IV. Regional Price Differences - Multiple regional price differences are shown, such as the price differences between Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [42][49][52] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Information about the production profits of traditional downstream industries is provided, including the production profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][60][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations. Affected by the stock market, weak US employment, divergent expectations of Fed rate cuts, and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a 2.10% year - on - year decrease [10]. - The social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan (+0.15%) month - on - month increase; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a 0.20% (-2.38%) decrease; the manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a 0.80% (-1.61%) decrease [11]. - The US dollar index is 100.22, with a 0.09 (+0.09%) increase; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1179, with a 0.007 (+0.10%) increase; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.46, with a 0.03 (-1.82%) decrease; DR007 is 1.49, with a 0.03 (-1.81%) decrease; R007 is 1.51, with a 0.02 (-1.24%) decrease; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a 0.00 (+0.20%) increase; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a 0.00 (+0.20%) increase [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.46 yuan, 105.94 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 115.87 yuan respectively, with price changes of 0.00%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and - 0.21% respectively [4]. - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.004 yuan, 0.000 yuan, - 0.030 yuan, and 0.337 yuan respectively [4]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - From January to October 2025, the general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and the general public budget expenditure increased by 2% year - on - year [3]. - At the end of October, social financing and credit maintained low - level expansion, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [3]. - On November 20, 2025, the central bank conducted a 300 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [3]. - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.364%, 1.460%, 1.546%, and 1.518% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [3]. 4. Spread Overview - There are various spread data in the report, including the inter - period spread trends of various treasury bond futures, and the term spreads between spot bonds and cross - variety spreads of futures [32][36][37]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [39][41]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate [59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - There are data on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, as well as the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate [66]. Strategy - Unilateral: With the decline of the repurchase rate and the fluctuation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2512 contract is neutral [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [5]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean market has a mixed situation with limited downside in prices due to farmers' reluctance to sell and support from the grain depot's purchase price, but the upward trend is restricted by weak downstream demand [1][2] - The peanut market is currently characterized by low - level fluctuations. The supply has not been fully released, and the demand is generally weak, but the start of procurement by Qingdao Yihai Kerry provides some support [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soy - one 2601 contract yesterday was 4,107.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 38.00 yuan/ton or - 0.92% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 - 7, a change of + 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of first - class protein soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] - Market situation: Northeast new - season soybean prices are firm, but the sales of grain trading enterprises are average. The price is expected to remain stable after the repayment of grain [1] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract yesterday was 7,788.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton or - 0.08% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7,980.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 - 788.00, a change of + 6.00 or - 0.76% from the previous day. The national average price of general peanut kernels decreased by 0.01 yuan/jin. Some oil mills lowered their purchase prices, and the arrival volume was average [3] - Market situation: The effective supply of peanuts in the producing areas has not been fully released, with price differentiation in Henan and low selling enthusiasm in the Northeast. The demand is weak overall, but Qingdao Yihai Kerry's procurement provides some support [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the cost - side support is strong due to high raw material prices. With increasing arrivals in China and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen. For BR, the upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market To - date News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,320 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [2] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,735 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information - Import: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3] - Export: In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire export volume reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [3] - Global Forecast: ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [3] - Thailand Export: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [4] - Automobile Sales: In October 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 700 yuan/ton (- 40), the NR basis was 727 yuan/ton (+25); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 100), the mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 150), the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,650 yuan/ton (- 150) [5][6] - Raw Materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.89 Thai baht/kg (+0.84), Thai glue was 57 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [7] -开工率: The full - steel tire operating rate was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (- 10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [8] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 120 yuan/ton (+185), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,080 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of high - cis butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,512 yuan/ton (- 2) [9] -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (- 90), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Given the high raw material prices, the cost - side support is strong. With increasing arrivals and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The unilateral trend is unclear. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen [12] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. Some plants have restarted or postponed maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance. The upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12]

Report Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put Core View - Although high copper prices significantly suppress consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and slightly bullish pattern [8] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 20, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 86,540 yuan/ton and closed at 86,130 yuan/ton, a 0.06% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 86,380 yuan/ton and closed at 85,920 yuan/ton, a 0.53% drop from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot price was 86,180 - 86,690 yuan/ton on November 20, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The import loss widened to around 800 yuan/ton. Market sentiment improved, and copper price drops spurred downstream restocking. Regional price differences may continue [2] - **Important Information**: US September non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than double the expected level, but July and August figures were revised down by 33,000. The September unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. US initial jobless claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000 last week, while continuing claims reached a 4 - year high. Trump may delay semiconductor tariff implementation and plans to launch an AI development plan [3] Supply - Side Analysis - **Mine End**: Chile, the world's largest copper producer, faces production constraints. This year's production is expected to increase by only 0.1% to 5.51 million tons, with a 2.5% growth to 5.6 million tons in 2026. Magna Mining's Levack mine has significant nickel, copper, and precious metal resources, with plans for restart and development in 2026 [4] - **Smelting and Imports**: In October 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased by 13.62% month - on - month and 16.32% year - on - year. Reasons include RMB exchange - rate fluctuations, lower domestic spot premiums, and closed import windows. Domestic social inventories have been rising since late September, and domestic production growth has compensated for the import shortfall [5] Demand - Side Analysis - **Consumption**: China aims to add 100 GW of new energy storage capacity from 2025 - 2027, reaching 180 GW by 2027. The US is expected to add 19 GW of storage power and 52.5 GWh of capacity in 2025. Energy storage expansion will increase demand for copper, with China's copper demand in the electric vehicle and energy - transition sectors expected to grow by 18% to 3 million tons in 2025 [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 17,375 tons to 157,925 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 3,369 tons to 54,983 tons. On November 20, domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 194,500 tons, a 700 - ton change from the previous week [7] Strategy - **Copper**: Buy on dips between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton for hedging, and sell - hedge enterprises can operate between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Arbitrage**: Suspend operations - **Options**: Short put

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-21 下游维持刚需采购 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-20，LME铅现货升水为-27.39美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17125 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化50元/ 吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17125元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至17125元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-20，沪铅主力合约开于17300元/吨，收于17220元/吨，较前一交易日变化-30元/吨，全天交易日 成交37231手，较前一交易日变化-8977手，全天交易日持仓60285手，手较前一交易日变化-3610手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17320元/吨，最低点达到17195元/吨 ...