报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 贵金属延续强势 十四届全国人大四次会议于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开，全国政协十四届四次 会议于 2026 年 3 月 4 日在北京召开。全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在 北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出 盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三 是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强 化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。中国 11 月规模以上 工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业利润增速加 快。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫 28 日说，俄总统普京当天与美国总统特朗普通电 话，双方均认为，以公民投票为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。 重点品种：贵金属，股指，铜 贵金属：现货白银快速拉升，继续刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%， 低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期， 引发市场质疑，但 CP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the multiple positive factors of institutional improvement, capital expansion, and industrial empowerment, the long - term and steady bullish pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital protection, and industrial drive" [2] - Supply - side reform may push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks [2] - With the establishment of the RMB appreciation expectation, overseas funds are expected to flow back and drive the revaluation of Chinese assets [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts were 4657.00 (current month), 4642.00 (next month), 4638.40 (next quarter), and 4591.00 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 20.20, 18.00, 22.20, and 23.00 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 32939.00, 3163.00, 70821.00, and 11923.00, and the open interest being 63400.00, 4104.00, 175215.00, and 45186.00. The changes in open interest were 1048.00, 1321.00, 10739.00, and 3100.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3048.00 (current month), 3047.20 (next month), 3051.40 (next quarter), and 3043.40 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 14.00, 13.80, 15.60, and 14.40 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 12280.00, 1167.00, 31969.00, and 5669.00, and the open interest being 21080.00, 1314.00, 55790.00, and 14660.00. The changes in open interest were 2764.00, 197.00, 5033.00, and 1596.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7456.40 (current month), 7415.40 (next month), 7388.00 (next quarter), and 7204.20 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 49.20, 54.40, 58.40, and 59.00 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 38607.00, 6003.00, 84671.00, and 20263.00, and the open interest being 69603.00, 8579.00, 157607.00, and 57359.00. The changes in open interest were 3168.00, 3688.00, 13072.00, and 5849.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7595.00 (current month), 7530.00 (next month), 7472.40 (next quarter), and 7234.00 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 35.20, 42.40, 42.60, and 39.00 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 52688.00, 8047.00, 125247.00, and 26977.00, and the open interest being 92540.00, 12848.00, 194890.00, and 81327.00. The changes in open interest were 1388.00, 4117.00, 11763.00, and 4412.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 0.80, - 41.00, and - 65.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 13.40, 0.00, - 41.40, and - 73.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4657.24, 3045.40, 7458.84, and 7605.53 respectively, with the price increases of 0.32, 0.41, 0.65, and 0.35 respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of hands) were 175.40, 34.10, 199.28, and 266.26 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 4604.27, 1009.17, 3869.14, and 4736.66 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had price increases of - 0.13%, 3.16%, 0.98%, and 1.33% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors had price increases of - 0.27%, - 0.09%, 0.05%, and - 0.85% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had price increases of - 0.90% and - 0.11% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (inter - quarter - CSI 300) were - 0.24, - 15.24, - 18.84, and - 66.24 respectively [1] - The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (inter - quarter - SSE 50) were 2.60, 1.80, 6.00, and - 2.00 respectively [1] - The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (inter - quarter - CSI 500) were - 2.44, - 43.44, - 70.84, and - 254.64 respectively [1] - The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (inter - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 10.53, - 75.53, - 133.13, and - 371.53 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic Major Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3963.68, 13603.89, 8264.77, and 3243.88 respectively, with the price increases of 0.10%, 0.54%, 0.53%, and 0.14% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25818.93, 50407.79, 6929.94, and 24340.06 respectively, with the price increases of 0.17%, 0.13%, - 0.03%, and 0.23% respectively [1] 5. Macro Information - The National Fiscal Work Conference proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, optimize the government bond tool portfolio, and focus on six key tasks [2] - Trump and Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", and a strong security agreement between the US and Ukraine is being negotiated [2] - As the 2025 trading is coming to an end, many financial markets will be closed during the New Year holiday. The December PMI data of China and the US will be released, the Fed will release meeting minutes, and Buffett will retire [2] - The national venture capital guidance fund has been launched, focusing on early - stage projects and seed enterprises in key fields and expected to leverage trillions of funds [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port has started the whole - island customs closure operation, with significant achievements in the first week, including a large increase in the number of new foreign - funded enterprises and the implementation of preferential customs policies [2] 6. Industry Information - The input of producer services in China's manufacturing industry has increased from 9.7 trillion in 2017 to 14.1 trillion, providing key support for technological upgrading and industrial chain collaboration [2] - China's grain output in 2025 reached 1.43 trillion catties, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The autumn grain purchase volume has exceeded 200 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32 million tons [2] - As of December 28, 2025, the total box office of China's movie New Year's Eve season has exceeded 5 billion yuan, reaching a new high in the same period in the past eight years [2] - Chongqing has added 160 million yuan of automobile replacement and renewal subsidy funds, with a total subsidy application amount of 185 million yuan, and the application period is from December 27, 2025, to January 10, 2026 [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes fell slightly. The stock index fluctuated widely and rose in the previous trading session. The non - ferrous metal sector led the rise, while the electronics sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.18 trillion yuan [2] - On December 25, the margin trading balance increased by 3.776 billion yuan to 2528.4993 billion yuan [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission's statement may lead to supply - side reform in raw material industries, which may push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks [2] - The RMB has appreciated against the US dollar since December, and overseas funds are expected to flow back with the establishment of the RMB appreciation expectation [2]

| | 1、央行公告称，12月26日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了930亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量930亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量930亿元。Wind数据显示，当日562亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放368亿元。本周央行公开市场将 | | | 有6227亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一、本周二、本周三、本周日分别到期673亿元、593亿元、260亿元、4701亿元。 | | | 2、2026年全国两会召开时间确定。全国政协十四届四次会议将于2026年3月4日在北京召开，十四届全国人大四次会议 | | | 将于3月5日召开，审查"十五五"规划纲要草案列入2026年全国人代会建议议程。 3、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支 | | | 出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需 | | | 主导，大力提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动能，进一步增加财政科 | | | 技投入；进一步强化保基本、 ...

首席点评： 有色新高，能化亮眼 中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变，12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，1 年期 LPR 为 3%。 中国央行：单笔逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日起 正式实施。特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联 储明年票委放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息，11 月 CPI 被低估。金银铜齐创历 史新高，黄金盘中涨超 2%、时隔两月再创新高，白银和伦铜连续两日创新高，现 货白银一度涨超 3%，伦铜四连涨；报道显示美国发力封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，原 油四连涨至逾一周新高，盘中涨近 3%。 重点品种：贵金属，原油，油脂 贵金属：国际黄金白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑， 但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。疲软的就业数据支持 美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形成提振。从长期角度来看， ...

20251223申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼 | | | 产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。中钢 协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增 长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建议关 | | | 注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 | LME现货升贴水 | LME库存 | LME库存日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 （元/吨） | （元/吨） | 期收盘价 (美元/吨） | （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） | （吨） | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean meal oscillated and closed lower, while rapeseed meal closed slightly higher. Brazilian soybean sowing rate reached 94.1% as of the week of December 13. US soybean exports are still slightly slow. With concerns over US soybean export demand and increasing expectations of a bumper harvest in South America, US soybean futures prices have been weak recently. In China, continuous auctions of imported soybeans have made up for the supply gap, and the cost support for Dalian oil and meal has weakened. With sufficient long - term supply expected to continue to pressure prices, Dalian meal is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils showed a strong oscillation. Malaysia's reduction of palm oil export tax rates and reference prices boosted export expectations, leading to a rise in palm oil futures prices. However, the inventory pressure in the producing areas is still significant. Although in the production - reduction period, the inventory inflection point may not appear until December. For rapeseed oil, with Australian rapeseeds arriving at ports and about to enter the crushing process, market supply is expected to gradually increase. With no improvement in the short - term fundamentals of palm oil producing areas, oils are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7772, 8414, and 8864 respectively, with price changes of 60, 122, and 120 and percentage changes of 0.78%, 1.47%, and - 3.15%. The price differences and ratios of various contracts also showed different changes [1]. - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 3958 (Ringgit/ton), 1064 (cents/bu), 49 (cents/lb), and 302 (dollars/ton) respectively, with price changes of 9, 15, 1, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.23%, 1.43%, 1.49%, and 0.13% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - **Domestic Spot**: In the domestic spot market, the spot prices of various oils and meals showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.61%, and the spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil increased by 0.24%. The spot price differences and basis also changed compared with the previous values [1]. - **Import and Processing Profit**: The current values of import and processing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, and near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil were - 391, - 314, - 103, - 300, and - 335 respectively, showing different degrees of improvement compared with the previous values [1]. 3.3 Industry Information - **Soybean Export**: A US private exporter reported selling 396,000 tons of soybeans to China, with 330,000 tons for delivery in the 2025/2026 season and the remaining 66,000 tons for delivery in the 2026/2027 season [2]. - **Palm Oil Export**: According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 20 were 821,442 tons, a 0.87% decrease compared to the same period last month [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.464 | 102.504 | 105.860 | 105.860 | 107.980 | 108.005 | 111.98 | 112.2 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.490 | 102.526 | 105.970 | 105.965 | 108.150 | 108.175 | 112.66 | 112.84 | | | 涨跌 | -0.026 | -0.022 | -0.110 | -0.105 | -0.170 | -0.170 | -0.680 | -0.640 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), treasury bonds (TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn; bearish on crude oil, methanol, apples, and container shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views - A - shares are expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern with the resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive". The expected December interest rate cut by the Fed and capital market reforms will further strengthen this foundation [2][12] - The downward trend of CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, and weak employment data supports the Fed to continue cutting rates, boosting precious metal prices. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [3][20] - The short - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to continue consolidation, while a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained, considering supply and demand factors and the approaching holidays [4][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day 3.1.1. International News - The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles" requirements, seen as a concession to the traditional European automotive industry and a step back in climate policy [7] 3.1.2. Domestic News - State - owned enterprises will take on national science and technology tasks, aiming to make breakthroughs in "neck - choking" areas and supply "root technologies" and key common technologies [8] 3.1.3. Industry News - Three government departments jointly issued the "Internet Platform Price Behavior Rules" to promote the innovation and healthy development of the platform economy [9] 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.88%, ICE Brent crude oil increased 1.41%, London silver climbed 2.26%, and other varieties showed different degrees of price changes from December 18th to 19th [11] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's expected December interest rate cut and positive policy signals will boost market risk appetite [2][12] - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of short - term treasury bond futures is supported by the expectation of loose policies, despite factors such as the rise in US and Japanese bond yields [13][14] 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, with a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories [15] - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as the decline in CTO/MTO开工率 and the change in coastal inventory [16] - **Rubber**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost trend and the digestion rhythm of supply and demand [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The focus of market trading is shifting to the May contract [19] 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3][20] - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply - demand gap due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to factors such as the US dollar and downstream demand [21] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Market sentiment and related factors need to be monitored [22] - **Aluminum**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate, and a long - term optimistic view is maintained, considering supply, demand, and holiday factors [4][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction, the overall trend is still upward, and attention should be paid to factors such as production resumption and demand verification [24][25] 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a significant decline, the double - coking market is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to factors such as iron - water production and downstream inventory [26] - **Steel**: The short - term steel price has the potential to rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak, affected by supply, demand, and macro - expectations [27] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, considering factors such as shipping, inventory, and steel - mill demand [28] 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meals**: Domestic soybean meal is expected to continue range - bound due to factors such as the slow US soybean exports and sufficient future supply [29] - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as palm oil export policies and inventory pressure [30][31] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar shows signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply and cost factors on market sentiment [32] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [33] 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure as the Spring Festival approaches and the shipping schedule changes [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance output is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs to be noted. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Data - **Domestic Futures and LME Data** - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 93,000 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,882 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 4.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,275 tons, and the daily change was - 2,650 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 160 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,945 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.15 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 519,600 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,065 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,073 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.61 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 99,400 tons, and the daily change was 1,700 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,803 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 187.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,938 tons, and the daily change was - 60 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,850 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,985 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 45.23 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 262,125 tons, and the daily change was - 3,450 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 343,040 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 6,520 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 43,227 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 11.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 4,425 tons, and the daily change was 235 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View - Polyolefin futures are running weakly, with stable spot prices for linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall downstream demand side's overall operating rate seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. The previous price movement was influenced by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. Short - term attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6272, 6320, and 6367 respectively, down - 161, - 156, and - 147 from the day before, with percentage drops of - 2.50%, - 2.41%, and - 2.26% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6132, 6213, and 6240 respectively, down - 70, - 66, and - 63 from the day before, with percentage drops of - 1.13%, - 1.05%, and - 1.00% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 66179, 721995, and 14047 respectively, and the open interests were 89235, 598214, and 18283 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 16247, 36438, and 4333 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 51796, 375015, and 6257 respectively, and the open interests were 124668, 533959, and 30093 respectively, with changes in open interest of - 17966, 10464, and 397 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 48, - 47, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 43, - 38, and 81. For PP, the current spreads are - 81, - 27, and 108 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 24, and 101 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2150 yuan/ton, 5915 yuan/ton, 576 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6350 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6350 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, with some price ranges unchanged from the previous day [2]. News - On Friday (December 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.66 per barrel, up $0.51 or 0.91% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.82 - $56.90. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.47 per barrel, up $0.65 or 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.40 - $60.65 [2].