关税疑云未散，铜价小幅调整 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价高位回落，主因全球关税疑云未散，美国政府虽 然愿意延长7月8日的最后期限，但将对伙伴国发出信函说 明具体的贸易协议条款，恐遭伙伴国反制，贸易局势不确 定性仍然较大；此外，中美二轮经贸谈判达成战略性框架 协议的乐观预期也在逐步消化，鲍威尔及美联储官员均表 示当前的货币政策是经济不确定性背景下的最优方案，而 就业市场近期的疲态也体现了美国经济的滞涨风险，海外 宏观对铜价有承压作用。基本面来看，卡莫阿重启但下调 产量预期近3成，全球显性库存持续下降，洋山铜仓单溢 价高企，国内库存低位震荡，盘面近月B结构收窄。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铜周报 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号： ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250613 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国高频就业数据走弱，以色列正式空袭伊朗 海外方面，美国 5 月核心 PPI 月率录得 0.1%，低于预期的 0.30%，但最新初请与续请 失业金人数双双超出预期，创下 2024 年 10 月来新高，市场年内降息预期有所提高。关税方 面，① 特朗普拟数日内签署美英贸易协议核心条款；② 加美谈判取得进展；③ 特朗普称 或将上调汽车关税；④ 美商务自 23 日起对洗衣机、冰箱等钢制家电加征关税。中东地缘局 势仍在恶化，13 日上午以色列空袭伊朗，带动金价站上 3400 美元、油价涨幅超 5%，短期 将加剧市场避险情绪。 国内方面，A 股横盘震荡，两市成交额稳定在 1.3 万亿关口，风格上微盘、科创表现占 优，行业上贵金属、生物科技领涨，波动率仍处于阶段性低位，关注市场对数据、事件的敏 感度抬升，若成交不放量，警惕短期回调风险；资金偏紧带动债市调整，长端国债表现较好。 近期将公布 5 月金融数据、经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that overseas, the first round of China - US economic and trade consultations was held in London, and the inflation expectation in the US decreased for the first time this year. In China, the CPI was negative for four consecutive months, the PPI decline widened, the export and import situation was not optimistic, and the economy was stable in the first half of the year but needed to pay attention to policy and negotiation progress [2][3]. - In the precious metals market, silver started a catch - up rally, with gold prices remaining high and volatile, and silver prices showing strong performance due to factors such as capital preference and relatively low prices [4][5]. - For copper, the start of China - US economic and trade consultations led to a relatively strong copper price, but the spot market trading was cold [6][7]. - Aluminum prices were supported by factors such as the decline of the US dollar index and the reduction of ingot production, but were also restricted by consumption off - season concerns and macro risks, and were expected to fluctuate within a range [8][9]. - Alumina was under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from production resumption, but the cost support limited the downward space [10][11]. - Zinc prices were expected to be weak due to factors such as refinery resumption, weakening demand, and increasing inventory [12]. - Lead prices were expected to fluctuate due to factors such as production reduction, inventory decline, and weak demand [13]. - Tin prices were expected to fluctuate after a rebound due to factors such as the suspension of tin ore transportation from Myanmar, reduced production, and weakening downstream purchasing [14][15]. - Lithium carbonate prices were expected to fluctuate at a low level due to poor demand growth and inventory accumulation [16]. - Nickel prices had limited downward space due to upstream supply contraction, but were affected by macro - level disturbances [17]. - Crude oil prices were expected to have a long - term downward trend, and short - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities due to supply pressure and geopolitical factors [18]. - Steel prices were expected to be under pressure due to weak supply and demand, and the entry of demand into the off - season [19]. - Iron ore prices were expected to be weak due to increased supply and weakening demand [20][21]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the US soybean's good growth rate, positive signals from China - US negotiations, and cost support [22][23]. - Palm oil prices were expected to fluctuate, waiting for the release of the MPOB report [24][25]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. were presented, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [27]. 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - The data of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc. on June 9th and June 6th were compared, including futures prices, spot prices, inventory, and other indicators [27][30][32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market's bullish sentiment was boosted, and bullish funds actively entered the market, causing the Dalian soybean meal futures to rise significantly. However, as China has not yet purchased new - season US soybeans, the changes in subsequent Sino - US trade negotiations need to be monitored. The US soybean sowing season has been relatively smooth, with a good initial report on crop quality, and overall normal weather in the production areas, but the precipitation forecast in the Midwest is slightly dry, which may bring phased growth pressure. Attention should be paid to the area survey report and the change in crop quality at the end of June. Brazil's soybean export peak has passed, and the soybean premium has rebounded. Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is established. - Domestically, oil mills have sufficient purchases of Brazilian soybeans for the June - August shipping schedule. Attention should be paid to the soybean purchase dynamics for the fourth quarter. The arrival of soybeans in China is still ongoing, with an estimated arrival of over 10 million tons in June - July and 8 - 10 million tons in August - September, resulting in a generally loose short - term supply. The operating rate of oil mills remains high, and domestic soybean and soybean meal are still in the process of inventory accumulation, with spot prices gradually declining and basis continuing to weaken. The提货 volume of soybean meal from oil mills has increased significantly, providing short - term support for market demand. Feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory has continued to rise but is at a low level compared to the same period, and there is still a need for restocking in the future. - As new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter have not been purchased, the call between Chinese and US leaders may provide an expectation of improvement for subsequent trade negotiations, boosting the domestic futures market. Attention should be paid to subsequent trade negotiations, the weather in the US soybean production areas, the release of USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Domestically, supply has increased, putting pressure on spot prices, while feed enterprises'提货 and restocking have increased, and inventory has gradually recovered. Technically, the futures market has formed a bottom structure, and long - term there are opportunities to go long on dips. Overall, in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [3][74][75] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since May, soybean meal has shown a weak oscillation followed by a small - scale rebound. At the end of May, the 09 - contract of soybean meal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 2968 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.64%. In the first half of May, the market was mainly influenced by the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in the operating rate of oil mills, leading to an increase in soybean meal supply and a decline in spot prices. The futures market was weakly oscillating due to uncertainties in Sino - US relations. In the second half of May, the market was affected by the potential soybean production reduction in Argentina due to heavy rain and the impact of short - term heavy precipitation on the sowing progress in the US soybean production areas. Bullish funds pushed up the futures market, and the weather model predicted a dry and less - rainy growing season for US soybeans, injecting a certain weather premium into the market. However, due to the sufficient supply of soybeans in the past two months, the upward space was limited in the short term [9] 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the new - season soybean balance sheet released by the US Department of Agriculture in May, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.817 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.41%, showing a slowdown. Global export demand is 188.432 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.18%. The crushing demand is 366.462 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.48%. The ending inventory is 124.33 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons year - on - year, and the stock - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 29.32%, indicating a slight tightening of the global supply - demand situation [12] 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, leading to a decline in ending inventory to 350 million bushels and a stock - to - consumption ratio of 7.98%. In the 2025/2026 season, the sown area is 83.5 million acres, the yield per acre is 52.5 bushels, and the production is 4.34 billion bushels. The US crushing capacity continues to expand, with an annual increase of 70 million bushels to 2.49 billion bushels, and the export demand is slightly reduced to 1.815 billion bushels. The ending inventory of new - season soybeans has dropped to 295 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.68%, indicating a tightening supply situation [16] 2.3 Weather in US Soybean Production Areas - As of the week ending June 1, 2025, the sowing progress of US soybeans was 84%, lower than the market expectation of 86%. The emergence rate was 63%, and the good - quality rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. As of the week ending May 27, about 17% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas will be 80 - 90 mm, which is beneficial for the initial growth of soybeans, and the sowing season is expected to end smoothly [18] 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In April 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. From September 2024 to April 2025, the cumulative US soybean crushing volume was 1.540098 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.24%. As of the week ending May 23, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 1.85 dollars per bushel [22] 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week ending May 22, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year increased by 146,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48.46 million tons, with a sales progress of 96.2%. China did not purchase US soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current year was 22.48 million tons [23] 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2024/2025 season, Brazil's soybean production remained at 169 million tons, export demand was reduced by 1 million tons to 104.5 million tons, and ending inventory increased to 33.31 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production is estimated to be 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, and ending inventory is 34.16 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.6%. In April 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 15.27 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to April was 37.45 million tons [32][38][39] 2.7 Brazilian Soybean Harvest - As of the week ending May 24, 2025, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil was 99.5%, and the harvest work was basically completed [41] 2.8 Argentine Soybean Situation - In the 2024/2025 season, Argentina's soybean production remained at 49 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, production was slightly reduced to 48.5 million tons, crushing demand was raised to 43 million tons, ending inventory was 25.45 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio was 46.27% [44] 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Products - In April 2025, China's soybean import volume was 6.08 million tons, lower than the market expectation, mainly due to tightened customs clearance policies. From October 2024 to April 2025, China's cumulative soybean import volume was 46.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.68 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in May was over 12 million tons, and in June - July it was over 10 million tons. In April 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 489,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.388 million tons. The rapeseed meal import volume in April was 289,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to April was 1.086 million tons [49] 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week ending May 30, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.8288 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 298,000 tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 3.6929 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 7.054 million tons. The daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 82,580 tons, and the daily average提货 volume was 186,080 tons. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.2682 million tons, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 5.99 days [52] 3.3 Feed and Aquaculture Situation - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% and a year - on - year increase of 9.0%. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 42.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.1% [61] 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - Internationally, after the call between Chinese and US leaders, the market sentiment was boosted, but attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations. The US soybean sowing season was smooth, but the Midwest may face growth pressure. Brazil's export peak has passed, and Argentina's soybean harvest is nearly complete. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is loose in the short term, and oil mills and feed enterprises are in the process of inventory adjustment. In the future, attention should be paid to trade negotiations, weather conditions, USDA reports, and the area report at the end of June. Technically, there are long - term opportunities to go long on dips, and in the short term, Dalian soybean meal futures may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [74][75]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of primary lead and recycled lead varies, with marginal increase in supply pressure. The off - season of lead - acid battery consumption continues, and the terminal sectors are slightly differentiated. Enterprises mainly accept long - term orders. With supply increasing and demand weak, there is insufficient upward drive for lead prices. However, due to the continuous existence of structural contradictions in raw material supply and demand, cost factors support lead prices. As the fundamental contradictions are not significantly intensified, it is expected that lead prices will maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][80]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In May 2025, Shanghai lead first increased and then decreased. In the first half of the month, with a series of domestic financial policies, the easing of Sino - US tariffs, and the strengthening of the interest - rate cut expectation due to the cooling of US inflation, the market risk appetite improved, and lead prices oscillated strongly. But it was difficult to break through the resistance at 17,000 yuan, and the price slightly回调. In the second half of the month, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and concerns about the US debt problem led to a decline in market risk appetite. Meanwhile, the arrival of crude lead eased the raw material pressure, the price of waste batteries decreased slightly, the cost loosened, and the off - season of consumption remained unchanged, with increasing inventory pressure. Lead prices gave back the gains from the first half of the month. By May 30, the futures price closed at 16,620 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.31%. - LME lead first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated sideways. At the beginning of the month, tariff concerns gradually cooled, and LME inventory slightly declined from a high level, so LME lead stabilized and rebounded. Subsequently, market sentiment fluctuated around economic pressure, inflation, and interest - rate cut expectations. In the second half of the month, LME inventory increased significantly, strengthening the expectation of overseas surplus, and the lead price was under pressure. The resistance at $2,000/ton was obvious, and the futures price slightly declined and oscillated. Finally, it closed at $1,963.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.98% [8]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: In March 2025, global lead concentrate production was 367,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.21%. The cumulative production from January to March was 1.028 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.5%. ILZSG predicts that the global lead mine production in 2025 is expected to increase by 2.3% to 4.62 million tons. Overseas lead mines are producing steadily, and domestic lead concentrate production is also increasing. It is estimated that the global lead concentrate increment in 2025 is 160,000 tons, with 90,000 tons overseas and 70,000 tons in China. The contradiction of supply - demand mismatch in lead concentrate is expected to persist in the medium term [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees decline month - on - month, and lead concentrate imports decrease month - on - month**: In June 2025, the average monthly processing fees for domestic and overseas lead concentrates were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 60 yuan/metal ton and - 10 dollars/dry ton respectively. In April 2025, lead concentrate imports were 111,050 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 22.13%. The cumulative imports from January to April were 448,700 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 41%. The import of silver concentrate also decreased in April. The supply - demand gap of lead concentrate exists in the long - term, and there is still a slight downward pressure on processing fees [19]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is gentle**: In March 2025, global refined lead production was 1.1316 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.72%. The cumulative production from January to March was 3.2584 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.7%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Overseas, there are no large - scale new refineries in recent years, mainly relying on the resumption and ramping - up of previous shut - down refineries. In China, new recycled lead refineries are the main focus, but projects are often postponed due to raw material constraints [25]. - **Electrolytic lead production in April was lower than expected, and supply mainly recovered in May**: In May 2025, electrolytic lead production was 331,200 tons, slightly lower than expected, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The cumulative production from January to May was 1.562 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.2%. In June, due to more refinery overhauls and tightened lead concentrate supply, it is expected that electrolytic lead production will be 320,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. For the whole year of 2025, electrolytic lead supply is expected to increase steadily [31]. - **The price of waste batteries moves up, and recycled lead refineries gradually resume production**: In May 2025, the average price of waste batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. In June, the price of waste batteries is expected to move up slightly. In May, recycled refined lead production was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a month - on - month decrease of 36.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. In June, production is expected to rebound to 267,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9%, but the raw material supply problem still needs attention [36][37]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: In March 2025, global refined lead consumption was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.37%. The cumulative consumption from January to March was 3.242 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.3%. ILZSG predicts that the global refined lead demand in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons. In 2025, global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on the lead - battery demand in the automotive industry [46][47]. - **Lead - battery consumption is in the off - season, and sectors are differentiated**: In May, lead - battery enterprises maintained the characteristics of the seasonal off - season, with the five - province battery enterprise operating rate at 70.45% at the end of May. The production of electric - bicycle and automotive lead - battery markets changed little, while the operating rate of energy - storage battery enterprises was relatively good. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the operating rate may rebound slightly but will remain in the range of 70 - 73% [54]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports**: In April 2025, the refined lead export volume was 3,368 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.09% and a year - on - year increase of 15.54%. The refined lead import volume in April was 4,734 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3496.9% and a month - on - month increase of 65.1%. The lead - battery export volume in April was 2.0463 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and a month - on - month increase of 8.3%. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to battery exports [55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead - battery consumption prospect marginally**: In the terminal demand of lead - batteries, automotive and electric - bicycle batteries account for a large proportion. In the automotive sector, the lead - battery demand is strong, with both replacement and new - car supporting demands increasing. In the electric - bicycle sector, policies such as trade - in and the new national standard are beneficial to lead - battery consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the market scale is growing, and lead - battery demand also has growth potential [69][70][71]. 2.4 Overseas Inventory First Decreases and Then Increases, and There is Pressure on Domestic Inventory Accumulation - In May, LME inventory first decreased and then increased. By May 30, the inventory was 284,200 tons, a monthly increase of 20,000 tons. The domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. By May 29, the inventory was 49,400 tons, a monthly increase of 4,600 tons. In June, inventory is expected to rise again, but the accumulation volume is limited [76][78]. 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The supply - demand imbalance of lead concentrate remains unchanged. In June, the domestic and overseas processing fees decreased slightly. The electrolytic lead production in May increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than expected, and it decreased in June. The recycled lead production decreased significantly in May and increased in June, but the resumption rhythm is restricted by raw material supply and profitability. The demand for electric - bicycle and automotive lead - batteries remains in the off - season, while the energy - storage battery demand is supported. The Shanghai - London ratio has limited boost to lead ingot exports. In the long - term, policy supports consumption, but the demand growth rate is stable but not strong. Overall, the supply pressure increases marginally, and lead prices are expected to oscillate widely [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The US economy shows signs of weakness, but inflation continues to decline and employment remains resilient. The Fed's policy stance remains cautious. The intensifying game between the US administration and the judiciary has increased the uncertainty of the global trade pattern. In China, the lack of endogenous economic momentum and the long - term impact of the China - US trade game pose great pressure on the export outlook, leading to rising expectations for increased fiscal policies [4][82]. - The supply of zinc concentrates has shifted from tight to loose globally. Overseas new mine capacity has been released smoothly, and domestic raw material inflows have increased. The overall supply remains loose, with both domestic and foreign processing fees rising month - on - month. In June, the supply of refined zinc recovered significantly and is expected to remain high in July [4][82]. - On the demand side, the local debt resolution process restricts the efficiency of infrastructure funds, and infrastructure performance is "stable but not strong". The demand in the real estate and photovoltaic sectors has weakened marginally. Thanks to the tariff suspension and policy support, the automotive and home appliance industries maintain their prosperity, and the export of galvanized sheets remains resilient [4][82]. - Overall, the drag effect of anti - globalization tariff measures on the global economy is emerging, and its uncertainty exacerbates market sentiment fluctuations. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand. The market is shifting from "strong reality" to "weak expectation", and an inventory inflection point is looming. Zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [4][83]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Zinc Market Review - In May 2025, the main contract price of SHFE zinc oscillated in a low - level range. Affected by multiple factors, the zinc price did not change its oscillating trend, closing at 22,225 yuan/ton with a monthly decline of 0.96%. LME zinc showed a trend of rising first and then falling, closing at 2,629.5 US dollars/ton with a monthly increase of 1.9% [9]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US - US economic data has weakened, with manufacturing and non - manufacturing expansion slowing. Retail sales and durable goods orders have declined. However, the employment market remains resilient, and inflation pressure has eased. The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts, and the market generally expects a rate cut in September. The tariff policy is full of uncertainties [12][13]. 2.2 Eurozone - The Eurozone's recovery is weak, with the manufacturing PMI contracting. GDP growth is lower than expected, and inflation continues to decline. The ECB cut interest rates in June, and the market expects another rate cut in September. The EU - US tariff negotiation is tense, adding challenges to the Eurozone's economic recovery [15]. 2.3 China - China's economic data in April mostly declined, and the impact of tariffs is beginning to show. Although the export in April exceeded expectations, the manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, and the non - manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, indicating insufficient domestic demand. The market expects increased fiscal policies [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global zinc concentrate supply shift**: In March 2025, global mine zinc production increased. Overseas production increased by 4.4% year - on - year from January to March, and China's production increased by 2.3%. Although there were short - term disturbances overseas, the impact on production was limited. In China, the production of zinc concentrates in April was slightly higher than expected, and it is expected to increase in May. The annual domestic zinc ore increment is expected to be 90,000 metal tons [27][29]. - **Zinc concentrate processing fees and imports**: In June 2025, domestic and foreign processing fees increased month - on - month. In April, the import of zinc concentrates exceeded expectations, and it is expected to remain at a high level in May [34][35]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas refineries**: Global refined zinc production in March 2025 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Overseas refineries have a situation of both production cuts and expansions, and the risk of supply disruptions still exists [37]. - **Domestic refined zinc**: In May 2025, domestic refined zinc production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to increase significantly in June. In April, the import of refined zinc increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window opened in late April [43][44]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas terminal consumption**: In March 2025, global refined zinc consumption increased. In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed short - term recoveries, but the medium - and long - term consumption prospects are unclear due to factors such as high interest rates and tariff uncertainties [47][48]. - **Domestic initial - stage enterprises and exports**: In early May, the operating rates of domestic initial - stage enterprises were relatively stable. In June, there is an expectation of a slight decline due to seasonal factors. The export of galvanized sheets has continued its strong momentum since 2024, but the growth of new export orders may be limited in May [59][60]. - **Domestic terminal consumption**: Infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable, but there is a seasonal decline expectation in June - July. The real estate market remains weak but shows signs of weak recovery. The automotive industry maintains a high level of prosperity, and the home appliance industry shows resilience but faces medium - and long - term slowdown pressure. The demand in the photovoltaic sector may weaken marginally [61][70]. 3.4 Inventory - LME inventory continued to decline from a high level in May, and the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased. The inventory inflection point is approaching as the supply recovers strongly in June and is expected to remain high in July [79]. Group 4: Summary and Outlook - The macro - environment is complex, with the US economic situation and trade uncertainties affecting the global market. China's economic export faces pressure, and there are expectations for increased fiscal policies. The supply of zinc is abundant, while the demand is weak, and zinc prices are expected to remain weakly volatile [82][83].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Cost side: During the reporting period, the price of spodumene continued to weaken, with Australian miners showing a strong willingness to sell at reduced prices while African mines tried to hold prices. The price of lepidolite also weakened, and the cost - support logic was difficult to materialize [3]. - Supply side: Affected by the continuous decline in lithium prices, there were frequent rumors of lithium salt plant overhauls in May, and high - frequency production declined. Low - cost salt lakes were gradually resuming production but could not fill the supply contraction gap [3]. - Consumption side: The production schedules of ternary and lithium - iron cathodes were relatively stable overall, but the spot inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream demand was weak. In May, the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles was more stable than in April, maintaining between 31% - 32%. Energy storage orders improved, and export demand increased due to the easing of trade relations [3]. - Later views: The high - frequency production of lithium salt has rebounded, indicating the resilience of upstream supply at current prices. With the continuous increase in salt lake production, there are no expected disturbances on the supply side. Lithium ore prices follow the decline of lithium carbonate prices, and short - term cost narratives are difficult to materialize. The demand is expected to be stable. Although the sales of new energy vehicles may enter a slow - growth season, the recovery of energy storage export orders after the easing of Sino - US trade relations may fill the demand gap to some extent. Overall, supply is resilient, price increases will quickly drive upstream production, lithium ore resources are abundant, there are no upstream disturbance risks, and demand is expected to be relatively stable, with the fundamentals remaining flat [3]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review - Market review: In May, the price of lithium carbonate hit a new low. Before mid - May, it was in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. After May 20th, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to rectify vicious competition, and there were rumors of overhauls in Jiangxi lithium salt plants and potential environmental risks, leading to short - covering by bears and a price rebound. However, with the release of high - frequency data showing a slight increase in supply, the market's cautious sentiment eased, and the price weakened again [8]. - Spread review: In May, the electric - industrial spread of lithium carbonate weakened significantly, dropping from - 0.09 million yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to - 0.15 million yuan/ton. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures price was lower than the industrial - grade spot price, closing the arbitrage window. The lithium carbonate - lithium hydroxide spread was near par, with no arbitrage opportunities during the reporting period [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis - Resource end: In May, the price of imported spodumene concentrate further declined, with the price of imported ore (5.5% - 6%) dropping from 722 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month to 661 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of about 8.45%. The price of technical - grade lepidolite (2.5%) also slightly decreased. Although lithium ore prices continued to weaken, global lithium ore mining continued. Many lithium ore projects were accelerating in May. For example, the Jijiaoshan lithium mine of Dazhong Mining had completed the excavation tunnel, and the lithium ore resources in Quebec, Canada, increased significantly. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto Group reached development agreements for lithium salt lake projects with Chile [12]. - Imported ore lithium extraction capacity: In May, the production capacity of lithium carbonate was 214,860 tons, an increase of about 20,000 tons compared to April. The total lithium salt production in May was about 73,020 tons, an increase of 1,368 tons from April. However, there were rumors of production cuts in some lithium salt plants. The production in Sichuan, which mainly uses imported spodumene, decreased significantly from 12,400 tons in April to 9,900 tons in May, while the production of self - owned mica and Qinghai salt lakes showed strong resilience, with slight increases to 11,500 tons and 29,550 tons respectively [14]. - Lithium salt import: In April, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56.3% and a year - on - year increase of 33.6%. The increase was mainly due to the concentrated arrival of some imported resources, which may not be sustainable in the context of weak demand. The export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased in April, which may lead to a contraction in domestic lithium carbonate imports in May. The scale of lithium salt imports from Argentina increased significantly, but the actual production projects in Argentina are limited, and the shipping scale to China fluctuates greatly [16]. - Cathode materials: In May, the production of lithium - iron phosphate was about 269,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.67%. The weekly average operating rate in May was about 58.19%, a decrease of 1.56 percentage points from April. The production of ternary materials was about 63,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The weekly average operating rate of ternary materials in May was about 45.78%, an increase of about 0.6 percentage points from March. The production of ternary materials shifted towards the 6 - series. The inventory of lithium - iron phosphate decreased by 2,295 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by about 75 tons by the end of May [19][20]. - Battery production: In April, the total production of power and other batteries was about 118.1 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 51.22% and a month - on - month increase of 0%. The production of ternary power batteries decreased by 0.3 GWh, and the production of lithium - iron phosphate power batteries increased by 0.3 GWh. The sales of power batteries decreased slightly. The price of square lithium - iron phosphate cells was stable at 0.34 yuan/Wh, and the price of square ternary cells was stable at 0.44 yuan/Wh. The battery factory had a cross - period production adjustment due to the Spring Festival, with significant inventory reduction in March and a slight increase in April. The inventory of vehicle manufacturers increased slightly in April, indicating limited terminal consumption growth [22]. - Power terminal: From January to April, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. In May, the sales of new energy vehicles were relatively stable, with a single - week growth rate between 31% - 32%, lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. In the third quarter, the sales growth of new energy vehicles is usually weak, and the terminal demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The new - replacement policy has a weakening effect on new energy passenger cars, and the policy focus is gradually shifting to new energy heavy trucks, ships and other transportation fields [25]. - Inventory: As of May 30, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 1,185 tons. The market inventory decreased significantly due to weak downstream procurement, while the salt factory inventory increased. The change in exchange warehouse receipts was not obvious. In the future, supply growth may be limited, and inventory trends will depend on downstream procurement plans. If the exchange warehouse receipts are excluded, the market inventory is not high, and downstream active inventory reduction may drive the reduction of factory inventory, while the total inventory level may remain stable [28]. III. Market Outlook - Cost and supply: Lithium ore prices follow the decline of lithium prices, and resource inventory is abundant. Supply is resilient, and there are no upstream disturbance risks (neutral) [29]. - Consumption side: New energy consumption enters the off - season, but the easing of trade relations boosts the increase in energy storage orders, and the demand is expected to be stable overall (neutral) [29]. - Overall view: The high - frequency production of lithium salt has rebounded, indicating the resilience of upstream supply. The supply side has no expected disturbances, and short - term cost support is difficult to materialize. The demand is expected to be stable. Although new energy vehicle sales may enter a slow - growth season, the recovery of energy storage export orders may fill the demand gap to some extent. Overall, supply is resilient, lithium ore resources are abundant, and the fundamentals are flat [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the overall blast furnace production was relatively strong, but the number of blast furnace overhauls increased in the second half of the month, and the molten iron output has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, the construction industry entered the off - season, and the drag from the real estate sector intensified. Steel mills will actively reduce their loads, and the molten iron output will continue to decline [1][6][9]. - In May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. From a seasonal perspective and considering shipping schedules, there is a possibility of a small increase in both shipments and arrivals in June [1][14]. - In the next month, both supply and demand will be weak, and the iron ore price will be under pressure. The supply pressure will increase, and the inventory at ports may start to accumulate slightly in June. The demand for molten iron has been declining for four consecutive weeks, and the terminal demand in the off - season has weakened. The iron ore price is expected to move downward [1][37]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In May, the iron ore futures price showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weakening and volatile trend. In the first half of the month, the iron ore price was strong, supported by the continuous increase in molten iron output and positive progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations. In the second half of the month, the price declined due to the expectation of the off - season for terminal demand and the decline in molten iron output. In June, the market sentiment was cautious due to the weakening downstream demand and the expected increase in supply [6]. - In May, the spot price in Qingdao Port declined, while the Platts Index price was relatively strong. As of June 4, the Platts Iron Ore Price Index 62 Qingdao Port was at $96.35 per ton, a month - on - month decrease of $2.8 or 2.8%. The price differences between high - and low - grade ores weakened, and the spread between 09 - 01 contracts widened slightly [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Iron Water Output Declined from a High Level - In May, the blast furnace production was relatively strong, with the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills at 244 tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. As of June 6, the molten iron output dropped to 241.8 tons per day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11 tons, and it has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, due to the off - season for construction and the slowdown in export growth, steel mill overhauls will increase, and the molten iron output is expected to decline further [9]. - Overseas, the demand for iron ore showed a weakening trend. The overseas consumption of iron elements decreased slightly this year, mainly affected by the slowdown in economic growth. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries declined significantly [10]. 2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments were Stable, with an Expected Increase in June - On June 6, the Western Range Iron Ore Project jointly developed by Rio Tinto and Baowu officially started production, with a designed annual capacity of 25 million tons [13]. - In May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. However, the pressure on iron ore prices restricts the development of high - cost mines [14]. - Last month, the arrival volume decreased slightly. From January to April 2025, the national iron ore imports decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a significant decline in non - mainstream imports [15]. 2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - As of early June, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.26 million tons, a decrease of 4.75 million tons compared to the beginning of last month and a decrease of 11.01 million tons compared to the same period last year. In June, the arrival volume is expected to increase, and the port inventory may start to accumulate slightly [23]. 2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In May, the steel mill inventory of iron ore continued to decline and remained at a low level. As of early June, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 86.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68 million tons. Steel mills will actively reduce their raw material inventories to avoid risks [27]. 2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In May, the production of domestic mines continued to contract, both month - on - month and year - on - year. In the short term, the production reduction trend may continue. In the long - term, the production reduction trend may continue due to the peak of crude steel production and safety policies [28][31]. 2.6 Freight Rates - As of June 5, the BDI index was at 1626 points, a month - on - month increase of 15%. The freight rates for the routes from Dampier, Australia to Qingdao and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao increased compared to the beginning of last month [33]. 3. Market Outlook - On the demand side, the molten iron output has been declining for four consecutive weeks. In June, the construction industry entered the off - season, and the drag from the real estate sector intensified. Steel mills will actively reduce their loads, and the molten iron output will continue to decline [36]. - On the supply side, in May, the total shipment volume of iron ore on the supply side was stable, with an 8% month - on - month increase and a slight year - on - year decrease. In June, due to the fiscal year end rush, overseas shipments are expected to increase slightly. In the next month, both supply and demand will be weak, and the iron ore price is expected to move downward [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro level: US economic soft data has been revised, but the Fed's attitude remains hawkish, and the game between Powell and Trump will continue. Tariff risks have resurfaced, and the court's ruling on Trump's tariffs has been postponed. The "TACO" trading strategy is prevalent, and policy disturbances may be quickly repaired [3]. - Cost aspect: The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia persisted throughout the month, and the price of laterite nickel ore continued to rise. Although there was information about a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia in the middle of the month, the nickel ore price did not loosen, and cost support remained [3]. - Fundamental supply and demand: Both supply and demand decreased. The production of electrolytic nickel contracted slightly, but the export window remained open, and the overall domestic supply remained at a high level. The production of stainless steel decreased for the second consecutive month, and the inventory - reduction process was tortuous. The easing of tariffs did not effectively drive stainless - steel consumption. The production schedule of ternary materials was generally stable, and there were no obvious marginal changes in the fundamentals [3]. - Outlook: Trump's tariff policy may cause periodic disturbances at the macro level, but the policy disturbances may be quickly repaired. On the fundamentals, driven by the export window, the domestic supply of electrolytic nickel may remain at a high level. The inventory of stainless steel is being reduced, but the progress is slow, and the effect of rushing to export may be difficult to materialize. The new - energy consumption growth rate is gradually slowing down, and it is difficult for the demand side to show obvious increments. Overall, there is no expectation of improvement in the fundamentals, the cost - support logic remains, and the macro level may have periodic disturbances, but the correction expectation is strong. Nickel prices may fluctuate at a low level [3][40]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In May, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated weakly. At the beginning of May, due to the boost of the China - US trade agreement, the macro - expectation was repaired, and the nickel price rose. However, as the stainless - steel inventory remained high, the expectation of rushing to export was frustrated, and the price weakened. In the late month, the rumor of a significant increase in the nickel ore approval quota in Indonesia dragged down the nickel price, but the price quickly recovered after the fall [8]. - The spot premium of refined nickel first weakened and then strengthened. Although the nickel price declined in May, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was limited. The premium decreased from 2400 yuan at the beginning of the month to 2150 yuan on May 22nd. At the end of the month, affected by the sharp decline in the nickel price, the downstream purchasing was stimulated, and the premium rose from 2150 yuan on the 22nd to 2600 yuan on the 30th [10]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas - US economic data was mixed. In April, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core PCE was 2.5%, in line with expectations, and the inflation pressure eased. The manufacturing performance was below expectations, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in May at 48.5. The labor market was generally stable [13]. - Tariff risks remained, but the actual disturbance was limited. Trump's tariff policy was initially stopped by the court but then the ruling was postponed. Although Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminum products on May 30th, the market believes that his tariff policy will still follow the "high - start and low - end" pattern, and the "TACO" trading strategy is still popular, so the actual impact is limited [14]. Domestic - The performance of the manufacturing industry was divided, indicating that domestic demand was stronger than foreign trade. In May, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.5, in line with expectations, and the demand - side data improved. However, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was weaker, reflecting the difficulties faced by small and medium - sized private manufacturing enterprises [15]. - Domestic consumption vitality was increasing. In April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased for the second consecutive month, and the CPI growth rate was repaired [16]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Nickel Ore Shortage Continued, and Ore Prices Kept Rising - The price of laterite nickel ore in Indonesia (1.5%) increased from $39.1 per wet ton to $40.8 per wet ton, while the price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore in the Philippines decreased from $51 per wet ton to $48.5 per wet ton. The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia was tight, and the price remained strong. Although there was news of an increase in the approval quota, the price did not loosen. The continuous rainfall in Indonesia and the Philippines affected the shipment of nickel ore [17]. - In April, China's nickel - ore imports were 291.41 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.03%. As of May 30th, the domestic port inventory was about 725.88 tons, a slight increase compared with the end of April but still at an absolute low level in the past three years [19]. 3.3.2 Electrolytic Nickel Supply Contracted Month - on - Month, and Upstream Cost Pressure Was Prominent - In May, the total output of refined nickel in China was 35,350 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37.82%. The capacity utilization rate was 65.34%, 16.13 percentage points lower than the expected level, and the over - capacity pattern continued. In April, the profit margins of all process lines of integrated electrowinning nickel decreased [20]. - In April, China imported 19,157 tons of refined nickel, a year - on - year increase of about 135.76%. The export volume was about 17,216 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 150.3% and 18.51% respectively. The export window remained open, and the average monthly export profit in May was repaired to $204.78 per ton [22]. 3.3.3 Weak Downstream Buying, and Nickel - Iron Inventory Continued to Accumulate - In May, the price of high - nickel pig iron declined from 959 yuan per nickel point at the beginning of the month to 954 yuan per nickel point at the end of the month [24]. - In May, China's nickel - iron output was 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%. In June, the expected production was 25,640 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The cost was strong, and only the Shandong pyrometallurgical BF process could maintain good profits, while the RKEF and EF processes had negative profit margins. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the terminal consumption was still weak. As of May 30th, the domestic nickel - iron inventory was about 275,500 tons (physical tons), an increase of about 27,500 tons compared with the end of April [25]. - In April, the domestic nickel - iron imports were about 816,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 19.38%. The imports from Indonesia accounted for about 97.28% [26]. 3.3.4 No Obvious Increment in Demand, and the Expectation of Nickel Sulfate Was Stable - In May, the price of nickel sulfate fluctuated weakly. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased from 28,085 yuan per ton at the beginning of the month to 27,915 yuan per ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate decreased to about 30,000 yuan per ton [28]. - In May, the output of nickel sulfate was 26,015 tons (metal content), a year - on - year decrease of 20.51% and a month - on - month increase of 0.39%. The output of ternary materials increased. The output of 5 - series and 8 - series ternary cathode materials decreased month - on - month, while the production of 6 - series ternary materials expanded. Except for the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, which was still in a loss state, the profit margins of other process lines were positive. In April, China imported about 32,604 tons of nickel sulfate and exported 567 tons [29]. 3.3.5 Supply Contracted, and Inventory Was Slowly Reduced - In May, the price of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly. The production of 300 - series stainless steel decreased for two consecutive months, and the net export scale in April decreased slightly. The downstream demand had no obvious increment. As of May 30th, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons compared with the end of April, but the inventory - reduction strength was less than the production - reduction strength, reflecting weak consumption [31]. 3.3.6 Limited Growth in the Power Sector, and the Industrial Track May Shift - From January to April, the cumulative sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 4.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 46.26%. From May 1st to 25th, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger - vehicle market were 726,000, a year - on - year increase of 31%, but the growth rate was lower than the nearly 40% growth rate at the beginning of the year. The new - energy vehicle sales in May were generally stable, but the consumption increment momentum weakened [34]. - In the later stage, the sales increment of new - energy vehicles in the third quarter may be weak. The new - energy consumption policy is gradually shifting to new - energy heavy - duty trucks, ships and other transportation fields, which may partially fill the demand gap caused by the weakening of passenger - vehicle consumption [34]. 3.3.7 Supply Contraction Dragged Down Inventory Reduction - As of May 30, 2025, the domestic refined - nickel social inventory was about 41,553 tons, a decrease of 3,048 tons compared with the end of April; the SHFE inventory was 22,299 tons, a decrease of 2,009 tons compared with the end of April; the LME nickel inventory was 201,462 tons, an increase of 144 tons compared with the end of April. The supply reduction was slightly greater than the inventory - reduction amount, and the demand side was relatively weaker. In June, the domestic supply is expected to further contract, but the export window remains open, and the fundamentals may continue the pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot inventory may continue to be reduced due to the supply contraction [36]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, and the supply may remain at a high level [40]. - Demand: Steel - enterprise production control may suppress the production scale of stainless steel, and the expectation of rushing to export has not been fulfilled. The production schedule of ternary materials is expected to be stable [40]. - Cost: Although the nickel - ore approval quota in Indonesia has increased, the shortage situation has not been alleviated, and the ore price remains high [40]. - Macro: Tariff risks remain, but the "TACO" trading may quickly correct the situation [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The alumina market is in a stand - off between bulls and bears. With unstable bauxite policies in Guinea and reduced shipments during the rainy season, the expected decrease in imported ore and firm ore prices support alumina costs. However, the recovery of alumina enterprise profits has led to high复产 willingness, and nearly one million tons of production capacity is planned to resume production at the end of May. After reaching full production in June, the favorable supply - demand pattern may be broken, putting pressure on prices. Alumina is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 3000 mark [3][64]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply - side capacity is approaching the ceiling and is expected to remain stable. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased since May, potentially reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. On the consumption side, the photovoltaic rush - installation has ended, and subsequent photovoltaic consumption lacks momentum. The automotive sector will enter a seasonal off - season in summer, and the real estate sector remains weakly stable. However, supported by orders from UHV and power transmission projects and distribution network agreement inventories, the cable sector is expected to maintain growth. The overall aluminum market supply and demand are expected to be weak, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][65]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures rose in May and then slightly declined. At the beginning of the month, due to increased losses in alumina production capacity, expanded maintenance, and a shortage of spot supply, the price rebounded from a low of 2664 yuan/ton but was blocked around 3000 yuan/ton. Later, concerns about ore shortages pushed the price up to 3274 yuan/ton, but at the end of the month, the expected resumption of production led to a price decline, closing at 2962 yuan/ton, up 8.54%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure [9]. - Shanghai aluminum futures fell below 19500 yuan/ton at the beginning of May and then rebounded to above 20000 yuan/ton. Due to the lack of further positive factors, the price fluctuated narrowly above 20000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, closing at 20070 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. LME aluminum fluctuated after a brief decline, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.02 and 8.22, with an import loss of around 1000 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas - Trade tensions eased in May. After the China - US Geneva economic and trade talks, both sides agreed to adjust tariffs. The EU - US trade negotiations made progress, and the suspension of the "Liberation Day" tariff policy reduced concerns about the trade war. The Fed maintained the plan to reduce "balance - sheet reduction" [12]. - In terms of employment and inflation, the US added 139,000 non - farm jobs in May, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. The core PCE inflation in April was in line with expectations. Economic data showed a slowdown in personal consumption growth, a decline in durable goods orders, and a contraction in the manufacturing PMI [13]. - In Europe, the economic sentiment and confidence indices mostly rebounded, GDP was slightly revised down, PPI declined in March, retail sales slowed down, and the PMI was revised up. The EU - US trade negotiation window was extended, and ECB officials supported interest rate cuts [14][16]. Domestic - China's economic data in April showed resilience. Industrial added value, social consumption, and fixed - asset investment maintained growth. The manufacturing PMI was 49.5% in May, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%. In terms of prices, CPI declined by 0.1% year - on - year in April, and PPI declined by 2.7% year - on - year. LPR and deposit rates were cut, with a larger cut in deposit rates [17]. 3. Alumina Market Analysis Bauxite - In May, domestic bauxite production tightened due to rainfall, safety drills, and environmental inspections. Bauxite prices remained stable. Imported bauxite reached record - high import volumes from January to April, but the situation in Guinea is unstable, and with the rainy season approaching, imported ore supply may decline. Domestic and imported bauxite supply is expected to be tight, and prices are expected to rise steadily [22][23]. Alumina Supply - In April 2025, China's alumina production was 719.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.46%. Supply was restricted in April due to maintenance and production cuts. As of May 27, the built - in production capacity was 112.2 million tons, the operating capacity was 85.65 million tons, and the operating rate was 76.34%. In May, new northern production capacity started output. In terms of imports and exports, exports were high in April but are expected to decrease in May, while imports are expected to increase [24][26]. Alumina Inventory and Spot - As of the end of May, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 127,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The exchange factory warehouse inventory was 1500 tons, also a decrease. The alumina spot premium was strong at the beginning and end of May and turned to a discount in the middle [27]. Alumina Cost and Profit - In April 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of the alumina industry was 3103.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106.41 yuan/ton from March. Raw material prices such as bauxite, caustic soda, and thermal coal declined, leading to a reduction in costs [28]. Alumina View - The alumina market is in a stand - off between bulls and bears. The unstable bauxite policy in Guinea and the rainy season support costs, but the high willingness of enterprises to resume production may break the favorable supply - demand pattern, and the price will continue to fluctuate around 3000 [29]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In April 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.6137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.64%. In May, capacity transfer, resumption, and new production continued, and the operating capacity increased slightly. Global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production decreased in April, and it is expected to be 2.405 million tons in May. In terms of imports and exports, imports increased in April, and exports also increased significantly [34][37]. Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - As of the end of May, the aluminum ingot inventory was 511,000 tons, the aluminum rod inventory was 128,300 tons, and the total social inventory decreased from the previous month. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory and LME inventory also decreased [38]. Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - The spot premium of electrolytic aluminum gradually increased in April, and the LME premium converged [39]. Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In May, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,535.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 86.46 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3604.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 136.82 yuan/ton from the previous month [40]. 5. Consumption Analysis Aluminum Processing - The aluminum processing industry entered the off - season in May, with weak terminal demand and limited new orders. Different sectors had different performances, with the cable sector maintaining growth. In June, production enthusiasm may be further suppressed [57]. Domestic Terminal Consumption - In the real estate sector, investment, new construction, and completion all declined in the first four months of 2025. In the new energy vehicle sector, sales continued to grow in April, but overseas trade protectionism may impact exports. In the power sector, grid investment increased in the first four months of 2025, and the aluminum cable industry is expected to maintain growth. In the photovoltaic sector, the installed capacity increased significantly in April, but subsequent consumption may lack momentum [58][60]. Aluminum Exports - In April 2025, China exported 520,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a year - on - year flat and a month - on - month increase of 1.9%. From January to April, cumulative exports decreased by 5.7% year - on - year. The relaxation of tariff tensions in May is beneficial for exports, but the previous "rush - export" may limit subsequent growth [61]. 6. Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas instability factors increase, while China's economy shows resilience, but external challenges also exist. For alumina, the market will continue to see a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and the price will fluctuate around 3000. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is approaching the ceiling, and the overall supply - demand is expected to be weak, with the price continuing to fluctuate within a range [64][65].