黑色建材周报 | 2025-10-12 铁水产量微降，铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 本周铁矿石价格持涨运行，截止周五收盘，铁矿石主力2601合约收于795.0元/吨，周环比上涨14.5元/吨，涨幅1.86%。 Mysteel62%澳粉远期价格指数106.7美元/吨，周环比上涨3.35美元/吨，涨幅3.24%。青岛港PB粉价格788.0元/吨， 周环比上涨9.0元/吨，涨幅1.16%。 供应方面：Mysteel统计最新数据显示，本期全球铁矿石发运3279万吨，周环比减少196万吨，其中非主流发运显著 回落。本期45港铁矿石到港量为2609万吨，周环比增加248万吨。 需求方面：Mysteel调研247家钢厂高炉开工率84.27%，环比上周减少0.02个百分点，同比去年增加3.48个百分点 ； 日均铁水产量 241.54万吨，环比上周减少0.27万吨，同比去年增加8.46万吨。 库存方面：Mysteel统计，全国45港铁矿石库存总量14025万吨，环比增加12万吨；45港日均疏港量327万吨，环比 减少9万吨。 整体来看：供给方面，本周铁矿石发运高位回落，铁矿石到港量明显回升。需求方面，日均铁水产量均环比回落， 仍处于 ...

丙烯周报 | 2025-10-12 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：PL01-02逢高反套； 跨品种：无 风险 原油价格波动；上游装置检修动态；丙烷价格波动；中美贸易战影响 成本端支撑转弱，丙烯走跌 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6205元/吨（-5），丙烯华东现货价6225元/吨（-65），丙烯华北现货价6390元/吨（-80）， 丙烯华东基差85元/吨（+5），丙烯华北基差265元/吨（-20）。丙烯开工率75%（-1%），中国丙烯CFR-日本石脑油CFR203 美元/吨（+3），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR107美元/吨（-30），进口利润-352元/吨（+39），厂内库存43390吨（-1520）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率39%（+2.01%），生产利润-125元/吨（+80）；环氧丙烷开工率72%（+5%），生产利润 -344元/吨（-115）；正丁醇开工率88%（+1%），生产利润56元/吨（+49）；辛醇开工率96%（+0%），生产利润27元/ 吨（+107）；丙烯酸开工率83%（+3%），生产利润1113元/吨（+28）；丙烯腈开工率80%（+1%），生产利润-796元/ 吨（ ...

甲醇周报 | 2025-10-12 关注伊朗船货靠港影响 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 港口方面，中美贸易冲突加剧，涉伊船货被制裁风险，后续伊朗船货到江苏主流港口的靠港或受影响，港口短期 提振，关注后续进展。而现实基本面看，库存拐点仍未出现，伊朗开工仍偏高，冬检计划仍未公布，后续到港量 的边际变化主要关注涉伊船货影响程度与中美贸易冲突的进展。中国稀土出口管制后，特朗普扬言要大幅加征对 中国商品关税，中美贸易战升级对化工板块整体拖累，但由于涉伊船货受制裁风险影响，甲醇于化工板块内部跨 品种相对抗跌。 内地方面，煤头甲醇开工率再度回升，内地库存低位回升，对港口支撑有所减弱。传统下游方面，醋酸、MTBE、 甲醛开工均有不同程度回落。 策略 单边：无 跨期：MA2601-MA2605逢低做正套 港口供应方面：海外甲醇开工率73.34%（+0.00%）；中国进口甲醇周频到港量46.05万吨（+7.14），其中华东到港量 40.72万吨（+7.73），华南到港量5.33万吨（-0.59）。 内地供应方面：中国甲醇开工率89.53%（+4.50%），其中煤制甲醇开工率84.16%（+1.04%）、天然气甲醇开工率50.79 ...

农产品周报 | 2025-10-12 关税战再次升级，板块跟随宏观波动 国内方面， 受9月下旬及国庆假期期间降温降雨影响，棉花采摘较预期有所推迟，采摘进度已近1/4，但前期籽棉 水分偏高，轧花厂严控超水籽棉。棉农基本顺价交售，随着近期籽棉水分降低，机采棉收购价涨至6.1-6.2元/公斤 左右。 市场分析 宏观方面，中美贸易战在2025年10月再度升级，双方采取强硬措施互相施压：美国威胁自11月1日起对中国商品加 征100%额外关税，中国则实施稀土出口管制、对美船舶征收特别港务费等措施。国际方面，美国联邦政府已停摆 超一周，受此影响本周美棉生长周报、出口装运以及USDA月报等数据均暂停发布。由于此前USDA对于中国等增 产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，新年度全球棉市供需格局预计仍将趋于宽松。叠加当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶 段性供应压力增加，而美棉出口签约表现不佳，需求端压力仍存。中长期需关注美棉减产预期的落地情况以及美 棉出口目标的实现情况。国内方面，棉花去库速度持续偏快，商业库存降至同期低位。不过节前籽棉已经陆续开 秤，轧花厂收购心态较为谨慎，前期抢收预期落空，籽棉收购价在6.0-6.2元/公斤左右，整体套保压力 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-10-10 市场流动性概况 2025-10-09，股指板块成交7953.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.80%；持仓金额14088.84亿元，较上一交易日变动 +5.81%；成交持仓比为56.36%。 国债板块成交3438.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.58%；持仓金额7841.29亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.11%；成交 持仓比为43.61%。 基本金属板块成交3884.32亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.99%；持仓金额5216.10亿元，较上一交易日变动+6.97%；成 交持仓比为77.91%。 贵金属板块成交4302.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-14.96%；持仓金额5224.37亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.70%；成 交持仓比为106.62%。 能源化工板块成交3065.12亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.89%；持仓金额4082.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.13%；成 交持仓比为63.38%。 农产品板块成交2887.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+23.44%；持仓金额5222.98亿元，较上一交易日变动+3.59%；成 交持仓比为48.20%。 黑色建材板块成交1723 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-10-10 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2939元/吨，较前日变动+11元/吨，幅度+0.38%；菜粕2601合约2435元/吨，较前 日变动+14元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2990元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差 M01+51，较前日变动+9；江苏地区豆粕现货2900元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-39，较前日变动-1； 广东地区豆粕现货价格2910元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-29，较前日变动-1。福建地区菜粕现货 价格2630元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM01+195，较前日变动+16。 近期市场资讯，巴西外贸秘书处数据显示，9月巴西大豆出口步伐显著高于去年同期。9月份巴西大豆出口量734.1 万吨，高于去年同期的610.6万吨；日均出口量33.4万吨，同比增长20.2%。USDA季度库存报告显示，截至2025年9 月1日，美国旧作大豆库存总量为3.16亿蒲式耳，市场预期为3.23亿蒲式耳，去年同期为3.42亿蒲式耳。美国农业部 公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至20 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview Upstream - Black: Glass prices are rising [2] - Agriculture: Egg prices have significantly declined [2] - Non - ferrous: Copper prices are rising [2] Midstream - Chemical: PX operating rate has declined, while urea operating rate is rising; PX operating rate was at a high level [2] - Energy: Power plant coal consumption is at a low level [2] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have slightly recovered [2] - Service: The number of domestic flights is at a three - year high due to holidays [2] Group 2: Industry Events Production Industry - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued 4 announcements to implement export controls on items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - On October 9, three departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on the technical requirements for new energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemption from 2026 - 2027, adjusting the technical requirements for pure - electric passenger cars and plug - in (including extended - range) hybrid passenger cars [1] Service Industry - China and India will resume direct flights by the end of October this year [1] Group 3: Key Data - On October 9, the spot price of corn was 2237.1 yuan/ton, down 2.12% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.3 yuan/kg, down 12.93%; the spot price of palm oil was 9598.0 yuan/ton, up 4.03%; the spot price of cotton was 14764.2 yuan/ton, down 0.84%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.6 yuan/kg, down 3.47%; the spot price of copper was 85823.3 yuan/ton, up 7.20%; the spot price of zinc was 22140.0 yuan/ton, up 1.45% [33] - For non - ferrous metals, on October 9, the spot price of aluminum was 20970.0 yuan/ton, up 1.34%; the spot price of nickel was 124000.0 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; another spot price of aluminum was 16868.8 yuan/ton, down 0.95%; the spot price of rebar was 3174.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% [33] - For other metals, on October 9, the spot price of iron ore was 792.2 yuan/ton, down 1.94%; the spot price of wire rod was 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the spot price of glass was 15.6 yuan/square meter, up 3.45% [33] - For non - metals, on October 9, the spot price of natural rubber was 14758.3 yuan/ton, down 1.34%; the China Plastic City price index was 788.5, down 0.21% [33] - For energy, on October 9, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 62.6 dollars/barrel, down 1.42%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 66.3 dollars/barrel, down 1.25%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3762.0 yuan/ton, down 2.39%; the coal price was 791.0 yuan/ton, down 0.25% [33] - For chemicals, on October 9, the spot price of PTA was 4564.5 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the spot price of polyethylene was 7348.3 yuan/ton, up 0.02%; the spot price of urea was 1583.8 yuan/ton, down 4.31%; the spot price of soda ash was 1262.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national cement price index was 135.4, up 0.44% [33] - For real estate, on October 9, the building materials composite index was 113.0 points, down 1.22%; the national concrete price index was 91.7 points, down 0.02% [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The gap between strong expectations and weak reality in the domestic market has widened. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, with characteristics such as "slow industrial growth, weak investment, and sluggish consumption." Meanwhile, external tariff pressure has increased, and the domestic government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies [1]. - Attention should be paid to the duration of the US government shutdown. The shutdown has affected economic data releases, and there are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts [2]. - In the commodity market, focus on sectors such as gold and non - ferrous metals. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, while the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic economic pressure increased marginally in August, with weakening economic data and rising external tariff pressure. The government has introduced pro - growth policies, such as the central bank's call for strengthened monetary policy regulation and the planned use of 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments [1]. - On October 9, the A - share market had a good start, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3,900 - point mark for the first time in a decade. The non - ferrous metal sector rose, and the semiconductor industry chain was active. The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated downward, and the pharmaceutical and biological sectors adjusted. Treasury bonds rebounded, and commodities such as gold and copper rose [1]. - The US government shutdown entered its second week on October 8, affecting economic data releases. There are differences among Fed officials on the magnitude of interest rate cuts. US economic data showed mixed performance, with the manufacturing and service PMIs slightly declining in September, while retail sales and new home sales performed well [2]. Commodity Market - The black sector is still affected by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The non - ferrous sector is still facing long - term supply constraints and is recently boosted by global easing expectations [3]. - OPEC + announced that eight oil - producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has come into effect [3]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worthy of attention. Agricultural products are driven by tariff and inflation expectations in the short term, but still need signals from the fundamentals [3]. - Due to the US government shutdown and continuous central bank purchases, gold is expected to continue to strengthen, and attention should be paid to the game at key points [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Key News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly announced export controls on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items, which will take effect on November 8, 2025 [5]. - On October 9, the People's Bank of China conducted 1.1 trillion yuan in fixed - quantity, interest - rate - tendered, multiple - price - winning买断式 reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months [5]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.73%. More than 3,100 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, and the trading volume exceeded 2.67 trillion yuan [5]. - Most Fed officials said that continued easing this year may be appropriate, and they emphasized the upside risks to inflation. Employment faces relatively high downside risks [5]. - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to 153, up 0.2% on the day, for the first time since February [2][5]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza officially came into effect at noon on October 9 [3][5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-10 沪伦除汇比持续走弱，海外宏观成行情主导因素 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价20960元/吨，较上一交易日变化240元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-40元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价20960元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-40元/吨；佛 山A00铝价录20890元/吨，较上一交易日变化240元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-105元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-10-09日沪铝主力合约开于20900元/吨，收于21090元/吨，较上一交易日变化335元/吨，最 高价达21095元/吨，最低价达到20830元/吨。全天交易日成交159723手，全天交易日持仓203280手。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-10-09氧化铝主力合约开于2886元/吨，收于2875元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-8元/ 吨，变化幅度-0.28%，最高价达到2904元/吨，最低价为2848元/吨。全天交易日成交187736手，全天交易日持 仓294498手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-10-09保太民用生铝采购价格166 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the trading data of various index options on October 9, 2025, including trading volume, PCR (Put - Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), to reflect the market conditions of the index option market. 3. Summary by Directory I. Option Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 819,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 956,500 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,214,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 46,800 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,961,900 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 103,600 contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 117,100 contracts; and the total trading volume of CSI 1000 options was 300,500 contracts [1]. - The detailed one - day trading volume data of index ETF options are as follows: the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 1,665,600 contracts (896,100 call contracts and 769,500 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,612,400 contracts (815,300 call contracts and 797,100 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,767,100 contracts (848,500 call contracts and 918,600 put contracts); the total trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 103,600 contracts (68,000 call contracts and 35,700 put contracts); the total trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 1,961,900 contracts (988,600 call contracts and 973,300 put contracts); the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 103,600 contracts (22,600 call contracts and 34,200 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 1,900,000 contracts (118,300 call contracts and 71,700 put contracts); the total trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 300,500 contracts (156,400 call contracts and 144,100 put contracts) [21]. II. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.41, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; the position PCR was reported at 0.86, with a month - on - month change of + 0.06. Similar data for other options are also provided, such as the turnover PCR of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 0.38, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04; the position PCR was 1.18, with a month - on - month change of + 0.10, etc. [2]. - The detailed one - day PCR data of index ETF options are presented in the table, including turnover PCR and its month - on - month change, and position PCR and its month - on - month change for each type of option [36]. III. Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 17.76%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.55%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 17.94%, with a month - on - month change of - 1.08%; and so on for other options [3]. - The detailed one - day VIX data of index ETF options are shown in the table, including the VIX value and its month - on - month change for each type of option [52].