1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, tin prices were high and strong. In terms of supply, the operation of tin ingot smelters in Jiangxi and Yunnan remained stable at a high level. In terms of demand, the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season at the end of the year, but the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by new - energy vehicles and AI servers. In the spot market, downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy with weak purchasing willingness. Tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks. High prices significantly inhibited tin demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate and weaken in the future [11][13] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In November 2025, the import of tin concentrates in China increased significantly, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The import volume of tin ore and its concentrates was 15,099 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.81% and a year - on - year increase of 24.42%. The imports from Myanmar (the largest source) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (the second - largest source) changed differently [12] - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, advanced, and the export volume increased significantly. However, the shortage of raw materials for smelting enterprises in Yunnan still existed, and the short - term operating rate remained stable with limited upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to the significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin was insufficient, and the output of refined tin remained at a low level. Overall, it is difficult to further improve the operating level of smelters in the short term [12] - Demand side: At the end of the year, the demand for consumer electronics entered the traditional off - season, but the operating rate of tin solder enterprises remained stable supported by new - energy vehicles and AI servers. In November, the output of tin solder of sample enterprises increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October. In the现货 market, downstream enterprises adopted a low - inventory strategy, resulting in a three - week increase in tin inventory. As of December 26, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,367 tons, an increase of 186 tons from the previous Friday [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) [19][20] 3.3 Cost Side - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including China's monthly tin ore production, tin ore import volume, tin concentrate price, and tin concentrate processing fee [24][26] 3.4 Supply Side - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales rebounded slightly, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. The report also presented data graphs of domestic computer production, smartphone production, output of household appliances (washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, color TVs), China's photovoltaic cell production, domestic key enterprise tin - plated strip production, domestic PVC monthly output, downstream solder enterprise operating rate, and domestic tin apparent consumption [43][44][46] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance (Inventory) - Not provided with specific text analysis content, only relevant data graphs are presented, including China's social inventory and LME inventory [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a wait - and - see stance, waiting for price pullbacks to stabilize [1] 2. Report's Core View - Macro and industrial factors jointly drove strong price increases in platinum and palladium, but prices fluctuated significantly and fell sharply in the last week of December. In the first quarter of this year, the overseas macro - environment will have a negative impact on the precious metals sector. It is expected that after further price declines, the volatility of platinum - group metals will significantly narrow. Currently, it is recommended to temporarily observe platinum and palladium strategies [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - Since the listing of domestic platinum - group metals, they have generally shown a trend of rising first and then falling. From November 27th to December 31st, the price of the platinum main contract rose 19.56% to 527.25 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract price rose 12.79% to 425.2 yuan/gram [10] - In December, the NYMEX platinum main contract price rose 38.85% to $2220 per ounce, and the palladium main contract price rose 15.09% to $1685.5 per ounce. However, in the last week of December, platinum and palladium prices fell 4.31% and 14.18% respectively [9] - The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion in December, along with potential future policy directions, drove up precious metal prices. The EU's decision to abandon the internal combustion engine vehicle ban boosted the demand outlook for catalysts, driving up platinum and palladium prices. But due to weak demand and relatively weak reserve and investment attributes, prices fell after the trading sentiment subsided [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The platinum price rose 38.85% to $2220 per ounce this month, and the total position increased from 83,700 lots in the week of November 25th to 97,000 lots in the week of December 16th [17] - **Palladium Price**: The palladium price rose 15.09% to $1685.5 per ounce this month, and the total position increased from 19,100 lots in the week of November 25th to 22,000 lots in the week of December 16th [18] - **Domestic Platinum Price and Spread**: As of December 31st, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 511.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly recovered [21] - **Lease Rate**: As of December 31st, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 19.67%, and that of palladium was 6.50%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [22] - **Platinum CFTC Net Position**: In the week of December 16th, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased from 13,800 lots to 15,400 lots [25] - **Palladium CFTC Net Position**: The net position of palladium managed funds turned from short to long, with a current net long position of 293 lots [28] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum ETF Holdings**: From December 1st to 30th, the total overseas platinum ETF holdings increased from 75.35 tons to 76.59 tons [39] - **Palladium ETF Holdings**: From December 1st to 30th, the total overseas palladium ETF holdings increased from 14.74 tons to 15.41 tons [42] - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of December 30th, the CME platinum inventory was 20.12 tons [46] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory continued to increase, reaching 6.53 tons as of December 30th [51] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Mining**: The predicted platinum production of the top 15 global mines in the fourth quarter of 2025 will reach 33.18 tons. The total annual production in 2025 will be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in platinum supply at the mine end [57] - **Palladium Mining**: The total production of the top 15 global palladium mines in the fourth quarter will be 41.36 tons. In 2025, the production of some mines will decline, but the production of Impala in South Africa will increase by 12%. Overall, the annual production of the top 15 mines will slightly contract, decreasing by 0.86% to 165.78 tons [60] - **China's Platinum Imports**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [63] - **China's Palladium Imports**: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [66] 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: The report presents various monthly spreads of NYMEX platinum, such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads [88][83] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: The report shows various monthly spreads of NYMEX palladium, including 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads [95][91] - **London Market Spot and NYMEX Spread**: The report provides the spreads between the London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, as well as the spreads between the London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are large, but near - month purchases are few. With expected low arrivals from February to March and pressured crushing margins, prices are expected to continue oscillating [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In December, CBOT soybean prices dropped significantly. The March contract closed at 1047.25 cents/bushel, down 98 cents/bushel (8.56% decline). In China, December saw falling prices of soybean and rapeseed meal. The May soybean meal contract closed at 2749 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton (3.37% decline), and the May rapeseed meal contract at 2365 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton (2.07% decline) [10]. - **Industry Information**: According to USDA data, the estimated global soybean production in December was 422.54 million tons, up 79,000 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, US cumulative soybean exports for the current year were 26.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.05 million tons. In November, Brazil exported 4.2 million tons of soybeans, a year - on - year increase of 1.64 million tons [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 5 - month contract basis of soybean meal was +290 yuan/ton, and the US soybean 3 - 5 spread was - 13.5 cents/bushel. The soybean import crushing margin was - 81 yuan/ton, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 399 yuan/ton. Overall, the market is expected to continue oscillating [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Prices**: The report presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [19][20]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of the May soybean meal contract and the May rapeseed meal contract [22][23]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [25]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Charts show the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [26][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Charts display the planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans [31][32][35]. - **Weather Conditions**: Charts show the precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared to the same period of the year [37][38][41]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Charts present the cumulative signing volume, next - year signing volume, exports to China, and monthly imports of soybeans in the US, as well as China's soybean and rapeseed monthly imports [46][48][51]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Charts show the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [55][56]. - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Charts display Brazil's monthly soybean exports, exports to China, weekly and cumulative shipments to China, as well as Argentina's weekly and cumulative shipments to China [58][59][61]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills [69][70]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [72][73]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Charts show the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas [75][76]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Charts display the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills [79]. - **Breeding Profit**: Charts show the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers [81][82].

跨市矛盾修复， 重回产业弱现实 锌月报 2026/01/04 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 美国财政及债务 图1：美国当月财政收支及赤字MA12（亿美元） 图2：美国国债总额/美国GDP比值（%）及国债总额（万亿美元） 资料来源：Wind、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：Wind、五矿期货研究中心 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 财政赤字MA12 财政支出MA12 财政收入MA12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 国债/GDP（左） 美国国债总额（右） 美联储资产负债表 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment is neutral. With the market starting to disclose the annual reports for the first quarter of 2026, the energy and chemical sector rebounded slightly. The overall profit of polyolefins decreased significantly, and the mid - stream inventory showed differentiation. The inventory of polyethylene traders decreased, while that of polypropylene traders fluctuated at a high level. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the significant appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, which increases the import profit of polyethylene and may lead to an increase in import volume, while the export of PP may be hindered. [16][17] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: The macro sentiment is neutral. The market starts to disclose the annual reports for the first quarter of 2026, and the energy and chemical sector rebounds slightly [16]. - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.02%, Brent crude oil fell by - 2.03%, coal prices remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol rose by 3.99%, ethylene increased by 5.38%, propylene decreased by - 4.90%, and propane decreased by - 1.83%. Oil prices rebounded at a low level, and under the background of weak supply and demand, the cost - end had a greater impact [16]. - **Supply - end**: The capacity utilization rate of PE was 82.27%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.36%, a year - on - year decrease of - 3.63%, and a decrease of - 13.00% compared with the five - year average. The capacity utilization rate of PP was 75.65%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.47%, a year - on - year decrease of - 2.42%, and a decrease of - 11.98% compared with the five - year average. There were no new capacity plans for the polyolefin 2605 contract [16]. - **Import and Export**: In November, the domestic PE import was 1.0622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 9.99%. The domestic PP import in November was 0.1793 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 8.74% and a year - on - year decrease of - 8.74%. The export season arrived. In November, the PE export was 0.0858 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07% and a year - on - year increase of 38.74%. The PP export was 0.2241 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.54% and a year - on - year increase of 36.59% [16]. - **Demand - end**: The downstream operating rate of PE was 41.15%, a month - on - month decrease of - 5.96% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.18%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 53.24%, a month - on - month decrease of - 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.33%. It was the seasonal off - season, and the overall operating rate had no highlights, but the BOPP demand was good [17]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of PE producers was 0.3707 million tons, a decrease of - 18.10% month - on - month and an increase of 22.50% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PE traders was 0.0276 million tons, a decrease of - 38.41% month - on - month and a decrease of - 15.14% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP producers was 0.5333 million tons, a decrease of - 2.38% month - on - month and an increase of 30.39% compared with the same period last year; the inventory of PP traders was 0.1872 million tons, a decrease of - 6.63% month - on - month and an increase of 44.33% compared with the same period last year; the PP port inventory was 0.0687 million tons, an increase of 5.21% month - on - month and an increase of 9.39% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2605) is (6300 - 6700); for polypropylene (PP2605), it is (6300 - 6600) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the spread between LL2605 and 2609 at low prices [18] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of LLDPE and PP futures contracts, as well as the price differences between different varieties and the import and export volume of PE and PP [34 - 74] 3. Cost - end - The coal - based production cost continued to decline. Multiple charts show the price trends of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, thermal coal, methanol, propane, LPG, etc., and the production profit and capacity utilization rate of related products [77 - 123] 4. Polyethylene Supply - end - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of different raw materials for PE production is presented, including oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE [126 - 129]. - **Production Plan**: There are multiple new production projects planned for domestic polyethylene in 2026. The total planned production capacity of un - put - into - production projects is 5.2 million tons [131]. - **Capacity and Utilization Rate**: Charts show the PE capacity, capacity growth rate, capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume [133 - 139] 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - **Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory, producer inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE [143 - 147]. - **Import and Export**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import and export volume of PE [149 - 157] 6. Polyethylene Demand - end - **Demand Proportion**: The downstream and terminal demand proportions of polyethylene are presented, with packaging film having the highest proportion [161 - 163]. - **Related Indicators**: Multiple charts show the CPI, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year growth rate, downstream operating rate, inventory available days, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PE [165 - 179] 7. Polypropylene Supply - end - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of different raw materials for PP production is presented, including oil - based, coal - based, PDH - based, externally - sourced propylene - based, and methanol - based PP [182 - 185]. - **Production Plan**: There are multiple new production projects planned for domestic polypropylene in 2026. The total planned production capacity of un - put - into - production projects is 4.37 million tons [189]. - **Capacity and Utilization Rate**: Charts show the PP capacity, capacity growth rate, capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume [187 - 194] 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - **Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory of PP [197 - 201]. - **Export**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative export volume of PP and the export destination proportion [202 - 209] 9. Polypropylene Demand - end - **Demand Proportion**: The downstream and terminal demand proportions of polypropylene are presented, with the拉丝 category having the highest proportion [213 - 215]. - **Related Indicators**: Multiple charts show the downstream operating rate, order days, and raw material and finished product inventory of PP [217 - 234]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - term, it is likely that the valuation of asphalt will decline in the second half of the year. The return of major refinery production capacity and the seasonal off - peak valuation period will limit the upward space of asphalt valuation (asphalt/crude oil), and the weak shock of crude oil at the cost end will also limit the upward space of asphalt's single - side price [15]. - In the short - term, considering that most of the crude oil is in maritime inventory and mostly distributed in the Asia - Pacific region, the upward range of oil prices due to geopolitical situations is limited, but the valuations of heavy oil and asphalt will significantly benefit. It is recommended to go long on the asphalt cracking spread during the period when the maritime inventory cannot be fully released [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price trend of the asphalt main contract from January 2025 to December 2025 is affected by supply - demand and cost factors. There are situations of supply - demand increase, cost decrease, etc. [13][14]. - **Medium - term Impact Factor Assessment**: In terms of supply, imports are expected to remain low, and major refineries are expected to resume a certain level of operation, which will limit the upward movement of asphalt valuation. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of road - modified asphalt and waterproofing membranes has improved, but overall demand is expected to be flat after the infrastructure peak season. In terms of cost, the upward space of oil prices in the second half of the year is limited, and the wide - range shock center of oil prices is expected to move down slightly [15]. - **Short - term Factor Assessment**: Supply is neutral - bearish as the start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is rising and overall imports remain strong. Demand is bearish as the start - up rates of all demand segments are weak and downstream shipments are flat. Inventory is neutral - bearish (partially priced in) as there is a problem of weak de - stocking and domestic total inventory exceeds expectations. The cost of crude oil is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and is in a weak shock process. The previous month's view was to wait and see, while this month's view is to go long on the asphalt cracking spread [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [19][21][23]. - **Basis Trend**: It presents the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2021 to 2025 [31]. - **Term Structure**: It shows the term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contracts such as 03 - 05, 04 - 05, and 03 - 06 [34][35]. 3. Supply Side - **Capacity Utilization and Profit**: It shows the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt and the production profit of Shandong asphalt from 2021 to 2025, as well as the relationship between asphalt start - up, profit, and crude oil price [41][44][46]. - **Imports**: It includes the import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, the import profit from different regions, and the cumulative import volume from countries such as South Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia [51][54]. - **Valuation Ratio**: It shows the ratio trends of fuel oil/asphalt and asphalt/Brent from 2021 to 2025 [57]. - **Refinery Profit**: It presents the refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the start - up rate and production profit of petroleum coke [60][63]. 4. Inventory - **Domestic Inventory**: It shows the trends of domestic factory inventory, social inventory, total inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [68]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract from 2021 to 2025 [71]. - **Relationship between Inventory, Profit, and Price**: It shows the relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price [74]. 5. Demand Side - **Enterprise Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes of Chinese, Shandong, East China, and North China sample enterprises from 2023 to 2025 [78][80][84]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: It shows the start - up rates of rubber shoe materials, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2021 to 2025 [89][92]. - **Highway Investment**: It shows the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment, the monthly year - on - year and monthly value of transportation public fiscal expenditure, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure [94][97][104]. - **Road - related Machinery**: It shows the monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China's transportation fixed - asset investment [105][109]. - **Related Consumption**: It shows the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management industries, as well as the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance [112][113]. 6. Related Indicators - **Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility**: It shows the trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures from 2021 to 2025 [123][121]. 7. Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - **Crude Oil Industrial Chain**: It includes exploration and extraction links [127][128]. - **Asphalt Industrial Chain**: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [131].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The price increase is mainly due to commodity sentiment, and it may face pressure when the market sentiment changes. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [14]. - For polysilicon, after the exchange's risk - control measures, the futures position has declined, trading volume has shrunk, and liquidity has tightened. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It's advisable to observe the actual spot transactions and changes in risk - control measures [17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - As of December 31, 2025, in the East China region, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8850 yuan/ton, also a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton [13][22]. - In December 2025, the industrial silicon output was 35.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 405.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.23 tons or 13.86% [30]. - The 1 - 12 month cumulative output of polysilicon was 130.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46%. The DMC output from January to December was 247.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93%. The cumulative output of aluminum alloy from January to November was 1745.6 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 289.50 tons or 19.88%. The cumulative net export of industrial silicon from January to November was 65.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.24 tons or 1.95% [13]. - At the end of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 50.33 tons, with factory inventory at 26.62 tons, market inventory at 19.00 tons, and registered warehouse - receipt inventory at 4.71 tons [13][49]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - Industrial silicon: As of December 31, 2025, in the East China region, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - blown) industrial silicon was 9200 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8850 yuan/ton, also a monthly decrease of 150 yuan/ton [13][22]. - Polysilicon: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 53 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.7 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.5 yuan/kg, a monthly increase of 0.5 yuan/kg [16][25]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - Total output: In December 2025, the industrial silicon output was 35.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 405.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65.23 tons or 13.86% [30]. - Main production areas: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8487.50 yuan/ton, 9720.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9775.00 yuan/ton in Sichuan [13][46]. - Production cost: As of December 31, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month, and the silicon stone price was stable month - on - month. The silicon coal price in the main production areas also remained flat month - on - month [43][46]. - Visible inventory: At the end of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 50.33 tons, with factory inventory at 26.62 tons, market inventory at 19.00 tons, and registered warehouse - receipt inventory at 4.71 tons [13][49]. 3.4 Polysilicon - Output: In December, the SMM - caliber polysilicon output was 11.22 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 130.52 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.46% [16][54]. - Operating rate and production schedule: The operating rate in November was 44.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.91 percentage points. The estimated output in January was 10.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease [57]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the polysilicon inventory was 30.83 tons according to the Baichuan Yingfu caliber and 30.6 tons according to the SMM caliber, with factory inventory accumulating [15][60]. - Cost and profit: At the end of December, the production cost was 42321.68 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 7888.84 yuan/ton, with relatively good profits [63]. - Downstream: In December, the silicon wafer output was 43.9GW, a month - on - month decrease of 10.47GW; the battery output was 46.76GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.85GW; the component output was 38.7GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2GW [15]. 3.5 Silicone - Output: In December, the DMC output was 20.48 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 tons. The 1 - 12 month cumulative output was 247.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.93% [92]. - Price and profit: As of December 31, 2025, the average price of silicone was 13600 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 400 yuan/ton, and the DMC gross profit was 1659.38 yuan/ton [95]. - Inventory: At the end of December, the DMC inventory was 4.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 tons [98]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - Aluminum alloy: As of December 31, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 22820 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 910 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 22510 yuan/ton, a monthly increase of 1180 yuan/ton. The cumulative output from January to November was 1745.6 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 289.50 tons or 19.88%. At the end of December, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 60% [103][106]. - Exports: From January to November, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 65.14 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.24 tons or 1.95% [109].

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 苯乙烯利润小幅修复， 持续做多EB-BZ价差 苯乙烯月报 从业资格号：F03115061 2026/01/04 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 政策端：宏观情绪中性，市场期待26年一季度披露年报业绩，能化板块小幅反弹。 估值：苯乙烯月度涨幅（现货＞期货＞成本），基差走强，BZN裂差走强，EB非一体化装置利润走强。 成本端：12月华东纯苯现货价格下跌-0.09%，纯苯活跃合约收盘价上涨0.20%，基差下跌16元/吨，纯苯开工降至同期最低；11 月国内纯苯进口量为459.62万吨，环比下降-7.48%，同比去年上涨5.93%，主要为中东地区货源。 供应端：EB产能利用率70.7%，环比上涨5.07%，同比去年下降-4.21%，较5年同期下降-6.97%。根据投产计划观察，四季度投产 压力环比上升，供应端或将承压。 进出口：11月EB进口量26.43万吨，环比下降-20.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market. Coupled with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to - long - term strategy should be mainly based on buying on dips [11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Trump claimed to have captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife and taken them out of Venezuela; in the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening year, multiple new rockets will make their maiden flights and attempt recovery; during the New Year's Day holiday, the Hang Seng Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index soared; the National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC H - shares from 4.79% to 9.25%; the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through 6.97, reaching a high of 6.9678, the highest since May 2023 [11] - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In November 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year; the official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, up from 49.2, with improvements in production and orders; in November 2025, the M1 growth rate was 4.9% (previous value 6.2%), and the M2 growth rate was 8.2% (previous value 8.0%), mainly affected by the base effect and reduced fiscal transfer payments; the social financing increment in November was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the increase in short - and medium - term corporate loans; in November 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year (previous value - 1.1%), with a significant improvement in exports to the EU; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, higher than the estimated 50,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.6%, higher than the estimated 4.5% [11] - **Interest Rate and Credit Environment**: This week, both the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate and the credit bond interest rate rebounded slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened towards the end of the year [11] - **Trading Strategy Recommendations** - **Unilateral**: Hold a small number of IM long positions. The valuation is at a moderately low level, and IM has a long - term discount. Recommended for the long - term, first proposed on July 23, 2022, with a recommendation grade of ★★★★★ [13] - **Unilateral**: Hold IF long positions with a profit - loss ratio of 3:1. A new round of interest - rate cuts has begun, and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit. Recommended for 6 months, first proposed on July 18, 2025, with a recommendation grade of ★★★★☆ [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Points and Changes**: The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3968.84, up 5.16 points or + 0.13%; the Shenzhen Component Index was at 13525.02, down 78.87 points or - 0.58%; the ChiNext Index was at 3203.17, down 40.70 points or - 1.25%; the Hang Seng Index was at 26338, up 520 points or + 2.01%; the AH ratio was at 120.89, down 1.28% [15] - **Futures Index Points, Turnover and Changes**: For example, IF current - month contract was at 4622.2, with a turnover of 11.51 billion yuan, down 32 points or - 0.69% [16] 3.3 Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators** - **GDP**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, expected to be 4.76%, and the previous value was 5.2% [33] - **PMI**: The official manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1, up from 49.2, with improvements in production and orders [11][33] - **Consumption**: In November 2025, the consumption growth rate was 1.3%, down from 2.9%, showing a decline for six consecutive months [36] - **Exports**: In November 2025, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year (previous value - 1.1%), mainly due to the month - on - month improvement in exports to the EU [11][36] - **Investment**: In November 2025, the investment growth rate was - 2.6% (previous value - 1.7%). Manufacturing investment increased by 1.9%, real - estate investment decreased by 15.9%, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1%, all continuing the downward trend [39] - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 third - quarter report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, 1.22 percentage points higher than that in the semi - annual report; the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89%, 1.83 percentage points higher than that in the semi - annual report [42] 3.4 Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: This week, both the 10Y Treasury bond interest rate and the 3 - year AA - corporate bond interest rate rebounded slightly [11][45] - **Credit Environment** - **M1 and M2**: In November 2025, the M1 growth rate was 4.9% (previous value 6.2%), and the M2 growth rate was 8.2% (previous value 8.0%), mainly affected by the base effect and reduced fiscal transfer payments [11][57] - **Social Financing**: The social financing increment in November was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.97 billion yuan year - on - year, mainly due to the growth of short - and medium - term corporate financing [11][57] 3.5 Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This month, about 59 billion new shares of equity - oriented funds were established, a decline from the previous period; the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 82 billion yuan, and the latest balance was 253.8518 billion yuan, hitting a new high [63][66] - **Outflow**: This month, major shareholders' shareholding reductions remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [69] 3.6 Valuation - **Price - Earnings Ratio (TTM)**: Shanghai 50 was at 11.85, CSI 300 was at 14.17, CSI 500 was at 33.80, and CSI 1000 was at 46.30 [73] - **Price - to - Book Ratio (LF)**: Shanghai 50 was at 1.30, CSI 300 was at 1.49, CSI 500 was at 2.32, and CSI 1000 was at 2.47 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The capacity reduction is slow, and the overall supply remains high. However, the late Spring Festival keeps the stocking sentiment alive, and the expectation of capacity reduction due to continuous losses still exists. In the short - term, the downside space for the spot price is limited, but the upside space is also restricted. - The futures market has partially priced in the post - festival price decline and future capacity reduction expectations, lacking short - term driving forces. From a valuation perspective, focus on shorting after a rebound [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: In December, domestic egg prices rose first and then fell, showing a strong - side oscillation. The demand improved slightly, and the number of culled chickens increased slightly, with the chicken age declining. However, the large inventory and high proportion of peak - laying hens led to a high laying rate, limiting the price increase. At the end of the month, market confidence was insufficient, and egg prices dropped slightly. In January, due to the Spring Festival stocking, demand will increase, and egg prices may rise gradually, reaching the peak in the second half of the month. In February, during the Spring Festival holiday, demand will decline significantly, and egg prices may drop sharply [11]. - **Replenishment and Culling**: Affected by the weak egg prices and continuous losses in farming, the market's replenishment sentiment remained low. Due to seasonal factors, the replenishment in December increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decline of 13.9%. The egg price rebound was weak, and farming losses expanded. The market's culling sentiment remained positive. The price of old chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year, and the culling - white chicken price spread further narrowed. The chicken age dropped to 484 days, but it was still far from excessive culling. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than the previous period and slightly lower than expected, mainly because the number of newly - laying hens gradually decreased and the number of culled chickens exceeded expectations. However, the absolute number was still large, a month - on - month decrease of 8 million compared to November and a 5% year - on - year increase compared to 1.28 billion in December last year. Based on previous replenishment data, considering normal culling, the inventory is expected to peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%. The relative supply will gradually decrease, but the absolute supply will still be high [11]. - **Demand**: Traders have completed their New Year's Day stocking. As the goods are gradually consumed, traders may start restocking after New Year's Day, and the demand is expected to increase first and then decrease this month [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, stop the profit of previous short positions and then wait and observe, paying attention to the upper pressure. For the arbitrage strategy, focus on reverse arbitrage [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: The domestic egg prices in December showed a strong - side oscillation, rising first and then falling. The increase was limited by large supply. The prices in different regions showed different trends. In January, prices may rise due to Spring Festival stocking, and in February, they may decline due to reduced demand [20]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis is low, and the weak spot price trend leads the spread to be suitable for reverse arbitrage [23]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Although the egg price rebounded from a low level, the farming was still in a loss state. The market's culling sentiment remained positive, and the absolute price of culled chickens and the culling - white chicken price spread hit new lows [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - laying Hen Replenishment**: Affected by weak egg prices and continuous farming losses, the market's replenishment sentiment remained low. In December, the replenishment increased slightly by 0.1% month - on - month to 79.18 million, a year - on - year decline of 13.9% [33]. - **Culled Chicken Sales**: The weak egg price rebound and expanded farming losses led to positive culling sentiment. The price of old chickens hit a multi - year low year - on - year, and the culling - white chicken price spread further narrowed. The chicken age dropped to 484 days, but it was still far from excessive culling [36]. - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of December, the inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, lower than expected. The inventory is expected to peak and decline in the future, dropping to 1.286 billion by May next year, a decline of 4.3%. The absolute supply will still be high [38][41]. 3.4 Demand Side Traders' New Year's Day stocking has ended. As the goods are gradually consumed, they may start restocking after New Year's Day, and the egg demand this month is expected to increase first and then decrease [46]. 3.5 Cost and Profit The cost is lower year - on - year and month - on - month, and the profit is at a seasonally low level [51]. 3.6 Inventory Side The inventory is basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56].