Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - For soybeans, the futures price of the bean one 2511 contract closed at 3975.00 yuan/ton yesterday, up 48.00 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible beans is A11+245, down 48 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast new grain is increasing during the National Day. Protein content is low due to weather, but overall production is expected to be less affected, with a yield of 350 - 400 jin/mu. Downstream demand is average, and grain traders are cautious in purchasing. The overall supply in the Northeast soybean producing area is loose, with high - quality beans having better prices, but the demand side has not improved, and soybean prices still face long - term pressure [1][2] - For peanuts, the futures price of the peanut 2511 contract closed at 7704.00 yuan/ton yesterday, down 60.00 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts is 8380.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton (-1.41%) month - on - month. The spot basis is PK11+696.00, up 60.00 (+9.43%) month - on - month. After the festival, the demand from oil mills has weakened, and the supply varies greatly in different regions. The listing pace in the Northeast is accelerating, while that in the North China region is slower due to rainy weather, resulting in large regional price differences [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2511 contract was 3975.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +48.00 yuan/ton (+1.22%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A11+245, with a change of -48 (-32.14%) from the previous day. In the Northeast, new grain is increasing, and there are different prices for different protein contents. The downstream demand is average, and high - quality resources are popular [1][2] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7704.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -60.00 yuan/ton (-0.77%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8380.00 yuan/ton, down 120.00 yuan/ton (-1.41%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK11+696.00, up 60.00 (+9.43%) month - on - month. There are price differences in different regions, and oil mills are cautious in purchasing [3] Group 4: Market Information Summary Soybeans - In the Northeast, during the National Day, new grain is gradually increasing. The purchase price of 40 - protein rough grain is 1.9 yuan/jin, 41 - protein is 1.95 yuan/jin, and low - protein is 1.8 - 1.85 yuan/jin. The downstream demand is average, and high - quality resources are popular [2] - The spot prices of different regions in Heilongjiang are stable, such as 2.11 yuan/jin in Harbin, 2.10 yuan/jin in Shuangyashan, etc. [2] Peanuts - The national average price of peanut general rice is 4.19 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from before the festival. There are price differences in different regions and varieties, and oil mills are cautious in purchasing [3]

航运日报 | 2025-10-10 巴以和谈消息扰动远月，马士基发布11月份涨价函 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹43周报价1080/1800；HPL -SPOT 10月下半月价格1235/2035；11月上半 月价格1535/2535。HPL发布最新涨价函，10月15日之后运价涨至1200/2000；马士基发布11月份涨价函，11月3日 之后价格涨至1625/2500. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 10月上半月价格855/1415，10月下半月价格涨至1245/2065；ONE 10月下半月价格 1305/2035；HMM上海-鹿特丹10月下半月价格1268/2106; YML 10/15-10/31报价1100/1900。MSC发布10/15-10/31 日涨价函 1320/2200。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹10月上半月船期报价1010/1620，10月下半月价格1310/2220，11月上半月船期 报价1691/2984；EMC 10月上半月船期价格介于1400-1610，10月下半月船期报价1355/ ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 现货价格持稳，工业硅多晶硅震荡运行 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8700-9000（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8700-9000（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西 北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅持稳。97硅价格小幅持稳。 SMM统计10月9日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.5万吨，较国庆节前增加0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库12万吨，较 节前环比持平，社会交割仓库42.5万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较节前增加0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10900-11200（0）元/吨。SMM报道，DMC报价也处于相对平稳状态。供 应方面，当前国内 DMC 单体生产企业的开工负荷保持在节前水平，整体行业开工率约为 71% ，供应规模相对稳 定。此外，多数单体生产企业手中仍持有一定量的预售订单支撑，且上游原材料成本端价格维持稳定，为 DMC 价 格提供了较强的成本支撑，双重因素叠加使得单体厂的挺价 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-10-10 债市开门红，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：2025年8月1日，财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新 发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续 发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直至到期；关税方面，中美发布斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天；国务院第九次全体会议强调，采取有力措施巩固房地产市场止跌回稳态势， 培育壮大服务消费，加力扩大有效投资；9月10日，财政部长明确表示，"持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策"；发改委也表示"不断释放内需潜力" 和 "推进重点行业产能治理"。（2）通胀：8月CPI同比下降0.4%。 资金面：（3）财政：财政：8月末，M2同比增长8.8%，M1同比回升至6%，剪刀差连续收窄，显示资金活性增强， 企业经营活力改善。前八个月人民币贷款增加13.46万亿元，社融增量累计26.56万亿元，政府债券融资占比高企， 反映企业中长期融资需求仍偏弱。存款同比增长8.6%，信贷和存款增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral to bearish, short the PG main contract on rallies [2] Core Viewpoints - The LPG market still faces pressure, and the post - holiday market may gradually digest negative factors. Attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream chemical profit and demand after the reduction of the CP cost center [1] Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on October 9**: Shandong market: 4520 - 4560; Northeast market: 4020 - 4280; North China market: 4350 - 4600; East China market: 4260 - 4630; Yangtze River market: 4590 - 4830; Northwest market: 4400 - 4500; South China market: 4548 - 4750 [1] - **November 2025 Prices**: In East China, propane CIF price is 540 USD/ton (down 8 USD/ton), butane is 520 USD/ton (down 15 USD/ton), equivalent to RMB propane 4227 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), butane 4070 yuan/ton (down 115 yuan/ton). In South China, propane CIF price is 535 USD/ton (down 6 USD/ton), butane is 515 USD/ton (down 13 USD/ton), equivalent to RMB propane 4188 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan/ton), butane 4031 yuan/ton (down 99 yuan/ton) [1] - **Market Performance**: On the previous day, the domestic LPG futures dropped significantly, with the main contract PG2511 down 5.19% at the afternoon close. In the spot market, prices in the Northwest region decreased, while other regions remained stable. The market was mild, and upstream sales were acceptable [1] - **Supply Situation**: Overseas supply remained abundant with potential for further growth. Domestic commodity supply fluctuated slightly but overall remained abundant [1] - **Demand Situation**: Recently, with the temperature drop, downstream users in the combustion sector actively entered the market. There was limited change in the deep - processing sector [1] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral to bearish, short the PG main contract on rallies [2] - **Inter - period**: None [2] - **Inter - variety**: None [2] - **Futures - cash**: None [2] - **Options**: None [2]

就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油市场结构近期边际走强，期货注册仓单量减少也对FU盘面结构形成额外支 撑。但基于目前的估值水平与供需状况来看，上行驱动和空间仍有限，需要新的变量催化。 低硫燃料油方面，近期Dangote与Pengerang炼厂RFCC装置停工导致局部低硫燃料油供应增加，9月份发货量达到50 万吨，对现货市场形成一定压制。而根据IIR最新消息，Dangote炼厂装置可能会在10月14日重启，如果顺利运行则 该炼厂低硫燃料油产量将再度回落，从而缓解局部供应压力。中期来看，低硫船燃需求份额被替代的趋势尚未逆 转，市场上方阻力依然较大。 策略 燃料油日报 | 2025-10-10 Dangote炼厂RFCC装置有望近期重启 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.25%，报2834元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌1.23%，报3360 元/吨。 原油价格反复震荡，俄乌局势引发的地缘溢价还在延续，但基本面转为过剩的预期开始演绎，因此短期方向不明 朗，中期油价存在一定下行压力。 高硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 低硫方面：短期中性，中期向下 跨品种：无 跨期：逢低多FU2511-2512价差 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13295元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨，幅度+0.61%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14755元/吨，较前一日变动-46元/吨，现货基差CF01+1460，较前一日变动-185；3128B棉全国均价14739元/吨， 较前一日变动-20元/吨，现货基差CF01+1444，较前一日变动-203。 近期市场资讯，巴西2025/26年度新棉供应放量，加上海外纺企刚需补库，装运节奏明显加快。9月巴西棉出口量为 17.9万吨，环比（7.7万吨）大幅增加130.8%，同比（17.0万吨）增加5.5%。从当月出口目的地看，中国为主要出 口国，出口量占总量的19%；巴基斯坦及越南出口量排第二，各占比15%；孟加拉出口量排第三，占比14%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价小幅反弹。国际方面，9月USDA报告调增全球棉花产量和消费量，期初库存和期末库存继续调减， 全球库存创近四年低点，不过USDA对于中国等增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍 将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, macro - impacts are limited, and nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,300 yuan/ton and closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, a 2.39% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 130,864 (+3,674) lots, and the open interest was 86,038 (9,898) lots. Domestic new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure during the National Day holiday strengthened the medium - to - long - term demand expectations for key metals in new energy and high - end manufacturing. Overseas, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, the market's bet on further easing at the late - October FOMC meeting increased, and the US dollar index slightly declined [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: After the holiday, the nickel - ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, and mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply is in a continuous loose pattern, and the 10 - month (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 dollars. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has increased the uncertainty of medium - to - long - term production capacity release [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the collective rise of the non - ferrous sector and post - holiday restocking demand, the trading of refined nickel was fair, and the premiums of some brands increased slightly but remained stable overall [3]. - **Strategy** - The macro - impact on nickel prices is limited, and prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,195 (-39,957) lots, and the open interest was 60,514 (-4,171) lots. On the first trading day after the holiday, although LME nickel rose sharply during the holiday, the stainless - steel contract opened lower due to the decline of the black - metal sector. It then rose in the afternoon driven by the increase in Shanghai nickel but failed to break through the resistance near 12,900 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot**: On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, the spot market remained sluggish as before the holiday, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. Affected by the rise in the Shanghai nickel futures price in the afternoon, the spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was still limited [5]. - **Strategy** - Due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recommended single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [5].

尿素日报 | 2025-10-10 节后厂内库存高位累库 市场分析 策略 单边：中性 跨期：UR01-05逢高反套 跨品种：无 价格与基差：2025-10-09，尿素主力收盘1609元/吨（-61）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1570 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1560元/吨（-40）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1570元/吨（-30）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：-49 元/吨（+21）；河南基差：-39元/吨（+41）；江苏基差：-39元/吨（+31）；尿素生产利润30元/吨（-40），出口利润1083 元/吨（+0）。 供应端：截至2025-10-09，企业产能利用率85.67%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为144.39 万吨（+21.22），港口样 本库存量为41.50 万吨（-3.80）。 需求端：截至2025-10-09，复合肥产能利用率25.50%（-6.96%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.47%（+3.95%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.00日（-2.18）。 国庆期间尿素需求偏弱，尿素现货价格持续走弱，期货跟随震荡下跌。本周期内内需跟进不足导致厂内库存继续 累积，本周较国庆 ...

原油日报 | 2025-10-10 1、 纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1.04美元，收于每桶61.51美元，跌幅为1.66%；12月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌1.03美元，收于每桶65.22美元，跌幅为1.55%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.96%，报464 元/桶。 2、 阿联酋富查伊拉石油工业区最新数据显示，截至10月6日当周，阿联酋富查伊拉港的成品油总库存为1633.4万 桶，较一周前增加300.6万桶。其中轻质馏分油库存增加217.9万桶至810.7万桶，中质馏分油库存增加41.6万桶至230.7 万桶，重质残渣燃料油库存增加41.1万桶至592万桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 EIA短期能源展望报告：预计2025年布伦特价格为68.64美元/桶，此前预期为67.80美元/桶。预计2025年WTI原 油价格为65.00美元/桶，此前预期为64.16美元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 新加坡企业发展局（ESG）：截至10月8日当周，新加坡燃料油库存下降892000桶，至2366.9万桶的两周低点。 （来源：Bloomberg） 5、 俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克：俄罗斯将逐 ...