化工日报 | 2026-01-09 下游轮胎开工率继续示弱 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约16120元/吨，较前一日变动-60元/吨；NR主力合约13065元/吨，较前一日变动-85 元/吨；BR主力合约12195元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15800元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15080元/吨，较前一 日变动-20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1920美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1865 美元/吨，较前一日变动-10美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11950元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月下降1.5%；天胶消费量 料降1.4%至124.8万吨，较上月下降0.9%。前11个月，全球天胶累计产量料增2%至1337.5万吨，累计消费量料降1.7% 至1393.2万吨。 据隆众资讯了解，上周期，轮胎样本企业产能利用率走 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 8, 2026, including the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy chemical, agricultural product, and black building material sectors, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3) Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each sector, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][2][8] II. Stock Index Plate - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 749.548 billion yuan, a +4.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1533.63 billion yuan, a - 0.01% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.50% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 402.447 billion yuan, a - 9.52% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 801.06 billion yuan, a +0.04% change; the trading - holding ratio was 49.67% [1] IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metal plate had a trading volume of 1510.586 billion yuan, a +8.85% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 812.67 billion yuan, a - 1.28% change; the trading - holding ratio was 206.26%. The precious metal plate had a trading volume of 1199.595 billion yuan, a - 6.41% change; the holding amount was 504.791 billion yuan, a - 2.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 347.81% [1] V. Energy Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy chemical plate was 555.846 billion yuan, a - 13.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 466.087 billion yuan, a +1.99% change; the trading - holding ratio was 114.46% [1] VI. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 363.816 billion yuan, a +0.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 597.014 billion yuan, a +0.85% change; the trading - holding ratio was 58.70% [1] VII. Black Building Material Plate - The trading volume of the black building material plate was 401.552 billion yuan, a +12.35% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 329.968 billion yuan, a +1.38% change; the trading - holding ratio was 111.09% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no mention of the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel variety, although the current fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, with frequent positive policies from Indonesia and a long period of bottom - side oscillation, it is likely to be in a high - level oscillation state, but its trend depends on the overall sector sentiment. For the stainless - steel variety, the short - term trend highly depends on the performance of Shanghai nickel, and in the medium - to - long - term, attention should be paid to the improvement of spot trading and policy implementation rhythm [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2602 opened at 146,500 yuan/ton and closed at 136,440 yuan/ton, a - 6.14% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 1,520,564 (+388,308) lots, and the open interest was 128,055 (-4,900) lots. The sharp decline was due to the Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister not disclosing the specific amount of 2026 nickel - mine RKAB approval and the decline of the precious - metal and non - ferrous sectors [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel - ore market has limited resources. The 1.25 nickel - ore from the Benguet mine in the Philippines was tendered at $32.5, a month - on - month increase. In January 2026 (Phase 1), the domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia increased by $0.05 - 0.08 per wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 152,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 700 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot trading improved, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained high. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 39,330 (+554) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 276,300 (+666) tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the stainless - steel main contract 2603 opened at 14,050 yuan/ton and closed at 13,675 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 424,667 (+136,211) lots, and the open interest was 114,820 (-4,171) lots. The contract showed a high - opening, low - closing, and oscillating - downward trend. The stainless - steel futures are easily affected by the price fluctuations of Shanghai nickel, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of the Indonesian nickel - ore quota policy [3]. - **Spot**: The futures decline led to a limited callback in some spot prices, and the trading volume also decreased significantly. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,900 (+0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 130 - 330 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 12.50 yuan per nickel point to 960.0 yuan per nickel point [3][4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. There are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. It is recommended to control positions, trade based on key support levels, and be vigilant against the risk of linked callbacks [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The inventory inflection point of lithium carbonate has emerged, and it remains strongly volatile. The current price is greatly affected by news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion speed continues to slow down, and there is a divergence between the futures and spot markets. Short - term sharp increases require caution regarding callback risks [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 8, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 140,860 yuan/ton and closed at 145,000 yuan/ton, with a 2.46% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 654,824 lots, and the open interest was 514,467 lots, up from 506,520 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis is - 9,720 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,770 lots, a change of 590 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 132,000 - 145,000 yuan/ton, a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 130,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,825 US dollars/ton, a change of 70 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Despite the sharp decline in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors yesterday, lithium carbonate remained strong. It was mainly affected by supply - side disruptions and macro news. Some lithium salt plants in Sichuan and Qinghai are still under maintenance, and on January 7, relevant ministries held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry [2]. - According to SMM's latest statistics, the spot inventory is 109,942 tons, a month - on - month increase of 337 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 715 tons; the downstream inventory is 36,540 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,458 tons; other inventories are 52,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,080 tons [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - PE: Despite a short - term rebound in the PE price driven by the sharp rise in coking coal and coke futures prices and cost - side disturbances, the improvement in the PE supply - demand fundamentals is limited. There is still supply pressure due to new device production and expected increase in low - cost imported goods, and the demand side remains weak as downstream industries are in the off - season. However, the short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The PP price continues to rebound due to the warming market sentiment, supply reduction expectations, and cost - side support. But there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of upstream device maintenance, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [3] - Strategy: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both LLDPE and PP. Continue to monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance, as the short - term supply - demand contradictions have not been improved, while geopolitical tensions are increasing cost - side disturbances and the strengthening of the coal sector is driving up market sentiment [4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Key Data - Price and Basis: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,628 yuan/ton (-14), and that of the PP main contract is 6,484 yuan/ton (-2). The LL spot prices in North and East China are 6,520 yuan/ton (+20) and 6,600 yuan/ton (+70) respectively, and the PP spot price in East China is 6,250 yuan/ton (+0). The LL basis in North and East China is - 108 yuan/ton (+34) and - 28 yuan/ton (+84) respectively, and the PP basis in East China is - 234 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Upstream Supply: The PE operating rate is 83.7% (+0.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-1.3%) [1] - Production Profit: The PE oil - based production profit is 263.3 yuan/ton (+88.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 256.7 yuan/ton (+88.6), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 765.6 yuan/ton (+49.8) [1] - Import and Export: The LL import profit is 21.6 yuan/ton (-179.3), the PP import profit is - 300.5 yuan/ton (-21.3), and the PP export profit is - 34.1 US dollars/ton (-2.6) [1] - Downstream Demand: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 37.9% (-1.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.0% (+0.6%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.9% (-0.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.2% (+0.0%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: The short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand fundamentals improvement is limited. The supply pressure persists, and the demand side is weak. The short - term inventory pressure has been slightly alleviated [2] - PP: The price rebounds, but there are still supply - demand contradictions. The sustainability of the short - term rebound depends on the scale of device maintenance, and the price rebound space is limited [3] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see for LLDPE and PP. Monitor the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4] - Inter - period: No strategy provided - Inter - variety: No strategy provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream is still in a low - operation state during the off - season. Pure benzene maintains a deep negative basis and high inventory pressure, and the arrival pressure in China remains. The downstream operation shows differentiation. Styrene's port inventory has not met the original expectation of inventory replenishment, and the operation at the bottom is still slowly recovering. The downstream is in the off - season of operation [1][3] Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene and styrene's basis and inter - period spread are presented, such as pure benzene's main basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and styrene's main basis, etc [8][13][17] II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Information about production profits of pure benzene and styrene, and their internal - external spreads are shown, including naphtha processing fee, FOB and CFR price differences in different regions, and import profits [20][21][29] III. Inventory and Operation Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Data on the inventory and operation rates of pure benzene and styrene are provided, like pure benzene's East China port inventory and operation rate, and styrene's East China port inventory, commercial inventory, and operation rate [35][38][40] IV. Operation and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Information on the operation and production profits of styrene's downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) is given, including their operation rates and production profits [48][50][52] V. Operation and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Data about the operation and production profits of pure benzene's downstream products (caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, etc.) are presented, including their operation rates and production profits [59][63][71] Market News and Important Data - **Pure Benzene**: The main basis is - 102 yuan/ton (+57), port inventory is 31.80 tons (+1.80 tons), CFR China processing fee is 138 dollars/ton (+5 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 130 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), US - Korea spread is 165.8 dollars/ton (-1.0 dollars/ton), and East China spot - M2 spread is - 190 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton). Downstream production profits and operation rates vary [1] - **Styrene**: The main basis is 103 yuan/ton (+56 yuan/ton), non - integrated production profit is 138 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) with expected gradual compression. East China port inventory is 132,300 tons (-6,500 tons), and commercial inventory is 77,300 tons (-6,000 tons). The operation rate is 70.9% (+0.7%) [1] - **Styrene's Downstream Hard Rubber**: EPS production profit is 109 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 291 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is - 1,074 yuan/ton (-39 yuan/ton). Their operation rates also change [2] Market Analysis - **Pure Benzene**: Upstream, the US turning Venezuelan crude oil into compliant oil supply suppresses oil prices, and attention should be paid to whether the US will take military action against Iran. Pure benzene has a deep negative basis and high inventory pressure. The downstream shows weak performance during the off - season, and the operation is differentiated [3] - **Styrene**: The port inventory has not met the inventory replenishment expectation, the operation at the bottom is still slowly recovering, and the downstream is in the off - season [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: None - **Basis and Inter - Period**: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high - **Cross - Variety**: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602 [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Pig: Neutral [3] - Egg: Cautiously Bearish [6] Core Views - The overall market sentiment is stable, with an expected increase in pig slaughter in the middle of the month. The price of pigs is mainly stable with narrow adjustments in some areas, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking sentiment may support the pig price. The consumption boost from southern pickling demand is declining. Attention should be paid to the slaughter situation of farmers in the middle of the month [2] - The spot price of eggs has risen slightly, and the growth rate has narrowed. The pressure on egg - poultry inventory has continued to decline, but the absolute quantity is still high. The recent price increase is mainly supported by downstream bottom - fishing and pre - Spring Festival bullish stocking sentiment. Attention should be paid to its sustainability [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2603 contract yesterday was 11,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 65.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.55% [1] - Spot: The price of external ternary pigs in Henan was 12.85 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 13.19 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.01 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.98 yuan/kg, a change of + 0.10 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural product wholesale prices: On January 8, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 128.94, down 0.17 points from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 131.56, down 0.19 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; beef was 65.96 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 62.84 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.58 yuan/kg, up 0.9%; white - striped chicken was 17.85 yuan/kg, up 0.6% [1] Market Analysis - The national pig price is mainly stable with narrow adjustments in some areas. The price in the north has declined, while the price in the east is relatively the highest in the country. The slaughter of breeding enterprises has increased, and there is still a certain bullish expectation. After the price of large pigs in the north declined, the slaughter of small farmers has increased. The pickling demand in the south is gradually ending, and the consumption boost has continued to decline recently. The impact of the epidemic has decreased after the price increase. The pre - Spring Festival stocking sentiment may support the pig price, and the price may be relatively resistant to decline. Attention should be paid to the slaughter situation of farmers in the middle of the month [2] Strategy - Neutral [3] Egg Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2603 contract yesterday was 3009 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 2.00 yuan from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.07% [3] - Spot: The egg spot price in Liaoning was 3.07 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.07 yuan from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 3.30 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.96 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On January 8, 2026, the national production - link inventory was 0.84 days, unchanged from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1 day, also unchanged [4] Market Analysis - The spot price of eggs has risen slightly, and the growth rate has narrowed compared with the previous few days. The production areas are relatively strong, and the sales areas mainly follow the increase. After the price of culled old chickens has risen recently, the willingness of farmers to cull has loosened compared with the previous period, but there has not been a large - scale centralized culling. The pressure on egg - poultry inventory has continued to decline, but the absolute quantity is still high. After the egg price has risen for several consecutive days, the consumption support has begun to slow down. The recent price increase is mainly supported by downstream bottom - fishing and pre - Spring Festival bullish stocking sentiment. Attention should be paid to its sustainability [5] Strategy - Cautiously Bearish [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Consumption shows signs of turning to the off - season but still has rigidity. Social inventory accumulation is slow, and the spot market supply remains tight with firm spot premiums. After the absolute price drops, downstream still maintains rigid - demand procurement. Domestic concentrate TC has stopped falling, while imported concentrate is still slightly declining. Although smelters' raw material inventory has increased after winter storage, the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month - on - month. There is a possibility that the output in January will fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and there is optimism about future consumption. The interest - rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The current market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited [5] Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is - $45.20 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 100 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,090 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 120 yuan/ton to 24,100 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On January 8, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,190 yuan/ton, closed at 23,975 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 151,811 lots, and the position was 83,786 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,230 yuan/ton, and the lowest reached 23,845 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 8, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 118,500 tons, an increase of 3,800 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Options: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of lead is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise of the non - ferrous sector, the demand in the off - season becomes weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,850 yuan in January 2026 [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 8, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$43.10 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 225 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -125 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,050 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,400 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On January 8, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,725 yuan/ton and closed at 17,335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 495 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 87,520 lots, an increase of 4,179 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 46,028 lots, a decrease of 5,981 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,760 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,265 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,350 yuan/ton and closed at 17,290 yuan/ton, a 0.26% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price increased by 125 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In different regions, the quotes of smelters and traders varied. Due to the continuous strengthening of lead prices, downstream enterprises were cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading was weak [2] Inventory - On January 8, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 20,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons compared with the same period last week. As of January 8, the LME lead inventory was 226,450 tons, a decrease of 3,975 tons compared with the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: EG2603 - EG2605 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The EG market continued to accumulate inventory this week. The production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton, and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton. The domestic supply load of ethylene glycol has risen to over 70%, and the import pressure will ease after February. The downstream demand is weakening, and the polyester load has declined [1][2] - The current price is not high, but the downstream implicit inventory has reached a high level, and the inventory at the port is rising. The pressure of new production is large, and the inventory accumulation pressure from January to February is still large, so the rebound space is limited [3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the main EG contract was 3846 yuan/ton, with a change of - 33 yuan/ton (- 0.85%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 3698 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.40%), and the spot basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit margin of ethylene - based EG was - 82 dollars/ton (a net increase of 1 dollar/ton), and that of coal - based syngas - based EG was - 843 yuan/ton (a net increase of 24 yuan/ton) [1] International Price Difference - No specific data on international price differences were provided in the given text Downstream Sales and Operating Rate - The weaving orders have weakened marginally, the load has declined rapidly, and the polyester load has declined due to weakened profitability [2] Inventory Data - As of January 8, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 690,000 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons from Monday. According to CCF data, the inventory in the main ports of East China was 844,000 tons (a net increase of 25,000 tons), and according to Longzhong data, it was 645,000 tons (a net increase of 28,000 tons). The planned arrivals at the main and auxiliary ports this week are relatively high, and inventory accumulation at the main ports is expected to continue [1][2]