Group 1: Market Analysis - US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Powell, criticizing the lack of a clear agenda for interest rate cuts and urging a 100 - 150 basis - point cut by the end of the year [1] - US new home sales in August reached an annualized total of 800,000, far exceeding the expected 650,000, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%, and the inventory of new homes for sale dropped to 490,000 [1] - The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and exempting EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and parts, generic drugs and raw materials, and some metals and ores from tariffs since September 1 [1] Group 2: Futures Quotes and Volumes - On September 24, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 861.34 yuan/gram, closed at 860.00 yuan/gram, with a 0.53% change from the previous trading day's close; the overnight session closed at 853.06 yuan/gram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] - On September 24, 2025, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 10,442.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 10,397.00 yuan/kilogram, with a 0.46% change from the previous trading day's close; the overnight session closed at 10,349 yuan/kilogram, down 0.46% from the afternoon close [2] Group 3: US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On September 24, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.147%, down 0.19 BP from the previous trading day; the 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.541%, up 0.01 BP from the previous trading day [3] Group 4: Position and Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on SHFE - On September 24, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, long positions changed by 35 hands and short positions by 202 hands; the total trading volume of gold contracts was 451,118 hands, with a 13.19% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions changed by 2 hands and short positions by - 2 hands; the total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,293,850 hands, with a - 2.87% change from the previous trading day [4] Group 5: Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position increased by 2.29 tons to 996.85 tons, and the silver ETF position increased by 100.22 tons to 15,469.12 tons [5] Group 6: Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On September 24, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was - 13.06 yuan/gram and for silver was - 966.68 yuan/kilogram; the price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on SHFE was about 82.72, with a 0.07% change from the previous trading day, and the overseas price ratio was 85.46, with a 0.45% change [6] Group 7: Fundamental Data - On September 24, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 48,028 kilograms, down 9.65% from the previous trading day; the silver trading volume was 631,748 kilograms, up 15.21% from the previous trading day [7] - The gold delivery volume was 16,124 kilograms and the silver delivery volume was 48,870 kilograms [7] Group 8: Investment Strategies - Gold: Cautiously bullish. Short - term price may fluctuate, but the long - term logic of being a substitute for US dollar assets remains. The Au2512 contract may fluctuate between 840 yuan/gram and 870 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Similar macro - logic to gold, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow with the recovery of heavy - industry demand in the easing cycle. The Ag2512 contract may fluctuate between 10,250 yuan/kilogram and 10,650 yuan/kilogram [8][9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels - Options: Postpone

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pig market will continue to follow the supply - demand logic. With the decline in corn and soybean meal prices, the pig - raising cost decreases, and there is still profit in self - breeding and self - raising. Falling piglet prices make it cost - effective to raise pigs by purchasing piglets, which is expected to increase future pig supply. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] - The egg market has weakening demand. Terminal consumers are resistant to high prices, food companies' procurement demand declines after the peak season, and all sectors have abundant inventories. The large inventory pressure may suppress the spot price [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market News and Important Data - Pig futures: The closing price of the live hog 2511 contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (+0.51%) from the previous trading day [1] - Pig spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.89 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.29 yuan/kg, unchanged [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices on September 24: The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 118.78, up 0.50 points; the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.70, up 0.58 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.60 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; beef was 66.16 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; mutton was 61.63 yuan/kg, up 0.1%; eggs were 8.49 yuan/kg, unchanged; white - striped chicken was 17.96 yuan/kg, up 1.1% [1] Market Analysis - Last week, the spot price of pigs dropped significantly, and piglet prices also fell. Some piglets in certain areas fell below the cost line. The meeting targeting groups had little impact on the market. The future of the pig market will still follow the supply - demand logic [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market News and Important Data - Egg futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3,056 yuan/500 kg, down 9 yuan (-0.29%) from the previous trading day [3] - Egg spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.47 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Shandong, it was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 3.31 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan [3] - On September 24, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.73 days, up 0.02 days (2.82% increase) from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory remained unchanged at 0.98 days [3] Market Analysis - In terms of demand, last week, terminal consumers were resistant to high prices, causing egg prices to decline from the high level. Traders were cautious in purchasing, and all sectors accumulated inventory passively. The peak - season production of food companies is coming to an end, and the procurement demand has decreased significantly. Supermarkets and e - commerce platforms are digesting their previous inventory, and overall demand is weakening [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Report Core View - The report focuses on the new energy installation progress in the power industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status, and key data in various industries [1] Industry Overview Production Industry - On September 24, 2025, President Xi Jinping announced China's new national independent contributions at the United Nations Climate Change Summit. By 2035, China aims to reduce the net greenhouse gas emissions in the entire economy by 7% - 10% from the peak, increase the share of non - fossil energy consumption in the total energy consumption to over 30%, increase the total installed capacity of wind and solar power to more than 6 times that of 2020, striving for 36 billion kilowatts, reach a forest stock volume of over 240 billion cubic meters, make new energy vehicles the mainstream of new vehicle sales, cover major high - emission industries in the national carbon emissions trading market, and basically build a climate - resilient society [1] Service Industry - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued 13 policy measures to promote service exports, aiming to boost the high - quality development of service trade. These measures include leveraging existing funds, enhancing the guiding fund's role, optimizing tax - free procedures, and increasing export credit insurance support. Support is also provided for international data service businesses in areas like the Lin - gang New Area of the Shanghai Free Trade Pilot Zone and the Hainan Free Trade Port, and for establishing international data and cloud - computing centers in relevant areas [2] Upstream - In infrastructure, cement prices have increased; in agriculture, the prices of eggs and palm oil have declined [2] Midstream - The polyester operating rate in the chemical industry has slightly decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have declined; in the service sector, the number of domestic flights has remained stable [3] Key Data Agricultural Products - On September 24, the spot price of corn was 2,288.6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.12%, the spot price of eggs was 7.8 yuan/kg with a - 3.13% change, the spot price of palm oil was 9,040 yuan/ton with a - 4.50% change, the spot price of cotton was 15,090.8 yuan/ton with a - 1.50% change, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg with a - 0.81% change [37] Metals - On September 24, the spot price of copper was 80,060 yuan/ton with a - 0.67% change, the spot price of zinc was 21,824 yuan/ton with a - 1.45% change, the spot price of aluminum was 20,693.3 yuan/ton with a - 1.02% change, the spot price of nickel was 122,633.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, the spot price of aluminum was 17,031.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.18% change, the spot price of螺纹钢 was 3,195 yuan/ton with a 1.49% change, the spot price of iron ore was 813.7 yuan/ton with a 0.76% change, the spot price of wire rod was 3,375 yuan/ton with a 0.75% change, the spot price of glass was 14.3 yuan/square meter with no change [37] Others - On September 24, the spot price of natural rubber was 14,983.3 yuan/ton with a - 0.72% change, the China Plastic City price index was 790.7 with a - 0.33% change, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 63.4 dollars/barrel with a 0.17% change, the spot price of Brent crude oil was 67 dollars/barrel with a - 0.70% change, the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3,802 yuan/ton with a - 1.81% change, the coal price was 788 yuan/ton with a 1.03% change, the spot price of PTA was 4,572.9 yuan/ton with a - 1.64% change, the spot price of polyethylene was 7,350 yuan/ton with a - 0.63% change, the spot price of urea was 1,655 yuan/ton with a - 1.05% change, the spot price of soda ash was 1,262.5 yuan/ton with no change, the national cement price index was 134.1 (compared to 114.3) with a 2.68% change, the real - estate building materials comprehensive index had a 0.24% change, and the national concrete price index was 91.7 with a - 0.08% change [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, it gives a neutral rating with a mid - term cautious and bearish outlook for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly during the peak season. The cost - end oil price is fluctuating, and the PX supply is increasing while the demand is weakening. PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and the demand side of the polyester industry has limited improvement and high inventory [1][2][4]. - The demand for PF has slightly improved, and short - term supply and demand conditions are better than the raw material side, but its upward momentum is weak. The processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 79 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 5 yuan/ton), and the PTA spot processing fee is 159 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 304 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of - 12 yuan/ton) [2]. - Relevant figures include TA main - contract & basis & inter - period spread trend, PX main - contract trend & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12]. II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PXN is 212 dollars/ton (with a环比 change of - 6.88 dollars/ton). Relevant figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [1][18][21]. III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Relevant figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, and overseas start - up will further increase in the short term. China's PTA load is rising from a low level. Relevant figures show the load of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the load of PX in China and Asia [1][29][36]. V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. Relevant figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [2][37][41]. VI. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (with a环比 change of - 0.2%), and it is expected to remain stable with a slight increase in September. Relevant figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [2][49][65]. VII. PF Detailed Data - The spot production profit of PF is 230 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 21 yuan/ton), and the load is slightly increasing. Relevant figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [3][76][89]. VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The spot processing fee of PR is 497 yuan/ton (with a环比 change of + 23 yuan/ton). Relevant figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [3][91][104]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral for PX/PTA/PF/PR, and cautiously bearish in the medium term [4]. - Cross - variety: Go long on PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [5]. - Cross - period: None [5].

农产品日报 | 2025-09-24 消费持续疲软，猪价延续弱势 生猪观点 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 市场分析 综合来看，上周现货价格迎来了较大的跌幅，同时仔猪价格也同步下跌，部分地区的仔猪跌破成本线。针对集团 的会议对市场并未造成太大影响，生猪未来仍将保持供需逻辑。玉米和豆粕的继续下跌使得生猪养殖成本继续下 降，从目前盘面价格来看自繁自养仍有一定利润空间，随着仔猪价格的下跌，当下抓仔猪育肥的成本具有优势， 预计未来生猪供应会继续增加，重点关注政策端的变化情况。 谨慎偏空 风险 政策变化 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2511合约12665元/吨，较前交易日变动-130.00元/吨，幅度-1.02%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.82元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH11+155，较前交易日变动+140；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH11+215，较前交易日变动+20；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.29元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.17元/公斤，现货基差LH11-375，较前交易日变动-40。 据农业农村部监测，9月22 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-09-24 制造业中游开工回暖 中观事件总览 生产行业： 1）国家能源局23日发布8月份全社会用电量等数据。8月份，全社会用电量10154亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.0%。7、8月份连续两个月全社会用电量超万亿千瓦时，这在全球也是首次。8月当月，工业用电量达到5909亿千 瓦时，占比近6成，全国制造业用电量同比增长5.5%，为今年以来最高，其中，钢铁、建材、有色、化工等原材料 行业用电量复苏势头明显。 服务行业： 1）上海市公安局、上海市市场监督管理局、上海市教育委员会联合发布《情况通报》：针对市民反映 的上海绿捷实业发展有限公司（下称"绿捷公司"）9月15日供应本市部分学校午餐中虾仁炒蛋存在问题，市委、市 政府高度重视，相关部门迅速介入调查。绿捷公司涉嫌瞒报食品安全相关信息，公安机关已立案侦查，并控制相 关人员。2） 9月23日4时30分左右，"伊斯坦布尔桥"轮从浙江宁波舟山港北仑港区启程，驶往英国最大集装箱港 口弗利克斯托港。这标志着全球首条中欧北极集装箱快航正式通航。该航线将连通中欧主要港口，其中宁波舟山 港与英国最大集装箱港口弗利克斯托港的直通段，单程运输时效大幅缩短至18天。 数 ...

3、\t2025年10月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷591美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷578美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4623元/吨，涨4元/吨，丁烷4522元/吨，涨5元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-09-24 中东9月LPG发货量显著增加 市场分析 1、\t9月23日地区价格：山东市场，4510-4570；东北市场，3970-4330；华北市场，4350-4650；华东市场，4300-4550； 沿江市场，4460-4750；西北市场，4500-4605；华南市场，4498-4750。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年10月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷598美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷585美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4678元/吨，涨5元/吨，丁烷4576元/吨，涨4元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 PG盘面触及4500元/吨后出现大幅回调，背后反映LPG自身供需格局并未实质性逆转，海外供应仍较为充裕。其中， 中东9月LPG发货量显著增加。参考Kpler船 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-24 冶炼厂挺价情绪较重 买卖双方呈现拉锯 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-09-23，LME铅现货升水为-45.16美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至-15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至17000元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/吨至17000元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-25元/吨至17000元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-75元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10350元/吨。 期货方面：2025-09-23，沪铅主力合约开于17190元/吨，收于17085元/吨，较前一交易日变化-40元/吨，全天交易日 成交48758手，较前一交易日变化24388手，全天交易日持仓63941手，手较前一交易日变化36509手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17190元/吨，最低点达到17 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to continuous drone attacks on Russian refineries by Ukraine, Russian diesel exports have dropped below 700,000 barrels per day, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have soared. Russia is considering a diesel export ban, which may only target non - producers' exports (10% of total diesel exports), and will support European diesel crack spreads, keeping them high in Q4 [2]. - Oil prices will experience short - term range - bound fluctuations and mid - term short positions [3]. 3. Key Points by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.13 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.81% increase; Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose by $1.06 to $67.63 per barrel, a 1.59% increase. SC crude oil's main contract rose 1.47% to 482 yuan per barrel [1]. - Trump said at the UN General Assembly that if Russia is unwilling to reach an agreement, the US is ready to impose tariffs, called on Europe to stop all energy purchases from Russia, and urged the UN to take anti - Russian oil measures with the US [1]. - The OECD predicts that global economic growth will be 3.2% in 2025 (previously 2.9%) and 2.9% in 2026 (unchanged from the previous forecast). US economic growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 (previously 1.6%) and be 1.5% in 2026 (unchanged) [1]. - Russia may extend the gasoline export ban and is discussing the possibility of a diesel export ban [1]. Investment Logic - Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have led to large - scale refinery shutdowns, a significant drop in Russian diesel exports, and soaring domestic fuel prices. Russia's potential diesel export ban will support European diesel crack spreads [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will move in a range; Mid - term: Short positions are recommended. Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events. Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3].

苹果好货不足，红枣供需乏力 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约8288元/吨，较前一日变动-3元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-688，较前一日变动+3；陕西洛川70# 以上半商 品晚富士价格4.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01+1312，较前一日变动+3。 农产品日报 | 2025-09-24 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，西部晚富士零星脱袋，目前因降雨推迟尚未大面积脱袋，早熟富士基本结束，其他中熟品种正常 交易，多按货给价。山东产区部分红将军陆续进入后期，小单车客商青睐价格较低的红将军货源，库存老富士受 到其它苹果品种冲击，交易不快。陕西延安洛川产区早熟富士70#以上市场主流价格3.8-4.1元/斤，一般货3.5-3.7元 /斤。中秋王70#以上主流4.2-4.3元/斤，秦脆70#以上主流4.8-5.2元/斤。山东栖霞产区果农80#以上统货2.1-3.0元/斤， 80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤。山东栖霞产 ...