Market Analysis - Trump said he has selected a candidate for the next Fed Chair, with possible candidates including current Fed governors Waller and Bowman, former Fed governor Warsh, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, and BlackRock executive Reid [1] - The "small non - farm" ADP weekly employment data showed that as of the four weeks ending November 1st, the average weekly employment in the US private sector decreased by 2,500. As of the week ending October 18th, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continued jobless claims rose slightly to 1,957,000 [1] Futures Quotes and Volumes - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 932.26 yuan/gram and closed at 918.52 yuan/gram, a change of - 1.18% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 922.54 yuan/gram and closed at 929.84 yuan/gram, a 1.23% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On November 18, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,975.00 yuan/kg and closed at 11,699.00 yuan/kg, a change of - 1.96% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 1,157,926 lots, and the open interest was 322,401 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,760 yuan/kg and closed at 11,949 yuan/kg, a 2.14% increase from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 18, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.112%, a change of - 2.71 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasuries was 0.55%, a + 1.27 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Position and Volume Changes of Precious Metals on SHFE - On the Au2512 contract on November 18, 2025, the long positions changed by - 3,999 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 619 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts the previous trading day was 445,767 lots, a change of - 38.50% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by - 1,214 lots, and the short positions changed by 7,720 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts the previous trading day was 1,758,456 lots, a change of - 37.01% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,041.43 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,218 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was 5.44 yuan/gram, and for silver, it was - 872.72 yuan/kg [6] - The price ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on SHFE was about 78.51, a 0.80% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver price ratio was 79.97, a 1.79% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On November 18, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 59,742 kg, a change of - 27.20% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 623,148 kg, a change of - 17.90% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 1,650 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to turn dovish marginally. The gold price is expected to be in a slightly bullish oscillation pattern in the near term, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 910 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish. Silver and gold are both showing price stabilization, but due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is slightly stronger than gold. The silver price is also expected to maintain a slightly bullish oscillation pattern, with the Ag2602 contract oscillating between 11,600 yuan/kg and 12,100 yuan/kg [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver price ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Put on hold [9]

油脂日报 | 2025-11-19 巴西大豆新作预计创新高，油脂震荡运行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2601合约8708.00元/吨，环比变化+28元，幅度+0.32%；昨日收盘豆油2601合约8320.00 元/吨，环比变化+38.00元，幅度+0.46%；昨日收盘菜油2601合约9874.00元/吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.06%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元，幅度+0.93%，现货基差P01-58.00，环比变化+52.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8500.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元/吨，幅度+0.35%，现货基差Y01+180.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10220.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.10%，现货基差OI01+346.00， 环比变化-4.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，Abiove的预测与国家供应公司（Conab）上周发布的1776万吨产量预估基本一致。 巴西2026年大豆出口量预计达到1.11亿吨的新高，而2025年为1.09亿吨，向下修正50万吨。 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after the reduction in production in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon valuation is currently low, and if there is policy support, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both sides have weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9050 yuan/ton and closed at 8980 yuan/ton, a change of - 80 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 248,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 43,402 lots, a change of - 620 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon at 9400 - 9500 (- 50) yuan/ton, 421 silicon at 9700 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price at 8800 - 8900 (0) yuan/ton [1]. - The reported price of organic silicon DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 (0) yuan/ton. The guiding price of organic silicon DMC was 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton in the past week compared to before the joint price - support on November 12. Other downstream product prices also rose, with the 107 glue price at 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton, raw rubber price at 14,000 yuan/ton, and silicone oil at 14,700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of about 1700 - 2200 yuan/ton in the past week [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts when the price is low. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 52,000 yuan/ton and closing at 52,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 1.67% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 137,091 (136,243 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 173,704 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly, with N - type material at 49.70 - 54.90 (0.00) yuan/kg and n - type granular silicon at 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 26.70 (a month - on - month change of 3.09%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.42GW (a month - on - month change of 5.14%), polysilicon weekly output at 26,800.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.74%), and silicon wafer output at 13.12GW (a month - on - month change of - 2.45%) [4]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.27 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm at 1.60 (- 0.03) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers at 1.28 (- 0.02) yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and the output is expected to decline. The prices of battery cells and components remained stable [6]. - On November 17, Liu Hanyuan, the chairman of Tongwei Group, made a public statement on polysilicon capacity integration. The polysilicon capacity integration plan, known as "integration," is being promoted by upstream giants and industry associations. The plan is expected to establish a fund of about 70 billion yuan, using a "debt - assumption" method of leveraging 70 billion with 10 billion for acquisitions to achieve capacity control and clearance [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [8].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 现货成交呈现区域性差异 铅价呈现震荡偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-18，LME铅现货升水为-16.88美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至15.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-100 元/吨至17225元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-125元/吨至17150元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-125元/吨至17200元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变 化-25元/吨至9975元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10100元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化-75元/吨至 10325元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-18，沪铅主力合约开于17365元/吨，收于17230元/吨，较前一交易日变化-125元/吨，全天交易 日成交55068手，较前一交易日变化-19523手，全天交易日持仓69126手，手较前一交易日变化-5459手，日内价格 震荡，最高点达到 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Due to the high inventory and oversupply, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Stainless steel is also expected to stay in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, high inventory, and a downward - shifting cost center [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main nickel contract 2512 opened at 116,420 yuan/ton and closed at 114,840 yuan/ton, a - 1.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 117,416 (+14,501) lots, and the open interest was 99,682 (-7,659) lots. The main nickel contract continued its downward trend and may continue to oscillate to find the bottom in the short term. The Fed's internal division on a December interest rate cut and the rising dollar index (to 99.6) pressured commodity prices and led to the decline of nickel prices [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was fair, and prices remained stable. In the Philippines, there were tenders for 1.4% nickel ore from Eramen and 1.25% nickel ore from Benguet. Downstream nickel - iron prices were falling, and iron mills were mainly in a wait - and - see mode and had a price - pressing mentality. In Indonesia, the November (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price fell by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/wet ton, and the mainstream premium was +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [2]. - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 119,000 yuan/ton, a 1,500 - yuan/ton drop from the previous trading day. As prices continued to fall, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises increased, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands mostly rose. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 4,050 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 35,826 (+799) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 257,694 (+5,604) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - It is recommended to mainly use range - bound operations for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On November 18, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2601 opened at 12,415 yuan/ton and closed at 12,365 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 92,400 (-44,713) lots, and the open interest was 177,321 (-4,171) lots. The main stainless - steel contract showed a low - level oscillation, with prices oscillating between 12,300 - 12,500 yuan/ton, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, indicating an initial short - term downward trend. Due to weak downstream demand, high inventory, and the continuous decline of nickel prices, there were still no signs of a rebound in stainless - steel prices [3]. - Spot prices continued to decline to historical lows, but the market was pessimistic, and trading did not improve significantly. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,675 (-25) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,700 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 365 to 615 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 3.00 yuan/nickel point to 899.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - A neutral stance is recommended for single - sided trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4].

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 避险情绪急剧发酵，风险资产集体承压 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，关 注后续经济情况。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一 步促进消费政策措施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。11月18日，A股低开低走，创业板指跌超1%。AI应用方向逆势大 涨；商品多数下跌，焦煤跌3.86%，集运指数(欧线)跌2.88%，沪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the stock market, the decline in risk appetite is beneficial to the bond market. Meanwhile, the divergence in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the increase in global trade uncertainties add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3] - Repo rates are rising, and Treasury futures prices are fluctuating, with a neutral outlook for the 2512 contract. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the decline in the basis of the 2512 contract. For hedging, as there is medium - term adjustment pressure, short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, and China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.10% [9] - Monthly economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 0.64 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.61% [10] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 99.59, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05 and a growth rate of 0.05%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1132, with a month - on - month increase of 0.008 and a growth rate of 0.12%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.26%; DR007 is 1.52, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.02%; R007 is 1.51, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.08, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.27% [10] 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.49 yuan, 105.92 yuan, 108.50 yuan, and 116.53 yuan respectively, with daily price changes of 0.01%, 0.03%, 0.03%, and 0.06% respectively [3] - The average net basis of TS, TF, T, and TL was - 0.025 yuan, - 0.044 yuan, - 0.016 yuan, and - 0.091 yuan respectively [3] 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, and the growth rate slowed down for three consecutive months [2] - At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality in the real economy and a return of current deposits to time deposits [2] - On November 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 407.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2] - The main term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.525%, 1.518%, 1.550%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repo rates have recently rebounded [2] 3.4 Spread Overview No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are multiple figures related to various spreads, such as the inter - period spread trends of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [7][8] 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [7][37][48] 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [7][50][54] 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [7][57][59] 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary information is provided, but there are figures related to the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [7][64][70]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-19 关注铝价超预期回调后的机会 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21460元/吨，较上一交易日变化-170元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-30元/吨， 较上一交易日变化-30元/吨；中原A00铝价21340元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-10元/吨至-150元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录21320元/吨，较上一交易日变化-160元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-15元/吨至-165元/ 吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-11-18SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2840元/吨，山东价格录得2775元/吨，河南价格录得 2865元/吨，广西价格录得2910元/吨，贵州价格录得2935元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得320美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2025-11-18氧化铝主力合约开于2817元/吨，收于2780元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-20 元/吨，变化幅度-0.71%，最高价达到2822元/吨，最低价为2775元/吨。全天交易日成交264359手，全天交易日 持仓405010手。 铝合金价格方面：2025-11-18保太民用生铝采购价格16700元/吨， ...

流动性日报 | 2025-11-19 市场流动性概况 2025-11-18，股指板块成交7236.23亿元，较上一交易日变动+8.74%；持仓金额13454.31亿元，较上一交易日变动 +1.02%；成交持仓比为53.29%。 国债板块成交4129.84亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.68%；持仓金额8656.68亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.16%；成交持 仓比为46.89%。 基本金属板块成交4921.12亿元，较上一交易日变动-6.85%；持仓金额5931.31亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.55%；成 交持仓比为97.61%。 贵金属板块成交7272.75亿元，较上一交易日变动-38.29%；持仓金额4390.55亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.51%；成交 持仓比为209.18%。 能源化工板块成交3871.93亿元，较上一交易日变动-5.85%；持仓金额4579.15亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.35%；成 交持仓比为76.23%。 农产品板块成交3064.28亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.74%；持仓金额6043.82亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.66%；成交 持仓比为48.64%。 黑色建材板块成交2274.48 ...

油料日报 | 2025-11-19 豆一受成本传导致产区震荡，花生需求清淡油厂观望 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2601合约4149.00元/吨，较前日变化-29.00元/吨，幅度-0.69%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A01-49，较前日变化+49，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北产区新季大豆行情整体平稳，贸易商多表示走货一般，但因受政策指导价托底，短期内 豆价仍有一定支撑力，其中高蛋白品种价格走势相对更强。目前农户销售意愿尚可，多根据市场行情调整出货节 奏，部分存在一定惜售心理。与此同时，粮食贸易企业收购较为谨慎，多数企业已有一定库存。黑龙江哈尔滨市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价 2.02元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一 日持平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.03元/斤，较前一日持平；黑龙江绥化 ...