Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with a high probability that Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. Market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts after his appointment, but implementation is uncertain due to factors like Powell's term, economy, and inflation, leading to a structural differentiation in asset prices. The market has fully priced in a rate cut in December's Fed meeting, and investors need to be wary of "selling the fact" trades and subsequent adjustments in rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, pay attention to the impact of November's non - farm payroll data on policy expectations. In China, the November manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2%, mainly benefiting from the rebound in external demand. The narrowing of the supply - demand gap and the recovery of the price index confirm the marginal improvement of the economy, but the PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating that the foundation for economic improvement is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and subsequent attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The unexpectedly improved US employment indicators drove the US dollar index up. The Fed's upcoming meeting is likely to feature a "hawkish rate cut," with limited negative impact on the US dollar. In China, positive macro - policies support the RMB against the US dollar. Future focus should be on US economic data in November, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, the Central Economic Work Conference, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.10, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.05 [4]. - The stock index market remains cautious before all important meetings are concluded. It is expected that the market volatility will increase this week, and the operation idea remains neutral - to - bullish, but beware of the A - share market's downward pressure if the signals from domestic and foreign meetings fall short of expectations [5]. - The short - term rebound space of treasury bonds is limited. Although the Politburo meeting's tone on monetary policy has calmed the market, the short - term monetary policy may not be loosened quickly. The medium - term policy still has room, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [6]. - For container shipping on the European line, the implementation of the spot market price increase plan remains the focus. The market is affected by a combination of macro sentiment and geopolitical situation. The price may fluctuate in the short term due to the coexistence of long and short factors [7][9]. - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. It is recommended to pay attention to the abnormal term structure of platinum and buy on dips. Palladium is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile market in the short term. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short term and rise in the long term [11][13]. - For copper, the market's expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has cooled, and copper prices are adjusting at a high level. The short - term strategy is to observe more and act less in the next two days, and enterprises in need of raw materials can look for opportunities to buy [15][18]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish. Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term; tin is expected to have a wide - range volatile market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips; lead is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19][20]. - For black commodities, steel products are expected to trade in a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil may be between 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices are expected to have limited downward space. Coking coal and coke prices are under short - term pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile and weak [22][23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices are in an oscillating downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. LPG is expected to maintain a volatile trend. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations. Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a weak outlook. PP and PE are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be in an oscillating and consolidating state. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are recommended to be watched. Asphalt is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. Rubber is expected to be in a range - bound volatile market. Urea is expected to continue an oscillating trend. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be weak. Pulp may have a certain downward space, and offset paper can be slightly chased for long. Logs are expected to have low - volatility oscillations and low trading volume. Propylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile trend [29][30][31][37][38][41][44][46][47][48][49][50][52][53][54][56][57][58][59][61][63][67]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the long - term can be bullish, but the short - to - medium - term is mainly based on fundamentals. For oilseeds, the external soybean market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the internal soybean meal market has limited downward space. For oils and fats, the market is expected to be in an oscillating state, waiting for data guidance. For cotton, the downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level around 13800. For sugar, the price is expected to remain weak. For eggs, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in surplus, and the price pressure is relatively large. For apples, the overall trend is strong. For jujubes, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream pre - holiday procurement [68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US employment indicators unexpectedly improved. Overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy direction and the next Fed Chair appointment. The market anticipates a rate cut in December, but there is uncertainty. In China, the November manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the Politburo meeting set a positive tone for policies [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The unexpectedly improved US employment indicators drove the US dollar index up. The Fed's meeting may feature a "hawkish rate cut." China's positive macro - policies support the RMB. Attention should be paid to US economic data, Fed Chair appointment, Central Economic Work Conference, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange [3]. - **Stock Index**: The market is cautious before all important meetings. It is expected that market volatility will increase this week, and the operation idea is neutral - to - bullish, but beware of downward pressure if meeting signals fall short of expectations [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term rebound space of treasury bonds is limited. The Politburo meeting's tone on monetary policy has calmed the market, but short - term monetary policy may not be loosened quickly. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The implementation of the spot market price increase plan is the focus. The market is affected by macro sentiment and geopolitical situation, with short - term price fluctuations due to long and short factors [7][9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They oscillated upward. In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up prices. It is recommended to pay attention to platinum's term structure and buy on dips. Palladium is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: Silver reached a new high. The short - term is expected to be volatile and consolidating, and the long - term is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's FOMC meeting, COMEX contract delivery, and other factors [13][14]. - **Copper**: The market's expectation of a 2026 rate cut has cooled, and copper prices are adjusting at a high level. The short - term strategy is to observe more and act less, and enterprises in need of raw materials can look for buying opportunities [15][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, with strong short - term fundamental support and limited downward space [19]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range volatile market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. Attention should be paid to the Fed's rate - meeting expectations [20]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be strongly volatile, with support from the cost of recycled lead and the demand for automobile batteries [21]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a weak and volatile state. The overall steel price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed and downstream consumption [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space, with support from steel mills' pre - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the Fed's and domestic economic work meetings [24][25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to steel mills' price - cut rhythm [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to be volatile and weak, facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand [27][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has subsided, and prices are falling. The medium - to - long - term supply surplus pressure remains, and the price is in an oscillating downward trend [29][30]. - **LPG**: It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, affected by fundamentals, macro, and geopolitical factors [30][31]. - **PX - PTA**: They are weakening with the decline in demand and commodity sentiment. The short - term is expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to PTA device dynamics [31][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The terminal demand is declining, and the supply - side negative feedback is emerging. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35][37]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract is expected to have a weak outlook. Attention should be paid to Iran's shipping speed, inland supply - demand after Jiutai's recovery, and Lianhong's startup [38]. - **PP**: The valuation is extremely compressed, and further shorting is not recommended. Attention should be paid to PDH device operation changes and the spot market [39][41]. - **PE**: It is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the short - term is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the spot market and basis changes [42][44]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are in an oscillating and consolidating state. Pure benzene has a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene has a near - strong and far - weak pattern [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak, and it is recommended to watch [47]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is low, and it is recommended to watch [48]. - **Asphalt**: Attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. The short - term is expected to be volatile, and options or basis trading can be considered [49][50]. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand pressure is large, and it is expected to be in a range - bound volatile market. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low [50][52]. - **Urea**: It is expected to continue an oscillating trend, with high supply pressure but supported by export policies [53][54]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to be weak. Soda ash has an increasing surplus expectation; glass's near - month contract follows the reality, and the far - month is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda's demand is weakening and the supply is high [54][56][57][58][59]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp may have a certain downward space, and offset paper can be slightly chased for long. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [59][61]. - **Logs**: They are in a low - volatility oscillating state with low trading volume. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - Japanese relations on Japanese cedar imports [61][63]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to be in a weakly volatile trend, with a weak fundamental situation and cost - side support [66][67]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The long - term can be bullish, but the short - to - medium - term is based on fundamentals. The near - month has出栏 pressure, and the far - month is affected by expectations [68]. - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the internal soybean meal market has limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the US soybean procurement progress and domestic supply expectations [68][69][70]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, waiting for data guidance. Attention should be paid to the origin's weather and policies [69][70][71]. - **Cotton**: The downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level around 13800 [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The price is expected to remain weak, affected by the supply pressure from major producing countries [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is in surplus, and the price pressure is large. The short - term may have a rebound, and it is recommended to go long with a light position [75]. - **Apples**: The overall trend is strong, with the 01 contract being strong and the 05 contract falling [76]. - **Jujubes**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream pre - holiday procurement [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The external market of US soybeans focuses on whether the 53 bushels per acre yield in the December supply and demand report has a continued downward trend. The US claims that China will purchase 12 million tons of soybeans, but as of now, China has only completed less than 40% of the purchase, and the completion date may be postponed. It's necessary to consider whether the annual balance sheet of US soybeans can maintain stable export demand. If the inventory remains at around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear unilateral driving force and will follow the US market in the short - term. In the medium - term, the shipping schedule of China's US soybean purchases and the scale of state reserve releases will determine the domestic supply in the first quarter [1]. - Rapeseed meal is in a state of both weak supply and demand. The current rapeseed inventory and crushing have been exhausted, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also declining rapidly. However, due to the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expectation of supply recovery, the rapeseed meal market is weak. Moreover, it is currently the off - season for aquatic consumption, so the demand growth is limited, and the rapeseed meal inventory is expected to increase in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market of US soybeans has uncertainties in supply (potential yield reduction) and demand (China's slow purchase pace). The domestic soybean meal market lacks a clear driving force and is affected by China's purchase of US soybeans and state reserve releases [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. Although the current inventory is low, the expected supply recovery and weak demand in the off - season lead to an expected increase in inventory [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market trend is weak and declining [19]. - **Price Range**: The M2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 3200. After the contract switch, M2603 and M2605 may reach previous low levels [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or exit the previously sold 3300 call options on M2601; reduce the position of the previously sold 2600 call options on rapeseed meal 2601 as the option approaches expiration; consider short - selling M2603 and M2605 [19]. 1.2.1 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: In the previous period, the basis operation could be considered around 170 - 150 for M1 - 5. In the absence of a basis purchase, consider one - time price purchases during the downward cycle [20]. - **Spread Strategy**: Previously, the M1 - 5 spread was considered to stop falling around 170, and a positive spread trading idea should be maintained before downstream contract roll - over [20]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal 2601 and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is around (650, 700) [20]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 8.5% and a historical percentile of 3.1% in the past 3 years. The price range of rapeseed meal is predicted to be 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 0.9% in the past 3 years [22]. - **Hedging Strategy**: - **Traders**: Short 25% of the M2605 contract at 2850 - 2900 to hedge the risk of inventory value decline [22]. - **Feed Mills**: Long 50% of the M2605 contract at 2700 - 2750 to lock in the purchase cost [22]. - **Oil Mills**: Short 50% of the M2605 contract at 2850 - 2950 to lock in profits and offset production costs [22]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts showed different degrees of decline. The price of CBOT soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [23]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also showed various changes. The basis of soybean meal in Rizhao and rapeseed meal in Fujian showed different trends [23]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans decreased, and the pressing profits of US and Brazilian soybeans also changed. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed also showed certain fluctuations [24]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US government will announce a $12 billion agricultural assistance plan. As of December 4, the sowing of 2025/26 Brazilian soybeans was 94% complete. China's state - owned grain reserve company COFCO will auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans [26][27]. - **Negative Information**: The US soybean exports to China decreased compared with the same period in previous years. The net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased [29]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a short - term basis [30]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monday: Domestic weekly inventory data, USDA export sales report. - Tuesday: USDA export inspection report, Brazil Secex weekly report. - Wednesday: CFTC agricultural product position report, USDA monthly supply and demand report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position [35]. Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: - **Unilateral Trend**: The domestic soybean meal market followed the external market and declined. The rapeseed meal market also declined due to the news of Australian rapeseed imports [34]. - **Capital Flow**: Key profitable seats in soybean meal and rapeseed meal reduced long positions and increased short positions. The market sentiment index was average according to the soybean meal option PCR [34]. - **Spread Structure**: The spread between different futures contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is mainly related to the seasonal supply. This week, the spread between January and May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthened due to the decline of the May contract [40]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of soybean meal remained stable, while the basis of rapeseed meal declined. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased. The far - month basis is expected to remain stable, and the spread is expected to maintain a positive spread [45]. - **External Market**: - **External Trend**: The external market declined due to China's slow purchase pace, the US crop subsidy policy, and the exit of long - position funds before the USDA report [56]. - **Capital Position**: The CFTC data is lagging and has no reference value. It is expected to return to normal progress in January [62]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Regional Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in the US soybean - producing area decreased slightly, while the profit in the Brazilian and Argentine producing areas increased. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed increased due to the decline in rapeseed prices [68]. 4.2 Import - Export and Pressing Profit Tracking - Recently, US soybeans declined, and the domestic market followed suit. The news of state reserve releases led to a greater decline in the domestic market, and the profit of purchasing ships decreased [72]. - Regarding supply and ship - purchasing, the sentiment for purchasing Brazilian soybeans is average, and the far - month US soybean purchases will be carried out through state reserve rotation. The purchase of rapeseed is expected to remain cautious due to the import margin factor [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - **US**: The US soybean production in November is expected to be 4.3 billion bushels, a decrease of 48 million bushels from the September forecast, mainly due to the decline in yield. The export volume is expected to be 1.64 billion bushels, a decrease of 50 million bushels from the previous forecast. The pressing volume remains unchanged, and the ending inventory is expected to decline slightly. The average seasonal price is expected to increase by $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel [95][96][97]. - **Global**: In the 2025/26 global soybean supply - demand forecast for November, the beginning inventory and production decreased, the pressing volume decreased by 1.7 million tons, the export volume increased by 200,000 tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 2 million tons [98][99][100]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - **Soybean Import**: The purchase sentiment of Brazilian soybeans is average, and the far - month US soybean purchases are mainly through state reserve rotation. The expected arrival volume of soybeans in December is 7.5 million tons, 6 million tons in January, and 5 million tons in February. The rapeseed import remains at a low level [101]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The domestic soybean pressing volume is expected to remain high, but the domestic soybean meal consumption is difficult to increase significantly after the previous high - level stocking [103]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter and stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The domestic soybean meal inventory is also expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [105].

陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月09日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场趋势性利多不足，核心驱动依然在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心矛盾主要为以下几点： 南华期货油脂产业周报 ——油脂区间震荡为主，等待报告指引 3、中加和谈依然没有向好趋势，菜系后市供应依然有偏紧预期，关注进一步信息。 4、国内三大油脂总体供应依然充足，短期仍有压力，其中菜油维持去库，豆棕油库存压力仍较大。 综上，短期弱现实压制油脂上行动力，盘面宽幅震荡运行，等待最终美国能源政策是否提振油脂市场， 及印尼B50进一步消息。策略上因趋势线驱动不足，短线对待为主，由于棕榈油即将进入减产季，叠加明年东 南亚地区斋月提前，远月P05合约在8300元/吨附近位置或有支撑；棕榈油产地压力逐渐减弱后性价比提升， 菜棕、豆棕价差或缩窄。 马来西亚棕榈油精炼olein现货FOB季节性 source： 路透,南华研究 美元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 0 ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/12/09 靳晚冬（投资咨询证号：Z0022725） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 8.5% | 3.1% | | 菜粕：2250-2750 | 9.8% | 0.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 2850-290 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 5 | | | 0 | | 饲料厂采购 管理 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年12月09日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强支撑位：83000 | 56.7% | 88.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 推荐套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 远月期货合约 | 买入 | 10% | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划，担 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产 | LC2605-P-83000 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 关性 | 心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨导 | 计划需买入对应生产计划的期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report focuses on the impact of weather on natural rubber production in major global producing areas, with a particular emphasis on rainfall. It provides detailed weather forecasts and rainfall data for various regions, highlighting how weather conditions such as temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events can affect rubber tree growth, tapping progress, and overall production [2][203]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings - **China**: Yunnan is in the pre - stop - tapping transition, with low temperatures and a coming cold snap that may affect production. Hainan is in the pre - stop - tapping up - volume stage, with suitable temperatures and reduced rainfall conducive to tapping [2]. - **Thailand**: Northern and northeastern regions have light rain and smooth tapping. The southern region's flood has eased, but new rainfall is expected [2]. - **Vietnam**: Rainfall decreased significantly in the coming week after being affected by rain in November [2]. - **Other Regions**: Different regions such as Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, South Asia, and West Africa have their own unique weather conditions and impacts on rubber production [5][6]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides a table of weekly precipitation in major natural rubber producing areas, including current month cumulative precipitation, year - on - year change, last week's cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, and precipitation forecasts for this week and the next week [8][10]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - Tropical low - pressure activity is low in the Northern Hemisphere winter, but there are low - pressure disturbances in western Indonesia and the Indian Ocean, which may bring rainfall [11]. - Floods in southern Thailand and the Malay Peninsula have subsided, but some areas still have high water levels [12]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **China**: Detailed precipitation and soil humidity forecasts for Yunnan and Hainan, as well as tracking of various meteorological indicators such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, and soil humidity anomalies [21][44]. - **Indochina Peninsula**: Similar to China, it includes precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, as well as tracking of meteorological indicators for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [64][94]. - **Malay Archipelago**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, along with tracking of meteorological indicators for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [120][143]. - **South Asia**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for India and Sri Lanka [148][170]. - **West Africa**: Precipitation and soil humidity forecasts, and tracking of meteorological indicators for the Ivory Coast [173][180]. 3.5 Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia (about 80%), with Thailand having about 1/4 of the planting area and over 30% of the global output, and Indonesia having about 1/5 of the planting area and 15% of the output. The Ivory Coast accounts for over 10% of the output [194]. 3.6 Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather - The phenological period of rubber trees includes five stages, and the new leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and pests. Weather affects rubber production in different periods, and different diseases and pests may occur in each stage [203][204]. 3.7 Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Major Natural Rubber Producing Areas - Global natural rubber supply has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. The opening and closing times of tapping vary by region due to climate differences [205].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates potential rate cuts, but their implementation is uncertain. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. The domestic economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting sets a positive tone for policies, and attention should be paid to policy implementation. [1][2][3] - In the financial futures market, the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term with a neutral - to - bullish outlook. The bond market's yield decline depends on policy and interest rate changes. The RMB exchange rate is supported by domestic policies, and attention should be paid to US economic data and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation. [2][3][4] - In the commodities market, precious metals are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper, aluminum, and zinc prices are affected by the Fed's meeting and market fundamentals. Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited, and industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a volatile range. [9][12][15] - In the black market, steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. Iron ore prices have limited downside space, and coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be weakly volatile. [23][24][26] - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil prices are expected to decline in the medium - term due to supply - demand imbalances. LPG is expected to be strongly volatile. PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. are affected by demand decline and supply - side factors. [28][29][30] - In the agricultural products market, the supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. Oilseeds and oils are expected to be volatile, waiting for market guidance. Cotton prices have limited downside space, and sugar prices remain weak. [62][63][66] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic macro - policies will be more proactive. The Politburo meeting emphasizes the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly. Overseas, the US has various political and economic events, and the market focuses on the Fed's policy trends. [1][2][3] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar weakened slightly. Domestic macro - policies support the RMB exchange rate. The Fed's meeting and the next Fed Chair's policy orientation are key factors. Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy. [2][3][4] Stock Index - The stock index rose collectively, and the trading volume increased. Multiple positive factors stimulated the stock index, but the market remains cautious. It is recommended to maintain a neutral - to - bullish view and hold long positions. [4] Treasury Bonds - The bond market was affected by the Politburo meeting. The monetary policy remains "moderately loose," and the fiscal policy is "more proactive." It is recommended to hold long - term positions and wait and see in the short - term. [4][5] Container Shipping to Europe - The SCFIS European line index rose slightly. The market is in a long - short game, with factors such as shipping companies' price - raising intentions and the European economic situation affecting the market. The implementation of price - raising plans and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea are risks. [6][7] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - Precious metals are affected by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and spot market delivery issues. They are expected to be volatile in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the Fed's meeting and delivery volume. [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices are cautious before the Fed's meeting. The inventory shows different trends, and the industry's operating rate is expected to rise. It is recommended to watch more and act less in the near future and for enterprises to consider buying raw materials. [12][13][14] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by macro - sentiment and copper. Alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weakly volatile. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the price difference with aluminum. [15][16] Zinc - Zinc prices are strongly volatile, affected by macro and fundamental factors. The upside space is limited, and caution is needed when chasing high prices. [16] Tin - Tin prices are in a high - level shock. They are affected by the Fed's meeting and supply - side factors. It is recommended to enter the market on dips. [16][17] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium's short - term impact is limited. The import of lithium ore from Nigeria has a limited impact on the short - term market. The futures and spot markets show different pricing logics. [18][19] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected to be in a volatile range. Polysilicon is expected to be weakly volatile due to weak supply and demand. [19][20][21] Lead - Lead prices are strongly volatile, supported by inventory and demand. The short - term shock range is expected to be around 16900 - 17500. [21][22] Black Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices are supported by raw material costs and policy expectations. The supply - demand balance is improving, but the profit of steel mills is marginal. The price range of rebar is expected to be 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3200 - 3500. [23] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices have fallen, but the downside space is limited. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally decreasing. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting and the domestic economic work meeting. [23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - Coking coal prices have fallen due to weak macro - environment and changes in supply - demand. Coke supply is expected to increase, and attention should be paid to the price - cut rhythm of steel mills. [24][25][26] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferroalloys are affected by weak demand and high inventory. They are expected to be weakly volatile, and their downside space is limited. [26][27] Energy and Chemical Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have fallen due to the fading of geopolitical premiums. They are expected to be in a volatile and downward trend in the medium - term, affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation and supply - demand imbalances. [28][29] LPG - LPG is in a strongly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and external factors. The domestic market has relatively strong fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. [29][30][31] PTA - PX - PX - PTA is affected by demand decline and market sentiment. The supply - demand structure is relatively good, but the upward drive is limited. It is expected to follow the market sentiment and cost fluctuations. [31][32][33] MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG is affected by terminal demand decline and supply - side factors. The demand negative feedback will gradually spread, and the supply - demand is expected to be in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to short on rallies. [33][34] Methanol - Methanol is affected by delivery games. The 01 contract is expected to reduce positions significantly, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. [35] PP - PP is affected by low - profit and weak market sentiment. The supply is expected to be stable or slightly increase, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to short further. [37][38] PE - PE is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - shock pattern. [39][40] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, and styrene is supported by the spot market and is in a strong - running pattern. [41][42] Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil has rebounded from the bottom, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see for both. [43][44] Asphalt - Asphalt is affected by winter storage policies. The winter storage may be around 2750 - 2830 yuan/ton. It is recommended to use option sellers for two - way strategies or pay attention to the BU03 basis long - matching opportunity. [45][46][47] Rubber - Rubber is in a weakly volatile pattern, affected by supply - demand and macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see on the short - term single - side and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the range. [48][49] Agricultural Products Pigs - The supply - demand situation of pigs in the peak season needs verification. The policy may affect the long - term supply, and the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals. The near - month has an oversupply pressure, and the far - month is bullish due to expectations. [62] Oilseeds - The market is concerned about the USDA December report. Imported soybeans' supply and demand are affected by factors such as purchase and arrival. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the contract change. [63][64][65] Oils - Oils are in a volatile pattern, waiting for market guidance. Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are affected by factors such as production, export, and supply. [66] Cotton - Cotton prices have limited downside space due to new cotton listing and downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level at around 13800. [66][67] Sugar - Sugar prices remain weak due to sufficient supply and weak demand. [67][68] Eggs - Egg prices have rebounded in the short - term. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the long - position game with a light position. [69][70] Apples - Apple futures show a pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term. The inventory is decreasing, and the market is still in a relatively strong pattern. [70][71] Jujubes - Jujubes are in a low - level shock pattern. The new - season jujube production is being determined, and the price is expected to have limited downside space. [71][72][73]

1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，目前对东南亚影 响有限。 2、本周天气来看，降雨带从马来群岛西南部向东北部逆时针旋转移动，降雨分部不均匀，同时马来半岛整体 降雨量较上周有所下降；11月底的暴雨基本恢复正常，各产区降雨量都有所下降。印尼的南苏门答腊岛和北 苏门答腊岛、廖内地区土壤湿度落后于历年同期；马来半岛降雨量整体落后于近20年均值水平。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，但需关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年产量。 南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产地降雨量逐渐恢复正常，暂无灾害天气预期 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月08日 本周重要气象提示 厄尔尼诺指数 source： 同花顺,南华研究 厄尔尼诺指数（NOAA） 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 -1 0 1 2 3 南方涛动指 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral - weak view on the natural rubber industry in the medium - long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of natural rubber is characterized by weak demand and ample supply, with the market expected to remain in a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and light - colored rubber is relatively stronger [1] - In the medium - long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, supply pressure is increasing, and demand requires continuous macro - incentives. Therefore, the industry is viewed as neutral - weak [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The real - world support for natural rubber has slightly weakened, while market expectations remain stable. The market is in an oscillatory pattern with narrowing amplitude under the divergence between bulls and bears [1] - The fundamental contradictions of natural rubber have changed little. The concern about flood - induced production cuts in Thailand has subsided, and downstream demand support has weakened marginally [1] - The inventory of natural rubber, especially in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, continues to accumulate. Tire production, sales, and exports have decreased month - on - month, and downstream inventory pressure has increased [1] - In the long term, fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment continue to decline, domestic demand growth is under pressure, and there are still obstacles to exports, resulting in a weak long - term demand outlook [1] - Weather disturbances in production areas are alternating. Early heavy rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam and floods in southern Thailand disrupted short - term supply, but later rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease. Cooling in Yunnan will lead to earlier suspension of tapping, tightening supply expectations [1] - After the concentrated cancellation of RU warehouse receipts in November, there are more than 40,000 tons of new rubber warehouse receipts, and the warehousing is still slow, but the overall supply of whole - milk latex is not expected to be in short supply [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has revised the delivery standards for No. 20 rubber, which will introduce alternative delivery products, increasing the expectation of a looser supply of delivery products [1] - The price of synthetic rubber was strong in the early stage, and the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, which may weaken the dragging effect of synthetic rubber [1] - The recent macro - environment has warmed up, with the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeding 85%, and China's monetary policy has been stably continued, reducing liquidity concerns and increasing market risk appetite [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillatory range for RU2605 is 14,900 - 15,500, and for NR2601 is 1,1900 - 12,400 [22] - **Trend Judgment**: Currently, downstream demand is weakening, and upstream supply is neutral. There are still supports and pressures in the range. With limited changes in fundamentals, rubber prices are more affected by sentiment fluctuations and are expected to remain oscillatory [22] - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Basis Strategy**: The basis of RU is at a high level, with limited room for further increase. The valuation of whole - milk latex is expected to continue the seasonal repair trend [23] - **Unilateral Strategy**: There is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the callback opportunities at the upper and lower limits of the oscillatory range [24] - **Hedging Strategy**: It is expected that the volatility will be large, and unilateral trading can be combined with protective options [24] - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy**: The spread between RU1 and RU5 rose and then fell last week. Currently, the warehouse receipts are low, which is favorable for the positive - spread arbitrage under the long - position of the near - month contract. However, rubber prices are under great pressure, and the spread may be limited during the suspension of tapping in China in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the arbitrage space for spread convergence [25] - **Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Consider widening the spread between light - and dark - colored rubber at low levels, with the 01 spread combination referring to around 3,000 points. There may still be room to widen the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,600, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 12.75% in three years. For 20 - gauge rubber NR, the price range is 11,900 - 12,400, with a current volatility of 13.80% and a historical percentile of 68.66% in three years [27] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short rubber futures to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options to increase sales profits [28] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy rubber far - month futures to lock in procurement costs, buy out - of - the - money call options to reduce cost - increase risks, and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [28] 3.2 Important Information and Focus of Attention 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [30] - In November 2025, the retail and wholesale volumes of the domestic passenger - car market showed certain growth trends [30] - The ADP employment data in the US was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December by the Fed rose to 86% [30] - The unemployment rate in the eurozone remained stable, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month [31] - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month [31] - In terms of weather, some production areas in Yunnan are gradually suspending tapping, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten due to raw - material competition and concentrated milk diversion. Rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia is increasing [31] - **Negative Information**: - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in November were lower than expected, dragging down the composite PMI [32] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised the contract and delivery rules for 20 - gauge rubber futures, adding alternative delivery products [32] - As of November 30, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber increased, with both light - and dark - colored rubber inventories rising [32] - According to the ANRPC report, global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand growth is relatively weak [33] - In October 2025, Indonesia's exports of natural rubber to China decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [34] - The EUDR has been postponed, and the results of the EU's double - anti investigation are still pending [34] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus of Attention - Monitor the weather and tapping progress in Yunnan, the raw - material supply in Hainan, and the rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia [35] - Pay attention to the import and export of dry rubber, social inventory changes, and the repair of whole - milk latex valuation and spot digestion [35] - Keep an eye on downstream tire export data and tire production start - up rates [35] - In the macro - aspect, focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision, other central banks' actions, China's trade balance, CPI, and PPI data [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The main contract of RU has switched to 05. Last week, the 01 contract of rubber weakened, and the main contract rebounded after touching the support at 15,000, maintaining a weak oscillatory pattern. The main contract of NR also oscillated synchronously, and its positions increased [38] - **Capital Movement**: On the disk, short positions in RU continued to increase last week, while short positions in NR decreased gradually [40] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Market**: The prices of most rubber varieties decreased last week, including domestic whole - milk latex, Thai RSS3, and Vietnamese 3L [43] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Change**: The basis of whole - milk latex is on a regression trend. The valuation of RU relative to other spot products is relatively stable. NR is anchored to Indonesian standard rubber, and the basis of other spot products relative to NR has widened, which may provide some support [46] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, the spot and 01 contracts were firm, and the C - structure became shallower. The structure of NR changed little and shifted downward overall [53] - **External Market**: The prices of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 decreased last week. The structure of Japanese RSS3 has changed to a C - structure, and the C - structure of Singapore TSR20 has become slightly shallower [57][59] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese RSS3 futures has rebounded, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber has turned negative [61] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Last week, the sentiment in the rubber market rebounded slightly, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was flat with a slight warming. Currently, the number of RU warehouse receipts is low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio is high. Pay attention to the game between bulls and bears. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined [66][67] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - Rubber Spot Spread**: The spread between light - and dark - colored rubber has widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk latex has continued to repair. The spread between Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber has widened again, and the spread between Thai and Indonesian standard rubber has slightly decreased [68] - **Spread between Natural and Synthetic Rubber**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber is slightly stronger than that of natural rubber. The spread between synthetic and natural rubber has retracted, and there may still be room for it to widen in the future [71] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: The overall raw - material prices are firm, with some prices rising. Cooling in Yunnan has led to earlier suspension of tapping, and rainfall in Thailand has decreased, weakening support [74] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole - milk latex has oscillated upward, while the profit of TSR9710 has declined slowly [82] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: Last week, rubber prices oscillated. The profit of Thai smoked sheets has slightly rebounded, the profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased due to price decline, and the profit of Thai mixed rubber has declined [84] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The natural - rubber production in major producing countries shows seasonal characteristics. In Yunnan, China, tapping is gradually suspending, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten [31] - **Domestic Import Situation**: In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Most major rubber varieties showed a downward trend in imports month - on - month [88] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Tire Production and Sales**: The start - up rate of all - steel tires has increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires has rebounded slightly. Tire exports have decreased significantly month - on - month and weakened year - on - year in October [105] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been performing steadily, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [110] - **Matching Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have continued to improve, but the high inventory of passenger cars may increase the demand pressure on semi - steel tires [118] - **Matching Demand - Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy trucks has maintained high growth, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery has increased. However, the long - term weak fixed - asset investment may limit the growth of new demand for trucks [122] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable overall, and Thailand's tire shipment index has shown year - on - year growth but weakened in the fourth quarter [124] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: The tire imports in the US have increased against the trend, and the production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable [126] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has increased slightly month - on - month but is lower year - on - year, and the start - up rate of rubber hoses has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [133] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: The number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week, and the number of 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts has increased at a slightly faster rate than the seasonal trend [135] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with the inventory in the free - trade zone and general - trade warehouses rising [137]