化工日报 | 2025-07-17 供应恢复不如预期，EG震荡反弹 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4351元/吨（较前一交易日变动+29元/吨，幅度+0.67%），EG华东市场现货价 4385元/吨（较前一交易日变动-14元/吨，幅度-0.32%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）70元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。 近期浙石化计划外降负，另外沙特因电力问题几套仍在停车中，另外，卫星石化90万吨/年的乙二醇装置原计划在8 月中下旬重启，目前重启大概率会推后，整体国内外供应提升均不如预期，EG价格反弹。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-56美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为38元/吨（环比-9 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为55.3万吨（环比-2.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为48.1万吨（环比-6.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数9.6万吨，周度港口库存小幅去 库；本周华东主港计划到港总数4.5万吨，但副港到货计划集中6.5万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，检修集中期已过 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The freight rate of the container shipping index on the European line is hovering at a high level. The 8 - month contract is in a high - level shock and game for delivery, the 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation, and the 12 - month contract's freight rate is usually high, but it is affected by whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation [3][4]. - The container shipping industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, ship capacity supply, and market demand. The current situation shows fluctuations in freight rates and changes in shipping capacity [2][4]. - The trading strategies include the main contract oscillating, going long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and shorting the 10 - month contract on rallies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes vary among different shipping companies. For example, the price of Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam in Week 31 is 1855/3110, and HPL's quotes for the second half of July and the first half of August are different [1]. - Geopolitical events such as the military actions of the Yemeni Houthi rebels may impact shipping routes and freight rates [2]. - The weekly average capacity of China - European base ports in July is 303,500 TEU, and in August it is 310,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August, mostly from the OA alliance [2]. 2. Contract Analysis - 8 - month contract: The freight rate is in a high - level shock, and CMA still has a price - holding expectation in August. The estimated SCFIS from July 21st to July 28th is between 2300 - 2400 points [3]. - 10 - month contract: It is mainly for short - allocation, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August [4]. - 12 - month contract: The seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons still exists. The risk lies in whether the Suez Canal resumes navigation. Usually, the price in December is more than 10% higher than that in October [4]. 3. Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 16, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index on the European line futures is 86,287.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 122,392.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary [5]. - On July 11th, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 2099.00 US dollars/TEU, and on July 14th, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 2421.94 points [6]. 4. Ship Capacity Supply - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of now, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.194 million TEU [6]. 5. Strategies - Unilateral: The main contract oscillates. - Arbitrage: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short the 10 - month contract on rallies [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LPG industry is "sideways with a weak bias" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market has been experiencing weak and volatile trading, with a rather dull atmosphere. Fundamentally, the overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains relatively loose, especially with abundant overseas supply. The growth in US and Middle - East supplies, especially the expanded export capacity in the US after the commissioning of export terminal expansion projects, has suppressed prices in regions like FEI. In the domestic market, the arrival volume in July increased, port inventories in East China are high, and with weak profits and insufficient demand growth in the domestic chemical downstream, market prices and sentiment have been continuously suppressed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On July 16, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4570 - 4630; Northeast market, 4190 - 4380; North China market, 4425 - 4650; East China market, 4380 - 4650; Yangtze River market, 4520 - 4610; Northwest market, 3900 - 4250; South China market, 4570 - 4700 [1] - In the first half of August 2025, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane in East China were 569 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 550 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4480 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton, and butane was 4331 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of refrigerated propane were 566 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 547 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4457 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton, and butane was 4307 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Sideways with a weak bias - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,550 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 131,554 lots, and the open interest was 54,128 lots [1]. - The main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upward, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, approaching the edge of turning green, indicating a short - term correction demand. There was a bottom divergence at around 117,000 on June 23, and it is estimated that the 117,000 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 1,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased. The refined nickel futures market entered a sideways phase, with increasing downward pressure. The overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the supply glut pattern remained unchanged. Although the premium had declined recently, it was still at a high level, so the spot price supported the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [1]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,049 (- 506.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,288 (708) tons [1]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the supply glut pattern remains. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,685 yuan/ton and closed at 12,670 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,703 lots, and the open interest was 100,817 lots [2]. - The main contract of stainless steel rose and then fell again, closing with a small negative candlestick. Affected by the contract switch, the trading volume and open interest of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and the negative candlestick covering the positive candlestick last Friday indicated pressure above the 40 - day moving average. It is considered that there are two pressure levels at around 12,700 and 13,100. There was a bottom divergence at around 12,400 on June 24, so it is estimated that the 12,400 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [3]. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market raised their quotations by 50 yuan/ton in the morning, but many reduced prices to boost sales in the afternoon. The spot trading volume did not recover well, and market confidence remained insufficient. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, with most sellers' quotations at 905 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, tax - included). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,750 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 110 and 310 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 900.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The daily line of the stainless steel main contract formed a bottom divergence structure at 12,400. Wait for it to stand firm above the 40 - day moving average pressure level. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, leading to significant arrival pressure in China and a rapid accumulation of port inventories. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. Meanwhile, the Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of Nanjing Chengzhi's maintenance or load - reduction plan in late July [2]. - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of coal - based methanol has reduced supply. Although the formaldehyde industry is in a seasonal off - peak period, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. There is still sufficient demand resilience inland, and the inventory pressure on inland methanol factories is not significant. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple charts showing methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including methanol Taicang basis and main contract, basis of different regions' spot - main futures, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts [6][22]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts are provided to display the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), the import spread between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam, and CFR China [26][34]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Data shows that the total port inventory of methanol is 790,200 tons (+71,300 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory at 454,000 tons (+59,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory at 180,000 tons (+4,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory at 106,000 tons (-6,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.15% (+0.55%). The inland factory inventory is 352,340 tons (-4,560 tons), and the northwest factory inventory is 218,000 tons (-10,000 tons). The inland factory's pending orders are 243,119 tons (+21,879 tons), and the northwest factory's pending orders are 113,600 tons (+13,600 tons) [1][2]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report lists various regional price differences, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest (-280 spread - 3 yuan/ton, +3 yuan/ton), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550 spread - 141 yuan/ton, -1 yuan/ton), etc. [2]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - There are charts showing the production profits of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [55][60]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Hedge by short - selling the 09 contract at high prices. - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread at high prices. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China's economic recovery in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal stimulus and "front - loading exports", but the foundation for economic stabilization needs further consolidation. The "anti - involution" policy expectations in multiple industries are rising, and attention should be paid to the possible further strengthening of pro - growth policies at the Politburo meeting in July [1]. - After the passage of the "Big Beautiful" Act, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations, and the impact of tariff events on demand expectations needs to be monitored [1]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and a cautious attitude should be maintained towards the implementation of policy expectations, while the volatility of commodity prices may remain high [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - **Domestic Economy**: In May, domestic investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the entire real - estate chain. Exports were also under pressure. Only consumption showed resilience. China's GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. In June, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, with rapid growth in the production of new - energy vehicles and industrial robots. However, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed to 4.8% in June, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined [1]. - **Policy Expectations**: Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, and the "anti - involution" policy expectations in industries such as photovoltaic, lithium battery, and automobile have increased [1]. - **US Situation**: Trump signed the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which may increase the US government debt by $3.4 trillion in the next decade. The US has entered a stage of "easy to loosen, difficult to tighten" policies. The US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the month - on - month rate was flat. Trump has accelerated tariff negotiations, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariffs on demand expectations [1]. Commodity Market - **Domestic Supply - Sensitive Sectors**: The black and new - energy metal sectors are the most sensitive to domestic supply - side changes. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraints in the non - ferrous sector have not been alleviated [2]. - **Overseas Inflation - Benefiting Sectors**: The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from overseas inflation expectations. In the short term, the geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, and the supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term. OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, higher than expected [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: There are no short - term weather disturbances in agricultural products, and the fluctuation range is relatively limited [2]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products on dips [3]. To - Do News - **Stock Market**: On July 16, the three major A - share indices declined slightly, with the ChiNext Index rising and then falling back. Pharmaceutical and robot concept stocks were strong, while the silicone sector adjusted [1][4]. - **Interest Rate**: The President of the Dallas Fed, Logan, supports maintaining the interest rate unchanged to cool inflation and believes that if inflation and the labor market weaken, interest rate cuts may be considered [1][4]. - **Tariff and Trade**: Trump is accelerating tariff negotiations, with tariffs on some countries already determined or to be announced. The US has also launched investigations into the trade practices of some countries, and the impact of these tariff events on demand expectations needs to be monitored [1][5]. - **Energy**: The US API crude oil inventory increased last week, and the US has threatened to withdraw from the International Energy Agency due to its support for green energy [2][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral; Option strategy:暂缓 [4] Core View - The downstream has a fear of price drops, leading to sluggish trading in the spot market. The domestic ore supply remains relatively tight, but the peak - season demand is not obvious yet. The overall weakness of the non - ferrous sector also drags down the lead price. Therefore, the current operation is mainly high - selling and low - buying or waiting and seeing [1][2][4] Market News and Important Data Spot - On July 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$31.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,750 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 30.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead price decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,775 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On July 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,930 yuan/ton, closed at 16,895 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 32,614 lots, down 988 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 53,407 lots, up 740 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,945 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,855 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,900 yuan/ton, closed at 16,885 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On July 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 63,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of July 17, the LME lead inventory was 269,225 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons from the previous trading day [3]

化工日报 | 2025-07-17 缺乏驱动，PX/PTA跟随成本波动 市场要闻与数据 1、市场预期三房巷PTA新装置提前至7月17日附近投产。 2、近期市场缺乏驱动，PX/PTA跟随成本波动 市场分析 成本端，原油维持强现实、弱预期，近日原油市场消息面较为平淡，中期基本面预期依然不佳。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN254美元/吨(环比变动-0.75美元/吨）。近期在PTA基差以及加工差大幅压缩后，PTA工 厂连续出售PX压价，PXN压缩。PX当前缺乏更多的供应端利好,供需面不及前期强势,但在需求端没有明显利空的 情况下，低库存下PXN继续下降空间也有限。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 11 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费204元/吨（环比变动+27元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费364元/吨（环比变动+7元/吨），伴随主流供应商出货和下游负荷下降，同时7月PTA装置检修不多， 另外三房巷装置计划投产，PTA基差快速走低，PTA自身基本面偏弱，关注低加工费下的检修增加可能。 需求方面，聚酯开工率88.8%（环比-1.4%），内外销进入淡季，终端订单和开工加速下滑，坯布库存再度累积至高 位；聚酯 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-17 市场成交下降，轮动延续 市场分析 美国PPI温和降温。国内方面，国务院总理主持召开国务院常务会议，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作； 听取规范新能源汽车产业竞争秩序情况的汇报；听取关于2024年度中央预算执行和其他财政收支审计查出问题初 步整改情况的汇报；审议通过《国务院关于修改 <中华人民共和国外国人入境出境管理条例> 的决定（草案）》。 海外方面，美国6月PPI环比持平，同比上升2.3%；核心PPI也持平，同比上涨2.5%，为2023年底以来最小增幅。 沪指调整。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡调整，上证指数跌0.03%收于3503.78点，创业板指跌0.22%。行业方面， 板块指数涨跌互现，社会服务、汽车、医药生物、轻工制造行业领涨，钢铁、银行、有色金属、非银金融行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.4万亿元。海外市场，特朗普在谈及美联储主席鲍威尔时表示，目前没有 计划采取任何行动，也没有起草解雇信件。美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.53%报44254.78点。 期指活跃度下降。期货市场，当月合约将于明日交割，基差趋于收敛。成交持仓方面，期指的成交量和持仓 ...