1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory structure of coking coal has improved compared to the previous period, with the end of the year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports and a possible decline in seaborne coal arrivals. The price rebound of coking coal depends on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year. If the resumption is less than expected, winter storage replenishment may drive the price up; otherwise, there will be significant pressure on the price rebound [2]. - After the fourth round of price cuts for coke, the immediate coking profit has declined marginally. The coking plants lack the enthusiasm to increase production. If the iron - making production recovers quickly, the supply - demand structure of coke is expected to improve, and the fifth round of price cuts may face significant resistance [2]. - The trend of coking coal and coke is expected to be in a volatile consolidation phase. The operating range of JM2605 is predicted to be between 1000 - 1150, and that of J2605 is between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Coking coal: The end - of - year surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, but the inventory pressure in the port supervision area is still high. The Australian coal price index is stable with a slight increase, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is severely inverted, narrowing the import window for seaborne coal. The subsequent arrivals of coking coal may decline. The key is to focus on the resumption of production of domestic mines in the new year [2]. - Coke: After the fourth round of price cuts, the immediate coking profit is under short - term pressure, and coking plants lack the motivation to increase production. Attention should be paid to the recovery elasticity of downstream steel mills [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Volatile consolidation [10]. - Price range: JM2605 is expected to operate between 1000 - 1150; J2605 between 1600 - 1760 [10]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rates of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have declined, and the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal has decreased [10]. - Coking coal inventory: The total inventory of the coking coal sample has increased, with an increase in the inventory of independent coking plants and port - imported coking coal, and a decrease in the inventory of 247 steel mills [13]. - Coke supply: The operating rates and daily average output of independent coking plants and 247 steel mills have changed slightly [13]. - Coke inventory: The total inventory of the coke sample has increased, with a decrease in the inventory of independent coking plants and an increase in the inventory of 247 steel mills and port coke [13]. - Coal - coke futures prices: The spreads between different contracts of coking coal and coke have changed, and the spot prices of coking coal have not stopped falling. The fourth round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented [14]. - Black warehouse receipt quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of coking coal and coke have changed [15]. - Warehouse receipt cost and basis: The cost of coking coal and coke warehouse receipts varies, and the basis has also changed [16][20]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some coking enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu plan to raise the benchmark price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke by 20 - 30 yuan/ton, and some steel mills have accepted the price increase [21]. - Bearish information: Not provided in the document. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor a series of economic data from the United States, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI in December, the final value of the S&P Global services PMI in December, ADP employment figures in December, initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3rd, and non - farm payrolls in December [25]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal is supported around 1000 points. If there is no new driving force, the 05 contract of coking coal is expected to fluctuate between 1000 - 1150. The trend of coke still follows that of coking coal, and the 05 contract of coke is expected to fluctuate between 1600 - 1760 [26]. - Spread structure: The long - short spread of coking coal from January to May has strengthened, and the spread of coke from January to May has fluctuated at a low level. Attention can be paid to the reverse spread of coking coal from May to September, with an advisable entry interval of (- 40, - 50) [29]. - Basis structure: The main contract of coking coal has mainly fluctuated, and the spot prices of some coal types in Shanxi have been lowered. The 05 basis has continued to shrink, and the current basis of coking coal is neutral. The 05 basis of coke has shrunk. If the coke disk continues to rebound and is at a premium to the spot warehouse receipt, industrial customers with open positions are advised to sell for hedging [32]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industrial Chain - The theoretical profits of coking coal mines have shrunk, the immediate coking profits are under pressure, and the profitability of downstream steel mills has improved, showing that upstream mines and coking plants are transferring profits to downstream steel mills [46]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import - Export Profits - The year - end surge in Mongolian coal imports is over, and the customs clearance pressure is expected to ease. The long - term contract price at the Mongolian coal pithead has increased by about 7 US dollars in the first quarter, and the estimated minimum cost of the long - term contract warehouse receipt is about 900 yuan/ton [51]. - The FOB quotes of Australian coal are firm, and the CFR prices in China remain unchanged, indicating strong overseas demand for coking coal. The theoretical import profit of domestic port seaborne coal has expanded, and the coal shipping volume has decreased week - on - week [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Coking Coal Supply Side - Considering the "good start" of mines in January, the supply of coking coal is expected to increase. It is currently estimated that the average weekly production of domestic coking coal in January will be about 923 - 925 million tons. In terms of imports, the average weekly import volume of coking coal may drop to about 250 million tons in January. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coking coal in January is expected to be 230 - 231 million tons per day [69]. 3.5.2 Deduction of the Coke Supply Side - After the full implementation of the fourth round of price cuts, it is rumored that the fifth round may start on the 10th. In the short term, the production enthusiasm of coking plants is average, and the coke output changes little. It is estimated that the average weekly production of coke in January will be 766 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, and it is estimated that the average weekly export volume of coke in January will be 15 million tons. Overall, the theoretical iron - making balance point of coke in January is expected to be 231 - 232 million tons per day [72]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Demand Side - According to SMM's maintenance data, the iron - making output is expected to stabilize in the short term, and some steel mills have plans to resume production in January. The demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve marginally. It is estimated that the average daily iron - making output per week in January will be 230 - 231 million tons [76]. 3.5.4 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are presented, including production, net imports, total supply, supply - converted theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, obvious inventory, and inventory changes [79].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea is in a phase of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity in 2026, and its price center will further decline but be supported by export policies. In the first half of the year, the urea market will fluctuate according to the demand rhythm during the agricultural peak season, and exports may be suspended. In the second half of the year, the price trend will be more policy - driven to relieve domestic supply pressure. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation during the domestic demand peak season, likely to start a month before the Spring Festival in 2026, with the top range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy far - month contracts [3]. - The short - term domestic urea market is weakly stagnant, with the mainstream price of small and medium - sized particles in the reference range of 1560 - 1710 yuan/ton. The downstream resists high prices, and the upstream prices are mostly stable with some local markets slightly declining [11]. - The trend of urea is expected to be weakly volatile. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea is in a supply - surplus phase due to new capacity release in 2026. The price is influenced by export policies. The 05 contract has a price - increase expectation during the demand peak season [3]. - Although new delivery warehouses have been added, the cheapest deliverable locations are still Henan and Shandong. The 1 - 5 month spread is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern, and the 01 contract still has a premium due to the autumn fertilizer expectation [6]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to run weakly with fluctuations. The operating range of UR2601 is 1550 - 1750 yuan/ton. Short at prices above 1750 yuan/ton and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [13]. - **Basis, Month - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: The 11, 12, and 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, and 05 contracts are strong due to peak - season demand expectations. The upper pressure of the 01 contract is 1710 - 1720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1550 - 1620 yuan/ton. Short the 01 contract at high prices and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 month spread. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerned Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter - storage phase of the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL has issued a new urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [16]. - **Negative Information**: The current domestic daily urea production is 208,100 tons. After the maintenance of some plants in Shandong and Jiangsu is completed and some gas - based plants in Inner Mongolia and Sichuan are shut down for maintenance, the domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly to around 200,000 tons [16]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, an increase from this week. There are no planned shutdowns for enterprises next week, and 5 - 6 plants may resume production [18]. Chapter 3: Disk Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The domestic urea market continued to rise steadily over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of small and medium - sized particles is in the range of 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. The fourth batch of urea export quotas and the new Indian tender have boosted market sentiment, but downstream resistance has emerged. The short - term market will continue to be moderately strong [19]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: Weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand. The compound fertilizer and industrial demand are weak, and the price drive is limited. Therefore, the medium - term trend is under pressure, and the 1 - 5 month spread of urea is in a reverse - arbitrage pattern [20]. 3.2 Industrial Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% in three years [25]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, short urea futures to lock in profits, buy put options to prevent price drops, and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy urea futures to lock in procurement costs, sell put options to collect premiums, and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Analyze the seasonal production costs and profits of urea produced by fixed - bed, natural - gas, and water - coal - slurry gasification methods [27][28][30]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - Track the daily and weekly production, capacity utilization, and coal - based and natural - gas - based capacity utilization of urea [36][37]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - Observe the seasonal inventory of Chinese urea enterprises, ports, and in Guangdong and Guangxi regions, as well as the total inventory of ports and the inland [39][40][42]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - Monitor the capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and profit of compound fertilizers, as well as the market prices, capacity utilization, production volume, and profit of melamine in different regions [44][48][55]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - Track the seasonal production and sales of urea in different regions and the market price of 45% S compound fertilizer in Henan [68][69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In January 2026, the stock index is more likely to continue its upward trend, but the upside space is limited by the performance verification results and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cut expectations. The core drivers are the marginal loosening of the capital market after the new year and the continuous policy support. Key variables focus on the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman and the end - of - January interest - rate meeting. The A - share market has a relatively high valuation, and a callback in high - valuation sectors may occur if the performance forecast fails to meet expectations. In terms of style, large - cap stock indices are relatively dominant [2]. Summary according to the Table of Contents 1. Accumulating Momentum and Oscillating before Another Upturn No relevant content provided. 2. Core Influencing Factors of the January Stock Index: Performance Verification and Fed Game 2.1 Performance Forecast Disclosure Window, Earnings Verification Affects Valuation Sustainability As of December 2025, the PE - TTM of CSI 50 was 11.85, with a percentile of 88.38% and a historical percentile of 89.64%; for CSI 300, it was 14.18, 91.33%, and 87.08% respectively; for CSI 500, it was 33.91, 98.57%, and 82.37%; for CSI 1000, it was 46.71, 94.04%, and 69.29% [13]. 2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Disturbance: Replacement + Interest - Rate Meeting as Core Variables As of January 1, 2026, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75% in January is 85.1%. The probability that the market expects the interest - rate decision to remain unchanged in the January interest - rate meeting is 51.7%. Employment data before the January interest - rate meeting may affect the market's interest - rate cut expectations. If the employment data shows an unexpected downward risk in employment, it will increase the expectation of an interest - rate cut and provide more impetus for domestic stock indices [14][15]. 2.3 Liquidity Loosening + Policy Expectations Escort, Strengthening Stock Index Drivers After the new year, market liquidity shows a marginal loosening trend. The release of previously tightened liquidity after the bank's year - end assessment and the absence of pre - holiday capital withdrawal pressure in January are conducive to keeping market capital interest rates low. The new - year layout of public funds and the position adjustment of social security funds are expected to form an incremental capital force, which is beneficial for the stock index's valuation repair and the development of a structural market [17]. 3. Outlook for the Future No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The US military action in Venezuela is an upgrade of the "Monroe Doctrine 2.0" strategy, which has led to a sharp increase in global risk aversion and a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. However, in the long - term, it may accelerate the erosion of the US dollar's credit. The RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar, but the trend is non - linear [4]. - The domestic PMI in December exceeded expectations, driven by the recovery of supply and demand and price stabilization. The overseas market focuses on the next Fed chair nominee. For silver, it's recommended that holders take profits and non - holders wait for a pullback [2]. - Short - term stock index is expected to be strong but with limited upside due to multiple factors. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today, and medium - term long positions can be held [5][6]. - Platinum and palladium prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to geopolitical risks and index adjustments, but the long - term bullish foundation remains. Gold and silver are in adjustment in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper prices are expected to be affected by volume and price changes. Zinc, tin, lead, and other metals have different market outlooks based on their fundamentals [9][13][15]. - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a neutral pattern and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices are affected by inventory and demand. Ferroalloys may correct but are supported by cost [26][27][30]. - Pulp and offset paper prices are in a neutral situation and can be observed first. LPG may be supported in the short - term by geopolitical factors. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by supply and demand and cost. Methanol is likely to start an upward - trending phase. PP and PE are in a supply - demand double - reduction pattern. Asphalt may be strong at the opening. Urea has a price increase expectation for the 05 contract. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to fluctuate [32][34][39]. - Hog prices are expected to be supported in the short - term by consumption and supply changes. Oilseeds show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Oils may strengthen slightly. Cotton prices may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar prices are expected to open slightly lower. Apples may wait for a pullback to go long. Red dates are expected to be in a low - level shock [65][67][68] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Macro: Pay attention to geopolitical risks such as the US attack on Venezuela and the situation in Iran. The reset of the commodity benchmark index poses a selling risk to gold and silver [1]. - RMB Exchange Rate: The US military action in Venezuela has led to an increase in global risk aversion. The US dollar may show a short - long and long - short pattern, and the RMB is expected to appreciate moderately against the US dollar [4]. - Stock Index: The post - holiday capital environment supports the stock index, but there are many factors restricting its upside, and it is expected to be strong but with limited space in the short - term [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The new regulations on bond fund redemption fees are beneficial to the bond market, and the US military action in Venezuela may also benefit the bond market. Treasury bonds are expected to open higher today [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Platinum & Palladium: Prices were volatile last week. In the short - term, they will be affected by the US military action in Venezuela and index adjustments. In the long - term, the bullish foundation remains. It's recommended to be vigilant against callback risks in the short - term [9][13]. - Gold & Silver: They are in adjustment in the short - term. Gold should pay attention to the support levels, and silver has adjustment pressure. They are bullish in the long - term [14][15]. - Copper: The external copper price was stable during the holiday. The US - Venezuela event has limited impact on the domestic opening. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [16][18]. - Zinc: The upper space is limited, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [19]. - Tin: The high - price negative feedback has come, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [20]. - Carbonate Lithium: In the short - term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but there is a risk of large fluctuations. In the long - term, it has the opportunity to go long on dips [20][22]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and it has the value of long - term position building on dips. Polysilicon prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rise [22][24]. - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17600, with strong support at 16500 [24]. Black Metals - Rebar & Hot Rolled Coil: Steel production has slightly increased, and the market is in a weak shock pattern. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil 2605 is between 3000 - 3400 [26]. - Iron Ore: The inventory continues to accumulate. The high supply and rigid demand balance each other, and the price is expected to fluctuate [27]. - Coking Coal & Coke: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented. The coking coal inventory structure has improved, and the future price depends on the domestic mine resumption. The coke supply - demand structure may improve if the steel mills' production increases [28][29]. - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: They may correct in the short - term, but the cost provides support below [30]. Energy and Chemicals - Pulp - Offset Paper: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to observe first [32][33]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors may provide short - term support. Attention should be paid to overseas events and domestic PDH maintenance [34][35]. - PTA - PX: They fluctuate with cost. PX is expected to be in short supply in the second quarter, and PTA processing fees are expected to rise with limited space [36][39]. - MEG - Bottle Chips: The demand is weakening, and the inventory is high. The valuation is under pressure before the macro - narrative is realized [40][43]. - Methanol: It is likely to start an upward - trending phase, and attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and MTO profit [44][45]. - PP: The supply and demand are both decreasing. The core concern is the scale of January's device maintenance [46][48]. - PE: Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term disturbances. The supply pressure is relieved, but the demand is weakening [48][50]. - Asphalt: The short - term cracking may be strong due to supply disturbances caused by the US - Venezuela conflict [51][52]. - Urea: The 05 contract has a price increase expectation, and it is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [54][55]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation, glass has high inventory pressure, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate widely with weak fundamentals [56][57][59]. - Logs: The price has limited fluctuation space, and it is recommended to observe or use a small - interval grid strategy [60][61][62]. - Propylene: The domestic supply is loose, and the price may be affected by cost in the short - term with limited upward space [63]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: The approaching Spring Festival and the decrease in average出栏 weight may support the price in the short - term [65][67]. - Oilseeds: They show a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The supply rhythm of imported soybeans affects the price, and the supply of domestic bean粕 and菜粕 has different situations [68][69][70]. - Oils: They may strengthen slightly after the holiday, and palm oil is relatively strong within the sector [71]. - Cotton: The price may correct in the short - term due to factors such as weak downstream demand, but it has an upward space in the long - term [72][73]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to open slightly lower, suppressed by the decline in the external market [74][75]. - Apples: The consumption slowdown causes short - term pressure, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long [76][77]. - Red Dates: They are in a low - level shock in the short - term, and the price will be under pressure in the long - term due to oversupply [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Alumina - The core contradiction in alumina prices lies in the supply side. In 2026, the oversupply situation may continue, and the cost line may become the price game line. The price center of alumina is expected to shift downward compared to this year [2]. - It is recommended to pay attention to news related to alumina enterprise maintenance and production, and adopt a short - selling approach when the fundamentals remain unchanged [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2026, macro and supply conditions will be important factors affecting electrolytic aluminum prices. The macro environment is expected to remain loose, highlighting the anti - depreciation financial attribute of aluminum. With limited domestic supply increment and uncertain overseas supply, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [3]. - It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review Alumina - In 2025, the actual supply increase of alumina exceeded expectations, while the demand increment was limited. The price first declined, then rebounded due to supply disruptions, and finally returned to a weak trend [5]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum market showed a pattern of "oscillating upward and rising center of gravity", reaching a new high since 2022 at the end of the year [7]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points Alumina - Bauxite: In 2025, bauxite supply was sufficient, with high imports and inventory accumulation, and weak prices. In 2026, the supply is expected to remain abundant, and the price may continue to be weak, with a trading range of 60 - 75 dollars/ton [11][13]. - Alumina: In 2025, global alumina supply expanded significantly, and the oversupply situation continued. In 2026, there are many planned new production increments at home and abroad, and the average industry cost may decline [15][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - China's supply: China's electrolytic aluminum is subject to a 45 - million - ton/year capacity ceiling. In 2025, production mainly came from the resumption of previous - reduced production capacity. In 2026, the capacity increment is small, and the import of Russian aluminum is expected to continue [21][25]. - Overseas supply: In 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum had both production increases and decreases. In 2026, the supply is expected to be in a state of slow recovery and limited expansion, with Indonesia being the main source of new capacity, but there are uncertainties in power supply [27][29]. - Macro environment: In 2026, the macro environment is expected to remain loose, and the financial attribute of aluminum against depreciation will be prominent, providing upward momentum for aluminum prices [33]. Chapter 4: Supply - Demand Outlook Alumina - Supply: Bauxite supply is expected to remain abundant in 2026, and the oversupply of alumina is predictable, with new production capacity concentrated in Indonesia, India, and southern China [35]. - Demand: The downstream demand for alumina is mainly for electrolytic aluminum smelting. With limited supply increment of domestic electrolytic aluminum, the demand for alumina is difficult to find bright spots [36]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply: Domestic supply increment is limited due to the capacity ceiling, and overseas supply is in a state of slow recovery and limited expansion, with uncertainties in new production capacity and possible production cuts [36][37]. - Demand: - Real estate: The drag on aluminum consumption from real estate is expected to slow down in 2026, with a narrowing decline in the completion side [38]. - New energy vehicles: Although the growth rate of the new energy vehicle market may slow down in 2026, the future aluminum consumption increment is still considerable [40]. - Power grid investment: Power grid investment is expected to maintain stable growth during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [42]. - Photovoltaic: Photovoltaic installation is expected to experience negative growth in 2026, dragging down aluminum consumption [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Q3 US GDP exceeded expectations with a 4.3% growth, and the job market showed resilience, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but November economic data indicated weak domestic demand, still needing policy support. Attention should be paid to domestic PMI data and Trump's nominee for the next Fed chair [2]. - The breakthrough of the RMB against the US dollar at the 7.00 mark may end the low - volatility forex market. The RMB is likely to end the year stably, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - Short - term stock indices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed. Bonds are not pessimistic in the medium - term. The container shipping European line futures are expected to be volatile, with the near - term contract range - bound and the far - term contract under pressure [6][8][11]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are recommended to be held lightly during the holiday. Gold and silver are expected to be weak in the short - term and bullish in the long - term. Copper is recommended to be observed more and traded less before the holiday. Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, while alumina and cast aluminum alloy have their own characteristics [15][18][21]. - Zinc has limited upside space. Nickel - stainless steel is driven by supply reduction expectations and demand improvement, but it is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday. Tin has rebounded from oversold conditions and is expected to be volatile. Carbonate lithium has long - term value support and is recommended to be bought on dips. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are gradually rising, and long positions can be considered on dips [25][26][29]. - Lead is expected to be volatile. Steel products are expected to be range - bound, with iron ore oscillating, coking coal and coke facing uncertain supply, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese being volatile and bullish in the short - term [34][36][41]. - Pulp and offset paper can be observed first, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly. Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level. LPG is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term. PTA - PX has a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. MEG - bottle chips are under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized. Methanol can be bought at a low level [45][49][58]. - PP and PE are expected to be bottom - oscillating. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be bullish and oscillating. Fuel oil has weak cracking, and low - sulfur fuel oil has stable cracking. Urea can be bought in the far - month contract. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are affected by supply and demand and market sentiment [63][66][73]. - Logs can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used. Propylene is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [79][80]. - For agricultural products, pigs' long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail. Oilseeds are strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term. Oils are widely oscillating under supply pressure. Cotton may correct in the short - term and rise in the long - term. Sugar maintains a balance. Eggs are generally bearish. Apples are expected to be oscillating. Red dates are expected to be range - bound at a low level [84][85][90] Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Central rural work conference focuses on agricultural technology; 2026 national subsidy plan is released; Fed meeting minutes show divided views on rate cuts; Trump may sue the current Fed chair and will announce the next nominee in January [1][4]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas, the US economy is strong, dampening rate - cut expectations. Domestically, policies aim to expand domestic demand, but domestic demand is weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB broke through the 7.00 mark, and it is expected to end the year stably. Attention should be paid to exchange - rate stabilization policies [5][6]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices were volatile and bullish last trading day. Policy signals are positive, but continuous upward breakthroughs still need to be observed [6][7]. - **Bonds**: The bond market was range - bound on Tuesday. The mid - term view on bonds is not pessimistic, and long positions can be held during the holiday [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures market closed down yesterday. The market is concerned about the sustainability of price increases, and the near - term contract is range - bound while the far - term contract is under pressure [9][11]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Platinum rose and palladium oscillated last night. The long - term bullish foundation remains, but short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to hold lightly during the holiday [14][15]. - **Gold & Silver**: Gold oscillated and silver rose. The short - term view is weak, and the long - term view is bullish. It is recommended to reduce long positions or stay out of the market during the holiday [16][18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose last night. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to observe more and trade less before the holiday [19][21]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be bullish in the long - term, alumina is expected to be range - bound, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the impact of related varieties [22][23]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices were bullish last trading day. The upside space is limited, and it is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short - term [25]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose yesterday. The supply is expected to shrink in 2026, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to reduce positions during the holiday [25][26]. - **Tin**: Tin prices rebounded from oversold conditions last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [27]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price rose yesterday. The long - term value is supported, and it is recommended to buy on dips [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures rose yesterday. The industrial silicon market is in a supply - demand weak state, and polysilicon prices are showing signs of warming. Long positions can be considered on dips [30][32]. - **Lead**: Lead prices oscillated narrowly last trading day. It is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [33][34]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products oscillated yesterday. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and prices are expected to be range - bound [35][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices followed other metals up and down. The fundamentals are neutral, and prices are expected to be range - bound [37][38]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coal and coke prices opened low and closed high on Tuesday. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are facing uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery in January [39][40]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: Ferroalloys were bullish and oscillating yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating in the short - term, but the upside space may be limited [41][42]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures rebounded yesterday, and offset paper futures rose. The market is still neutral, and low - buying strategies can be tried lightly [44][46]. - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil futures closed down yesterday. OPEC+ is expected to continue to suspend the production increase plan. Oil prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level [47][49]. - **LPG**: LPG prices rose yesterday. It is supported in the near - term and pressured in the long - term [50][51]. - **PTA - PX**: PX supply is expected to remain high, and PTA supply is uncertain. PTA processing fees are expected to rise, but the space is limited. PX is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [52][55]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: MEG supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. It is under valuation pressure until macro - narrative is realized [56][58]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose sharply. It is recommended to buy at a low level [59][60]. - **PP**: PP prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the scale of plant maintenance in January [61][63]. - **PE**: PE prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be bottom - oscillating, with supply pressure relieved and demand weakening [64][66]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose yesterday. They are expected to be bullish and oscillating, but high - buying is not recommended [67][69]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices closed at 2473 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is abundant, and the cracking is weak [70]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices closed at 2977 yuan/ton yesterday. The supply is improving, and the cracking is stable [71][72]. - **Urea**: Urea prices closed at 1756 yesterday. It is recommended to buy in the far - month contract [72][73]. - **Soda Ash - Glass - Caustic Soda**: Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda prices rose yesterday. Soda ash is affected by new capacity and demand; glass is affected by cold - repair and inventory; caustic soda is affected by market sentiment and downstream demand [73][76]. - **Logs**: Log prices closed at 776 yesterday. It can be observed or a fine - grid strategy can be used [77][79]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be range - bound at a low level, and attention should be paid to marginal changes [80]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: Pig futures prices rose yesterday. The long - term supply may be affected by policies, while short - term fundamentals prevail [83][84]. - **Oilseeds**: The external market was weak, and the domestic near - month market was strong. It is recommended to try a 3 - 5 positive spread lightly [85][86]. - **Oils**: International oils are under supply pressure, and domestic oils are oscillating. Palm oil and rapeseed oil are relatively strong, and soybean oil is weak [87][88]. - **Cotton**: Cotton futures prices were mixed. The short - term may correct, and the long - term may rise. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [89][90]. - **Sugar**: Sugar futures prices were mixed. The short - term upward pressure is increasing [91][93]. - **Eggs**: Egg futures prices fell yesterday. It is generally bearish in the long - term, and long positions can be held lightly for a rebound [94]. - **Apples**: Apple futures prices rose yesterday. It is expected to be oscillating, and long positions can be bought on dips [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: Red date futures prices are expected to be range - bound at a low level. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [97][98].

南华期货油料产业周报 ——近月通关延迟偏强，远月到港压力偏弱 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前豆粕盘面交易重点在于：对于进口大豆，近月现实压力可能会持续压制盘面，但近期传出港口大豆 通关延迟消息，使得油料整体开启反弹。对于进口大豆，买船成本方面看，巴西升贴水在外盘走弱后保持坚 挺，总体支撑国内买船成本。量级方面看，美豆目前只能通过储备买船进口，商业买船继续以采购巴西船期 为主，但由于榨利表现一般，整体买船情绪较前期有所降低，故目前12月预估到港750万吨，1月600万吨，2 月500万吨左右。仅从到港量来看，在明年一季度同比往年或存在一定供应缺口，但目前国内开启采购美豆窗 口后，国家或将以轮储形式对远月供应添加增量。所以总的来看，近期弱现实依旧是压制盘面反弹高度的主 要因素，但阶段性供应缺口或延迟到港问题将影响国内进口大豆整体供应节奏，使得盘面出现阶段性反弹。 对于国内豆粕，供应方面，全国进口大豆港口与油厂库存维持高位，豆粕延续季节性库 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.43% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1][5][6] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index declined by -1.53%, while the rest increased. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.07%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest increase of 0.36% [1][5][6] - All the theme indices increased. The Coal Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.19%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest increase of 0.11% [1][5][6] - In the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the nickel index had the largest increase of 5.28%, and the tin index had the largest decline of -2.43% [1][5] Group 2: Index Data Details Nanhua Commodity Index | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | Daily Return | Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2648.57 | 2637.12 | 11.45 | 0.43% | 7.16% | 11.55% | 0.62 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1892.13 | 1921.55 | -29.42 | -1.53% | 87.24% | 19.46% | 4.48 | | Industrial Goods Index NHII | 3561.07 | 3534.24 | 26.82 | 0.76% | -4.85% | 13.80% | -0.35 | | National Index NHMI | 6894.27 | 6866.03 | 28.24 | 0.41% | 10.31% | 11.91% | 0.87 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1538.61 | 1522.34 | 16.27 | 1.07% | -14.74% | 16.66% | -0.88 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1922.50 | 1908.43 | 14.08 | 0.74% | 19.02% | 12.85% | 1.48 | | Black Index NHFI | 2536.94 | 2527.86 | 9.07 | 0.36% | -3.87% | 16.12% | -0.24 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1055.07 | 1049.30 | 5.78 | 0.55% | 3.31% | 7.92% | 0.42 | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1168.35 | 1167.06 | 1.29 | 0.11% | -0.56% | 8.78% | -0.06 | | Energy Index NHEI | 969.13 | 961.05 | 8.09 | 0.84% | -2.90% | 15.90% | -0.18 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 896.72 | 892.09 | 4.63 | 0.52% | -0.07% | 10.12% | -0.01 | | Coal Chemical Index NHCCI | 917.95 | 907.15 | 10.80 | 1.19% | -1.88% | 11.17% | -0.17 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 1066.98 | 1063.40 | 3.58 | 0.34% | 0.01% | 15.01% | 0.00 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 693.67 | 688.02 | 5.65 | 0.82% | -0.69% | 11.69% | -0.06 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1220.58 | 1210.70 | 9.88 | 0.82% | -0.47% | 7.94% | -0.06 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 923.72 | 919.25 | 4.48 | 0.49% | 0.82% | 7.54% | 0.11 | [6] Single - Variety Index Daily Changes in Some Sectors Energy and Chemical Sector | Variety | Daily Change | | --- | --- | | Synthetic Ammonia | 2.77% | | Coal | 0.48% | | Methanol | 2.68% | | Polypropylene | 0.75% | | Naphtha | 0.50% | | Crude Oil | 0.87% | | Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil | 0.57% | [2] Black Sector | Variety | Daily Change | | --- | --- | | Some varieties | -0.5% - 0.00% (approximate range) | [2] Agricultural Products Sector | Variety | Daily Change | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | 1.72% | | Rapeseed Oil | 1.64% | | Rapeseed Meal | 0.51% | | Soybean Meal | 0.77% | | Rapeseed | 0.26% | | Rapeseed Cake | 0.67% | | Live Pigs | 0.64% | | Some other variety | -0.84% | [11] Group 3: Calculation Rules - The rise and fall in the text is the ratio of (today's closing price) to (yesterday's closing price). The contribution is the product of the rise and fall and the weight [7] - The Nanhua Commodity Index eliminates the price difference when commodity contracts are rolled over, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [7] - The contribution calculation method used in the text: A variety's daily rise and fall / ∑|All varieties' daily rise and fall|. Red data bars represent rising varieties on the day, and blue data bars represent falling varieties on the day [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - **Polysilicon**: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - **Second Quarter**: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - **Third and Fourth Quarters**: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - **Second Quarter**: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - **Third Quarter**: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - **Fourth Quarter**: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Cost**: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - **Supply**: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - **Import and Export**: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - **New Capacity in 2026**: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Cost**: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - **Supply**: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - **Component Import and Export**: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - **Photovoltaic Power Generation**: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Industrial Silicon Profit**: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - **Polysilicon Profit**: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver remains in the overseas origin markets. The weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils, and the market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - In the short - term, due to the lack of trend drivers, it is advisable to treat it as a short - term range. As palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year, the pressure in the palm oil origin will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We can wait to see if it will start to rise after inventory destocking [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil origin. Malaysia's inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve the supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down the destocking pace. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which is in line with market expectations, but it has limited short - term benefits [1]. - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed to the first quarter of 2026, and the allocation ratio is uncertain [1]. - The negotiation between China and Canada shows no positive trend. However, the global new - season rapeseed harvest and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds have eased the supply tension, weakening the support for rapeseed oil. If the relationship between China and Canada recovers, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations No relevant content provided. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term low - level volatile adjustment, with a possibility of rebound in the first quarter of next year. - Price range: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8200 - 8800], Y2605 in the range of [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 in the range of [8600 - 9500]. - Technical analysis: Treat it with a short - term low - level consolidation mindset for single - side trading. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads. - Basis strategy: Currently, view the basis with a short - term weak - volatility mindset. - Monthly spread strategy: None for now. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices: Palm oil 01 is at 8646 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 8658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8534 yuan/ton with a 1.52% increase; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4072 ringgit/ton with a 0.62% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 8590 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 [24]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices: Soybean oil 01 is at 8150 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase; Soybean oil 05 is at 7878 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; Soybean oil 09 is at 7756 yuan/ton with a 0.03% decrease; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 49.26 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8220 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 [24]. - Rapeseed oil futures and spot daily prices: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9653 yuan/ton with an increase of 178; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9040 yuan/ton with a decrease of 6; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 8997 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton with an increase of 1; East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10130 yuan/ton with an increase of 250 [24]. - Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 12 yuan/ton with an increase of 20; Y - P 01 is - 444 yuan/ton with an increase of 38; etc. [25]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2130000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 220000 tons. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1089000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of 3.07%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [26][27]. - **Negative Information**: Favorable weather conditions in South America for soybean harvest, light trading before the New Year holiday, and the start of sporadic soybean harvesting in Brazil have weakened the upward space of the US soybean market. The ICE Canadian rapeseed futures market closed lower, mainly reflecting sufficient supply. The import of soybeans is still sufficient despite the oil mills' intention to hold prices [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [30]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and high - frequency export data; Origin weather information [40]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market continued to fluctuate widely this week. The pressure in the origin has not been cleared, lacking a trend - driven upward momentum. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the global oil market demand expansion is limited. The recent positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious. Foreign capital has insufficient confidence in the oil sector [39]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the main basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. Due to high domestic oil inventories and general downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [42]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of soybean oil became shallower, and the weak reality continued to suppress the disk. The spot end of palm oil is still weak, but the expected decrease in supply pressure in the first quarter of next year has injected a premium into the 05 contract. There is still a supply gap in the near - month rapeseed oil, but it is expected to ease over time [42]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads rebounded slightly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts destocking, the support improves, and the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [49]. 3.3.2 External Market This week, the external market fluctuated. The pressure in the palm oil origin remained unchanged, with insufficient weather disturbances and limited expectations for Indonesia's B50. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and the US soybean lacks positive drivers, showing a weak oscillation. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and the US soybean oil has declined, dragging down the international palm oil, which also remained weak [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain This week, the POGO spread rebounded slightly as the palm oil price stabilized, and the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels increased slightly. The BOHO spread continued to weaken due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, and the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [56]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the origin price has been consolidating at a low level, and the import profit has changed slightly with a limited profit range. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the profit weakened again near the end of the year [58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in December, but the export boost was insufficient. It is expected that an inventory inflection point may be seen in January [62]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. As it enters the production - reduction season in the origin, the willingness to sell is limited. Considering the easy solidification of palm oil in winter and the negative basis, domestic orders are not expected to increase. We can wait for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [64]. - **Soybean Oil**: In December, the arrival of raw materials decreased, and the crushing volume declined. Although the current inventory pressure is large and the overall supply is relatively loose, the seasonal shortage of soybean arrivals in the first quarter needs attention [64]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseeds are arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory is mainly in the process of destocking. With the global rapeseed harvest, the cost price is weak. More Australian rapeseeds will arrive next year, and if the China - Canada relationship improves, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [64]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction In the short - term, the inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. After the festival stocking ends, the boost to the market is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [67].