能源化工板块成交5255.65亿元，较上一交易日变动-8.19%；持仓金额4667.18亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.06%；成 交持仓比为102.77%。 农产品板块成交3204.13亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.96%；持仓金额6148.02亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.24%；成交 持仓比为47.77%。 黑色建材板块成交2526.24亿元，较上一交易日变动+34.46%；持仓金额3335.19亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.32%； 成交持仓比为78.18%。 流动性日报 | 2026-01-19 市场流动性概况 2026-01-16，股指板块成交9839.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.05%；持仓金额16295.88亿元，较上一交易日变动 -3.72%；成交持仓比为60.14%。 国债板块成交3443.07亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.98%；持仓金额8089.31亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.68%；成交 持仓比为41.93%。 基本金属板块成交14086.41亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.67%；持仓金额7846.89亿元，较上一交易日变动-7.07%； 成交持仓比为174.97%。 贵金属板块成交115 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Directory 1. Option Trading Volume - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 1.5574 million contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 2.0447 million contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 3.2301 million contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 74,100 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 2.0043 million contracts; SSE 50 index options was 47,100 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 276,400 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 403,500 contracts [1] - The detailed breakdown of call, put, and total trading volumes for different index ETF options is presented in Table 1 [18] 2. Option PCR - The turnover ratio PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.73, with a month - on - month change of +0.10; the open interest PCR was 0.89, with a month - on - month change of - 0.05. Similar data is provided for other options [2][32] - The turnover ratio PCR and open interest PCR, along with their month - on - month changes, for different index ETF options are presented in Table 2 [32] 3. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 16.59%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.56%. Similar data is provided for other options [3] - The VIX and its month - on - month change values for different index ETF options are presented in Table 3 [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the nickel market, the tightening expectation of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has led to a significant increase in nickel prices. However, due to high short - term inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, the price may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. For the stainless - steel market, prices are likely to continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak fundamentals in demand and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction [1][3][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 143,000 yuan/ton and closed at 146,750 yuan/ton, a 4.08% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,738,133 (+667,439) lots, and the open interest was 101,617 (-8,358) lots. The price showed a pattern of "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock", driven by the expectation of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. The People's Bank of China's policy of lowering interest rates on various structural monetary policy tools also supported the non - ferrous metal sector [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was generally stable. Indonesia's official benchmark price for the second half of January was raised as expected, supporting market sentiment. Mines maintained firm quotes, but there were no new public tenders or transactions. The market was in an adaptation period after the price change, and trading was light [2]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 153,300 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading was average. The spot premiums of various refined nickel brands were stable or slightly down. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 41,972 (1,700) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 285,282 (624) tons [2]. Strategy - If Indonesia's quota policy is strictly implemented, it will gradually affect nickel ore supply and support prices. In the short term, due to high inventories and increased production of wet - process nickel, prices may show a "volatile upward + repeated game" trend. The recommended strategy is to mainly conduct range operations and go long on dips [1][3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 15, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 13,985 yuan/ton and closed at 14,415 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 489,832 (+275,816) lots, and the open interest was 145,444 (-4,171) lots. The price showed a "rushing high and then falling back + wide - range shock" pattern, driven by the expectation of reduced nickel ore quotas in Indonesia. There was a game between cost - side drivers and weak demand and inventory pressure, and capital games intensified [3][5]. - **Spot**: Driven by the futures market, spot prices continued to rise, but downstream acceptance was low, and trading was light. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,350 (+450) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was 14,300 (+500) yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 30.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,012.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Prices may continue wide - range volatility. After the digestion of policy expectations, weak demand fundamentals and high inventory pressure may lead to a price correction. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, avoid chasing high prices, and consider going long on dips. The unilateral strategy is neutral [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, while BR is rated cautiously bullish [12] Core Viewpoints - The decline in the operating rate of downstream tire factories led to a weakening of spot prices mainly for Thai mixed rubber. This week, spot prices are expected to stabilize slightly with the rebound of the tire factory operating rate. Due to the overseas seasonal peak season, the pressure on domestic arrivals remains high, suppressing spot prices. In the off - season of downstream demand, domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The raw material preparation of overseas upstream factories may support raw material prices, and the cost - side support for rubber is expected to continue. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of downstream tire factories [12] - The upstream Maoming Petrochemical plans to restart on January 24. Recently, there have been no changes in upstream facilities, and the supply this week remains stable. With the rise in the price of upstream butadiene, the profit of butadiene rubber has been compressed close to the break - even point, which may limit the short - term increase in private production, slightly easing the supply - side pressure. The operating rate of downstream tires has rebounded, but factory orders are average, and there are no bright spots in demand. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not obvious, and it is expected to follow the upstream butadiene raw material price and remain strong [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 12,190 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,920 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,845 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - Import: In December 2025, China imported a total of 953,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. In 2025, China imported 8.525 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [2] - Automobile production and sales: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In the whole year of 2025, the production and sales of automobiles were 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million vehicles for the first time, setting a historical high [2][4] - Global natural rubber: The ANRPC's November 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in November would decrease by 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the consumption would decrease by 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] - Tire exports: From January to November, China's automobile tire exports were 751,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; the export value was 126.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [3] - Tire factory operation: Last week, the production scheduling of most domestic tire factories did not run normally, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. The shipment was slow, and the inventory reduction rhythm was lower than expected. This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to recover. With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, the overall output will increase. Some enterprises will continue to control production flexibly to control finished product inventory, which will limit the recent increase [3] - Natural rubber export: In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were 198,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.4% [5] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the RU basis was - 295 yuan/ton (+15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 995 yuan/ton (-15), the NR basis was 602 yuan/ton (+49); the whole latex was 15,700 yuan/ton (-150), the mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), the 3L spot was 16,100 yuan/ton (-100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,920 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,900 yuan/ton (-150) [6] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 60.88 Thai baht/kg (+0.23), Thai latex was 58.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), Thai cup lump was 52.30 Thai baht/kg (-0.50), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.90 Thai baht/kg (+0.70) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.02% (+7.52%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.53% (+8.75%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 568,173 tons (+19,829), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,256,792 tons (+24,259), the RU futures inventory was 104,490 tons (+3,900), and the NR futures inventory was 56,952 tons (-1,007) [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On January 15, 2026, the BR basis was - 340 yuan/ton (+60), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,550 yuan/ton (+0), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 12,100 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 11,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,550 yuan/ton (-50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 684 yuan/ton (-43) [9] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.68% (+0.54%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,040 tons (+1,270), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+550) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The number of initial jobless claims in the US has cooled, and precious metals continue to fluctuate at high levels. The market risk sentiment has increased, and the demand for gold investment may slightly strengthen. The gold price is expected to be mainly fluctuating and strengthening in the near term, and the silver price is also expected to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to continue to narrow [1][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 215,000, the lowest level since November last year. The four-week moving average dropped to 205,000, a two-year low. Trump has no plan to fire Powell for now and tends to choose the next Fed chairman between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On January 15, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 1,041.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,035.20 yuan/gram, a change of -0.52% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,035.98 yuan/gram, up 0.08% from the afternoon closing. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 23,488.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,665.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -0.43% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 1,463,056 lots, and the open interest was 344,468 lots. The night session closed at 23,089 yuan/kilogram, up 1.87% from the afternoon closing [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 15, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.169%, a change of +0.043% from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.609%, a decrease of 1.7 BP from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Position and Trading Volume of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2602 contract, the long position changed by -7,964 lots compared with the previous day, and the short position changed by -890 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 392,878 lots, a change of -2.23% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2604 contract, the long position changed by 678 lots, and the short position changed by 2,006 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 3,117,047 lots, a change of 14.39% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,074.23 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,242 tons, a decrease of 79 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 1.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -750.38 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 45.67, a change of -0.09% from the previous trading day, and the foreign gold-silver ratio was 50.86, a change of -4.76% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 15, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 45,450 kilograms, a change of -31.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,202 kilograms, a change of -19.09% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 300 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 1,020 yuan/gram and 1,045 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram and 24,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] Options - Options are on hold [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The price of lead is currently in a state of shock, and the downstream of the lead variety may experience a slight increase in starting operations after the New Year's Day. However, if subsequent orders remain sluggish, some enterprises may consider reducing their loads or arranging holidays again. Meanwhile, the supply of the ore end remains relatively tight, and the processing fee is still at a low level. Therefore, the current lead price may oscillate between 16,980 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Operations can carry out buy and sell hedging as needed within the above range [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On January 15, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.33/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,375 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -200 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,175 yuan/ton, and 10,375 yuan/ton respectively [2] Futures Market - On January 15, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,455 yuan/ton and closed at 17,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 88,441 lots, an increase of 40,261 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 78,429 lots, an increase of 7,992 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,680 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,585 yuan/ton and closed at 17,710 yuan/ton, a 0.88% increase compared to the afternoon closing price of the previous day [3] Inventory Situation - On January 15, 2026, the total inventory of SMM lead ingots was 33,000 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of January 15, the LME lead inventory was 211,400 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons compared to the previous trading day [4] Market Transactions - According to SMM news, the SMM1 lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. Smelters in Henan Province quoted prices at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and the discount of traders' quotations widened to a discount of 220 - 180 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; smelters in Hunan Province quoted prices at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders quoted prices at a discount of 50 - 0 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead or a discount of 240 - 200 yuan/ton for the SHFE 2602 contract for ex-factory; holders in Yunnan Province quoted prices at a discount of 300 yuan/ton for SMM1 lead for ex-factory. The inventory digestion of lead ingots in smelters was slow. Some holders actively widened the discount to sell goods, but the downstream's enthusiasm for taking delivery was poor. Some holders continued to transfer lead ingots to social warehouses, and the overall trading in the spot market was relatively light [3]

伊朗局势有所放缓，但港口开始去库 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤510元/吨（-10），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润340元/吨（+18）；内地甲醇价格方面， 内蒙北线1835元/吨（-3），内蒙北线基差162元/吨（+13），内蒙南线1865元/吨（+0）；山东临沂2210元/吨（+7）， 鲁南基差137元/吨（+22）；河南2055元/吨（+0），河南基差-18元/吨（+15）；河北2055元/吨（+0），河北基差42元/ 吨（+15）。隆众内地工厂库存450950吨（+3270），西北工厂库存271510吨（+1010）；隆众内地工厂待发订单224768 吨（-12703），西北工厂待发订单133500吨（-16500）。 甲醇日报 | 2026-01-16 港口方面：太仓甲醇2240元/吨（-17），太仓基差-33元/吨（-2），CFR中国268美元/吨（+0），华东进口价差-37元/ 吨（-1），常州甲醇2310元/吨；广东甲醇2240元/吨（-5），广东基差-33元/吨（+10）。隆众港口总库存1435250吨 （-101948），江苏港口库存765789吨（-65189 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, in the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies should be the main strategy as its fundamentals are weak, mainly focused on inventory reduction, and it is susceptible to macro - sentiment and policy - side impacts [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8790 yuan/ton and closed at 8730 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton (0.46%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 230720, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 14, 2026, was 11140, a change of 12 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton [1]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the PV VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase the short - term demand for polysilicon. However, due to high inventory accumulation, the market focuses on inventory reduction, and demand transmission is blocked [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly. The silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed a marginal weakening trend. The subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weakening tendency [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the case of both supply and demand reduction, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and PV industry chain prices, price support is obvious. Short - term range - based operations are recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 48580 yuan/ton and closing at 48670 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 47798 (48439 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 12703 [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.20 (with a month - on - month change of - 1.30%), silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW (with a month - on - month change of 13.11%), polysilicon weekly production was 23800.00 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.80%), and silicon wafer production was 10.52GW (with a month - on - month change of 3.34%) [4]. Strategy - The recent implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax - rebate for the PV industry may stimulate short - term polysilicon export rush, with an expected boost in demand, but it may come at the cost of overdrafting medium - and long - term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed last week, the expectation of coordinated price support was dashed. The overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies is the main strategy. The main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and short - term range - based operations are recommended [6].

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents an overview of recent events and market conditions across multiple industries, including production, service, upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. It also includes price and data updates for various commodities and industries, indicating market trends such as price fluctuations and changes in production and consumption indicators. 3) Summary by Directory A. Macro - Events - **Production Industry**: China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation held its 2026 annual work conference, emphasizing the implementation of major aerospace projects, industrial transformation, and the development of strategic and future industries [1] - **Service Industry**: In 2025, the annual social financing scale increment was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year. The central bank decided to cut re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points from January 19, 2026 [2] B. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continued to decline, while egg, zinc, and nickel prices rose [3] - **Mid - stream**: PX had a high operating rate, while polyester and PTA had low operating rates. Power plant coal consumption was at a low level [4] - **Downstream**: Second and third - tier city commercial housing sales increased, and the number of domestic flights rose [5] C. Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 14, the spot price of eggs increased by 9.45% year - on - year, and the spot price of palm oil increased by 2.09% year - on - year [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of zinc increased by 0.92% year - on - year, while the spot price of nickel decreased by 1.76% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil increased by 6.65% year - on - year, and the spot price of Brent crude oil increased by 7.86% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of polyethylene increased by 3.04% year - on - year, and the spot price of urea increased by 1.01% year - on - year on January 14 [37] - **Real Estate**: The building materials composite index increased by 0.11% year - on - year on January 14, while the national concrete price index decreased by 0.01% year - on - year [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The short - term situation in Iran has eased, causing the PTA price to decline. The potential risk of the oil price has not been completely eliminated, and the poor performance on the demand side has also dragged down the oil price. PX, PTA, PF, and PR are neutral in the short - term, and it is advisable to buy on dips for hedging after a pullback in the medium - term [1][2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The TA main contract spot basis is - 64 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +6 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 412 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan/ton). The main contract's on - the - board processing fee is 333 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of +2 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN was 337 US dollars/ton (a month - on - month change of - 1.00 US dollars/ton) in the previous last trading day. Due to the improvement of PX profitability, there is an expectation of further supply increase. Under the weakening fundamentals, the PXN has retreated to below 350 US dollars/ton, but the medium - term expectation of PX is still good [2] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Not elaborated in the content Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The near - end PTA plants have gradually resumed operation. The polyester maintenance plan has been announced, but the short - term decline is limited, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is not significant [2] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Not elaborated in the content Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester operating rate is 90.8% (a month - on - month increase of 0.9%). The weaving load continues to decline. After the end of November, domestic orders have started to weaken rapidly, and the inventory of grey fabrics has also started to accumulate rapidly. The polyester load has not changed significantly, but the maintenance plans around the Spring Festival have been announced one after another, and the average monthly load in January is expected to drop to around 88% [2] PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is - 60 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 35 yuan/ton). Recently, direct - spun polyester staple fibers have been fluctuating and consolidating following the raw materials, with weak demand. The processing margin is maintained in the range of 900 - 1000. Some direct - spun polyester staple fiber plants have announced Spring Festival maintenance, but the current maintenance intensity is limited [2] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 497 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 66 yuan/ton). Recently, there have been both maintenance and restart of bottle chips, and the load has not changed significantly. The overall inventory reduction before the Spring Festival has been smooth, and the market spot supply has slightly decreased. However, due to the rapid price increase in the early stage and the price remaining firm near the phased high, most downstream customers are on the sidelines, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. The processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [3]