震荡磨底之中 短期低点已现 原油周报 2025/11/22 徐绍祖 （能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 严梓桑 （联系人） 0755-23375123 yanzs@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03149203 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估&策略推荐 02 宏观&地缘 06 原油库存 03 油品价差 07 气象灾害 04 原油供应 05 原油需求 08 另类数据 01 周度评估&策略推荐 行情回顾 图1：WTI主力合约近月走势（$/桶） 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 2025/1/1 2025/1/8 2025/1/15 2025/1/22 2025/1/29 2025/2/5 2025/2/12 2025/2/19 2025/2/26 2025/3/5 2025/3/12 2025/3/19 2025/3/26 2025/4/2 2025/4/9 2025/4/16 2025/4/23 2025/4/30 2025/5/7 2025/5/14 2025/5/21 2025/5/28 2025/6/4 2025/6/1 ...

供给端 期现市场 需求端 利润 库存 降息预期走弱，成 材底部震荡 螺纹钢周报 2025/11/22 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03133652 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应端: 本周螺纹总产量208万吨，环比+3.98%，同比-11.11%，累计产量9967.17万吨，同比-2.44%。长流程产量181万吨，环比+5. 39%，同比-11.81%，短流程产量27万吨，环比-4.63%，同比-6.07%。 本周铁水日均产量为236.28万吨，本周铁水小幅回落。螺纹产量小幅上升，供应端压力较低。利润方面，华东地区螺纹高炉利润维持-31 元/吨附近，高炉利润与上周基本持平；谷电利润为-9元/吨，电炉利润开始恢复。 ◆ 需求端：本周螺纹表需231万吨，前值216万吨，环比+6.9%，同比-1.3%，累计需求9815万吨，同比-5.3%。 本周需求小幅上升，需求表现中性偏弱。 ◆ 进出口：钢坯10月进口3.0万吨。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹社 ...

高空近月或反套 生猪周报 2025/11/22 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价小涨后小落，周初受降温影响，下游加大收购量，养殖端亦有缩量挺价动作，但涨价后出栏积极性提升，猪价小幅反弹 后再度回落，周内屠宰量环比增加，体重继续小幅上升，肥标价差小幅回落；具体看，河南均价周落0.02元至11.7元/公斤，周内最低11.6元/ 公斤，四川均价周涨0.14元至11.3元/公斤，周内最低11.2元/公斤，广东均价周持平于12.36元/公斤；北方出栏进度正常，但南方市场计划完 成度偏慢，加量出猪下可能利空行情，反观需求端因气温偏高，表现始终不温不火，仅局部有零星腌腊出现，预计下周猪价仍以缓慢阴跌为主。 ◆ 供应端：9月官方母猪存栏为4035万头，环比小落0.1%，仍比正常母猪保有量多3.5%，去年以来母猪产能的持续增加，或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The high - yield of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The current situation of inventory accumulation due to large supply in the short - term may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not persist, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains high - yield, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view the market with an oscillatory perspective and turn to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview**: This week, the three major oils showed weak trends. Palm oil was still underweighted by foreign investors, and long positions in other oils also decreased. High - frequency data from palm oil producing areas were average. From November 1st to 15th, Malaysian palm oil yield increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43%, and production grew by 4.09%. High - frequency exports from November 1st to 20th decreased by 14.1% - 20.5%. Rapeseed oil stocks continued to decline due to the shutdown of most coastal oil mills, but the supply from Russia and Australia limited its upside. Soybean oil mainly followed the market's oscillations [11] - **International Oils**: Based on normal production levels and international demand in previous years, palm oil will enter a rapid de - stocking phase in the first quarter of next year. However, this year's production in Malaysia and Indonesia is larger than the same period last year, and the first quarter is a low - demand season. If Southeast Asian palm oil production remains high, the expected de - stocking may reverse [11] - **Domestic Oils**: This week, the spot basis of domestic oils was stable. Total domestic oil stocks continued to decline, with sufficient supply. As soybean crushing decreased due to lower arrivals, soybean oil production declined. Rapeseed oil stocks continued to decline due to low imports, and palm oil stocks remained stable due to low imports [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The high - yield of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia suppresses the palm oil market. The short - term inventory accumulation due to large supply may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high - yield does not persist, the de - stocking time may come earlier. However, if Indonesia maintains high - yield, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to view the market with an oscillatory perspective and turn to a bullish mindset if there are signals of production decline [11][12][13] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presents the basis and seasonal basis charts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, including the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil, the 01 contract price, and the spot price of different regions, to show the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][20][22][24] 3. Supply Side - **Production and Exports**: The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil to reflect the supply situation of different oils [27][28][29][31] - **Weather in Palm - producing Areas**: The report presents the weighted precipitation charts of Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas and the NINO 3.4 index chart, which may affect palm oil production [33][34] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Total Inventory**: The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils [40] - **Inventory of Different Oils**: It includes the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and major oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the coastal spot average crushing profit and commercial inventory of rapeseed oil, and the palm oil inventory in Malaysia and Indonesia [43][45][46][48] 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil [50][52] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: It includes the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil and the import cost price chart of rapeseed [54] 6. Demand Side - **Oil Transactions**: The report shows the cumulative transaction volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [57] - **Biodiesel Profit**: It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil) to reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally reduced, with total production now almost equal to total demand. Supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, suggesting the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. - Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a multi - year high, and soybean meal inventory is large, pressuring crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Soybeans**: This week, US soybeans reached the cost level of 1170 cents per bushel and then pulled back. The global soybean supply reduction is limited, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio remains high. Brazilian soybean premium quotes declined slightly this week, reducing the cost of imported soybeans in China. As of November 21, the January US soybean contract was at 1126.5 cents per bushel, and the Brazilian January premium was 145 cents per bushel. The November USDA forecast further reduced the global new - crop soybean production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to cuts in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the USDA estimates that the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are nearly equal, and the supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean stock - to - use ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing a bottom support but not enough for a highly profitable CBOT soybean planting market [9]. - **Domestic Double - Meal**: This week, the domestic soybean meal spot price fluctuated, and the basis also fluctuated. The futures market followed cost changes, and the oil mills' crushing margins on the futures market declined. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Feed companies' inventory days were 7.98 days, slightly lower than the same period last year and down 0.25 days from the previous period. As of November 18, institutional statistics showed 9.2 million tons of soybean purchases in August, 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, and 6.51 million tons in November. Current purchase progress indicates that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline. Coupled with the high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The unilateral strategy for soybean meal is to expect range - bound trading [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Provided historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong from 2021 - 2025 [17][18]. - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Provided historical data charts of the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract and the rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21]. - **Spreads**: Provided historical data charts of various spreads, such as the soybean meal 01 - 05 spread, 03 - 05 spread, 11 - 1 spread, and soybean meal 01 - rapeseed meal 01 spread [22][23]. - **Fund Positions**: Provided historical data charts of the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Provided historical data charts of US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate from 2021 - 2025 [31][32]. - **Weather Conditions**: Provided precipitation forecasts for Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing regions until November 29, 2025, and analyzed the possible occurrence of La Nina from October 2025 to January 2026 and its impact on climate [34][36]. - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Provided historical data charts of the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed with China in the current marketing year, the sales completion rate of US soybeans in the current year, the total amount of US soybean export contracts signed in the current market year, and the cumulative value of US soybean exports to China in the current market year [48][49]. - **China's Oilseed Imports**: Provided historical data charts of monthly soybean and rapeseed imports and forecasts in China from 2021 - 2025 [51][52]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing**: Provided historical data charts of the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills in China [53][54]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Provided historical data charts of soybean port inventory and the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in China from 2021 - 2025 [57][58]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Provided historical data charts of the soybean meal inventory and forecasts of coastal major oil mills and the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal major oil mills in China from 2021 - 2025 [60][61]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Provided historical data charts of the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the crushing profit of imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2021 - 2025 [62][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Soybean Meal Demand**: Provided historical data charts of the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills in the crop year and the apparent consumption of soybean meal in China [65]. - **Breeding Profit**: Provided historical data charts of the average profit per head of self - bred and self - raised pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2021 - 2025 [66][67].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 库存结构性矛盾，矿价震荡运行 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/22 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 ◆ 供应：全球铁矿石发运总量3516.4万吨，环比增加447.4万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2908.7万吨，环比增加360.1万吨。澳洲发运量2050.4 万吨，环比增加239.6万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1873.0万吨，环比增加339.0万吨。巴西发运量858.2万吨，环比增加120.5万吨。中国47 港到港总量2369.9万吨，环比减少399.4万吨；中国45港到港总量2268.9万吨，环比减少472.3万吨。 ◆ 需求：日均铁水产量236.28万吨，环比上周减少0.60万吨。高炉炼铁产能利用率88.58%，环比上周减少0.22个百分点；钢厂盈利率37.66%， 环比上周减少1.3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The PVC market currently has a supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand. Although the expected cancellation of anti - dumping policies may reduce export pressure to India, it is still difficult to reverse the situation of over - supply. In the short term, valuations have declined to a low level, but they cannot support the current supply - demand situation. In the medium term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2425 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2805 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton week - on - week; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. Chlor - alkali integrated profit is continuously declining, and ethylene - based profit is at a low level, with a currently neutral - to - low valuation [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.8%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 81.3%, up 0.5% month - on - month; the ethylene method is 73.1%, down 0.1% month - on - month. Supply load increased slightly last week, and is expected to further recover next week. November's overall load is expected to remain high, with multiple new units starting trial production, resulting in continuous high supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: The revocation of India's BIS certification policy has little impact on the current export fundamentals. The expected non - implementation of anti - dumping duties will reduce the pressure of exporting to India at the end of the year. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The pipe loading is 40.2%, down 0.4% month - on - month; the film loading is 71.1%, unchanged month - on - month; the profile loading is 36.3%, down 0.7% month - on - month. The overall downstream load is 49.2%, down 0.3% month - on - month, and the downstream is about to enter the off - season. Last week, PVC pre - sales volume was 67.6 tons, down 2.3 tons week - on - week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, factory inventory was 31.5 tons, down 0.7 tons week - on - week; social inventory was 103.3 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week; total inventory was 134.8 tons, down 0.2 tons week - on - week; the number of warehouse receipts continued to increase. It is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. Even if the export pressure to India is alleviated, due to the weak domestic demand, it is difficult to absorb the increasing production, and inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the magnitude may improve [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, corporate comprehensive profits are at a low level for the year, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, there are few maintenance activities on the supply side, and production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple new units will start trial production. Domestically, the downstream is about to enter the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Exports are expected to maintain a high volume to India, but it is still difficult to absorb the excess capacity. The calcium carbide on the cost side is weak, and caustic soda prices are falling. In the medium term, after the new units are put into operation, the supply - demand situation is poor, and real - estate demand continues to decline. It is necessary to rely on export growth or the elimination of old units to absorb the domestic excess capacity [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets The report presents multiple charts including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [15][16][18][25][27]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory The report shows charts of PVC factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, social inventory total inventory, warehouse receipts, and various profit charts, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [32][33][35][39][43]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have a slight increase. The report provides charts of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide prices, calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, semi - coke price, liquid caustic soda price, liquid chlorine price, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [49][50][51][54]. 3.5 Supply Side In 2025, the PVC capacity investment is large, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The report lists specific PVC production capacity expansion plans in 2025, including new plants such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical, with a total planned production capacity of 250 tons per year [59][64]. 3.6 Demand Side The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC are declining marginally and gradually entering the off - season. The report also shows charts of PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area, but no specific data analysis and conclusions are provided [75][76][78][81][83][85].

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅情绪波动，多晶硅震荡博弈 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/22 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 ◆ 需求： 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为2.75万吨，环比继续下降。 百川盈孚口径DMC库存4.38万吨，环比+0.17万吨。 1-10月，铝合金累计产量1576.00万吨，累计同比+254.20万吨或+19.23%。 1-10月，我国工业硅累计净出口59.80万吨，累计同比+0.97万吨或+1.66%。 ◆ 库存：百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存66.01万吨，环比-1.86万吨。其中，工厂库存26.32万吨，环比-0.48万吨；市场库存18.50万吨，环比 +0.10万吨；已注册仓单库存21.19万吨，环比-1.48万吨。 ◆ 截至2025/11/21，华东地区553# ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market logic shows that bulls are mainly driven by the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, more upward movements than downward in the second half of the year, and the expected positive impact of Chinese policies. The exchange inventory is low. Bears mainly base their view on the weak actual demand, the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies, and the increase in rubber exports from Thailand and Cote d'Ivoire [19]. - The rubber price still has opportunities for long - position trading on pullbacks. In the short term, wait for the price to stabilize and then consider short - term long positions. Also, pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2609, as there may be opportunities for adding positions again and waiting for the right time for swing trading [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - In the week of October 18, 2025, the report indicated positive factors such as a significant increase in the rainfall forecast in Thailand, positive expectations from the China - US talks, and the EUDR利好, which led to a significant increase of nearly 800 yuan in the rubber price. Subsequently, the driving force for the price increase diminished, and the price oscillated and corrected. In the week of November 1, 2025, and the morning reports from November 5 - 7, short - term long opportunities during the price correction were suggested [10]. - Around mid - November, about 10 - 11 tons of rubber warehouse receipts were expected to expire and be taken out of storage, which would significantly reduce the exchange's rubber inventory and warehouse receipts. Low inventory is likely to attract the attention of bulls [10]. - By November 21, 2025, the impact of the typhoon on the rainfall forecast weakened marginally, reducing the positive supply factors [10]. - The EUDR's implementation time has been postponed again. This postponement will cause a chain reaction such as inventory reduction in the stocking process of rubber and tire factories, which is a short - term negative factor for demand. However, the proposal released on October 21, 2025, is a marginal positive factor, but the positive expectation is not significant [14]. - The rubber throwing storage of 62,000 tons on September 25, 2025, is judged to be a short - term negative factor and a medium - term positive factor because it is a replacement storage [15]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year. In 2018, 2019, and 2020, the decline occurred earlier. In 2023, the rubber price was lower than the industry's expectation and below the rubber farmers' cost for a long time [31]. - The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while the Chinese demand remains stable [36]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [39]. 3.3. Profit and Ratio - The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, and other commodities are generally normal, with no special or notable values [47][54]. - The prices of rubber and black commodities move in a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [50]. 3.4. Cost End - The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber in Thailand is between 30 - 35 Thai baht, the cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [58]. - The rubber maintenance cost is a dynamic concept. When the rubber price is high, rubber farmers are more motivated to maintain, and the cost is high; when the price is low, the cost decreases [58]. 3.5. Demand End - The operating rate of all - steel tires in tire factories is 61.31% (-3.19%), showing a downward trend. The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the peak of the rush - export of semi - steel tires to Europe has passed, and the demand is expected to weaken [19]. - The demand from the middle - stream industry: the prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the demand for supporting tires is expected to recover gradually. The export of tires is highly prosperous, but it is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][70]. 3.6. Supply End - The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no special or notable values in production, consumption, export, and import data [75][79][82]. - In September 2025, the rubber production was 1,141,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.30% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.98%. The cumulative production was 8,170,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33% [105]. - The production and export data of major rubber - producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and China in September 2025 are provided, along with their year - on - year and month - on - month changes [105][106].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - U.S. large technology companies' earnings are better than expected, leading to a significant rebound in the capital market after the decline, and the commodity market has followed suit. Polyolefin methanol production profits have turned positive, with overall supply output being relatively abundant. During the seasonal peak season, the number of polyethylene agricultural film orders is significantly better than expected. After the seasonal peak season ends and demand sentiment fades, polyolefin prices may continue to fluctuate downward under the background of high production pressure [15][17][18] - This week's forecast: Polyethylene (LL2601) is expected to trade in the range of 6,700 - 7,000; Polypropylene (PP2601) is expected to trade in the range of 6,300 - 6,600. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [17] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Conditions**: U.S. large technology companies' earnings are better than expected, leading to a significant rebound in the capital market after the decline, and the commodity market has followed suit. In terms of valuation, polyethylene's weekly increase shows (futures > cost > spot), while polypropylene's weekly increase shows (cost > spot > futures). On the cost side, last week, WTI crude oil rose 1.62%, Brent crude oil rose 1.28%, coal prices remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell -4.52%, ethylene fell -0.47%, propylene rose 2.94%, and propane rose 2.52%. Cost support still exists [15] - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization is 83.77%, up 0.06% week-on-week, 2.17% higher than the same period last year, and -7.82% lower than the five-year average. PP capacity utilization is 77.71%, down -3.85% week-on-week, 3.96% higher than the same period last year, and -11.22% lower than the five-year average. Polyolefin coal-based production profits have turned negative, and coal-based producers are facing production cut pressure [15] - **Imports and Exports**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, up 7.58% month-on-month and -10.04% lower than the same period last year. In August, domestic PP imports were 177,400 tons, up 11.15% month-on-month and -6.18% lower than the same period last year. Import profits have declined, and the supply of PE from North America has decreased, reducing import pressure. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, down -14.48% month-on-month and 63.54% higher than the same period last year. In September, PP exports were 208,200 tons, down -16.82% month-on-month and 21.14% higher than the same period last year. With the start of Christmas stocking, PP exports may remain at a high level year-on-year [16] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 44.20%, down -0.65% week-on-week and 1.12% higher than the same period last year. The downstream operating rate of PP is 53.28%, up 0.26% week-on-week and 1.22% higher than the same period last year. During the seasonal peak season, polyolefin downstream demand is lower than the same period in previous years [16] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 503,300 tons, with a week-on-week destocking of -4.89% and a year-on-year inventory build-up of 22.43%; PE trader inventory is 50,500 tons, with a week-on-week inventory build-up of 1.04%; PP production enterprise inventory is 593,800 tons, with a week-on-week destocking of -4.23% and a year-on-year inventory build-up of 18.12%; PP trader inventory is 213,400 tons, with a week-on-week destocking of -1.79%; PP port inventory is 65,800 tons, with a week-on-week destocking of -1.64%. Overall, polyolefin inventory pressure is high [16] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the term structure, prices, trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads of PE and PP, including LLDPE and PP's term structure, main contract prices, active contract trading volume and open interest, and various price spreads [32][48][65] 3. Cost Side - The cost side shows that methanol production costs have weakened significantly. Multiple charts are provided to show the prices of various raw materials such as PE and PP's spot and futures prices and costs, WTI crude oil, steam coal, naphtha, propane, etc., as well as the capacity utilization and gross profit of Chinese refineries [74][81][93] 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - **Production Raw Materials**: The proportion of PE production raw materials includes 80.00% oil-based, 12.00% light hydrocarbon-based, 5.00% coal-based, 2.00% methanol, and 1.00% purchased ethylene. The annual proportion of production raw materials is also presented [139][141] - **Capacity and Production**: In 2025, a total of 463 tons of polyethylene production capacity has been put into operation, with 40 tons yet to be put into operation. Charts show PE's capacity, capacity utilization, production, and maintenance losses [145][147][152] 5. Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - Charts show PE's inventory-to-sales ratio, total inventory forecast, production enterprise inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina enterprise inventory [164][168]