Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report indicates that precious metal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments after a hawkish interest rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the trend may be bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver face significant adjustment pressure. The report maintains a strategy of buying on dips and advises cautious holding of existing long positions [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Wednesday saw significant intraday fluctuations in precious metal prices. London gold and silver closed with negative daily candlesticks, indicating short - term adjustment pressure. After the Fed's interest rate decision, although the market initially pushed up London gold prices, they quickly fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3694.6 per ounce, down 0.82%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $41.995 per ounce, down 2.15%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 837.64 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9933 yuan per kilogram, down 1.76% [2]. - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE, SGX, and CME gold and silver contracts, as well as the SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads and the CME gold - silver ratio [7]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.7%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 79.9%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.6%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 39.8% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons to 975.66 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.23 tons to 15189.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1221.4 tons, while SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. US President Trump will conduct a state visit to the UK [4]. 4. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings [16]. 5. Other Market Data - The table presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].

Report Information - Report Name: Oil Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Chen [1] - Investment Consulting Qualification Certificate Number: Z0022868 [1] - Transaction Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Current domestic oil market has limited positive factors, mainly driven by uncertainties in origin supply, US biodiesel policy, and international trade relations [3] - Palm oil in Malaysia entered the production - reduction season early due to drought, and inventory pressure is expected to ease; Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth; India's consumption season supports global palm oil consumption [3] - US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing, and the tightened US soybean balance sheet supports soybean prices. Sino - US trade relations may lead to a soybean import gap in Q4 [3] - For rapeseed oil, recent origin weather has little impact, and China - Canada relations are a focus. Importing directly and opening the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for the Canadian gap [3] - Short - term market may fluctuate widely. Strategies should be based on a volatile outlook, not recommended to short. Consider P1 - 5 positive spread opportunities and the possibility of Y01 - P01 spread narrowing [3] Key Points by Content Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: Monthly price ranges are 8200 - 9000 yuan/ton for soybean oil, 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton for rapeseed oil, and 9200 - 9900 yuan/ton for palm oil. Current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2% respectively, with 3 - year historical percentiles of 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% [2] - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high oil inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 25% ratio at 8900 - 9000 yuan/ton; refineries with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8200 - 8500 yuan/ton; oil mills worried about high - cost inventory can short soybean oil futures (Y2601) with a 50% ratio at 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - **Leveraging Factors**: Floods in Sabah may reduce Malaysian palm oil production; SPPOMA data shows a decline in production; China's Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may boost downstream demand [6] - **Restraining Factors**: USDA's higher - than - expected US soybean yield eases supply pressure; Uncertainty in US biodiesel policy due to opposition from some state senators; High domestic oil inventory restricts price increase [6][7] Price Data - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil 01 is at 9424 yuan/ton (-0.61%), 05 at 9212 yuan/ton (-0.43%), 09 at 8888 yuan/ton (-0.13%); BMD palm oil main contract is at 4427 ringgit/ton (-1.07%); Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9210 yuan/ton (-170) [7][9] - **Soybean Oil**: Soybean oil 01 is at 8366 yuan/ton (0%), 05 at 8098 yuan/ton (0%), 09 at 8048 yuan/ton (0%); CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.82 cents/pound (-2.58%); Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8540 yuan/ton (+30) [15][16] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9999 yuan/ton (0), 05 at 9533 yuan/ton (0), 09 at 9456 yuan/ton (0); ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 624.6 Canadian dollars/ton (-3.5); East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10110 yuan/ton (+50) [18]

宏观：美联储如期降息 【市场资讯】1）美联储如期降息 25 基点，强调就业下行风险，认为通胀有所上升，预计 年内还降息两次、明年降息一次，米兰投下唯一反对票、主张降息 50 基点。鲍威尔：本次 属风险管理型降息，50 基点降息呼声不高，就业下行成为实质性风险。"新美联储通讯社"： 对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧，为美联储转向小幅降息提供理由。2）美财长 被曝和美联储理事库克同款"污点"：有类似的抵押贷款申报。3）美国 SEC 重磅新政：为集 体诉讼设限，旨在"让美国 IPO 再次伟大"。4）加拿大央行如期降息 25 基点，几乎没有提 供未来降息指引，称在风险中谨慎行事。5）李家超：探索缩短股票结算周期至 T+1，落实 稳定币发行人制度，建造区域黄金储备枢纽。施政报告专家解读：香港全力发展成为国际 创新科技中心。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，从今年的政策导向来看，我国对消费领域的重视程度正与日俱增。 政策转向的背后是由于收入分配层面的失衡，使得国内有效需求难以充分释放，导致资本 回报率呈现递减趋势。当前年内逐步落地的一系列需求端政策并非终点，后续仍将有更多 民生领域的相关政策逐步出台、落地。商务部等 9 部门 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soybeans is currently in a stage of loose supply, causing the spot price to decline [4]. - Mid - and downstream players are waiting for lower prices, resulting in low purchasing enthusiasm and a bearish sentiment [4]. - The soybean futures market has broken through key levels, with increased positions and trading volume in active contracts, strengthening the bearish trend [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Forecast and Risk Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is predicted to be between 3850 - 4000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. - **Risk Strategies**: - For inventory management of planting subjects, when there is a large demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but significant selling pressure, it is recommended to short the A2511 soybean futures contract at a hedging ratio of 30% in the price range of 4000 - 4050 to lock in planting profits [3]. - When there is a concentrated listing of soybeans and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is advisable to sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a hedging ratio of 30% in the range of 40 - 50 (holding) to increase the selling price [3]. - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs, it is mainly recommended to wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on forward procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 contracts, waiting for price guidance in autumn [3]. Market Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: - Uncertainty in Sino - US trade. If soybean imports from the US continue to be halted or delayed in Q4, it may create a demand window for domestic soybeans [4]. - The suspension of this week's auctions, with attention on subsequent auction arrangements [4]. - There is an expected recovery in the demand for edible soybeans starting from September [4]. - **Negative Factors**: - The supply of soybeans is in a stage of loose supply, which is the core factor affecting the market [4][6]. - Purchasers are still waiting for lower prices, pushing the market to seek a new balance downwards [4][6]. - The closing prices of soybean No. 1 contracts on September 17, 2025, all declined compared to September 16, with daily declines ranging from 28 - 30 and daily decline rates from 0.70% - 0.76% [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 18, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [2] - Analysts: Xia Yingying, Guan Chenghan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel futures markets showed weak intraday oscillations, with the overall non - ferrous metals market relatively soft and no significant changes in the fundamentals [4]. - There are still supports in the new energy sector. The nickel salt supply is tight, and price increases are frequent, expected to remain strong. The nickel - iron price is firm, but high - price transactions have declined [4]. - The stainless steel futures price once fell below 12,900, and the spot market offered discounts. There was some improvement in transactions, but the fundamental momentum is currently calming down, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - level trends [4]. - Although the takeover of a small part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine has limited impact on actual production, it has raised concerns about the nickel ore supply [4][6]. - The news of Antam and CATL promoting the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia supports the long - term demand for nickel in the new energy field [6] Key Points by Category Price Forecast - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [3]. - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.61% and a historical percentile of 1.1% [3] Risk Management Strategies Shanghai Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory depreciation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: When worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4] Market Data Nickel Futures - The closing price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - one contract is 121,990 yuan/ton, down 0.67% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - two contract is 122,180 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The closing price of Shanghai nickel continuous - three contract is 122,370 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [8]. - The LME nickel 3M price is 15,445 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [8] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing price of stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, with a 0% change [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - one contract is 12,935 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - two contract is 12,985 yuan/ton, down 0.27% [11]. - The closing price of stainless steel continuous - three contract is 13,060 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [11] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,055 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons [12]. - LME nickel inventory is 228,468 tons, an increase of 2,034 tons [12]. - Stainless steel social inventory is 902,600 tons, a decrease of 16,100 tons [13]. - Nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [13] News and Event Analysis Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula by adding elements such as iron and cobalt [7]. - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [7]. - Stainless steel inventories have decreased for several consecutive weeks [7]. - The takeover of part of the PT Weda Bay nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group [7]. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of an integrated nickel smelter in Indonesia [7][6] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventories [7]. - Sino - US tariff disturbances [7]. - Uncertainty in the EU's stainless steel import tariffs has increased [7]. - South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel thick plates has been implemented [7]. - Relatively weak stainless steel spot transactions [7]

Group 1: Report Core View - The outer - disk US soybeans are expected to maintain a narrow - range bottom - level oscillation after the harvest season due to the lack of Chinese purchase orders. The upward space of the inner - disk soybean series is restricted by high near - month inventory, and the sentiment of Sino - US negotiations has suppressed the market. Whether the oscillation range can be broken depends on the repair of the supply - demand gap in the far - month. The inner - disk rapeseed series is rumored to have the issue of rapeseed meal re - import, and it is mainly necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian negotiations, showing a short - term weak oscillation [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap, and the Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. However, the soybean supply situation needs to be continuously monitored after the trading logic of the soybean meal shifts to the far - month. The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and the soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The downstream purchase sentiment is expected to be limited, but consumption will maintain at a rigid - demand level [5]. Group 2: Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.1%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 15.7% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - For feed mills with low inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. Group 3: Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3002, down 39 (-1.28%); soybean meal 05 is 2781, down 21 (-0.75%); soybean meal 09 is 2897, down 15 (-0.52%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2460, down 58 (-2.3%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2361, down 36 (-1.5%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2441, down 30 (-1.21%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1049, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.107, down 0.0103 (-0.14%) [5]. Spreads - The spread of M01 - 05 is 221, down 18; RM01 - 05 is 99, down 22; M05 - 09 is - 116, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 80, down 6; M09 - 01 is - 105, up 24; RM09 - 01 is - 19, up 28. The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2980, down 20; the basis of soybean meal in Rizhao is - 22, up 19. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2503, down 8; the basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is - 15, down 22. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 477, down 20; the futures spread is 542, up 19 [7]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4516.8214 yuan/ton, down 69.501 yuan/day and up 0.0712 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 4056.24 yuan/ton, unchanged daily and up 22.72 yuan/week. The profit of US Gulf soybean imports (23%) is - 612.5414 yuan/ton, down 69.501 yuan/day and down 99.3147 yuan/week; the profit of Brazilian soybean imports is 59.4516 yuan/ton, up 32.0011 yuan/day and down 0.4214 yuan/week. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the disk is 754 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/day and down 104 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 937 yuan/ton, down 99 yuan/day and down 63 yuan/week [8]. Group 4: Supply and Demand - The arrival of soybeans is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, a supply gap is expected to appear after the first quarter of next year [5]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills continues to rise, and the oil mill crushing volume remains high. The soybean meal is in a seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The physical inventory of downstream feed mills is at a neutral level, and the inventory of channels and downstream has been well - stocked, with limited subsequent purchase sentiment, but consumption will maintain at a rigid - demand level due to high livestock inventory [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the price trend of oils and fats is the supply - demand game in the origin under policy guidance. Domestic drivers are limited, and future price movements rely on favorable factors from the origin. The short - term market may maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern [2][3]. - It is not recommended to short oils and fats due to obvious international market support. There may be an opportunity to focus on the long - P1 short - P5 spread trading of palm oil [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - **Palm oil**: Drought in the first half of the year led to an early entry into the production - reduction period in the origin. Malaysia's inventory pressure is expected to ease, while Indonesia's B40 policy and slow production recovery limit export growth, with subsequent supply expected to be tight. India's demand supports global palm oil consumption [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The US biodiesel policy supports US soybean crushing. The year - on - year decline in supply tightens the US soybean balance sheet. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations may lead to a potential shortage in China's soybean imports [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: There is limited speculation on origin weather recently. Sino - Canadian relations are the focus, but rapeseed oil supply can be supplemented through other channels, and the opening of the Australian rapeseed import window may make up for part of the Canadian rapeseed shortfall [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Suggestion - **Basis strategy**: Consider using accumulated option purchases to reduce basis pricing risks in combination with the oscillation range, and view the short - term basis as weakening [22]. - **Spread strategy**: Consider a long - P1 short - P5 spread trading when the P1 - 5 spread is in the range of (200, 230) [22]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the soybean - palm oil 2601 spread when it is in the range of (- 1040, - 940) [22]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range forecasts for monthly oils and fats: soybean oil 8200 - 9000, rapeseed oil 9700 - 10300, palm oil 9200 - 9900 [25]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides current price, price change, and other data for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot markets, as well as information on inter - month and inter - variety spreads [25][26][27][28]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and multiple institutions indicating that Malaysia will enter the production - reduction period early; SPPOMA's production data showing a month - on - month decline [34][36]. - **Negative information**: MPOB report showing lower - than - expected exports; USDA's US soybean yield being higher than expected; Some state legislators opposing the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions [34]. - **Spot trading information**: Palm oil trading improved slightly, soybean oil trading declined, and rapeseed oil had basically no trading [31]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - September 15: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data [36]. - September 20: CFTC agricultural product position report [38]. - High - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil [38]. - Progress on the decision regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions in the US [38]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: Palm oil showed a pattern of oscillating downward and then stabilizing and rebounding this week. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil generally followed palm oil. Palm oil's important profit - making positions were cautious, with price fluctuations narrowing and open interest decreasing. Soybean oil's open interest decreased overall but stabilized recently. Rapeseed oil prices rose, open interest increased significantly, and the basis was small [36]. - **Spread structure**: The near - month term structure of oils and fats was steeper this week. The P1 - 5 and Y1 - 5 spreads were mainly in a consolidation state, while the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread strengthened significantly. Oils and fats remained in a backwardation structure [38][39]. - **Basis structure**: The basis of major oils and fats contracts was mainly in a consolidation state this week, and the basis was expected to remain weak in the short term due to high domestic inventory and weak downstream demand [43]. - **Inter - variety spread structure**: The rapeseed - palm oil 01 and rapeseed - soybean oil 01 spreads strengthened this week, while the soybean - palm oil spread continued to decline [45]. - **Foreign market**: The domestic market mainly followed the foreign market's oscillation and consolidation. CBOT soybean oil management funds reduced their net positions, while producers/ traders/ processors/ users slightly increased their positions [47]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Industry Chain Profit Tracking - The POGO spread remains at a high level, and the BOHO spread, although declining, is still positive, indicating high production costs for bio - fuels [50]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit inversion has slightly narrowed, but due to high inventory and general domestic demand, the attitude towards new ship purchases is expected to be cautious [52]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Malaysia's palm oil is expected to enter the production - reduction season earlier. The inventory pressure will be further relieved, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to decline [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: Trade - purchase willingness is low, with monthly purchases of about 200,000 tons in September and October. Supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and inventory is expected to further decline [55]. - **Soybean oil**: Soybean arrivals in September and October are still high, with a risk of raw - material overstocking. The soybean crushing rate is expected to maintain at 50% - 60% in the fourth quarter, but soybean oil supply may decrease significantly from December [55]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils and fats is large, and demand is weak. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may drive catering demand, overall terminal demand is still expected to be weaker than last year [57].

南华干散货运输市场日报 ——铁矿石&煤炭发运大增，大船发运需求升温 2025年09月17日 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、总结 截至当日，工业品发运量大幅增加，边际上增加大船运输需求，尤其是海岬型船运输需求。因此，海岬型船 运价指数BCI周环比大涨。同时BPI和BSI&BHSI运价指数维持涨势，也支撑BDI综合运价指数进一步上涨。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：加拿大、澳大利亚和乌克兰农产品发运量大增，边际 上增加巴拿马型船、灵便型船运输需求；澳大利亚铁矿石、南非煤炭、俄罗斯煤炭、几内亚铝土矿等工业品 发运量继续大幅增加。 在上述农产品和工业品发运需求均维持高位的背景下，干散货船继续受益，尤其是海岬型船受益特别明显。 BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 source： 同 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 16, 2025 - Analyst: Yu Junchen [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) futures opened higher and fluctuated, with a decline near the close. Except for EC2510, all other contract prices rose to varying degrees. In the short term, the near - month contract futures prices are likely to fluctuate and decline, and high - short opportunities should be monitored [3]. EC Risk Management Strategy Position Management - For those with existing positions but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates (long spot exposure), it is recommended to short container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits at an entry range of 1250 - 1350 [2]. Cost Management - For those facing increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching the peak season, and wanting to book cabins based on orders (short spot exposure), it is recommended to buy container shipping index futures (EC2510) at an entry range of 1000 - 1100 to lock in booking costs in advance [2]. Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) were affected by factors such as reaching short - term lows, sentiment, and the commodity market. The spot cabin quotes (except Maersk) were basically stable, but Maersk's European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, and the cargo volume in the container shipping market was still relatively insufficient [3]. Long - Bias Interpretation - On September 14, Hamas suspended negotiations on a cease - fire and the exchange of detainees in the Gaza Strip with Israel [4]. Short - Bias Interpretation - Maersk's new weekly European line spot cabin quotes continued to decline, with the 20 - foot container price falling below $900. The basis of EC contracts showed different degrees of decline [5]. Price and Spread Data EC Contracts - On September 16, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1169.7, up 0.57% daily and down 7.80% weekly; EC2512 closed at 1673.8, up 1.06% daily and down 0.54% weekly; EC2602 closed at 1572.1, up 3.64% daily and 2.93% weekly; EC2604 closed at 1283.7, up 2.69% daily and 2.15% weekly; EC2606 closed at 1471.6, up 2.77% daily and 2.59% weekly; EC2608 closed at 1625.9, up 1.84% daily and 1.11% weekly [5][6]. Price Spreads - The price spreads between different EC contracts also showed corresponding changes, such as EC2510 - 2602 being - 402.4, down 48.6 daily and 143.7 weekly [5]. Shipping Quotes Maersk Quotes - For Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam routes, the 20GP and 40GP quotes showed different trends. For example, on October 1, the 20GP opening quote was $882, down $99 from the previous week, and the 40GP opening quote was $1470, down $157 from the previous week [8]. Global Freight Index - SCFIS: European line decreased by 8.06% to 1440.24 points; SCFIS: US - West line increased by 37.67% to 1349.84 points; SCFI: European line decreased by 12.24% to $1154/TEU; SCFI: US - West line increased by 8.27% to $2370/FEU; XSI: European line decreased by 5.75% to $2083/FEU; XSI: US - West line increased by 10.0% to $2487/FEU; FBX composite freight index decreased by 2.82% to $1967/FEU [9]. Port Data Global Port Waiting Time - The waiting times at ports such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yantian showed different changes on September 15 compared to September 14. For example, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port decreased by 0.251 days to 1.401 days [14]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - The speeds of 8000 +, 3000 +, and 1000 + container ships decreased slightly on September 15 compared to September 14, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor remained at 10 [22].

盘面点评： 周三期债低开高走，全线收涨。现券收益率全线下行。公开市场逆回购4185亿，净投放1145亿。另外，今日 有1500亿国库金定存投放。资金面仍旧偏紧，DR001上行至1.49%。 日内消息： 1.财政部20年期国债加权中标利率2.1616％，全场倍数5.71，边际倍数2.16。 国债期货日报 2025/09/17 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行态度 2. 盛松成：我国降准优于降息 但降息仍有空间。 行情研判： 今日全A指数创新高，表现较强，但债市受影响不大。一级市场20年新债发行情况好于预期，中标利率低于 二级市场，带动午后期债上扬。消息方面，前央行官员盛松成表示在当前经济形势下，中国货币政策工具降 准优于降息，但降息仍有空间。目前市场对降息预期不高，关注美联储今晚的降息幅度，如果降息大于25ｂ ｐ，可能对国内债市有一定带动。目前市场情绪尚可，交易思路上多单可逢低介入，不追涨。但若明日继续 上涨，前期多单注意止盈。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-09-17 | 2025-09-16 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09- ...