Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research report on non - ferrous metals, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Market Analysis of Each Metal Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2512 contract closed at 88,370 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with an increase of 29,581 lots in the Shanghai Copper Index to 613,100 lots. The spot copper price soared, weakening downstream procurement sentiment, and the spot discount widened [1] - **Important Information**: The slowdown of the US core CPI in September increased the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. Indonesia may allow copper concentrate exports. SMM estimated that the electrolytic copper output in October would drop to 1.0825 million tons [1][3] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, and the supply of copper ore was tight, while consumption was weak with some resilience. The market was expected to have an increase in supply and weak demand this week [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy for single - side trading, continue to hold cross - market positive spreads, and consider cross - period positive spreads after the domestic inventory starts to decline. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract rose 11 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 5,441 lots to 488,900 lots. The spot price showed a narrow decline [7] - **Related Information**: Xinjiang and Shandong had alumina spot transactions. The national alumina inventory increased by 44,000 tons to 4.061 million tons as of October 23. The Australian alumina price decreased [8] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus of alumina increased after the downstream stocking was completed. The price was expected to bottom out in the short term, and a rebound might occur if production cuts expanded [11] - **Trading Strategy**: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November for single - side trading, with a short - term narrow rebound. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [11][12] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2512 contract rose 130 yuan to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 28,105 lots to 635,200 lots. The spot price increased [14] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. Some overseas aluminum smelters had production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased slightly [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment was positive. Overseas supply was tight, and domestic consumption had some resilience [18] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the external market for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [19] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract rose 35 yuan to 20,715 yuan/ton. The spot price remained stable [21] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The cast aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and the import and export data showed certain changes [21][22][24] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro factors were positive. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and demand had some support [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the aluminum price for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2512 rose 0.34% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 94 lots to 213,500 lots. The spot trading was not improved [29] - **Related Information**: The domestic zinc inventory increased slightly. Shengda Resources' subsidiary was approved to resume work [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply was abundant, and the external market was strong. The export profit widened, and the Shanghai Zinc price was likely to rise [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for single - side trading. Consider a buy - SHFE and sell - LME strategy based on export conditions. Sell out - of - the - money put options [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2512 fell 0.06% to 17,520 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 6,702 lots to 129,200 lots. The spot price decreased, and the procurement enthusiasm declined [36] - **Related Information**: A large lead - battery enterprise in East China planned to cut production. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term lead price was driven up by funds, but the medium - long - term fundamentals were under pressure [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on rallies for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage and options [39] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2512 rose 420 to 122,400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 12,478 lots. The spot premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased [41] - **Important Information**: Indonesia promoted a cooperation project with Huayou Cobalt. A new nickel brand applied for LME certification. Norilsk Nickel maintained its 2025 production forecast [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment improved, but the LME nickel inventory limited the upward space of the nickel price. The price was expected to fluctuate within a range [42] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract for options [43][44][45] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless - steel main contract SS2512 rose 10 to 12,815 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 27,223 lots. The spot price was stable [47] - **Important Information**: The export of Indonesian stainless steel to Taiwan increased, and a high - end stainless - steel project in Jiangsu was progressing [49] - **Logic Analysis**: Terminal demand was not optimistic at the end of the peak season, and the cost support was not strong. The price was boosted by the reduction of warehouse receipts and general commodity price increases [49] - **Trading Strategy**: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with attention to the upper resistance. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage [50][51] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2512 contract closed at 286,720 yuan/ton, up 3,260 yuan/ton or 1.15%, and the position increased by 6,739 lots to 75,935 lots. The spot price increased slightly, and the trading was not active [53] - **Related Information**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus. The US CPI growth was lower than expected. The domestic mobile phone shipment data was released [54][56] - **Logic Analysis**: The Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic policies were positive for the tin price, but the terminal demand recovery was slow. The supply of tin ore was tight [57] - **Trading Strategy**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to positive domestic macro expectations and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards options [58][59] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: The industrial silicon export volume in September was 70,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The import volume in January - September decreased by 64% year - on - year [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The production in the northwest was at a high level, and the southwest would reduce production in November. The demand was stable, and there was a possibility of inventory reduction. The short - term price was expected to fluctuate [62] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Go long on dips for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [64][65][66] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: The domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to September was 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49% [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The polysilicon production in the southwest would decrease in November. The demand for silicon wafers was average, and there was a possibility of inventory accumulation. The price was expected to strengthen after capacity integration [69] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold long positions for single - side trading, conduct reverse spreads on far - month contracts for arbitrage, and hold long call options [70][71][72] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2601 contract rose 2,020 to 81,900 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 50,361 lots. The spot price increased [74] - **Important Information**: The performance of Salt Lake Co., Ltd., EVE Energy, and Shengxin Lithium Energy was announced. Whengsheng Technology achieved large - scale supply of battery materials [75][77] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand was driven by the growth of power and energy storage, and the supply of lithium ore was tight. The inventory and warehouse receipts decreased. The market was bullish [77] - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on pullbacks for single - side trading. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [78] Group 3: Data Tables and Graphs - The report also provides daily data tables for each metal, including price, spread, inventory, and other information, as well as graphs showing the trends of price, spread, inventory, etc. for each metal [80][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to wait and see, but in the medium - term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - **Soybean Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 8234, up 40. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8454, 8534, and 8394 respectively. Basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 300 (unchanged), 220 (unchanged), and 160 (down 10) [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9100, down 22. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were 9000, 9050, and 9200 respectively. Basis in Guangzhou, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin were - 100 (unchanged), - 50 (unchanged), and 100 (unchanged) [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 2601 closing price was 9748, down 13. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong were 10118, 10128. Basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong were 370 (unchanged) and 380 (down 20) [2]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - For soybean oil, the 1 - 5 monthly spread was 166, down 12; for palm oil, it was 20, up 2; for rapeseed oil, it was 383, down 1 [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread was - 866 (down 53), OI - Y was 1514, and OI - P was 648 (up 9). The oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.01 [2]. - **Import Profits**: - The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a disk profit of - 245, with a CNF price of 1096 in November. The disk profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was - 885, with an FOB price of 1075 in November [2]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories (2025 Week 42, in 10,000 tons)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 54.8 this week, compared with 122.4 last week and 126.5 last year; palm oil inventory was 57.6 this week, compared with 49.0 last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 54.9 this week, compared with 57.1 last week and 40.3 last year [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 1.63% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.22% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.78% month - on - month [4]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 60.71 tons, up 3.14 tons (5.45%) week - on - week. The import profit was about - 250. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying the 05 - contract after a pullback [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 236.74 tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 125.03 tons, up 2.63 tons (2.15%) week - on - week. It is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, then consider lightly buying after a pullback [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 1.1 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. As of October 17, 2025, the coastal inventory was 54.9 tons, down 2.2 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased to around 1100 dollars, and the import profit was about - 900. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, wait and see; medium - term, maintain the idea of buying on dips [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [11]. 3.4 Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including those for spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [13][15]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Date: October 27, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short - term, with supply increasing and downstream demand remaining weak. Futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom, but the far - month peanuts may be stronger, and peanut 01 will oscillate strongly [4][8] - Peanut oil spot prices are stable, peanut meal has been stable recently, and the theoretical profit of oil mills from pressing is decent [8] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Disk | Futures | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest | Increase/Decrease Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK604 | 7922 | 8 | 0.10% | 512 | 16.89% | 1,690 | 23.63% | | PK510 | 8138 | 38 | 0.47% | 52 | - 18.75% | 425 | 3.91% | | PK601 | 7820 | 32 | 0.41% | 81,351 | - 11.27% | 182,998 | - 3.51% | [2] Spot and Basis | Spot | Henan Nanyang | Shandong Jining | Shandong Linyi | Rizhao Peanut Meal | Rizhao Soybean Meal | Peanut Oil | Rizhao First - Grade Soybean Oil | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Today's Quote | 8600 | 8400 | 8400 | 3250 | 2950 | 14580 | 8400 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | | Basis | 780 | 580 | 580 | Soybean Meal - Peanut Meal (-1) | | Peanut Oil - Soybean Oil (6180) | | | Import Price: Sudanese rice 8500 (change 0), Senegalese rice price not provided (change 0) [2] Spread | Peanut Inter - Period Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - Period | Spread | Change | Peanut Inter - Period | Spread | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK01 - PK04 (-102) | 24 | PK04 - PK10 | - 216 | - 30 | PK10 - PK01 | 318 | 6 | [2] Spot Price of Peanuts - Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 general cargo: 4.1 yuan/jin, stable compared to yesterday - Liaoning Changtu: 4.1 yuan/jin, stable compared to yesterday - Henan production area Baisha general cargo rice: 3.8 - 3.9 yuan/jin, stable compared to yesterday - Shandong Junan: 4.05 yuan/jin, stable compared to yesterday - Imported Sudan refined new rice: 8600 yuan/ton, stable compared to yesterday - Senegalese oil rice: 7600 yuan/ton, stable compared to yesterday [4] Peanut Oil and By - product Prices - Mainstream transaction price of peanut oil procurement by some oil mills: 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, theoretical break - even price of oil mills: 7920 yuan/ton - Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil: 14500 yuan/ton, stable compared to yesterday - Small - pressed fragrant peanut oil: 16500 yuan/ton, stable compared to yesterday - Rizhao soybean meal spot: 2950 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton compared to yesterday - 48 - protein peanut meal: 3200 yuan/ton [4][6] Group 5: Market Analysis - Henan peanut prices are falling, while Northeast peanut prices are stable. Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively weak in the short - term [4] - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with stable peanut oil and soybean oil prices. The by - product Rizhao soybean meal spot is strong, while peanut meal is weak in the short - term [4][6] Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Peanuts 01 and 05 are oscillating at low levels, and one can go long with a light position in the short - term [9] Inter - Month Spread - Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] Options - Sell and hold pk601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 7: Related Attachments - Figure 1: Shandong peanut spot price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 2: Peanut oil mill pressing profit (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 3: Peanut oil price (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 5: Peanut 10 - 1 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) - Figure 6: Peanut 1 - 4 contract spread (unit: yuan/ton) [15][21][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US corn report lowered the yield, and with the easing of Sino - US relations, US corn rebounded but remained in a narrow - range oscillation due to high production. China has set tariffs on US corn and sorghum, while foreign corn import profits are high. Domestic corn prices are under pressure, with short - term decline potential. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [4][7][8]. - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch, and attempt to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch. For options, a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations is suggested [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Market**: On October 27, 2025, most corn and starch futures contracts closed down. For example, C2601 closed at 2112, down 21 (-0.99%); CS2601 closed at 2425, down 16 (-0.66%). Trading volume and open interest also showed different changes [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in some regions declined. For instance, the price in Zhucheng Xingmao dropped 32 yuan, and the basis varied by region. Starch spot prices were stable, and the basis was positive. Price spreads between different contracts also changed [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Corn**: US corn is in a narrow - range oscillation. In China, the northern port flat - hatch price declined, and the northeast and north China corn prices dropped. The wheat - corn price spread widened, and the domestic breeding demand was stable. The short - term corn price has room to fall, and the market is concerned about the selling pressure of Jilin corn at the end of October [4][7]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants increased, and the corn price in Shandong was weak. Starch inventory decreased this week. Starch prices are mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking, and are expected to weaken in the short term [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Wait and see for 05 and 01 corn, try short - selling 01 starch [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Try to narrow the spread between 01 corn and starch [10]. - **Options**: Adopt a short - term strategy of cumulative put and call options with rolling operations [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes charts showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis and price spreads of corn and starch futures contracts, which visually reflect the price trends and relationships of corn and starch [14][16][22].

Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The Sino-US tariff negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, and the EC futures market continues to bet on the subsequent freight rate trend. Pay attention to the possible improvement of tariffs on shipments. On October 27, EC2512 closed at 1775 points, down 3.06% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line index released after the market today was 1312.71 points, up 15.11% month-on-month [6]. - The spot freight rate spread among major shipping companies has widened again. Considering the improvement of long-term contract cargo receipts, the spot freight rate center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually increase from November to December, and shipping companies are expected to continue to announce price increases [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for shipments is expected to gradually improve from November to December. The supply capacity in December will increase slightly. The Sino-US ship sanctions will bring cost increases and short-term supply chain disruptions. The progress of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous, and the Sino-US tariff negotiation sentiment has eased [7][9]. - Trading strategy: Hold the long position of EC2512 and pay attention to the Palestine-Israel negotiation, Sino-US tariff negotiation, and port congestion. For arbitrage, take a wait-and-see approach [10][11]. Group 2: Industry News - Sino-US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and reached a preliminary consensus on issues such as export control, suspension and extension of reciprocal tariffs, fentanyl, and ship fees [12]. - The United States signed a critical minerals agreement with Thailand and will maintain a 19% tariff on Thailand; reached a trade agreement framework with Vietnam and will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam; Trump suspended tariffs during the meeting with the Brazilian president [12]. - The United States threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Canada, and Canada expressed dissatisfaction [12]. - Israel approved the entry of an Egyptian technical team to search for hostages, and Palestinian factions agreed to establish an independent technical bureaucracy to govern the Gaza Strip, and Hamas will transfer administrative control to a temporary committee [13][14][15]. Group 3: Data Summary Futures Disk | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume (Lots) | Increase/Decrease Rate | Open Interest (Lots) | Increase/Decrease Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1,130.9 | -6.9 | -0.61% | 1,377.0 | 68.54% | 3,428.0 | -20.13% | | EC2512 | 1,775.0 | -56.0 | -3.06% | 27,748.0 | -20.98% | 27,995.0 | -7.45% | | EC2602 | 1,571.6 | -29.4 | -1.84% | 6,174.0 | 55.48% | 13,138.0 | 14.15% | | EC2604 | 1,178.8 | -0.8 | -0.07% | 2,045.0 | 18.48% | 14,146.0 | -0.55% | | EC2606 | 1,387.1 | -10.8 | -0.77% | 109 | -61.75% | 1,371 | -0.44% | | EC2608 | 1,480.3 | -28.7 | -1.90% | 138 | -22.91% | 1,249 | 2.63% | [4] Monthly Spread Structure | Spread | Change | Spread | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC10 - EC12 | -644 | 49.1 | EC10 - EC02 | -441 | 22.5 | | EC12 - EC02 | 203 | -26.6 | EC10 - EC04 | -48 | -6.1 | | EC12 - EC04 | 596 | -55.2 | EC12 - EC06 | 388 | -45.2 | | EC02 - EC04 | 393 | -28.6 | EC04 - EC06 | -208 | 10.0 | [4] Container Freight Rates | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | Container Freight Rate (Weekly) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS European Line (Points) | 1312.71 | 15.11% | -40.54% | SCFIS US West Line (Points) | 1107.32 | 28.24% | -60.70% | | SCFI: Composite Index | 1403.46 | 7.11% | -31.94% | SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa (USD/TEU) | 3755 | 5.64% | -15.20% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US West (USD/FEU) | 2153 | 11.21% | -54.44% | SCFI: Shanghai - South Africa (USD/TEU) | 2851 | 1.40% | -32.98% | | SCFI: Shanghai - US East (USD/FEU) | 3032 | 6.27% | -38.98% | SCFI: Shanghai - South America (USD/TEU) | 2619 | -1.47% | -58.00% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Europe (USD/TEU) | 1246 | 8.82% | -36.10% | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kansai (USD/TEU) | 312 | 0.00% | 3.31% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Mediterranean (USD/TEU) | 1764 | 9.36% | -23.70% | SCFI: Shanghai - Japan Kanto (USD/TEU) | 321 | 0.00% | 5.59% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Persian Gulf (USD/TEU) | 1423 | 14.02% | 19.28% | SCFI: Shanghai - Southeast Asia (USD/TEU) | 466 | 3.79% | 10.95% | | SCFI: Shanghai - Melbourne (USD/TEU) | 1385 | 5.64% | -31.64% | SCFI: Shanghai - South Korea (USD/TEU) | 138 | 0.00% | -4.17% | [4] Fuel Costs | WTI Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | Brent Crude Oil Near - Month (USD/Barrel) | Price | Month-on-Month (%) | Year-on-Year (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 60.86 | | -0.38% | -14.59% | 64.92 | -0.52% | -14.0% | [4]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3180 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3120 yuan (+20), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+30), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (+20) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Market trends: The black metal sector continued to strengthen. Steel spot trading was average overall, with better trading at lower prices. Last week's data showed a decline in hot metal production but still at a high level, with an increase in hot-rolled coil and rebar production. Steel demand has recovered recently, and inventory has shifted from factory warehouses to social warehouses. Rebar destocking has accelerated, and hot-rolled coils have started to destock. Steel apparent demand has increased [5] - Influencing factors: The recovery of steel demand is due to the drop in temperature, the rise in thermal coal prices, frequent coal mine accidents, and the speculation of environmental governance in Wuhai coal mines, which has led to the recent strength of coking coal. Currently, steel valuations are low, and steel mill profits are shrinking, providing some support at the bottom. However, plate inventory is high in the fourth quarter, with slower capital release, slow downstream payment collection, and a year-on-year decline in the number of projects, so steel prices still face pressure [5] - Policy impact: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's draft of the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry" has a long-term positive impact on steel but a limited short-term impact. After the news was released, the market showed some follow-up increases [5] - Short-term outlook: Steel prices will remain range-bound in the short term. They will continue to fluctuate with coking coal, and a breakthrough requires more factors. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but there is pressure at the top [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to continue holding the 1-5 positive spread and the long position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - Environmental restrictions in Tangshan: Due to environmental protection requirements, Tangshan plans to implement a 30% production limit on blast furnaces for 4 days starting from the 27th. As of October 24, the daily average hot metal production in Tangshan was 396,900 tons. If the blast furnace production is limited by 30%, the daily average hot metal production will be affected by 91,000 tons, and a total of 409,500 tons of hot metal production will be affected in 4.5 days. The impact on construction steel mills is limited, with TSDH expected to have a daily average impact of 8,000 tons on hot metal. The overall production of the rebar production line remains basically unchanged, still at a level of 8,000 - 10,000 tons per day [6][7] - APEC meeting: President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea from October 30 to November 1 and pay a state visit to South Korea. Regarding the issue of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents during the APEC meeting, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated that the two sides are in close communication, and China will release further information in a timely manner [7]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Black Metal Daily" dated October 27, 2025, by researcher Zhou Tao [1] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF main contract closed at 5564, up 22 for the day and 128 for the week, with a trading volume of 132,349 (down 7,389) and an open interest of 174,287 (down 7,891) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5802, up 30 for the day and 64 for the week, with a trading volume of 130,341 (down 87,247) and an open interest of 345,980 (down 4,913) [2] Spot - For 72% FeSi, prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5320, 5270, 5300, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with daily and weekly changes varying [2] - For Si - Mn 6517, prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5680, 5580, 5650, 5750, and 5720 respectively, with daily and weekly changes varying [2] Basis/Spread - For silicon - iron, Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 244, Ningxia - main contract basis was - 294, etc., with daily and weekly changes [2] - For manganese - silicon, Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 122, Ningxia - main contract basis was - 222, etc., with daily and weekly changes [2] - SF - SM spread was - 238, down 8 for the day and up 64 for the week [2] Raw Materials - For manganese ore in Tianjin, Australian lump was 38.8 (down 0.2 for the day and 0.4 for the week), South African semi - carbonate was 34 (unchanged), and Gabon lump was 39.7 (down 0.1 for the week) [2] - For blue charcoal small materials, prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were 750, 810, and 800 respectively, with weekly increases [2] Group 3: Market Judgment Trading Strategy - On October 27, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon - iron main contract rose 0.4% and the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.52% [5] - For silicon - iron, spot prices were stable to weak on the 27th. Supply increased slightly, demand was affected by steel inventory and production restrictions. It rebounded with the market but still faced supply - demand pressure and could be a short - side configuration after valuation repair [5] - For manganese - silicon, manganese ore spot was stable to weak, and manganese - silicon spot was stable. Supply decreased slightly but remained high, demand was affected by steel inventory and iron - water production. It could also be a short - side configuration after valuation repair [5] Specific Strategies - Unilateral: Follow the short - term rebound, but still short - side configuration after low - valuation repair [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6] Group 4: Important Information - NMT announced the November 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China: Mn36% (min) South African semi - carbonate lump was $4.1/ton - degree (up $0.05) [7] - A large steel mill in Hebei raised the coke purchase price, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 27, 2025 [7] Group 5: Related Attachments - There are multiple charts including ferroalloy main contract trends, basis, spreads, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits, which provide visual data references for the market situation [11][12][13][14]

Report Information - Report Name: Stock Index Futures Data Daily Report [1] - Date: October 27, 2025 [2] IM Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7,495.38 points, up 1.03%. The main contract, IM2512, rose 0.75% to close at 7,322.6 points [4]. - The total trading volume of the four IM contracts was 214,742 lots, down 9,711 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 358,844 lots, up 9,755 lots from the previous day [5]. - The main contract was at a discount of 172.78 points to the spot, down 51.54 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -15.95% [5]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 1000 | 7,495.38 | 1.03% | 26,534 | 8% | 4,582 | 15% | - | - | - | | IM2511 | 7,399.40 | 0.76% | 45,173 | 5% | 670 | 6% | 72,266 | 2,184 | 128 | | IM2512 | 7,322.60 | 0.75% | 137,585 | -7% | 2,021 | -6% | 187,588 | 4,103 | 330 | | IM2603 | 7,105.20 | 0.78% | 23,471 | -3% | 335 | -1% | 78,846 | 2,254 | 134 | | IM2606 | 6,891.60 | 0.86% | 8,513 | -9% | 118 | -7% | 20,144 | 1,214 | 33 | [4] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IM contracts were 0.71 points, 0.74 points, 1.23 points, and 45.97 points respectively [5]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 7,495.38 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 7,399.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 0.71 | -95.98 | -1.3% | -18.2% | | Next Month | 7,322.60 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 0.74 | -172.78 | -2.3% | -15.9% | | Quarter 1 | 7,105.20 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 1.23 | -390.18 | -5.3% | -13.8% | | Quarter 2 | 6,891.60 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 45.97 | -603.78 | -8.2% | -13.4% | [14] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IM2511, IM2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [18][20][22] IF Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 300 was 4,716.02 points, up 1.19%. The main contract, IF2512, rose 1.24% to close at 4,684.4 points [23]. - The total trading volume of the four IF contracts was 113,332 lots, down 2,849 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 262,244 lots, up 6,831 lots from the previous day [27]. - The main contract was at a discount of 31.62 points to the spot, down 5.74 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -4.56% [27]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 | 4,716.02 | 1.19% | 26,220 | 26% | 6,727 | 22% | - | - | - | | IF2511 | 4,701.00 | 1.30% | 26,252 | 8% | 370 | 9% | 41,727 | 1,286 | 71 | | IF2512 | 4,684.40 | 1.24% | 71,074 | -4% | 998 | -3% | 157,785 | 4,370 | 266 | | IF2603 | 4,656.00 | 1.26% | 12,499 | -12% | 174 | -11% | 56,157 | 314 | 94 | | IF2606 | 4,620.60 | 1.40% | 3,507 | 2% | 49 | 3% | 6,575 | 861 | 11 | [23] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IF contracts were 1.05 points, 1.89 points, 7.02 points, and 37.42 points respectively [32]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 4,716.02 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 4,701.00 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 1.05 | -15.02 | -0.3% | -4.5% | | Next Month | 4,684.40 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.89 | -31.62 | -0.7% | -4.6% | | Quarter 1 | 4,656.00 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 7.02 | -60.02 | -1.3% | -3.2% | | Quarter 2 | 4,620.60 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 37.42 | -95.42 | -2.0% | -3.2% | [32] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IF2511, IF2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [36][38][39] IC Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the CSI 500 was 7,379.39 points, up 1.67%. The main contract, IC2512, rose 1.76% to close at 7,254.4 points [41]. - The total trading volume of the four IC contracts was 136,694 lots, down 1,034 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 252,585 lots, up 8,981 lots from the previous day [42]. - The main contract was at a discount of 124.99 points to the spot, down 26.26 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -11.65% [42]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 500 | 7,379.39 | 1.67% | 23,205 | 19% | 4,718 | 29% | - | - | - | | IC2511 | 7,310.40 | 1.74% | 27,275 | -2% | 398 | 0% | 49,174 | 1,344 | 86 | | IC2512 | 7,254.40 | 1.76% | 87,202 | 3% | 1,264 | 5% | 140,233 | 5,789 | 244 | | IC2603 | 7,083.00 | 1.74% | 16,929 | -12% | 240 | -10% | 51,880 | 409 | 88 | | IC2606 | 6,903.40 | 1.87% | 5,288 | -8% | 73 | -6% | 11,298 | 1,439 | 19 | [41] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IC contracts were 1.83 points, 1.92 points, 3.7 points, and 60 points respectively [42]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 7,379.39 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 7,310.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 1.83 | -68.99 | -0.9% | -13.2% | | Next Month | 7,254.40 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.92 | -124.99 | -1.7% | -11.6% | | Quarter 1 | 7,083.00 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 3.70 | -296.39 | -4.0% | -10.5% | | Quarter 2 | 6,903.40 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 60.00 | -475.99 | -6.5% | -10.5% | [51] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IC2511, IC2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [56][58][60] IH Futures Daily Quotes - The closing price of the SSE 50 was 3,069.53 points, up 0.78%. The main contract, IH2512, rose 0.74% to close at 3,066.8 points [62]. - The total trading volume of the four IH contracts was 56,298 lots, down 2,681 lots from the previous day; the total open interest was 98,162 lots, up 2,833 lots from the previous day [62]. - The main contract was at a discount of 2.73 points to the spot, down 5.51 points from the previous day; the annualized basis rate was -0.6% [63]. Key Data of Each Contract | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Change | Turnover | Turnover Change | Open Interest | Interest Change | Margin | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3,069.53 | 0.78% | 7,041 | 28% | 1,853 | 19% | - | - | - | | IH2511 | 3,067.40 | 0.77% | 11,960 | -8% | 110 | -7% | 15,335 | 218 | 17 | | IH2512 | 3,066.80 | 0.74% | 37,476 | -5% | 345 | -4% | 65,887 | 1,268 | 73 | | IH2603 | 3,069.20 | 0.77% | 5,043 | 3% | 46 | 3% | 14,472 | 850 | 16 | | IH2606 | 3,067.40 | 0.80% | 1,819 | 13% | 17 | 14% | 2,468 | 497 | 3 | [62] Basis and Dividend Impact - The dividend impacts of the four IH contracts were 0.59 points, 1.43 points, 7.32 points, and 26.56 points respectively [63]. - The basis and annualized basis rates of each contract are as follows: | Contract | Closing Price | Maturity Date | Remaining Days | Dividend | Basis Points | Basis Rate | Annualized Basis Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot | 3,069.53 | - | - | - | - | - | - | | Current Month | 3,067.40 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | 25 | 0.59 | -2.13 | -0.1% | -1.0% | | Next Month | 3,066.80 | 2025 - 12 - 19 | 53 | 1.43 | -2.73 | -0.1% | -0.6% | | Quarter 1 | 3,069.20 | 2026 - 03 - 20 | 144 | 7.32 | -0.33 | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Quarter 2 | 3,067.40 | 2026 - 06 - 22 | 238 | 26.56 | -2.13 | -0.1% | -0.1% | [73] Main Seats' Positions - The positions of the main seats in IH2511, IH2512, and other contracts are detailed in the report, including the trading volume, long positions, and short positions of each seat and their changes from the previous day [77][79][

研究所 贵金属研发报告 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属窄幅波动，伦敦金当前交投于 4078 美元附 近，伦敦银当前交投于 48.3 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最终收跌 1.24%，报 934.14 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收跌 0.47%，报 11394 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅走高，当前交投于 98.92 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率同样走高，当前交投于 4.04%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元高开高走，当前交投于 7.11 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.中美贸易谈判：新华社消息，当地时间 10 月 25 日至 26 日，中美经贸中方 牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to the weak fundamentals of oils and fats and the relatively weak macro - environment, oils and fats will fluctuate weakly. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, its price mainly follows the overall trend of oils and fats, and the basis and monthly spread of soybean oil are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited. US soybean oil is oscillating at a low level, and the bottom support may be at 48 cents per pound. - In the medium term, if the biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are implemented smoothly and the macro - environment improves, oils and fats have great potential for an upward trend and may show an oscillating upward movement, and soybean oil is also expected to follow the upward trend [37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Smooth Sino - US Negotiations, US Soybeans Expected to Be Exported to China - On October 26, the Sino - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China, and China would purchase a large amount of US soybeans. The CBOT soybean series rose significantly on that day, while the domestic soybean series showed limited movements. - Currently, the US has an average tariff of 57.6% on China, and China has an average tariff of 32.6% on the US, with a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. If the two sides cancel reciprocal tariffs, China's tariff on US soybeans may be reduced to 13%, and if all previously imposed tariffs are cancelled, it could return to 3%. However, even at a 3% tariff, there is no crushing profit for near - term shipments in China this year. Whether China will purchase US soybeans in Q1 next year depends on tariff adjustments and CNF prices. - If a large - scale US soybean purchase agreement is reached, China will gradually purchase US soybeans at appropriate times and prices in the future. Although short - term crushing profit is not suitable, the supply expectation will be looser, and the soybean supply gap in Q1 next year may be repaired [3][4]. 2. India's Massive Increase in Soybean Oil Imports, Inflection Point of Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory Approaching - Since August this year, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Brazil's domestic crushing volume this year is lower than last year but slightly higher than the 5 - year average, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in the future. From January to August, Brazil's soybean oil consumption was lower than last year, with a 10% year - on - year decrease in cumulative consumption, while the export volume increased by 15% year - on - year, with a 54% increase in exports to India, accounting for 70% of total exports. As of August, Brazil's soybean oil inventory was 520,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period. Argentina's exports of soybean oil to India increased by 11% year - on - year, and as of early September, its inventory was 220,000 tons, at a low level in the same period. The combined inventory of Brazil and Argentina is above the 5 - year average and higher than last year [10]. - Due to the low international soybean - palm oil price difference this year, India's import profit of soybean oil has increased, leading to a significant increase in imports, with a 42% year - on - year increase in cumulative imports in the 24/25 fiscal year as of September, approaching 4.4 million tons. It is expected that imports in October will remain at a relatively high level in the same period, and the annual imports may reach 4.8 million tons, meeting the market expectation of 4.4 - 4.9 million tons. The market also expects that India's edible oil imports will increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with a limited year - on - year increase in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, which is beneficial to soybean oil prices [19]. - As of September 29, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, and the market expects it to exceed 70%. Brazil's soybean sowing is faster than in previous years, with a sowing rate of 21.7% as of October 18, compared with 17.6% in the same period last year. The new - crop planting area is expected to increase, and the general expectation for the 2025/26 production is 175 - 179 million tons. - Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons or 3.25% from the previous week. The soybean arrival peak has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decline slightly, with an inflection point likely to occur at the end of October. However, the overall supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, and the basis and monthly spread are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited [26]. 3. Positive Expectation of Oils and Fats Biodiesel Policy, Potential Upward Momentum Still Exists - In the US biodiesel sector, in June this year, the EPA proposed to increase the mandatory blending of biomass diesel in the US in 2026 to 5.61 billion gallons, much higher than the previous market expectation of 4.65 - 5.25 billion gallons, an increase of 2.26 billion gallons compared to 2025. If calculated based on this blending volume, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may exceed 7.4 million tons, with an increase of 1.4 - 1.5 million tons. In August, the EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications for SRE, with a total exemption of about 5.34 billion gallons of RINs from 2016 - 2024, but only the exemption quotas from 2023 - 2024 have actual compliance value. In September, the EPA proposed to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted under the SRE plan to large refineries. Although the final RVO and SRE plans are uncertain, it is certain that the US biodiesel demand will increase next year, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [30]. - In Brazil, the National Energy Policy Council has increased the biodiesel blending ratio from 12% to 14% since March 2024 and plans to increase it by 1% annually. Originally, the B16 policy was expected to be implemented in March next year, which is estimated to bring an increase of 550,000 - 700,000 tons in biodiesel consumption and about 400,000 - 500,000 tons in soybean oil consumption. However, the Brazilian government may postpone the implementation of the B16 policy due to incomplete feasibility studies. As of August, the biodiesel blending rate was about 15.7%, slightly exceeding the B15 target. The price difference between biodiesel and diesel is narrowing but still negative, which means there is still profit in biodiesel production. Even if the B16 policy is postponed, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may still increase [31][32].