Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Neutral" [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils oscillated and declined yesterday due to the adjustment of Indonesia's biodiesel policy, which suppressed part of the global oil consumption, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern and putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8578.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 170 yuan or 1.94% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 7938.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62.00 yuan or 0.78%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 8828.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 121.00 yuan or 1.35% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8580.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150.00 yuan or 1.72%, with a spot basis of P05 + 2.00, an increase of 20.00 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8330.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.83%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 392.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9680.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70.00 yuan or 0.72%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 852.00, an increase of 51.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Import Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (March shipment) was 521 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (May shipment) was 527 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (February shipment) was 1193 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (April shipment) was 1126 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (February shipment) was 1050 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (April shipment) was 1030 dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (February shipment) was 463 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (February shipment) was 446 dollars/ton, an increase of 1 dollar/ton [2] Import Premiums - The import premium of Mexican Gulf soybeans (February shipment) was 235 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of US West Coast soybeans (February shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import premium of Brazilian port soybeans (February shipment) was 172 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel [2] Export Volume - According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15 was 690,642 tons, a 17.53% increase compared to the same period last month [2] Group 5: Strategy - The strategy is "Neutral" [4] Group 6: Figures - The report includes 30 figures related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources mainly from Steel Union Data and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with a risk of correction due to large long - short divergence, poor price transmission to the cell end, and the price remaining at a two - year high, despite strong downstream energy storage demand and a certain de - stocking state this week. Attention should be paid to whether downstream consumption can drive the value - chain transmission of lithium carbonate [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 163,840 yuan/ton and closed at 163,220 yuan/ton, with a - 1.31% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 431,256 lots, and the open interest was 443,942 lots (452,583 lots the previous day). The current basis was - 3,980 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,205 lots, a change of 47 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 156,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, a - 4,000 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 152,000 - 159,000 yuan/ton, also a - 4,000 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,155 US dollars/ton, a - 45 US dollars/ton change. Due to regulatory policies and high prices, the price of lithium carbonate has been in a callback state, but there was a certain rebound at the end of yesterday's trading due to de - stocking. The current spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a - 263 - ton change from the previous week. Among them, smelter inventory was 19,727 tons (+1,345 tons), downstream inventory was 35,652 tons (- 888 tons), and other inventory was 54,300 tons (- 720 tons) [2] Strategy - Given the large long - short divergence, strong downstream energy storage demand, and a certain de - stocking state this week, but poor price transmission to the cell end and the price remaining at a two - year high, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to show a wide - range oscillation pattern with a risk of correction. Attention should be paid to whether downstream consumption can drive the value - chain transmission of lithium carbonate [3] Trading Recommendations - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. There are no recommendations for inter - delivery spread, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, the upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the focus will return to the fundamentals of pure benzene and styrene [3]. - The fundamentals of pure benzene have improved, with downstream开工率 bottoming out and rebounding. However, the port inventory is still at a historical high, and the sustainability of the improvement in downstream开工率 needs to be monitored [3]. - For styrene, the port inventory is still being depleted, the recovery rate of styrene开工率 is slow, and the downstream开工率 has increased, with the inventory pressure of ABS gradually alleviating [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis and main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts; also styrene's main basis and main contract, EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts [8][12][17] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures cover naphtha processing fee, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various spreads and profits related to pure benzene and styrene in different regions [19][22][29] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory and operating rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [35][38][40] IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures display the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][53] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products of pure benzene [59][61][70] 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long and hedge EB2602 and BZ2603 at low prices [4] - Basis and inter - period: No strategy [4] - Cross - variety: No strategy [4]

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Spot prices have shown some weakness, and the valuation of the 02 contract is gradually becoming clear. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the off - season nature of the 04 contract, and the recent volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase. Maersk's attempt to resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will affect the expectations of more distant contracts [5][6][7] - The shipping industry is taking an important step towards recovery as Maersk resumes navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after two - year disruptions to global maritime trade caused by Houthi attacks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of January 15, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European route futures was 61,764.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 46,912.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1719.00, 1202.70, 1421.80, 1524.90, 1111.00, and 1351.00 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK4 price is $1695/2730, WEEK5 is $1510/2420; HPL's January second - half shipping schedule is $1585/2535, February first - half is $1585/2535. Many other shipping companies' quotes are also provided [1][2][3] - The current estimated first - phase delivery settlement price corresponds to a spot price of approximately $2700 - 2800/FEU (initially estimated to be around 1900 points). The second - phase corresponds to an SCFIS preliminary estimate of $2500 - 2600/FEU. The final - phase index is currently unclear. If Maersk's WEEK6 price drops to $2200/FEU, the final February contract delivery settlement price may be around 1700 points [6] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for different ship sizes from 2026 - 2029 are provided. Overall, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of ships over 17000+TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [4] - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in January was 328,400 TEU, in February was 277,300 TEU, and in March was 281,600 TEU. February had 4 TBNs and 6 blank sailings, and March had 4 blank sailings and 5 TBNs [5] 3.4 Supply Chain - Maersk will resume navigation through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal after the security situation stabilizes in the region, and will restart an independently - operated route service MECL on January 26, with the first - voyage ship departing from Salalah Port in Oman [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries, further affecting shipping companies' pricing strategies. It is necessary to monitor whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than usual [7]

央行降息25bp，国债期货大多收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力不大， 财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更加向民 生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发行提速 带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济 形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（4）金融：11月金融数据整体偏 弱，信贷 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-16 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11950元/吨，较前交易日变动-60.00元/吨，幅度-0.50%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.97元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1020，较前交易日变动+70；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.17元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.03元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1220，较前交易日变动+30；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+820，较前交易日变动-40。 据农业农村部监测，1月15日"农产品批发价格200指数"为128.19，比昨天上升0.09个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为130.74，比昨天上升0.15个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.00元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；牛肉65.70 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；羊肉62.84元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋7.81元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；白条鸡17.58 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市场分析 生猪现货价格窄幅震荡运行 ...

出厂价小幅上调，下游开工提升 尿素现货成交火爆后厂家待发充足，上调出厂价，因周末及下周部分地区雨雪天气本周整体收单尚可。供应端1月 部分气头叠加技改企业恢复，供应量增加。需求端冬腊肥和返青肥部分开始采购。淡储采购进行中。复合肥部分 地区环保解除，开工回升，采购好转。三聚氰胺装置复产，开工提升，刚需采购。农需工需好转，尿素企业出货 加快，尿素厂内库存去库，港口库存小幅去库。1月2日印度NFL尿素进口招标收26家供货商362万吨投标，最低报 价东海岸CFR426.8美元/吨、西海岸424.8美元/吨，较上一标涨5-8美元/吨，国际尿素市场情绪有所提振。印度NFL 还盘意向购150万吨，目前已预定100万吨。当前国内出口配额暂无新消息，后续持续关注出口动态、全国淡储节 奏以及现货采购情绪持续性。 尿素日报 | 2026-01-16 市场分析 价格与基差：2026-01-15，尿素主力收盘1801元/吨（-13）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1760 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1760元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1770元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤800元/吨（+0），山东基差： -41元/吨（+33） ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term focus on waiting and observing the situation in Iran [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply is marginally tightening and geopolitical tensions are rising, the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG futures price, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery also disturbs the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, and the potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 15, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market 4430 - 4470 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3910 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4230 - 4410 yuan/ton, East China market 4350 - 4550 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4800 - 5080 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, and South China market 4990 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 604 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) and 599 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4659 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton) and 4620 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 596 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) and 591 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4597 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan/ton) and 4559 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - Recently, the overseas market has been strong, and the PG futures price has been oscillating strongly, but it is difficult to break through without a large - scale supply interruption. Due to the non - escalation of the Iranian situation, the futures price fell yesterday, and the spot price remained stable. The market is "strong overseas and weak domestic", and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG futures price. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market. In the medium term, the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied, and the potential upside risk comes from geopolitical conflicts. If the Middle East conflict escalates and Iranian LPG supply declines, domestic supply will tighten [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term focus on waiting and observing the situation in Iran; no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral trading: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View - The suspension of KZ and YP zinc delivery by the LME has limited impact. The brand's inventory in LME is only 600 tons and it's mainly for direct downstream sales, and delivery rights will be restored after procedure updates. Downstream consumption is entering the off - season, social inventory accumulation is slow, smelter raw material availability days are low, short - term TC is hard to rise, smelting comprehensive profit is difficult to repair, January production may be lower than expected, supply pressure is expected to decrease, zinc price has limited downside even with emotional pullbacks [4] Group 3: Key Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium: -$14.32/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price: changed by 840 yuan/ton to 25410 yuan/ton, spot premium: 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price: changed by 860 yuan/ton to 25410 yuan/ton, spot premium: 35 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price: changed by 840 yuan/ton to 25350 yuan/ton, spot premium: -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On 2026 - 01 - 15, SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24740 yuan/ton, closed at 25090 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan/ton from previous trading day), with trading volume of 502358 lots and positions of 142972 lots, intraday high: 25650 yuan/ton, intraday low: 24475 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of 2026 - 01 - 15, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory: 11.84 tons (down 0.05 tons from previous period). As of the same date, LME zinc inventory: 106700 tons (down 25 tons from previous trading day) [3]