1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unexpectedly positive USDA report, both domestic and international cotton prices rebounded. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the US for 90 days is also favorable for domestic cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, recent downstream consumption has been average, with the operating rate remaining at a historically low level and the pace of cotton inventory reduction slowing down. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In the international market, the price of US cotton futures rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 67.48 cents per pound, up 0.84 cents per pound from the previous week, a increase of 1.26%. The December - March spread of US cotton weakened slightly, closing at - 1.55 cents per pound on Friday, down 0.12 cents per pound from the previous week. In the domestic market, the price of Zhengzhou cotton rose. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,120 yuan per ton, up 320 yuan per ton from the previous week, a increase of 2.32%. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,216 yuan per ton, up 38 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened significantly, closing at 1,163 yuan per ton on Friday, down 287 yuan per ton from the previous week. The January - May spread of Zhengzhou cotton weakened slightly, closing at 30 yuan per ton on Friday, down 20 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: As of the week ending August 15, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week; the weaving mill operating rate was 37%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly commercial cotton inventory was 1.86 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous week. According to the USDA's August supply - demand report, the global cotton production forecast for August was 25.39 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons from the July forecast. Among them, the US production forecast was lowered by 300,000 tons to 2.88 million tons due to a 15% reduction in the planted area compared to the July forecast; China's production forecast was raised by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons; the production forecasts for Brazil and India remained unchanged. The global consumption forecast was lowered by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory was lowered by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons. The US inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 6.12 percentage points to 26.28% [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: No trading strategy suggestions were provided [11]. 3.2 Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, domestic and international spreads, and US cotton spreads, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [26][28][30]. 3.3 Domestic Market Situation - **Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection volume and total processing volume of domestic cotton [39]. - **Imports**: Include the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton, the cumulative and weekly export contract volume of the US to China, and the monthly and annual cumulative import volume of domestic cotton yarn [41][43][45]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: Show the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills [47]. - **Sales Progress**: Include the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City [50]. - **Inventory**: Include the weekly commercial inventory of domestic cotton, the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory, and the raw material and finished - product inventories of spinning mills [53][55]. 3.4 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Show the net positions of CFTC funds and commercial entities [59]. - **US Situation**: Include the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the cotton good - to - excellent rate, the bi - weekly and cumulative processing volume, production and planted area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [61][63][70][72][73]. - **Brazil Situation**: Include the planted area, production, export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Brazilian cotton [75][78][80]. - **India Situation**: Include the planted area, production, consumption, import and export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - to - consumption ratio of Indian cotton [83][86][88].

Report Title - Aluminum Weekly Report: US Adjusts Aluminum Tariff Scope, Sentiment May Be Pressured [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The US-Russia leaders' talks were relatively smooth, but the US has expanded the scope of taxation on aluminum and steel derivatives, which may put pressure on sentiment. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the strong aluminum product export data still supports the aluminum price. However, the pressure comes from the weak downstream consumption and the volatile trade situation. In the short term, the aluminum price may experience a volatile correction. The reference range for the domestic main contract this week is 20,200 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME 3M aluminum is 2,520 - 2,640 US dollars/ton [13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [13] - **Inventory & Spot**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons. On Friday, the domestic aluminum ingot spot was at par with the futures, and the LME Cash/3M was at a premium of 1.8 US dollars/ton [13] - **Imports and Exports**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports has narrowed [13] - **Demand**: According to Aizhi Consulting's research, the weekly operating rates of aluminum products were differentiated. The operating rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, and aluminum alloys rebounded, while those of aluminum sheets, strips, aluminum rods, and aluminum foils declined. Currently, the improvement in downstream consumption is still not significant, and the spot trading is mediocre [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: Aluminum prices were volatile. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract rose 0.41% week-on-week (as of Friday's close), and LME 3M aluminum closed down 0.46% to 2,603 US dollars/ton [24] - **Term Spread**: The domestic aluminum ingot discount in major regions narrowed oscillatingly [31] - **Spot Basis**: The LME aluminum Cash/3M turned to a slight premium [41] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The aluminum smelting profit increased to 3,577 yuan/ton [46] - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 588,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 24,000 tons; the bonded area inventory decreased by 7,000 to 105,000 tons. The aluminum rod inventory was 139,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,000 tons, and the combined inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum ingots increased week-on-week. The LME inventory increased by 10,000 to 480,000 tons [49][52][55] 4. Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices were stable [60] - **Alumina Price**: Both domestic and overseas alumina prices decreased [65] - **Smelting Cost**: The anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price continued to rebound [70] 5. Supply Side - **Alumina**: In July, China's actual operating capacity of alumina continued to increase by 2%, with an operating rate of 81.6% and a year-on-year production increase of 5.4%. The overall supply was relatively sufficient [75] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 43.9 million tons. After the capacity replacement and commissioning, the industry's operating capacity increased slightly, with a production of 3.721 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity will remain at a high level, and the production may increase slightly or remain flat month-on-month [78] - **Aluminum Water Ratio**: The aluminum rod processing fee was oscillating. In July, the domestic aluminum water ratio decreased by 2.1 percentage points, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 9.3% year-on-year and increased by 11.9% month-on-month to about 976,000 tons. With the rebound of the aluminum rod processing fee, the aluminum water ratio is expected to rebound in August [81] 6. Demand Side - **Output and Outbound Volume**: In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods was expected to increase month-on-month, slightly better than the same period last year. In July, the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum sheets, strips, foils, primary aluminum alloy ingots, and recycled aluminum alloy ingots declined month-on-month. In June, the operating rate of aluminum rods dropped from a high level [86][90][92] - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in August 2025, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 1.144 million units, a 2.8% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 762,000 units, a 9.5% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 791,000 units, a 3.0% decrease. The demand expectation related to home appliances was weak. Currently, the real estate data was also weak, the automobile production and sales were fair, and the photovoltaic installation decreased significantly, and the related demand was also under pressure [100] 7. Imports and Exports - **Aluminum Ingot and Primary Aluminum**: In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 192,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 1.249 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Recently, the loss of domestic aluminum ingot spot imports has narrowed [103] - **Aluminum Products and Recycled Aluminum**: In July 2025, China exported 542,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, a month-on-month increase of over 50,000 tons. The cumulative export volume from January to July was 3.462 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. In June, the recycled aluminum imports were 156,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. The imports in the first six months were 1.012 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [108] - **Bauxite and Alumina**: In June 2025, China's bauxite imports were 18.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to June were 103.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In June 2025, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a month-on-month decrease of 17.7% and a year-on-year increase of 9.0%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to June were 1.34 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 65.7% [111]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiakeng lithium mine has ignited the bullish sentiment. As the peak season approaches in the second half of the year, the market expects a significant supply shortage of domestic lithium carbonate. The improvement of the lithium salt supply - demand pattern depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Recently, the supply side will be the focus of the market. The emotional fluctuations brought by news are significantly greater than the actual changes in the fundamentals. The rise in lithium prices will drive the supply of hard - rock resources in Africa, Australia and other places to fill the gap of domestic mines. The extent of domestic lithium carbonate destocking remains to be observed. Currently, the uncertainty of capital gaming is high. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously. Lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations. In the future, attention should be paid to the industrial chain information and market atmosphere [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Period - spot Market**: On August 15, the morning quotation of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 82,832 yuan, with a weekly increase of 18.62%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, with a weekly increase of 12.92% [12][20]. - **Supply**: On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In June, China imported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate from Chile, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [12][32][41]. - **Demand**: In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [12][48][57]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [12][64]. - **Cost**: The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month. The pressure on high - cost hard - rock mines overseas has eased [12][75]. 2. Period - spot Market - On August 15, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index quoted 82,832 yuan in the morning, up 18.62% week - on - week. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 83,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2511 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 86,900 yuan, up 12.92% week - on - week [20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 450 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract holdings has increased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,300 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 8,660 yuan [26][27]. 3. Supply Side - On August 14, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a 2.2% increase from the previous week. The output of lithium carbonate from spodumene reached a record high, the operating rate of salt - lake lithium carbonate rebounded, and the output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite declined. The output in August was slightly revised downwards. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous month and a 25.5% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.6% in the first seven months [32]. - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase from the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 73.8% in the first seven months. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite in July was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease from the previous month, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.0% in the first seven months [35]. - The output of salt - lake lithium carbonate in July decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 15.6% from January to July. Some salt - lake mines reduced production or stopped production, and the output of salt - lake lithium carbonate declined during the peak season. The output of recycled lithium carbonate in July increased by 9.8% to 6,380 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.4% from January to July [38]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. The total import of lithium carbonate in China from January to June was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In July 2025, the export volume of Chilean lithium carbonate was 20,900 tons, a 43% increase from the previous month and a 4% increase year - on - year. Among them, 13,600 tons were exported to China, a 33% increase from the previous month and a 13% decrease year - on - year [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportions and weak growth [45]. - In July 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were about 1.6 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.1% from January to July. In July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively. From January to July 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 39.2% and 38.5% respectively [48]. - The total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to June were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to the previous year. The total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States from January to June were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year [51]. - In July, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% increase from the previous month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production of power and other batteries in China was 831.1 GWh, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57.5%. The production of lithium iron phosphate in July increased by about 3.1% from the previous month. It is expected that the month - on - month increase in the output of cathode materials will be slightly larger in August [54][57]. 5. Inventory - On August 14, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons (- 0.1%) from the previous week. On August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 23,485 tons, a 24.7% increase from the previous week [64]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a recent low due to the rush for exports [67]. 6. Cost Side - The ore price adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 16, the quotation of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 960 - 1,020 US dollars per ton, a 26.1% increase from the previous week and an 18.5% increase in the past month [75]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease from the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines began to ease in July [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The lead market shows a situation of poor consumption and high finished - product inventory. The primary lead ore inventory remains tight with processing fees declining rapidly. The primary lead smelting profit is good, and the primary lead operating rate has increased again. The recycled lead raw materials are in short supply, and the recycled lead operating rate has slightly declined. The battery operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is weaker than that of the same period in previous years. The finished - product inventory of lead - acid batteries is at a historical high, and the terminal consumption pressure is large. The social inventory of lead ingots maintains a slow accumulation trend. The overall supply and demand of the industry are weak, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly operate weakly [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.43% at 16,849 yuan/ton with a total unilateral trading position of 99,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S rose 4 to $1,987.5/ton with a total position of 154,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,700 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton. **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - 80 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30% [11]. - **Industry Information**: Some smelting enterprises in Henan received a notice from relevant departments that the Ministry of Ecology and Environment is expected to launch air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3 according to air - quality conditions, which may restrict the transportation of some vehicles [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6% [15]. - **Production**: In July 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total lead concentrate production was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore production was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total lead ore production was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 32,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 401,000 tons, equivalent to 25.6 days [21]. - **Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 68.07%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 8,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Output**: At the recycled end, the recycled lead waste inventory was 74,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 35,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In July 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery operating rate was 67.30%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 18.2585 million pieces, and the net export weight of batteries was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 3.1% [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries of dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of lead ingots was a surplus of 0 tons [62]. - **Overseas Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [65]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 66,800 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 61,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton [70]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 261,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 57,600 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - $40.87/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $64.3/ton [73]. - **Cross - market Structure**: After exchange rate adjustment, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.18, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 579.41 yuan/ton [76]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead maintained a relatively high net short position. The net long position of investment funds in London Lead decreased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Zinc ore's visible inventory is decreasing marginally, but the TC of zinc concentrate is still on an upward trend. The production schedule of zinc smelting is expected to be high, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is rising rapidly. Downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, and the domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The registered zinc ingot warrants overseas have reached a new low since 2024, but the reduction rate has slowed down slightly, the monthly spread of LME zinc has decreased marginally, and the structural disturbances in the LME market are gradually subsiding. In the medium term, the scenario of industry oversupply remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.15% at 22,521 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 215,500 lots for unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S rose 18.5 to $2,835.5/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total open interest of 193,700 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,450 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -50 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -60 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis of -70 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $90/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 213,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Industry Information**: South American mining company Nexa Resources announced that its Cerro Pasco integrated mining area, which includes the Atacocha and El Porvenir mines, was partially shut down temporarily due to an illegal blockade by a small number of people from the San Juan de Milpo community. The mines involved have an annual zinc production of 63,000 - 74,000 metal tons and lead production of 34,000 - 39,000 metal tons, and the current production guidance remains unchanged [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of -32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of -13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, the zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 23.1% and a month - on - month change of 3%. From January to July, the total zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -17.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.5% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [39][41]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc has rebounded again. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, precious metal prices were relatively weak due to unexpected US inflation data. The market is closely watching Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If his remarks are dovish, it is recommended to go long on gold and silver at low prices. The expected trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: Affected by unexpected US inflation data, gold and silver prices were weak this week. Shanghai gold fell 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 0.80% to 9204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 2.21% to 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.27% to 38.02 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.85 [11]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected. These data suggest the impact of Trump's tariff policy on US prices, and Fed officials' views on inflation are divided [11]. - **Policy Expectations**: The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September with a probability of 92.1%, and another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will see the announcement of the new Fed chair, which may further boost rate - cut expectations [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai gold index is approaching the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The Shanghai silver index is forming a high - level diamond pattern, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities around the Jackson Hole meeting [13][14]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: Gold and silver prices were weak, and both domestic and foreign gold and silver positions declined. As of August 15, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.95% to 423,600 lots, and COMEX gold decreased by 0.78% to 446,200 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.16% to 761,000 lots, and COMEX silver decreased by 3% to 156,400 lots [27][29][32]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 15, the total holding of gold ETFs was 2185.3 tons, and the total holding of foreign silver ETFs was 27,406 tons [37]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rate Trends**: The yield curve of US Treasury bonds and inflation expectations are presented through various charts. The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows that the Treasury General Account on the liability side replenished 5.115 billion US dollars, and the reverse repurchase balance decreased by 4.367 billion US dollars [49][52][58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected [63]. - **Employment Data**: As of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, lower than expected [66]. - **PMI and PPI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, both lower than expected [69]. - **Housing Data**: In June, the annualized number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, and the annualized number of building permits was 1.397 million, both higher than expected [72]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Base Spreads**: The base spreads of gold and silver between TD and SHFE are presented through charts, and the spreads of both gold and silver have increased [75][77]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also presented through charts [81][83]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through charts [88][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through charts [93].

03 主要经济数据 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 需求偏弱，宽货币延续 国债周报 2025/08/16 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 ◆ 经济及政策：7月经济数据整体略有放缓，外需好于内需， "反内卷"对价格预期有所提振，但需求和生产端的配合仍有待观察；出口方面， 在抢出口效应的背景下7月进出口数据总体超预期，但往后看，在抢出口有所透支以及下半年基数抬升的影响下，出口可能有一定压力。海 外方面，市场对美国9月份降息预期较强，利好金融市场流动性。 1、国家统计局数据显示，7月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长5.7%；7月社会消费品零售总额38780亿元，同比增长3.7%；1-7月份，全国 固定资产投资（不含农户）288229亿元，同比增长1.6%。1—7月份，全国房地产开发投资53580亿元，同比下降12. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15] Core Viewpoints - The current bottom - up movement of the crude oil cost side will continuously suppress the asphalt valuation ratio. With the approaching of the US hurricane season in September, the small hurricane is expected to provide additional support to the cost - side crude oil. Although the rebound of crude oil prices is limited due to political expectations, the seasonal off - season of asphalt is expected to cause double contraction, thus continuing to suppress the valuation ratio. The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio [15]. - Overall, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited. With the implementation of OPEC's gradual production increase, the wide - range oscillation center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly. The downward movement of asphalt valuation in the second half of the year is likely. The current low start - up of independent refineries leaves little room for further decline. The return of major refinery capacity and the seasonal valuation off - season will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation and the upward space of asphalt's unilateral price [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. The current cost side of crude oil has bottomed out and is rising, which will suppress the asphalt valuation ratio [13][14][15]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The report maintains a short - allocation view on the asphalt valuation ratio. The mid - term impact factors show that in terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and the start - up of major refineries is expected to recover, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation; in terms of demand, the start - up rate has improved slightly, but overall demand is expected to be flat; in terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the oscillation center is expected to move down [15][16]. 2. Spot - Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report presents the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [20][23][26][28]. - **Basis Trend**: It shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions [30][31]. - **Term Structure**: It presents the term structure and price spreads of different asphalt contracts [33][35][37]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: The report shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [43][44]. - **Imports**: It presents the import volume of asphalt, diluted asphalt, and the import profit from different regions, as well as the cumulative import volume from different countries [46][50][55]. - **Valuation Ratio and Refinery Profit**: It shows the valuation ratios of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent, and the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [58][61][62]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It includes the inventory of domestic factories, social inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [69][72][74]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the main contract [77][78]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It presents the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese sample enterprises and sample enterprises in Shandong, East China, and North China regions [87][88][91]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes [94][95][98]. - **Highway Investment**: It presents the cumulative value of highway construction investment, the monthly value and year - on - year change of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation public fiscal expenditure [100][101]. - **Road - Related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volume and working hours of road - related machinery such as road rollers and excavators, as well as the cumulative value of highway construction investment [104][105]. - **Related Consumption**: It presents the completion of fixed - asset investment and the cumulative issuance of local government special bonds [107]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures [110][113][115]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It includes exploration and extraction links [120][121]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process, asphalt can be divided into several types, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By usage, it can be divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used in waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [122][124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 3600 high, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined. The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price [11]. - This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400). It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600, with strong macro - trading sentiment. The weekly increase in styrene shows cost > futures > spot, the basis has weakened, the BZN spread has risen, and the non - integrated EB plant profit has declined [11]. - **Cost**: Last week, the price of pure benzene in East China rose by 1.15%, and the pure benzene operating rate has declined from its peak [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate is 77.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, a year - on - year increase of 14.26%, and a decrease of 0.13% compared to the five - year average. According to the production plan, there are few production plans in the third quarter, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter. There are no planned maintenance in August, and the supply side may face pressure under the high operating rate [11]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 3.5456 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.59% and a year - on - year increase of 23.57%, mainly from the Middle East. The EB import volume in June was 220,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.78% and a year - on - year increase of 43.13%. This week, the pure benzene port inventory and the EB inventory in Jiangsu ports have decreased from their high levels [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three S products is 39.09%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.12%. The PS operating rate is 55.00%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.33%. The EPS operating rate is 43.67%, a week - on - week decrease of 19.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.86%. The ABS operating rate is 71.10%, a week - on - week increase of 7.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.94%. During the seasonal off - season, the demand for ABS is relatively good [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant EB inventory is 210,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% and a year - on - year increase of 31.59%. The EB inventory in Jiangsu ports is 148,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.42% and a year - on - year increase of 359.26%. The port inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - **Summary and Forecast**: The overall valuation is moderately low. With the decline in styrene production from its peak and the off - season demand for downstream three S products, there is a game between strong macro expectations and weak reality, resulting in the low - level consolidation of the futures price. This week's forecast: For pure benzene (BZ2603), the reference oscillation range is (6100 - 6400); for styrene (EB2507), the reference oscillation range is (7100 - 7400) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to take profit on the short position of the EB8 - 10 spread when the price rises [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, spreads between different contracts, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [14][17][19] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory from 2021 to 2025 [33][34][36] - **Profit**: The profit of styrene production processes such as ethylbenzene dehydrogenation and POSM has been oscillating downward. The proportion of styrene production processes is 85% for ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, 12% for PO/SM co - production, and 3% for C8 extraction. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity [39][41][45] 3.4 Cost Side - **Capacity and Production**: The design capacity, production, and growth rate of pure benzene in China are presented. The composition of pure benzene in China includes 71.0% petroleum benzene, 14.0% hydrogenated benzene, and 15.0% imported benzene. The profit distribution of the crude oil - naphtha - pure benzene - styrene - PS industrial chain is also shown [49] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, pure benzene will maintain a de - stocking trend, especially in the third quarter when the supply gap will increase significantly. The production plans of pure benzene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.28 million tons for pure benzene and 3.11 million tons for its downstream products [54][55] - **Operating Rate**: The pure benzene operating rate is lower than the same period in previous years. The operating rates of related products such as hydrogenated pure benzene, phenol, aniline, caprolactam, and adipic acid are also presented [68][71][76] - **Inventory**: The caprolactam factory inventory is decreasing from its high level. The monthly import volume of pure benzene is also shown [89][94][96] 3.5 Supply Side - **Supply Gap**: In 2025, styrene will start to be in short supply from the third quarter, and the gap may gradually narrow. The production plans of styrene and its downstream products in 2025 are listed, with a total planned production capacity of 2.42 million tons for styrene and 4.198 million tons for its downstream products [101][104][107] - **Production and Operating Rate**: There are no planned maintenance in August, and the styrene production is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. The daily production, export volume, weekly operating rate, and import volume of styrene are presented [113][114][116] 3.6 Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast**: The capacity, production, and growth rate of styrene downstream products such as ABS, PS, and EPS are presented [124][125][126] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of EPS and PS are seasonally oscillating, while the ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level. The production profits, factory inventories, and downstream demand proportions of these products are also shown [128][132][134] - **End - User Demand**: The monthly sales volume, production volume, inventory, and year - on - year growth rate of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented, reflecting the downstream demand for styrene [148][157][158]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Newly laid eggs are continuously increasing, and the limited number of culled chickens results in a consistently large supply scale. Egg prices in the peak season are weaker than expected, and funds have created a premium in the futures market. The near - month contracts are particularly weak. In the short - term, the futures market may fluctuate due to the expected rebound of spot prices and the volatility risk from high positions at low levels. In the medium - term, the reduction of basic production capacity is limited, so the focus should be on short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, domestic egg prices showed mixed trends, with red eggs slightly stronger and pink eggs still weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited due to supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. For example, the price of large - sized eggs in Heishan increased by 0.4 yuan to 3 yuan per catty, while in Guantao it decreased by 0.07 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. In the sales areas, the price in Huilongguan increased by 0.23 yuan to 3.25 yuan per catty, and in Dongguan it decreased by 0.19 yuan to 2.62 yuan per catty. Supply is abundant, with a high proportion of medium - and small - sized eggs, and large - sized eggs are increasing. Cold - storage eggs are also being sold. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [11][20]. - **Chicken Rearing and Culling**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, as breeding losses increase and seasonal factors come into play, the number of new chicken rearing has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1%. In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [11][33]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [11]. - **Demand Side**: After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, short - sell the 09, 10, and 11 contracts after a rebound, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 1 - 2 months. There is no recommendation for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Domestic egg prices showed mixed trends last week. Red eggs were slightly stronger, and pink eggs were weak. It's the traditional upward cycle, and there are bullish expectations, but price increases are limited by supply. This week, the culling of chickens increased slightly, chicken prices declined, and the average age of chickens remained high. Egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly this week [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: After the spot price strengthened, it lost momentum. The current basis is still low, the near - month contracts are under pressure, and the spread between months is suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Previously, more old chickens were culled, and there was over - culling in some areas, causing the price difference between white chickens and culled chickens to decline significantly. Recently, due to the expected price increase in the peak season, the culling of chickens has stagnated [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Rearing**: Since the second half of last year, the number of new chicken rearing has been high due to low costs. However, with increasing breeding losses and seasonal factors, the number has significantly decreased. In July, the national number of new chicken rearing was 79.96 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Culling**: In June, due to low - price losses, the culling of chickens increased, and the average age of chickens dropped to around 500 days. But since July, with increasing bullish sentiment in the market, the culling of chickens has stagnated, and the average age of chickens has returned to the relatively high level of 506 days [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of July, the inventory of laying hens in the sample was 1.356 billion, higher than expected, a month - on - month increase of 16 million compared to June and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% compared to last year's 1.277 billion. Assuming normal culling, the inventory is expected to increase further, reaching a peak of 1.367 billion in October this year, a 0.08% increase from the current level. Although it will decline later, the supply will still be excessive [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, stockpiling consumption has improved. With the upcoming pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually emerge from the off - season in the first half of the year and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly but is still low compared to the same period last year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, the inventory pressure has eased, and there is a seasonal downward trend. However, the inventory is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period [56].