Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all performing this way [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has dropped to a level below the historical average [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial long seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, in addition to the above two strategies, an arbitrage strategy of combining long synthetic futures with short futures can also be constructed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,870.28, up 45.47 points or 1.19%, with a trading volume of 766.8 billion yuan and an increase of 33.5 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,224.51, up 309.85 points or 2.40%, with a trading volume of 1,044.3 billion yuan and an increase of 53.4 billion yuan [4]. - The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2,991.68, up 36.89 points or 1.25%, with a trading volume of 107.5 billion yuan and an increase of 4.1 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,579.88, up 82.32 points or 1.83%, with a trading volume of 452.5 billion yuan and an increase of 62 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7,137.83, up 136.52 points or 1.95%, with a trading volume of 302.4 billion yuan and an increase of 17.4 billion yuan [4]. - The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,288.74, up 107.12 points or 1.49%, with a trading volume of 366.3 billion yuan and an increase of 4.6 billion yuan [4]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The Shanghai 50 ETF closed at 3.058, up 0.035 or 1.16%, with a trading volume of 8.8631 million shares and an increase of 8.7844 million shares, and a trading value of 2.696 billion yuan and an increase of 0.253 billion yuan [5]. - The Shanghai 300 ETF closed at 4.699, up 0.079 or 1.71%, with a trading volume of 10.8561 million shares and an increase of 10.7792 million shares, and a trading value of 5.079 billion yuan and an increase of 1.52 billion yuan [5]. - Other ETFs also have corresponding closing prices, price changes, trading volume, and trading value changes [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - Different option varieties have different volume, volume changes, position, position changes, volume PCR, and position PCR values [6]. For example, the volume PCR of the Shanghai 50 ETF option decreased by 0.45 to 0.88, and the position PCR increased by 0.11 to 0.98 [6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - For different option varieties, the pressure points, support points, and their offsets are provided. For example, the pressure point of the Shanghai 50 ETF is 3.12 with an offset of - 0.08, and the support point is 3.02 with an offset of - 0.08 [8]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the weighted implied volatility of the Shanghai 50 ETF option decreased by 0.41 to 13.64% [11]. 3.6 Strategy and Suggestions - The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small and medium - sized boards, and the ChiNext board, with specific sub - sectors and corresponding option varieties [13]. - For each sector, option strategies are provided based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and specific option strategies. For example, for the financial stock sector (Shanghai 50 ETF), a partial neutral seller combination strategy can be constructed, and a spot long covered call strategy can also be used [14].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: December 18, 2025 - Report Summary: The report provides an analysis of the metal options market, including the performance of various metal futures, option factors, and trading strategies [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The有色金属 sector is expected to move upward, and a neutral volatility strategy for sellers is recommended [2] - The黑色系 sector is expected to maintain high volatility, and a short volatility strategy is recommended [2] - The贵金属 sector is expected to rebound, and a bull spread strategy is recommended [2] Group 4: Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2601): The latest price is 92,680, up 380 (0.41%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 6.63 million lots, down 3.58 million lots, and the open interest is 13.65 million lots, down 0.93 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2601): The latest price is 21,985, up 145 (0.66%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.34 million lots, down 2.73 million lots, and the open interest is 12.40 million lots, down 0.85 million lots [3] - Zinc (ZN2601): The latest price is 23,045, up 135 (0.59%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 12.06 million lots, down 1.80 million lots, and the open interest is 5.92 million lots, down 1.40 million lots [3] - Lead (PB2601): The latest price is 16,825, up 55 (0.33%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.02 million lots, down 0.05 million lots, and the open interest is 2.69 million lots, down 0.28 million lots [3] - Nickel (NI2601): The latest price is 113,300, up 570 (0.51%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 13.96 million lots, down 1.77 million lots, and the open interest is 9.41 million lots, down 1.15 million lots [3] - Tin (SN2601): The latest price is 334,240, up 9,230 (2.84%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 16.68 million lots, down 5.58 million lots, and the open interest is 3.21 million lots, down 0.02 million lots [3] - Alumina (AO2601): The latest price is 2,573, up 23 (0.90%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 19.30 million lots, down 9.09 million lots, and the open interest is 18.04 million lots, down 1.05 million lots [3] - Gold (AU2602): The latest price is 982.48, up 5.18 (0.53%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 27.59 million lots, down 1.80 million lots, and the open interest is 19.71 million lots, up 0.09 million lots [3] - Silver (AG2602): The latest price is 15,594, up 589 (3.93%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 162.71 million lots, up 5.57 million lots, and the open interest is 38.90 million lots, up 2.49 million lots [3] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2602): The latest price is 106,900, up 7,560 (7.61%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 3.36 million lots, up 2.37 million lots, and the open interest is 3.36 million lots, down 0.06 million lots [3] - Industrial Silicon (SI2602): The latest price is 8,480, up 50 (0.59%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.29 million lots, up 1.59 million lots, and the open interest is 9.10 million lots, down 0.06 million lots [3] - Polysilicon (PS2602): The latest price is 62,175, up 2,490 (4.17%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 4.47 million lots, up 1.45 million lots, and the open interest is 3.58 million lots, down 0.19 million lots [3] - Rebar (RB2601): The latest price is 3,130, up 35 (1.13%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 6.27 million lots, down 1.26 million lots, and the open interest is 22.66 million lots, down 1.52 million lots [3] - Iron Ore (I2602): The latest price is 793.00, up 12.00 (1.54%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 0.55 million lots, down 0.03 million lots, and the open interest is 7.18 million lots, down 0.02 million lots [3] - Manganese Silicon (SM2602): The latest price is 5,744, up 2 (0.03%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 1.65 million lots, up 0.06 million lots, and the open interest is 2.96 million lots, down 0.09 million lots [3] - Silicon Iron (SF2602): The latest price is 5,428, up 50 (0.93%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 5.39 million lots, up 0.50 million lots, and the open interest is 3.79 million lots, up 0.22 million lots [3] - Glass (FG2602): The latest price is 1,013, up 17 (1.71%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 2.90 million lots, up 0.59 million lots, and the open interest is 4.11 million lots, up 0.05 million lots [3] Group 5: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels are determined by the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Implied Volatility - The implied volatility reflects the market's expectation of the future volatility of the underlying asset [6] Group 6: Strategy Recommendations Copper Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [7] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value returns [7] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [7] Aluminum Options - Directional Strategy: None [9] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [9] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [9] Zinc Options - Directional Strategy: None [9] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [9] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [9] Nickel Options - Directional Strategy: None [10] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [10] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a covered call strategy by holding a long position in the spot market and selling call options [10] Tin Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [10] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value returns [10] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [10] Lithium Carbonate Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [11] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [11] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [11] Silver Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bull spread strategy using call options to obtain directional returns [12] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [12] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [12] Rebar Options - Directional Strategy: None [13] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [13] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a covered call strategy by holding a long position in the spot market and selling call options [13] Iron Ore Options - Directional Strategy: None [13] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [13] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a long collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [13] Manganese Silicon Options - Directional Strategy: None [14] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value returns [14] - Spot Hedging Strategy: None [14] Industrial Silicon Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy using put options to obtain directional returns [14] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value and directional returns [14] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a spot collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [14] Glass Options - Directional Strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy using put options to obtain directional returns [15] - Volatility Strategy: Construct a short volatility strategy using put and call options to obtain time value [15] - Spot Hedging Strategy: Construct a long collar strategy by holding a long position in the spot market, buying put options, and selling out-of-the-money call options [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows a mixed trend, with oilseeds and oils showing a weak and volatile pattern, agricultural by - products maintaining a volatile market, soft commodities like sugar slightly fluctuating, cotton showing a relatively strong consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch showing a narrow - range bullish consolidation [2]. - It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple agricultural product futures contracts show different price movements, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean (A2603) is 4,059, down 41 with a decline of 1.00%, trading volume of 1.16 million lots (down 1.46 million lots), and open interest of 6.00 million lots (up 0.06 million lots) [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - PCR - The PCR indicators of various option varieties are presented. For instance, the trading volume PCR of soybean is 0.75 (down 0.17), and the open interest PCR is 0.99 (unchanged). These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning points of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option varieties are given. For example, the pressure point of soybean (A2603) is 4,200 with an offset of 0, and the support point is 4,000 with an offset of 0 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of multiple option varieties are provided. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean is 10.31%, the weighted implied volatility is 11.04% (down 1.06%), and the historical average is 12.69% [6]. 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean**: - Fundamental analysis shows that Brazilian soybean planting is nearly completed, with changes in import costs and crushing margins. The market shows a weak pattern with pressure above. - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is around the historical average, the open interest PCR suggests a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 4200 and 4000 respectively. - Strategies include constructing a neutral short call + put option combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Palm oil**: - The domestic palm oil market price is down, with weak fundamentals. The market shows a pattern of upward rebound with pressure above. - Option factor research shows that the implied volatility is below the historical average, the open interest PCR suggests a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 9000 and 8200 respectively. - Strategies include a bearish spread strategy for directional trading, a short bearish call + put option combination for volatility trading, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: - The price of peanuts is at a low level, with slow sales in the producing areas. The market shows a pattern of short - term bullishness followed by a rapid decline. - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR suggests pressure above, and the pressure and support levels are 9000 and 7700 respectively. - A long collar strategy is recommended for spot hedging [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig**: - The supply of pigs has a limited increase, and the demand has increased. The market shows a weak bearish pattern with pressure above. - Option factor research shows that the implied volatility is at the historical average, the open interest PCR suggests a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 13000 and 11000 respectively. - Strategies include a short bearish call + put option combination for volatility trading and a covered call strategy for spot [10]. - **Egg**: - The inventory of laying hens is at a certain level. The market shows a pattern of upward rebound, large - scale oscillation, and then a rapid decline with pressure above. - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is at a high level, the open interest PCR suggests a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 3150 and 3100 respectively. - A short bearish call + put option combination is recommended for volatility trading [11]. - **Apple**: - The sales in some apple - producing areas are slow. The market shows a pattern of continuous warming up, rising, and high - level oscillation with pressure above. - Option factor research shows that the implied volatility is above the historical average, the open interest PCR suggests a bullish market with support below, and the pressure and support levels are 10600 and 8500 respectively. - Strategies include a short bullish call + put option combination for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: - The jujube market price is stable, with increased sales in the off - season. The market shows a weak bearish pattern with pressure above. - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is above the historical average, the open interest PCR suggests a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 9800 and 9000 respectively. - Strategies include a short bearish wide - straddle option combination for volatility trading and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: - The ICE sugar futures are in a low - level oscillation. The market shows a weak bearish pattern with pressure above. - Option factor research shows that the implied volatility is at a low level, the open interest PCR suggests a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 5500 and 5400 respectively. - Strategies include a short bearish call + put option combination for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: - The cotton production is expected to increase, with some hedging pressure on the market. The market shows a pattern of short - term bullishness followed by a decline. - Option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is at a low level, the open interest PCR suggests a weak market, and the pressure and support levels are 14000 and 13400 respectively. - Strategies include a short neutral call + put option combination for volatility trading and a long collar strategy for spot [13]. 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn**: - The grain sales progress in the main producing areas is stable, but the demand is not optimistic. The market shows a pattern of rebound with support below. - Option factor research shows that the implied volatility is at a low level, the open interest PCR suggests a strengthening market, and the pressure and support levels are 2140 and 2000 respectively. - A short neutral call + put option combination is recommended for volatility trading [13]. - **Starch**: - The starch market shows a certain pattern. The option factor research indicates that the implied volatility is at a certain level, and the pressure and support levels are analyzed. Specific strategies are not detailed in a unique way compared to the general framework [13]. 3.6 Option Charts - Multiple option charts for different agricultural products are presented, including price trend charts, trading volume and open interest charts, PCR charts, implied volatility charts, historical volatility cone charts, and pressure and support level charts, which visually show the market conditions of various agricultural product options [15][34][54] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For selected varieties in each sector, the report provides option strategies and suggestions based on the analysis of the underlying asset market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [10]. - The general strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 427, with a price increase of 3 and a price change percentage of 0.73%, trading volume of 9.47 million lots, volume change of 4.62 million lots, open interest of 3.91 million lots, and open interest change of 0.45 million lots [5]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The report shows the trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties. For instance, the trading volume PCR of crude oil is 0.88, with a change of 0.05, and the open interest PCR is 0.73, with a change of - 0.05 [6]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - It provides the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interests, and maximum put option open interests of various option varieties. For example, the pressure point of crude oil is 540 with an offset of 0, and the support point is 400 with an offset of - 40 [7]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report lists the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.75%, and the weighted implied volatility is 27.19% with a change of 0.34% [8]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions for Different Varieties 3.5.1 Energy Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The demand of US refineries has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent decline in oil prices, shale oil production has changed little. Refineries have strengthened the diesel output rate due to arbitrage demand, and the overall on - balance - sheet inventory remains healthy. OPEC's short - term supply is flat, Libya's exports have recovered rapidly, CPC Terminal's exports remain weak, and Russia's exports are not hindered. The crude oil market showed a weak trend in December after a rebound in November [9]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates below the average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.70, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 540 and the support point is 430 [9]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional gains, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [9]. 3.5.2 Energy Options: LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The number of LPG warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week. The supply side has seen a slight increase in the arrival volume, and port inventory has accumulated. On the chemical demand side, the start - up rate of PDH has increased this week, but there are rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand is weakening. The LPG market showed a weak and volatile downward trend in December [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuates around the average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 4500 and the support point is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional gains, and dynamically adjust the positions to keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Last week's inventory was 123.44 million tons, a decrease of 11.5 million tons from the previous period. The inventory of production enterprises is 35.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons month - on - month, and at a low level year - on - year. The methanol market showed a weak trend with a rebound and then a decline [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average, the option open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak market, and the pressure point is 2300 and the support point is 2000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options for directional gains; construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and keep the delta short; construct a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11]. 3.5.4 Other Varieties - Similar analysis and strategy recommendations are provided for other varieties such as ethylene glycol, PVC, rubber, PTA, caustic soda, soda ash, and urea, including underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [12][13][14][15].

有色金属日报 2025-12-18 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 白银价格创新高，铜价上扬，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 1.06%至 10742 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 92860 元/吨。LME 铜库存增加 325 至 166925 吨，注销仓单比例抬升，Cash/3M 小幅贴水。国内上期所日度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products oscillated at the bottom. The supply - demand structure of rebar was relatively balanced, while hot - rolled coils faced inventory pressure. Steel prices are expected to maintain bottom - range oscillations, and the export license management policy may put short - term pressure on prices but is expected to be gradually digested [2]. - Iron ore prices are estimated to operate within an oscillating range. Supply shows an increasing trend in overseas shipments, while demand has declined with a drop in daily pig iron production. The overall inventory is rising, and the impact of the export license management policy needs further observation [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the report remains relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. Future market trends will be led by the direction of the black sector and cost increases due to factors such as manganese ore and electricity prices [9][10]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate following the market, with short - term rebounds after touching support levels. The supply reduction has encountered a bottleneck, and demand is weakening [13]. - Polysilicon prices saw a significant increase yesterday. Although production is expected to decline in December, the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to alleviate. The market shows a differentiation between expectations and reality, and short - term fluctuations are expected to increase [16]. - The float glass market maintains a weak supply - demand balance, and prices are expected to show narrow - range oscillations in the short term due to high inventory and weak demand [19]. - Soda ash prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term due to increasing supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to enterprise maintenance schedules and inventory changes [21]. 3. Summary by Categories Steel Products Rebar - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.097%) compared to the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 57057 tons, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 10413 lots to 1.604729 million lots. The Tianjin aggregate price was 3160 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregate price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: This week, rebar production decreased significantly, inventory continued to decline, and the supply - demand structure was relatively balanced, showing a neutral - stable performance [2]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Information**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3245 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%). The registered warehouse receipts were 103404 tons, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 6813 lots to 1.199948 million lots. The Lecong and Shanghai aggregate prices were unchanged [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, apparent demand slightly decreased, and inventory reduction became more difficult. Factory inventory has shown a phased accumulation this week [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 768.00 yuan/ton, up 0.92% (+7.00). The open interest increased by 9427 lots to 489,000 lots. The weighted open interest was 884,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 67.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 8.13% [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to increase. The daily pig iron production fell below 2.292 million tons. Port inventory continued to rise, and steel mill inventory was at a low level. Iron ore prices are estimated to operate within an oscillating range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On December 17, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose 0.38% to close at 5758 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) rose 1.17% to close at 5546 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 54 yuan/ton over the futures [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The report is relatively optimistic about the black sector and domestic policies. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon will be affected by the direction of the black sector and cost increases caused by factors such as manganese ore and electricity prices [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon was 8470 yuan/ton, up 1.26% (+105). The weighted open interest decreased by 6191 lots to 425,093 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 730 yuan/ton for the main contract; the 421 spot price was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 380 yuan/ton after conversion [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon price rebounded slightly after touching the support level. Supply reduction has encountered a bottleneck, and demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate following the market [13]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 61,595 yuan/ton, up 5.11% (+2995). The weighted open interest decreased by 1463 lots to 275,506 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material were unchanged, with a basis of - 9295 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The polysilicon price rose by over 5% yesterday. Although production is expected to decline in December, the pressure of inventory accumulation before the Spring Festival is difficult to alleviate. The market shows a differentiation between expectations and reality, and short - term fluctuations are expected to increase [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main contract of glass closed at 1038 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged. The North China large - plate price was 1040 yuan, and the Central China price was 1080 yuan, both unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.215 million boxes (- 2.04%) to 58.227 million boxes. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,888 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 23,121 lots [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply side saw some production lines cold - repaired, and daily melting volume declined, but high inventory and weak terminal demand restricted upward price movement. The market is expected to show narrow - range oscillations in the short term [19]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1170 yuan/ton on Wednesday afternoon, unchanged. The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, down 6 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 443,000 tons (- 2.04%) to 1.4943 million tons, with heavy - soda and light - soda inventories both decreasing [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises and the expected release of new capacity in Alxa, supply pressure is increasing. Demand remains weak, and prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure in the short term [21].

贵金属日报 2025-12-18 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.53 %，报 982.48 元/克，沪银涨 3.93 %，报 15594.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4371.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 66.44 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.16%，美元指数报 98.38 ； 昨日美联储理事沃勒发表讲话，总体基调偏鸽派。他认为就业市场疲软，降息有助于改善就业 前景。而通胀在未来几个月将有所下降，美联储仅凭通胀前景缓和即可进行降息操作。 美国劳动力市场表现疲软，美国 11 月新增非农就业人口数为 6.4 万人，高于预期的 5 万人， 但十月份新增非农就业数据则录得 10.5 万人的下跌。 从 10 月和 11 月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增 就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。总体就业格局从分项来看表现疲乏，符合 鲍威尔所说的劳动力市场具备风险的情况：建筑业新增就业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The import cost of soybeans may have reached its bottom, but the upside potential requires a larger - scale production reduction. Domestic soybean and soybean meal are expected to trade in a range. [3] - Palm oil's short - term inventory build - up may reverse in Q4 and Q1 next year. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] - The global sugar supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the international sugar price may lack significant upward momentum until Q1 next year. Domestic sugar prices are recommended for short - term observation. [10] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure. [13] - The near - term egg futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] - The near - term hog futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19] 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans closed lower. Domestic soybean meal spot prices fell slightly on Wednesday. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 2.0445 million tons. Brazilian and Argentine main growing areas are expected to have more rainfall. The global soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is still high. [2] - **Strategy**: Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high but are entering the de - stocking season. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. [3] Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production in the first ten days of December increased by 6.87% month - on - month and decreased by 2.97% in the first 15 days. December's first 15 - day exports decreased by 15.89% - 16.37%. Malaysia set the January palm oil reference price at 3946.17 ringgit per ton with an export tax rate of 9.5%. Domestic oils temporarily stopped falling on Wednesday. [5] - **Strategy**: This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia exceeded expectations, and export data is poor. However, the inventory build - up may reverse. It's recommended to observe high - frequency data for short - term operations. [7] Sugar - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly volatile. Brazilian mid - southern sugar production in the second half of November decreased year - on - year. Indian sugar production as of December 15 increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season and decrease in the 2026/27 season. [9] - **Strategy**: The new season's major sugar - producing countries are expected to increase production, and the global sugar market has shifted to a surplus. Domestic sugar prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term observation is recommended. [10] Cotton - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices were narrowly volatile. As of December 12, the spinning mill's operating rate was 65.5%. The 2025/26 global cotton production is estimated to be 26.08 million tons. [12] - **Strategy**: The downstream demand is not bad, and the previous price decline has digested the negative impact of a domestic bumper harvest. Due to unconfirmed news and hedging pressure, Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend. [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Most egg prices in the country were stable yesterday, with a few areas rising. The supply is stable, and the market sales are okay. It's expected that most egg prices will be stable in the short term, with a few areas slightly stronger. [15] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may squeeze the premium, and the long - term should pay attention to the upper pressure. [16] Hogs - **Market Information**: Domestic hog prices mainly rose yesterday, with some areas stable or slightly falling. Some farmers are still reluctant to sell, and the demand for large hogs has increased after the temperature drop. [18] - **Strategy**: The near - term futures may have limited upside, and the long - term should pay attention to the lower support. [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. - For national debt, in the short term, the bond market is expected to fluctuate under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after over - decline [6]. - For precious metals, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, the prices of copper, aluminum, etc. are expected to be relatively stable or have upward potential due to factors such as supply - demand structure and macro - policies, while zinc, lead, etc. may face some downward pressure [11][13][16]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation, and the price of iron ore is estimated to run within an oscillation range [33][35]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be short - term operated with a neutral - to - long idea, and oil prices are recommended to be traded with a low - buy and high - sell strategy [53][57]. - For agricultural products, the prices of different products such as pigs, eggs, and beans are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationship and seasonal factors, presenting different trends and investment suggestions [81][84][86]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The A500ETF had a huge trading volume of nearly 53 billion yuan, three times that of the CSI 300ETF. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. SpaceX entered the pre - IPO regulatory quiet period [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the end of the year, some funds cash in on profits, and the market faces certain uncertainties. But in the long - term, the policy - supported attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the strategy is to go long on dips [4]. National Debt - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The national general public budget revenue from January to November was 20.0516 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The central bank conducted 46.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 143 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the production side was stable, but the service industry was weak, and the demand side needed to be strengthened. The expectation of interest rate cuts is expected to boost the bond market sentiment. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 0.53% to 982.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.93% to 15,594 yuan/kilogram. The US non - farm payroll data was weak, and the Fed governor's speech was dovish [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The weak non - farm payroll data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards silver [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The silver price hit a new high, and the copper price rose. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic futures warehouse receipts decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The liquidity expectation is marginally relaxed, and the supply of copper ore is tight. The short - term copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts continued to increase, and the aluminum price rose. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the spot was at a discount [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global aluminum inventory is decreasing, and the aluminum price is strongly supported. It is expected to rise after oscillation [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price fell, the zinc ore inventory decreased, and the LME zinc inventory slowly increased. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and the import was at a loss [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory decreased, and the domestic spot tightened. After the Fed's meeting, the zinc price may give back some gains [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell, the lead ore inventory was basically flat, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to run weakly in a wide range in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price weakened [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose. The supply side had problems such as insufficient raw materials, and the demand side was affected by high prices. The inventory increased [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate price rose. The MMLC battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern repair expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price rose. The domestic spot was at a premium, and the overseas price fell. The futures inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to oscillate downward, and the alumina production capacity is surplus. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume and open interest decreased, and the inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is firm, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [30]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The rebar price rose slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price fell slightly. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increased [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The terminal demand is weak, and the steel price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The export license policy may suppress the price in the short term [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price rose, and the inventory increased [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore increased, and the demand decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price was flat, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash price was flat, and the inventory decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance and is expected to oscillate narrowly. The soda ash price is expected to decline under pressure [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price rose. The manganese silicon was at a premium, and the ferrosilicon was at a premium [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly led by the black sector and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the manganese ore and electricity price [44]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon price rose, and the polysilicon price rose. The inventory of industrial silicon decreased, and the inventory of polysilicon increased [45][47]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industrial silicon supply and demand weakened marginally, and the polysilicon supply decreased and the demand was weak. Both are expected to fluctuate with the market [46][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated and rose. The inventory was low, and the demand for winter storage was positive. The tire enterprise's operating rate was different [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to operate short - term with a neutral - to - long idea and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price fell, and the refined oil prices had different changes. The gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, and the fuel oil inventory increased [54][56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is not recommended to be overly shorted in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [57]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol had different changes, and the futures price rose. The MTO profit was negative [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol price is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea were stable, and the futures price rose. The inventory decreased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea supply decreased and the demand increased. It is recommended to go long at low prices [61]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene increased, and the demand had different changes [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long at present [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price rose. The cost was stable, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [66]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply decreased, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol supply and demand need to be improved by reducing production. Pay attention to the risk of price rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price rose. The supply was stable, and the demand decreased. The inventory decreased slightly [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA supply is expected to increase, and the demand will decrease. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene price rose. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene inventory is expected to increase slightly. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand decreased. The inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is under pressure, and it is recommended to go short on rallies for the LL1 - 5 spread [76]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price fell. The supply increased slightly, and the demand increased slightly. The inventory decreased [77]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP supply and demand are weak, and the price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [78]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price rose. Some farmers held back sales, and the demand for large pigs increased [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The pig price may rebound in the short term, but the long - term supply is high. It is recommended to short after the rebound and long the far - month contract [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply was stable, and the demand was different in different regions [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to squeeze the premium in the near - month and pay attention to the pressure in the far - month [84]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price fell. The domestic soybean meal price fell slightly, and the inventory decreased [85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The soybean import cost has a bottom, and the soybean meal price is expected to oscillate [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil production and export data were different. The domestic oil price stopped falling [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The palm oil supply may reverse in the future. It is recommended to operate based on high - frequency data [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar price oscillated weakly. The production data of major sugar - producing countries were different [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton price oscillated narrowly. The spot price rose, and the inventory increased [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is unlikely to have a unilateral trend due to uncertain policies and hedging pressure [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support willingness [1]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With port inventory depletion and high expected imports and potential port olefin plant maintenance, the fundamentals face pressure, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading [2][3]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. With improving demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, and a seasonal decline in supply, the overall supply - demand situation is improving. It is expected to bottom out in an oscillatory manner, and a low - price long - position strategy is recommended [5][6][7]. - For rubber, a neutral - bullish short - term trading strategy is suggested, and a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [9][10]. - For PVC, the industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [10][12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [13][14]. - For polyethylene, the PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. A strategy of narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies is recommended [16][17]. - For polypropylene, in a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [18][19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply may increase and demand may decline in the future. A long - position strategy on expected trading on dips is recommended [23][24]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand situation. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Inventory Changes**: Diesel inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 3.19 million barrels, a 10.91% decline; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 13.79 million barrels, a 12.62% increase; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.93 million barrels, a 3.88% increase. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.26 million barrels to 6.96 million barrels, a 3.63% decline [1]. - **Price Changes**: INE main crude oil futures fell 5.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.27% decline, to 426.70 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 20.00 yuan/ton, a 0.84% increase, to 2415.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil fell 36.00 yuan/ton, a 1.22% decline, to 2905.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu decreased by 3 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 10 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 2156 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was - 217 yuan [2]. - **Market Situation**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market consolidates. Port inventory is depleted, but with high expected imports and potential port olefin plant maintenance, the fundamentals face pressure [3]. Urea - **Price Changes**: Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 16 yuan/ton to 1646 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was 24 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Situation**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved due to reserves and compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand situation is improving [6][7]. Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 150 yuan to 14600 yuan; STR20 increased by 20 dollars to 1835 dollars; STR20 mixed increased by 20 dollars to 1830 dollars; butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 350 yuan to 7800 yuan; and cis - polybutadiene in North China increased by 200 yuan to 10500 yuan [9][10]. - **Market Situation**: The market sentiment is positive, and prices are oscillating higher. Low inventory and winter - storage demand are bullish factors, but there are also bearish views due to uncertain demand [9]. PVC - **Price Changes**: The PVC05 contract rose 11 yuan to 4680 yuan, and the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 increased by 30 yuan to 4400 yuan/ton. The basis was - 23 yuan (+6 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 127 yuan (-6 yuan) [10]. - **Market Situation**: The industry has low comprehensive profit, high supply, and weak demand. In the short - term, sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, supply exceeds demand [10][12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The basis of pure benzene expanded, and the basis of styrene strengthened [13][14]. - **Market Situation**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral - low with large upward valuation repair space. It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profit before the first quarter of next year [13][14]. Polyethylene - **Price Changes**: The main futures contract fell 64 yuan/ton to 6479 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 10 yuan/ton to 6555 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan (+54 yuan) [16]. - **Market Situation**: The PE valuation has limited downward space, but high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. A strategy of narrowing the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies is recommended [16][17]. Polypropylene - **Price Changes**: The main futures contract fell 2 yuan/ton to 6254 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained unchanged at 6285 yuan/ton. The basis was 31 yuan (+2 yuan) [18]. - **Market Situation**: In a supply - demand weak situation with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation at the cost end changes in the first quarter of next year [18][19]. PX - **Price Changes**: The PX03 contract rose 28 yuan to 6772 yuan, and PX CFR rose 7 dollars to 834 dollars. The basis was 8 yuan (+22 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was 30 yuan (+2 yuan) [21]. - **Market Situation**: PX load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. A long - position strategy on dips is recommended [21][22]. PTA - **Price Changes**: The PTA05 contract rose 16 yuan to 4684 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 15 yuan to 4605 yuan. The basis was - 13 yuan (+3 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was 58 yuan (+8 yuan) [23]. - **Market Situation**: The supply may increase and demand may decline in the future. A long - position strategy on expected trading on dips is recommended [23][24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price Changes**: The EG05 contract fell 30 yuan to 3758 yuan, and the spot price in East China rose 33 yuan to 3667 yuan. The basis was - 25 yuan (-5 yuan), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 78 yuan (+10 yuan) [25]. - **Market Situation**: The industry needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand situation. There is a risk of a rebound due to unexpected maintenance [25][26].