报告日期：2025 年 4 月 14 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：社融增速回升，关注关税进展 央行数据显示，2025 年一季度社融规模增量累计为 15.18 万亿元，比上年同期 多 2.37 万亿元。3 月末 M2 余额同比增长 7%，M1 余额同比增长 1.6%，M2-M1 剪 刀差 5.4%、较 2 月的 6.9%缩小了 1.5%。美国 3 月 PPI 同比增长 2.7%，核心 PPI 同比增长 3.3%，增速均低于预期值；PPI 环比下降 0.4%，降幅为 2023 年 10 月 以来最大。受能源价格下跌影响，美国 PPI 数据走低，进一步证明在关税浪潮来 临之前通胀趋于温和。美国海关与边境保护局 11 日悄然发布了更新税则，豁免 了包含自动数据处理器、电脑、通信设备、显示器与模组、半导体相关等商品的 进口税率不受"对等关税"影响。但美国商务部长表示，获得豁免的电子产品将 被重新审查，这些产品可能会被纳入对半导体行业的关税中，该行业关税可能在 一两个月后出台。 质性的衰退信号、美联储政策指引能否有效对冲关税负面影响等，警惕短期内呈 现衰退叙事的进一步升温，黄金整体维持强势。 一、当日主要新闻关注 ...

| | 黑色产业链基差及价差日报20250414 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 钢材：阶段性宏观氛围有转暖迹象且国内政策预期再起，短期震荡走强后偏弱看待。 | | | | 铁矿：短期缺乏驱动整体跟随成材，宏观情绪阶段性转暖可能带来波段反弹行情，铁矿石短期反弹后 | | | 偏弱看待。 | | | | 摘要 | 煤焦：在下游需求回升的支撑下、双焦估值存在向上修复的空间，关注上游库存的消化情况。 | | | | 铁合金：需求回升拉动下双硅下方支撑有望逐渐转强，关注终端用钢需求的旺季成色以及市场库存的 | | | 消化情况。 | | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 关税影响对钢材为豁免状态，影响不直接。间接出口影响尚未实际兑现，不过情绪的短期释放还是会有所压制，终 | | | | 端需求表现偏弱，基本面角度没有出现继续转好的情况，真实用钢需求持续情况需要谨慎观察。钢厂目前利润修 | | | 钢材 | 复，总产量呈现回升态势。螺纹钢的表观消费能否持续稳定仍待观察。未来需要关注的重点——钢厂复产速度和需 求恢复情况，钢厂增产后需求是否可以承接以防负反馈行情的出现。国内宏观落地 ...

| 集运欧线数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/4/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 最新观点 | | | | | | 策略方向 | | | 集运欧线：上周五EC震荡，06合约收于1810.3点，下跌1.97%，08合约已小幅贴水 | | | | | | | | | 06合约，市场计价特朗普关税政策影响下传统旺季后集装箱海运需求的加速走弱 | | | | | | | | | 。盘后公布的SCFI欧线为1356美元/TEU，环比小幅上涨20美元/TEU，基本对应于 | | | | | | | | | 04.14-04.20期间欧线的订舱价，反映4月下半月船司运价的小幅抬升，前期4月提 | | | | | | | | | 涨基本失败。总体来看，近期EC整体还是受特朗普关税政策带来的宏观影响较 | | | | | | | | | 多，尤其是关税壁垒可能带来的全球贸易需求的衰退，现货运价影响较为有限。 | | | | | | 震荡 | | | 欧线传统来说即将迎来二季度的季节性旺季，但在高额关税的不确定性影响下， | | | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/4/14 | 星期一 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3712.20 | 3699.80 | 3673.00 | 3624.00 | 前日收盘价 | 3732.20 | 3717.40 | 3686.60 | 3638.80 | | | 涨跌 | 14.40 | 11.40 | 7.80 | 8.80 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.39 | ...

宏 | | 黄金持续走强，白银出现补涨。近期随着贸易战激烈兑现，并引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市 | | --- | --- | | | 场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美国债务等问题愈发凸显，黄金进入"上不见顶"状态， | | 评 | 价格继续刷新历史新高。市场对美联储重启QE和提前降息的预期升温。上周特朗普批准暂停征 | | 论 | 收关税90天，市场情绪有所修复。但政策和市场的不确定性继续推升黄金。而面对未来通胀上 | | 及 | 行压力，鲍威尔也未对未来降息进行松口。后续市场的主要指引来自于市场形成对特朗普关税 | | 策 | | | 略 | 政策更为明确的预期、各国的政策反制/谈判走向、美国经济是否会显露更多实质性的衰退信 | | | 号、美联储政策指引能否有效对冲关税负面影响等，警惕短期内呈现衰退叙事的进一步升温， | | | 黄金整体维持强势。 | | 免 | 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 | | 责 | （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） | | 声 | | | 明 | 研究局限性和风险提示 | | | 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在经济表现不及预期， ...

20250414申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 投资咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7169 | 7351 | 7252 | 7118 | 7265 | 7189 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7177 | 7329 | 7237 | 7122 | 7279 | 7184 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -8 | 22 | 15 | -4 | -14 | 5 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.11% | 0.30% | 0.21% | -0.06% | -0.19% | 0.07% | | 场 | 成交量 | 7056 | 183209 | 396471 | 2093 | 13 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，4月11日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了285亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量285亿 元，中标量285亿元。Wind数据显示，当日无逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放285亿元。本周央行公开市场将有 | | --- | --- | | | 4742亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一至本周五分别到期935亿元、1674亿元、1189亿元、659亿元、285亿元。此外，本 | | | 周二还有1000亿元MLF到期。 2、中国央行称，初步统计，2025年一季度社会融资规模增量累计为15.18万亿元，比上年同期多2.37万亿元。3月 | | | 末，广义货币（M2）余额326.06万亿元，同比增长7%。狭义货币（M1）余额113.49万亿元，同比增长1.6%。流通中货 | | | 币（M0）余额13.07万亿元，同比增长11.5%。一季度人民币贷款增加9.78万亿元。分部门看，住户贷款增加1.04万亿 元，其中，短期贷款增加1603亿元，中长期贷款增加8832亿元。业内人士预计，4月金融总量增长仍有支撑，尽管部 | | | 分企业的有效信贷需求可能回落，但我国经济具有强大的韧性，各方 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7680 | 8748 | 9310 | 3082 | 2596 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 34 | -6 | 45 | 8 | 17 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.44% | -0.07% | -3.15% | 0.26% | 0.66% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | 66 | 80 | 197 | -516 | 1674 | 1158 | | 市 场 | 前值 | 62 | 70 | 198 | -540 | 1669 | 1129 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy effect of boosting consumption is gradually emerging. In March, the decline in CPI and PPI narrowed, and the core CPI rebounded significantly, showing positive price changes [1][7]. - Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact of low oil prices on US sanctions against Venezuela and Iran [2][13]. - Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about the future of Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - For A - shares, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on policies to boost the domestic economy [4][5][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News Concerns of the Day International News - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that the EU agreed to suspend counter - measures against US tariffs for 90 days, and preparations for further counter - measures are ongoing [6]. Domestic News - In March, CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI rose by 0.5% year - on - year, showing positive price changes [1][7]. Industry News - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up, help foreign - trade enterprises expand the domestic market, and carry out activities such as the "China Tour of High - quality Foreign - trade Products" [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 dropped by 3.46%, the European STOXX 50 rose by 3.50%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.61%, the US dollar index fell by 1.97%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 3.53%, London gold rose by 3.02%, London silver rose by 0.78%, and other commodities also had corresponding price changes [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: After a sharp drop in US stocks and a slight decline in A50, the stock index rebounded significantly. The "stabilizing the market" combination of policies since April 7 has boosted market confidence. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, focusing on domestic economic - boosting policies [4][5][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield declined. The central bank's net cash withdrawal, the slowdown of US inflation, and the possibility of the central bank's policy adjustment are factors affecting Treasury bonds. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices are expected to be supported, while long - term prices may fluctuate more [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC rose slightly at night. The US Energy Information Administration lowered the global oil demand forecast. Trump's tariff policy led to concerns about economic growth. Short - term bearish on oil prices, but also pay attention to the impact on US sanctions [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Similar to crude oil, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the reduction of global oil demand forecast, short - term bearish on oil prices [14]. - **Rubber**: The market is still concerned about tariffs. The demand outlook is poor, but the supply side has some support. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the rubber price is expected to be weak [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Affected by US tariffs and the increase in crude oil supply, the international oil price decline dragged down polyolefins. Pay attention to cost and demand changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. Soda ash futures were in a narrow - range consolidation, with weak supply - demand fundamentals [18]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures price is weak due to insufficient demand and cost support [19]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol futures price is under pressure due to rising inventory and limited improvement in downstream orders [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold remains strong due to policy and market uncertainties, and the market is concerned about Trump's tariff policies and other factors [3][21]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and inventory [22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by US tariffs, and pay attention to factors such as exchange rates and smelting output [23]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose slightly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to tariff uncertainties [24]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term due to the uncertainty of nickel ore supply and other factors [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, demand increased, and inventory increased. The lithium price may decline further if production is not adjusted [26]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The impact of tariffs on black commodities is limited. Iron ore demand has support, but there is medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Steel**: The direct impact of tariffs on steel is limited, but emotions may suppress the price. Pay attention to the resumption of production by steel mills and demand recovery [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke are weak. Pay attention to the digestion of upstream inventory and the performance of terminal demand [29]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by cost and demand. Pay attention to steel procurement and inventory digestion [30][31]. Agricultural Products - **Oils and Fats**: The night - trading prices of soybean and palm oil were strongly volatile. The March palm oil supply - demand report in Malaysia had a neutral impact, and the rise in oil prices will boost the oils and fats sector [32]. - **Protein Meal**: The night - trading prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weakly volatile. The far - month soybean meal price has support due to possible changes in US soybean planting area and import volume [33]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Affected by Trump's tariff policy, the market risk preference rebounded. The traditional peak season of the European line is uncertain, and it is necessary to pay attention to shipping company's capacity control and price increases [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The A - share market withstood the downward pressure from reciprocal tariffs, and the implied volatility significantly declined. After the multi - department "stabilizing the market" combination punches since April 7, market confidence was greatly boosted. It is recommended to cautiously go long, focusing on China's policies to boost the domestic economy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3712.20, 3699.80, 3673.00, and 3624.00 respectively, with increases of 53.80, 54.80, 52.80, and 56.20. The trading volumes were 51403.00, 6892.00, 83748.00, and 15704.00, and the positions were 72066.00, 13205.00, 141689.00, and 54672.00, with position changes of - 7839.00, - 46.00, - 8901.00, and - 2634.00 [1] - **IH Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2598.40, 2596.00, 2582.20, and 2553.00, with increases of 22.40, 22.00, 19.00, and 19.20. The trading volumes were 23535.00, 3041.00, 43873.00, and 8311.00, and the positions were 27480.00, 5453.00, 48237.00, and 19584.00, with position changes of - 5513.00, - 153.00, - 10558.00, and - 750.00 [1] - **IC Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5509.00, 5452.20, 5381.20, and 5259.60, with increases of 100.60, 102.00, 104.00, and 103.00. The trading volumes were 60899.00, 7746.00, 53950.00, and 12652.00, and the positions were 65270.00, 15766.00, 97111.00, and 45043.00, with position changes of - 12254.00, 578.00, - 7542.00, and - 1801.00 [1] - **IM Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 5744.80, 5666.20, 5578.20, and 5419.00, with increases of 134.80, 130.60, 127.20, and 125.20. The trading volumes were 96804.00, 14381.00, 222566.00, and 35576.00, and the positions were 92361.00, 20103.00, 174420.00, and 72984.00, with position changes of - 14457.00, 452.00, - 10128.00, and - 4151.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 12.40, - 2.40, - 56.80, and - 78.60 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 14.80, 0.60, - 55.20, and - 80.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 3686.79, 2612.62, 5439.77, and 5784.59, with increases of 0.99%, 0.60%, 2.12%, and 2.34% respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different performance. For example, the raw materials industry increased by 2.79%, the optional consumption industry increased by 2.23%, while the energy industry decreased by 0.33% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The current basis values of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indexes changed compared with the previous two - day values, showing different convergence or divergence trends [1] 3.4 Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3186.81, 9539.89, 5937.04, and 1858.36, with increases of 1.31%, 1.22%, 0.90%, and 0.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 20264.49, 31714.03, 5456.90, and 19670.88, with increases of 0.68%, - 3.93%, 9.52%, and - 3.00% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's March CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.5% year - on - year [2] - The US March CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, significantly lower than the previous month's 2.8%, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than market expectations [2] - More than 450 listed companies have obtained bank stock repurchase and increase loans, with a total loan limit of over 90 billion yuan [2] - China will improve the modern national export control system, and the stance on the US tariff war is that China is not afraid to fight back [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The new mechanism for toll roads encourages private enterprises to participate, and prohibits using BT models to变相 raise debts [2] - China's new energy storage industry is developing rapidly, with a new energy storage installed capacity of over 75 million kilowatts by the end of February [2] - China will moderately reduce the import of US films due to the US tariff policy [2] - Beijing plans to achieve large - scale 5G applications by the end of 2027 [2]