Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 141 to close at 4,316 ringgit/ton, a 3.38% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 282 to close at 8,964 yuan/ton, a 3.25% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 174 to close at 8,160 yuan/ton, a 2.18% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 147 to close at 9,586 yuan/ton, a 1.56% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 2.01 to close at 55.58 cents/pound, a 3.75% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 15.9 to close at 698.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a 2.33% increase [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. In the biodiesel sector, Indonesia's B40 policy is being gradually implemented, and its domestic B50 plan is in the testing and research phase, expected to be fully implemented in January 2026, leading to high bullish sentiment among funds and a significant increase in palm oil prices. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy will exacerbate the tight supply expectation of US soybean oil, resulting in a relatively obvious increase, and the domestic market is driven by this, with soybean oil performing stronger than rapeseed oil [3][6]. - Macroscopically, the US retail and employment data are strong, the inflation data are generally moderate, the impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected, the expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has cooled, and the US dollar closed higher at a weekly low. In China, the policy expectation of eliminating backward production capacity boosts the bullish atmosphere, and commodity prices have generally increased. Fundamentally, it is currently the production - increasing season, with both supply and demand increasing. Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented, increasing the demand for biodiesel, and the upcoming B50 policy will exacerbate the tight supply - demand pattern. The US's unexpected biodiesel target will also exacerbate the tight supply pattern of domestic soybean oil. Overall, palm oil may fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the price data of various oil and fat contracts on July 18 and July 11, including the CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, etc., as well as their price changes and percentage changes [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector fluctuated and rose last week, with palm oil being the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil having the smallest increase. The implementation of Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B40 and the upcoming B50) and the US biodiesel policy are the main factors driving the price increases [6]. - From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06%, but its export volume decreased according to different survey agencies. The export tax of Malaysian palm oil in August will increase from 8.5% in July to 9% [7][8]. - As of July 16, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters. India's palm oil import volume in June increased by 60% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 9.8% and sunflower oil imports increased by 17.8% [8]. Industry News - Indonesia expects its palm oil tax revenue this year to reach 30 trillion Indonesian rupiah (about $1.84 billion), and plans to replant 50,000 hectares of palm plantations this year, lower than the target of 180,000 hectares [11]. - According to a report, global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025, reaching $1,200/ton, due to supply tightening in Indonesia and Malaysia and increased global demand driven by biodiesel policies [11]. - AI is being used in the Malaysian palm oil industry, improving the oil extraction rate by 0.1%, increasing the normal operation time of the factory by 5 - 10%, and reducing the dependence on manual labor by 45% [12]. - India aims to increase its domestic crude palm oil production from 350,000 tons to 2.3 million tons by 2029 and expand the planting area from 600,000 hectares to 1 million hectares next year [12]. - UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that Malaysia's palm oil exports may increase in July, production is expected to increase, and inventory may remain stable [13]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [14][39][42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation is neutrally positive, while there are more negative factors in the fundamentals. The impact of tariffs on battery exports is uncertain, consumption improvement is limited, and inventory has increased, putting pressure on lead prices. However, after the decline in lead prices, cost - side support emerges, and the elimination of backward production capacity by high - quality domestic supply is expected to improve the oversupply situation in the lead market. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes and consumption improvement [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,075 yuan/ton to 16,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,017 dollars/ton to 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.47 to 8.36; the SHFE inventory increased from 55,149 tons to 62,335 tons, an increase of 7,186 tons; the LME inventory rose from 249,375 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 19,025 tons; the social inventory increased from 63,400 tons to 69,000 tons, an increase of 5,600 tons; the spot premium increased from - 225 yuan/ton to - 195 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2508 fluctuated and declined, with both domestic and foreign inventories rising simultaneously. The increase in tariffs on Chinese battery exports by Middle - Eastern countries dragged down the demand outlook. The lead price broke below the 17,000 - yuan mark and ended at 16,820 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.49%. On Friday night, it opened and closed higher. The strengthening of the US dollar and the significant increase in LME inventory dragged down the LME lead price, which continued to decline from 2,050 dollars/ton and then stabilized and rebounded on Thursday and Friday, finally closing at 2,011.5 dollars/ton, a weekly decline of 0.27%. In the spot market, on July 18th, the lead prices in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2508 contract. Some smelting enterprises held firm on prices due to inventory reduction, and the price difference between the north and the south narrowed. The downstream demand was more inclined to the primary lead market [5] Industry News - As of July 11th, the weekly processing fee for domestic lead concentrates was reported at 500 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton compared to the previous week; the weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrates was - 50 dollars/dry ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. In mid - August 2024, the Technical Secretariat for International Trade Anti - Damage Actions of the GCC announced an anti - dumping investigation into lead - acid batteries originating from or imported from China or Malaysia. According to the latest news, Middle - Eastern countries will impose different levels of tariffs on relevant Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises, with tariff ranges of 25 - 40%, 50 - 65%, and 55 - 70%, and 40 - 65% for other cooperative Chinese enterprises [8] Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts including SHFE and LME lead prices, the Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary lead and recycled refined lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead production, recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][13]

铝周报 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 7 月 21 日 消息主导 铝价偏强运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 王工建 一、交易数据 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周美国CPI数据略有上行，但核心通胀水平依然温 和，市场对美联储降息预期谨慎，但仍保留了两次降 息预期次数。其后美国首申及零售数据保持韧性，令 美指周内连续反弹。国内工信部周末称对有色、钢铁 等重要十大行业优化产业结构，淘汰落后产能。基本 面，供应端贵州电解铝产能继续复产， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound due to the continuous boost of the anti - involution policy. The photovoltaic mid - and downstream sectors have entered a collective production cut rhythm, and the release rate of new upstream silicon material production capacity has significantly slowed down. The supply side is in a state of passive contraction, while the demand side is weak, and the industrial silicon spot price shows an oscillating upward trend. Technically, the futures price is expected to continue the oscillating upward trend in the short term [2][6][10] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - From July 11th to July 18th, the industrial silicon主力 contract price rose from 8415.00 yuan/ton to 8695.00 yuan/ton, with a increase of 3.33%. The prices of various spot grades also generally increased, except for the unchanged price of polysilicon dense material. The industrial silicon social inventory decreased from 55.1 tons to 54.7 tons, a decrease of 0.73% [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.1%. In the first half of the year, China's goods trade export volume reached 13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Exports to emerging markets grew rapidly, and high - tech product exports increased by 9.2% [7] - **Supply - side**: As of July 18th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 73,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas was 235, and the overall open furnace rate slightly rose to 29.8%. The open furnace rate in Xinjiang has dropped below 50%, and the increase in the open furnace rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season is limited. The production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is under pressure [7][8][10] - **Demand - side**: Polysilicon prices continue to rise due to cost increases, but there are no new orders for high - priced products. Silicon wafer companies have large differences in quotes, and high - level transactions are limited. Photovoltaic cells have the motivation to increase prices, but the overall increase in TOPCON cells is small. The component market has low terminal acceptance, and the demand for distributed projects has shrunk significantly in early Q3. Under the implementation of the anti - involution policy, the demand in the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a downward cycle [2][6][8] - **Inventory - aspect**: As of July 18th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,400 lots, equivalent to 252,000 tons. After the new regulations on delivery standards were introduced, the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened [9] Industry News - On July 9th, the General Administration of Market Supervision and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on promoting the development of new energy through metrology from 2025 - 2030, including research and application demonstrations of key common metrology technologies in multiple new energy fields [11] - Driven by policies, there has been a boom in photovoltaic installations in Zhejiang Province this year. In the first half of the year, the new installed capacity was 12.2 million kilowatts. On July 3rd, the maximum photovoltaic output in the province reached 37.61 million kilowatts, a record high. The province is also accelerating the construction of supporting facilities and exploring "photovoltaic +" scenarios [12] Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production of main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products [14][15][16][17][18][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first declined and then rebounded. Macroscopically, the moderate rebound of inflation and the better - than - expected retail data in the US highlighted economic resilience. Domestically, the good performance of H1 GDP was offset by concerns about insufficient policy stimulus in H2. The statement of optimizing supply by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18th ignited market enthusiasm [3][4][11]. - Fundamentally, domestic refinery production increased, with stable operation of new projects, slowdown in processing fee growth, good refinery profits, and sufficient raw materials. The supply was on the rise. The zinc market remained stronger overseas than in China, and imports were difficult to increase. In the demand side, it was the off - season for consumption, and the actual demand was weak. The galvanized plate consumption confidence was boosted, but the actual order increment was limited. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide were weak. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, and the spot premium further declined, while the inventory accumulation slowed down [4]. - Overall, the domestic and foreign macro - environment was moderately positive, and the fundamentals were weak. The market hoped that the supply optimization could improve the surplus situation of the zinc market. In the short term, the zinc price was mainly influenced by macro and policy expectations, and the futures price was expected to continue to fluctuate strongly. However, it was still unclear how the supply optimization policy would affect the zinc industry chain, so caution was needed when chasing up the price [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - SHFE zinc decreased from 22380 yuan/ton on July 11th to 22295 yuan/ton on July 18th, a decline of 85 yuan/ton. LME zinc increased from 2738 dollars/ton to 2824 dollars/ton, an increase of 86 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased from 8.17 to 7.89, a decline of 0.28. The SHFE inventory increased by 4649 tons to 54630 tons, the LME inventory increased by 13850 tons to 119100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.33 million tons to 9.35 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 60 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of SHFE zinc ZN2509 first declined and then rebounded. Supported by the domestic anti - involution sentiment, the black - series prices rose, which was beneficial to the zinc price. It found support around 22000 yuan/ton and then rebounded slightly, closing at 22295 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.38%. The LME zinc price stabilized and rebounded, closing at 2824 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream procurement motivation weakened, and the spot premium continued to decline. The zinc prices and premiums varied in different regions such as Shanghai, Ningbo, Guangdong, and Tianjin [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of July 18th, the LME zinc inventory was 119100 tons, an increase of 13850 tons from last week. The SHFE inventory was 54630 tons, an increase of 4649 tons. As of July 17th, the social inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 0.33 million tons from July 10th. The inventory in Guangdong and Tianjin increased significantly, while that in Shanghai decreased slightly [8]. - In the macro - aspect, in the US, the CPI in June increased moderately, the core CPI was lower than expected, the PPI reached a new low, and the retail sales exceeded expectations. There were also various international trade and policy news, such as Trump's tariff - related statements and trade negotiations among countries. In China, the H1 GDP was 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries were about to be introduced [8][9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - As of July 18th, the average weekly TC of domestic Zn50 remained flat at 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 7.27 dollars/dry ton to 73.75 dollars/dry ton. Excellon Resources was preparing to restart the production of the Mallay silver - lead - zinc mine in Peru next year, which had produced 6 million ounces of silver, 45 million pounds of zinc, and 35 million pounds of lead from 2012 to 2018 [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, the spot premium, the LME premium, the inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, the processing fees of domestic and foreign zinc mines, the import profit and loss of zinc mines, the domestic refined zinc production, the smelter profit, the net import of refined zinc, and the operating rates of downstream primary enterprises [14][16][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was required to halt production, and there was an issue with the compliance of lithium mine approvals in Yichun. Driven by the rebound in lithium prices, the prices of spodumene concentrate and mica increased. Although production in July increased month - on - month, downstream acceptance of high - priced lithium was poor, and the growth rate of terminal automobile consumption slowed, maintaining a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [3]. - On the trading floor: Driven by supply disruptions, the price of lithium carbonate started its second round of increase, with significant increases in positions and trading volume during the week, and strong market sentiment [3]. - Future outlook: Despite the weak fundamentals, the resource disruption events remain unresolved, which will boost the trading floor sentiment in the short term. The game between supply disruptions and weak reality may lead to wide - range price fluctuations. The supply of lithium salts will further increase, while downstream material factories' willingness to stockpile actively is poor, and the demand intensity is limited. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern continues, but the short - term price may still be strong [3][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - The prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported lithium concentrate, and domestic lithium concentrate all increased, with the import of 1.3% - 2.2% lithium raw ore rising by 8.85% and the import of 5.5% - 6% lithium concentrate rising by 2.00% [4]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate spot increased by 8.84%, while the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot decreased by 100% [4]. - The price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 11.06%, and the inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 0.80% [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook 3.2.1 Last Week's Market Analysis - **Regulation and delivery**: As of July 18, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,239 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,580 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 377,300 lots [6]. - **Supply side**: As of July 18, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 18,313 tons, an increase of 155 tons from the previous period. Zangge Lithium stopped production due to compliance issues, and 8 mines in Yichun had approval compliance problems. The enthusiasm for resuming production in lithium salt factories was high [6]. - **Import aspect**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. The import volume of lithium ore in May was about 605,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% [7][8]. - **Demand aspect**: - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of July 18, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The prices of cathode materials increased driven by the rebound of lithium carbonate [9]. - **New energy vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market were 332,000, a year - on - year increase of 26% but a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The growth rate of new energy vehicle consumption slowed down. There were also relevant policies and technological developments [10]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of July 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,990 tons, with factory inventory decreasing and market inventory increasing. The downstream replenishment sentiment was strong, and there may be an inflection point for inventory reduction [11]. 3.2.2 This Week's Outlook - Supply disruptions are frequent, and lithium prices are strong. Although the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged, the resource disruption events are unresolved, and the short - term price may still be strong, with wide - range fluctuations [12]. 3.3 Industry News - Zangge Mining's subsidiary Zangge Lithium was ordered to stop lithium resource development due to incomplete mining procedures [13]. - Lanxiao Technology's first 3,300 - ton lithium hydroxide production line in Tibet is undergoing on - site testing and commissioning [13]. - Anhui Shihao's project of an annual production of 2GWh lithium - ion power and energy - storage battery factory entered the pre - approval publicity stage [13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrate, and cathode materials [15][17][20][24][26].

铁矿周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 铁水环比增加 铁矿延续上涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3147 | 9 | 0.29 | 8063884 | 3107454 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 33 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Macro Aspect**: The US economic growth maintains a slight increase, with some areas seeing rising prices. Fed officials' hawkish remarks suggest maintaining a moderately restrictive monetary policy. The impact of tariffs on prices is not obvious yet, and the US dollar index rebounds from a low level. The short - term disturbance may come from the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policy, and the macro is about to enter a data - silent period [3]. - **Fundamental Aspect**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, with prices in the Philippines and Indonesia showing signs of weakening. Nickel - iron prices are under continuous pressure, and stainless - steel mills have low production schedules. The nickel sulfate market has improved, but the transaction has not fully recovered. Pure nickel shows no significant change in premium and discount. The inventory is accumulating again, and there is no obvious improvement expectation in the fundamentals [3]. - **Future Outlook**: There is no improvement expectation in the industry. Although the trading in the nickel sulfate market has recovered, the sales growth of new - energy vehicles is weak. Stainless - steel prices have rebounded, but steel production is still shrinking. Supply has recovered, but export profits have shrunk, making it difficult to drive upstream production increase. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate under macro - level disturbances [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Nickel Prices**: SHFE nickel decreased from 121,100 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton; LME nickel increased from 15,064 dollars/ton to 15,218 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 264 tons to 21,560 tons. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 1,662 tons to 229,136 tons [4][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,050 yuan/ton, while the premium of Russian nickel remained unchanged at 550 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore has eased, and Indonesia has lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore in the second phase of July. The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia show signs of weakening [3][5]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased from 903.5 yuan/nickel point to 900 yuan/nickel point. The production of nickel - iron in China and Indonesia shows different trends. Stainless - steel mills have low production schedules, and the demand for nickel - iron is limited. However, due to cost - price inversion, some factories have reduced production or switched to high - grade nickel matte production, and the price may bottom out soon [6]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly from 27,420 yuan/ton to 27,230 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. The production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, while the production of ternary materials increased. The spot market has improved, but the actual demand is not strong enough to drive price reversal [7]. 3. Terminal Consumption - **New - Energy Vehicles**: From July 1 - 13, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 332,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month decrease of 4%. The annual cumulative sales growth rate is gradually declining. There are also some policies to support the new - energy vehicle industry, such as standards for battery replacement and subsidy policies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel has rebounded under policy drive, but steel mills' production schedules are still in a contraction phase, and the strong consumption expectation has not been fulfilled [3][11]. 4. Industry News - **Indonesia's Nickel Ore Policy**: Indonesia announced the second - phase nickel ore domestic benchmark price in July, which decreased by about 0.11% compared with the first - phase price. The RKAB approval mechanism will return to annual approval next year [12]. - **Company Operations**: PT GAG Nikel in West Papua has not been allowed to resume operations [12]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US will impose a 19% tariff on all imported Indonesian goods, and Indonesia will purchase US energy, agricultural products, and Boeing aircraft [12]. 5. Related Charts - Charts show the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premium and discount, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [14][16].

铜周报 鸽派立场渐浓，铜价止跌反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价企稳反弹，主因满足COMEX关税截止日期前的套 利窗口正在关闭致使部分货源回流LME，造成美铜溢价估 值向下修复，6月美国CPI温和上行，关税影响并未完全显 现，目前美联储鹰鸽两派分歧加剧，鹰派官员认为需要紧 缩的货币政策来遏制通胀升温的势头，而仍有部分官员认 为今年仍应降息两次，虽然全球贸易局势干扰加剧，但降 息预期的升温令资本市场风险偏好回升。基本面来看，海 外矿端紧缺事实不变，LME库存持续回升，海外精铜供应 逐渐趋松，主流矿企二季报已增产为主，国内社会库存小 幅增加，近月B结构转向平水。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 ⚫ 整体来看，因美联储内部鹰鸽两派分歧较大令9月降息扑 朔迷 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 避险情绪升温，金银预计偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 贵金属周报 一、上周交易数据 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周国际金价呈震荡走势，而银价则在创历史新高之后出 现回落。美国与其他贸易国的谈判仍存在风险，且美联储 主席易主的传闻愈演愈烈，市场担忧美联储货币政策突然 转向的风险，但美国经济数据保持韧性，美元指数持续反 弹对贵金属价格形成压制。银价在创出39.57美 ...