铜周报 2025/08/16 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 波动下降，等待进一步驱动 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 06 资金端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 ◆ 供应：铜精矿现货加工费小幅回升，粗铜加工费环比持平，冷料供应边际平稳。消息面，智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）表示，埃尔特尼恩 特（EI Teniente）铜矿的冶炼厂已经重启运行。 ◆ 库存：三大交易所库存环比增加0.7万吨，其中上期所库存增加0.4至8.6万吨，LME库存微增至15.6万吨，COMEX库存增加0.3至24.2万吨。上 海保税区库存增加0.5万吨。现货方面，周五国内上海地区现货升水期货180元/吨，LME市场Cash/3M贴水93.8美元/吨。 ◆ 进出口：国内电解铜现货进口亏损缩窄，洋山铜溢价下滑。海关总署数据显示，2025年7月我国未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48万吨，环比增加 1.6万吨，同比增加9.6%，1-7月累计进口量为3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic macro sentiment is high, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3600 - point mark, and the capital market sentiment has turned warm. Along with the "anti - involution" policy of domestic chemical enterprises, the polyolefin reverse spread market has stabilized. Currently, the crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. In the first half of the year, 3.53 million tons of PE production capacity was put into operation (70% completed), with a remaining plan of 1.5 million tons; 4.5 million tons of PP production capacity was put into operation (70% completed), with a remaining plan of 1.9 million tons. Against the background that the supply - side pressure of the polyolefin 09 contract has not been falsified, even if the agricultural film orders at the demand - side rebound, the upward momentum of the polyolefin seasonal peak season is limited [15][16]. 3. Summaries according to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - level Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Valuation**: The domestic macro sentiment is high, the Shanghai Composite Index has broken through 3600 points, and the capital market sentiment has improved. The weekly increase rates of polyethylene and polypropylene are in the order of cost > futures > spot [15]. - **Cost**: Last week, WTI crude oil fell by 2.64%, Brent crude oil fell by 1.88%, coal price rose by 2.82%, methanol fell by 0.41%, ethylene rose by 3.93%, propylene rose by 3.19%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. The cost - side support has weakened [15]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 84.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.53%, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%, and a decrease of 5.72% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 78.80%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74%, a year - on - year increase of 8.51%, and a decrease of 9.16% compared with the five - year average. According to the production plan, the PE production capacity will face greater pressure in August [15]. - **Import and Export**: In June, the domestic PE import volume was 959,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.63%. The PP import volume was 153,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.78%. The import profit has decreased, and the PE supply from North America has decreased, reducing the import - side pressure. In June, the PE export volume was 96,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95% and a year - on - year increase of 48.84%. The PP export volume was 209,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24.29% and a year - on - year increase of 39.35%. The 40% transit tariff imposed by the US on Vietnam, the largest destination of China's PP exports, may hinder PP exports [15]. - **Demand**: The PE downstream operating rate is 39.20%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.45%. The PP downstream operating rate is 49.35%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 0.59%. At the end of the seasonal off - season, no increase in downstream agricultural film orders has been seen [15]. - **Inventory**: The PE production enterprise inventory is 444,500 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 13.76% and a year - on - year destocking of 2.63%; the PE trader inventory is 60,900 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 0.48%. The PP production enterprise inventory is 587,500 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 0.07% and a year - on - year inventory build - up of 10.25%; the PP trader inventory is 179,700 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 4.06%; the PP port inventory is 60,500 tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 0.98% [15]. - **Prediction and Strategy**: This week, the reference oscillation range for polyethylene (LL2509) is (7200 - 7500); for polypropylene (PP2509), it is (7000 - 7300). It is recommended to continue holding the LL9 - 1 reverse spread position for profit - taking [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - In August, there are many PE production plans, and the LL - PP spread may oscillate weakly [65]. 3.3 Cost - side - **Overall Cost Changes**: The oil - based cost has decreased significantly. Last week, WTI crude oil fell by 2.64%, Brent crude oil fell by 1.88%, coal price rose by 2.82%, methanol fell by 0.41%, ethylene rose by 3.93%, propylene rose by 3.19%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00% [15]. - **LPG - related Situation**: The gross profit of major refineries has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased. In July, the LPG shipment volume rebounded, and the supply from the Middle East continued to increase [97][117]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Material Proportion**: The proportion of raw materials for PE production is 62.00% oil - based, 19.00% light - hydrocarbon - based, 15.00% coal - based, 3.00% methanol - based, and 1.00% purchased ethylene - based [151]. - **Capacity and Production Plan**: The total domestic PE production capacity has been increasing. In 2025, 3.53 million tons of production capacity has been put into operation, and 1.5 million tons is yet to be put into operation. Some projects have been postponed [155][157]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PE capacity utilization rate and maintenance reduction volume have shown certain trends over time [160][162].

04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 区间思路 生猪周报 2025/08/16 010-60167188 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价普遍小涨后回落，整体窄幅波动，周内均重维持平稳，局部降重继续进行，局部有压栏惜售迹象，周内肥标差小幅反 弹，屠宰量环比仍增加；具体看，河南均价周涨0.1元至13.9元/公斤，周内最高14元/公斤，四川均价周涨0.15元至13.56元/公斤，周内最 高13.66元/公斤，广东均价周落0.44元至14.96元/公斤；养殖端降重行为接近尾声，出栏节奏放缓，需求端随着北方降温存在小幅回暖空间， 预计本周猪价环比平稳，局部或小幅上涨。 ◆ 供应端：6月官方母猪存栏为4043万头，环比小升，仍比正常母猪保有量多3.7%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或导致25年基本面弱于24 年；不过，当前政策端强制去产能的预期较强，或在今年无明显亏损的背景下改善明年的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats overall closed higher. The bullish factors such as the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's imposition of temporary margins on Canadian rapeseed stimulated the market. However, the actual weak consumption and rumors of Australian rapeseed purchases led to profit - taking. The high - frequency data showed that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from August 1st to 15th increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month. The strong pattern of oils and fats is difficult to change in the short term [11]. - The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US in the 2025/2026 season will increase by about 1.5 million tons. India may have started the restocking process, which will support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year, with sufficient supply. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will show a slight downward trend, the export willingness of palm oil will increase after the production rises, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - Fundamentally, factors such as the unexpected US biodiesel policy draft, the limited growth potential of Southeast Asian palm oil production, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the B50 policy. However, the current valuation is relatively high, and the upside space is restricted by factors such as the annual - level expected increase in oil production, the relatively high near - term production of palm oil in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, and the adjustment of demand by major importing countries [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: The three major oils and fats closed higher this week. The bullish factors included the expected tight supply - demand of palm oil and China's measures against Canadian rapeseed. The high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil exports in August was good. The supply - demand of Southeast Asian palm oil was basically balanced, and the observable oil inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The price of domestic rapeseed oil was also pushed up by the tension in China - Canada trade relations [11]. - **International Oils and Fats**: The USDA 8 - month report maintained that the US will increase the industrial demand for soybean oil by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. It is expected that Canada's rapeseed production will increase by 100,000 tons to 19.25 million tons in the 2025/2026 season. India may start the restocking process [11]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats**: This week, the trading volume of soybean oil was good, while that of palm oil was weak. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats is about 300,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, the export willingness of palm oil will increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will show a slow destocking trend [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, multiple factors support the price center of oils and fats. Palm oil prices are expected to be strong in the range from July to September and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, the current high valuation restricts the upside space [11][12][13]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion**: For the unilateral strategy, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly. No relevant content is provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - Malaysian palm oil 2510, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil 10, and the basis of 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [18][20][23][26] 3.3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, as well as the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, and the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [29][31][32][33] - **Palm Production Area Weather**: The report provides charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm production areas, as well as charts related to the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate [34][36] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: The report presents the charts of the total domestic inventory of the three major oils and fats and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [42] - **Inventory of Different Oils**: It shows the import profit, commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong, the inventory of major soybean oil mills, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed in coastal areas, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of palm oil in Malaysian and Indonesian producing areas [44][46][48][49] 3.5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report presents the charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [53] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: It shows the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese imported rapeseed [56] 3.6. Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Transaction**: The report presents the charts of the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [59] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It shows the charts of the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil) [61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals have both decreased. Australia's shipments continued to decline due to mine maintenance, while Brazil's shipments rebounded. The daily average hot metal production increased slightly, mainly due to the improvement in the capacity utilization rate of previously restarted blast furnaces. Port inventories increased slightly, and the increase in steel mills' imported ore inventories was more obvious. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken, and the decline in rebar consumption data was significant. From a fundamental perspective, the supply side is in the traditional off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has begun to decline after raw material prices reached relatively high levels. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited. After the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the short - term iron ore price may experience a slight adjustment. Additionally, the news of the suspension of production of independent rolling enterprises in Tangshan from mid - month to the military parade has a certain but relatively insignificant impact on the raw material price. Attention should be paid to whether blast furnace enterprises will follow suit [11][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global total iron ore shipments were 30.467 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,100 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.303 million tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons. Australia's shipments were 16.625 million tons, a decrease of 1.177 million tons, and the shipments from Australia to China were 14.478 million tons, a decrease of 996,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.678 million tons, an increase of 1.158 million tons. The total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons [11]. - Demand: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - Inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in the country was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.143 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 103,500 tons [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Spread: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 127 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 112 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 154 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 7.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feed ratio was 15.13%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.2%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feed ratio was 72.67%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,265 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week; the import profit of PB powder was - 10.49 yuan/wet ton [28]. 3.3 Inventory - The imported iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 138.1927 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 million tons. The pellet inventory was 324,690 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,130 tons. The iron concentrate inventory at ports was 1.09524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,180 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.68774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,970 tons. The Australian ore inventory at ports was 61.2753 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,570 tons. The Brazilian ore inventory at ports was 49.4084 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 68,770 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 91.364 million tons, an increase of 1.2306 million tons from the previous week [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - The latest shipments from Australia to China via 19 ports were 13.656 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.228 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.474 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.047 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 5.841 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 573,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 874,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 5.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 270,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 2.666 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 253,000 tons. The arrivals at 45 ports were 23.819 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.259 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.21%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points from the previous period. The daily average production of iron concentrate in domestic mines was 47,790 tons, an increase of 2,020 tons from the previous period [50][53][56][59][65]. 3.5 Demand Side - The domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 3,400 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.3467 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128,200 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9852 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 380 tons [70][73]. 3.6 Basis - As of August 15, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 61.76 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.37% [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the weekly performance of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, polyester, and terminal products. It points out that the market is in a state of waiting for the peak season. Although there are some improvements in the terminal, the overall upstream valuation is still suppressed by the weak performance of the terminal and polyester. It also suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last week, the price fluctuated. The supply side saw an increase in load, with some domestic and overseas device changes. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load, but the overall load in August decreased. The inventory continued to decline in July - August. The PXN fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11]. - **PTA**: The price also fluctuated last week. The supply side had an increase in load, but the overall load in August decreased due to more maintenance. The new device put into production increased the supply pressure. The demand side saw an increase in polyester load, and the terminal showed some improvement. The inventory continued to accumulate. The processing fee rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the peak season [12]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated last week. The supply side had a decrease in load, mainly due to the decline in ethylene - based load. The subsequent load is expected to increase. The demand side is similar to PTA. The inventory in ports and downstream factories increased. The valuation is relatively high, and there is a downward pressure on the short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis rebounded, and the spread was weak. The trading volume was small, and the open interest was stable [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis was continuously weak, and the spread fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest were at a relatively high level [42]. - **MEG**: The trading volume and open interest were at a low level [60]. 3.3 p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The device load increased. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes in operation status. The new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [72][74]. - **Import**: The import volume in June was stable [77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in June [85]. - **Cost - profit**: The PXN fluctuated, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending was weak, and the US - South Korea aromatics spread was also weak [89][96][105]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: The new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 has been or will be put into production. The load in June decreased, and the export volume was low [129][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased from a low level [137]. - **Profit - valuation**: The processing fee was repaired [140]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The Zhengdakai Phase I was put into production. The ethylene device had an accident, and the load of the syngas - based device was at a historical high. The new capacity of Ningxia Kunpeng Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and BASF will be put into production in the future [144][148]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased this week [158]. - **Cost**: The coal price decreased, and the ethylene price increased slightly [168]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated. The operating rate increased, and the export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of long - filament was neutral, the inventory of staple fiber increased, and the absolute inventory of bottle chips was high. The profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [186][189][192][198][201][212]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate increased. The orders of textile enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, and the raw material inventory increased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing decreased, and the export was weak [214][222][226].

库存持续累积， 估值支撑走弱 PVC周报 2025/08/16 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2275元/吨，周同比下跌65元/吨；山东电石价格报2780元/吨，周同比持平；兰炭陕西中料620元/吨，周同比持 平。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润有所修复，乙烯制利润小幅下降，目前估值支撑较弱。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率80.3%，环比上升0.9%；其中电石法80%，环比上升1.3%；乙烯法81.3%，环比下降0.2%。上周供应端负荷小幅上升，主 因中泰阜康、福建万华开工提升，下周预期负荷回落。8月检修量下降，并且新装置逐渐释放产量，供应压力加大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度反倾销政策延期至9月底，三季度弱出口的压力缓解，存在雨季末抢出口的预期；三大下游开工上周持稳，管材负荷33%， 环比上升0.9%；薄膜负荷 ...

左侧布多 原油周报 2025/08/16 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0022675 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 04 原油供应 02 宏观&地缘 05 原油需求 03 油品价差 06 原油库存 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/11 2025/6/18 2025/6/25 2025/7/2 2025/7/9 2025/ ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the improvement in downstream stainless - steel demand is limited, and nickel prices still face correction pressure. However, in the medium to long term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will provide strong support for nickel prices, and the new - year RKAB approval also poses potential positive factors. The downside space for nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term price range for the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract, it is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The rainy season in Sulawesi ended this week, leading to a short - term increase in nickel ore supply. Most RKAB approvals in Indonesia are nearly completed, with approved quotas of about 3.1 - 3.3 billion wet tons. The tight supply of nickel ore has eased, and short - term ore prices may decline slightly. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), and that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week) [12]. - **Ferronickel**: Supply decreased slightly due to low profit levels at iron plants. Stainless - steel supply remains low, with August production expected to be flat month - on - month. Downstream speculative restocking in the demand side provides some support for stainless - steel demand, and social inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks. It is expected that stainless - steel supply will increase slightly, driving up ferronickel demand. Overall, the surplus pressure of ferronickel has eased slightly, and prices are stable with an upward trend. A domestic iron plant's high - nickel ferronickel was traded at 950 yuan/nickel (ex - works tax - included) this week, and mainstream quotes rose to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (cargo - in - hold tax - included) [12]. - **Intermediate products**: For MHP, the external procurement demand from downstream nickel sulfate has been released, while the trading volume from traders is limited, resulting in a shortage of supply and a significant increase in coefficient prices. For high - grade nickel matte, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is relatively weak, market transactions are sluggish, and coefficient prices remain stable [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly this week and then declined, closing at 120,600 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.2% from last week. The release of US July CPI data strengthened market expectations of monetary easing, but the subsequent PPI data showed resilience, slightly cooling market expectations of interest - rate cuts. In the spot market, downstream orders in the alloy and electroplating industries are scarce, market transactions are dull, and spot prices mainly fluctuate with the futures market, with stable premiums and discounts [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined nickel prices**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 122,550 yuan/ton (down 410 yuan/ton, - 0.33% from last week), and that of Russian nickel was 120,750 yuan/ton (down 370 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from last week). The LME closing price was 15,195 US dollars (up 80 US dollars, + 0.53% from last week), and the SHFE closing price was 120,600 yuan (down 580 yuan, - 0.48% from last week) [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 211,700 tons (down 600 tons, - 0.27% from last week), SHFE inventory was 27,000 tons (up 800 tons, + 2.93% from last week), bonded - area inventory was 5,400 tons (unchanged from last week), nickel plate spot inventory was 37,500 tons (up 2,000 tons, + 5.53% from last week), and nickel bean spot inventory was 2,900 tons (unchanged from last week) [16]. - **Premium and discount**: As of August 15, the average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton from last week), and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton from last week). The LME Cash/3M nickel discount was 207.88 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than the same period last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ex - works price of domestic high - nickel pig iron on Friday was 916 - 935 yuan/nickel point (average up 7 yuan/nickel point from last week), and the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,300 - 27,790 yuan/ton (average up 105 yuan/ton from last week) [26]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 15, nickel ore port inventories reached 1,095.16 million tons, up 6.0% from the same period last week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week), and the CIF price of 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore was 57 US dollars/ton (unchanged from last week) [34][37]. - **Intermediate products**: In June, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,000 nickel tons (basically flat month - on - month), and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons (significantly up month - on - month). As of August 15, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,684 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient to LME nickel of 0.86 (unchanged from last week); the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,054 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient to LME nickel of 0.88 (unchanged from last week) [44][49]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel production reached 36,200 tons, maintaining a historically high level [54]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [56][58]. - **Inventory**: Global refined nickel inventories increased slightly this week. According to Mysteel data, on August 15, the combined visible inventory in China and LME reached 252,000 tons, up 1,027 tons from the same period last month [63]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows production and net import volume data of nickel sulfate in China, but specific supply trends are not clearly summarized [69]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [72]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents the production cost, price, and profit - margin data of battery - grade nickel sulfate, but specific trends are not clearly summarized [74]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides quarterly supply - demand balance data from 2023 to 2025, showing that the overall supply of nickel exceeds demand, but the surplus is gradually narrowing. In 2025, the total supply is expected to be 3.7688 million nickel tons, and the total demand is 3.6024 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 8,000 yuan/ton, while keeping an eye on potential industry policies [15]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with support levels at 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the impact of warehouse receipts on prices and the progress of capacity integration [17]. Summary by Directory 01. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights** - Polysilicon weekly production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 29,200 tons, continuing to rise but still lower than the same period in 2024; DMC production was 51,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200 tons [13]. - The spot price of 553 (non-oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week; 421 was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [14]. - The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,345.83 yuan/ton, Yunnan 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan 9,100 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 9,040 yuan/ton [14]. - Industrial silicon weekly production (Baichuan) was 84,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons; from January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%; the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - Industrial silicon inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 692,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,200 tons, remaining at a high level [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - For industrial silicon, 553 and 421 are at a premium to the futures, costs are basically stable, supply continues to increase this week, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains high [15]. - For polysilicon, the futures are at a premium, supply increases week-on-week, profit is positive, demand improves slightly, and inventory remains high [17]. 02. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon** - As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non-oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton week-on-week; 421 was 9,750 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week-on-week. The futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon** - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed material (SMM) was 47 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week; N-type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, unchanged week-on-week. The futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 52,740 yuan/ton, up 1,950 yuan/ton [25]. 03. Industrial Silicon - **Total Production** - As of August 15, 2025, industrial silicon weekly production (Baichuan) was 84,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons; in July 2025, production was 321,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9,800 tons; from January to July, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 464,500 tons or 17.56% [30]. - **Production in Main Producing Areas** - No specific production data for each main producing area was summarized in the text, but there are relevant production trend charts [32][34]. - **Production Cost** - As of August 15, 2025, electricity prices in main producing areas were flat week-on-week, and silica prices were stable week-on-week [43]. - The average production cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,345.83 yuan/ton, Yunnan 9,393.75 yuan/ton, Sichuan 9,100 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 9,040 yuan/ton [46]. - **Visible Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, industrial silicon inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 692,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,200 tons, remaining at a high level. Factory inventory was 267,300 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1,100 tons; market inventory was 172,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 253,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,300 tons [49]. 04. Polysilicon - **Production** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon weekly production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 29,200 tons, continuing to rise but still lower than the same period in 2024; in July (SMM), production was 106,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5,300 tons; from January to July, cumulative production was 679,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.03% [54]. - **Operating Rate and Scheduled Production** - In July (Baichuan Yingfu), the polysilicon operating rate was 39.23%, a month-on-month increase of 3.91 percentage points. SMM expects August production to be 130,500 tons, with the operating rate continuing to rise [57]. - **Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon factory inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 267,900 tons; inventory (SMM) was 242,000 tons, remaining at a high level compared to the same period [60]. - **Cost and Profit** - As of August 15, 2025, polysilicon production cost (Baichuan Yingfu) was 41,453.24 yuan/ton, a slight week-on-week increase; gross profit was 3,784.86 yuan/ton [63]. - **Downstream Products** - **Silicon Wafer**: As of August 15, 2025, weekly production (SMM) was 12.1 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; in July, production was 52.75 GW, a month-on-month decrease of 6.09 GW; from January to July, cumulative production was 373.08 GW, a year-on-year decrease of 10.31%. Inventory was 19.8 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; August production is predicted to be 53.29 GW, a slight month-on-month increase [66][69]. - **Battery Cell**: In July (SMM), production was 58.19 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.12 GW; the operating rate was 62.4%, a month-on-month increase of 3.32 percentage points. From January to July, cumulative production was 388.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.06%. Inventory was 4.98 GW, a slight week-on-week increase; August production is expected to be 59.15 GW, a slight month-on-month increase [74][77]. - **Component**: In July (SMM), production was 47.1 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.8 GW; the operating rate was 45.92%, a month-on-month increase of 0.72 percentage points. From January to July, cumulative production was 330.4 GW, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%. Inventory was 34.5 GW, continuing to rise week-on-week; August production is expected to be 46.82 GW, a decrease from July [82][85]. 05. Silicone - **Production** - As of August 15, 2025, DMC production (Baichuan Yingfu) was 51,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200 tons; in July, production was 206,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,300 tons; from January to July, cumulative production was 1.4334 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 18.17% [92]. - **Price and Profit** - As of August 15, 2025, the average price of silicone (SMM) was 11,400 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 750 yuan/ton; DMC gross profit (Baichuan Yingfu) was -1,659.38 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decline [95]. - **Inventory** - As of August 15, 2025, DMC inventory (Baichuan Yingfu) was 48,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1,400 tons [98]. 06. Silicon Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy** - As of August 15, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,130 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 70 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,410 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 120 yuan/ton; from January to June, the cumulative output was 9.097 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [103]. - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 56.6%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 53% [106]. - **Exports** - From January to June, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [109].