流动性日报 | 2025-10-16 2025-10-15，股指板块成交11275.59亿元，较上一交易日变动+16.88%；持仓金额14028.33亿元，较上一交易日变动 -0.30%；成交持仓比为78.80%。 国债板块成交5007.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+24.47%；持仓金额8090.90亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.00%；成交 持仓比为62.94%。 基本金属板块成交4911.76亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.52%；持仓金额5222.40亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.18%；成 交持仓比为87.10%。 市场流动性概况 贵金属板块成交13830.07亿元，较上一交易日变动+32.59%；持仓金额5297.51亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.88%；成 交持仓比为365.88%。 能源化工板块成交4076.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-13.90%；持仓金额4403.08亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.09%； 成交持仓比为82.44%。 农产品板块成交3337.85亿元，较上一交易日变动+2.99%；持仓金额5471.11亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.97%；成交 持仓比为59.63%。 黑色建材板块成交2 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-10-16 国内强预期弱现实割裂加剧。国内8月经济压力边际增加，一是中国8月经济数据有所转弱，显现"工业缓、投资弱、 消费淡"等特征；另一方面是外部关税压力有所增加，美国以及墨西哥、印度等国家纷纷加征关税。为了应对边际 增加的外部压力，国内近期频提稳增长政策。国家发改委表示，经济运行仍存挑战，将适时加力实施宏观政策， 新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元。关注政策预期，以及当下旺季不旺预期的修正可能。中国9月以美元计价出 口同比增长8.3%，进口同比增7.4%，均超预期。中国9月末M2同比增8.4%，M1同比增7.2%，M1-M2剪刀差收窄至 -1.2%，显示出实体活性改善与需求回暖；中国9月新增社融3.53万亿元，增速下降至8.7%，要受政府债融资放缓影 响；9月人民币贷款同比增长6.6%，居民短贷疲软成主要拖累。中国9月CPI同比下降0.3%，主要是翘尾影响所致， 降幅较上月收窄0.1个百分点，核心CPI近19个月首次回到1%；低基数叠加反内卷政策发力，中国9月PPI同比降幅 收窄至2.3%，高于市场预期。近期经济形势专家和企业家座谈会强调持续用力扩大内需、不断形成扩内需的新增 ...

化工日报 | 2025-10-16 库存回升，EG偏弱运行 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4057元/吨（较前一交易日变动-4元/吨，幅度-0.10%），EG华东市场现货价4122 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-28元/吨，幅度-0.67%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）65元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。早 间受已有船舶加征港务费消息影响，乙二醇盘面小幅抬升，随后市场维持窄幅震荡。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-67美元/吨（环比-6美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-474元/吨（环比 -43元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为54.1万吨（环比+3.4万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为44.3万吨（环比+4.3万吨）。据CCF数据，10.9~10.12主港实际到货总数8.7万吨，港 口库存继续累库；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.2万吨，中性，副港计划到港量2.5万吨，库存或延续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, suggesting short - term observation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The PG futures market shows signs of stabilization after continuous declines, but the rebound is limited. The spot prices in domestic regions generally continued to fall. The LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, with abundant overseas supply and weak downstream demand elasticity. Market pressure persists, but potential support may come from improved chemical profits and raw material switching in cracking units. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff threats, short - term caution is advised [1] Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices on October 15 - Shandong market: 4310 - 4370 yuan/ton [1] - Northeast market: 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton [1] - North China market: 4300 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] - East China market: 4200 - 4360 yuan/ton [1] - Yangtze River market: 4670 - 4860 yuan/ton [1] - Northwest market: 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [1] - South China market: 4498 - 4550 yuan/ton [1] November 2025 First - half Import Prices - East China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 537 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4197 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 542 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4236 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] - South China frozen cargo arrival price: Propane at 531 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4150 yuan/ton (up 53 yuan/ton); Butane at 536 dollars/ton (up 32 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4189 yuan/ton (up 248 yuan/ton) [1] Market Conditions - The East China civil LPG market's mainstream transaction price decreased compared to the previous working day, with weak transactions and some price concessions. The mainstream transaction price of ether - post carbon four remained stable, with general demand and a cautious wait - and - see attitude [1] - The overall LPG supply - demand pattern is loose, with high exports from the Middle East and North America and potential for further growth. Downstream demand elasticity is weaker than supply due to profit factors [1] - If prices continue to fall, it may drive chemical profit repair and increased buying, forming new support. The low LPG - to - naphtha price difference may lead to raw material switching in cracking units, providing some support to the LPG market [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a significant impact on US biodiesel production. The adjustment of the tax credit policy in 2025 has significantly reduced the import volume of Chinese UCO. From January to July this year, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Due to the US bonded area policy, some imports of Chinese UCO will continue. The reduction in US biomass diesel production will increase US petroleum diesel demand by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43 cents to $58.27 per barrel, a decline of 0.73%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery in London fell 48 cents to $61.91 per barrel, a decline of 0.77%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.70% at 440 yuan per barrel [1] - As of the week ending October 13, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE was 17.812 million barrels, an increase of 1.478 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventories increased by 623,000 barrels to 8.73 million barrels, medium distillate inventories increased by 640,000 barrels to 2.947 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventories increased by 215,000 barrels to 6.135 million barrels [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that global energy demand is growing, Russia has the potential to further increase oil production, but currently has no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and trade wars pose risks to energy supply [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves will impose targeted sanctions on two Russian oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft [1] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak told the Saudi energy minister that joint actions within the framework of OPEC+ are in the long - term national interests of both countries and will strongly promote the economic development of both countries [1] Investment Logic - Trump's threat to ban imports of Chinese UCO is unlikely to have a major impact on US biodiesel production. The 2025 tax credit policy adjustment has reduced Chinese UCO imports. From January to July, US imports of Chinese UCO decreased by 43% year - on - year. Some imports will continue due to the bonded area policy. US petroleum diesel demand will increase by 130,000 barrels per day in 2025 and about 80,000 barrels per day in 2026 [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the impact of negative factors on the decline of aluminum prices is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Important Data Aluminum Spot - On October 15, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was 30 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 20,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 20 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 70 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On October 15, 2025, the SHFE aluminum main contract opened at 20,830 yuan/ton, closed at 20,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,940 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,800 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 82,102 lots, and the position was 148,539 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 71,394 tons, a change of 8,218 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 498,975 tons, a change of - 4,975 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On October 15, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,900 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,920 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,100 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,105 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On October 15, 2025, the alumina main contract opened at 2,800 yuan/ton, closed at 2,797 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.36%. The highest price was 2,818 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,782 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 241,190 lots, and the position was 361,466 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 15, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,600 yuan/ton, a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost - Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the context of strong fundamentals and strong macro - expectations, the decline of aluminum prices due to negative factors is limited. The decrease in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum stimulates downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and the spot discount narrows. The increase in tariffs on China has little impact on the supply - demand fundamentals of aluminum. Overseas macro factors are still positive, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering, with the proportion of molten aluminum reaching a new high [6]. Alumina - The spot market for alumina at home and abroad has not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side negotiations. The fundamentals of alumina show no signs of improvement, with increasing social inventory and high warrant pressure. However, as the Guinea referendum approaches, the risk of uncertainty increases, and the current alumina price is undervalued [8]. 3. Strategy Unilateral - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9]. Arbitrage - SHFE aluminum positive spread [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic financial data shows overall stability in volume, but the structure needs optimization [3]. - There is still significant uncertainty in trade frictions. However, news of technological breakthroughs in domestic technology sub - sectors drove the market to rebound, but under the background of reduced overall trading volume, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices may continue the pattern of oscillating digestion in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Financial Aggregate Data**: Domestically, at the end of September, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The M1 - M2 spread hit a new low for the year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan year - on - year. Regarding Sino - US relations, the US stated that whether to impose a 100% tariff on China depends on China's actions, and China urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China also opposed the EU's attempt to force Chinese enterprises to transfer technology [1]. - **Index Rebound**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices rebounded. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to close at 3912.21 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. Most sector indices rose, with the power equipment, automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries leading the gains, while only the steel and petroleum and petrochemical industries closed down. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq rising 0.66% to 22670.08 points [1]. - **Technological Breakthroughs**: At the 2025 Bay Area Semiconductor Industry Ecology Expo, China's self - developed 90GHz real - time oscilloscope was officially released, and two domestic electronic engineering EDA design software with independent intellectual property rights were launched for the first time [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, on the day of the delivery of the current - month contract this Friday, the basis of IC and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined simultaneously [2]. Strategy - Based on domestic financial data, the overall volume remains stable, but the structure needs optimization. Given the uncertainty of trade frictions and the reduced trading volume, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices may continue to oscillate in the short term [3]. Charts - **Macro - economic Charts**: Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][9][11]. - **Spot Market Tracking Charts**: Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on October 15, 2025. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%, etc. There are also charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances [13][14]. - **Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts**: - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [15]. - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures. The basis of IC and IM increased on the day [39]. - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, with various changes in spreads [43][45]. - There are also multiple charts showing the open interest, open interest ratio, and basis trends of different stock index futures contracts [6][16][19]

油脂日报 | 2025-10-16 马棕出口数据亮眼，给油脂一定支撑 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约9322.00元/吨，环比变化-8元，幅度-0.09%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8252.00元 /吨，环比变化+12.00元，幅度+0.15%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9932.00元/吨，环比变化-27.00元，幅度-0.27%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9210.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.65%，现货基差P01+-112.00，环比变化 -52.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8430.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元/吨，幅度-0.12%，现货基差Y01+178.00， 环比变化-22.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10240.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.19%，现货基差 OI01+308.00，环比变化+7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：巴西地理与统计研究所（IBGE）10月月报显示，预计今年巴西大豆总种植面积为4770万公顷， 较上个月预计的4767万公顷增加0.1%，较去年的4604万公顷增加3.6%；预计产量为1.65866 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-16 市场分析 2025-10-15，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73000元/吨，收于72720元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.60%。当日 成交量为225238手，持仓量为188523手，前一交易日持仓量192931手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-20元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单33076手，较上个交易日变化-2104手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72400-73600元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报价 70150-71350元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格818美元/吨，较前一日变化0美元/吨。据SMM数据， 下游材料厂观望情绪渐浓，市场整体成交活跃度一般。供应方面，锂辉石端和盐湖端均有新产线投产，预计10月 碳酸锂总产量仍具备增长潜力。需求方面，动力市场新能源汽车商用乘用同时快速增长；储能市场供需两旺。整 体来看，10月供应虽稳步增长，形成阶段性供应偏紧态势。 9月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为151.2GWh，环比增长8.3%，同比增长35.4%。1-9月，我国动力和其他电池 累计产 ...