Workflow
Hua Tai Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
新能源及有色金属日报:供需两端均有减弱,多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, the supply - demand pattern improves during the dry season, but the total inventory is high and lacks driving force. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise [1][3]. - For polysilicon, both supply and demand have decreased, the overall inventory pressure is large, and the consumer - end performance is average. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations, and is expected to be mainly volatile [4][7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,940 yuan/ton and closed at 8,960 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.11%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract at the close was 263,919 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,714 lots, a change of - 810 lots from the previous day [1]. - The industrial silicon spot price was stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat [1]. - As of the end of October, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%; wind power installed capacity was 590 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 21.4%. In the first ten months of 2025, the total new photovoltaic capacity was 253GW [1]. - The consumption - end organic silicon DMC quotation was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. The current mainstream quotation was around 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, and downstream enterprises actively followed up. The market's confidence in a price increase was enhanced, but the increase needed to be digested. The market was expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side volatile operation, opening at 53,315 yuan/ton and closing at 54,730 yuan/ton, a 2.79% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 129,077 lots (128,427 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 235,600 lots [4]. - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.10 (a 1.50% month - on - month change), silicon wafer inventory was 18.72GW (a 1.63% month - on - month change), polysilicon weekly output was 27,100.00 tons (a 1.11% month - on - month change), and silicon wafer output was 12.78GW (a - 2.59% month - on - month change) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.57 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece. Enterprises accelerated the production - reduction rhythm at the end of November, and the OEM orders of specialized factories decreased significantly, so the actual production schedule for the month was likely to be lower than expected [5]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was about 0.29 yuan/W (- 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon G12 was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN was 0.28 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/W [6]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].
新能源及有色金属日报:市场观望情绪相对浓重,铅价震荡偏弱-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:05
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-26 市场观望情绪相对浓重 铅价震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-11-25,LME铅现货升水为-28.49美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000 元/吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至0.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/ 吨至17075元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-75元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至9950元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10075元/吨,废黑壳较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至10300元/吨。 期货方面:2025-11-25,沪铅主力合约开于17115元/吨,收于17045元/吨,较前一交易日变化-90元/吨,全天交易日 成交40496手,较前一交易日变化2076手,全天交易日持仓52466手,手较前一交易日变化-422手,日内价格震荡, 最高点达到17130元/吨,最低点达到1 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:中美关系利好,镍不锈钢价格反弹-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and a persistent oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, as the current price has reached a 5 - year low, the downward space is relatively limited [1][3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with low demand, high inventory, and a continuously decreasing cost center, stainless - steel prices are also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation. Considering the current price is at a historical low, further decline is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 115,880 yuan/ton and closed at 116,160 yuan/ton, a 0.75% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 116,438 (-32,096) lots, and the open interest was 141,215 (-6,339) lots. The contract continued to rebound and closed slightly higher, but the trading volume decreased, indicating market hesitation. Macro factors such as positive signals from China - US leadership communication and dovish signals from Fed officials supported nickel prices [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments are unstable, and the latest tender prices have slightly declined but remain high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price has dropped to 880 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch), leading to a lack of market confidence. Iron plants' profits are affected, and they are cautious in purchasing nickel ore. Some iron plants are considering production cuts. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price has dropped by 0.12 - 0.2 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 121,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,070 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to previous price drops and production cuts by some enterprises, spot supply has tightened, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 4,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 33,785 (-294) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (0) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range - bound operations. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,405 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,286 (+2,692) lots, and the open interest was 147,237 (-4,171) lots. The contract rose slightly, basically following the trend of Shanghai nickel. The trading volume increased slightly, and market activity improved. Macro factors such as the rising expectation of Fed rate cuts and China's issuance of 1 trillion yuan in national bonds and early release of local bond quotas boosted market confidence and stainless - steel prices [3]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, the spot market has recovered, with some purchasing demand released and increased market transactions. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,625 (-50) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 12,650 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 340 - 490 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 887.0 yuan/nickel point [3][4]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other**: No operations are recommended for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].
黑色建材日报:宏观情绪乐观,钢价震荡运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:04
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillating weakly [3] - Coking Coal: Oscillating weakly [4] - Coke: Oscillating [4] - Thermal Coal: Oscillating strongly [5][6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is optimistic, and steel prices are oscillating. The inventory pressure of finished products has been significantly relieved, but the high inventory of plates still suppresses prices [1]. - The supply - demand disturbances of iron ore continue, and ore prices maintain an oscillation. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts [2]. - The supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke is accumulating. Coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, and coke prices follow coking coal fluctuations [3][4]. - The rigid demand for thermal coal procurement is stable, and coal prices are oscillating strongly. The supply is gradually tightening, but the port market sentiment is weak [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are 3106 yuan/ton and 3309 yuan/ton respectively. The spot trading volume decreased compared with the previous day, with 10.13 tons of building materials traded nationwide [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After weeks of continuous inventory reduction, the inventory pressure of finished products has been relieved. The supply - demand fundamentals of building materials have improved, and the inventory pressure of coils and rebar has been well alleviated. The supply and demand of plates are both strong, but high inventory suppresses prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore rose slightly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports rose slightly. The cumulative transaction volume of main port iron ore was 97.5 tons, a 13.02% decrease from the previous day. The cumulative transaction volume of forward spot was 165.0 tons, a 73.68% increase [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The iron ore shipment decreased slightly this week, and the port inventory continued to rise. Downstream steel mills have triggered production cuts due to continuous losses, and there is a possibility of further production cuts [2]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be oscillating weakly, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures of coking coal and coke oscillated. The coke market was stable and weak, and the production increased steadily. Some coal mines in the origin of coking coal had production cuts, and the import of Mongolian coal was affected by snow [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply of coking coal increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction gradually accumulated. The cost support of coke weakened, and the market sentiment turned weak [4]. - **Strategy**: Coking coal should be oscillating weakly, and coke should be oscillating. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas oscillated. The shipments of large stations and power plants were stable, and the procurement of metallurgy and chemical industries was active. The port market sentiment was weak, and the downstream procurement demand was cold. The import coal bid price decreased [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The overall supply is gradually tightening, which supports coal prices. The inventory in coal mines is not high, but the inventory in northern ports has increased rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Recently, the wait - and - see sentiment has increased, and coal prices are oscillating [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:消费端分歧较大,碳酸锂盘面或维持高位震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Group 1: Market Analysis - On November 25, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 91,000 yuan/ton and closed at 95,400 yuan/ton, with a 4.47% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 511,279 lots, and the open interest was 343,199 lots, down from 365,078 lots the previous day. The current basis is 810 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 26,615 lots, a change of 105 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 89,800 - 94,300 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 88,300 - 91,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,120 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. When the futures price is in the range of 90,000 - 92,000 yuan, downstream material factories increase their procurement, and market transactions become more active. As the futures price rises to around 95,000 yuan, downstream material factories reduce their price - fixing behavior. Currently, upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term agreements for next year, mainly focusing on the coefficient [1]. Group 2: New Energy Policy - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the electricity price bidding for new energy incremental projects in 2026. The bidding does not distinguish between project types. The bidders are new energy projects that were put into operation (fully grid - connected) between June 1, 2025 (inclusive) and December 31, 2026 (inclusive), have not been included in the mechanism electricity price implementation scope, and voluntarily participate [2]. - The total scale of the bidding electricity is 1.2 billion kWh in 2026. The upper limit of the bidding price for wind and photovoltaic is 0.3598 yuan/kWh. The upper limit of the declared electricity volume for a single project does not exceed the estimated annual on - grid electricity volume, which is determined by multiplying the installed capacity by the annual average power generation utilization hours and deducting the power consumption of the power plant. The annual average power generation utilization hours for photovoltaic power generation in Beijing is 1,450 hours, and for wind power is 2,000 hours, with a power plant power consumption rate of 3%. The implementation period for the selected projects' mechanism electricity price is 12 years [2]. Group 3: Strategy - Currently, there are significant differences in the consumer end. There are large differences in the overall production scheduling expectations after the decline in the power end in the first - quarter off - season of 2026 and the supplement of energy storage. In the short term, it cannot be falsified, and the futures market may maintain high - level volatile operation [3]. - For unilateral trading, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption, and the resumption of production at the mine end, and sell on rallies for hedging when the opportunity arises. For inter - period, inter - variety, and spot - futures trading, there are no specific strategies. For options, sell out - of - the - money options on both sides [3].
新能源及有色金属日报:现货升贴水持续偏强运行-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [6] 2. Report's Core View - The domestic spot premium is showing a stable and improving trend, with the spread between different months narrowing, while the overseas premium remains high for a long time, and the export window remains open. The TC at home and abroad continues to decline, and the smelting comprehensive cost begins to face losses. The social inventory center continues to decline. The fundamental data has turned from bearish to bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. Although there are fluctuations in the expectation of a US interest rate cut in December, the future consumption is optimistic, and the expectation of an interest rate cut remains unchanged, with re - inflation not yet reflected [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $140.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan per ton, with a change of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 30 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 20 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 10 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On November 25, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,335 yuan per ton, closed at 22,360 yuan per ton, with a change of 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 84,904 lots, and the position was 99,591 lots. The highest intraday price reached 22,420 yuan per ton, and the lowest reached 22,275 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 151,000 tons, with a change of - 17,000 tons from the previous period. As of November 25, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 48,000 tons, with a change of 575 tons from the previous trading day [4]
FICC日报:人民币汇率稳步走强,美联储降息预期强化-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 03:00
FICC日报 | 2025-11-26 人民币汇率稳步走强,美联储降息预期强化 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日,"十五五"规划建议全文发布,公报提到,到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升,人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算,"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右,较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日, 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识,11月5日,中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面,10月全国制造业PMI录得49, 环比值下跌0.8;中国10月出口(以美元计价)同比下降1.1%,前值增8.3%,进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响,前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化,同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓。11 月14日国务院常务会议,研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作,部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措 施,国内经济基础仍待夯实。国务院新闻办公室定于2025年11月27日(星期四)上午10时举行国务院政策例行吹 风会,介绍增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施有关情况。1 ...
甲醇日报:继续关注伊朗装置冬检进展-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:59
甲醇日报 | 2025-11-26 继续关注伊朗装置冬检进展 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面:Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨(+0),内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润583元/吨(+0);内地甲醇价格方面,内 蒙北线1988元/吨(+0),内蒙北线基差521元/吨(+10),内蒙南线1970元/吨(+50);山东临沂2185元/吨(+5), 鲁南基差318元/吨(+15);河南2065元/吨(+25),河南基差198元/吨(+35);河北2125元/吨(+45),河北基差318 元/吨(+55)。隆众内地工厂库存358700吨(-10550),西北工厂库存188500吨(-17000);隆众内地工厂待发订单 246320吨(+920),西北工厂待发订单125400吨(+8900)。 内地方面,西南卡贝乐开始限气停车,但同时久泰托县重新复工,内地供应压力仍偏高;MTO方面,阳煤MTO检 修中,鲁西MTO低负荷状态;关注联泓二期MTO年底投产进度。传统下游方面,醋酸开工仍维持低位,甲醛淡季 低负荷,仅MTBE开工偏高。 策略 港口方面:太仓甲醇2060元/吨(+7),太仓基差-7元/吨(+17),CFR中国23 ...
农产品日报:现货持续累库,豆粕宽幅震荡-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][6] Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic supply of bean meal is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals. Although the oil mill operating rate has increased, inventory consumption is slow, and the price is affected by the decline in CBOT soybean prices but supported by high import costs. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] - For corn, new grain is concentrated on the market, showing a slightly loose supply. However, farmers have a strong mentality of holding back sales, leading to strong port and production area prices. Attention should be paid to farmers' grain - selling and traders' shipping [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3013 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: Tianjin's bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jiangsu's was 2980 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased by 2 compared to the previous day [1] - Market information: Brazil exported 336.6 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 24 million tons, a 79% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 81% of the expected area. As of November 20, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 79.9 million tons [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is loose, with slow inventory consumption. The decline in CBOT soybean prices drives the domestic bean meal price down, but high import costs provide support [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2242 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.99%) from the previous day; the corn starch 2511 contract was 2556 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (+0.83%) - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot basis in these areas decreased compared to the previous day [4] - Market information: Brazil exported 393.9 million tons of corn in the first three weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 28.1 million tons, a 13% increase from the daily average of the whole month last November. As of November 20, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's central - southern region was 93%. As of November 20, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 163.2 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Supply: New corn is concentrated on the market, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to strong prices. The supply in North China is tight due to previous disasters. - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises purchase as needed, and feed enterprises start to increase inventory [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]
新能源及有色金属日报:铜价冲高之际,下游采购有所放缓-20251126
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-26 02:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Short put [7] Core Viewpoints - Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and geopolitical factors have led to copper price fluctuations. However, lower prices have boosted downstream purchasing, and short hedging positions have been unwound, providing support at the 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton level. Buying hedges can be made at this level, and selling hedges can be made above 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On November 25, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 86,080 yuan/ton and closed at 86,600 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 86,350 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. - **Spot Situation**: The SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot quoted a premium of 0 - 160 yuan/ton to the 2512 contract, with an average premium of 80 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price ranged from 86,330 to 86,890 yuan/ton. After the copper price rose above 86,500 yuan/ton, downstream purchasing slowed. It is expected that today's spot trading will remain stalemated [2]. Important Information Summaries - **Inflation Data**: In September, US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Retail sales increased 0.2% month - on - month, with a slowdown and lower - than - expected growth [3]. - **Fiscal Data**: In October, the US federal government budget deficit reached $284 billion due to the government "shutdown". The release of the 2026 fiscal year's first - month budget results was postponed [3]. - **Fed Information**: The selection of the Fed chairman is in the final stage. A Fed official called for significant interest rate cuts [3]. - **Mine - end News**: DPM Metals faces pressure to abandon its $600 million Loma Larga gold - copper project in Ecuador. Anglo American's Quellaveco copper mine in Peru has produced 1 million tons of copper since 2022, with an expected output of 310,000 - 340,000 tons in 2025 [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: The global copper processing pricing mechanism is changing. The long - standing annual benchmark pricing system may be adjusted, with a trend towards more bilateral agreements and price - range settings [5]. - **Consumption**: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased by 3.2 percentage points to 70.07%, and is expected to reach 72.74% next week. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 1.32 percentage points to 65.68% and is expected to continue rising [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 725 tons to 156,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 2,851 tons to 40,965 tons. On November 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 180,600 tons, a decrease of 13,900 tons from the previous week [6]. Copper Price and Basis Data - **Spot Premium**: SMM 1 copper premium was 80 yuan/ton, down from 85 yuan/ton the previous day [26]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 156,575 tons, SHFE inventory was 110,603 tons, and COMEX inventory was 371,388 tons [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: SHFE warehouse receipts were 40,965 tons, down from 43,816 tons the previous day [28]. - **Arbitrage and Import Profit**: The import profit was - 1,027 yuan, and the copper - to - aluminum and copper - to - zinc arbitrage ratios also changed [29].