新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 市场分析 2025-12-02，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9120元/吨，最后收于8975元/吨，较前一日结算变 化（-200）元/吨，变化（-2.18）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓187342手，2025-12-02仓单总数为6784手，较前 一日变化188手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9500-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13100-13300（0）元/吨。有机硅DMC市场持稳，DMC报价在13100-13300 元/吨，在单体厂联合减产挺价，预售充足，自身库存压力较小的支撑下，下游对高价货源的接受程度有所提高， 市场看涨信心增强，预计短期内市场稳中偏强运行。据SMM统计，11月国内有机硅DMC产量环比10月增加3.82%， 同比下降1.33%。 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-12-03 上游价格分化 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）12月2日，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）发布报告称，全球经济增长表现好于预期，原因是人工智 能（AI）投资热潮在一定程度上抵消了美国加征关税造成的冲击。该组织因此上调了部分主要经济体的增长预期。 经合组织(OECD)预估2025年全球经济增长3.2%(持平于前预估)，2026年增长2.9%(持平于前预估)、2027年增长 3.1%(最新预估)。OECD预估2025年中国经济增长5%，此前预估为4.9%。 服务行业：1）国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁在《党建》杂志发布《深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神以高质量 发展新成效谱写中国式现代化新篇章》署名文章。文章写道，在发展中保障和改善民生，提高人民生活品质。加 大保障和改善民生力度，扎实推进全体人民共同富裕。深入实施就业优先战略，完善收入分配制度，提高居民收 入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 上游：1）能源：液化天然气、原油价格震荡回落。2）农业：鸡蛋、棕榈油价格持续回升。3）化工：尿素价格上 行，聚乙烯价格小幅回落 ...

供需与逻辑：供应端，成材产量小幅提升；库存端，成材库存下降节奏略有放缓，板材库存仍处高位状态。需求 端，当前成材消费表现平稳，但持续性存疑，后续板材工业属性支撑下，消费预期优于成材。短期基本面矛盾尚 不突出，宏观政策偏多氛围持续提振市场预期，投机情绪有所升温，后续需重点关注宏观政策落地力度、天气变 化对施工的影响、终端需求释放节奏及冬储行情启动情况。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-03 宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行 钢材：宏观预期继续发力，钢价区间震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3133元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3325元/吨。现货方面，今日钢材现货成交整体一般偏 弱，环比昨日转弱明显，盘面持稳，无期现承接，终端对涨价后现货接受意愿较弱，部分地区有对昨日的补涨。 今日全国建材成交9.82万吨。 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：宏观氛围回暖，矿价持续震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅上涨，最终铁矿石2601合约收盘800.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、 成交氛围略显平淡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The macro - expectation continues to exert influence, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. Glass and soda ash markets are characterized by strong wait - and - see sentiment and fluctuate. The supply - demand contradictions in glass and soda ash still exist, with high inventory pressure in glass and high - level inventory in soda ash. The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys are expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and cost [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Glass futures declined yesterday, and the spot market's trading center moved down. Soda ash futures rose, supported by rising costs. The downstream of both mainly purchases on a rigid - demand basis [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For glass, although the increase in cold - repair of production lines has slightly improved demand, the supply contraction is insufficient, and high - inventory pressure remains. For soda ash, the supply - demand contradiction has been slightly alleviated, but the inventory is still high, and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass may challenge the demand for heavy soda ash [1] - **Strategy**: Both glass and soda ash are expected to fluctuate, with no strategies for inter - period or inter - variety trading [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis**: Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate, and the spot market was stable. The 6517 silicon manganese price in the northern market was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5520 - 5570 yuan/ton. Silicon iron futures fluctuated with the black - metal sector, and the spot market was weakly stable. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade silicon iron was 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Silicon manganese enterprises are in continuous losses, with production and operating rates declining, but the inventory is at a record high. The slight increase in port manganese ore inventory provides cost support. Silicon iron maintains high production and inventory, with weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased due to reduced operating rates, high inventory still suppresses prices [3] - **Strategy**: Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to fluctuate [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The report presents the trading data of various index options on December 1, 2025, including option volume, PCR, and VIX, and their corresponding changes compared to the previous period [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Volume - On December 1, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 490,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange CSI 300 ETF options was 662,500 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange CSI 500 ETF options was 1,001,200 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 106,000 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,370,500 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 28,300 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 73,800 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 169,000 contracts [1] Option PCR - The trading volume PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.71, with a month - on - month change of - 0.21; the open interest PCR was reported at 1.05, with a month - on - month change of + 0.05. Similar data was presented for other types of options, showing different PCR values and their month - on - month changes [2] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 14.07%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.29%. Other types of options also had their respective VIX values and month - on - month changes, such as the VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange CSI 300 ETF options being 15.34% with a - 0.02% change [3]

化工日报 | 2025-12-02 成本端反弹，PTA价格上涨 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，Brent油价维持60~65美元/桶运行，欧佩克+同意明年全集团保持产量稳定，八个主要产油国重申明年Q1 暂停增产，部分缓解油价压力，油价有所反弹。整体基本面对油价的驱动偏空。但制裁导致的市场分化依然存在， 需要考虑地缘与宏观事件对情绪面的扰动。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN264美元/吨(环比变动+4.00美元/吨）。依靠目前宽松的MX供应环境，即使部分工厂重 整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持在高位，海外PX中高位持稳。聚酯开工支撑下PXN有支撑，但PX负荷高 位以及个别装置扩能下PXN反弹空间也受限，关注调油情况。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -33元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+5元/吨），PTA现货加工费175元/吨（环比变动+5元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费263元/吨（环比变动+10元/吨），近期PTA检修集中，且印度BIS取消提振PTA出口需求，聚酯 负荷支撑下，PTA供需好转，基差反弹。中长期集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善。 需求方面，聚酯开工率91.5%（环比+0.2%）， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-02 铜价高位震荡 下游采购意愿受限 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-01，沪铜主力合约开于 87630元/吨，收于 89280元/吨，较前一交易日收盘2.12%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 89,410元/吨，收于 89,380 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.62%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价维持贴水10元至升水220元/吨，均价升水105元/吨，较前日下滑5元。SMM 1#铜价区间为88890至89660元/吨。早间沪铜2512合约冲高至89500元后回落，上午基本于89000元上方整理。跨月 价差维持在Contango结构，进口亏损扩大至超1200元。目前下游对89000元以上价位接受度偏低，采购情绪减弱。 月初高价下持货商出货意愿亦不高，平水铜报价平水至升水60元/吨，部分成交；少量贴水20元货源迅速成交后， 市场还盘压力显现。好铜货源依旧偏紧，金豚大板安徽厂提价报至升水180元以上，短期价格预计坚挺。预计今日 现货成交情绪将受盘面走势影响，若铜价持续高于89000元，新订单及下游采购意愿或继续受限。 重要资讯汇总： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For nickel trading, the recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations [1][3]. - Given low demand and high inventory, stainless steel is also expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy for stainless steel trading is neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2601 opened at 117,080 yuan/ton and closed at 117,850 yuan/ton, a 0.59% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 145,829 (+59,900) lots, and the open interest was 122,891 (-4,444) lots. It showed an oscillating upward trend, staying in the 116,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton range. The 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish medium - term trend. The significant increase in trading volume showed increased divergence between bulls and bears without a clear breakthrough. The enhanced market expectation of the Fed's policy shift and the weakening US dollar index provided support for nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was dominated by a wait - and - see sentiment, with prices remaining stable. An Indonesian mine won the bid for 1.4% nickel ore in the Philippines at 50.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Philippine mines mainly fulfilled previous orders, with good shipping efficiency. Weak nickel - iron prices and受挫 iron - mill profits led to cautious nickel - ore procurement, and some iron mills considered production cuts. In Indonesia, the December (first phase) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.52 - 0.91 dollars/wet ton, and the domestic trade premium was mainly at +26, with a range of +25 - 26. Overall, domestic trade nickel - ore prices decreased, and the premium also had downward potential [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading of refined nickel was okay, and the spot premiums of various refined - nickel brands were stable with a slight decline. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 4,800 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel - bean premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722 (-587) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 254,760 (-690) tons [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is mainly range - based operations for single - side trading, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On December 1, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,375 yuan/ton and closed at 12,445 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 163,599 (+40,379) lots, and the open interest was 108,469 (-4,171) lots. It rebounded slightly driven by nickel prices but failed to break through the recent oscillation range. The significant increase in trading volume showed intensified multi - empty game without a clear trend breakthrough, and the decrease in open interest indicated that some funds took profits, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [3]. - **Spot**: Low prices attracted some downstream rigid - demand purchases, which were mainly for replenishment. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 12,650 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 350 - 550 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 881.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - The recommended strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and no operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-02 烧碱下游下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4553元/吨（+4）；华东基差-63元/吨（-4）;华南基差-53元/吨（-24）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4500元/吨（-20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+50）；电石利润-50元/吨（+50）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-9.2美元/吨（-4.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2212元/吨（-12）；山东32%液碱基差69元/吨（-51）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（-20）；山东50%液碱报价120 ...