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白糖日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:52
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: SR601 closed at 5479 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.22%, with a position reduction of 10,429 contracts; SR605 closed at 5437 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.28%, with a position increase of 995 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 7452 contracts; US Sugar 05 closed at 15.89 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.57%, with a position increase of 3069 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly on Friday, while Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. Domestic spot prices in production areas slightly declined. Zhengzhou sugar has entered the pre-holiday adjustment period, with reduced volatility as funds seek risk aversion. Speculative short positions slightly decreased after the market [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil: Minas Gerais will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, with a decline in total output. As of the first half of September, the state had crushed 58.2 million tons of sugarcane, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output this season, a decrease of about 4.5% compared to the 2024/25 season. Analysts expect the sugar output in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons, with a 6.8% increase in sugarcane crushing volume to 45.92 million tons, but a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sugar content per ton of sugarcane to 153.84 kg. Ethanol output is expected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year to 2.37 billion liters [9] - Pakistan: The floods in 2025 have severely damaged Pakistan's agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million acres of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Major crops such as rice, sugarcane, and corn have been severely affected [9] - Global Sugar Market: StoneX expects a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. Improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will offset the expected decline in Europe [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures on spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][22]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:51
General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,290 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,174 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.19% [7]. - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,920 - 6,600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Arauco Silver Star in Shandong was 5,550 - 5,580 yuan/ton [7]. Company Quotes and Industry Data - Chile's Arauco Company announced its September wood pulp export prices: Silver Star softwood pulp was $700/ton, down $20/ton from last month; Venus natural pulp was $590/ton, unchanged from last month; Star hardwood pulp was $540/ton, up $20/ton from last month [8]. - In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 10.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7% [8]. - China's total pulp imports in August were 2.653 million tons, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month and a 5.6% decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of September 25, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.84% month - on - month [8]. Market Outlook - Before the holiday, the replenishment enthusiasm of the downstream base paper industry increased limitedly, and the demand growth was slow. As the holiday approached, market transactions slowed down, and demand support was limited. Near - month contracts were testing the cost line. In the short term, pulp prices would continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]. Industry News - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 2.293 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 18.8%; the printing and recording media reproduction industry achieved a total profit of 2.072 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [9]. - Chief statistician Yu Weining of the National Bureau of Statistics interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to August 2025, stating that due to multiple factors such as the effectiveness of macro - policies, the in - depth promotion of the national unified market, and the low base in the same period last year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size improved significantly, revenue remained stable, the equipment manufacturing industry played a key role, and the profits of different - sized enterprises improved [9]. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as European main port wood pulp inventory, domestic main port area pulp inventory, and prices and spreads of different types of paper [23][25]
建信期货MEG日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand and cost drivers of ethylene glycol (MEG) are insufficient at present. With the approaching National Day holiday, market participants are leaving the market to wait and see. It is expected that MEG may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 29th, the main contract of MEG futures opened at 4,215 yuan/ton, with the highest at 4,245 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4,209 yuan/ton, the settlement price at 4,225 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 115,895 lots, and the open interest was 320,886 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with an open interest of 320,886 lots, a decrease of 5,154 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with an open interest of 5,070 lots, an increase of 177 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the continuous attacks on a certain European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the prospect of additional sanctions by the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints were triggered. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest in nearly two months. Brent crude futures rose for four consecutive trading days and exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since August. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the November 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42; the settlement price of the November 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [8]. - **MEG Market in Zhangjiagang**: The spot negotiation price of MEG in Zhangjiagang this week (before September 30) was 4,288 - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation price before October 10 was 4,292 - 4,293 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price in late October was 4,294 - 4,296 yuan/ton. The basis of the current week's spot (before September 30) was at a premium of 64 - 66 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before October 10 was at a premium of 68 - 69 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis in late October was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. The mainstream transaction price of the MEG market in Zhangjiagang was 4,280 - 4,310 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].
建信期货PTA日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:49
Group 1: General Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: PTA Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 29th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,652 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.26%. The settlement price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 23,048 lots. The trading volume of TA2601 was 580,757 lots, a decrease of 23,048 lots. The closing price of TA2605 was 4,698 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 20,245 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots [6] - Market Outlook: The crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, which had a negative impact on market sentiment. Before the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the PTA spot market was dull, and market participants mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. With sufficient spot supply, the PTA market is expected to decline slightly [6] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: Affected by the continuous attacks on a European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints have increased. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest levels in nearly two months. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the WTI November 2025 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14%. The settlement price of the Brent November 2025 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% [7] - PX: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $815 - 817 per ton, up $2 per ton. The price in the South Korean market was estimated at $795 - 797 per ton, up $2 per ton. The PX market showed a slight increase, and the cargoes for November and December were traded at $816 per ton [7] - PTA in East China: The price of PTA in the East China market was stable at 4,597 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 54 yuan/ton compared to the futures contract 2601, up 13 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14] - Data Charts: Include charts on international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories [11][13][17]
建信期货国债日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:49
1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand repair foundation remains weak, and the policy - driven infrastructure investment has slowed down, dragging down overall investment. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low, and policies may focus on expanding fiscal, credit, and real - estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market [11]. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but there is still no clear breakthrough. Patience is needed to wait for better allocation value. Currently, with economic data released, the market focus should shift to the capital market and the stock - bond seesaw. Short - term bond varieties have higher certainty as cross - month funds are stable [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the performance of long - term bond varieties, while stable cross - month funds supported short - term varieties [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed slightly, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.8075%, up 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: Cross - quarter funds were stable. There were 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 2886 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Short - term capital rates rose slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits down 0.22bp to 1.3103%, the 7 - day rate up 3.17bp to 1.5873%, and medium - and long - term funds rising slightly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was 1.67% with little change [10] 4.2 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [13]. - On the morning of September 29, Premier Li Qiang met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son - hee, expressing China's willingness to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with North Korea [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan, all for supplementing project capital, and efforts are being made to invest the funds in specific projects [13]. - The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 29, with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96201 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79372 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the tax payable was 3.90125 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; and the asset - liability ratio was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Transaction data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 29 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. For example, the closing price of TL2512 was 113.720, down 0.540, with a decline of 0.47% [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank capital sentiment index, short - term and medium - long - term capital rates, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate is presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Diagrams of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) are mentioned [36]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:49
1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Researchers include Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash industry: The short - term contradiction has been alleviated, but the fundamental driving force is still insufficient. The supply is still in surplus, and the oversupply situation has not been effectively improved. The disk price is expected to oscillate weakly, mainly driven by macro - market sentiment [8] - Glass industry: The fundamentals are in a weak balance. The disk price is driven by macro - market sentiment and will gradually return to the fundamental logic, and may oscillate weakly in the short term [10] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 5.1.1 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 29, the price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated downward. The closing price was 1,273 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%, and the daily position decreased by 51,954 lots [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, with weekly production rising to 776,900 tons, the highest this year, a 4.19% month - on - month increase. There is no maintenance news, and production is expected to further increase. Demand is good, with total shipments reaching 881,000 tons, a 11.86% month - on - month increase. Downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is stable at 160,200 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass is 88,700 tons, with a potential production increase in the future. The factory inventory has decreased to 1.6515 million tons [8] 5.1.2 Glass - **Market Data**: The prices of FG601 and FG603 contracts decreased on September 29. FG601 closed at 1,228 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline; FG603 closed at 1,286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton, a 2.13% decline [7] - **Fundamentals**: The production of float and photovoltaic glass is stable. The market was previously driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but without relevant policies, the sentiment cooled down. In mid - September, the "anti - involution" sentiment reignited, and the spot price increased slightly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to support the glass price [9][10] 5.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [14][15][18]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:40
021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 29 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:9月26日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 1760 ...
白糖日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:21
1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - SR601 closed at 5478 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.35%, with a position of 427,474 contracts, a decrease of 3,875 contracts [7] - SR605 closed at 5442 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 0.38%, with a position of 66,060 contracts, an increase of 1,699 contracts [7] - US Sugar 03 closed at 16.29 cents/pound, up 0.16 cents or 0.99%, with a position of 466,347 contracts, an increase of 1,067 contracts [7] - US Sugar 05 closed at 15.82 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents or 0.64%, with a position of 134,435 contracts, a decrease of 535 contracts [7] Market Analysis - New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly, with the main March contract up 0.99% to 16.29 cents/pound [7] - London ICE white sugar futures' main December contract rose 0.9% to $462.90/ton [7] - Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. The 01 contract closed at 5478 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.35%, with a reduction of 3,875 contracts [8] - The spot price in domestic producing areas remained flat, with Nanning sugar at 5860 yuan and Kunming sugar at 5720 yuan [8] - Typhoon "Hagasa" had little impact on the main sugarcane areas in Guangxi, and the bullish sentiment dissipated [8] - After the market, speculative short positions were slightly reduced, possibly to reduce position risks before the long holiday [8] 3. Industry News - S&P Global Commodity Insights' survey showed that the sugar production in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons [9] - The cane crushing volume was expected to increase by 6.8% to 45.92 million tons, while the sugar content (ATR) in cane was expected to decline by 3.9% to 153.84 kg per ton of cane [9] - Ethanol production was expected to decrease by 3.4% to 2.37 billion liters [9] - StoneX reported that the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season starting in October was expected to have a supply surplus of 2.77 million tons [9] - Global sugar production was estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption was expected to be 194.7 million tons [9] - Brazil's shipping agency Williams data showed that as of the week of September 24, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 76, down from 85 the previous week [9] - The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.1039 million tons, down from 3.2827 million tons the previous week [9] 4. Data Overview - The report presented various figures including spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and trading positions [11][14][19]
建信期货MEG日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:21
Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Report Type: MEG Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: EG2601 closed at 4,213 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; EG2605 closed at 4,276 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 105,146 lots, and the open interest was 326,040 lots [7] - Market Outlook: The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is slightly weak, but due to factors such as intensified geopolitical conflicts, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil Market: European and American crude oil futures stabilized after hitting a seven - week high. WTI November 2025 futures settled at $64.98 per barrel, down $0.01 (0.02%); Brent November 2025 futures settled at $69.42 per barrel, up $0.11 (0.16%) [8] - Ethylene Glycol Market: In Zhangjiagang, the negotiation price for ethylene glycol before October 17 and in late October was 4,281 - 4,283 yuan/ton, with a basis premium of 68 - 70 yuan/ton over EG2601 [8] - Industry Operation: The operations of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester were stable [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Graphs: Include graphs of MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures prices, raw material price indices, PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories [10][15][16][18] - Data Source: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][8][11]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250929
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 04:21
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review - **Contract performance**: - For the "Doupo 2601" contract, the previous settlement price was 2961, opening at 2972, with a high of 2973, a low of 2930, and closing at 2937, down 24 or -0.81%, with a trading volume of 1050116 and an open interest of 1986148, an increase of 48684 [6]. - The "Doupo 2509" contract had a previous settlement of 2870, opened at 2877, high of 2877, low of 2855, and closed at 2858, down 12 or -0.42%, with a volume of 6058 and an open - interest of 43565, an increase of 343 [6]. - The "Doupo 2511" contract had a previous settlement of 2934, opened at 2942, high of 2946, low of 2898, and closed at 2905, down 29 or -0.99%, with a volume of 86345 and an open - interest of 454900, a decrease of 24736 [6]. - **External market situation**: The US soybean futures contract on the external market oscillated, with the main contract at 1010 cents [6]. - **Policy change**: The Argentine government announced on Monday to suspend export taxes on all grains and by - products such as soybean oil and soybean meal. The previous export tariff for Argentine soybeans was 26%, and for soybean oil and soybean meal was 24.5%. After reducing the tariff to 0, the CIF price of Argentine soybeans to China is 30 - 50 dollars/ton lower than that of the US without considering tariffs [6]. - **Supply analysis**: Some domestic oil mills have started to actively purchase Argentine soybeans, and there have been successive orders for Argentine soybean meal since mid - to - late August. The procurement volume for September and October is sufficient, indicating overall supply security until the end of November. The potential supply reduction from December to January needs to closely track Argentine soybean procurement. Argentina and Brazil's remaining soybeans can make up for the approximately 1200 million tons of US soybeans purchased during the November - January shipping period last year. However, two points need attention: the Argentine export tariff reduction policy lasts until October 31, and the 12 - 1 January shipping period may rely on Brazilian soybeans; also, the Sino - US negotiation situation [6]. - **Price trend**: The previous logic of soybean shortage has loosened. With frequent consultations between China and the US and high inventory in reality, prices have dropped significantly. Before the National Day, there is a lack of potential positive factors and the technical indicators are weak. It is recommended to reduce positions to avoid risks. Some potential positives, such as the expected reduction of US soybean yield per unit and dry weather in Brazil, are unlikely to be reflected in the market in the short term. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level after a rapid decline before the holiday [6]. Group 3: Industry News - **USDA quarterly inventory report**: Analysts' average estimate of US soybean inventory on September 1 is 323 million bushels, with an estimated range of 295 - 360 million bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year. The USDA on September 12 reported an estimated year - end inventory of 330 million bushels for the 2024/2025 US soybean season. Analysts expect the report to show that the 2024 US soybean production will be revised to 4366 million bushels, with an estimated range of 4350 - 4391 million bushels [7][8]. - **USDA export sales report**: As of the week ending September 18, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, in line with expectations. The net increase in current - market - year US soybean export sales was 724,500 tons, and the market expected a net increase of 600,000 - 1,600,000 tons. The net increase in next - year's US soybean export sales was 0 tons. The US soybean export shipments were 512,400 tons. The new sales of current - market - year US soybeans were 727,600 tons, and the new sales of next - market - year soybeans were 0 tons [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report mentions multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the "Doupo 01" contract, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Center of CCB Futures [14][16][13]