农产品日报 | 2025-07-22 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7923元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.51%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-23，较前一日变动-40；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1677，较前一日变动-40。 近期市场资讯，当前苹果市场上，库存货源的交易氛围较为平淡。近期西部个别产区的走货情况稍有改善，不过 当地剩余货源已经不多，同时西部部分冷库中，带有水烂点的货源占比有所扩大，一些持货商开始出现急于出售 的心理，还有部分现货商选择出售自己储存的货源。 早熟果方面，目前仍以大荔、运城等地的华硕、秦阳品种为 主，整体上市量有限，对市场行情影响不大。山东产区的客商拿货态度依然谨慎，多以挑拣的方式采购，而当地 剩余货源中，中大果占比较高，走货速度偏慢。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果冲击影响仍然存在。陕西洛川产 区目前库内70#起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The theme of the chemical sector recently is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years, with the capacity of such methanol plants in China accounting for 8%. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. Some MTO plants' maintenance plans have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production cuts in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland area, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low but expected to recover gradually by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, and inland plant inventories have decreased again, maintaining a situation where the inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Figures include methanol Taicang basis and the main contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads such as between methanol 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 futures contracts [6][20][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures cover Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][31] 3. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) [33][34][40] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures present price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][46][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures display production margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][53][59] Market Data Inland - Q5500 Ordos steam coal is 450 yuan/ton (+10). Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 615 yuan/ton (-13). Inner Mongolia northern line methanol price is 1990 yuan/ton (+8), with a basis of 179 yuan/ton (-39); Inner Mongolia southern line is 1990 yuan/ton (+0). Shandong Linyi is 2300 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of 89 yuan/ton (-34). Henan is 2160 yuan/ton (-10), with a basis of - 51 yuan/ton (-56). Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (+0), with a basis of 39 yuan/ton (-46). Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 352340 tons (-4560), and northwest factory inventory is 218000 tons (-10000). Inland factory pending orders are 243119 tons (+21879), and northwest factory pending orders are 113600 tons (+13600) [1] Ports - Taicang methanol is 2398 yuan/ton (+13), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (-33). CFR China is 273 US dollars/ton (-2), and the East China import spread is - 18 yuan/ton (+11). Changzhou methanol is 2395 yuan/ton; Guangdong methanol is 2400 yuan/ton (+15), with a basis of - 11 yuan/ton (-31). Longzhong's total port inventory is 790200 tons (+71300), Jiangsu port inventory is 454000 tons (+59000), Zhejiang port inventory is 180000 tons (+4500), and Guangdong port inventory is 106000 tons (-6000). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (+0.27%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-8), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 spread is - 142 yuan/ton (+6), Taicang - Lunan - 250 spread is - 152 yuan/ton (+1), Lunan - Taicang - 100 spread is - 198 yuan/ton (-1), Guangdong - East China - 180 spread is - 178 yuan/ton (+2), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 spread is - 2 yuan/ton (+13) [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of PP2601 - 3MA2601 when the spread is high [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of gold has been in a volatile pattern since May, and Trump's tariff policy is changeable. Although the impact of tariffs on the US CPI in June is not obvious, there are still significant differences among Fed officials regarding future interest rate outlooks. The market is also concerned about whether Trump will replace Fed Chairman Powell. However, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, future interest rate cuts are still a high probability event. For gold and silver, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. There is a need to repair the gold-silver ratio, and if market risk sentiment recovers, it will be beneficial to silver. For arbitrage, short the gold-silver ratio at high levels, and put options on hold [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Summary - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if inflation data is low, interest rates should be cut. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now, but some Republican lawmakers have provided criminal charges against Powell to the judicial department, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively strong performance of gold and silver yesterday. Bessent also said that if secondary sanctions are imposed on Russia, he will urge Europe to follow the US. Trump Media & Technology Group has purchased a total of $2 billion in Bitcoin reserves and plans to continue acquisitions. The US and Germany are close to reaching an agreement to provide air defense systems to Ukraine, involving two Patriot missile systems [1]. 3.2 Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On July 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 780.10 yuan/gram and closed at 781.70 yuan/gram, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 784.70 yuan/gram and closed at 785.76 yuan/gram, up 0.76% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,286.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,271.00 yuan/kg, down 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 694,363 lots, and the open interest was 467,534 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,301 yuan/kg and closed at 9,420 yuan/kg, up 1.85% from the afternoon session [2]. 3.3 US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On July 21, 2025, the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond closed at 4.44%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year bonds was 3%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. 3.4 Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 1,123 lots compared with the previous day, and short positions decreased by 181 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 290,005 lots, down 43.67% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 4,269 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,884 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 880,780 lots, down 5.68% from the previous trading day [4]. 3.5 Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 947.06 tons, up 3.44 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,005.79 tons, up 347.58 tons from the previous trading day [5]. 3.6 Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On July 21, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was 2.07 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was -668.05 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 84.32, down 1.06% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 87.58, down 0.67% from the previous trading day [6]. 3.7 Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+D market was 40,262 kg, down 23.04% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 300,788 kg, up 43.25% from the previous trading day. The delivery volume of gold was 10,234 kg, and the delivery volume of silver was 74,070 kg [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: Suspended [6] - Option strategy: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The decline of LME and SHFE copper was due to the increase in LME inventory caused by Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st, but the supply - demand of copper has not changed fundamentally. With low TC prices and no significant weakening of terminal consumption, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 21, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,500 yuan/ton and closed at 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 79,770 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 - 290 yuan/ton to the current contract. The average premium rose 45 yuan from the previous day. The market showed three characteristics, and short - term spot premiums are expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: US Treasury Secretary said to cut interest rates if inflation is low. Trump Media & Technology Group bought $2 billion in Bitcoin. The US and Germany are close to an agreement to provide air - defense systems to Ukraine [3] - **Mine End**: In June 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,349,690.57 tons, down 1.91% month - on - month and up 1.77% year - on - year. Imports from Chile and Peru changed differently [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,042.568 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year. Imports from the DRC and Russia changed differently [4] - **Consumption**: On July 18, the copper rod order volume was 0.97 tons, down 0.10 tons from the previous day. The refined copper rod order volume and weekly total transactions also decreased [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 122,075 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 10,062 tons to 28,177 tons, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventory decreased by 2.47 tons to 11.86 tons [5] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Option: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - The table shows the changes in copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, arbitrage spreads, import profits, and the SHFE - LME ratio over different time periods [24][25][26]

Report Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, with the US cotton market expected to oscillate. In China, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted, and new pressure will be exerted on cotton prices in the fourth quarter [2] - For sugar, the raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [5][6] - For pulp, short - term anti - involution policies boost the market, but there is supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited, with the focus on whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,589 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's pure cotton yarn imports were about 93,300 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were about 589,600 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is in a supply - loose pattern, and the US cotton market is expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to be low. However, the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, the terminal demand is weak, and the cotton price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upside of the 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and long - term high - selling is advised [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,334 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,285 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market. In the second half of the year, the supply pressure remains, and the demand improvement is limited [8] Strategy - Neutral. It is difficult for the pulp price to break away from the bottom in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation are recommended [9]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 120,300 yuan/ton and closed at 122,550 yuan/ton, a change of 1.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 134,799 lots, and the open interest was 41,520 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened slightly lower at night, then rose rapidly and oscillated horizontally. During the day session, it oscillated upwards, slightly declined in the afternoon, and closed with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [2]. - The spot market saw an upward adjustment in the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel by about 1,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotes of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the futures market rose strongly, but the demand did not show obvious growth. The premium remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The spot trading was average [2]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,111 (551.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,876 (300) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of nickel have not improved, the nickel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The strategy for nickel is to be cautiously bullish on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,735 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 255,058 lots, and the open interest was 122,622 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher at night, rose rapidly, and then declined slightly in the second half of the night. During the day session, it rose rapidly to a new high and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [3]. - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold successively in August, and a mine has offered a quote of 1.3% FOB 31, which is lower than the previous period. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to the production cuts of smelters in local industrial parks. Currently, the nickel ore supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) has decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat compared with the previous period [3]. - There are obvious price differences in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from +23 to +28, but +24 is still the mainstream premium. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing nickel ice, and some small smelters have cut production. Some domestic smelters have also stopped production [4]. - According to Mysteel's research, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in China has remained stable at 900 - 905 yuan/nickel. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, driving most spot prices up, and the market inquiry atmosphere has improved. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 12,900 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 55 to 255 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 901.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, the stainless steel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

市场情绪向好，盘面大幅走高 市场分析 尿素日报 | 2025-07-22 价格与基差：2025-07-21，尿素主力收盘1812元/吨（+67）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1840 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1830元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1840元/吨（+30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： 18元/吨（-47）；河南基差：28元/吨（-37）；江苏基差：28元/吨（-37）；尿素生产利润300元/吨（+20），出口利润 1115元/吨（+172）。 供应端：截至2025-07-21，企业产能利用率85.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为89.55 万吨（-7.22），港口样本 库存量为54.10 万吨（+5.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-21，复合肥产能利用率32.55%（+2.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为64.24%（+1.68%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数6.06日（+0.12）。 工信部稳增长工作方案将推动重点行业着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。尿素市场情绪向好，商品价格持续 上涨。国内尿素装置投产时间超20年装置产能占比为20%，而投产时间超30年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The 2509 contract of Treasury bond futures is rated neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the risk appetite has recovered, suppressing the bond market. The delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the increase in global trade uncertainty have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 97.86, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 and a decline rate of - 0.61%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1795, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.004 and a decline rate of - 0.05%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.48, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.14%; DR007 is 1.49, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of - 1.10%; R007 is 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.22% [9] 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.96 yuan, 108.76 yuan, and 119.97 yuan respectively, with price changes of - 0.01%, - 0.05%, - 0.05%, and - 0.46% respectively. The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.018 yuan, - 0.001 yuan, - 0.031 yuan, and - 0.044 yuan respectively [2] 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On July 21, 2025, the central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4%. The main - term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.366%, 1.477%, 1.571%, and 1.534% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [1] 3.4 Spread Overview - The report presents various spread - related charts, including the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the relationships between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][43][44] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, and the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate [46][49] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TF main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TF main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [55][58] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the T main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the T main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [63][66] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows charts of the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the Treasury bond yield to maturity, the TL main contract's IRR and the fund interest rate, and the TL main contract's basis and net basis trends in the past three years [71][74][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With favorable weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas and strong expectations of a bumper soybean harvest, coupled with the expected increase in palm oil production in Malaysia, the overall oil prices are under pressure and fluctuating [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8910.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan or 0.60% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8092.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 68.00 yuan or 0.83%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9563.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.00 yuan or 0.24% [1] - **Spot**: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8950.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, and the spot basis was P09 + 40.00, an increase of 64.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan/ton or 0.36%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 138.00, an increase of 38.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9660.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.51%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 97.00, a decrease of 27.00 yuan [1] - **Market News**: United Plantations in Malaysia reported that in the second quarter, palm oil and palm kernel production increased by 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year respectively; on Monday, U.S. soybean and corn futures fell due to expected favorable rainfall for crops this week, while wheat prices were firm; AgRural estimated that the total corn production in Brazil in the 2024/25 season would reach 136.3 million tons, higher than the June forecast; as of last Thursday, farmers in the central - southern region of Brazil had harvested 55% of the second - crop corn; as of the week ending July 17, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 364,990 tons [2] Strategy - The strategy is to maintain a neutral stance [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to continuous disturbances on the supply - side, such as lithium ore approval issues and salt factory production cuts, along with a positive overall commodity sentiment recently, the lithium carbonate futures market is showing a strong trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2509 opened at 71,160 yuan/ton and closed at 71,280 yuan/ton, a 2.53% decline from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 848,150 lots, and the open interest was 381,185 lots (377,305 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 2,960 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 9,969 lots, a decrease of 270 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is between 67,000 - 69,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is between 65,850 - 66,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 758 US dollars/ton, an increase of 28 US dollars/ton. Although downstream material factories' acceptance of current prices remains low, their purchasing willingness has marginally improved due to the rising market trend and continuous inventory digestion [1] Supply - side Situation - In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month, equivalent to 46,400 tons of LCE. Australia, Zimbabwe, and South Africa are the main importing countries, accounting for 79%. The import volume from Australia was about 256,000 tons, a 31% decrease; from Zimbabwe, it was about 101,000 tons, a 3% increase; from South Africa, it was 98,000 tons, an 87% increase; and from Nigeria, it was 78,600 tons, a 21% increase [2] - Jiangte Motor announced that Yichun Yinli plans to shut down for equipment maintenance to reduce production costs and ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment. The shutdown will cover all lithium salt production lines, with no impact on existing sales contracts and future supply. The maintenance is expected to start on July 25, 2025, and last about 26 days [2] Strategy - Given the positive overall commodity sentiment and continuous supply - side disturbances, the lithium carbonate futures market is strong. It is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [3]