Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The bond market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with all Treasury bond futures closing lower. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and rising global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase; monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a 0.47% increase from the previous month; M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, a 6.25% increase from the previous month; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, a 1.83% increase from the previous month [9]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.28, a - 0.51% change from the previous day; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9647, a 0.10% increase from the previous day. Other indicators such as SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, etc. also showed corresponding changes [9]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On January 22, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.41 yuan, 105.84 yuan, 108.15 yuan, and 112.17 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.02%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.07% respectively [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was 0.018 yuan, 0.019 yuan, - 0.013 yuan, and 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 22, 2026, the central bank conducted 210.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Repo Rates**: The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.413%, 1.497%, 1.590%, and 1.557% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - **Inter - period and Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various spread indicators such as the inter - period spread of Treasury bond futures and the inter - variety spread between spot bonds and futures, including 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [26][29][35] V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TS main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [38][40]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract are shown [46]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TF main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [47]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract are shown [54]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the T main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [55]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract are shown [56]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the yield of Treasury bonds are presented, along with the IRR of the TL main contract and the relationship with the funding rate [61]. - **Basis and Net Basis**: The three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract are shown [67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline in repo rates, Treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in the basis of the 2603 contract [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

化工日报 | 2026-01-23 下游半钢胎开工率继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15850元/吨，较前一日变动+105元/吨；NR主力合约12735元/吨，较前一日变动+120 元/吨；BR主力合约12270元/吨，较前一日变动+355元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15600元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14880元/吨，较前 一日变动+80元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1905美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1825美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格12000元/吨，较前一日变动+300元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11850元/吨，较前一日变动+250元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [6] 2. Core Views - For the soybean meal market, although the current port inventory is high and the overall supply is sufficient, there are concerns about the arrival of soybeans in the first quarter. With the recent general rise in commodities, the soybean meal price has been strong recently. However, the supply pressure brought by the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans in the future is the most significant influencing factor. Attention should be paid to the growth of Brazilian soybeans and the USDA report [2] - For the corn market, the inventories of deep - processing and feed enterprises are gradually increasing and they mainly purchase on demand, but the inventory is still lower than the historical average. With the Spring Festival approaching, there will still be some stocking demand in the future. Attention should be paid to spot purchases and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Soybean Meal - Futures: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2,768 yuan/ton yesterday, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2,250 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.99% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M05 + 412, down 23 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3,070 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of M05 + 302, down 23; in Guangdong, it was 3,090 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of M05 + 322, down 13. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of RM05 + 200, down 2 [1] - Market News: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters expects Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 3.73 million tons and a 238% increase from 1.12 million tons in the same period last year [1] 3.2 Market News and Important Data - Corn - Futures: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2,295 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton or 0.53% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2,569 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 0.71% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 55, down 7 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2,630 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of CS03 + 61, down 18 [3] - Market News: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters estimates that the exports of soybeans, soybean meal, corn, and wheat in January 2026 will be 9.4 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 9.17 million tons [3] 3.3 Strategies - For the soybean meal market, the strategy is to be cautiously bearish [3] - For the corn market, the strategy is neutral [6]

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-23 市场情绪提振，盘面大幅反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6814元/吨（+148），PP主力合约收盘价为6624元/吨（+139），LL华北现货为 6600元/吨（+60），LL华东现货为6680元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6410元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-214元/吨（-88）， LL华东基差为-134元/吨（-118）， PP华东基差为-214元/吨（-139）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.7%（+3.1%），PP开工率为76.0%（+0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为8.4元/吨（-76.9），PP油制生产利润为-471.6元/吨（-76.9），PDH制PP生产利润 为-666.0元/吨（-21.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为125.8元/吨（+30.1），PP进口利润为-407.5元/吨（-3.9），PP出口利润为-52.8美元/吨（+5.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%），PP下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; medium-term bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; medium-term bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The spread between gasoline/diesel and low-sulfur fuel oil has declined. The short-term oil price may be affected by news, and the direction of FU and LU is unclear. The current fuel oil market has a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West, and the widening of the East-West spread may have a potential suppression on the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [1] - The current fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. The low-sulfur fuel oil has limited contradictions and drivers, and the increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria may bring local pressure [1] Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 1.89% at 2,592 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.65% at 3,125 yuan/ton [1] - The Iranian oil supply has not been substantially affected, but the tension has not completely subsided, and the short-term oil price may be repeatedly disturbed by news [1] - The current fundamentals of fuel oil have both long and short factors, with limited overall contradictions. It is dragged down by the sharp decline in the cracking spread in the U.S. Gulf in the short term, but there is room for growth in fuel oil demand in March, which will support the market [1] - The current contradictions and drivers of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited. The increase in shipments from Kuwait and Nigeria may bring local pressure, and the narrowing of the gasoline/diesel premium may weaken the support for low-sulfur fuel oil [1] - The current fuel oil market has a pattern of strong in the East and weak in the West, and the widening of the East-West spread will drive the opening of the arbitrage window, leading to an increase in arbitrage cargo volume and potentially suppressing the Asia-Pacific and domestic markets [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, pay attention to the Iranian situation; medium-term bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral; medium-term bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Figures - Figure 1: Singapore high-sulfur 380 fuel oil spot price, unit: US dollars/ton [3][4] - Figure 2: Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil spot price, unit: US dollars/ton [3][4] - Figure 3: Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, unit: US dollars/ton [3][6] - Figure 4: Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract, unit: US dollars/ton [3][6] - Figure 5: Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, unit: US dollars/ton [3][9] - Figure 6: Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil near-month spread, unit: US dollars/ton [3][9] - Figure 7: Fuel oil FU futures main contract closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][14] - Figure 8: Fuel oil FU futures index closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][14] - Figure 9: Fuel oil FU futures near-month contract closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][17] - Figure 10: Fuel oil FU near-month contract monthly spread, unit: yuan/ton [3][17] - Figure 11: Fuel oil FU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][18] - Figure 12: Fuel oil FU futures total trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][18] - Figure 13: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][30] - Figure 14: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures index closing price, unit: yuan/ton [3][30] - Figure 15: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month contract price, unit: yuan/ton [3][27] - Figure 16: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures near-month spread, unit: yuan/ton [3][27] - Figure 17: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures main contract trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][28] - Figure 18: Low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures total trading volume and open interest, unit: lots [3][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tight supply of nickel ore supports the high - level volatility of nickel and stainless - steel prices. The nickel market is affected by macro - sentiment, supply expectations, and technical factors, while the stainless - steel market is influenced by cost support and weak downstream demand [1][3] - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range, and stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term, with the need to focus on Indonesian policy implementation, downstream demand recovery, and inventory changes [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On January 22, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 143,140 yuan/ton and closed at 142,500 yuan/ton, a 1.15% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 588,698 (- 156,970) lots, and the open interest was 69,610 (- 6,282) lots [1] - The price movement of the Shanghai nickel main contract was driven by three factors: macro - sentiment and external market linkages, the continuous fermentation of the expectation of reduced Indonesian nickel ore quotas, and technical support at the 140,000 yuan/ton mark [1] - The nickel ore market was stable, with prices in a high - level consolidation phase after consecutive increases. There was no new public tender or large - scale transaction information. In Indonesia, the market was waiting for the possible increase of the February domestic trade benchmark price (HPM) [2] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 122,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were mostly stable [2] Strategy - Due to high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile range. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On January 22, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract opened at 12,720 yuan/ton and closed at 14,650 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 389,457 (- 37,459) lots, and the open interest was 163,858 (- 4,171) lots [3] - The stainless - steel main contract showed a trend of rising and then falling, weakening after high - level volatility and slightly stabilizing at the end. The cost side had strong support, but downstream demand was weak, suppressing price increases [3] - The stainless - steel prices in the Wuxi and Foshan markets were 14,550 (+ 250) yuan/ton and 14,450 (+ 250) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 80 - 180 yuan/ton [4] Strategy - In the short term, high inventory, weak spot demand, rising costs, and macro - policies create long - short contradictions. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading, with no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 双硅同步上涨，库存维持高位 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-22，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8770元/吨，最后收于8825元/吨，较前一日结算变化（90） 元/吨，变化（1.03）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓228488手，2026-01-21仓单总数为11955手，较前一日变化 384手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计1月15日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.5万吨，较上周增加0.54%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。本周多晶硅维持减产，对工业硅需求支撑有限， 但短期光伏抢出口显现易拉动工业硅需求。有机硅维持错峰减排政策，持续自律减产，对工业硅需求支撑同样乏 力。铝合金下游需求呈现边际走弱，预 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2026-01-23 成本端支撑偏强，盘面大幅上涨 市场分析 1、1月22日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3214元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨92元/吨，涨幅 2.92%；持仓203357手，环比上升15919手，成交299851手，环比上涨151311手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3406—3500元/吨；山东，3030—3240元/吨；华南，3180—3250元/吨； 华东，3130—3230元/吨。 昨日BU盘面出现大幅上涨，现货端受到带动但表现弱于期货。其中，华北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格出现 上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。虽然终端需求受到大规模降温抑制，但成本端支撑依然偏强。目前来看， 在南美局势升级、美国意图加强控制委内瑞拉资源的背景下，委内瑞拉原油对国内炼厂供应收紧的预期持续兑现， 市场开始关注替代原料的可获得性以及对成本的影响。目前来看，如果原本流向亚洲地区的委内瑞拉原油持续流 向欧美，在库存原料消耗后(预计能够用到3月份），未来国内炼厂需要从中东、加拿大、南美等地寻找替代重质原 料，其中可能包括俄罗斯与伊朗的折价资源，使得成本与产 ...

原油日报 | 2026-01-23 乌克兰再度袭击黑海港口 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.26美元，收于每桶59.36美元，跌幅为2.08%；3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.18美元，收于每桶64.06美元，跌幅为1.81%。SC原油主力合约收跌2.17%，报437元/ 桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 乌克兰无人机于周三晚间袭击了黑海港口，导致四个燃料码头起火，造成两人死亡。当地应急部门称，克拉 斯诺达尔边疆区塔曼市一个设施的火灾于周四上午被扑灭。当局称共部署了208名人员和51件设备应对火灾，其中 包括俄罗斯紧急情况部的部队。塔曼港与克里米亚隔海相望。克里米亚于2014年被俄罗斯控制。该港口主要处理 石油、液化石油气、粮食、化肥和其他货物。塔曼港最近一次遭到袭击是在去年12月，当时港口基础设施和数艘 船只受损。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 运费飙升促使一些船东使用新油轮运输俄罗斯石油。这项贸易通常由接近甚至超过使用寿命的老旧船舶承担。 2025年底，美国和欧盟将数百艘与俄罗斯石油贸易相关的油轮列入黑名单，导致供应紧张，运费也随之暴涨。声 誉 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 宏观与地缘方面，美国总统特朗普表示，正在推进中的格陵兰岛协议将赋予美国"一切想要的军事进入权"。特朗 普还威胁称，如果欧洲国家因其与格陵兰岛相关的关税威胁而抛售美国资产，美方将进行"强烈报复"。经济数据 方面，美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美联储青睐 的通胀指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。劳动力市场方面，美国上周 初请失业金人数20万人，低于预期的21万人。 矿端方面，外电1月21日消息，智利当选总统何塞・安东尼奥・卡斯特上演反转操作，令矿业界哗然。就在数小时 前，他还暗示将任命一位专职矿业部长，最终却宣布将矿业部门并入经济部。卡斯特在仪式上任命丹尼尔・曼 （Daniel Man）担任经济与矿业部长（双重职务）。这一决策遭多方质疑，外界对这一决定的批评主要集中在两点： 一是新任部长丹尼尔・曼的专业背景为农艺学，缺乏直接的矿业从业经验；二是将长期被视为国家经济战略部门 的矿业部降级合并，此举具有强烈的象征负面意义。矿产咨询集团董事何塞・卡贝略表示，这一 ...