1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term fundamentals of nickel are under significant pressure, and nickel prices may continue to be under pressure. The supply side shows that the price of nickel iron is falling rapidly, the expectation of converting to high - grade nickel matte is increasing, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is further supplemented. On the demand side, there is no increase in market demand, and domestic and foreign inventories are continuously accumulating. From the cost perspective, the price of nickel ore has shown a slight decline. If the price cannot remain stable in the future, it may have a negative feedback effect and drive down downstream prices. It is not recommended to chase short positions. Instead, wait for the nickel iron price to stabilize before further observation. The short - term operating range of Shanghai nickel is expected to be between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of the LME 3 - month nickel contract is expected to be between 13,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight decline this week. In the Philippines, the cost of domestic nickel - iron smelters was in a more severe state of inversion, the demand for ore weakened significantly, and port inventories accumulated significantly. Although the price of Philippine ore did not decline this week, it is expected to be under pressure in the future due to weak terminal demand. In Indonesia, the production of nickel ore has increased significantly recently, the overall supply - demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, and the profit margin of Indonesian iron plants is close to zero, so they have a low acceptance of high - priced ore, and the ore price is expected to decline slightly; the market for hydrometallurgical ore remains relatively dull, and the price is expected to remain stable mainly supported by MHP demand [12]. - **Nickel iron**: Terminal consumption was weak this week, and the negative feedback effect drove the price of high - nickel pig iron to continue to decline. On the demand side, it is currently the traditional off - season for stainless steel demand, terminal consumption is weak, downstream enterprises have high inventories, are cautious in purchasing, and have a strong wait - and - see attitude. On the supply side, the market is bearish, some traders continue to sell at reduced prices, and the market quotation and transaction center of gravity have further declined. In the future, the profit level of nickel iron is already at an absolute low, and the price is expected to change with the ore price [12]. - **Intermediate products**: The short - term supply - demand of MHP remains tight. Driven by the reduction of cobalt export quotas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and strong demand for nickel sulfate, the nickel and cobalt coefficients remain at high levels. High - grade nickel matte plays an obvious supplementary role to MHP, and its coefficient price also remains high. In the future, as the demand for nickel sulfate enters the off - season, the price of intermediate products may loosen [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices continued to fall this week. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%, and the LME nickel quoted at 14,620 US dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75%. Macroscopically, the hawkish stance of Federal Reserve officials combined with the lack of economic data made the market sentiment cautious, and risk assets performed weakly. In the spot market, the overall price was stronger than the futures price, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel increased significantly [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: Nickel prices continued to fall this week. As of November 21, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 114,130 yuan/ton on Friday, a decline of 2.70%; the LME nickel quoted at 14,620 US dollars/ton on Friday, a weekly decline of 1.75% [17]. - **Nickel spot premium and discount**: The spot premium and discount remained stable. As of November 14, the average spot price of Russian nickel had a premium and discount of 500 yuan/ton compared to the nearby contract, the same as last week. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel was reported at 4,000 - 4,400 yuan/ton, with the average price increasing by 300 yuan/ton compared to last week [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: The price of nickel iron continued to be weak. As of November 21, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was reported at 882 - 900 yuan per nickel point, with the average price decreasing by 15 yuan per nickel point compared to the same period last week. The price of nickel sulfate gradually weakened. As of November 21, the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was reported at 27,980 - 28,180 yuan/ton, with the average price decreasing by 310 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week [24]. 3.3 Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight decline. On November 21, the delivered price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at 52.5 US dollars per wet ton, a decrease of 0.2 US dollars per wet ton compared to last week; the delivered price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at 23 US dollars per wet ton, the same as last week; the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore produced in the Philippines was reported at 57 US dollars per wet ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per wet ton compared to last week [33]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel production was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is related to the production and inventory of stainless steel, as well as the terminal demand of the manufacturing and real estate industries. However, specific demand data and trends are not clearly summarized in the text [49][51]. - **Import and export**: No specific analysis of import and export trends was provided in the text [53]. - **Inventory**: The global visible nickel inventory increased by 761 tons to 306,094 tons this week, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down slightly [57]. - **Cost**: No specific cost - related analysis was provided in the text [58]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: No specific analysis of supply trends was provided in the text [62]. - **Demand**: No specific analysis of demand trends was provided in the text [65]. - **Cost and price**: No specific analysis of cost and price trends was provided in the text [67]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - The global supply and quarterly supply - demand balance of nickel from 2019 to 2025 were predicted. From 2023 to 2025, the overall supply of nickel exceeded demand, and the supply - demand gap showed a certain degree of fluctuation. For example, in 2023, the supply - demand gap was 82,900 tons; in 2024, it was 53,200 tons; and in 2025, it is expected to be 126,600 tons [74].

等待反弹继续做空 白糖周报 2025/11/22 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，本周原糖价格震荡，截至周五ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报14.77美分/磅，较之前一周下跌0.08美分/磅，跌幅0.54%；价 差方面，原糖3-5月差震荡，报0.49美分/磅，较之前一周上涨0.01美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差震荡，报5.6美元/吨，较之前一周上涨0.9美 元/吨；3月合约原白价差震荡，报98美元/吨，较之前一周上涨3美元/吨。国内方面，本周郑糖价格下跌，截至周五郑糖1月合约收盘价报 5353元/吨，较之前一周下跌117元/吨，跌幅2.14%。广西现货报5480元/吨，较之前一周下跌180元/吨；基差走弱，报127元/吨，之前一周 下跌63元/吨；1-5价差震荡，报51元/吨，较之前一周下跌15元/吨；配额外现货进口利润小幅下跌， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global equity market corrections and geopolitical tensions have made the market cautious, leading to significant short - and long - position reductions in Shanghai aluminum and a decline in aluminum prices. However, the relatively low global visible aluminum ingot inventory and supply disruption expectations still strongly support aluminum prices. Despite the downstream moving into the off - season, with price corrections, the domestic inventory accumulation pressure is expected to be low, and aluminum prices may strengthen further after oscillatory adjustments. The operating range of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to be 21,200 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11]. - Inventory & Spot: As of Thursday, the aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; the bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; the aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; the LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week. The domestic East China aluminum ingot spot basis first declined and then rose, and the LME market Cash/3M discount widened to $30.9/ton [11]. - Import & Export: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. Recently, the spot import loss of Shanghai aluminum has narrowed [11]. - Demand: According to SMM research, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises remained stable at 62% this week, showing off - season characteristics. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable, the aluminum cable operating rate rebounded slightly supported by power grid orders, while the operating rates of aluminum plates, strips, profiles, and foils were under pressure, with the overall operating rate being stable but weak [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai aluminum fell 2.3% to 21,340 yuan/ton this week, and LME aluminum fell 1.7% to $2,808/ton. The spread between the first and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum narrowed compared with last week [19][21]. - Spot: The East China spot premium rebounded, while the discounts in South China and Central China narrowed. The LME aluminum Cash/3M discount widened [32][38]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: The primary aluminum smelting profit decreased compared with last week but remained at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory was 613,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last Thursday; bonded area inventory was 62,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from last week; aluminum rod inventory was 152,000 tons, up 2,000 tons from last Thursday; LME global aluminum inventory was 548,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last week and at a low level in the same period of previous years [48][51][57]. 4. Cost Side - Bauxite: Domestic and overseas bauxite prices remained stable [69]. - Alumina: The domestic alumina price decreased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the import price decreased by $1/ton [72]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: The anode price and thermal coal price remained flat compared with last week [76]. 5. Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina output was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons from September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [82]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the monthly industry operating rate remaining stable. The domestic electrolytic aluminum output in October increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic aluminum water ratio rebounded by 1.4% in October and is expected to decline slightly in November. The electrolytic aluminum output of each province in October increased compared with September [85][88][93]. 6. Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: In October, the operating rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates, strips, and foils declined month - on - month; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased month - on - month, while the aluminum rod operating rate declined month - on - month; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [104][107][110]. - Terminal Demand: In November 2025, the production schedules of household air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines all declined compared with the actual production in the same period last year. In October, real estate data remained weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules was expected to decline slightly [114]. 7. Import and Export - Primary Aluminum: In October 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 248,000 tons, up 1.8% month - on - month and 42.2% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to October were 2.205 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.9%. This week, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., with the proportion of imports from Russia dropping to 63% [119][123]. - Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Products: In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [128]. - Recycled Aluminum: In October 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 158,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to October were 1.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [128]. - Bauxite: In October 2025, China's bauxite imports were 13.766 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 71.8%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to October were 170.959 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [131]. - Alumina: In October 2025, China exported 176,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to October were 2.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 54.7% [131].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has been weak recently. Although the downward pressure on prices persists and market risks remain, there is still hope for a positive impact on market sentiment from a series of macro - events in December. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for opportunities to rebound rather than short - selling. Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal and lack a major contradiction, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [15][98] 3. Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Report 3.1.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 4.03%. Profits in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were - 546, - 682, and - 854 yuan/ton respectively, all in the red. Production costs in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi were 6066, 6142, and 6404 yuan/ton respectively. Weekly manganese silicon output was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year.螺纹钢周产量207.96万吨，环比增加7.96万吨，累计同比下降约2.44%；日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比下降0.6万吨，累计同比增加约3.44%。显性库存为46.96万吨，环比增加1.09万吨，处于同期高位 [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level, production profits continue to be in the red, production is declining, demand is mixed (low - level steel production but high - level iron water production), inventory is at a high level, and the tender volume from HeSteel Group has decreased while the tender price is stable. The manganese silicon futures price showed a weak trend last week, and attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and price [15] 3.1.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5606 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 234 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 4.03%, at a relatively high historical level [20] 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon (excluding depreciation) remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 546 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 682 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, - 854 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of South African, Australian, and Gabonese manganese ores and off - grade metallurgical coke were stable. The estimated immediate production cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6066 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 6142 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi, 6404 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton week - on - week [27][31] - **Manganese Ore Import and Inventory**: In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. As of November 14, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory was 426.3 tons, down 13.4 tons week - on - week. The port inventory of Australian manganese ore and high - grade manganese ore also decreased [34][37] 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 19.69 tons, down 0.26 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was down 1.23 tons year - on - year or 0.15%. HeSteel Group's tender volume in November 2025 was 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month but up 3700 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [45][56] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon was 12.14 tons, up 0.28 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 207.96 tons, up 7.96 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 2.44%. The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 1.3 pct week - on - week [59][62][63] 3.1.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 46.96 tons, up 1.09 tons week - on - week, at a high level compared to the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 36.3 tons, up 1.05 tons week - on - week. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.7 days, down 0.23 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period [70][73][76] 3.1.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the manganese silicon futures price rebounded at the beginning of the week and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 138 yuan/ton or 2.4%. On the daily chart, it broke below the platform since September and was close to the support level of 5600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether it can be supported at this level; otherwise, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [82] Silicon Iron Report 3.2.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level. The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai was - 571, - 577, and - 725 yuan/ton respectively. The weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year [97] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level, production profits continue to be in the red, production has decreased slightly, demand is mixed (high - level hot metal production but weak magnesium metal demand), inventory is at a relatively high level, and the tender volume and price from HeSteel Group have decreased. The silicon iron futures price showed a weak trend last week, remaining in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals of silicon iron have no obvious contradictions or driving forces, and its operability is relatively low [98] 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of November 21, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures price was 5472 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was - 22 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was - 0.40%, at a low historical level [103] 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of November 21, 2025, the estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was - 571 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, - 577 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, - 725 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [108] - **Cost**: As of November 21, 2025, the prices of silica in the northwest region and semi - coke small materials were stable. The estimated production cost of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5771 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia, 5707 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai, 5895 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week [111][114] 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of November 21, 2025, the weekly output of silicon iron was 10.83 tons, down 0.08 tons week - on - week, but cumulative output was up about 0.77% year - on - year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was up 5.52 tons year - on - year or 1.24%. HeSteel Group's tender volume of 75B silicon iron alloy in November 2025 was 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month but up 1216 tons year - on - year, and the tender price was 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [119][125] - **Demand**: As of November 21, 2025, the daily average hot metal output was 236.28 tons, down 0.6 tons week - on - week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. In October 2025, the national crude steel output was 72 million tons, down 1.5 million tons month - on - month and 9.9 million tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 70.19 tons, down 2.55 tons year - on - year or 3.51%. As of November 21, 2025, the price of magnesium metal in Fugu area was 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The cumulative export volume of silicon iron from January to October 2025 was 33.67 tons, down 3.1 tons year - on - year or 8.42%. The estimated immediate export profit of 75B silicon iron was at a relatively low level [128][131][134] 3.2.5 Inventory - As of November 21, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of silicon iron was 11.78 tons, down 0.88 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level compared to the same period. In October, the average available days of steel mill inventory were 15.67 days, up 0.15 days month - on - month, and the inventory continued to increase slightly but remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142][145] 3.2.6 Graphical Trends - Last week, the silicon iron futures price rose sharply at the beginning of the week but failed to break the downward trend and then declined rapidly, with a weekly decline of 56 yuan/ton or 1.02%. On the daily chart, it remained in the range of 5400 - 5800 yuan/ton (the upper limit of the recent range has narrowed to 5650 yuan/ton). The price briefly broke below 5400 yuan/ton and then rebounded. The current price trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the support at 5400 yuan/ton [151]

Report Title - "Waiting for the Price Consolidation to Complete - Precious Metals Weekly Report (2025/11/22)" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy significantly rebounded after the key voting members' speeches on Friday, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. However, further driving forces will be concentrated in December. It is recommended to keep the bottom position and wait and see for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 896 - 940 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Weekly Market Review**: This week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and weak trend. By the close of Friday's daytime session, Shanghai gold fell 2.75% to 926.94 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 5.43% to 11680.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.53% to 4062.80 US dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.47% to 49.66 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index rose 0.87% to 100.15 [11] - **Influence Factors**: In the first half of the week, precious metal prices were weak due to the Fed's hawkish meeting minutes and better - than - expected September non - farm payroll data. After the release of the meeting minutes and the non - farm report, the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the December FOMC meeting was priced down to 30%. On Friday, several Fed voting members' "dovish rescue" supported precious metal prices, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the December meeting was priced up to 70% [11] - **Inventory Situation**: The inventories of domestic and overseas silver continued to decline. As of November 21, the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver decreased by 50.08 tons to 519.3 tons, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 274.73 tons to 14329.5 tons. The term structure of Shanghai silver has changed, indicating that the domestic silver demand in the fourth quarter remains resilient [11] - **Technical Analysis**: The technical chart of Shanghai gold is weaker than that of Shanghai silver. After breaking below the upward trend line, it has entered a consolidation phase. It is expected that the gold price will mainly consolidate in the short term. The Shanghai silver index was supported after touching the trend line this week. It is expected to complete the consolidation in December and start a new upward trend [13][17] 2. Market Review - **Price and Index Changes**: By the close of Friday's daytime session, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as COMEX gold and silver prices all declined, while the US dollar index rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.06% [29] - **Position Changes**: This week, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 3.06% to 329,000 lots, and the total position of COMEX gold as of October 7 was 486,000 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 0.32% to 710,900 lots, and the total position of COMEX silver as of October 7 was 167,000 lots. As of the October 7 reporting period, the net positions of COMEX gold and silver managed funds both declined [31][33][35] - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 21, the total holding of gold ETFs within the LSEG statistical range was 2313 tons, and the total holding of overseas silver ETFs was 28019.4 tons [40] 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **US Treasury Yield Curve**: The report presents the spreads between the 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds, as well as the yields of short - term US Treasury bonds [50] - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: It shows the US federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [53] - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The weekly changes in the Fed's balance sheet are detailed, including the changes in assets and liabilities [55] 4. Macroeconomic Data - **US CPI & PCE**: In September, the year - on - year value of the US CPI was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%. The month - on - month value was 0.3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.4%. The year - on - year value of the core CPI was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% [62] - **US Employment Situation**: As of the week of November 15, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 228,000 [65] - **US PMI & PPI**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50 [68] - **US New Home Data**: In August, the annualized number of new home sales in the US was 800,000, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000. The annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million, and the annualized value of new home starts was 1.307 million [71] 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report shows the basis between gold TD and SHFE gold [74] - **Silver Basis**: It presents the basis between silver TD and SHFE silver [77] - **Domestic and Overseas Spreads of Gold and Silver**: The domestic and overseas spreads of gold and silver are also provided [80] 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventory**: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented, showing a downward trend [88][90] - **Gold Inventory**: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are also shown [93]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report After a period of continuous rise, coupled with the adjustment of US stocks overseas, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important News**: Diplomatic tensions between China and Japan, signs of a sell - off in US stocks, potential Fed rate cuts, and possible relaxation of US restrictions on Nvidia's chip sales to China [10]. - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October 2025, industrial added value grew 4.9% year - on - year, retail sales 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment fell 1.7%. Manufacturing PMI was 49.0, lower than expected. M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and social financing increment decreased. Exports in US dollars decreased, and housing prices fell [10]. - **Interest Rates and Credit Environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate diverged, credit spreads narrowed, and liquidity remained loose [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: Hold a small number of IM long positions in the long - term due to low - to - medium valuation and long - term discount. Hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new interest - rate cut cycle may benefit high - dividend assets [12]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: Major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and others all declined, with the decline ranging from 2.72% (Shanghai 50) to 6.15% (ChiNext Index) [14]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: All futures contracts, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed declines, with the decline rate varying from 2.49% (IH current month) to 5.70% (IC next month) [15]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic Indicators**: The Q3 2025 GDP real growth rate was 4.8%. In October, manufacturing PMI was 49.0, consumption growth was 2.9%, exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7%. Manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure investment growth rates continued to decline [32][35][38]. - **Corporate Earnings**: In the 2025 third - quarter report, the year - on - year revenue growth rate was 1.24%, and the net profit growth rate was 3.89%, both showing an upward trend compared to the semi - annual report [41]. 4. Interest Rates and Credit Environment - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed different trends. DR007, 7 - day reverse - repurchase rate, and reverse - repurchase volume were presented. There were also comparisons of Sino - US 10 - year bond rates and spreads [44][47][49]. - **Credit Environment**: In October 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and the social financing increment decreased, mainly due to the front - loading of government bond issuance and a decrease in household loans [55]. 5. Fundamentals - **Fund Inflows**: This week, about 220.97 billion shares of equity - oriented funds were newly established, and the new margin trading balance was - 3.18 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching a record high of 24,743.61 billion yuan [61][64]. - **Fund Outflows**: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 74.35 billion yuan, and the number of IPO approvals was 2 [67]. 6. Valuation - **Valuation Indicators**: The price - to - earnings ratio (TTM) of Shanghai 50 was 11.88, CSI 300 was 13.87, CSI 500 was 31.11, and CSI 1000 was 44.77. The price - to - book ratio (LF) of Shanghai 50 was 1.30, CSI 300 was 1.44, CSI 500 was 2.12, and CSI 1000 was 2.35 [71].

陈逸 （联系人） 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0023202 多重利空共振， 玻璃持续探底 玻璃周报 从业资格号：F03137504 郎志杰（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F3030112 2025/11/22 产业链示意图 上游 天然碱矿 （天然碱法） 原盐、石灰石 （氨碱法） 原盐、合成氨 （联碱法） 燃料：动力 煤、天然气 中游 轻碱 重碱 氯化铵 下游 日用玻璃 洗涤剂 食品行业 无机盐 平板玻璃 农用氮肥 房地产——约88% 汽车——约6% 光伏——约1% 其他 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 周度评估及策略推荐 | 玻璃基本面评估 | 估值 | | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 成本利润 | 产量 | 需求 | 玻璃库存 | 房地产 | | 数据 | 101 | 天然气：-206.84 煤炭：25.79 石油焦：8.52 | 111.02万吨 | 深加工订单：9.9日 | 6330.3万重箱 | ...

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 美汽油裂差高位震荡， 纯苯美-韩价差新高 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/11/22 CONTENTS 目录 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，宏观情绪转强，资本市场及大宗商品止跌反弹。纯苯-石脑油（BZN价差）上涨，EB非一体化 装置利润上涨，整体估值中性偏低。苯乙烯供应端压力较大，需求端进入季节性旺季尾声，下游三S开工出现回落，港口库存高 位震荡。短期地缘导致原油价格中枢上移，成本端原油或将驱动苯乙烯价格震荡上行。但中长期供需双弱背景下，苯乙烯价格 或将保持下降趋势。美国汽油裂解价差高位盘整，纯苯美-韩价差强势上行，创同期新高。 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603）：参考整荡区间（5400-5700）；苯乙烯(EB2601)：参考震荡区间（6400-6700）。 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场 ...

港口库存高位回落， 盘面跌幅收窄 甲醇周报 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 2025/11/22 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 05 需求端 02 期现市场 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 周度评估及策略推荐 | 2025 | 期初库存 | 产 量 | 进口量 | 总供应量 | 供应同比 | 国内消费量 | 出口量 | 总需求量 | 需求同比 | 期末库存 | 供需差 | 累计供需差 | 库存 /消费 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 月 | 155 | 850 | 9 5 | 947 | 4 46% . | 955 | 1 | 956 | 3 4% . | 122 | (9) | 7 4 | 12 73% . | | 2 月 | 122 | 779 | 5 6 | 835 | -0 11% . | 810 | 0 | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With the weakening of aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction as it is in a slightly oversupplied situation [11]. - PTA's processing fee has slightly recovered, but the upside space is limited without further stimulus. PXN also faces a risk of valuation correction [12]. - For MEG, the supply - demand outlook remains weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies as the inventory build - up needs to be mitigated by reducing the load [13]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations PX - Price: The 01 contract dropped 56 yuan to 6750 yuan last week, while the CFR China spot price rose 7 dollars to 833 dollars [11]. - Supply: China's load was 89.5%, up 2.7% week - on - week; Asia's load was 79.7%, up 1.2%. Some plants restarted, and imports from South Korea to China increased [11]. - Demand: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week due to plant maintenance [11]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up expected in November [11]. - Valuation and cost: PXN was 260 dollars as of November 20, up 3 dollars year - on - year. Aromatics blending expectations weakened [11]. PTA - Price: The 01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 4630 yuan [12]. - Supply: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week because of accidental maintenance in November [12]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week. However, the terminal is gradually entering the off - season [12]. - Inventory: It is expected to enter a phase of inventory reduction [12]. - Profit: Spot processing fee increased 25 yuan to 164 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - Price: The 01 contract declined 114 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 56 yuan to 3885 yuan [13]. - Supply: EG load decreased to 70.8%, down 0.7% week - on - week. There were many accidental plant maintenance events [13]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week, but the terminal is in a downward trend [13]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, but the inventory build - up rate is expected to slow down [13]. - Valuation and cost: Overall valuation is moderately low, but load reduction is needed to slow down inventory build - up [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets PX - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads fluctuated weakly [32]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, but figures are presented for reference [35][39][42]. PTA - Basis and spreads: The basis was at a low level, and monthly spreads strengthened [45]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with relevant figures presented [48][52][55]. MEG - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak [58]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with corresponding figures given [66][69][72]. 3.3 Paraxylene (PX) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity expansions are planned, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton project in the second half of 2025 [79]. - Supply: Accidental plant outages recovered, and the October import volume slightly declined [82][86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up in September [88]. - Cost and profit: PXN was strong, short - process spreads were compressed, and naphtha spreads were strong [92]. - Aromatics blending: Gasoline performance weakened, and the relative value of blending decreased [99][110]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity is being added, like Hailun Petrochemical's 320 - million - ton project in July 2025 [132]. - Supply: Load decreased due to accidental maintenance, and exports are also affected [12][135]. - Inventory: Inventory is expected to decrease in the short - term [12]. - Profit and valuation: Processing fees slightly recovered [141]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity projects are underway, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton project in September 2025 [145]. - Supply: The operating rate decreased, especially for syngas - based plants [148]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and upstream and downstream factory inventories were relatively high [158]. - Cost: Coal prices declined, and ethylene was weak [168]. - Profit: Naphtha - based production profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 3.6 Polyester and End - Markets Polyester - Capacity: New filament plants were put into operation, and capacity continued to grow [184]. - Basis: Staple fiber basis was strong, and bottle chip basis fluctuated [187]. - Supply: The operating rate slightly increased [190]. - Inventory: Filament inventory was at a low level [197]. - Profit: Filament profit recovered [206]. End - Markets - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased, showing a year - on - year decline [210]. - Orders and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased [219]. - Retail and exports: Domestic textile and clothing retail growth recovered, while exports were weak [223]. - US inventory: US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, with a marginal increase [225].