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化工日报:青岛港口库存继续回升-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 06:02
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, recent cooling in China may accelerate the end of the tapping season in Yunnan, reducing the output of RU deliverable products. Hainan has good weather with expected raw material growth. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, but the south is affected by rainfall, limiting glue output. Cup - rubber production may increase. Domestic dark - colored rubber may continue to accumulate inventory. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand structure may favor the widening of the spread between RU and NR and the reverse - arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For cis - butadiene rubber, some upstream devices have changes such as restarts and shutdowns for maintenance. The supply is expected to remain abundant as private enterprises' production profits improve and operating rates rise. Downstream demand lacks highlights, and the upside potential of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,395 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025: The export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports: The volume was 7.74 million tons, up 3.6% year - on - year; the value was 134.8 billion yuan, up 2.6% year - on - year. By quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, up 4% year - on - year. Automobile tire exports from January to October were 6.85 million tons, up 3.3% year - on - year; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025 were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, down 20% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, up 22% year - on - year; latex exports were 556,000 tons, up 10% year - on - year. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, up 6% year - on - year. Standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, down 19% year - on - year; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, up 330% year - on - year; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, up 70% year - on - year [3] - In October 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of "double - increase". From January to October, the cumulative retail volume of passenger cars was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: RU basis was - 420 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (+30), NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (+40.00); whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (+50), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+50). STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (+5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (+50) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.37 Thai baht/kg (-1.42), Thai glue was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup - rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.85), the spread between Thai glue and cup - rubber was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (-0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (-2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (-3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (-68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+504) [6] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 24, 2025: BR basis was - 95 yuan/ton (-10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,607 yuan/ton (+13) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (-90), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [9]
油脂日报:油脂缺乏指引,承压持续震荡-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 06:01
油脂日报 | 2025-11-25 油脂缺乏指引,承压持续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8486.00元/吨,环比变化-64元,幅度-0.75%;昨日收盘豆油2601合约8168.00 元/吨,环比变化-22.00元,幅度-0.27%;昨日收盘菜油2601合约9778.00元/吨,环比变化-38.00元,幅度-0.39%。现 货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨,环比变化-150.00元,幅度-1.74%,现货基差P01-36.00,环比变化-86.00 元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格8360.00元/吨,环比变化-20.00元/吨,幅度-0.24%,现货基差Y01+192.00,环比变 化+2.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10100.00元/吨,环比变化-70.00元,幅度-0.69%,现货基差OI01+322.00, 环比变化-32.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:美国农业部(USDA)公布数据,民间出口商报告对中国出售123000吨大豆,于2025/2026年 度交货。美国大豆、玉米的市场年度始于9月1日。据外媒报道,咨询机构AgRural周一表示,截至上周四, ...
FICC日报:美联储鹰鸽对立加剧,关注美国9月PPI数据-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 06:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [4] - The Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in December, and the change in market expectations has impacted short - term overseas assets [3] - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be strengthened, but the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has boosted market sentiment and economic expectations [2] Summary by Related Content Domestic Economic Situation - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5% [2] - On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs [2] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry also slowed down [2] - On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies [2] - On November 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan [2][6] - On November 24, the A - share market fluctuated with reduced trading volume, and the military industry sector soared [2] International Economic Situation - Multiple Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest - rate cut, while Fed Governor Waller supports a cut and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious approach [3] - The US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, the highest in four months, with the service sector accelerating and the manufacturing sector slowing [3] - The US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, the largest increase since April, but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth declined [3] - The Eurozone's November manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.7, unexpectedly falling below the boom - bust line, with manufacturing in Germany and France deteriorating [3] - The EU Council approved the EU's 2026 annual budget, with a total budget commitment of 192.8 billion euros [3][7] Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - The long - term supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ announcing an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worthy of attention [4] - In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US talks concluded, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4] - After the short - term sharp adjustment risk in the precious metals sector is cleared, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [4] International Political Events - On November 23, the US and Ukrainian delegations held talks on the US - proposed "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Geneva, Switzerland, and jointly drafted an updated peace framework text [4][7]
化工日报:伊朗限气影响,EG低位反弹-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Cross - period: EG2601 - EG2605 reverse spread. Cross - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Due to the impact of Iran's gas restrictions, EG rebounded from a low level. The price of the EG main contract and the spot price in the East China market both increased. The production profit of ethylene - based and coal - based synthetic gas - based EG decreased. The domestic ethylene glycol load decreased from a high level, the overseas device changes were limited, the polyester load support was okay but the orders weakened marginally [1][2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3884 yuan/ton (up 76 yuan/ton, +2.00% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 3900 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton, +1.35% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in the East China market was 32 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 70 dollars/ton (down 9 dollars/ton), and the production profit of coal - based synthetic gas - based EG was - 1101 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton) [1] International Spread - The report shows a chart of the international spread of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [20] Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - The polyester load was supported by low inventory, but the orders weakened marginally. The report provides data on the sales and production of filaments and staple fibers, as well as the operating rates of polyester, direct - spun filaments, polyester staple fibers, and polyester bottle chips [2][21][28] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (unchanged), and according to Longzhong data, it was 63.3 tons (up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week were 9.5 tons, and at the auxiliary ports were 1.4 tons, which was slightly lower than neutral. The overall inventory was expected to remain stable with a slight decrease [2]
航运日报:关注马士基12月第二周报价以及是否有船司宣涨12月下半月价格-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:59
航运日报 | 2025-11-25 关注马士基12月第二周报价以及是否有船司宣涨12月下半 月价格 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation:马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第一周价格1610/2520;HPL -SPOT 12月上半月船期报价2335-2535 美元/FEU,12月下半月价格3535美元/FEU。 MSC+Premier Alliance:MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465;ONE 12月上半月价格1565/2435;HMM上海-鹿特丹12 月上半月船司价格1468/2506; YML 12月上半月报价 报价1450/2400。 Ocean Alliance:CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月下半月船期报价1585/2745,12月上半月船期报价介于3445-3545美元/FEU, 12月下半月船期报价3945-4045美元/FEU;EMC 11月下半月船期报价1855/2810,12月上半月价格2005/3110;OOCL 12月上半月1480/2535。 地缘端:加沙城西北部以色列残余部队发生爆炸。加沙人道主义基金会:在加沙的紧急任务已"完成"。 动态供给:11月份剩余2周 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:绝对价格回落刺激社会库存下滑-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:59
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [8] - Alumina: Neutral [8] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Long spread on SHFE aluminum [8] Core Viewpoints - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is mainly in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory has decreased, and the future consumption is expected to be optimistic. There is a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. - The spot market price of alumina is basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The cost support needs to be tested, and the social inventory continues to increase. The procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7]. Summary by Category Important Data Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,360 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of East China aluminum is 0 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central Plains A00 aluminum is 21,260 yuan/ton, and the spot premium and discount has changed by - 10 yuan/ton to - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,240 yuan/ton, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium and discount has no change compared to the previous trading day, remaining at - 115 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 21,305 yuan/ton, closed at 21,380 yuan/ton, with a change of - 85 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,455 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,295 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 187,943 lots, and the position was 288,083 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 24, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, with a change of - 8,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warrant inventory was 69,283 tons, with a change of - 125 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 545,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 24, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,835 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,770 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,860 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,910 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,935 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 24, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,717 yuan/ton, closed at 2,736 yuan/ton, with a change of 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change of 0.11%. The highest price reached 2,754 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,707 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 252,047 lots, and the position was 388,713 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 24, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil primary aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,200 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 57,900 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,111 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 211 yuan/ton [5]. Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum - In the current macro vacuum period, the aluminum price is in a volatile trend after the decline. The downstream acceptance willingness has increased, and the spot discount has begun to repair. The social inventory decreased on Monday, and the future inventory reduction trend is worth looking forward to. The inventory absolute value is still low, which is difficult to have a negative impact on the price. The future consumption is expected to be optimistic, the interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The price decline caused by the current macro sentiment provides a good long - term buying and hedging opportunity, and attention should be paid to whether the inventory reduction expectation before the Spring Festival can be fulfilled [6]. Alumina - Xinjiang carried out a regular tender for 10,000 tons of alumina spot, with the arrival price of 3,120 - 3,130 yuan/ton, and the spot market price was basically stable. There are few bullish factors in the fundamentals. The bauxite price is firm, domestic mines are facing environmental protection pressure in the short term, and the supply of imported mines is increasing, so the sentiment towards the price has weakened. The price has fallen below the marginal highest cash cost, but the cost support needs to be tested without large - scale production cuts. The social inventory continues to increase, and the electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material reserves, so the procurement demand is expected to decline later. However, the current valuation of alumina is low, and the bauxite price has fallen to the marginal highest cost in Guinea, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [6][7].
新能源及有色金属日报:市场成交依然偏淡,铅价弱势运行-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:58
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场成交依然偏淡 铅价弱势运行 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面:2025-11-24,LME铅现货升水为-22.41美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至17075元/ 吨,SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨,SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至 17150元/吨,SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至17075元/吨,SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至17075元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨,废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨至 9975元/吨,废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10100元/吨,废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10325元/吨。 期货方面:2025-11-24,沪铅主力合约开于17195元/吨,收于17135元/吨,较前一交易日变化-30元/吨,全天交易日 成交38420手,较前一交易日变化-1713手,全天交易日持仓52888手,手较前一交易日变化-2218手,日内价格震荡, 最高点达到17230元/吨,最低点达到17115元/吨。夜盘 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:下游采购以刚需为主,铜价仍陷震荡格局-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:52
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 下游采购以刚需为主 铜价仍陷震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情: 2025-11-24,沪铜主力合约开于 85750元/吨,收于 86080元/吨,较前一交易日收盘0.49%,昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 86,080元/吨,收于 86,040 元/吨,较昨日午后收盘基本持平。 现货情况: 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 据 SMM 讯,昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价86060~86410元/吨,对当月合约均价升水85元/吨,较前日微降5元。早 盘期铜冲高回落,进口亏损扩大至近1000元/吨,跨月价差维持Contango结构。市场采购情绪受铜价波动抑制,销 售意愿增强令现货升水承压。平水铜主流成交于升水10-60元/吨,好铜资源偏紧,金川大板升水约150元/吨。湿法 铜流通减少,非注册货源成交平淡。预计今日持货商报盘有限,下游以刚需采购为主,现货将维持小幅升水格局。 重要资讯汇总: 宏观与地缘方面,国内方面,5月20日,工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、招商银行、邮储 ...
新能源及有色金属日报:沪镍价格技术性反弹,但短期依然承压-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel price is technically rebounding but remains under short - term pressure. Due to high inventory and oversupply, the nickel price is expected to remain in low - level oscillation. The stainless steel market is also facing weak demand and high inventory, and is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation as well [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2601 opened at 114,500 yuan/ton and closed at 115,530 yuan/ton, a 0.64% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 148,534 (+10,331) lots, and the open interest was 147,554 (-13,106) lots. The rise was a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. The dovish Fed statement increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, driving up metal futures. However, weak consumption and high global nickel inventory will suppress the nickel price in the long term [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, northern mines' shipments were unstable, and the latest tender prices declined slightly but remained high. The downstream nickel - iron transaction price dropped to 880 yuan/(ex - ship, tax included), and iron plants' production enthusiasm was low. In Indonesia, the November (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the mainstream premium was +26 [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan/ton from the previous day. Downstream enterprises purchased as needed, and traders were cautious. The premiums of refined nickel brands were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 33,785 (-294) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,482 (-468) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventory and unchanged oversupply, the nickel price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range operation for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On November 24, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2601 opened at 12,280 yuan/ton and closed at 12,335 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,594 (-31,040) lots, and the open interest was 162,927 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a narrow - range weakening trend, with the price fluctuating between 12,265 - 12,385 yuan/ton. The short - side was dominant, and the market was bearish [3]. - **Spot**: In the off - season, stainless steel demand was weak, the market was pessimistic, prices were lowered, but transactions remained light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 12,675 (+0) yuan/ton and 12,700 (+0) yuan/ton respectively, and the 304/2B premium was 335 - 585 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 889.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to low demand, high inventory, and a downward - moving cost center, the stainless steel price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
氯碱日报:PVC底部空间缩窄,烧碱现货跟跌-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:49
氯碱日报 | 2025-11-25 PVC: 期货价格及基差:PVC主力收盘价4496元/吨(+40);华东基差-56元/吨(-20);华南基差4元/吨(-20)。 现货价格:华东电石法报价4440元/吨(+20);华南电石法报价4500元/吨(+20)。 PVC底部空间缩窄,烧碱现货跟跌 市场要闻与重要数据 上游生产利润:兰炭价格800元/吨(+0);电石价格2805元/吨(+0);电石利润-125元/吨(+0);PVC电石法生产毛 利-848元/吨(-28);PVC乙烯法生产毛利-516元/吨(-25);PVC出口利润12.9美元/吨(+0.4)。 PVC库存与开工:PVC厂内库存31.5万吨(-0.7);PVC社会库存52.7万吨(-0.6);PVC电石法开工率80.15%(+0.58%); PVC乙烯法开工率71.31%(+1.18%);PVC开工率77.48%(+0.77%)。 下游订单情况:生产企业预售量67.6万吨(-2.3)。 烧碱: 期货价格及基差:SH主力收盘价2241元/吨(+5);山东32%液碱基差134元/吨(-68)。 现货价格:山东32%液碱报价760元/吨(-20);山东50% ...