04 流动性 基金销售费率新规落地 国债月报 2025/01/04 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 经济及政策：12月PMI数据显示，供需两端均有所回暖，制造业重回扩张区间。分项上，需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业企业生产 活动较好扩张，内外需均有回升，但内需修复持续性有赖居民收入，需求端仍需政策支持。出口方面，11月出口数据强于预期，对美出口回 落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。中央经济工作会议强调继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，明年降准降息预期仍存。海外方面，12月美联储降 息落地且开始购买短债，流动性紧张现象有望缓解。 1、中国12月官方制造业PMI为50.1，预期49.2，前值49.2，9个月以来首次重返荣枯线上方；非制造业PMI为50.2，预期49.6，前值49. ...

Report Title - PX and PTA Strong Expectations Repair Profits, Ethylene Glycol Oscillates at the Bottom under Weak Fundamentals - Polyester Monthly Report 2026/01/04 [1] Core Views - PX prices rebounded significantly last month, with a high load and expected slight inventory accumulation before the maintenance season. The valuation has increased substantially, and there is potential for mid - term long positions [11]. - PTA prices rose sharply last month. The processing fee rebounded significantly, but it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage after short - term destocking. There is room for valuation increase in the future, and attention should be paid to mid - term long - position opportunities [12]. - MEG prices fell and then rebounded last month. Under weak fundamentals, the inventory is accumulating, and the valuation is at a relatively low level. If there is no further domestic production reduction, the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [13]. Summary of Each Section 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: The price rebounded last month. As of December 30, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7358 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 500 yuan. The supply load remained high, and imports increased in the first and middle of December. The demand side, PTA load decreased, and inventory is expected to accumulate slightly. The PXN increased by 74 dollars to 357 dollars, and the valuation strengthened. In the short - term, pay attention to the callback risk, and in the medium - term, look for long - position opportunities on dips [11]. - **PTA**: The price rose last month. As of December 30, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5152 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 400 yuan. The supply load decreased, and the demand side of polyester is entering the off - season. The inventory is expected to enter the accumulation cycle. The spot and futures processing fees increased significantly. In the short - term, it may enter the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and in the medium - term, look for long - position opportunities [12]. - **MEG**: The price fell and then rebounded last month. As of December 30, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3846 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 132 yuan. The supply load was high, and imports are expected to increase. The demand side of polyester is in the off - season. The inventory is accumulating at ports. The valuation is at a relatively low level, and in the medium - term, the valuation may need to be compressed without further production reduction [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: The basis weakened oscillatingly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and the trading volume was strong [33][37]. - **PTA**: The basis oscillated, and the spread increased. Both the position and trading volume increased [40][43]. - **MEG**: The basis was weak, and the spread oscillated weakly. The position decreased [52][59]. 3. PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacities include FJDH (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, HJAM with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and YTYLD with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: The domestic load at the end of the month was 88.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 79.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The maintenance volume in December was still small, and it is expected to remain stable in January [11]. - **Imports**: In November, imports decreased slightly. In the first and middle of December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 283,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8,000 tons [11][83]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN rebounded significantly, short - process profits were at a high level, and the naphtha crack spread oscillated [93]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, octane value decreased, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread declined, and the relative value of blending oil weakened [100][106][108]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III) added 2.5 million tons in June, Hailun Petrochemical 3 added 3.2 million tons in August, and Dushan Energy 4 added 3 million tons in October. In 2026, India Oil will add 1.2 million tons in H2, and GAIL will add 1.25 million tons in the first quarter [125]. - **Production and Operation Rate**: The load at the end of the month was 72.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%. There were more maintenance devices in December, and it is expected to remain stable in January [12]. - **Exports**: Exports rebounded significantly in November, mainly due to the increase in exports to India [130]. - **Inventory**: There was a phased destocking. As of December 26, the overall social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 117,000 tons [12][133]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee rebounded significantly. The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan to 345 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee increased by 127 yuan to 345 yuan/ton [12][136]. 5. MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Zhengdakai Phase I added 600,000 tons in May, Yulong Petrochemical 1 added 800,000 tons in September, and Yichang added 200,000 tons in December. In 2026, BASF will add 800,000 tons in January, Tianying will add 50,000 tons in September, HJAM will add 350,000 tons in October, and Zhongsha Gulei will add 1 million tons in December [140]. - **Supply**: The overall load remained at a high level. At the end of the month, the EG load was 73.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% [13][143]. - **Imports**: Imports decreased in November [145]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory is accumulating, and upstream and downstream inventories are at a high level [13]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices stabilized. The valuation of profits was at a relatively low level [164][167]. 6. Polyester and End - Users - **Polyester New Capacity**: There were new bottle - chip device put into operation, such as Sanfangxiang adding 1.5 million tons of polyester bottle - chips in Q1 and May 2025, and Yizheng Chemical Fibre adding 500,000 tons in January 2025 [183][185]. - **Polyester Supply**: The start - up rate is gradually entering the off - season [189]. - **Polyester Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [196]. - **Polyester Profit**: Filament profits were low, and bottle - chip profits oscillated [206][208]. - **End - User Start - up**: The start - up rate is gradually declining [211]. - **End - User Orders and Inventory**: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory preparation was weak [219]. - **End - User Consumption**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing rebounded, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high [224][226].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oversupply pressure of nickel remains significant, but due to the Indonesian government's plan to impose taxes on cobalt elements, the market's bearish sentiment has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have emerged. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of SHFE nickel is expected to be between 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME 3M nickel contracts is expected to be between 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In December, nickel ore prices remained stable. In the Philippines, it was the rainy season, supply was low, domestic nickel - iron smelters had sufficient inventory, and procurement willingness was weak. In Indonesia, there was no clear news on RKAB approval progress, mines were cautious in shipping, and smelters' procurement demand was relatively weak, resulting in a cold market [12]. - **Nickel - iron**: In the supply side, nickel - iron plant profits were under pressure in December, and production scheduling decreased slightly. In the demand side, stainless - steel prices rose significantly due to macro - sentiment, steel mills' replenishment demand was released, and traders' inventory - building sentiment increased, so nickel - iron demand rebounded slightly. In general, with the rise of stainless - steel prices, the nickel - iron market became more active, and short - term prices may be strong [12]. - **Intermediate products**: This week, the coefficient of intermediate products remained high. Supply was high, but the market's tradable volume was insufficient. Demand for nickel sulfate weakened, and only some enterprises were preparing for raw material procurement in the first quarter of next year, resulting in a cold overall market. The current intermediate product market is more of a situation with prices but no transactions. As production increases, the coefficient price of intermediate products may decline [12]. - **Refined nickel**: In December, nickel rebounded from the bottom. On one hand, Indonesia announced that the nickel ore quota in 2026 would be tightened significantly and then proposed to tax cobalt and iron elements in nickel ore, which reignited market concerns about next year's nickel ore supply and exhausted short - selling power. On the other hand, the macro - environment was positive, and the non - ferrous metal sector was strong, enhancing the upward elasticity of nickel prices. In the spot market, overall transactions were still light, and premiums and discounts were stable [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price trends**: The report presents the price trends of nickel futures contracts [15]. - **Nickel spot premiums and discounts**: The report shows the premiums and discounts of domestic and LME nickel spot [18][19]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The report includes the prices of nickel - iron and the premium of nickel sulfate relative to nickel beans [22][23]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: It includes the export volume, port - departure statistics, import volume, port inventory, and prices in the Philippines and Indonesia [27][28][29][30][31][32]. - **Nickel - iron**: It shows the monthly production and production profits in Indonesia and China [33][34][35][36]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production in Indonesia, import volume in China, and prices and transaction coefficients [37][38][39][40][41][42]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In November 2025, the national refined nickel production was 28,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with October. The report also shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rates [45][46][47]. - **Demand**: It includes the monthly production and social inventory of domestic stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand and real - estate demand in the manufacturing industry [48][49][50][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit - and - loss of domestic refined nickel [52][53]. - **Inventory**: This week, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 1,435 tons to 311,421 tons. The report also shows the domestic and LME regional inventories [54][55][56]. - **Cost**: It presents the production cost by raw materials and the production profit rate by processes [57][58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of nickel sulfate in China [60][61][62]. - **Demand**: It includes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China [63][64][65]. - **Cost and price**: It presents the production cost and price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, as well as the production profit rate of main raw materials [66][67][68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The report shows the supply - demand balance of nickel from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, including the production, consumption, supply - demand gap, and visible inventory of various nickel products in different regions [70][71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In December, lead prices fluctuated and rebounded. The domestic lead price is near the upper edge of the oscillation range, with high concentration of long - position funds. As the feverish sentiment in precious metals fades, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In December, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.52% to 17,355 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 0.92 million lots to 8.61 million lots. The LME 3M lead contract rose 0.98% to $2,005.5/ton, and the total position increased by 0.97 million lots to 17.86 million lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of 125 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. Domestic social inventory remained flat at 17,400 tons. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrate in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.5% and a month - on - month change of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.2% [15]. - **Production**: In November 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 136,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.8% and a month - on - month change of - 6.6%. From January to November, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,531,900 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November, the net import of lead - containing ore was 120,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 5.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,423,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.4% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 256,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 3.1%. From January to November, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,955,400 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9%. In September 2025, the global lead ore production was 392,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.1% and a month - on - month change of 2.4%. From January to September, the total production of lead ore was 3,402,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 54,000 tons, and factory inventory was 478,000 tons, equivalent to 32.5 days [21]. - **Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate import TC was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary start - up rate was 67.11%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's primary lead production was 327,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.6% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to November, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,514,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.8% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, lead scrap inventory was 89,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 38,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In November 2025, China's recycled lead production was 373,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 16.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.8%. From January to November, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,608,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.0% [33]. - **Lead Ingot Trade and Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 262.0% and a month - on - month change of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 32.4%. In November, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 9.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Lead - Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - battery start - up rate was 72.84%. In November 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.6% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16.1452 million units, and the net export weight was 84,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries increased by - 5.0% year - on - year [41]. - **Inventory Days**: In November 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - batteries in factories decreased from 24.5 days to 20.9 days, and the inventory days of lead - batteries in dealers decreased from 41.0 days to 40.7 days [43]. - **Terminal Demand**: - **Two - wheeled Vehicles**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles [47]. - **Automobiles**: The contribution of the automobile sector to lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand support the start - up rate of lead - acid start - up batteries [49]. - **Base Stations**: The rapid development of communication technology has led to an increase in the number of communication base stations and 5G base stations, driving a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [52]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Lead Ingot Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 70 tons, and the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference from January to November was a shortage of - 8,400 tons [60]. - **Overseas Lead Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 48,900 tons, and the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 1,700 tons [63]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis and Spread**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 95 yuan/ton, and the continuous - contract - to - first - continuous - contract spread was - 40 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 239,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrant was 76,800 tons. The outer - market cash - 3S contract basis was - $37.81/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $99.2/ton [68][70]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.231, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 447.26 yuan/ton [73]. - **Position Analysis**: The net - long concentration of the top 20 positions in Shanghai lead was high. The LME lead investment fund seats turned net - short, and the net - short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the position perspective, the short - term guidance is neutral [76].

累库进程放缓， PVC跟随情绪大幅反弹 PVC月报 2026/01/04 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 从业资格号：F03136381 徐绍祖（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2325元/吨，月同比下跌150元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，月同比下跌50元/吨；兰炭陕西中料820元/吨， 月同比下跌50元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润下滑至历史低位水平后有所修复，乙烯制利润回升，整体估值压力较小。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率77.2%，月同比下降3%；其中电石法78.5%，月同比下降5.1%；乙烯法74.3%，月同比上升1.9%。上月检修量上升，平均 产能利用率小幅下滑，供应压力有所减小。 ◆ 需求：出口方面，十一月出口量延续下滑，主要因为出口印度数量季节性下滑；三大下游开工季节性下滑，管材负荷36.2%，月同比下降 2.6 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market had long anticipated the reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang. Currently, the price of Zhengzhou cotton has reached a recent high, and the price volatility may increase. Fundamentally, the off - season is not slow, with a decent downstream operating rate. Despite domestic production increase, imports are restricted, and the supply - demand relationship is balanced. Coupled with positive expectations, the price trend of Zhengzhou cotton is strong. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December, the price of US cotton futures fluctuated within a narrow range. By December 31, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was 64.3 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.43 cents per pound or 0.66% from the previous month. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton was - 1.32 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous month. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly in December. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,585 yuan per ton, an increase of 900 yuan per ton or 6.58% from the previous month. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,556 yuan per ton, an increase of 660 yuan per ton from the previous month. The basis was 971 yuan per ton, a decrease of 240 yuan per ton from the previous month. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton was 70 yuan per ton, an increase of 30 yuan per ton from the previous month [9]. - **Industry Information**: In December 23, 2025, the Office of the Leading Group for the Development of the Cotton Industry in the Autonomous Region held a special meeting on reducing the cotton planting area in Xinjiang. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 10,000 tons year - on - year. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 900,000 tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of November in the 2025/26 season (from August to July of the following year), China's cotton imports were 880,000 tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons year - on - year. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week ending December 26, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.7%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous week, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 6.7 percentage points compared with the average of the past five years (71.4%). The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.17 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons year - on - year. The latest December monthly supply - demand report data released by USDA showed that the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season was revised down by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons compared with November. Among them, the production forecast for the United States was revised up by 30,000 tons to 3.11 million tons; the production forecast for Brazil remained at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India remained at 5.23 million tons; and the production forecast for China remained at 7.29 million tons [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Wait for a pullback and then go long [9][10][11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread, the spinning mill's immediate profit, and various spreads of US cotton and international cotton price spreads, but no specific text analysis of these trends is provided [24]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of cotton in China and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [38]. - **Cotton Import Volume**: Charts show China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton import volumes [40]. - **US Export Contract Quantity to China**: Charts show the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of the US to China [42]. - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: Charts show China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - **National Sales Progress**: Charts show the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: Charts show China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the monthly inventory of commercial + industrial cotton [52]. - **Spinning Mill's Raw Material and Finished - Product Inventory**: Charts show the cotton inventory and yarn inventory of spinning mills [54]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **US Planting Situation**: Charts show the proportion of the US cotton - planting area without drought, the cotton good - quality rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volumes of US cotton [58]. - **US Production and Planting Area**: Charts show the production forecast and planting area of US cotton [61]. - **US Export Contract Progress**: Charts show the cumulative and weekly export contract quantities of US cotton in the current year [65]. - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Charts show the annual cumulative and weekly export shipment volumes of US cotton [67]. - **US Supply and Demand Situation**: Charts show the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of US cotton [69]. - **Brazilian Production and Planting Area**: Charts show the planting area and production of Brazilian cotton [70]. - **Brazilian Export Volume**: Charts show the export volume of Brazilian cotton [73]. - **Brazilian Supply and Demand Situation**: Charts show the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [76]. - **Indian Production and Planting Area**: Charts show the planting area and production of Indian cotton [78]. - **Indian Consumption and Import - Export**: Charts show the consumption, import, and export volumes of Indian cotton, as well as the supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio [81].

糖价跌至低位， 短线估值反弹 白糖月报 2026/01/04 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 甘蔗生长周期和主要食糖生产国榨季起止 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，12月原糖价格偏弱震荡，截至12月31日ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报14.95美分/磅，较之前一月下跌0.26美分/磅，跌幅 1.71%；价差方面，原糖3-5月差报0.33美分/磅，较之前一月下跌0.18美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差报2.2美元/吨，较之前一月下跌3美元/吨； 3月合约原白价差报97美元/吨，较之前一月下跌3美元/吨。国内方面，12月郑糖价格先抑后扬，郑糖5月合约收盘价报5251元/吨，较之前一 月下跌76元/吨，跌幅1.43%。广西现货报5320元/吨，较之前一月下跌130元/吨；基差报69元/吨，较之前一月下跌54元/吨；1-5价差报13元 /吨，较之前一月下跌60元/吨；配 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Low prices stimulating consumption, the late Spring Festival causing demand to be postponed, and the structural shortage of large pigs jointly contributed to the unexpected rebound of pig prices. The logic for short - term pig price strength remains strong, but in the medium term, the logic supporting the current strong pig prices faces the risk of collapse. In the long term, the decline in production capacity will gradually be reflected in pig prices in the second half of the year [11][12]. - It is advisable to focus on the upper pressure of contracts close to the off - season and mainly short on rebounds. Pay attention to the lower support of far - month contracts [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market** - Last month, domestic pig prices were stronger than expected. Before the Winter Solstice, pig prices were extremely firm, and they rebounded significantly after the Winter Solstice. In January, the overall supply remains abundant, and demand may have less concentrated stocking. Prices are expected to be weak first, then stable, and rise at the end of the month [11][22]. - The average pig price in Henan increased by 1.34 yuan to 12.7 yuan/kg, with a monthly high of 13.2 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it rose by 1.5 yuan to 12.8 yuan/kg, with a monthly high of 12.8 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it increased by 1.7 yuan to 13.06 yuan/kg [11][22]. - **Supply Side** - In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million heads, a 1.1% month - on - month decline, still 2.3% more than the normal sow inventory. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a bearish supply situation this year and the first half of next year [11][33]. - The basic supply from now to May next year shows an increasing trend month by month. Before the Spring Festival this year, the pig market is still facing a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large body weight [11][41]. - In the short term, the market is still in a situation of large and excessive supply [11][48]. - **Demand Side** - After the pig price increase at the end of December, slaughtering enterprises generally reported that the terminal price increase was small, so they had a low acceptance of high - priced pigs and may reduce purchases and pressure prices, which has a negative impact on the market [11]. - **Trading Strategy** - For unilateral trading, short contracts 03 and 05, and long contracts 09 and 11, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 2 - 3 months, driven by factors such as sows, body weight, and consumer demand, and a two - star recommendation [13]. - For arbitrage, no strategy is currently recommended [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Trend** - Last month, pig prices rebounded unexpectedly. In January, prices may be weak first, then stable, and rise at the end of the month [22]. - The average pig prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong increased last month [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend** - The spot price rebounded, the basis of the futures market turned positive, and the monthly spread turned into a positive spread [25]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes** - The sow inventory in October was 39.9 million heads, a 1.1% month - on - month decline, still 2.3% more than the normal level. The policy - driven capacity reduction expectation is strong, and the progress of capacity reduction has accelerated recently [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter** - From the piglet data, the basic supply from now to April next year shows an increasing trend. Before the Spring Festival this year, the pig market faces a bearish configuration of high slaughter volume and large body weight [41]. - **Slaughter Size and Proportion** - The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is not high but slowly rising, indicating a slight increase in diseases but overall controllable. The proportion of large pigs is rising seasonally, indicating that large pigs from散户 are being gradually released [44]. - **Trading and Post - Slaughter Average Weight** - Around the Winter Solstice, the slaughter volume remained high, the frozen product inventory continued to rise, and the average trading weight of pigs decreased slightly, still larger than the same period last year. The short - term market supply is excessive [48]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume** - Some southern regions are still in the peak demand period, which will boost the pig market. In the Northeast, there is a second - fattening restocking behavior, increasing the pressure on pig procurement for slaughterers [57]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost is in a continuous downward state due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement. Although the cost is low, there has been an overall loss this year due to the weak pig prices in the same period over the years [68]. 3.6 Inventory Side - The frozen product inventory is in a state of slow recovery and active inventory accumulation [73].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In early 2026, geopolitical issues in Latin America resurfaced, potentially causing minor impacts on crude oil prices. The narrowing oscillation of crude oil prices in December 2025 is expected to continue. [15] - The US Energy Department released previously postponed data, showing a seasonal decline in refinery operations but still stronger than in previous periods, and a slight increase in Cushing inventories. Russian exports have recovered after falling from their peak in September. [15] - At the macro - political level, the final value of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, and the combination of a "strong economy + interest - rate cut cycle" continued. Politically, the US military raided and captured Maduro, but domestic oil and gas facilities were not damaged. In Yemen, conflicts between Saudi - and UAE - supported factions have raised concerns about their relationship, but it is unlikely to affect OPEC+ production coordination. [15] - Given that most of the inventory is at sea and concentrated in the Asia - Pacific region, the upward potential of oil prices due to geopolitical situations is limited. However, the valuations of heavy oil and asphalt will significantly benefit. It is recommended to go long on the cracking spreads of heavy oil and asphalt during the window when the sea - borne inventory is not fully released. [15][17] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Monthly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December 2025, crude oil prices showed a narrowing oscillation. At the beginning of 2026, geopolitical issues in Latin America flared up again, which may have a minor impact on crude oil prices. [15] - **Supply - Demand Changes**: US refinery operations declined seasonally but were still stronger than before, and Cushing inventories increased slightly. Russian exports recovered after the September peak. [15] - **Macro - Political Situation**: The US GDP in Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, and the "strong economy + interest - rate cut cycle" persisted. Geopolitical events included the capture of Maduro and conflicts in Yemen, but OPEC+ production coordination is expected to remain stable. [15] - **Viewpoint Summary**: Limited upward potential for oil prices due to sea - borne inventory, but heavy oil and asphalt valuations will benefit. Long heavy oil and asphalt cracking spreads during the inventory release window. [15][17] 3.2 Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: The report presents relationships between indicators such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread with WTI oil prices. [48] - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: It includes the euro - area investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, US GDP growth rate forecasts, and global major country GDP growth rate forecasts. [55][56] - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil - producing countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are shown, along with their relationships with WTI oil prices. [63] 3.3 Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: It shows the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI M1 price. [67] - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Spreads such as Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI are presented. [71][73] - **Product Spreads**: It includes the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined products, and spreads like RB/HO and LGO/RB. [79] - **Cracking Spreads**: Cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US are analyzed. [85][88][91] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC & OPEC+ Supply**: It details the results of OPEC's past meetings, the production and quota situations of OPEC and OPEC+ countries, and the supply and export forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries and major OPEC+ members. [97][99][103] - **US Supply**: The US government has made various policies regarding oil, such as budget cuts for the SPR, potential sanctions adjustments, and plans to increase local production. The report also shows data on US oil wells, rigs, production, and exports. [128][130][132] - **Other Supply**: It includes the production forecasts of countries like Canada, Norway, and Brazil, as well as China's crude oil production. [137] 3.5 Crude Oil Demand - **US Demand**: It covers direct demand from refineries (including crude oil input, refinery capacity utilization, and parking capacity) and imports/exports, as well as derived demand for gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, aviation kerosene, and refined product imports/exports. Micro - demand indicators such as bank car loans, railway traffic, and aviation security passenger flow are also presented. [144][147][150] - **Chinese Demand**: It includes direct demand (crude oil input, imports, and refinery operations) and derived demand for gasoline, diesel, and refined product exports. Micro - demand indicators such as new - energy vehicle penetration and population migration are also shown. [166][172][174] - **European Demand**: It includes direct demand from refineries (refinery operations, crude oil input, and profits) and imports, as well as derived demand for refined products. [185][187][190] - **Indian Demand**: It shows India's crude oil input, refinery operating rate, imports, and demand forecasts. [195] - **Other Demand**: It includes the average daily speeds of different types of oil tankers and oil - transportation quality models. [199][203] 3.6 Crude Oil Inventory - **US Inventory**: It includes commercial crude oil inventories, Cushing inventories, and inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene, as well as their available - days data. [209][211][213] - **Chinese Inventory**: It includes crude oil port inventories and inventories of gasoline and diesel, as well as their production - sales ratios. [218][221][224] - **European Inventory**: It includes ARA inventories and inventories of 16 European countries for various refined products and crude oil. [229][234][237] - **Singapore Inventory**: It shows inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined products. [241] - **Fujairah Inventory**: It includes inventories of gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined products at the port. [246] - **Maritime Inventory**: It includes floating storage of refined products (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and kerosene), heavy and light oils, and crude oil, as well as the relationship between VLCC and Suezmax floating storage and WTI oil prices. [251][255][259] 3.7 Meteorological Disasters - It presents storm models in the US Gulf of Mexico and the Middle - East straits, as well as wildfire probability models in Canada and rainstorm & thunderstorm data in the US Gulf of Mexico. [264][270] 3.8 Alternative Data - It includes data on crude oil maritime in - transit supply, oil - transportation demand models, shipping fees in the Arabian Sea, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked according to media polls, along with their relationships with WTI oil prices. [276]

产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力煤、 天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 供给持续收缩， 年末行情平淡 玻璃月报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2026/01/04 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 月度评估及策略推荐 月度要点小结 图1：玻璃期现价差（元/吨） 图2：玻璃主力合约基差（元/吨） 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：MYSTEEL、五矿期货研究中心 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 基差（右轴） 玻璃主力合约 华北5mm大板 -400 -200 0 200 ...