Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - With the clearing of negatives such as the A - share market re - entering a high - volatility range and the passing of the fastest economic growth stage, and the emergence of positives like the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, the bond market stabilized and strengthened in October. In November, the bond market environment has improved, and it has entered a stage of accumulating positives. If there are phased disturbances leading to market over - adjustment, it is recommended to actively seize allocation opportunities [9][62]. - The recommended arbitrage strategies include: for the cash - and - carry strategy, there are positive arbitrage opportunities and reverse arbitrage should be participated in cautiously; for the basis strategy, focus on shorting the contract basis; for the inter - delivery strategy, focus on shorting the current - quarter contract and going long on the next - quarter contract; for the inter - variety strategy, recommend the flattening strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. October Market Review (1) Domestic Bond Market - In October, treasury bond futures fluctuated and strengthened, mainly stimulated by the resurgence of Sino - US trade disputes and the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fell to below 1.7944% at the end of the month, down 6.72bp from the beginning of the month. Treasury bond futures of all varieties closed up, with the 5 - year treasury bond futures having a relatively smaller increase after duration adjustment. The yield curve showed a bull - flattening feature, and the basis of treasury bond futures further narrowed [11][13][18]. (2) Overseas Market - In October, US Treasury yields first declined and then rose, with a slight decline for the whole month. The US federal government shutdown at the beginning of the month triggered a US dollar credit crisis, leading to the selling of US Treasuries and an increase in yields. Later, the resurgence of Sino - US trade frictions and weak employment data led to a decline in yields. At the end of the month, Powell's hawkish signal caused yields to rebound [20]. (3) Funding Situation - In October, although it was a tax - payment month, the government bond payment pressure was not large. The central bank continued to actively inject funds and announced the restart of treasury bond trading. Inter - bank liquidity was stable and loose, and funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. DR007 basically fluctuated around 1.4 - 1.43%, and the 1 - year inter - bank certificate of deposit basically remained around 1.67% and further dropped to around 1.64% at the end of the month [24]. 2. Bond Market Environment Analysis (1) Fundamental Situation - Domestic economic indicators have been weakening since June. In the third quarter, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year as expected. Exports and consumption were the main supports, while investment demand was the main drag. In October, manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, non - manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and high - frequency indicators showed that the economy continued to repair weakly [31][45][50]. (2) Policy Aspect - In October, both fiscal and monetary policies were strengthened. The government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to support projects. The central bank announced the resumption of treasury bond trading in the open market, which is a direct liquidity injection in the short term, but in the long term, there is potential pressure on the bond market if the fiscal tools drive economic improvement [57]. (3) Funding Aspect - In November, the main pressure on the funding side lies in government bond issuance and payment. Although there are large - scale maturities in the open market, the central bank is expected to continue to actively inject funds, and the liquidity pressure should be controllable [58][61]. 3. Next - Month Market Outlook (1) Market Logic and Outlook - The negatives in the bond market have basically been released, and in November, it enters a stage of accumulating positives. However, there are still uncertain disturbances such as the official release of the new regulations on fund sales fees, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the unexpected increase in government bond supply [62]. (2) Arbitrage Strategy Outlook - Cash - and - carry Strategy: There are positive arbitrage opportunities, and reverse arbitrage should be participated in cautiously. - Basis Strategy: Focus on shorting the contract basis. - Inter - delivery Strategy: Focus on shorting the current - quarter contract and going long on the next - quarter contract. - Inter - variety Strategy: Recommend the flattening strategy [8][64][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Considering planned出栏量, large pigs, piglets, and the inventory of breeding sows, pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until June next year and decline slightly in July. Year-on-year growth in pig出栏量 started in May this year and will continue until July next year. In November, the出栏量 of the breeding side may continue to increase, and the出栏 weight will increase seasonally. The concentrated entry of secondary fattening in October, combined with the release of production capacity, may create dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival [10]. - Demand side: In November, as the weather cools, the demand for curing and enema will increase slightly, and consumer demand will continue to rise. However, the overall increase will be limited. The demand for secondary fattening may decline, weakening the support for prices [10]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate as supply and demand both increase. Futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, mainly due to the potential dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, but the impact of curing and enema on demand needs to be monitored [10]. - Strategies: Futures investors are advised to hold short positions or short on rallies with stop-loss. Breeding enterprises are advised to hold hedging short positions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - Spot market: In October, the average national pig price first declined and then rose, showing a "V" shape, with the monthly average price moving downward. The出栏量 increased, and secondary fattening effectively buffered the supply pressure. The average national pig出栏 price in October was 11.6 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 1.7 yuan/kg or 12.78%. The expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising decreased, and the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was - 34.5 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was - 258 yuan/head, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/head [12]. - Futures market: In October, the main futures contract 2601 fluctuated downward, closing at 11,815 yuan/ton on the 31st, a month - on - month decrease of 540 yuan/ton or 4.37%, with a basis of 235 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sow Inventory - Price: In October, the average market price of 50KG binary sows was 1551 yuan/head, a slight decrease of 42 yuan/head from the previous month [19]. - Inventory: According to official data, as of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 billion heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. According to Yongyi data, as of September, the sample farm's breeding sow inventory was 1.1458 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% and a year - on - year increase of 4.71%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 is expected to show certain trends from this year to next year [20][21]. 3.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - Price: In October, the average market price of 15KG piglets was 267 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 29.33% [35]. - Inventory: As of September, the sample enterprise's piglet inventory was 2.4159 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.42% and a year - on - year increase of 11.36%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly from October this year to March next year [35]. 3.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening - Large pig inventory: As of September, the sample enterprise's large pig inventory was 1.343 million heads, with a month - on - month increase of 1.77%. Theoretically, pig出栏量 in October and November will increase month - on - month [36]. - Hogging and secondary fattening: In September, the proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased. In October, the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased, and the spread between fat and standard pigs widened, leading to increased reluctance to sell [37][38]. 3.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig出栏量 and出栏 Weight -出栏量: In October 2025, the actual出栏量 of the sample was 27.56 million heads, with a completion rate of 105.7%. The planned出栏量 in November decreased by 3.27% compared to the actual出栏量 in October. From January to September 2025, the total pig出栏量 was 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [42]. -出栏 weight: In October, the average出栏 weight was 128.1 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. In November, the出栏 weight is expected to rise. The proportion of small - weight pigs remained stable, and the proportion of large - weight pigs decreased [43]. 3.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports In September, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, the same as the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the total pork imports were 790,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.24% [49]. 3.2.6 Demand - Secondary fattening: In October, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening increased in the middle and late months. In November, the demand for secondary fattening may decline as the utilization rate of pens reaches a high level [52]. - Slaughter: As of the end of October, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate was 35.31%, a month - on - month increase of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.59 percentage points. In November, the operating rate is expected to increase slightly [56]. - Terminal demand: In October, consumer demand increased as the weather cooled. In November, consumer demand is expected to continue to rise slightly, but the overall increase will be limited [57]. 3.2.7 Supply - Demand Situation In October, the fresh - meat sales rate of key slaughter enterprises decreased slightly, and the frozen - meat storage rate increased. In November, supply and demand are expected to increase, and the fresh - meat sales rate may fluctuate steadily, while the frozen - meat storage rate will be adjusted narrowly [65][67]. 3.3 Later Outlook - Supply side: Pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly until June next year and decline slightly in July. In November, the出栏量 of the breeding side may increase, and the出栏 weight will increase seasonally. The concentrated entry of secondary fattening in October may create dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival [69]. - Demand side: In November, consumer demand is expected to increase slightly as the weather cools, but the overall increase will be limited. The demand for secondary fattening may decline, weakening the support for prices [69]. - Outlook: Spot prices are expected to fluctuate, and futures prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate, mainly due to the potential dual supply pressure before the Spring Festival, but the impact of curing and enema on demand needs to be monitored [69][70]. - Strategies: Futures investors are advised to hold short positions or short on rallies with stop - loss. Breeding enterprises are advised to hold hedging short positions [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal commodity futures have rebounded significantly due to positive expectations from industry policies and the rigid increase in costs of coal, coke, and ore. It is expected that the market will continue to show a fluctuating and strengthening trend after a period of adjustment in the first and middle of November, but may decline again in the later part of November. Attention should be paid to the cooperation of the spot market and the positive cycle effect on the raw material market caused by the improvement of steel profits [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions and Outlook - **Futures Market**: On October 31, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2601 generally rose first and then fell. The closing prices of RB2601, HC2601, and SS2512 decreased by 0.48%, 0.72%, and 0.82% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Spot Market**: On October 31, the prices of a small number of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The prices of rebar in Wuxi, Nanchang, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Hangzhou, and Changsha decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; the prices of hot-rolled coil in Nanjing, Jinan, Wuxi, Guangzhou, and Shenyang decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values continuing to decline and the D value continuing to rise, showing a potential dead cross. The daily MACD red bars of both contracts narrowed slightly [7]. - **Raw Material Market**: In the past 4 weeks, the shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil and the arrivals at Chinese ports have increased by 3% - 4% month-on-month, and the ports have continued to accumulate inventory. The price of iron ore has strengthened significantly. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has decreased significantly recently, and the third round of spot price increases for coke was implemented at the end of the month. The coal price has generally increased, and the spot price of coking coal has jumped significantly [9]. - **Industry Policies**: On October 24, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a new version of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which put forward stricter requirements for the replacement ratio. Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production restriction on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from October 27 due to environmental protection requirements [8][9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Energy Supply**: The National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will ensure energy supply during the heating season. As of the end of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.72 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. As of October 27, the coal inventory of national unified power plants was 220 million tons, which could be used for more than 35 days [10]. - **Market Indicators**: In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [11]. - **Steel Industry**: The China Iron and Steel Association expects that the proportion of manufacturing in steel consumption will exceed 50% in 2025, and the annual output of crude steel is expected to be 998 million tons. The apparent consumption of steel from January to September decreased by 5.7% year-on-year to 649 million tons [11]. - **Corporate Performance**: The performance of various steel and energy companies in the third quarter and the first three quarters of 2025 varied. For example, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. achieved good results in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 130.31%. However, some companies such as Ansteel Co., Ltd. and Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. reported losses [12][13]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major cities, and the开工 rates and utilization rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces [16][20][24][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyolefin market is currently facing a continuous imbalance between supply and demand, which suppresses prices. High production expectations were realized in Q3, with new production capacity gradually released. In November, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost side also lacks support. Overall, the downward pressure on polyolefin prices is expected to continue, and the market may fluctuate in the bottom range, with weak support from potential phased restocking demand due to low absolute prices [7][75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q1, different upstream production rhythms led to different supply pressures for plastics and PP. In Q2, the market declined due to tariff impacts and weak demand. In Q3, the market was driven by policies, with a temporary rebound followed by a decline. In October, new production capacity and weakening cost support led to significant price drops [12][13]. - **Spot Market**: In October, the PE market declined. The monthly average price of LLDPE was 7,225 yuan/ton, down 2.41% month - on - month and 15.40% year - on - year. The monthly average price of LDPE was 9,325 yuan/ton, down 2.73% month - on - month and 14.31% year - on - year. In the PP market, the monthly average price of East China PP raffia was 6,585 yuan/ton, down 3.37% month - on - month and 13.25% year - on - year [14]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. Production and Capacity - **PP Production**: In September 2025, China's PP total production was 3.2754 million tons, down 6.20% month - on - month and up 9.84% year - on - year. The loss due to maintenance was still high, but the overall production level increased. In November, some maintenance devices will restart, and the loss due to maintenance is expected to decrease [15]. - **PE Production**: In October 2025, PE production was expected to be 2.7806 million tons, up 10.48% month - on - month. The start - up load rate increased. In November, the maintenance loss is expected to be about 470,000 tons [16]. - **New Capacity**: New capacity from Guangxi Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and BASF Zhanjiang will gradually be released [29]. 3.2.2. Import and Export - **PE**: In September 2025, PE imports were 1.022 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. Exports were 99,000 tons, down 14.5% month - on - month and up 63.55% year - on - year [31]. - **PP**: In September 2025, PP imports were 290,100 tons, up 17.46% month - on - month and down 2.96% year - on - year. Exports were 237,600 tons, up 21.98% year - on - year [31]. 3.2.3. Inventory - After the National Day holiday, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased. As of the end of October, the inventory level was 675,000 tons, down 85,000 tons year - on - year. The inventory of PP commercial enterprises was 595,100 tons, and the social sample inventory of PE was 527,400 tons, up 2,900 tons month - on - month [33]. 3.2.4. Cost and Profit Analysis - **Coal**: In October, the coal market was stable to weak. The average profit of coal - based PE was 197.05 yuan/ton, down 431.21 yuan/ton from the previous month. The average profit of coal - based PP was - 258.13 yuan/ton, down 492 yuan/ton month - on - month [36]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the market was worried about oversupply. The average profit of naphtha - based PE was 46.68 yuan/ton, up 186.8 yuan/ton month - on - month. The average loss of oil - based PP was - 246.15 yuan/ton, an increase of 106.4 yuan/ton month - on - month [37]. - **Propane**: In October, the domestic propane price fluctuated downward and then stabilized. The average profit of PDH - based PP was - 808.19 yuan/ton, a decrease in losses of 384.27 yuan/ton compared to the previous month [38]. 3.2.5. Downstream Demand - **PE**: In October, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased in most cases. The demand for agricultural films and pipes showed different trends, and overall, the demand for raw materials had limited support [52]. - **PP**: In October, the start - up rate of most PP downstream industries remained high, but the new orders had limited continuity, and the support for prices was limited [53]. 3.2.6. White Goods Production - In November 2025, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 2.847 million units, down 17.7% year - on - year. The domestic production schedule growth slowed down significantly in Q4, and the export decline narrowed [66][67]. 3.3. Market Outlook The polyolefin market will continue to be pressured by weak cost support and a loose supply - demand situation. Although the low absolute price may stimulate phased restocking demand, the market is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation [75][76].

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Monthly Report [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Report Theme: Repairing the Basis, Zhengzhou Sugar Shows Strength [5] Core Viewpoints - The peak production season in central - southern Brazil has passed, and the later crushing volume may gradually decline. However, India and Thailand are entering a new sugar - making season, so the supply pressure remains [8][57]. - With the raw sugar price falling below 15 cents, major global sugar - producing regions are in a loss state. But whether it will lead to production cuts is an issue for the next season and cannot improve the current sugar price [8][57]. - Market research institutions estimate that the sugar production in Guangxi for the 25/26 season will be around 6.7 million tons, an increase of about 0.5 million tons year - on - year [8][57]. - Downstream enterprises report weak demand due to the overall macro - economic situation and low enthusiasm for sugar procurement [8][57]. - Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has been significantly stronger than raw sugar. This is mainly because the Zhengzhou sugar 601 contract is approaching the delivery month. The large basis in the early stage and the early withdrawal of speculative short - position funds without delivery intention have led to a rebound in the futures price. It is a short - term structural market, and there is a lack of bullish support in the medium - term fundamentals [8][57]. Section Summaries 1. Futures Market Review - In October, the raw sugar index showed a continuous four - week decline and a downward - breaking trend, breaking through the 15 - cent and 14 - cent marks and approaching the lower Bollinger Band of the monthly line [14]. - The Zhengzhou sugar index showed a weak oscillation in October, with the price once falling below the 5400 mark and then rebounding and stabilizing. The rebound was stopped at the 10 - week moving average and the 40 - day moving average [14]. 2. Spot Market Conditions - In October, the spot price of sugar continued to decline. The spot price of Nanning sugar of Guangxi Nanhua Group dropped from 5810 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5700 yuan/ton at the end of the month; the price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan dropped from 5710 yuan/ton to 5620 yuan/ton; the price of processed sugar in Rizhao, Shandong dropped from 5900 yuan/ton to 5870 yuan/ton [18]. - In October, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts plus effective forecasts continued to decrease. At the beginning of the month, there were 9464, and at the end of the month, it decreased to 8116. The registered warehouse receipts decreased from 9464 to 7530, and the effective forecasts increased from 0 to 586 [18]. 3. Futures Market Structure Analysis - In October, both futures and spot markets were weak. The spot market continued to weaken while the futures market oscillated horizontally, and the basis continued to shrink. The basis of the 2601 contract against the Nanning spot price decreased from 325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 206 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the basis of the 2605 contract decreased from 356 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [22]. - In October, the spread between the main January contract and the secondary main May contract of Zhengzhou sugar widened significantly, mainly because the departure of short - position speculators in the near - month contract made the 01 contract stronger. The spread increased from 35 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 65 yuan/ton at the end of the month [22]. - In October, the spread between the London white sugar futures and the New York raw sugar futures main contracts widened, reaching 101 US dollars/ton at the end of the month. The current spread is at a slight profit level for raw sugar processing enterprises [25]. - As of September 23, the net short position of hedge funds and large speculators in raw sugar reached 125,628 contracts, a significant increase from the beginning of the month. Meanwhile, the total open interest in raw sugar futures decreased significantly to 898,935 contracts [25]. 4. Production and Sales Situation - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03% [29]. - As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in the country were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year increase of 6.52 percentage points. In May, the single - month sugar sales were 869,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22,900 tons. The sales volume in May was relatively low compared to the same period in the past five years [31]. - At the end of May 2025, the national sugar industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons, and it was at a relatively low level in the past five years [35]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In September 2025, the sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. As of the end of September, the cumulative sugar import volume in the country for this sugar - making season was 4.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12 tons [39]. - In September, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 151,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 135,100 tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 season, the total import volume of syrup and premixed powder was 1.5283 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 625,600 tons. In October, China suspended the import of all syrup and premixed sugar from Thailand, and policy optimization may suppress short - term imports [39][40]. - In October, the price of overseas raw sugar continued to decline, and the trend of Zhengzhou sugar was weakly oscillating, with the internal - external price spread widening. The processing profit of Brazilian raw sugar within the quota increased from around 1420 yuan/ton at the beginning of October to 1785 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the processing profit outside the quota increased from around 193 yuan/ton to 678 yuan/ton [40]. 6. Production in Overseas Major Producing Countries - In the first half of October 2025, in central - southern Brazil, there were 255 production units in operation (3 less than the same period in the previous season). The sugar cane crushing volume was 34.037 million tons, a year - on - year slight increase of 0.30%. The sugar production was 2.484 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%. The proportion of sugar - cane used for sugar production decreased by 3 percentage points to 48.2%. The total ethanol production was 2.013 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% [45][47]. - As of October 16, 2025, in the 2025/2026 season in central - southern Brazil, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 524.957 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%. The cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89%. The cumulative total ethanol production was 25.036 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.23% [48]. - Recently, the port logistics in Brazil has become increasingly tense. As of the week of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased from 83 to 90, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased to 3.7272 million tons, a 3.3% increase from the previous week [52]. 7. Exchange Rate Factors - In October, the US dollar index showed a strong oscillation. The Brazilian real depreciated slightly against the US dollar, and the Thai baht appreciated slightly against the US dollar [54]. - On October 29, local time, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [55]. 8. Market Outlook - The supply pressure in the raw sugar market remains. Although the production in central - southern Brazil may decline, India and Thailand are starting a new season. The current low price may not lead to production cuts in the short term [57]. - For the domestic sugar market, the supply may increase, but the demand is weak. The recent strength of Zhengzhou sugar is a short - term structural phenomenon, and there is a lack of medium - term bullish factors [57].

Report Overview - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The oils and fats market opened high and closed low, continuing to decline, dragged down by the inventory build - up in palm oil producing areas and the uncertainty of biodiesel policies. The domestic supply of oils and fats is sufficient, and the spot prices fell with the market, while the basis quotes remained stable. For palm oil, there is a strong production increase expectation in the main producing areas, with slowing export data and expected inventory increases at home and abroad, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. After November, the arrival of imported soybeans is expected to decrease, and with the decline in oil mill crushing volume, soybean oil is likely to turn to inventory reduction. The spot basis quotes of soybean oil will have limited short - term fluctuations due to the poor soybean crushing profit of factories. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the development of China - Canada relations. The domestic spot basis is stable and slightly strong, continuing the inventory reduction trend. In the short - term, it is regarded as a volatile adjustment, and the lower technical support should be noted. In the medium - to long - term, the idea is to buy on dips [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China region, the basis of Grade 3 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 390, and from December to January is OI2601 + 320; the basis of Grade 1 rapeseed oil from October to November is OI2601 + 480, and from December to January is OI2601 + 400. The basis price of Grade 1 soybean oil in the East China market: in November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil from Dongguan traders is temporarily stable, with the price of 24 - degree palm oil from various factories in Dongguan being 01 - 80 [7]. - **Market Analysis and Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors. In the short - term, it is in a volatile adjustment state, and attention should be paid to the lower technical support. In the medium - to long - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [7]. 3.2. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture has suspended the release of weekly export sales reports and daily sales announcements due to the government shutdown. Analysts estimate that the weekly export sales of US soybeans for the week ending October 23, 2025, are between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons [9]. - Before the summit between China and the US, COFCO, a Chinese state - owned enterprise, purchased three ships of US soybeans, totaling 180,000 tons, to be shipped from the US West Coast from December to January next year [9]. - Rabobank expects the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the current forecast of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [9]. - According to data from the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), the export pace of Brazilian soybeans in October so far is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. From October 1 to 24, the export volume of Brazilian soybeans was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9][10]. 3.3. Data Overview - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in the state of Paraná, Brazil, in the 2025/26 season is 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent - good rate of soybeans is 98%, and the proportion of average - rated soybeans is 2%. Last week, the excellent - good rate was 99% [18]. - As of October 29, the inventory of imported soybeans in major ports is about 8.3 million tons, compared with 7.7 million tons in the same period last year and a five - year average of 7.4 million tons. The cumulative arrival in this month is 8.2 million tons. According to data tracked and counted by the China Grain and Oil Business Network, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in October 2025 is 8.8 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the forecast arrival volume of 8.6 million tons last month, a month - on - month change of 2.18%; an increase of 2.5 million tons compared with the arrival volume of 6.3 million tons in the same period last year, a year - on - year change of 39.44% [18].

Report Summary Report Title Multi-silicon Monthly Report Report Date November 01, 2025 Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoint The multi-silicon market is suppressed by fundamentals above and supported by policies below. Wait for a definite opportunity for range breakthrough [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Multi-silicon Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: In October, multi-silicon futures contracts continued to oscillate at high levels. The Ps2511 contract closed at 54,350 yuan/ton, up 5.82% monthly, with a trading volume of 2.321 million lots and an open interest of 2,748 lots. The Ps2601 contract closed at 56,410 yuan/ton, up 5.29% monthly, with a trading volume of 2.392 million lots and an open interest of 142,000 lots, a net increase of 109,000 lots. The spot price of multi-silicon remained stable, with the n-type re-feeding material trading in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price at 53,200 yuan/ton [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price range of multi-silicon is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 53,200 yuan/ton. The price range of the multi-silicon futures 2601 contract is 50,000 - 59,000 yuan/ton. The closing price at the end of October has a premium over the spot price, and the upward resistance is increasing. The endogenous driving force for the improvement of multi-silicon supply and demand is limited. The profit of multi-silicon has been significantly repaired, and the monthly output has continued to exceed expectations. In October, the output of multi-silicon was 137,000 tons, which can meet the terminal demand of 68.50GW. The terminal demand is still in the weak stage after the "rush installation", with the monthly demand expected to be about 10GW, the export demand between 20 - 30GW, and the total demand about 40GW. The policy-driven logic takes precedence over the fundamentals. The support policy is that the selling price of silicon materials should not be lower than the comprehensive production cost of enterprises. The effective support provided by the fundamentals is expected to be between 45,000 - 47,000 yuan/ton. The stimulus policy comes from the "state reserve" rumor in the past two months, which has not been realized and should not be priced. Overall, the unilateral driving force is not strong. It is advisable to bet on a rebound at the lower edge of the range or wait for the policy to be realized for a range breakthrough. Do not chase up or sell down within the range [10][11]. 2. Limited Endogenous Driving Force for the Improvement of the Photovoltaic Industry's Supply and Demand - **Price Stability**: The spot prices in the photovoltaic industry generally remained stable. The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, the multi-silicon spot price was stable with low market activity, the prices of silicon wafers showed no obvious changes, and the prices of downstream batteries and components were relatively stable [13]. - **High Profits and Production Will**: In October, the average production cost of multi-silicon was 41,443 yuan/ton, and the theoretical net profit per ton was as high as 9,157 yuan/ton. The high profits and industry self-discipline may weaken the actual effect of anti-involution production cuts. The production willingness of multi-silicon enterprises was high in October, and the actual production cut was less than expected, with the pressure of supply-demand mismatch remaining [14][15]. - **Production and Demand Situation**: The production of silicon wafers and batteries remained stable, and the pressure of terminal demand had not been significantly transmitted to the upstream. The anti-involution price increase in the industry chain stimulated the production of silicon wafers and batteries to continue to rise. From January to September, the silicon wafer production was 488.70GW, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.59%. In October, the expected production of silicon wafers was between 58 - 60GW, with little monthly change. From January to September, the battery production was 481.48GW, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 0.51%. In October, the expected production of batteries was about 55GW, with little monthly change. The terminal demand was still in the weak stage after the "rush installation" in the first half of the year. From January to September 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 240.27GW, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 49.35%. However, the installed capacities in June, July, August, and September were 14.36GW, 11.04GW, 7.36GW, and 9.65GW respectively, and the installed capacity in September decreased by 54% year-on-year. In terms of external demand, from January to September 2025, the total export volume of photovoltaic modules was 204.27GW, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. In September, the export volume of Chinese photovoltaic modules was 25.63GW, a month-on-month decrease of 6.0% and a year-on-year increase of 46.8%. The supply-demand mismatch pressure remained, and the multi-silicon spot market continued to accumulate inventory. As of October 30, the multi-silicon spot inventory was 273,040 tons, a 13.33% increase from the same period last month, a 1.2% increase from the end of June, and a 7.50% increase from the same period last year. The futures inventory was 27,360 tons, a 14.72% increase from the same period last month [15][16][17]. 3. The Macro and Industrial Policies Were in a Vacuum Period in October - **Policy Frequent in September**: In September, the multi-silicon industry policies were frequently issued, fulfilling the policy expectations of anti-"involution" competition set by the high-level since the end of June. On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026". On September 16, the article "Deeply Promote the Construction of a Unified National Market" was published in the official media, emphasizing the governance of various chaotic phenomena. On the same day, the Standardization Administration of China solicited opinions on 3 mandatory national standards such as "Energy Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Silicon Polysilicon and Germanium". After the adjustment of the existing production capacity structure, the effective production capacity of domestic multi-silicon will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared with the end of 2024 and a 31.4% decrease compared with the installed production capacity [32]. - **Policy Evaluation**: Currently, the total production capacity of the multi-silicon industry is significantly excessive. It is expected that the policy logic is not to clear the photovoltaic production capacity but to promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry through policy guidance and market-based operations, with the overall goal of meeting the "dual carbon" target. The multi-silicon industry needs more policies from the policy side and the industry to get out of the bottom cycle of supply-demand imbalance [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The national carbon market price is under pressure and fluctuating. The current low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rule, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [4][8] - Policies such as expanding the coverage of the national carbon market, implementing quota control and有偿分配, and strengthening the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market are expected to promote the development of the carbon market and the green - low - carbon transformation of industries [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Carbon Market Overview - In October, the national carbon market's comprehensive price had a maximum of 59.30 yuan/ton, a minimum of 50.34 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 51.96 yuan/ton, down 10.37% from the previous month. The total trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 41,562,530 tons, with a total turnover of 1,988,434,330.99 yuan. From January 1 to October 31, 2025, the trading volume was 139,661,332 tons, and the turnover was 8,785,796,587.81 yuan. The carbon price has been declining since June and is now close to the 2021 opening price, more than 50% lower than the 2024 high [8] - According to the latest regulations, surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus allowances to 2025 by December 31, 2025, but need to apply before June 10, 2026 [8] - Fudan Carbon Index predicts the buying, selling, and middle prices of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) and Chinese Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) for November and December 2025 [9] 3.2 Market News - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%. In September, the total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The high electricity consumption in the third quarter was due to high - temperature weather and economic recovery [10] - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to accelerate the green - low - carbon transformation of energy, including developing non - fossil energy, promoting the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and promoting the green - low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions in key industries are expected to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10] - The "Opinions on Promoting Green - Low - Carbon Transformation and Strengthening Carbon Market Construction" aims to expand the coverage of the national carbon market, implement quota control and 有偿分配, tighten quotas, strengthen the construction of the voluntary emission reduction trading market, and improve the vitality of the national carbon market [10] 3.3 Data Summary - The report provides multiple data charts, including the EU carbon price, power generation equipment growth rate, power generation growth rate, photovoltaic installation volume, and coal power plant daily consumption, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][15][19]

Report Overview - Report Title: Industrial Silicon Monthly Report - Date: November 01, 2025 - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoint: Industrial silicon lacks continuous policy support. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with high inventory levels. The price of the 01 contract is expected to operate cautiously and strongly in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, but the resistance to rebound above 9,000 yuan/ton increases. Unilateral operation has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio, so it is advisable to wait and see [5][20][21]. 1. Industrial Silicon Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - Price Fluctuations: The fluctuations in industrial silicon futures and spot prices have significantly decreased. Without policy support, the prices have reached a stalemate. In October, the spot prices remained stable, and the futures prices fluctuated within a range. The monthly closing price of Si2511 was 8,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.69%, and the trading volume was 2.444 million lots, with an open interest of 7,516 lots. The monthly closing price of Si2601 was 9,100 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 1.45%, and the trading volume was 2.616 million lots, with an open interest of 229,000 lots, a net increase of 135,000 lots [19]. 1.2 November Outlook - Policy and Demand: Industrial silicon lacks continuous policy support, and the anti-"involution" production cuts in polysilicon are actually negative for the demand side of industrial silicon. The production cuts in the later fourth quarter need further observation [20]. - Supply and Demand: In October, the expected production of industrial silicon was 420,000 tons, while the total demand was 400,250 tons. The supply-demand imbalance has not been reversed. As of the end of October, the industry inventory was 447,700 tons, and the futures inventory was 237,000 tons, totaling 684,700 tons. High inventory accumulation is difficult to reverse [20]. - Price Forecast: The 01 contract price is expected to operate cautiously and strongly in the range of 8,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance to rebound above 9,000 yuan/ton increases. It is advisable to continue using the idea of bottom support and rebound at the lower edge of the range, but unilateral operation has an unfavorable risk-reward ratio [20][21]. 2. Supply Side - Production Statistics: From January to September 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.9345 million tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 16.89%, with an average monthly production of 326,100 tons. The northern regions, except Xinjiang, showed a significant production increase trend, while the southwestern regions continued to reduce production [23]. - Profit and Production Willingness: The profit window for industrial silicon has opened, and enterprises have a strong willingness to increase production. In October, the single-ton cost was 9,093.38 yuan/ton, and the single-ton profit was 179.71 yuan/ton, a slight increase from the previous month. The power price in the southwestern regions is about to rise, which will support the silicon price [23]. - October Production: In October, industrial silicon production continued to grow. The anti-involution policy did not lead to the elimination of backward production capacity. As of the end of October, the total number of furnaces was 796, the number of operating furnaces was 320, and the operating rate was 40.20%. The weekly production gradually increased, mainly due to the resumption of production in large factories in Xinjiang [24]. 3. Demand Side 3.1 Import and Export - Export: In September, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased slightly. From January to September, the cumulative export volume was 561,600 tons, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.55%, with an average monthly export volume of 62,400 tons [37]. - Import: From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 8,601.55 tons, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 63.55% [37]. 3.2 Organic Silicon Demand - Industry Status: In 2024, the effective production capacity of organic silicon reached 3.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.72%; the production was 2.5213 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 71.43%. The supply-demand imbalance in the organic silicon market has not been reversed, and the spot price is still below the cost line [38]. - Demand for Industrial Silicon: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon market remains stable. From January to September, the cumulative production of organic silicon (DMC) was 1.978 million tons, and the demand for industrial silicon was 1.0286 million tons. The monthly production in October is expected to remain at around 220,000 tons, with little change in the overall demand for industrial silicon [39]. 3.3 Polysilicon Demand - Profit and Production: Since the end of June, policy support has opened up profit margins for polysilicon enterprises. In October, the average production cost of polysilicon was 41,443 yuan/ton, and the theoretical net profit per ton was as high as 9,157 yuan/ton. High profits and industry self-discipline may weaken the actual effect of anti-involution production cuts [48]. - Production Forecast: From January to October, the cumulative production of polysilicon was 1.0839 million tons. In October, the domestic polysilicon production is expected to reach 137,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.2%. According to the enterprise production plan, the monthly production in November - December is expected to fall back to 125,000 - 130,000 tons [48][49]. - Inventory Situation: The supply-demand mismatch in the polysilicon market persists, and the spot market continues to accumulate inventory. As of October 30, the spot inventory was 273,040 tons, a 13.33% increase from the previous month. It is expected that the inventory accumulation speed will slow down in November and December, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 is likely to exceed 400,000 tons [49].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Monthly Report [1] - Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Core View: Bullish factors are gradually digested, and oil prices are mainly bearish [5] Group 2: Market Analysis - OPEC+ Situation: OPEC+ production release is moderate, but member countries decide to continue increasing production, deepening concerns about market supply surplus. There is still a possibility of accelerated production increase. Kuwait's oil minister says OPEC is ready to increase production when demand rises. Saudi Arabia previously wanted to speed up production increase but was opposed by Russia. Iraq is negotiating its crude oil production quota [6][16][18] - Russia Sanctions: Russia is sanctioned again, leading to strong short - term market wait - and - see sentiment. Attention is on the implementation of later sanctions. Short - term, some purchases may shift to Middle Eastern countries [6][23][24] - US Crude Oil Production: US crude oil production grows slowly, and the growth space in the 4th quarter is relatively limited. The Dallas Fed survey shows weak exploration and development willingness and rising costs [6][25][27] - Macro - economic Situation: Sino - US trade negotiations are advancing, easing the macro - atmosphere to some extent, but the market reaction after the leaders' meeting is flat. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25bp, but the direct boost to oil prices is limited in the short term [6] - Supply - demand Balance: EIA and IEA significantly raise global crude oil supply expectations in their monthly reports. Supply growth far exceeds demand growth, and the market inventory accumulation speed accelerates. The inventory accumulation in the 4th quarter of this year and the 1st quarter of 2026 is adjusted from 190/255 barrels per day to 265/300 barrels per day [6][40][42] Group 3: Market Performance in October - Price Trend: International oil prices reversed in a V - shape in October. At the beginning, prices fluctuated narrowly. After Trump's remarks on tariffs and sanctions, prices first fell and then rebounded. As of October 28, SC closed at 464.1 yuan/barrel with a 3.95% decline; Brent closed at $64.85/barrel with a 0.73% decline; WTI closed at $61.26/barrel with a 0.63% decline [13][14] Group 4: Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Outlook: Bullish factors are gradually digested. Under the pressure of oversupply, oil prices may decline again. The implementation of US sanctions on Russia needs attention. In the short term, the market may increase purchases of Middle Eastern crude oil, supporting relevant oil types and SC to strengthen relatively [52][53] - Operation Suggestions: In the short term, focus on long domestic and short foreign positions. In the medium term, maintain a bearish view, try short on rebounds or conduct reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to OPEC+ meetings [53]