类别 贵金属月报 日期 2025 年 10 月 9 日 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美联储重启降息进程金银价格狂 飙 请阅读正文后的声明 月度报告 近期研究报告 《宏观专题-20250918-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析（三）》 《宏观专题-20250821-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(二)》 《宏观专题-20250815-特朗普政府 贸易关税政策梳理及宏观市场影响 分析(一)》 《宏观专题-20250724-从 CIP 指数 观察中国制造业的国际竞争力》 宏观专题-20250306-特朗普 2.0 新 政阶段性回顾：回归保守价值观、 回归丛林 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel price has fallen back to around the 120,000 mark. On the 29th, the main contract 2511 fell 0.61% to 121,100 compared with the previous day. There is still pressure of oversupply for pure nickel, but it is supported by nickel ore and costs at the current position and is hard to fall deeply. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. One should continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia, and the bottom support reference for Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level. With the long holiday approaching, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel fell 0.61% to 121,100 on the 29th compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300 compared with the previous day, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 60 to 28,260 yuan per ton compared with the previous day [7] - Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of nickel ore at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up in advance in the fourth quarter to lock in nickel ore inventory. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not fall deeply this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong supported by costs and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited. The profit of nickel-iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be limited. The price of nickel salts remains strong supported by the pre-holiday stocking demand [7] - It is recommended to hold a light position during the long holiday to control risks [7] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The mining department's decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. It is expected that an official document will be issued this Sunday or next Monday. This news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is confirmed to be extended, it is expected that the inventory of smelting enterprises will remain below the safety level [8][10] - China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the next financial reform will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, Pan Gongsheng said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group announced a concentrated rectification of mines. Previously, the working group took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain the state's control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state-owned enterprise department [10] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development. The company has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and promised to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed up to join the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) [10]

1. Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The SCFIS index accelerated its decline this week, falling below 1130 points, indicating that the shipping reality is weaker than expected, and the basis protection cushion for futures has significantly decreased. Although Maersk raised the freight rate for the third week of October to $1800 per large container last week, which shows the shipowners' willingness to support prices at the end of the year and boosts market sentiment, the overall loading forecast rate after the National Day holiday is low, and this price may not be realized. Attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow up to form a price increase force to bottom out the freight rate. In addition, the renewed escalation of the Middle East situation is expected to support the far - month contracts, and there should be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The SCFIS index accelerated its decline this week, falling below 1130 points, with the basis protection cushion for futures significantly decreasing. Maersk raised the October third - week freight rate, but the post - National Day loading forecast rate is low, and the price may not be realized. The Middle East situation is expected to support far - month contracts [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: There should be low - buying opportunities in December [8]. 4.2 Industry News - From September 22 to September 26, the demand for China's export container transportation weakened, the freight rates in the ocean - going routes continued to adjust, and the comprehensive index continued to decline. On September 26, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1114.52 points, down 7.0% from the previous period, with the decline narrowing. - **European Routes**: Economic data in Europe is poor, demand growth in the transportation market lacks momentum, and the spot market booking price continued to decline. On September 26, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in Europe was $971/TEU, down 7.7% from the previous period. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The transportation market situation is similar to that in Europe, and the market freight rate continued to adjust. On September 26, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the Mediterranean was $1485/TEU, down 9.3% from the previous period. - **North American Routes**: Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut and rising inflation expectations, the economic situation in the US is declining, demand in the transportation market has not improved, and the spot market booking price continued to fall. On September 26, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to basic ports in the US West and East were $1460/FEU and $2385/FEU respectively, down 10.8% and 6.7% from the previous period [9]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | September 29, 2025 | September 22, 2025 | Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Routes (Basic Ports) | 1120.49 | 1254.92 | - 134.43 | - 10.7% | | SCFIS: US West Routes (Basic Ports) | 921.25 | 1193.64 | - 272.39 | - 22.8% | [12] 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1150.8 | 1141.0 | 1115.0 | 1122.0 | - 35.8 | - 3.11 | 16679 | 29314 | - 3117 | | EC2512 | 1880.6 | 1763.0 | 1756.3 | 1735.0 | - 24.3 | - 1.36 | 11879 | 20683 | - 1012 | | EC2602 | 1691.9 | 1668.1 | 1667.0 | 1644.7 | - 24.9 | - 1.47 | 4011 | 8852 | 84 | | EC2604 | 1279.1 | 1260.0 | 1253.0 | 1253.1 | - 26.1 | - 2.04 | 1189 | 9110 | 11 | | EC2606 | 1482.6 | 1463.6 | 1452.7 | 1453.8 | - 29.9 | - 2.02 | 97 | 930 | - 8 | | EC2608 | 1631.0 | 1601.1 | 1595.0 | 1598.9 | - 36.0 | - 2.21 | 75 | 530 | - 12 | [6] 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][18][23][26]

Group 1: Market Data - On September 29, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts RB2601 and HC2601 continued to decline, approaching their lows since July 9 and July 18 respectively. The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, with declines of 1.34% and 1.23% respectively. The trading volumes were 1,145,688 lots and 517,716 lots, and the open interests decreased by 49,906 lots and 6,738 lots respectively. The net capital outflows were 132 million yuan and 39 million yuan respectively [5]. - The closing price of stainless steel futures contract SS2511 was 12,760 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 163,271 lots, and the open interest decreased by 11,471 lots, with a net capital outflow of 108 million yuan [5]. - In the black futures market, the long - short position differences and deviations of various contracts on September 29 were as follows: RB2601 had a long - short difference of 41,212 lots and a deviation of 3.44%; HC2601 had a difference of 17,299 lots and a deviation of 1.75%; SS2511 had a difference of - 69 lots and a deviation of - 0.11%; J2601 had a difference of 948 lots and a deviation of 3.32%; JM2601 had a difference of 13,307 lots and a deviation of 3.57%; I2601 had a difference of 11,264 lots and a deviation of 3.74% [6]. Group 2: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On September 29, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market declined. The rebar prices in Nanning and Zhengzhou dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and those in Jinan, Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming, and Xi'an decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jinan, Nanning, Chongqing, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Chengdu, and Guiyang fell by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2601 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days and is close to a death cross, while the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract showed a significant increase in the green column after a death cross the previous day [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The weekly output of the five major steel products increased after three consecutive weeks of decline. The demand reached a new high since mid - July after three consecutive weeks of recovery from its lowest level since early March. The social inventory of the five major steel products declined from its highest level since late April [9]. - In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported sinter powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills reached new highs since early February after three and four consecutive weeks of significant increases respectively, indicating that steel mills actively replenished their stocks before the festival. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased after reaching a low since late February, but the growth rate narrowed, and the arrival volume reached a new high since late March. The coke per - ton profit has been in the red for two consecutive weeks, and the coke spot price started to rise again on September 24. The coke inventories of coking plants and ports were not high, and steel mills actively replenished their coke stocks before the festival. The refined coal inventory of mines decreased significantly, and the coking coal spot price generally increased again [9]. - Considering that the domestic incremental policies are less effective than those in the previous year, while the anti - involution policies are still expected, and the steel production cut will be mainly structural, the support from the raw material side is relatively predictable. It is expected that the steel market will rebound for the second time after a period of consolidation from late September to early October. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the willingness of steel mills and coking plants to replenish raw material stocks [9]. Group 4: Industry News - From 2021 to 2024, China's investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, reaching 1.3529 trillion yuan in 2024, a record high. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the total investment in water conservancy construction is expected to reach 5.4 trillion yuan. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, 172 major water conservancy projects have been launched, and the layout, structure, function, and system integration of water conservancy infrastructure have been optimized [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a series of practical measures to stimulate private investment and promote the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [10]. - In August 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 25.81 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The import amount was 4.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.4%. The export amount was 21.64 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [11]. - From January to August, the advanced steel industry in Hebei Province led the nine major industrial leading industries, with a double - digit growth rate of 14.1% [11]. - Jiufeng Energy plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in a coal - to - natural - gas project in Xinjiang, holding a 50% stake in the project [11]. - Kailuan Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. provided a 100 million yuan guarantee for its subsidiary's letter of credit business [11].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2510 | 21900 | 21755 | 21910 | 21625 | -255 | -1.16 | 14660 | -7688 | | 沪锌 | 2511 | 21930 | 21800 | 21950 | 21665 | -235 | -1.07 | 142400 | 16314 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 21920 | 2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - On the penultimate trading day before the holiday, with a quiet news front and decreased market trading enthusiasm, Shanghai Aluminum showed weak performance. The main 2511 contract closed with a slight 0.22% decline at 20,730. The spread between October and November changed from a discount to a premium of 15, and the far - month contracts maintained a slight contango structure. The import window was closed, and the spot import loss fluctuated around - 1,500 yuan/ton. It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday [7]. - The production of domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed, and the probability of resuming production this year is low. The price of imported ore is under short - term pressure, but with the end of the rainy season, the shipping volume will gradually increase. The alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. The supply surplus is difficult to ease for the time being. After October, some high - cost enterprises are expected to cut production and carry out maintenance as the monthly average price drops [7]. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high. The operating rate of processing enterprises rebounded significantly last week but is likely to decline temporarily due to the upcoming long holiday. Shanghai Aluminum has returned to the previous trading range. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500. It's advisable to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7]. - The trend of cast aluminum alloy continues to follow Shanghai Aluminum. With the peak season and the tight supply of scrap aluminum raw materials, continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL [7]. Group 4: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum market was weak on the penultimate trading day before the holiday. The main 2511 contract closed slightly down, the spread structure changed, and the import window was closed [7]. - **Bauxite Situation**: Domestic bauxite in the north has not resumed production, and the probability of resuming this year is low. Imported ore is under short - term pressure, but shipping volume will increase after the rainy season. Pay attention to the changes in mining rights policies before the Guinea election [7]. - **Alumina Situation**: Alumina price fluctuates around 2,900. Supply surplus is difficult to ease. After October, some high - cost enterprises may cut production and carry out maintenance [7]. - **Operational Suggestions**: It's recommended to wait and see before the holiday. Pay attention to the support level of 20,500 for Shanghai Aluminum and hold a light position during the holiday [7]. Group 5: Industry News - UAE's EGA is preparing for a potential IPO, with an estimated valuation of $10 - 15 billion. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are competing for this major listing project. EGA has overcome challenges such as US aluminum tariffs and plans to invest $4 billion in a smelter in Oklahoma [8][10]. - In 2025, the demand for aluminum cans in Japan was about 2.091 billion, remaining the same as the previous year and staying at the 2 - billion - can level for 10 consecutive years [9]. - On September 22, 2025, the standard warehouse receipt generation business of cast aluminum alloy futures was officially launched. The total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts on the first day was 3,878 tons, with different volumes in various regions [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: September 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices have started a new upward trend, which may last until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Due to the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, both gold and silver are expected to rise, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to its high volatility. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays and numerous key data events, the volatility of precious metals may increase, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The risk of the US government shutdown caused the US dollar index to decline for two consecutive days, falling below the 98 mark. News of potential US drone strikes in Venezuela increased risk - aversion demand. London gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark, and London silver reached $47.2 per ounce. Gold prices had a sideways consolidation from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have boosted gold prices since early September, starting a new upward trend. This week, attention should be paid to global September PMI, US September non - farm payrolls, and the progress of the US congressional game. With the approaching holidays, investors should reduce positions to avoid risks [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest over - valuation. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provided safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors drove the gold price to break through $3,500 per ounce. The new upward trend is expected to last until the spring and summer of 2026. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise with gold and may outperform gold in terms of gains [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced new import tariffs on October 1, including a 100% tariff on patented drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, breaking the relatively calm trade situation and causing new uncertainties [17] - US consumer spending in August increased slightly more than expected, with a 0.6% increase. Personal income rose 0.4%, and the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year [17] - Fed's regulatory vice - chair Bowman reiterated the need for decisive interest - rate cuts and supported balance - sheet reduction and adjustment of the standing repurchase mechanism. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes the risks of a significant increase in unemployment or inflation are limited [18] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its October 5 meeting, but the final decision is yet to be made [18]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The funds in the oil and fat sector have flowed out, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has shown a fluctuating downward trend. For the 01 contract, there is pressure above but also support below, so it is expected to move in a range; for the 05 contract, the strategy is to buy at low prices and roll over for long positions. As the long holiday approaches, attention should be paid to risk control [7] - Although the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, the climate change in October, the key sowing window period, needs to be closely monitored. If the subsequent rainfall continues to fall short of expectations, it may affect the crop emergence uniformity and potential yield per unit area [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the basis prices of different grades of rapeseed oil and soybean oil at different times, as well as the quotes of palm oil of different grades in Guangdong, are given [7] - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector has seen capital outflows, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has trended downward. Short - term seasonal pressure comes from the harvest of North American oilseeds. The 01 contract is expected to move in a range, while the 05 contract is recommended for low - buying and rolling long positions [7] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports increased (12.9% according to ITS and 11.3% according to AmSpec), while production decreased by 4.14% compared with the previous period. As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 534,000 tons, and the contract volume increased by 4,000 tons to 35,000 tons [8] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season is slow, with only about 1% of the planting area sown as of last week, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The uneven distribution of rainfall has increased farmers' uncertainty [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the spot prices of East China's tertiary rapeseed oil, quaternary soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of different palm oil contracts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]

Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average, with traders adjusting prices slightly. Spot prices were mainly stable, and downstream buyers made small - quantity replenishments. The approaching double - festivals increased packaging demand, but market confidence was insufficient, resulting in limited demand drive, weak rebound, and low - level weak fluctuations [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated slightly up during the session, and closed up at 7181 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.25%). Trading volume was 197,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 16,900 lots to 537,691 lots. PP2601 closed at 6903 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.04%), and open interest decreased by 7,767 lots to 602,003 lots [5][6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 560,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (0.90%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 660,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: PE market prices fluctuated slightly. Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The trading atmosphere was average. Traders adjusted prices slightly, and spot prices were mainly stable. Downstream buyers made small - quantity replenishments. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7,100 - 7,350 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,220 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,250 - 7,700 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was temporarily 6,370 - 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some major producers restarted, increasing short - term supply. Downstream factories were waiting and buying at low prices. The transaction of producers improved little, with most offers stable and some slightly discounted [7] - **PP Market**: Most PP market prices fluctuated slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,630 - 6,750 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,680 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,650 - 6,800 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report provided figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][15][17]

Report Summary Industry Cotton [1] Date September 30, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pre - sale prices of new cotton in the 2025/26 season were in the range of 14,650 - 14,900 yuan/ton (gross weight), with some lower prices in the 14,500 - 14,650 yuan/ton range. The pre - sale basis for the same quality was CF01 + 1000 - 1200, and the high - price quotes were 1200 - 1350, with delivery before the end of September and mid - October [7]. - The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Due to the recent decline in cotton prices, the cash flow of enterprises has improved, but the peak season in September was weaker than in previous years. The all - cotton grey fabric market also had a poor performance in September, lacking the characteristics of a peak season in terms of both volume and price. Some factories said that the current demand was mainly for rigid needs, and downstream customers were cautious in stockpiling [8]. - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was slightly adjusted down, the drought coverage in the cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained at a low level, and the overall market maintained a weak and volatile range. In the domestic market, the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% was around 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price was still around 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. As new cotton was gradually put on the market, the pre - sale quotes for the near - month of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase, and the overall quotes were stable with a slight decline compared to last week. The finished product inventory on the demand side was still stable with a slight decline, the market trading volume before the festival decreased, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand in the industry was lower than in the same period of previous years. In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, and after the festival, it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the closing price of CF2601 was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 245,440 and an open interest of 230,258, a decrease of 4,260. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the pre - sale market of new cotton was active [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, but after the festival, it would operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. 2. Industry News - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, last week, rainfall in most cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang affected the effect of defoliants, resulting in more green leaves remaining in the lower part of cotton plants, which postponed large - scale machine - picking. The cotton harvest has started in the northern Xinjiang region, and partial harvesting has begun in the southern Xinjiang region. However, the moisture content of newly harvested seed cotton is relatively high, and many enterprises have postponed the start of purchasing to ensure the quality of purchases. It is expected that large - scale harvesting will start in the whole region in early October. Last week, the price of lint cotton declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased accordingly. The price of machine - picked cotton was 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang was 7.1 - 7.3 yuan/kg, which was lower than that in the early part of the month. The enterprises that have purchased are generally cautious, closely following the market rhythm to control costs and reduce risks [9]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee, etc. The data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][26]