金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据 【市场资讯】1）中国财政部长蓝佛安：将不新增隐性债务作为"铁的纪律"。2）美国就业 市场降温信号显现：今年企业裁员人数创 2020 年以来新高。3）美国 10 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 不升反降至 48.7%，连续八个月萎缩，需求和就业疲软，通胀降温；欧元区 10 月制造 业 PMI 终值 50，德、法持续萎缩，新订单疲软拖累复苏进程。4）美联储理事米兰：美联 储政策过于紧缩，应通过一系列 50 基点降息实现中性利率；美联储理事库克被特朗普起 诉以来首次公开讲话：还没就 12 月降息做决定。5）美国财政部将本季借款预期规模下调 210 亿美元至 5690 亿，因手头现金余额超预期充裕。6）美国政府停摆影响航空安全，美 国交通部长：如有必要将关闭全国领空。 【核心逻辑】"十五五" 规划建议稿正式发布，可依据规划建议稿明确的重点领域，锁定未 来核心关注方向。同时，中美经贸团队于吉隆坡磋商达成阶段性共识，将在未来一年内减 弱关税政策对市场的扰动，边际提升市场风险偏好，推动相关资产逐步回归基本面定价。 中美贸易摩擦本质上是一场持久战，矛盾的缓和需要时间积累，难以通过单次磋商实现 ...

南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 ——宏观利好情绪消退，基本面担忧主导胶价 1.1 核心矛盾 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月3日 上周橡胶持续走高后，周四周五又大幅回踩。由于前期橡胶尤其RU估值偏低，上游利润低，干胶显性库存维 持去库，盘面存在一定支撑。且前期交易重心倾向宏观预期。美联储如期降息、国内"十五五规划"一系列政 策、中美领导人会面和中美经贸磋商结果等因素助暖宏观氛围。地缘关系紧张有所减退，带来市场整体风险 偏好恢复，从而推高宏观情绪。但随着宏观利好预期兑现，情绪消退使得橡胶回归基本面定价，而国内10月 PMI数据表现不容乐观，为历史10年低位。而从产业来看，下游汽车配套产销与出口表现良好， 近期雪地胎 等部分缺货支撑下游开工，但橡胶进一步上涨抑制采购需求，但库存压力仍存 ，导致下游交投意愿弱。海内 外天气扰动不大的情况下，市场对于天胶供应上量预期较强，而合成胶的供给宽松与成本端疲弱进一步拖累 橡胶系整体价格。整体来看，RU估值不高且成本端存在支撑 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/3 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周一期债整体下跌，TS跌幅较为显著，其余品种震荡微跌。资金面宽松，DR001在1.31%附近。公开市场逆 回购783亿，净回笼2590亿。 重要资讯： 1.潘功胜：研究和储备应对宏观经济、金融市场波动等领域的政策工具；持续整治金融业"内卷式"竞争、资金 空转；不断增强央行政策利率的作用，收窄短期利率走廊的宽度。 2.证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引（征求意见稿）》，基金业协会同步发布《公开募集 证券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则（征求意见稿）》。 行情研判： 今日股债继续独立运行，午后A股回升未对债市造成影响。目前债市对央行购债基本定价完毕，消息面较为清 淡导致短期缺乏交易热点。关注随后发布的经济数据是否带来一定的交易动力。操作上维持多头思路，中期 多单继续持有，短期不追高，等待回落做多。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures prices showed a wide - range oscillation, while offset paper futures prices opened with a significant increase and then maintained an oscillation. In the spot market, pulp prices in some paper mills increased slightly, and the supply - side pressure eased due to partial mill maintenance. The downstream paper - using开工率 (operating rates) showed mixed trends, and cultural paper consumption did not continue the positive year - on - year growth in August. Port inventories remained relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, some companies raised their quotes, which was favorable for futures prices. Overall, pulp and offset paper may be relatively oscillatory or slightly bullish in the short term [4]. - For pulp, the strategy is to go long at low prices or wait and see in the futures market, and sell out - of - the - money put options on far - month contracts in the options market. For offset paper, it is recommended to wait and see in both the futures and options markets [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pulp is predicted to be 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.19% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 16.95%. For offset paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 7.96% and a historical percentile of 39.39% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 5400 - 5500 and OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (e.g., SP2601C5300 and OP2601C4400) when volatility is appropriate to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, they can buy pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 4950 - 5050 and OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (e.g., SP2512P4850 and OP2601P4050) when volatility is appropriate to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - **Futures Price Movement**: Pulp futures prices oscillated widely, and offset paper futures prices opened higher and then oscillated [4]. - **Spot Price**: Pulp spot prices in some regions increased by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, and some offset paper companies raised their quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure eased due to mill maintenance, downstream operating rates showed mixed trends, cultural paper consumption did not continue the growth in August, and port inventories were relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some companies were favorable for futures prices, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Paper companies raised the quotes of various types of paper, the Fed has a rate - cut expectation, and overseas broad - leaf pulp production shifted, reduced, and prices rose [7][12] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - There is a possibility of a decrease in overseas shipping costs, port inventories are high and difficult to reduce, and downstream demand is weak during the peak season [12] 3.5 Basis and Price Difference - **Pulp Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in pulp basis for different varieties and contracts are provided, and the seasonal chart of pulp basis (Shandong Yinxing) is also presented [9][10]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in offset paper basis for different contracts are provided [9][10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and price differences of pulp and offset paper futures contracts are given [15]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of pulp and offset paper are provided [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, soybeans defied the pattern of being more likely to fall than rise, with the futures main contract 01 rising over 5% and spot prices increasing to varying degrees. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the market fundamentals have shifted, with new - season soybeans potentially ending the bottom - probing process and later showing a bottom - confirmation and oscillating upward trend [1]. - In the long run, domestic soybean prices may break out of the bottom - range oscillation, and the annual price center of gravity may shift upward significantly [6]. - The supply of medium - and high - protein soybeans will decline, and the rigid edible consumption is expected to continuously support the prices of relevant soybean sources, with the feature of high - quality at high - price persisting until the next supply season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Multiple factors such as the sellers' price - holding, southern产区's reduced production, and rigid repayment demand led to the anti - seasonal rise of soybeans in October. The increased acquisition of Northeast soybeans due to southern产区's reduced production was the core driving force [1]. - In the short term, beware of the risk of selling pressure emerging due to price stagnation, especially near the end of the year. The resumption of US soybean imports will suppress the sentiment of soybean price increases, especially for medium - and low - protein soybeans [5]. - The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, and the import soybean gap and arrival volume at the end of the fourth quarter and early next year will have a key impact on the consumption of domestic medium - and low - protein soybeans [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish trend; **Technical View**: Pay attention to short - term pull - back confirmation and focus on the 20 - day moving average support; **Strategy View**: Overall, wait and see, wait for the pull - back confirmation, and pay attention to low - price inventory hedging at high prices in the short term [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: The weekly spot - futures market prices stagnated, and the basis of 39 - protein soybeans was neutral. It is recommended to wait and see. **Spread Strategy**: The difference between near - and far - month contracts changed insignificantly. Consider selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [6]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Hold short - term hedging for contract 01 above 4100; Wait for the price to fall before making forward purchases [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast for Contract 01**: 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.36% and a historical percentile of 25.9% [6]. - **Risk Strategy**: For inventory management of growers, when the selling pressure is high, short - sell soybean futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio above 4100; sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter before making forward purchases [6]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The spot market sentiment was stable, and prices remained high but stagnated. There were no auction arrangements this week [8]. - **Negative Information**: The transaction volume of state - reserve auctions was limited, and the market demand focused on high - protein soybeans. The resumption of US soybean imports due to Sino - US negotiations will be negative for domestic medium - and low - protein soybean prices [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The import rhythm of US soybeans will become clearer. Observe whether selling pressure emerges actively after the spot price stagnates [7][9]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the last week of October, soybean prices stagnated at a high level, with a weekly decline of - 0.05%, forming a doji candlestick. Trading volume and open interest remained high, and the registered warehouse receipts were 7238 lots [9]. - **Basis Structure**: During the week, the spot - futures prices of domestic soybeans consolidated at a high level after a rebound, and the basis changed little. **Spread Structure**: Contract 11 was weak, while contract 01 was strong, and the overall spread change was insignificant [17][19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the price of 39 - protein clean grains oscillated at 2 yuan per catty, and the planting profit increased significantly compared to the previous year. Mid - stream trading enterprises' willingness to store grains increased, but the profit of building warehouses and storing grains was uncertain. Down - stream demand was active, high - protein soybeans were in short supply, and prices were firm. The crushing profit changed slightly, and oil mills' acquisition was at a moderate level [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans in the new season will decrease due to the increase in high - oil soybean area in the Northeast and the reduced production in the South. It will take about 10 months until the next effective supply, and the supply of high - protein soybeans will gradually tighten. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the change in oil mills' acquisition intensity caused by soybean meal price fluctuations [33][34]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - In the last week of October, the edible consumption market of domestic soybeans turned from off - season to peak season, with demand mainly for high - protein soybeans. Near the end of the year, downstream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the prices of high - quality soybeans. The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the performance of soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Pay attention to the arrival quantity in December and soybean meal prices to see if the crushing demand can have a phased increase similar to last year [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of new - season corn in October has been effectively released, with prices hitting the bottom and rebounding. In November, the supply - side pressure will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - The domestic corn production increase trend is certain, and the market continues to digest the price pressure brought by the increase. The price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. The probability of forming an important bottom in the price is relatively high in the fourth - quarter supply - peak period [8]. - In 2026, the pig production capacity control measures may gradually show results, which may have a negative impact on the corn feed demand situation, while the deep - processing demand situation is stable [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - side situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 85%. Corn harvest is basically completed except in some late - harvest areas. The supply is still in a loose period, and the most obvious impact stage of concentrated listing on corn prices may have ended in October. The supply pressure in November will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - **Price performance**: Last week, the spot price was in a stable consolidation stage after the first - round impact of new - season grain sources. The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend, and the starch market was relatively stable [2]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the domestic corn price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. In the long - term, the domestic corn supply - demand contradiction has eased, and the price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter. However, in 2026, the pig production capacity control may affect the corn feed demand [8]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The current futures price is in the second - round bottom - testing process, and the 2100 - yuan mark support is effective in the short - term. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see when entering the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range. Options can consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range shock [9]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis spread has little change, and no strategy is recommended. The 1 - 5 spread of corn has narrowed, and the spread structure is relatively steep. It is not suitable for hedging in the raw material and feed demand ends for now. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [9][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The price range of corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, and that of starch is 2350 - 2550 yuan [21]. - **Risk strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The state reserve continues to purchase to support the market, the North China purchase and sales have recovered, the spot price is stable, the agricultural product trade situation is expected to improve, the cold weather is conducive to grain storage, and the deep - processing acquisition willingness is strong [25]. - **Negative information**: The corn market harvest is gradually ending, but the new - grain listing level is high, and the price pressure is still large [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Event Attention - Pay attention to the auction purchase transaction situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation, the price - support strength of the state reserve acquisition in the Northeast, and whether the corn report guidance affected by the US government shutdown can be restored [26]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend last week, with the main 01 contract slightly down 3 yuan/ton. The starch market was relatively stable, and the main 01 contract of starch was down 1 yuan/ton, performing slightly stronger than the corn disk [2][25]. - **Fund flow**: The total position of the corn 01 contract increased, and the trading volume decreased. The total position and trading volume of the starch 01 contract were basically the same as the previous week [25]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The basis structure changed little, and the term - spread structure of corn was still relatively steep. The near - far - month spread slightly shrank. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [32][39][55]. 3.2 External Market - The CBOT corn futures closed higher last week, but the futures price fell from the short - term high due to the disappointment of bullish expectations. The US spot corn harvest is in the final stage, and the market is waiting for relevant data guidance [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: The planting profit is better than last year, especially in the Northeast and other yield - increasing areas [64]. - **Trading profit**: As the corn price stabilizes, traders are cautious in building inventories, and there is a small amount of trading profit [64]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The corn starch profit continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry has significantly declined [64]. - **Disk profit**: The basis of Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. It is not suitable to enter the market for hedging, but enterprises with low inventory - building costs can pay attention to far - month hedging [64]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has decreased due to the rise in the external market [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China's corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The sown area, output, and total supply of corn have increased in recent years. The consumption is relatively stable, and the annual surplus has fluctuated [70]. - **Global corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The global corn supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory - consumption ratio has decreased [71]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is in the stage of declining from the peak. The selling pressure will decrease with the drop in temperature in the Northeast. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level [73]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of northern ports has stopped rising, and the inventory of southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall low inventory provides space for later corn purchase and sales activities [75]. - **Foreign corn**: The US corn futures price rose, but the lack of corn purchase commitments in the Sino - US trade agreement limited its upward space. The impact on China is limited [77]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The pig breeding profit has recovered, but the pig production capacity reduction may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [79]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn attracts downstream enterprises to increase their start - up rates, and the consumption of corn is expected to increase [83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 南华期货原油产业周报 2025年11月3日 —— 短期利好出尽，基本面回归主导 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场的核心矛盾在于短期地缘与宏观利好已基本消化，市场驱动进入真空期，关注点重回基本面但 压力未获缓解，叠加 OPEC + 会议不确定性，致使盘面陷入低位震荡且存在回落风险。此前，地缘风险利 好、中美经贸关系改善及美联储降息预期等宏观利好已悉数落地，金融市场未再解读出强支撑，原油盘面形 成 60-65 美元新震荡区间，波动重心较前期明显下移，情绪溢价仍需回落修复。后续关键变量集中在 11 月 2 日 OPEC + 会议，伊拉克寻求将原油配额从 440 万桶 / 日提升至 550 万桶 / 日，其过往 "不良记录" 可能阻碍 会议达成一致，引发结果超预期风险。整体来看，在无新突发利好的情况下，基本面压制未缓解，原油短线 大概率在震荡区间内继续回落，消化前期情绪溢价。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右 ...

期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 03 日 该来的都会来 本周主要观点： 当下大环境是宏观需求面偏弱，部分品种此前产业利润偏 高，有补跌的需求。但从估值来说，整体估值偏低，大部分品种 追空的意义不大，选择等待或许是最佳选择。下跌过程也是检验 基本面最好的办法，只有那些真正具备基本面改善的品种，才能 在市场整体下跌过程中表现出持久抗跌。可以关注几类：一是持 续背离结构的品种；二是下跌增仓放量且抗跌的品种。 风险点：反内卷政策落实、宏观政策变化、产业供应变化； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 该来的都会来 期货策略周报 I 2025 年 11 月 03 日 周行情观点综述 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 按照宏观需求逻辑来看，甲醇此前的生产利润偏高，甲醇近期的走弱，可以理 解为补跌。在宏观需求整体偏弱的背景下，产业利润偏高，难以持续长久，估值回 落是大概率事 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for caustic soda is weaker than expected, with non - aluminum sectors showing no obvious restocking behavior and speculative demand remaining subdued. As maintenance work concludes, supply pressure is rising, and the strong price of liquid chlorine is weakening cost support [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase of caustic soda. There are limited overall contradictions, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are falling short of expectations, leading to a judgment of weak and volatile prices. It is recommended to adopt range - bound trading strategies within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The overall spot market is weak, with non - aluminum restocking falling short of expectations. Alumina is under pressure, with local supply adjustments and a slight decline in operating rates, which may affect the demand outlook for caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent strength of liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Production is increasing, and supply pressure persists [1]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: High profits limit price increases. In the medium - to - long term, there is continued pressure from new production capacity. The realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased restocking rhythm [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall contradictions are limited, but near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. It is recommended to trade within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Current short positions on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot market hitting bottom [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.75% and a historical percentile of 43.8% over three years [7]. - **Risk management strategy recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Factory - gate prices**: The factory - gate prices of 32% caustic soda in various regions on October 31, 2025, mostly remained unchanged compared to the previous day, except for a 1.5% decrease in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The prices of 50% caustic soda and flake caustic soda also showed little change, with a 1.5% decrease in Shandong flake caustic soda [8][9]. - **Price differentials**: The price differentials between different grades and regions of caustic soda were mostly stable on October 31, 2025, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the price differential of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong [9]. - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 31, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 0.12%, the 09 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the 01 contract decreased by 0.3%. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are still expectations for downstream aluminum plants to stock up on caustic soda from November to December, which may boost the spot market [10]. - **Negative information**: Caustic soda production continues to recover, increasing supply pressure. Non - aluminum sectors have not shown concentrated restocking. The high price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether liquid chlorine prices will continue to rise, which would further weaken the cost support for caustic soda. - Observe the mid - and downstream demand, especially whether non - aluminum sectors will show restocking signs. - Monitor whether inventory accumulation continues [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week, with the absolute price reaching a relatively low level for the year. This is mainly related to market sentiment and weak market conditions, as non - aluminum downstream restocking in the short - term fell short of expectations [14]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot market remained stable, with the 32% caustic soda from Shandong Jinling converted to the futures price at 2406 yuan/ton, with a premium of 95 - 100 yuan over the 01 contract. The spot market was weak, and the 12 - 01 spread was positive [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine was strong, resulting in high chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it is 200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [21]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars week - on - week to around 460 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution effect on overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [28]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda prices**: The report provides historical price trends of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and flake caustic soda in different regions, as well as price differentials between regions and grades, and spot - to - futures conversion prices [30][35][40]. - **External market prices**: It shows the historical price trends of caustic soda in international markets such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [84]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Production losses**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly production losses of caustic soda [93]. - **Liquid caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly and monthly production and operating rates of liquid caustic soda in different regions are provided, showing an overall upward trend in production and relatively stable operating rates [95][96]. - **Flake caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly production and operating rates of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented, with production and operating rates also showing certain trends [105]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Downstream product data**: It includes the spot price, cost, and profit of alumina, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [112][113]. - **Export structure**: The export structure of caustic soda by continent is shown [119]. 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions and the overall inventory trends are provided [121][124]. - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented [140][142].