Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: Trade tensions are easing, with the US initial jobless claims continuing to weaken and the labor market being moderate, leading to a positive macro - expectation. The nickel price is expected to shift upward due to potential macro improvements [3][11]. - Fundamental aspect: Indonesian nickel ore supply is increasing, and the cost pressure is weakening. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded under domestic policies, driving nickel - iron prices to stabilize, but cost pressure still exists, and steel mill production has no obvious increase. The nickel sulfate market is active but with stable prices. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and market sentiment is cautious [3]. - Future outlook: The macro situation is expected to improve further, while the fundamentals have no obvious improvement expectation. The nickel price may shift upward driven by the macro factors [3][11]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Last Week's Market Data - SHFE nickel price rose from 122,550 yuan/ton to 124,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,810 yuan/ton; LME nickel price dropped from 15,523 dollars/ton to 15,320 dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased by 3,654 tons to 203,922 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 164 tons to 21,947 tons [4]. 2. Market Conditions Review Nickel Ore - Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 51 dollars/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at 37.65 dollars/wet ton. Philippine nickel ore prices in August decreased month - on - month, and the overseas nickel resource shortage has eased [5]. Pure Nickel - In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, and smelter production increased slightly month - on - month. The export profit has narrowed, but the export window is still open. Russian nickel is expected to flow into China, and the inventory pressure may increase [5]. Nickel Iron - The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 900 yuan/nickel point to 908 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia in June and July showed different trends in year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons. The inventory of nickel iron decreased but remained at a high level. Stainless - steel production is difficult to increase significantly, and the consumption of nickel iron is limited [6]. Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,230 yuan/ton to 27,280 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate in June decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased, and the downstream and upstream inventory days decreased [7][8]. New Energy - From July 1 - 20, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 537,000, a 23% increase year - on - year and a 12% decrease compared with the same period last month. The consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has slowed down. The nickel sulfate market is active, but the actual trading volume is poor, and the price increase is limited [9]. 3. Macro and Inventory - The US initial jobless claims are at a low level, and the manufacturing and service PMIs have different performances. The trade tensions have eased, and the EU may impose counter - tariffs. The current pure nickel social inventory and the inventory of the two major exchanges have decreased [10]. 4. Industry News - Indonesia urges entrepreneurs to resubmit mining work plans and budgets; the US asks Indonesia to resume nickel exports, but Indonesia will not lift the ban on raw ore exports; Vale is looking for partners for a nickel smelter project; Lifezone releases a feasibility report for a nickel mine; Russian Norilsk Nickel cuts its 2025 production forecast [12]. 5. Related Charts - The report provides charts on domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME nickel premiums and discounts, nickel futures and port inventories, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventories [14][16].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's reaction to "anti - involution" and the elimination of old - fashioned production capacity has been overheated, and there is a need for sentiment adjustment. The upward pressure on alumina futures at high levels has increased. However, the short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices next week when entering the delivery month [2][6] - The supply of alumina in the south has become more tight due to the short - term maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a southwestern alumina plant, while the supply in the north is relatively loose. The theoretical starting capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the acceptance of high - priced alumina by electrolytic aluminum plants has improved, leading to a slight improvement in consumption. Spot holders are strongly supporting prices, and the spot price continues to rise [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data | Data Type | 2025/7/18 | 2025/7/25 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 3133 | 3428 | 295 | yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3202 | 3255 | 53 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 51 | - 172 | - 223 | yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 368 | 376 | 8 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 85.12 | - 138.62 | - 53.5 | yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 6922 | 9031 | 2109 | tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 73 | 73 | 0 | US dollars/ton | [3] 2. Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 9.42% last week, closing at 3428 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the alumina spot market was reported at 3255 yuan/ton on Friday, up 53 yuan/ton from last week [4] - The supply shortage of bauxite continues, and the price is slightly adjusted. The price of imported ores is expected to be stable, and attention should be paid to the impact of overseas situations on China's imported ore market and spot trading [4] - The starting capacity of alumina is basically stable. As of July 24, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the starting capacity was 93.2 million tons, and the starting rate was 81.18% [4] - The theoretical starting capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has increased slightly, and the demand for alumina has theoretically increased [4] - The warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures increased by 2109 tons to 0.9 million tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][4][6] 3. Market Outlook - The news that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in ten industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical industries has continuously triggered expectations of supply - side interference, and the bullish sentiment for alumina is high [2][6] - The short - term supply and demand fundamentals are stable, the warehouse receipt inventory is still at a low level, and the high premium of deliverable goods in the spot market makes it difficult to create warehouse receipts. The low warehouse receipts may limit the decline of alumina prices when entering the delivery month next week [2][6] 4. Industry News - A large - scale alumina plant in Shanxi plans to end the previous production cut at the end of the month and resume full - capacity operation, with the operating capacity increasing to 2.8 million tons [7] - An alumina enterprise in Shandong plans to reach full - capacity production in early August, with a resumption of production capacity of about 350,000 tons [7] - From January to June 2025, China imported a total of 103.4 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 34% [7] - In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year decrease of 17.71%, and imported 101,300 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 168.44%. The net import of alumina in June was - 69,700 tons [7] 5. Related Charts - The report includes charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina's current - month to continuous - first spread, domestic bauxite prices, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, alumina exchange inventory, and alumina cost - profit [9][10][12][14][17][20][21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The change in the trade negotiation situation between the US and other countries is the main factor affecting the precious metal market. The prices of gold and silver fluctuate with the tension and relaxation of the negotiation situation. The agreement reached in the US - Japan tariff negotiation and the positive progress in the US - EU trade negotiation have weakened the safe - haven sentiment and put pressure on precious metals [3]. - The "reciprocal tariff" rate imposed by the US on Japan will be reduced from 25% to 15%. The agreement also includes Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US and buy $8 billion worth of US goods. The US and the EU are moving towards an agreement that will set a 15% tariff rate for most products [3]. - With the US and Japan reaching a major trade agreement and progress in the US - EU negotiation, the global trade situation is stabilizing, and the risk - aversion sentiment in the market is cooling. It is expected that the short - term precious metal prices will show a weak trend. But the possibility of a change in the Fed's leadership increases market concerns about the stability of monetary policy, and the downward adjustment space for precious metals is expected to be limited [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 777.32 yuan/gram, up 0.30 yuan (0.04%), with a total trading volume of 211,851 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 773.61 yuan/gram, down 6.39 yuan (- 0.82%), with a total trading volume of 29,664 lots and a total open interest of 209,130 lots. - COMEX gold closed at $3338.50/ounce, down $17.00 (- 0.51%). - SHFE silver closed at 9392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9372 yuan/kg, up 4 yuan (0.04%), with a total trading volume of 350,054 lots and a total open interest of 3,380,200 lots [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US - Japan and US - EU trade negotiations have made progress. The US - Japan agreement may become a "template" for other partner countries. The EU is also moving towards an agreement, but is preparing a retaliatory tariff plan. Market sentiment has turned optimistic [6][7]. - US President Trump has criticized the Fed for lacking "courage" and called for a three - percentage - point interest rate cut. The market is worried about the uncertainty of monetary policy. It is generally expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting, and investors still bet on a possible rate cut in September [7]. - The European Central Bank has kept its three key interest rates unchanged and has not provided any forward guidance on the subsequent policy path, listing "trade disputes" as the main source of policy uncertainty [8]. - This week, focus on the preliminary value of the US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, the US July non - farm payrolls report, the US July ISM manufacturing index, the Fed's interest - rate meeting on July 29 - 30, and the progress of the US - EU trade negotiation [9]. 3. Important Data Information - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest level since mid - April, lower than the market expectation of 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - The preliminary value of the US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.2 and the composite PMI was 54.6, both at the highest since December 2024. - The preliminary value of the eurozone July manufacturing PMI was 49.8, the highest since July 2022, and the service PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.2, driving the composite PMI to 51, all higher than market expectations. - In the first half of the year, China's gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%; gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%; the increase in domestic gold ETF holdings was 84.771 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.73%, and the holdings at the end of June were 199.505 tons [10]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 957.09 tons, an increase of 13.46 tons from last week, 3.70 tons from last month, and 113.92 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15,230.43 tons, an increase of 572.22 tons from last week, 364.24 tons from last month, and 890.08 tons from last year [11]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - The data shows the changes in the non - commercial long, short, and net long positions of gold and silver futures from July 1, 2025, to July 22, 2025 [12][15]. - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, and relationships between different factors of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, such as the price relationship between domestic and foreign markets, the relationship between prices and other economic indicators like the US inflation expectation, the dollar index, etc. [16][17][18][19][20][21][23][25][27][28][30][32][34][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council aims to resist "involution - style" competition and optimize the allocation of state - owned capital. The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply [1][4][5]. - Fundamentally, last week's industrial data was average, with a weak balance between supply and demand. The output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The output and apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market sentiment dominated the futures price trend, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [1][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 16533372 | 2980480 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 5506489 | 1507782 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 802.5 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 2593703 | 562835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1259.0 | 333.0 | 35.96 | 15546782 | 834111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1763.0 | 245.0 | 16.14 | 397069 | 54288 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated strongly, affected by market sentiment. In the second half of the week, the market showed differentiation, and the sentiment cooled down. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3160 (+160) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3430 (+180) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3500 (+160) yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will check coal production in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply. From January to June this year, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation in China, with 6 regions having a start - up rate of over 80%. Multiple departments are taking measures to combat "involution - style" competition [6][10] 3.4 Related Charts - The content provides 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and other aspects [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead price of the main SHFE contract fluctuated narrowly last week. Macroscopically, the tariff negotiation made progress, and the domestic anti - involution policy expectation was positive, leading to a good market risk preference. Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates and waste batteries did not improve much, and the processing fees of domestic and imported lead concentrates decreased in August, while the price of waste batteries increased slightly, providing strong cost support for the lead price. On the smelting side, the production of some smelters in Henan had not recovered, and the operating rate of electrolytic lead smelters decreased. The production of secondary lead smelters was stable, but the losses expanded after the lead price dropped. On the demand side, some countries in the Middle East imposed tariffs on China's lead - acid battery exports, and the US tariff on Vietnam also affected China's battery exports. The current consumption peak season did not improve significantly, and the downstream maintained a rigid - demand purchasing rhythm. Overall, the favorable macro - environment and cost support boosted the lead price, but stable smelter production, weakened battery export expectations, and under - expected peak - season consumption dragged down the lead price. In the short term, with multiple factors in play, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, waiting for new variables [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary according to the Directory 1. Transaction Data | Contract | July 18th | July 25th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16820 | 16955 | 135 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2011.5 | 2020.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.36 | 8.39 | 0.03 | | | SHFE Inventory | 62335 | 63254 | 919 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268400 | 266275 | - 2125 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 6.9 | 7.14 | 0.24 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 195 | - 165 | 30 | Yuan/ton | [4] 2. Market Review - The main SHFE lead contract PB2509 fluctuated narrowly last week. Supported by the warm atmosphere in the domestic commodity market and suppressed by high inventories, the contract finally closed at 16955 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.65%. On Friday night, it rose first and then fell. Affected by the weak US dollar, LME lead continued to rebound, but was slightly adjusted in the second half of the week due to warehouse receipts and the US dollar's stabilization. It finally closed at 2020.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.45%. - In the spot market as of July 25th, the price of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets was reported at a discount to relevant contracts. The supply of ex - factory electrolytic lead was limited, and the price was at a premium, while the premium of some high - priced offers decreased. The price of secondary lead was reported at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price. - In terms of inventory, as of July 25th, the LME weekly inventory was 266275 tons, a weekly decrease of 2125 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63254 tons, an increase of 919 tons from the previous week. As of July 24th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 7.14 million tons, an increase of 100 tons from Monday and 0.24 million tons from last Thursday. [5][6] 3. Industry News - In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the average imported ore processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. - In June, lead ingot imports were 0.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 44.97% and a year - on - year increase of 0.32%. Lead ingot exports were 0.42 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from May, a month - on - month decrease of 35.60% and a year - on - year increase of 142.54%. The export volume of lead - acid batteries in June was 18.7446 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 16.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, inventory status, lead price premium and discount, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss. [10][12][13]

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 28 日 供需变化不大 情绪主导震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 ⚫ 需求端：上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。上周247家钢厂高炉开工率 83.46%，环比上周持平，同比去年增加1.13个百分 点，日均铁水产量 242.23万吨，环比上周减少0.21 万吨，同比去年增加2.62万吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海外发运量环比小幅回升，处于近三年 同期偏高水平。上周全球铁矿石发运总量3109.1万 吨，环比增加122.0万吨。库存方面，全国47个港口 进口铁矿库存14395.68万吨，环比增加14.17万吨； 日均疏港量329.33万吨，降9.43万吨。 ⚫ 总体上，上周新增1座高炉复产，1座高炉检修，铁水 产量环比小幅减少。供应端，上周海外发运量环比小 幅回升，处于近三年同期偏高水 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US economy shows a mixed picture with manufacturing in contraction and inflation pressure rising, while the EU and the US are in trade negotiations and the ECB maintains interest rates. Domestically, the stock and commodity markets are positive, the bond market is under pressure, and various commodities show different trends affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment [2][3] - The prices of precious metals are in回调 due to the expected easing of trade tensions; copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile; aluminum prices are likely to oscillate; alumina prices will stay in a short - term oscillation; zinc prices will adjust at a high level; lead prices will move horizontally; tin prices will oscillate at a high level; industrial silicon prices will be strongly oscillating; lithium carbonate prices will have a wide - range oscillation; nickel prices may oscillate strongly; crude oil prices will have their center of gravity lifted; steel prices will oscillate; iron ore prices will oscillate; and the prices of bean and rapeseed meal will have a wide - range oscillation, while palm oil prices may oscillate strongly [4][6][8][10][11][13][15][16][18][20][22][24][25][26][28] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US 7 - month Markit manufacturing PMI is 49.5 (in contraction), the service PMI is 55.2 (a new high for the year), inflation pressure rises, and business confidence drops. The EU and the US are close to a trade deal, but the EU has approved a 930 - billion - euro anti - tariff measure on US products. The ECB maintains interest rates, and the market's expectation of further rate cuts weakens [2] - Domestic: The A - share market breaks through 3600 points, with a trading volume of about 1.9 trillion yuan. The bond market is under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y treasury bond rates rise to 1.74% and 1.95% respectively [3] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fall 0.77% to $3371.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fall 0.55% to $39.285 per ounce. The expected easing of global trade tensions weakens the demand for hedging, putting pressure on precious metals [4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper slightly falls. The US manufacturing contraction and the approaching tariff deadline make the overseas capital market cautious. Freeport's second - quarter copper production is 43.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Copper prices are expected to remain high - level volatile [6][7] Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closes at 20760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.41%. The increase in the US dollar index and the weak US manufacturing PMI increase the pressure on aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots accumulates, while the inventory of aluminum rods decreases. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8][9] Alumina - The main contract of alumina futures closes at 3355 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.81%. The low - level warehouse receipt inventory provides support for alumina prices, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10] Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc has an intraday volatile and strong trend. The decrease in the position of an LME seat, the slight increase in LME inventory, and the slight discount of LME0 - 3 spot ease the squeeze - out concern. Zinc prices are expected to adjust at a high level [11][12] Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead moves horizontally. The high inventory pressure is not relieved, and the consumption improvement is insufficient. Lead prices are expected to move horizontally in the short term, and attention should be paid to consumption variables [13][14] Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillates at a high level. The decrease in the position of an LME seat eases the squeeze - out concern, but the rainy season in Southeast Asia may affect the transportation of tin ore in Myanmar. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [15] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon is strongly oscillating. The supply side is in a passive contraction state, and the demand side shows different trends. Supported by policies, the prices are expected to be strongly oscillating, but the risk of high - level decline should be guarded against [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate runs strongly, and the spot price slightly rises. The market is affected by various news, and the price amplitude increases. The spot market is cold, and lithium prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [18][19] Nickel - Nickel prices oscillate weakly. The supply of nickel ore is becoming more abundant, and the cost pressure of nickel iron still exists. The introduction of the price draft may make nickel prices oscillate strongly [20][21] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices oscillate. The short - term geopolitical risk cools down, the EIA crude oil inventory decreases more than expected, and the macro - sentiment is strengthening, pushing up the center of gravity of crude oil prices [22][23] Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillate. Multiple departments are promoting anti - involution competition rectification. The supply and demand of steel are in a weak balance. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [24] Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The supply of iron ore is sufficient, and the cost increase due to the rise of coke prices suppresses the bargaining space of iron ore. The demand remains resilient. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate [25] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal fall. The water - heat conditions in the US soybean - producing areas are good, and the export sales of new - crop soybeans are slow. Affected by the protein - reduction policy, the long - position funds reduce their positions, and the prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [26][27] Palm Oil - Palm oil prices may oscillate strongly. The production of Malaysian palm oil is in an increasing cycle, and the potential demand from countries like India provides support. The market expects future supply to tighten [28][29]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250724 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：全球关税路径趋明，中美下周重启谈判 海外方面，对等关税有所进展，①欧媒称美欧接近达成关税协议，拟设 15%基准税率、 部分行业豁免；②特朗普称将对多数国家征收 15%-50%关税，若主要国家开放市场，美国 愿意取消关税；③美中拟下周斯德哥尔摩会谈，争取 8 月 12 日前达成协议。美财长贝森特 称美联储预测带有政治偏见，特朗普再度施压鲍威尔，要求尽快降息，目前 9 月降息概率升 至 61%。随着多国关税路径逐步明朗，市场风险偏好上升，标普 500 再创新高，金价回调， 美元指数偏弱，铜价震荡收涨。当前美国基本面依然稳健，美联储独立性与关税博弈构成主 要不确定性来源，今日关注 7 月 PMI 数据。 国内：股市与商品市场情绪依旧积极，但多空博弈加剧，情绪或临近阶段性高点。A 股 冲高回落，两市成交维持 1.9 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 领涨，整体赚钱效应趋弱，内需商品 出现部分获利了结迹象。 ...

Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, with the approaching August 1st tariff deadline, there is intense tariff - related game - playing among countries. The US - EU trade negotiation is bleak, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has increased market uncertainty. In the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold, copper, etc. [2] - Domestically, the expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. [2] - For different commodities, most are expected to show a certain degree of strength in the short - term, but are also affected by various factors such as trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment. [3][6][7][8][10][11][13][15][17][19][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The August 1st tariff deadline is approaching. The US emphasizes "quality first", and many countries are in intense tariff - related games. The US - EU trade negotiation is on the verge of collapse, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The "firing Powell" incident has not subsided, increasing political pressure on the Fed. During the US stock earnings season, the market risk preference rises, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields weaken, boosting the prices of gold and copper. [2] - Domestic: The expectation of supply - side optimization boosts the market. The stock market and domestic - demand - priced commodities show positive sentiment. The A - share market has a large - volume increase, and domestic - demand varieties such as coking coal, industrial silicon, and glass rise significantly. The risk preference of the stock and commodity markets continues to increase, and the Treasury bond yield rises. [2] 3.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.55% to $3410.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce. The uncertainty of the US reaching a trade agreement before August 1st, the weakening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and the brewing of EU counter - measures against US tariffs have all boosted precious metal prices. The market's speculation about the possible replacement of Fed Chairman Powell and the reshaping of the Fed has also increased market tension. It is expected that precious metal prices will fluctuate strongly in the near future. [3][4] 3.3 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper continued to rebound, and LME copper rose strongly above $9800. The spot market of electrolytic copper had good transactions, and downstream buyers replenished stocks at low prices. Domestically, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce an action plan to support key industrial sectors, which will significantly boost metal demand. Abroad, SolGold is accelerating the development of its copper - gold project in Ecuador. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short - term, affected by factors such as global trade situations and supply - demand relationships. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose. The overseas market is cautious before the US tariff negotiation deadline, and the domestic market interprets the news from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a new round of supply - side reform, which has led to a significant increase in Shanghai aluminum prices. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has slightly increased, and the spot transaction maintains a high premium. It is expected that aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose significantly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's requirements for structural adjustment and elimination of backward production capacity in ten major industries have increased the market's expectation of supply - side interference, driving up the alumina futures price. It is expected that alumina will continue to run strongly in the short - term. [11] 3.6 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The prospect of the US - EU trade agreement is bleak, the domestic policy of stabilizing growth is expected to ferment, and the LME still has a risk of short - squeezing. The domestic consumption off - season has certain resilience, and the pattern of weak supply and demand has not been effectively reflected in inventory. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [12][13] 3.7 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. After the current - month delivery, the inventory continued to increase, and the downstream battery consumption has not improved significantly, which has dragged down the lead price. However, the cost - side support is effective, and the policy of stabilizing growth in the non - ferrous metal industry has a positive impact on the lead price. In the short - term, the lead price will stabilize and fluctuate. [14][15] 3.8 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly. The positive market atmosphere boosts the tin price. Fundamentally, the resumption of work in some smelters has slightly increased the operating rate of refined tin, but overall it remains at a low level. The downstream is in the consumption off - season, and the inventory has slightly increased. Although the tin price runs strongly following the non - ferrous metal sector in the short - term, the expected improvement in the raw material end may limit its upward space. [16][17] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The supply - side has shrunk significantly, and the new policy has boosted the spot market. The Xinjiang region's operating rate has dropped below 50%, and the operating rate in the Sichuan - Yunnan region has limited recovery during the wet season. The demand side is affected by factors such as cost and market acceptance. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [18][19] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated, and the spot price rose slightly. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to promote the stable growth of ten major industries has boosted the lithium price. Although the fundamental situation of weak supply and demand has not been alleviated, the lithium price is currently dominated by policies. However, the special cost - ladder structure of lithium carbonate may limit the intensity of policy support, and the increase in lithium price may be less than that of other related varieties. [20] 3.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price fluctuated strongly. The domestic policy of promoting the stable growth of the non - ferrous metal industry has boosted the nickel price. Although the nickel - iron spot market is still cold, the price of pure nickel has risen under policy drive, and the market for nickel sulfate has recovered. It is expected that the nickel price will strengthen under policy drive in the short - term. [22][23] 3.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil fluctuated strongly. Geopolitical factors, such as the possible instability of the Iran - Israel cease - fire agreement, may have an impact on oil prices. In the short - term, there is no obvious driving force in the oil market. Potential geopolitical risks may support oil prices, but the upward space is limited, and the oil market will fluctuate. [24][25] 3.13 Steel Products (Screw - Coil) - On Monday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. At the steel enterprise forum, steel enterprises reached a consensus on strengthening self - discipline and controlling production. The spot market has an increase in both volume and price, and the trade sentiment is good. The macro - level large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The supply - side contraction offsets the unfavorable situation of off - season demand. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation. [26] 3.14 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures showed a strong trend. The arrival of iron ore at ports has decreased, and the shipment has remained stable. The macro - level anti - involution policy improves the fundamental expectation, and the large - scale infrastructure policy expectation boosts the capital market sentiment. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, and the demand for iron ore has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved. It is expected that the iron ore price will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [27] 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean good - rate has decreased, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is changeable. The domestic bean meal inventory continues to increase. The progress of US trade negotiations is slow, and the external market fluctuates and closes down. It is expected that the domestic bean meal will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. [28][29] 3.16 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures price fell. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in the first and middle of July, but the export demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic palm oil inventory continued to increase. The increase in profit - taking behavior of long - position funds has led to a decline in the domestic market after a rise. In the short - term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly. [30][31]