油脂日报 | 2025-07-17 供需结构稳定，油脂震荡运行 策略 中性 风险 政策变化 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8722.00元/吨，环比变化+14元，幅度+0.16%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8042.00 元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.37%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9470.00元/吨，环比变化+66.00元，幅度+0.70%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨，环比变化+50.00元，幅度+0.57%，现货基差P09+68.00，环比变 化+36.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8200.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元/吨，幅度+0.49%，现货基差Y09+158.00， 环比变化+10.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9590.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.74%，现货基差 OI09+120.00，环比变化+4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：俄罗斯农业咨询机构Sovecon表示，已将2025年谷物总产量预测上调至1.305亿吨，较此前预期 的1.295亿吨有所增加。Sovecon表示，俄罗斯小麦产量预测已从此前预期的 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross-period: None; Cross-variety: Short the coal-based production profit at high levels [3] Core View - The total inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 72,200 tons to 896,000 tons. The inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline, while the port inventory continued to increase due to good urea exports and increased port collection willingness. The production of urea enterprises remained high with few maintenance plans. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continued to advance, the start - up of compound fertilizers increased, and the demand for urea showed a phased increase. Industrial demand remained weak [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes figures such as the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [1][7][8] 2. Urea Production - It includes figures of urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [18] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - It includes figures of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [18][20] 4. Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - It includes figures of the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, and urea export profit and disk export profit [23][25][32] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - It includes figures of compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and urea enterprise advance order days [1][46] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, and futures warehouse receipts [2][44]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-17 锌海外库存持续增加 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-9.95 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌100元/吨至22050元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于30元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌110元/吨至21970元/吨。 SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-50元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌110元/吨至 22000元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至-20元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-16沪锌主力合约开于22040元/吨，收于22045元/吨，较前一交易日下跌60元/吨，全天交易日成 交89469手，较前一交易日减少29569手，全天交易日持仓78311手，较前一交易日减少5993手，日内价格震荡，最 高点达到22065元/吨，最低点达到21965元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-14，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为9.31万吨，较上周同期增加0.4万吨。截止2025-07-16，LME 锌库存为121350吨，较上一交易日增加2750吨。 市场分析 现货市场 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, both soybeans and peanuts show a slightly strong and volatile trend, but in the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is likely to be loose [1][2][4] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soybean View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2507 contract yesterday was 4179.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A07 + 121, down 30 (-32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market remained stable on July 16 [1] - Market Situation: The current domestic soybeans are in the transition period between old and new crops. Tight short - term supply due to the digestion of old stocks is offset by the expected abundant supply in the long - term from increased imports and good growth of new crops. The demand side has short - term support but also faces constraints [2] - **Strategy** - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 8232.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.49%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8720.00 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot basis was PK10 - 32.00, down 40.00 (-500.00%) from the previous day. Market quotes were generally stable, and the trading was in a stalemate [3] - Market Situation: Short - term supply is tight due to factors such as low cold - storage inventory liquidity and uneven regional supply. However, the expected supply will increase with the stable growth of the new - season planting area and good growth [3][4] - **Strategy** - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [3]

农产品日报 | 2025-07-17 苹果库存交易稳定，陈枣供应依旧充足 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约7840元/吨，较前一日变动-22元/吨，幅度-0.28%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.95元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+60，较前一日变动+22；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+1760，较前一日变动+22。 近期市场资讯，苹果市场行情整体维持稳淡运行，近期西部个别产区走货略好转，货源剩余不多，山东客商拿货 仍显谨慎，多挑拣拿货。西部部分冷库水烂点货源面积扩大，部分持货商开始存急售心理，部分现货商发自存货 源，早熟果目前仍以大荔、运城等地晨阳、华硕、秦阳为主，整体上量有限，对行情影响不大。山东产区仍以发 市场为主，价格小幅松动后走货依旧不快。销区市场走货一般，消暑类水果存在冲击。陕西洛川产区目前库内70# 起步统货4.2-4.5元/斤，70#起步半商品4.5-5.0元/斤，以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上 统货2.8-3. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-17 现货成交一般，碳酸锂受近月交割博弈影响 市场分析 2025年7月16日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于67300元/吨，收于66420元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当 日成交量为478114手，持仓量为340618手，较前一交易日减少1528手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳1470 元/吨。所有合约总持仓619618手，较前一交易日减少3318手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日减少354227手，成 交量减少，整体投机度为0.92 。当日碳酸锂仓单10655手，较上个交易日减少548手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年7月16日电池级碳酸锂报价6.39-6.6万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.005万元/吨， 工业级碳酸锂报价6.285-6.385万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.005万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为14.08 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.86 万吨，下游库存为4.08 万吨， 其他库存为4.14 万吨。据SMM数据，受长协订单覆盖及客供比例较高等因素影响，下游企业对现行市场价格接受 度较低，采购需求持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways [1][2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [3][4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways with a Downward Bias [5][6] - Thermal Coal: Sideways with an Upward Bias in the Short Term, Supply Remains Loose in the Medium to Long Term [7] Core Views - Steel: Short - term positive factors are exhausted, and the steel market will maintain a sideways trend. The demand for steel still has resilience, and the fundamentals provide effective support [1]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals provide strong support, and the iron ore price will move up in a sideways manner. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Market sentiment has cooled, and the coking coal and coke market will move down in a sideways manner. The supply of coke is tight, and the demand from downstream steel enterprises remains resilient [5][6]. - Thermal Coal: As the temperature rises in July, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term, while the supply remains loose in the medium to long term [7]. Market Analysis Steel - Futures and Spot: Steel futures declined slightly yesterday. The spot price was relatively firm, and the overall basis continued to widen. The spot transaction volume was 8740 tons. In early July, the average daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises was 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous period. The steel inventory was 15.07 million tons, a 2.4% decrease from the previous period. The average cost of billet in Tangshan was 2775 yuan/ton, with an average profit of 175 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: This week's data shows that the output of building materials increased, consumption decreased, and inventory increased; the production and sales of hot - rolled coils increased, and inventory decreased. The demand for steel still has resilience, and attention should be paid to basis repair, policy implementation, overseas tariffs, and hedging funds [1]. Iron Ore - Futures and Spot: Iron ore futures prices trended slightly upwards yesterday. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties rose slightly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly replenished their stocks as needed. The total transaction volume of iron ore at major ports was 1 million tons, a 1.48% decrease from the previous day; the total transaction volume of forward - delivery spot was 1.52 million tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous day [3]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: Although the molten iron output has declined, it is still at a relatively high level. The consumption of iron ore shows good resilience. In the long run, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption intensity of steel during the off - season and the changes in iron ore inventory [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - Futures and Spot: The futures prices of coking coal and coke trended downwards yesterday. The inventory of imported coal at ports was tight, and traders continued to hold up prices. Attention should be paid to port customs clearance and supply recovery [5]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: For coke, on the one hand, the price of raw coal remains high, and after the price increase is implemented, the profit of coke enterprises will improve, but the production willingness is still relatively conservative, and the supply remains tight; on the other hand, the profit of downstream steel enterprises is good, and the plant inventory is running at a low level, so the demand remains resilient. For coking coal, the market trading atmosphere is relatively active, and the downstream demand is stable. The supply is gradually recovering, but the overall recovery is limited. Attention should be paid to the coal mine recovery progress and the molten iron output of downstream steel mills during the traditional off - season [5][6]. Thermal Coal - Futures and Spot: In the production areas, some coal mines stopped production due to water accumulation and safety inspections, and mine owners were more willing to raise prices, with some coal varieties rising by 5 - 10 yuan. At ports, the upstream shipping cost increased, there was a structural shortage at ports, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement was completed stage by stage. As the high - temperature range expanded, the daily consumption increased, and traders were optimistic about the peak - season market, so the market coal price increased steadily. For imports, the price of high - calorie Australian coal was inverted compared with the domestic winning bid price, with low liquidity. The low - calorie Indonesian coal had obvious cost - performance advantages, and there were many downstream tenders [7]. - Supply - Demand and Logic: In July, as the temperature rises, the daily consumption is increasing, and the downstream demand is strengthening. The coal price will move up in a sideways manner in the short term. In the medium to long term, the supply remains loose. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [7]. Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Sideways - Coke: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - Spot: None - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal - No specific strategy information provided

氯碱日报 | 2025-07-17 PVC回归基本面，盘面偏弱震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4934元/吨（-41）；华东基差-84元/吨（+31）;华南基差-94元/吨（-9）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4850元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（-50）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格535元/吨（+0）；电石价格2825元/吨（+0）；电石利润107元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-445元/吨（+107）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-621元/吨（+74）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（+0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存38.2万吨（-0.5）；PVC社会库存39.3万吨（+2.0）；PVC电石法开工率76.93%（-3.80%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.23%（+4.77%）；PVC开工率75.07%（-1.43%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.0万吨（+3.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2466元/吨（-46）；山东32%液碱基差159元/吨（+46）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价840元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: Short coal - based profit [3] Core View - International crude oil prices are continuously declining with further decline expected, weakening the cost support for polyolefins. Upstream petrochemical plants' devices are restarting, increasing supply, while downstream demand remains in the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand balance [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). PE oil - based production profit is 167.1 yuan/ton (-5.0), PP oil - based production profit is -222.9 yuan/ton (-5.0), and PDH - based PP production profit is 245.0 yuan/ton (+52.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Compared the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, etc. [32][40][41] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is -177.5 yuan/ton (-44.5), PP import profit is -672.8 yuan/ton (-24.7), and PP export profit is 34.2 US dollars/ton (+3.0) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [73][78][88]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation. Crude oil prices have retreated, weakening cost support for asphalt but without forming an obvious trend. The overall supply - demand situation of asphalt remains weak with low inventory and relatively few market contradictions. There are growth expectations on both the supply and demand sides, and attention should be paid to inventory trends. A continuous increase in inventory from a low level may suppress market sentiment. The strategy for asphalt is a "sideways" outlook for the single - sided position, and there are no specific strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On July 16, the closing price of the main asphalt futures contract BU2509 in the afternoon session was 3,623 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 225,480 lots, a decrease of 1,357 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 108,223 lots, a decrease of 66,085 lots [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast 3,900 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong 3,660 - 4,070 yuan/ton; South China 3,600 - 3,630 yuan/ton; East China 3,660 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The asphalt spot price in the South China market decreased slightly yesterday, while prices in other regions remained stable [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures on various aspects of the asphalt market, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest (single - sided and main contract), production (domestic weekly, independent refineries, Shandong, East China, South China, North China), consumption (road, waterproofing, coking, shipping fuel), and inventory (refinery and social inventory) [3]