Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/11/22 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is under short - term pressure, and the market is waiting for policy signals. In the short term, due to the weakening of interest - rate cut expectations, the commodity market sentiment is generally cold, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. However, as the Fed's easing expectations are gradually realized and positive signals are released from the China - US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. If the manufacturing repair trend continues, the steel consumption side may gradually stabilize and recover. In the medium term, as subsequent growth - stabilizing policies are gradually implemented and the macro - environment improves marginally, steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point and achieve a moderate recovery [1][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 57 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross profit. The futures price is about 10 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, and the valuation is neutral [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, about a 2.4% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, with a slight decline. The current hot - rolled coil production is relatively high, and the subsequent production reduction rhythm needs to be monitored [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 108,000 tons, about a 2.2% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. Affected by the weak demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, the current demand for sheet metal is weak. Although the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly this week, the demand level is difficult to absorb the production [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 402,110 tons, at a relatively high level, and the current inventory pressure is large [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, and price differences between different contracts. It also shows the price relationships between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, iron ore, and rebar [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report presents charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. It also shows the inventory data of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory [57][62][68] 4. Cost Side - The report includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel. It also shows data on daily average pig iron output, iron - making costs, and the prices of related products [78][79][84] 5. Supply Side - It shows the weekly production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, color - coated plates, and galvanized plates in different regions [93][94][102] 6. Demand Side - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream products such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers [111][112][115] 7. Other - It includes production data of engines, civilian steel ships, and EMUs [130][131]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - As the reserve demand and export stocking progress, the short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also boosted demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, leading to a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened. The urea price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with limited downward space due to export policies and cost support, and no significant upward - driving factors in the short term. The recommended strategy is to wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Summary**: With the progress of reserve demand and export stocking, short - term domestic urea demand has improved. The seasonal increase in compound fertilizer production has also driven up demand. The supply - side production has slightly declined, resulting in a slight improvement in domestic supply - demand balance. The futures price has a narrow - range movement, the spot price has a higher bottom, and the basis has strengthened [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The enterprise operation rate is 83.91%, a 0.17% decrease from the previous period, but it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. The daily production is 20.15 tons, expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level in the short term. The enterprise's advance orders are 7.12 days, a 0.59 - day decrease from the previous period [12]. - **Demand**: The profits of all production processes are at a low level. The compound fertilizer operation rate is 34.61%, a 4.29% increase from the previous period, and it will continue to increase seasonally. Future demand should focus on off - season storage and export demand changes [12]. - **Valuation**: The export profit is at a high level, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Currently, the domestic urea valuation is relatively low [12]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory is 143.72 tons, a 4.64 - ton decrease from the previous period, due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking. The port inventory is 10 tons, a 1.8 - ton increase from the previous period, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. - **Market Logic**: The combination of reserve demand and export benefits has led to a reduction in high - level enterprise inventory, and the supply - demand has slightly improved. However, the absolute inventory level of enterprises is still high, and the price is mainly oscillating at the bottom [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or consider long - position opportunities at low prices [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The prices of the 09, 01, and 05 contracts have changed, with the 09 contract decreasing by 14, the 01 contract increasing by 2, and the 05 contract increasing by 1. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads have also changed [13]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia have increased to varying degrees, and the basis has strengthened [13]. - **Downstream Market**: The prices of compound fertilizers and melamine have increased, but the profits of compound fertilizers and melamine have changed differently [13]. - **International Market**: The international prices of urea have increased, and the export profit has reached a high level [13]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profit**: The production profit is at a low level but has slightly rebounded [30]. - **Inventory** - **Enterprise Inventory**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, mainly due to domestic reserve demand and export stocking [12]. - **Port Inventory**: The port inventory has increased, and it is expected that the port collection will gradually increase [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Operation Rate**: The urea operation rate has returned to a high level compared to the same period last year [41]. - **Device Maintenance** - **Current Maintenance**: Many enterprises are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a certain amount of production loss [44]. - **Planned Maintenance**: Some enterprises have planned maintenance in the future, which may affect the supply [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption Forecast**: The consumption of urea shows certain seasonal characteristics [50]. - **Compound Fertilizer**: The operation rate of compound fertilizers is mainly increasing seasonally, and the profit has changed [53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios of urea to other nitrogen sources have changed [56]. - **Melamine**: The operation rate and profit of melamine have changed, and the export volume has also changed [59]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports [67]. - **Export**: The export profit is at a high level, and the export volume has changed [77]. 3.6. Options - Related - The trading volume, open interest, and volatility of urea options have changed, which can reflect the market's expectations and sentiment [91][97]. 3.7. Industry Structure Diagram - The report provides diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics, which help to understand the overall structure and characteristics of the urea industry [100][102][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report From the fundamental perspective, demand is not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remains at a moderately weak level, and the previous decline in the futures market has digested the bearish impact of a bumper harvest. Currently, there is no strong driving force for the market, and it is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The price of US cotton futures fluctuated this week. As of Friday, the closing price of the March contract of US cotton futures was reported at 63.93 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.21 cents per pound or 0.33% from the previous week. The spread between the March - May contracts of US cotton fluctuated, reported at -1.26 cents per pound, a decrease of 0.08 cents per pound from the previous week. Domestically, the price of Zhengzhou cotton continued to fluctuate. As of Friday, the closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was reported at 13,460 yuan per ton, an increase of 10 yuan per ton or 0.07% from the previous week. The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,371 yuan per ton, a decrease of 435 yuan per ton from the previous week. The basis weakened, reported at 917 yuan per ton, a decrease of 425 yuan per ton from the previous week. The spread between the January - May contracts of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated, reported at 15 yuan per ton, an increase of 35 yuan per ton from the previous week [9]. - **Industry Information**: According to the latest monthly supply - demand report data from the USDA, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to the September estimate. Among them, the production in the US increased by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the production in Brazil increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the production in India remained at the estimated 5.23 million tons; and the production in China increased by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, in October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36%. According to the latest data released by Mysteel, as of the week of November 14, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.1 percentage points compared to the average of the past five years (72.6%); the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons [9]. - **View and Strategy**: It is expected that cotton prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy recommendation is to wait and see [9][11]. 2. Spread Trend Review The report presents multiple spread trend charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, the basis trend of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, import profit, Zhengzhou cotton monthly spreads, and spreads of US cotton contracts, etc., to show the historical trends of various spreads [23]. 3. Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Charts show the processing and inspection quantity of Chinese cotton and the purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton [37]. - **Cotton Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton are presented, as well as the cumulative and weekly export contract volumes of the US to China [39][42]. - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: The monthly and annual cumulative import volumes of Chinese cotton yarn are shown [44]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills are presented [47]. - **Sales Progress**: The national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are shown [49]. - **Cotton Inventory**: The weekly commercial inventory of Chinese cotton and the combined commercial and industrial monthly inventory are presented, as well as the raw material and finished product inventories of spinning mills [52][54]. 4. International Market Situation - **US Situation**: Charts show the proportion of US cotton - growing areas without drought, the good - excellent rate of US cotton, production, planting area, export contract progress, export shipment volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio [58]. - **Brazil Situation**: The planting area, production, and export volume of Brazilian cotton, as well as supply surplus/shortage and inventory - consumption ratio are presented [70]. - **India Situation**: The planting area, production, consumption, import - export volume, supply surplus/shortage, and inventory - consumption ratio of Indian cotton are shown [78].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term focus is the support strength of demand. Before the spot price realizes seasonal increase, the futures market is expected to fluctuate. The near - month contracts will focus on the premium and discount, and the far - month contracts will reflect the expectation of capacity reduction. The spread between near - and far - month contracts will be mainly in reverse arbitrage. In the medium term, after the stocking period ends, the market focus will return to supply. It is still necessary to pay attention to the upper pressure and wait for a short - selling opportunity after a rebound [11][12] - The trading strategy suggests short - term waiting and observing, and paying attention to the upper pressure of the 01 - 06 contracts in the medium term. The arbitrage strategy is mainly reverse arbitrage [13] Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot market: Last week, domestic egg prices declined slowly. Supply was sufficient, and demand was weak due to the lack of festival boost. As egg prices fell and losses widened, the enthusiasm for culling chickens increased, and the prices and ages of culled chickens continued to decline. Next week, egg prices may rise slightly, but the increase will be limited by supply [11] - Rearing and culling: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the market's enthusiasm for rearing chicks remained low. In October, the number of chicks reared decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7%. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remained high, and the age of chickens decreased to 491 days, but there was still a distance from excessive culling [11] - Inventory and trend: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, with a 2.9% decline by March next year, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [11] - Demand: As the temperature drops, the consumption side may experience a process of inventory accumulation followed by destocking before the Spring Festival [11] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot price trend: Last week, domestic egg prices declined slowly. Supply was sufficient, and demand was weak. Next week, egg prices may rise slightly, but the increase will be limited by supply [20] - Basis and spread: The spot price increase was less than expected, resulting in a weak basis. The spread between near - month contracts was mainly in reverse arbitrage [23] - Culled chicken price: Although egg prices rebounded from the low level, the breeding was still in a loss state. The enthusiasm for culling chickens remained high, and the price of culled chickens and the price difference between culled and white chickens reached new lows [26] 3. Supply Side - Egg - laying hen rearing: Affected by weak egg prices and breeding losses, the enthusiasm for rearing chicks remained low. In October, the number of chicks reared decreased to 78.3 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [33] - Culled chicken culling: The enthusiasm for culling chickens remained high, the price of old chickens reached a multi - year low, the price difference between culled and white chickens further decreased, and the age of chickens decreased to 491 days, but there was still a distance from excessive culling [36] - Inventory and trend: As of the end of October, the inventory of laying hens was 1.359 billion, lower than the previous value and significantly lower than expected. It is expected that the inventory will gradually peak and decline in the future, with a 2.9% decline by March next year, but the absolute supply will still be relatively high [38][41] 4. Demand Side - Sales volume in sales areas: As the temperature drops, the consumption side may experience a process of inventory accumulation followed by destocking before the Spring Festival [46] 5. Cost and Profit - Cost and profit: The cost was lower year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. The profit was at a seasonally low level [51] 6. Inventory Side - Production and circulation inventory: The inventory was basically at a normal or slightly higher seasonal level [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, the oversupply situation in the stainless - steel market continued, with weak market confidence. Traders and end - users mostly made purchases on demand, lacking the willingness to stock up actively, resulting in dull overall transactions. On the demand side, the real - estate market slump dragged down stainless - steel consumption in construction, decoration, household cookware, etc., leading to slow inventory depletion and a higher - than - usual inventory level, indicating insufficient end - user digestion capacity. On the cost side, abundant raw material imports from Indonesia and other places caused the nickel - iron price to decline, squeezing iron - mill profit margins and weakening cost support for stainless steel. Overall, under the combined effects of high supply, weak demand, and falling costs, stainless - steel prices are expected to continue their downward trend [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week. The average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week. In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year. In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month, and the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month. From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week. The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week. The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - On November 21, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong was 890 yuan/nickel, down 2.20% week - on - week; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,500 yuan/ton, down 1.17% week - on - week. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,290 yuan/ton, down 0.73% week - on - week [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong was about 10 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 32); the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang was about 210 yuan higher than the main contract (+ 82). The trading volume was 244,050 lots, up 4.01% week - on - week [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was - 80 (+ 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was - 145 (+ 45) [23]. 3. Supply Side - In November, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.4126 million tons. In October, the crude - steel output was 3.0645 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to October increased by 6.48% year - on - year [27]. - In October, the estimated crude - steel output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4497 million tons, down 2.27% month - on - month; the cold - rolled output was 700,400 tons, down 4.16% month - on - month [30]. - In October, the estimated monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia was 440,000 tons, up 2.33% month - on - month; China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 103,300 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month [33]. - In October, the net export volume of stainless steel was 234,000 tons, down 21.54% month - on - month and 9.71% year - on - year; the cumulative net export volume from January to October was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year [36]. 4. Demand Side - From January to October 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 719.82 billion square meters, down 6.80% year - on - year; in October, the single - month sales area was 61.4721 billion square meters, down 19.60% year - on - year [40]. - In October, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were - 3%, - 6%, - 13.5%, and - 2% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry was + 21.2% [43]. - In October, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 113,000 units, down 16.30% month - on - month and unchanged year - on - year; the automobile sales volume was 3.3221 million units, up 2.97% month - on - month and 8.82% year - on - year [46]. 5. Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0717 million tons, up 0.11% week - on - week; the futures - warehouse receipt inventory was 70,400 tons, down 15,889 tons week - on - week [50]. - The social inventories of 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 188,200 tons, 658,800 tons, and 224,800 tons respectively, with the 300 - series inventory down 0.17% week - on - week. The floating inventory of stainless steel was 82,400 tons, up 10.13% week - on - week, and the unloading volume was 77,900 tons, up 4.97% week - on - week [53]. 6. Cost Side - In October, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.6828 million wet tons, down 23.50% month - on - month and up 11.81% year - on - year. The current nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% was 56.0 US dollars per wet ton, and the port inventory was 14.9976 million wet tons, down 0.64% week - on - week [57]. - The ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel - iron in Shandong last week was 885 yuan/nickel, down 20 yuan/nickel week - on - week, and iron mills in Fujian were currently making a loss of 134 yuan/nickel [60]. - Last week, the chromium - ore quotation was 53 yuan per dry ton, down 1.5 yuan per dry ton week - on - week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,000 yuan per 50 - base ton, down 100 yuan per 50 - base ton week - on - week. In October, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 825,000 tons, up 1.54% month - on - month [63]. - The current gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line was - 887 yuan/ton, and the profit margin was - 6.55% [66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The valuation of copper is slightly bearish with a neutral bias. The global manufacturing PMI has a neutral driving force, the short - term decline in copper concentrate processing fees is bullish, and the rise in the US dollar index is bearish. Geopolitical factors suppress risk appetite, while copper raw material supply remains tight. Although domestic smelting maintenance is decreasing marginally, downstream operating rates remain strong, and the short - term pressure on inventory accumulation in China is not significant. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The trading range for the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 84,800 - 87,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is expected to be between 10,550 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: Spot processing fees for copper concentrates declined, and those for blister copper remained flat. Codelco's 2026 CIF South Korea electrolytic copper long - term contract offer increased by 245 US dollars/ton compared to 2025 [11]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, with SHFE inventory rising to 111,000 tons, LME inventory to 155,000 tons, and COMEX inventory to 362,000 tons. Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 90 yuan/ton over futures, and the LME Cash/3M premium was 1.1 US dollars/ton [11]. - Imports and Exports: The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium rebounded. In October 2025, China's refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 3.225 million tons, and net imports were 2.676 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [11]. - Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises increased, and spot transactions remained warm. The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reducing the substitution advantage of scrap copper, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined further [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: Copper prices fluctuated downward. The main SHFE copper contract fell 1.43% for the week, and LME copper fell 0.63% to 10,778 US dollars/ton [22]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products showed different degrees of change, and the price spreads also varied [24]. - Premiums and Discounts: The spot premium of copper in East China was 90 yuan/ton over futures. The LME Cash/3M premium first declined and then rose, reaching 1.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The loss on domestic electrolytic copper spot imports continued to narrow, and the Yangshan copper premium (bill of lading) rebounded [27]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot TC for imported copper concentrates declined to - 42.3 US dollars/ton, and the price of sulfuric acid in East China increased, positively boosting copper smelting revenue [35]. - Import - Export Ratio: No specific information on the change trend is provided. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The loss on copper spot imports narrowed [40]. - Inventory: The combined inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 38,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The increase in SHFE inventory came from Shanghai, and the decrease came from Guangdong and Jiangsu. The number of copper warehouse receipts decreased by 40 to 49,790 tons. The increase in LME inventory came from Asian warehouses, and European inventory decreased slightly. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts declined [43][46][49]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM, China's refined copper output in October 2025 decreased by about 30,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November. According to NBS data, domestic refined copper output in October was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [54]. - Import and Export Situation: In October 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.451 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative imports were 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. Unwrought copper and copper products imports were 438,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 55,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons but a year - on - year decline of 8.6%. Refined copper imports were 323,000 tons, with net imports of 257,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 90,000 tons and a year - on - year decline of 31.6%. Refined copper exports were 66,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The profit from domestic spot copper feed - processing exports narrowed. Recycled copper imports were 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.4%. From January to October, cumulative imports were 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [57][60][63][69][72]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in October both weakened. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was divided, with improvements in the Eurozone, India, and the UK, and weakening in the US and Japan [79]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: In October, the year - on - year output of automobiles, color TVs, and power generation equipment increased, while that of refrigerators, air conditioners, washing machines, freezers, and AC motors decreased. From January to October, the cumulative output of power generation equipment, air conditioners, washing machines, refrigerators, and AC motors increased, while that of color TVs and freezers decreased [82]. - Real Estate Data: Domestic real estate data in October continued to be weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year. The decline in construction remained the same, while the decline in new construction, sales, and completion widened. The National Housing Climate Index continued to decline [85]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates: In October, the operating rates of refined copper rod, enameled wire, wire and cable, copper tube, brass rod, and copper strip enterprises declined, while the operating rate of copper foil enterprises increased. It is expected that the operating rates of these enterprises will rebound or increase slightly in November [88][91][94][97]. - Refined - Scrap Price Spread: The domestic refined - scrap copper price spread narrowed, reaching 2,675 yuan/ton on Friday [100]. 6. Capital Side - SHFE Copper Positions: The total SHFE copper positions decreased by 71,216 to 1,034,950 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the nearby 2512 contract were 249,184 lots (bilateral) [105]. - Foreign Fund Positions: As of October 7, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 13.3%. The proportion of long positions of LME investment funds stabilized as of November 14 [108].

沪锌多头离场， 短期价格承压 锌周报 2025/11/22 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 CONTENTS 目录 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪锌指数收涨0.03%至22395元/吨，单边交易总持仓19.52万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌0.5至 2989.5美元/吨，总持仓22.08万手。SMM0#锌锭均价22440元/吨，上海基差25元/吨，天津基差-15元/吨，广东基差-35元/吨，沪 粤价差60元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据上海有色数据，国内社会库存小幅去库至15.27万吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得7.29万吨，内盘上海地区基差25元/ 吨，连续合约-连一合约价差5元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得4.61万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得0.36万吨。外盘cash-3S合约 基差134.75美元/吨，3-15价差26美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.05 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in October showed a weakening in both supply and demand, with the overall situation declining compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year under the influence of the high base in the fourth quarter, the pressure on the real estate market, and the decline in government bond growth [13]. - In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. - From a fundamental perspective, the bond market has limited downward adjustment space. Looking forward, the capital side is expected to remain loose. With the increasing uncertainty of tariff disturbances and external demand, there is still pressure on economic growth stabilization. The direction of loose monetary policy and the adjustment trend of capital-intensive industries are still difficult to change. In the long term, the bond market should mainly adopt the idea of buying on dips [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Economic and Policy Situation**: In October, economic data showed a decline in both supply and demand. The growth rate of industrial added value declined due to weak external demand, production structure adjustment under the "anti-involution" policy, and fewer working days. New policy-based financial instruments failed to fully offset the impact of the real estate downturn, and the power of demand recovery was insufficient. The export data in October was lower than expected, with a decline in exports to the United States and resilient growth in non-US regions. The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized achieving the annual economic and social development goals. Considering the high economic growth rate in the first three quarters, the pressure to achieve the goals this year is not large, and the policy side may focus more on the connection policies with next year. There is no strong need for additional measures in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the US dollar liquidity is tight, and subsequent inflation and employment data should be observed for their indication of a December interest rate cut [10]. - **Liquidity**: This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [13]. - **Interest Rates**: The latest 10-year Treasury bond yield closed at 1.82%, up 0.81 BP week-on-week; the 30-year Treasury bond yield closed at 2.16%, up 1.20 BP week-on-week. The latest 10-year US Treasury bond yield was 4.06%, down 8.00 BP week-on-week [13]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the economic data in October was weak on both the supply and demand sides, and the overall situation declined compared to the third quarter. The demand-side momentum still needs to be strengthened. The subsequent impact of new policy-based financial instruments and the incremental debt balance limit on the fourth-quarter growth rate should be monitored. The social financing growth rate declined in October, and it may remain weak at the end of the year. In terms of funds, the tax payment period is approaching, and the maturity volume of interbank certificates of deposit is large. However, the central bank has increased the volume of repurchase operations, maintaining its attitude of protecting funds. Overall, the supply-demand pattern of the bond market in the fourth quarter may improve. Currently, the market is generally oscillating under the intertwined background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. The rhythm needs to pay attention to the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds and the increasing impact of allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **T Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the T current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the T main contract [20]. - **TL Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TL current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TL main contract [23]. - **TF Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TF current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TF main contract [26]. - **TS Contract Performance**: Relevant charts show the closing price and annualized discount trend of the TS current-quarter contract, as well as the settlement price and net basis trend of the TS main contract [29]. - **TS and TF Positions**: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the TS and TF contracts [33]. - **T and TL Positions**: Relevant charts show the closing price and position volume of the T and TL contracts [36]. 3. Main Economic Data Domestic Economy - **GDP and PMI**: In the third quarter of 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.8%, exceeding market expectations. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous value; the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, showing a differentiation between the manufacturing and service industries [41]. - **Manufacturing PMI Sub - items**: In October, both supply and demand in the manufacturing industry were under pressure. The production index decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 49.5%, with a larger decline than the new order index. The new order index continued to be below the boom-bust line, and the import index dropped to 46.8%, indicating insufficient domestic terminal consumption and investment demand [47]. - **Price Index**: In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, the core CPI increased by 1.2% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the core CPI increased by 0.2%, and the PPI increased by 0.1%. The price of pork was weak due to sufficient supply, but the demand during the double festivals drove up the prices of vegetables and fruits. The year-on-year decline of the PPI narrowed [50]. - **Export Data**: In October 2025, China's import and export data was slightly lower than expected. Exports (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, and imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year. Exports to the United States decreased by 25.1% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN maintained a relatively high growth rate [53]. - **Industrial Added Value and Social Consumption**: In October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 4.9%, down from 6.5% in the previous month. The year-on-year growth rate of social consumption retail sales was 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The growth rate of social consumption retail sales decreased due to the high base of durable goods such as cars and home appliances, but the growth rate of non-car consumption items improved [56]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment and Real Estate**: From January to October, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -1.7%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment was -14.7%. In October, the month-on-month decline of second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities was 0.7%, and the year-on-year decline was 5.4% [59]. - **Real Estate Construction and Sales**: In October, the cumulative value of new housing starts was 490.61 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 19.8%. The cumulative value of new housing construction was 6.52939 billion square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 9.4%. The cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion - end data in October was 16.99%, and the new housing sales data in 30 large and medium - sized cities weakened recently [62][65]. Foreign Economy - **US Economy**: In the second quarter, the annualized current - price GDP of the United States was 3.0331 trillion US dollars, with a real year-on-year growth rate of 1.99% and a quarter-on - quarter growth rate of 3.0%. In September, the unadjusted CPI in the United States increased by 3% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3% year-on-year. In August, the order amount of durable goods in the United States was 312.4 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.63%. The seasonally adjusted non - farm employment population increased by 22,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%. In October, the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 48.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4 [68][71][74]. - **European Economy**: In the third quarter, the GDP of the European Union increased by 1.5% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on - quarter. In October, the CPI in the eurozone increased by 2.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year. In November, the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone was 49.7, and the service industry PMI was 53.1 [74][77]. 4. Liquidity - **Money Supply and Social Financing**: In October, the growth rate of M1 was 6.2%, and the growth rate of M2 was 8.2%. The increment of social financing was 815 billion yuan, with a year-on - year decrease of 597 billion yuan. The growth rate of government bonds in the social financing sub - items slowed down, and the financing of the real - sector was weak. The growth rate of social financing in the household and enterprise sectors was 5.92%, and the growth rate of government bonds was 19.20% [82][85]. - **Central Bank Operations**: In October, the balance of MLF was 6.05 trillion yuan, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. This week, the central bank conducted 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 800 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1.122 trillion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing. The net investment this week was 1.354 trillion yuan, and the DR007 interest rate closed at 1.44% [88]. 5. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Interest Rate Changes**: The table shows the changes in various market interest rates, including repurchase rates, Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond yields [91]. - **Interest Rate Charts**: Relevant charts show the trends of Treasury bond yields, inter - bank pledged repurchase rates, US Treasury bond yields, and the yields of Treasury bonds in the UK, France, Germany, and Italy. There are also charts showing the Federal Reserve's target interest rate and exchange rates [94][96][97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance. Considering the inhibitory effect of high prices on tin consumption and the marginal relief of the shortage at the mine end, it is expected that tin prices will mainly fluctuate [11][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In October, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of domestic raw material supply was slightly alleviated. In October, the import volume of tin ore and its concentrates was 11,632 physical tons (equivalent to about 4,938 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 15.74% and a month - on - month increase of 43.36%. The import volume from Myanmar was 2,367 tons (equivalent to about 861 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 43.64% and a month - on - month increase of 1.50%. The total import volume from other countries in October was 9,266 tons (equivalent to about 4,077 metal tons), a year - on - year decrease of 5.90% and a month - on - month increase of 57.05% [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow, and the export volume remains low. The raw material shortage of smelting enterprises in Yunnan still exists. The short - term operating rate is stable, but there is insufficient upward momentum. In Jiangxi, due to a significant reduction in scrap, the supply of crude tin is insufficient, and the refined tin output continues to be at a low level. In general, it is expected that the overall operating level of smelters in the two places will be difficult to further improve in the short term [12]. - Demand side: Although the consumption performance in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is a bit weak, the long - term demand expectations brought by emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support tin prices. In the peak season, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend in October. The domestic integrated circuit output in October was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7%. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The short - term price increase is too large, and the downstream acceptance is limited, resulting in an obvious accumulation of inventory. This week, the total social inventory of tin ingots in major regions in China was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19]. 3.3. Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fee remains at a low level [26]. 3.4. Supply Side - The production of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is generally stable at a high level. The production recovery in Yunnan is obvious, while that in Jiangxi is a bit weak. The shortage of raw material supply is a common constraint for capacity release in both places [12][13]. - According to customs data, in October 2025, the physical volume of imported tin concentrates in China reached 11,632 tons, a slight increase from the previous month. The import volume of tin concentrates from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo has rebounded, and the overall volume meets expectations. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar decreased slightly in October, but it is expected to increase by more than 2,000 tons in November after the mining license is approved [12][13]. 3.5. Demand Side - The year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales has slightly rebounded, and the global semiconductor sales maintain high growth [44]. - The tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline because aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. The PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [55]. - The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend in October, and the domestic integrated circuit output in October was 4.18 billion pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.7% [12]. 3.6. Supply - Demand Balance - The total social inventory of tin ingots in major regions in China this week was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is relatively abundant. After the departure of the previous main long - position holders, the lead price is still oscillating within a wide range. Given the recent weak performance of major global financial assets, the lead price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Summaries by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.31% at 17,165 yuan/ton, with a total single - sided trading position of 75,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 17.5 to 1,997.5 dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,075 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,975 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [11] - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In October 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 98,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 39.7% and a month - on - month change of - 34.6%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 1,167,300 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 14.0%. In October 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 149,400 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 11.4% and a month - on - month change of - 7.0%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 1,507,900 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.4%. In October 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 146,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.6% and a month - on - month change of - 3.4%. From January to October, the total production of lead concentrate was 1,395,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.4%. In October 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 118,700 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 21.6% and a month - on - month change of - 23.2%. From January to October, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 1,303,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.9% [15][17] - **Total Supply**: In October 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 264,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 6.6% and a month - on - month change of - 13.4%. From January to October, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,698,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.7%. In August 2025, the global lead ore production was 383,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of 0.5%. From January to August, the total global lead ore production was 3,008,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.1% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, lead concentrate port inventory was 40,000 tons, factory inventory was 450,000 tons, equivalent to 30.2 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC of lead concentrate was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 67.70%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's primary lead production was 326,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.7% and a month - on - month change of - 0.5%. From January to October, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,186,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 7.7% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Material Inventory and Output**: At the recycled end, lead waste inventory was 103,000 tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 45,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 6,000 tons. In October 2025, China's recycled lead production was 346,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 11.9% and a month - on - month change of 9.2%. From January to October, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,235,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [31][33] - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In October 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 15,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 92.6% and a month - on - month change of 21.9%. From January to October, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 95,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 43.5%. In October 2025, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 687,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.3% and a month - on - month change of 4.6%. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 6,517,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.8% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: At the demand end, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.56%. In October 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 689,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 5.9% and a month - on - month change of - 4.1%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 6,526,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.9% [40] - **Battery Exports**: In October 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 16,145,200 units, and the net export weight of batteries was 84,600 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 52,900 tons, a year - on - year change of - 15.1% and a month - on - month change of - 12.8%. From January to October, the total net export of lead in batteries was 607,600 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries had a year - on - year change of - 5.0% [43] - **Inventory Changes**: In October 2025, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 19.7 days to 24.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.7 days to 41 days [45] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles and the high replacement demand provide support for domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has led to a steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [49][51][54] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In October 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 2,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 9,200 tons [63] - **Overseas Balance**: In August 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 19,400 tons. From January to August, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand gap was a shortage of - 46,900 tons [66] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 36,400 tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - continued contract was - 5 yuan/ton [71] - **Overseas Structure**: LME lead ingot inventory was 264,700 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 85,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 28.91 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 85.3 dollars/ton [74] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.21, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 10.51 yuan/ton [77] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of SHFE lead turned to a large net short position. The net long position of LME lead investment funds increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance is bearish [80]