专题报告 2025-11-20 铅：原料紧现货松，仍在宽幅区间内 张世骄 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 当前原生冶炼开工高位但原料紧缺，再生冶炼利润抬升推动再生铅锭放量，下游蓄企抬高电池 售价需求边际好转。国内外铅锭现货边际转松，月差回落。在国内冶炼厂冬季备库结束前，沪 铅主要矛盾仍然集中于原料端的紧缺和下游蓄企采买的抬升。近期美联储官员表态边际转鹰， 贵金属及有色金属情绪退潮，沪铅主力多头快速减仓，沪铅前 20 净持仓由多转空。铅价仍在 16300-17800 区间内呈现宽幅震荡态势，预计铅价近期自区间上沿向下偏弱运行为主。 有色金属研究 | 铅 资料来源：钢联数据、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 资料来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 铅：原料紧现货松，仍在宽幅区间内 原生端：开工高位但原料紧缺 原生端，由于白银和硫酸价格的强势运行，冶炼副产品给原生铅冶炼厂带来了较高的收益，高 含银铅精矿格外紧俏。2025 年下半年，贵金属价格一路上行。矿山希望从白银价格上涨中分享 部分 ...

贵金属日报 2025-11-20 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 沪金涨 0.53 %，报 935.42 元/克，沪银涨 0.63 %，报 12035.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4090.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 51.21 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.13%，美元指数报 100.10 ； 美联储票委表态和会议纪要均呈现鹰派倾向，贵金属价格昨夜冲高回落，今晨英伟达所公布的 财报超市场预期提升风偏，银价表现强于黄金。 今日凌晨公布的美联储会议纪要显示，FOMC 成员在后续利率路径方面产生了重大的分歧，数位 联储官员（包含不具备投票权的部分地方联储主席）反对本次降息决定，同时有部分支持降息 的官员表示可以接受利率不变。"许多"联储成员认为在 12 月进行降息操作缺乏依据，且这部 分官员的数量超过了认为在 12 月议息会议中降息是"合适"的官员数量。 联储主席热门候选人，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示失业率略高于均衡 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with coal prices strong and enterprise profits falling, supply pressure persists. Demand is weak, so prices may decline further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to news. Domestic demand lacks support, and supply is high. New export policies have improved the market atmosphere, and inventories are decreasing. Urea prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, the current view is bullish. Short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out is recommended, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is advised [9]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. It's recommended to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread has room to recover. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven decline may shift to the impact of South Korea's ethylene clearance policy [17]. - For polypropylene, in a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the supply - surplus situation of the cost side changes in Q1 next year [19]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from aromatics blending for gasoline and the long - term supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. - For PTA, it is expected to accumulate inventory in November. Although polyester load may remain high, PTA processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. - For ethylene glycol, inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4. With a weak pattern, the valuation may be further compressed, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 2.20 yuan/barrel, a 0.48% increase, to 464.50 yuan/barrel. Fujeirah port's gasoline inventory decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventory decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, and wait and see in the short term [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang's price decreased by 5, Lunan remained stable, Inner Mongolia increased by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan to 2013 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 16. The 1 - 5 spread was - 14, reported at - 137 [2]. - **Strategy**: High port inventories, strong coal prices, and weak demand. It's recommended to wait and see as prices may decline [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price increased by 10, Henan's by 20, Hubei's by 10. The 01 contract on the futures market increased by 1 yuan to 1663 yuan, and the basis was - 53. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 72 [5]. - **Strategy**: The market is sensitive to news. With high supply and weak demand, new export policies have improved the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. Shanghai Exchange's November natural rubber warehouse receipts are about to be delivered. The long - short views are divided. Tire factory operating rates are neutral, and inventories are mixed [8]. - **Strategy**: Bullish view, short - term bullish trading with quick in - and - out, and partial position - building for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [9]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 4492 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4450 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 42 (- 2) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 306 (+ 13) yuan/ton. Costs decreased, production and demand decreased, and inventories decreased [9]. - **Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, supply is strong, demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The price of East China pure benzene remained unchanged, the spot price of styrene decreased, and the futures price increased. Supply increased, demand increased slightly, and port inventories decreased [13]. - **Strategy**: The BZN spread has room to recover, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [14]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production decreased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand was weak [16]. - **Strategy**: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to cost and supply - demand factors [17]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price increased, the spot price decreased, the basis weakened. Upstream production increased, inventories were mixed, and downstream demand increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy**: In a weak supply - demand situation with high inventory pressure, the price may be supported when the cost - side situation changes in Q1 next year [19]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX01 contract increased by 102 yuan to 6870 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 5 dollars to 832 dollars. Loads decreased in China and Asia, and some plants had maintenance or production cuts. Imports increased, and inventories increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November, but there is support from the supply - demand structure. Mid - term valuation increase opportunities are worth attention [22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract increased by 42 yuan to 4712 yuan, and the spot price in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton to 4640 yuan. Loads decreased, some plants had maintenance or production increases, downstream loads decreased, and inventories increased [23]. - **Strategy**: Expected to accumulate inventory in November, processing fees are under pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase of PXN in the medium term [24]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan to 3903 yuan, and the spot price in East China decreased by 33 yuan to 3919 yuan. Supply loads were mixed, downstream loads decreased, imports were expected, and port inventories increased [26]. - **Strategy**: Inventories are expected to accumulate in Q4, and the valuation may be further compressed. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [27].

金融期权 2025-11-19 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率下降，但维持较高水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建偏多头的买方策略，认购期权牛市价差组合策略；对于股 指期权来说，适合构建偏多头的卖方策略、认购期权牛市价差组合策略和期权合成期货多头与期货空头做套利策略 。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

能源化工期权 2025-11-19 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseed and oil - related agricultural products are in a weak and volatile state, while fats, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market. Soft commodities like sugar have a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a weak consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price movements. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,148, down 29 (- 0.69%); palm oil (P2601) is 8,846, up 158 (1.82%). There are also differences in trading volume and open interest changes among different varieties [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Position PCR - The PCR indicators of different agricultural product options vary. For instance, the trading volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.33 (down 0.08), and the open interest PCR is 1.08 (unchanged). These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of different agricultural product options are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200 and the support level is 4050 [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different agricultural product options shows different characteristics. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 11.745, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.39 (up 0.31). The implied - historical volatility difference is - 0.39 [6] 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations for Different Options 3.5.1 Oilseed and Oil Options - **Soybean No.1**: Fundamentally, the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans in February 2026 has a slight weekly decline, and the planting progress is slow. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.70. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal**: The daily average trading volume and delivery volume of soybean meal in mainstream oil mills have changed. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil**: The spot basis of oils has a slight increase, and the total inventory is decreasing. The option implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 1.00. It is recommended to construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Peanut**: The price of peanut oil is stable. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. It is recommended to use a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The spot price of pigs has decreased. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. It is recommended to construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [10] - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens has changed. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [11] - **Apple**: The apple storage is less than the same period in previous years. The option implied volatility is above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 0.90. It is recommended to construct a long - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11] - **Jujube**: The acquisition price of jujube has changed. The option implied volatility has rapidly risen above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. It is recommended to construct a short - biased short - strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [12] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has increased, and India has allowed sugar exports. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR is around 0.60. It is recommended to construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [12] - **Cotton**: The progress of cotton picking, delivery, and processing has changed. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR is below 1.00. It is recommended to construct a short - biased short - call + short - put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [13] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The average price of corn has increased. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. It is recommended to construct a neutral short - call + short - put option combination strategy [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a seller neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they are trending upwards; for black metals, a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, a bull spread portfolio strategy can be built as they are rebounding [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts are presented, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 85,930, with a price increase of 10 and a trading volume of 7.33 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the volume PCR of copper options is 0.90, with a change of - 0.06 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and the maximum open interest of call and put options for each metal option are given. For example, the pressure point of copper options is 90,000, and the support point is 84,000 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and other implied volatility indicators of each metal option are presented, along with their changes and the differences between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 13.36% [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Build a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy, and the underlying shows a high - level consolidation and rebound trend [7] - Aluminum: Construct a bull spread portfolio strategy, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy, and the underlying shows a bullish high - level consolidation trend [9] - Zinc: Build a sell - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy, and the underlying shows a warming - up trend with resistance [9] - Nickel: Construct a sell - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered strategy, and the underlying shows a bearish consolidation trend [10] - Tin: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy, and the underlying shows a short - term high - level consolidation trend [10] - Lithium Carbonate: Construct a bull spread portfolio strategy, a sell - bullish call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy, and the underlying shows a recent bullish trend [11] Precious Metals - Gold: Build a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy, and the underlying shows a bullish trend with high - level consolidation [12] Black Metals - Rebar: Build a sell - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered strategy, and the underlying shows a bearish trend with resistance [13] - Iron Ore: Build a sell - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy, and the underlying shows a bearish consolidation trend [13] - Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Industrial Silicon): Build short - volatility strategies and corresponding spot hedging strategies, and the underlying shows a bearish trend with resistance [14] - Glass: Build a bear spread portfolio strategy, a short - volatility sell call + put option combination strategy, and a spot long - collar strategy, and the underlying shows a bearish trend with resistance [15]

Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped to 28.94%, providing a bottom support for global soybeans. However, the ratio is still relatively high year - on - year, not enough to generate a profitable CBOT soybean planting market. The marginal reduction in production mainly comes from the US and other small - scale producing countries, having no direct impact on the soybean trade flow. The soybean price needs further impetus from South American planting problems to break through the cost range. The price of soymeal will fluctuate within a range due to the repeated changes in import costs and crushing margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Soybean New - Crop Supply Turns to a Production - Reduction Pattern, but the Global Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains High In November, the USDA forecast further lowered the global soybean new - crop production by about 4 million tons, mainly due to the reduction in India, Ukraine, and the US. After the November adjustment, the 25/26 global soybean production and consumption are almost equal, and the supply - demand pattern has changed to decreasing supply and increasing demand. The global soybean predicted annual inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94%, providing bottom support but not enough for high CBOT soybean planting profits. The US soybean futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom range, and there is strong pressure around the cost of 1180 - 1200 cents per bushel. The marginal production reduction has little direct impact on the soybean trade flow, and a scenario of high soybean crushing margins may require further problems in South American planting [3]. 3.2 China's Purchase of US Soybeans Pressures Domestic Crushing Margins China bought at least 14 batches (about 840,000 tons) of US soybeans on Monday, and the purchase may continue. The current domestic soybean inventory is high, reaching about 9.9 million tons as of last weekend. Although the previous procurement has gradually declined and there may be inventory reduction from November to the end of February next year, with the increase in purchases of US soybeans for December and January shipments and the surplus from Brazil's bumper harvest, the domestic port soybean inventory may be around 4 million tons in March next year, remaining at a certain level [8]. 3.3 The Weather in South America is Normal, and Soymeal is Expected to Oscillate at the Bottom Range The US soybean price will continue to oscillate within a range, with strong support at 950 - 1000 cents per bushel and limited upside due to abundant global supply. The Brazilian soybean offer premium has declined. Recently, the exportable volume of Brazilian soybeans has decreased, and the demand for US soybeans has recovered, supporting the import cost. In the medium - term, after Brazil's rainy season in December, the market may trade on the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, causing the import cost to decline again, but with a clear bottom. The domestic crushing margin will gradually improve with expected inventory reduction, but the improvement may not be significant. Therefore, soymeal will oscillate within a range due to the changes in import costs and crushing margins [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: November 19, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Non - ferrous Metals Daily Report Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's reopening, stock market and geopolitical situations, and Fed officials' hawkish speeches. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors [5][9][11] Group 4: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: The equity market is weak, copper prices oscillate and decline. LME copper inventory increases, domestic warehouse receipts increase, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreases. The domestic copper spot import loss narrows, and the refined - scrap price difference narrows [4] - **Strategy View**: Although there are some negative factors in the sentiment, the copper raw material supply is tight, and the spot situation improves marginally after the price decline. The copper price has strong support. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 85400 - 86800 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 10600 - 10850 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The market sentiment is weak, and aluminum prices continue to decline. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreases significantly, and the domestic and foreign inventories change slightly. The spot discount in the domestic market decreases, and the trading improves [6] - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively volatile, and the overseas inventory is still at a low level. The aluminum price has strong support. If the domestic inventory can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price is expected to strengthen after oscillating. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21450 - 21700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 2760 - 2810 dollars/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index and LME lead price both decline. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory decreases slightly [8] - **Strategy View**: The lead raw material is still in short supply. The domestic lead ingot social inventory accumulates marginally. The lead price is in a weak oscillation state [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index and LME zinc price decline. The domestic social inventory decreases slightly, and the LME zinc warehouse receipts increase slowly [10] - **Strategy View**: The zinc raw material is in short supply, the zinc ingot supply decreases marginally, and the domestic social inventory accumulation slows down. The LME zinc spread decreases marginally. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short term [11] Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price declines. The upstream tin concentrate price decreases, and the smelting plant operating rate recovers but is still at a low level due to raw material supply shortages. The demand in emerging fields provides support [12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 285000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and for the overseas LME tin is 37000 - 39000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price is weak. The nickel ore price is stable and weak, and the nickel iron price accelerates its decline [15] - **Strategy View**: The recent nickel price decline is due to fundamental pressures. The short - term decline space is limited, but the risk of negative feedback from nickel ore price decline should be guarded against. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider building long positions lightly if the nickel iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 120000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 14500 - 15000 dollars/ton [16][17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot index of lithium carbonate rises, but the futures contract price declines [19] - **Strategy View**: The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a state of intense game. It is recommended to pay attention to the production schedule of lithium battery materials and cells, the changes in the main positions, and the equity market atmosphere. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 91000 - 95200 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declines, and the overseas import loss exists [22] - **Strategy View**: The overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. However, the price is close to the cost line, and the short - term reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price declines, the spot price is stable, and the social inventory increases [25] - **Strategy View**: The market supply is in surplus, the demand is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. The stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy declines, the position decreases, and the inventory decreases slightly [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy has strong support, and the demand is average. The price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short term [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season, with high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. In the short term, prices are likely to continue weak and volatile due to weak off - season demand and high plate inventory. However, with policy implementation and macro - environment improvement, steel demand may see a marginal inflection point later [2]. - For the black sector, compared to short - selling, finding positions to go long for a rebound may be more cost - effective. The height of the rebound depends on the introduction and strength of stimulus policies. The macro factor is more important than the weak fundamentals that have been priced in [9]. - In the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and the steel consumption end still has the basis for gradual recovery [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3090 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 86,672 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.655469 million lots, down 74,279 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3286 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 120,567 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.217174 million lots, down 46,346 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy View - Rebar shows a situation of both supply and demand decline and continuous inventory reduction, with a neutral overall performance. Hot - rolled coils have weak terminal demand, unable to effectively absorb production, and inventory continues to increase counter - seasonally [2]. - Affected by the Fed's hawkish remarks, market sentiment declined, and the consumption market cooled down in the short term. But in the long run, the easing expectation remains unchanged, and steel consumption is expected to gradually recover [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 792.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.44% (+3.50), and the open interest changed by - 10,108 lots to 471,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 908,000 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 795 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 53.55 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. Strategy View - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded significantly, with increases in both Australian and Brazilian shipments. On the demand side, the average daily pig iron output was 236,880 tons, up 2,660 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly [5]. - High inventory still suppresses the price, but the short - term increase in pig iron output supports the iron ore demand. In the macro - vacuum period, the market is more likely to follow the real - world logic, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On November 18, affected by the weakening external market sentiment, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fell 1.93% to close at 5680 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 190 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) fell 1.65% to close at 5474 yuan/ton. The Tianjin spot market price was 5500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 26 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy View - In the past week, the black sector continued to decline and fluctuate. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectations are expected to have a positive impact on sentiment and prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point [8]. - The fundamentals of manganese silicon are still not ideal and lack a major contradiction. If the commodity sentiment recovers and the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to possible disturbances in the manganese ore segment. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions, with low operational cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (SI2601) of industrial silicon closed at 8980 yuan/ton, down 1.10% (-100). The weighted open - interest changed by - 451 lots to 400,728 lots. The spot price of East China non - oxygen 553 was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change, and the basis was 370 yuan/ton [11]. - Strategy View: The supply - side contraction trend is emerging. The demand side shows a decline in polysilicon production and a possible reduction in industrial silicon procurement demand due to the planned production cuts in the organic silicon industry. Industrial silicon may face a situation of "both supply and demand being weak". The cost side provides support, and in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. Polysilicon - Market Quotes: The main contract (PS2601) of polysilicon closed at 52,210 yuan/ton, down 0.85% (-445). The weighted open - interest changed by +2239 lots to 236,480 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged, and the basis was 90 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy View: Polysilicon is still caught between reality and expectations. The production in November decreased, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is still highly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of platform companies and price feedback in the industrial chain [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1017 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.17% (-12). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 63.247 million boxes, up 0.18%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 5546 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 32,223 lots [17]. - Strategy View: The supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The enterprise inventory is high, and the spot price is under pressure. Although there is cost support and positive policy expectations, the current supply - demand imbalance and the decline in the futures market intensify the downward pressure on prices, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1214 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 1.38% (-17). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7073 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 858 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 16,055 lots [19]. - Strategy View: The soda ash industry supply is still at a relatively high level, and the downstream demand is mediocre. Some enterprises have a stronger willingness to support prices, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the changes in plant operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20].