研究所 贵金属研发报告 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 10 月 27 日 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，贵金属窄幅波动，伦敦金当前交投于 4078 美元附 近，伦敦银当前交投于 48.3 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最终收跌 1.24%，报 934.14 元/克; 沪银主力合约最终收跌 0.47%，报 11394 元/千克。 2.美元指数: 美元指数小幅走高，当前交投于 98.92 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率同样走高，当前交投于 4.04%附近。 4.人民币汇率:人民币兑美元高开高走，当前交投于 7.11 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.中美贸易谈判：新华社消息，当地时间 10 月 25 日至 26 日，中美经贸中方 牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to the weak fundamentals of oils and fats and the relatively weak macro - environment, oils and fats will fluctuate weakly. Soybean oil has no prominent core contradiction, its price mainly follows the overall trend of oils and fats, and the basis and monthly spread of soybean oil are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited. US soybean oil is oscillating at a low level, and the bottom support may be at 48 cents per pound. - In the medium term, if the biodiesel policies of the US and Indonesia are implemented smoothly and the macro - environment improves, oils and fats have great potential for an upward trend and may show an oscillating upward movement, and soybean oil is also expected to follow the upward trend [37]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Smooth Sino - US Negotiations, US Soybeans Expected to Be Exported to China - On October 26, the Sino - US economic and trade teams concluded a two - day consultation in Kuala Lumpur. The US Treasury Secretary indicated that the US would no longer consider imposing a 100% tariff on China, and China would purchase a large amount of US soybeans. The CBOT soybean series rose significantly on that day, while the domestic soybean series showed limited movements. - Currently, the US has an average tariff of 57.6% on China, and China has an average tariff of 32.6% on the US, with a 23% import tariff on US soybeans. If the two sides cancel reciprocal tariffs, China's tariff on US soybeans may be reduced to 13%, and if all previously imposed tariffs are cancelled, it could return to 3%. However, even at a 3% tariff, there is no crushing profit for near - term shipments in China this year. Whether China will purchase US soybeans in Q1 next year depends on tariff adjustments and CNF prices. - If a large - scale US soybean purchase agreement is reached, China will gradually purchase US soybeans at appropriate times and prices in the future. Although short - term crushing profit is not suitable, the supply expectation will be looser, and the soybean supply gap in Q1 next year may be repaired [3][4]. 2. India's Massive Increase in Soybean Oil Imports, Inflection Point of Domestic Soybean Oil Inventory Approaching - Since August this year, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit has been at a relatively low level compared to the same period in history. Brazil's domestic crushing volume this year is lower than last year but slightly higher than the 5 - year average, and it is expected that there will be no significant increase in the future. From January to August, Brazil's soybean oil consumption was lower than last year, with a 10% year - on - year decrease in cumulative consumption, while the export volume increased by 15% year - on - year, with a 54% increase in exports to India, accounting for 70% of total exports. As of August, Brazil's soybean oil inventory was 520,000 tons, at a relatively high level in the same period. Argentina's exports of soybean oil to India increased by 11% year - on - year, and as of early September, its inventory was 220,000 tons, at a low level in the same period. The combined inventory of Brazil and Argentina is above the 5 - year average and higher than last year [10]. - Due to the low international soybean - palm oil price difference this year, India's import profit of soybean oil has increased, leading to a significant increase in imports, with a 42% year - on - year increase in cumulative imports in the 24/25 fiscal year as of September, approaching 4.4 million tons. It is expected that imports in October will remain at a relatively high level in the same period, and the annual imports may reach 4.8 million tons, meeting the market expectation of 4.4 - 4.9 million tons. The market also expects that India's edible oil imports will increase to over 17 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, with a limited year - on - year increase in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, which is beneficial to soybean oil prices [19]. - As of September 29, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, and the market expects it to exceed 70%. Brazil's soybean sowing is faster than in previous years, with a sowing rate of 21.7% as of October 18, compared with 17.6% in the same period last year. The new - crop planting area is expected to increase, and the general expectation for the 2025/26 production is 175 - 179 million tons. - Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%. As of October 17, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons or 3.25% from the previous week. The soybean arrival peak has passed, and domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to gradually decline slightly, with an inflection point likely to occur at the end of October. However, the overall supply of domestic soybean oil is still sufficient, and the basis and monthly spread are running weakly, but the decline space is expected to be limited [26]. 3. Positive Expectation of Oils and Fats Biodiesel Policy, Potential Upward Momentum Still Exists - In the US biodiesel sector, in June this year, the EPA proposed to increase the mandatory blending of biomass diesel in the US in 2026 to 5.61 billion gallons, much higher than the previous market expectation of 4.65 - 5.25 billion gallons, an increase of 2.26 billion gallons compared to 2025. If calculated based on this blending volume, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may exceed 7.4 million tons, with an increase of 1.4 - 1.5 million tons. In August, the EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications for SRE, with a total exemption of about 5.34 billion gallons of RINs from 2016 - 2024, but only the exemption quotas from 2023 - 2024 have actual compliance value. In September, the EPA proposed to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted under the SRE plan to large refineries. Although the final RVO and SRE plans are uncertain, it is certain that the US biodiesel demand will increase next year, and the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel will also increase [30]. - In Brazil, the National Energy Policy Council has increased the biodiesel blending ratio from 12% to 14% since March 2024 and plans to increase it by 1% annually. Originally, the B16 policy was expected to be implemented in March next year, which is estimated to bring an increase of 550,000 - 700,000 tons in biodiesel consumption and about 400,000 - 500,000 tons in soybean oil consumption. However, the Brazilian government may postpone the implementation of the B16 policy due to incomplete feasibility studies. As of August, the biodiesel blending rate was about 15.7%, slightly exceeding the B15 target. The price difference between biodiesel and diesel is narrowing but still negative, which means there is still profit in biodiesel production. Even if the B16 policy is postponed, the consumption of soybean oil in biodiesel may still increase [31][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Polysilicon: Hold long positions [1] - Industrial silicon: Buy on dips [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For polysilicon, the supply slightly exceeds demand in October, with a small inventory build - up. The futures price correction is due to approaching the 2511 contract delivery and the non - establishment of the platform company. However, the 50000 level of the 2511 contract has obvious support. It is more cost - effective to take long positions on dips and wait for supply - side benefits [5]. - For industrial silicon, the current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The downstream's acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon has increased, and the actual transaction price of industrial silicon spot has not significantly decreased. The basis is at a relatively high level this year. The short - term downward space of the futures price is limited, and one can try to take long positions on dips [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - **Supply and demand**: In October, the silicon wafer production schedule increased by 3GW to 62GW compared with September, corresponding to a polysilicon demand of about 124,000 tons. The polysilicon output in October is about 130,000 tons, with a small inventory build - up. The current polysilicon inventory is about 500,000 tons, including about 250,000 tons in upstream inventory, about 200,000 tons in downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons in warehouse receipts and trader inventory [5]. - **Trading logic**: The futures price correction is due to approaching the 2511 contract delivery and the non - establishment of the platform company, but the 50000 level of the 2511 contract has obvious support. There is buying power for warehouse receipts below 50000 in the 11 contract. It is more cost - effective to take long positions on dips and wait for supply - side benefits [5]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold long positions for single - side trading; no arbitrage strategy; buy call options [6]. Industrial silicon - **Supply and demand**: This week, the weekly output of DMC decreased by 2.83% to 45,000 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 1.48% to 31,000 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat at 58.6%. The weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 1.05% to 98,500 tons. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.3 million tons to 559,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.01 million tons to 170,500 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 23,720 tons [7][15][26]. - **Trading logic**: The current inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle", prone to positive feedback between futures and spot. The downstream's acceptance of high - priced industrial silicon has increased, and the actual transaction price of industrial silicon spot has not significantly decreased. The basis is at a relatively high level this year. The short - term downward space of the futures price is limited, and one can try to take long positions on dips [7]. - **Trading strategy**: Buy on dips for single - side trading; sell out - of - the - money put options; no arbitrage strategy [8]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market review**: This week, the industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 8920 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton to varying degrees [12]. - **Downstream demand data**: The weekly output of DMC decreased by 2.83% to 45,000 tons, the weekly output of polysilicon decreased by 1.48% to 31,000 tons, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat at 58.6% [15]. - **Industrial silicon output**: This week, the weekly output of industrial silicon decreased by 1.05% to 98,500 tons. The number of open furnaces decreased by 4 this week. Yunnan and Sichuan silicon plants may shut down furnaces on a large scale at the end of the month, and it is expected that the output of industrial silicon will start to decrease next week [26]. - **Industrial silicon inventory**: The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 0.3 million tons to 559,000 tons, the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.01 million tons to 170,500 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 23,720 tons [27]. - **Related product prices**: The spot price of industrial silicon weakened this week. The prices of DMC and terminal products increased slightly, and the operating rate of organic silicon intermediates decreased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy increased slightly, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. The raw material prices remained stable [33][37][46][49]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price trend**: This week, the spot price of polysilicon increased. The prices of some models of silicon wafers, batteries, and some components decreased [54][60][64]. - **Component fundamentals**: Currently, domestic component orders are average, and the inventory is moderately high. The component production schedule in October decreased slightly to 46GW compared with September [73]. - **Battery fundamentals**: The export demand for batteries is good, and the inventory of specialized battery manufacturers is 7.1GW, which is moderate. With the downward adjustment of the component production schedule in October, the battery production schedule increased to 56GW [77]. - **Silicon wafer fundamentals**: This week, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises increased, and the weekly output of silicon wafers increased to 14.73GW. The silicon wafer inventory is 18.47GW. The silicon wafer production schedule in October increased by 3GW to 62GW compared with September [82]. - **Polysilicon fundamentals**: This week, the polysilicon output decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 258,000 tons. It is expected that the polysilicon output in October will be about 130,000 tons. The Southwest production capacity of Tongwei Co., Ltd. has started to reduce the load, and it is expected that the output in November will decrease by 20,000 tons. There are also rumors of potential production cuts at its Inner Mongolia base, which may affect the output by 4000 - 5000 tons [89].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic zinc fundamentals have not changed significantly recently. Although the zinc concentrate processing fee has been adjusted down, smelters are still profitable, and the supply of refined zinc continues to increase. The overseas inventory has slightly increased but remains at a relatively low level. Coupled with the impact of the capital side, the LME zinc price is strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets has further intensified, and the export profit has further widened. The zinc price in Shanghai is likely to rise rather than fall, and one can try to go long at low prices. [4] - The traditional peak season for zinc consumption is coming to an end, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. However, attention should still be paid to the boosting effect of domestic policies on consumption. [4] - The export window has opened, and some domestic zinc ingots have been delivered to warehouses in Southeast Asia. The export volume and frequency need to be monitored. If there is a large - scale delivery overseas, one should stop profit in time for the previous operation of shorting SHFE and going long LME, and change the strategy to go long SHFE and short LME in advance. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Trading Logic - In the mining end, domestic smelters have been continuously snapping up domestic zinc concentrates, leading to a continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees. Imported ore is still at a loss, but due to the continuous decline in domestic zinc concentrate processing fees, imported zinc concentrate traders have also reduced their quotes. [4] - At the smelting end, the recent decline in zinc prices and domestic TC has narrowed smelting profits. However, the by - product revenue is still considerable, and smelters' profits are still around 1,000 yuan/ton, with the smelting start - up rate remaining high. In October, although some domestic smelters carried out maintenance, some previously - maintained smelters resumed production, and the overall domestic refined zinc output may increase significantly. [4] - In terms of consumption, the traditional peak season for zinc consumption is passing, and domestic zinc consumption is expected to gradually weaken. [4] - Inventory data shows that as of October 23, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 162,100 tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons compared with October 20 and a decrease of 600 tons compared with October 16. The LME zinc inventory on October 23 was 37,600 tons, an increase of 275 tons compared with October 17. [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: One can try to go long on zinc in Shanghai at low prices. [4] - Arbitrage: One can pre - arrange the operation of going long SHFE and shorting LME according to the export situation. [4] Chapter 2: Market Data - No specific data analysis content provided in the given text, only some market data indicators such as spot premium, absolute price and monthly spread, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc, social inventory, etc. are listed. [6][12][15] Chapter 3: Fundamental Data Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate production from January to August 2025 was 8.2907 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 593,700 tons or 7.71%. In July, global zinc concentrate production was 1.0976 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 127,500 tons or 13.14%. [28] - In September 2025, SMM's domestic zinc concentrate production was 314,500 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.99%. In October, it is expected to be 300,900 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.32%. [28] - As of September, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 10.63 days to 26.3 days compared with the same period last year. Recently, although the raw material inventory of smelters has decreased month - on - month, it is still above the safety production margin. [28][42] - The inventory of zinc concentrates at major domestic ports increased by 10,800 tons to 391,400 tons month - on - month. [4][28] Zinc Ore Import - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.008 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49%. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. [38] - In October, considering the seasonal reduction of mines in the fourth quarter and the strong production enthusiasm of smelters driven by profits, the demand for zinc ore is high. However, the loss of imported zinc ore in October has further expanded compared with September, and domestic smelters are actively buying domestic zinc ore instead of imported ones. The spot import of imported zinc ore is light, and the import volume in October is expected to have no further room for growth. [30] Domestic Ore Total Supply - Overall, the supply of domestic ore has decreased, and there is an expected reduction in imported zinc concentrates. The domestic zinc concentrate supply in October is expected to decrease. [41] Zinc Ore Processing Fee - The monthly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates in November is 3,000 yuan/ton; on October 24, the weekly processing fee for Zn50 domestic zinc concentrates was reduced by 150 yuan to 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index decreased by $8.5/ton dry to $110.25/ton dry month - on - month. [46] - Currently, the profit of domestic mines is about 4,220 yuan/ton, and domestic smelters' production loss is about 700 yuan/ton (excluding by - product revenue). Including by - product revenue, smelters' profit is about 1,000 yuan/ton. [47] Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to August 2025, global refined zinc production was 9.1482 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12,700 tons or 0.14%; global refined zinc consumption was 8.9683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,800 tons or 0.19%. From January to August 2025, the global refined zinc surplus was 179,900 tons. [51] - In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.35%. The global refined zinc demand was 1.179 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The global refined zinc surplus was 47,900 tons. [51] Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - In September 2025, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 92.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.02%. By scale, the operating rate of large - scale refined zinc enterprises was 93.15%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; that of medium - scale refined zinc enterprises was 94.31%, a month - on - month decrease of 10.23%; and that of small - scale refined zinc enterprises was 84.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%. [54] - According to SMM data, the SMM China refined zinc output in September decreased by 26,100 tons or 4.17% month - on - month to 600,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.19%. The cumulative output from January to September was 5.069 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. It is expected that the domestic refined zinc output in October 2025 will be 622,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons or 3.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.54%. The cumulative output from January to October 2025 is expected to be 5.692 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. [54] Zinc Ingot Import and Export - From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.27%. In September, the import volume of refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.61%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.03%. In September, the export volume of refined zinc was 2,500 tons, with a net import of 20,200 tons. [57] - In October, the domestic refined zinc output is expected to increase, but considering that the import window is basically closed, the import of zinc may decrease. The domestic refined zinc supply may increase slightly month - on - month, and attention should be paid to the export situation. [58]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the log spot market this week showed a weakly stable pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with prices under pressure." The cost of imported logs has increased, providing rigid support to the futures market, but the spot market is weakening, and the basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The demand is limited, and the impact of new US tariffs on export orders may be concentrated in early November. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The log spot market fundamentals are in a weakly stable pattern. The arrival volume at ports increased by 5% week - on - week to 438,000 cubic meters, 13 - port inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.92 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 10.3% to 63,200 cubic meters. The main port price of radiata pine remained flat at 760 - 780 yuan/cubic meter, knot - free wood dropped by 20 yuan/cubic meter, and spruce rose by 30 yuan due to shortage. The November overseas offer increased by 5 dollars to 120 dollars [6] - **Logic Analysis**: In November, the import cost of New Zealand radiata pine increased by about 40 yuan/cubic meter, supporting the futures market. However, the spot price of knot - free wood has fallen, and the market expects the general wood to follow suit. The basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still high, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains. The new US tariffs may impact export orders in November, and the demand is limited. For the 2501 contract, if the spot price falls below 750 yuan, the seller's hedging window will open [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Cost: The import cost of New Zealand radiata pine in November has increased, providing support to the futures market, but the spot price is weakening, and the basis is expected to change [6] - Inventory: The 13 - port inventory is still at a high level, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains after the end of the low - price sales in Jiangsu [6] - Demand: The new US tariffs may impact export orders, and the consumption intensity is limited due to the combination of "improved funds + reduced construction starts" in housing and non - housing projects [6] - Delivery: For the 2501 contract, the cost of registered warehouse receipts is around 810 - 820 yuan/cubic meter, and the futures price is at a premium. If the spot price falls, the seller's hedging window will open [6] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: From October 18 - 24, 2025, 11 ships with 410,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week. 8 ships with 310,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters. From October 20 - 26, 2025, 12 ships with about 438,000 cubic meters of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters week - on - week [17] - **Log Inventory**: As of October 17, the total log inventory in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American log inventory remained unchanged at 90,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [20] - **Log Demand**: As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters week - on - week. The capital availability rate of construction sites increased, but the number of projects decreased. The capital improvement was concentrated in the southwest and east regions and large - scale central enterprises [25] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port remained at 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce in Rizhao Port rose by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan/cubic meter due to shortage [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber in Shandong was 1,280 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [38] - **Import Log Costs**: In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 1 dollar to 115 dollars/cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce decreased by 3 euros to 125 euros/cubic meter. Some foreign merchants reported the November CFR price of New Zealand radiata pine at 120 dollars/cubic meter, an increase from October [44]

Report Title Lead Weekly Report: Pay Attention to the Impact of Capital Flows, Lead Prices May Rise and Then Fall [1] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still have upward momentum due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure, and social inventories may gradually accumulate slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic - **Trading Logic and Strategy** - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: Domestic lead concentrate supply and demand are in a tight balance, with domestic processing fees at 350 yuan/metal ton and SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fees at - 125 dollars/dry ton. After the lead price increase, scrap battery purchase prices of secondary lead smelters did not rise significantly, and recyclers were reluctant to sell. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead continued to increase, and raw material demand also increased. With the increase in the operating rate of secondary lead smelters, the price of lead - containing waste is expected to rise [4]. - **Smelting**: The average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.57%, a 0.93% decline from last week. Some smelters in Hunan and North China had production changes. The SMM four - province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 42.21%, a 7.10% increase from last week. The smelting profit improved, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters was boosted, with the operating rate expected to rise next week [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.35%, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The energy storage battery market performed best, while the electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had differences. High lead prices may affect battery enterprise orders and production [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, SMM's five - region social lead ingot inventory was 31,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from October 20 and October 16. On October 23, LME inventory was 135,400 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from October 17. In the long - term, domestic social inventory may gradually accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still rise due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure. Short positions can be gradually established at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see. - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Other Sub - sections** - **1.2 Futures Price**: Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading and positions is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] - **1.3 Price Spread**: Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead, LME lead 0 - 3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is covered [9] - **1.4 Inventory Data**: It includes LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory [12] - **1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory**: It involves smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly and weekly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, and primary lead smelter finished product inventory [16] 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - It includes global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports [21] - **2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - Information on domestic total lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [24] - **2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary** - It covers the price of lead - containing waste, scrap battery price, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory [29][30] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **3.1 Global Refined Lead** - It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand [37][39] - **3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export** - It involves import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss [42] - **3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit** - It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [43] - **3.4 Primary Lead Supply** - It covers primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production [48] - **3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit** - It includes the cost and profit of large - scale and small - to - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [50][54] - **3.6 Secondary Lead Supply** - It involves secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and secondary lead bullion production [60] - **3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply** - It includes domestic total lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export [64] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **4.1 Lead - Acid Battery** - It includes lead - acid battery enterprise operating rate, dealer finished product inventory, export volume, enterprise finished product inventory, and import volume [71] - **4.2 Lead Alloys and Plates** - It involves lead alloy price, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export [74] - **4.3 Automobile** - It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production [76][77] - **4.4 Motorcycle, Power, and Communication** - It covers motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power project (grid project and power source project) [80][81][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The paper - making sector is oscillating at the bottom due to loose supply and demand. Pulp shows a pattern of "weak softwood and stable hardwood", and double - offset paper remains in a low - level stalemate in the short term [1][9]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Pulp has a "high inventory + weak demand" situation, with softwood pulp under pressure and hardwood pulp relatively stable. Double - offset paper has loose supply and demand, with price close to cash cost and limited supply increase, but weak social demand [9]. - **Strategies**: - **Unilateral**: For SP2501, wait and see; if port inventory drops below 2 million tons and basis strengthens, go long. For OP2501, mainly wait and see, and short against the lower edge of the spot price [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the SP11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity [8]. - **Options**: Wait and see for SP options; sell OP2601 - C - 4300 for OP options [8]. Part 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Pulp**: The supply - demand contradiction of softwood is prominent, and the spot price is suppressed. Hardwood is relatively resistant to decline but has limited upside space due to high inventory, maintaining a "weak softwood, stable hardwood" pattern [9]. - **Double - offset paper**: The price is close to cash cost, and the factory's willingness to hold prices is strong. However, due to weak social demand and high inventory, it is in a low - level stalemate in the short term [9]. Part 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply and Inventory**: - **Double - offset paper**: Production is 20.7 million tons (+2.0%), capacity utilization is 53.9% (+0.9pct), and enterprise inventory is 133.1 million tons (+1.2%). Production increased, but demand was weak, and inventory continued to rise [9][20]. - **Coated paper**: Production is 8.5 million tons (+7.6%), capacity utilization is 63.1% (+4.8pct), and enterprise inventory is 36.8 million tons (+1.7%). Supply increased significantly, but demand was limited, and inventory rebounded slightly [23][28]. - **Domestic pulp**: The sample production of hardwood pulp is 23.5 million tons, and the weekly average production profit is about 110 yuan/ton (+0.9%). The overall supply increased slightly, and the profit rebounded slightly [32]. - **Wood pulp**: The total inventory of five major ports is 2.055 million tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons (-0.9%). The domestic chemimechanical pulp production profit is 151 yuan/ton (-4.4%) [35]. - **White cardboard**: Production is 36.0 million tons (+4.35%), capacity utilization is 79.65% (+3.32pct), and factory inventory is 1.08 million tons (+0.47%). Supply recovered rapidly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly [41]. - **Price**: - **Double - offset paper**: The average ex - factory price is 4643 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 244 yuan/ton [9]. - **Coated paper**: The average enterprise - inclusive tax price is 4975 yuan/ton, and the price is weakly stable [51]. - **Pulp**: Softwood pulp in Shandong is 5444 yuan/ton (-1.22%), hardwood pulp is 4257 yuan/ton (+0.16%), natural pulp is 4864 yuan/ton (+0.29%), and chemimechanical pulp is 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [57].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：利好传来逢低做多 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：震荡市等待做多机会 4 | | 豆粕：大豆压榨利润继续修复 盘面逐步反弹 5 | | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格继续下跌 郑糖价格相对抗跌 5 | | 油脂板块：短期盘面震荡略偏弱 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：玉米和淀粉: 玉米继续上量，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 价格小幅反弹 8 | | 花生：花生油厂仍未大量收购，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 11 | | 钢材：河北开启环保限产，铁水产量继续下滑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部有支撑 上行有阻力 13 | | 铁矿：中期偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：宏观情绪带动反弹，但供需压力仍存 15 | | 贵金属：多空因素交织，关注央行周波动风险 17 | | --- | | 铜：中美达成初步共识，铜 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate has increased, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 71% and the Yulin area at 44% as of October 23. Coal production has recovered, and the daily coal output in Erdos and Yulin is around 4 million tons. The pithead price has been rising due to strong demand [4]. - On the supply side, the raw coal price is firm, the auction price of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest is strong, the profit of coal - to - methanol is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains stable at a high level, resulting in a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - At the import end, the US dollar price has slightly declined, and imports remain in a positive spread situation. Iranian plants are mostly operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly declined, and the overseas operating rate is at a high level. The European and American markets have slightly declined, the China - Europe price difference is oscillating, and the Southeast Asian re - export window is closed. Iran has loaded 750,000 tons in October. Affected by sanctions, Iranian tenders have offered significant discounts, and there is an abundance of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - In terms of demand, the traditional downstream has entered the off - season with a decline in the operating rate, while the operating rate of MTO plants has increased. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while others are operating at less than full capacity [4]. - Regarding inventory, the import arrival has slightly decreased, the port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range [4]. - Overall, the international plant operating rate has increased, some plants in Iran have restarted, and the daily output has increased to around 35,000 tons. Imports are gradually resuming, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the overall trading is light. The basis of spot prices is stable. The downstream demand is stable, the arrival volume is stable, the MTO operating rate has slightly declined, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the short term, methanol is mainly oscillating weakly under the background of high inventory [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Trading strategies: For single - side trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; in the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of October 23, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 75.85%, a decrease of 0.70 percentage points from last week but an increase of 1.29 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region was 84.89%, a decrease of 1.07 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants was 67.80%, a decrease of 0.95 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: In the period from October 18 - 24, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 1,069,909 tons, a decrease of 25,950 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 73.34%. Some Iranian plants had different operating conditions, and only the M5 large - scale plant in South American MHTL was in operation [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of 14:00 on October 22, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol at ports was 352,000 tons, including 316,300 tons of foreign vessels (251,800 tons of visible and 64,500 tons of non - visible, with 188,800 tons of visible in Jiangsu) and 35,700 tons of domestic vessels (6,500 tons in Jiangsu and 29,200 tons in Guangdong) [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of October 23, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 87.25%, a decrease of 0.83 percentage points from last week. The overall olefin industry operating rate decreased this week [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, a month - on - month decrease of 9.97%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 74.4%. The formaldehyde operating rate was 38.87%. The overall capacity utilization rate of traditional downstream industries decreased compared with last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 51,300 tons, a decrease of 11,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 18.57% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises was 360,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 215,700 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of October 22, 2025, the total methanol port inventory was 1,512,200 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 30,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 9,200 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the chemical coal in the northwest region rebounded, and the methanol price declined. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi, it was 480 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2,260 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan), and the price in the north line was 2,000 yuan/ton (- 60 yuan) [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand was sporadically released, and the ex - factory price stopped falling and rebounded; this week's view is that demand is released periodically, and the ex - factory price is mainly stable with an upward trend [5] - Short - term domestic demand is still limited, agricultural demand has ended, compound fertilizer has not started on a large scale, and the spot market sentiment is still low. The price difference between domestic and international markets is still large, but the export window is about to close, and the impact of the international market on the domestic market is greatly weakened. In the short term, it is slightly stronger, and in the medium - to - long term, it is still weak [5] - The trading strategy is to be slightly stronger in the short term and weaker in the medium - to - long term for unilateral trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Due to partial device maintenance, the daily output has dropped to around 187,000 tons. The Indian tender price has dropped to around $400 CFR, and the price difference between domestic and international markets is large, but the export window is about to close [5] - The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stockpiling is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the inventory of urea can be used for more than half a month, so the procurement sentiment for raw materials is not high [5] - The inventory of urea production enterprises has increased by 14,700 tons to around 1.63 million tons, which is at a high level overall [5] - With the firm rise of futures, downstream agricultural follow - up, and better weather, the shipment of compound fertilizer products in the central plains has accelerated, and raw material procurement at low prices for rigid demand has improved the order receipt of manufacturers, and the ex - factory price has been raised [5] - The ex - factory price in the mainstream delivery area has rebounded to around 1,540 - 1,570 yuan/ton, and the downstream acceptance has decreased. After the meeting, there is no stimulus policy, and the demand sustainability needs to be observed [5] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply - National**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 16 - 22, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 81.23%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 67.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.19% [6] - **Supply - Shandong**: In the 42nd week of 2025 (October 16 - 22, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of Shandong urea was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Melamine**: In the 43rd week of 2025 (October 17 - 23, 2025), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 48.30%, a decrease of 6.88 percentage points from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer**: In the 43rd week of 2025 (October 17 - 23, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 27.71%, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 percentage points [6] - **Demand - Compound Fertilizer Urea Demand**: As of October 24, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 850 tons, an increase of 450 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 112.5% [6] - **Demand - Northeast Arrival Volume**: This week (October 17 - 24, 2025), the arrival volume of urea in the Northeast was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [6] - **Demand - Advance Receipts**: As of October 22, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.41 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [6] - **Inventory - Enterprise**: On October 22, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons from the previous week [6] - **Inventory - Port**: In the 43rd week, the sample inventory of urea ports was 210,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons [6] - **Valuation**: In terms of profit, the price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal increased, the spot price of urea rebounded, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 125 yuan/ton, the coal - water slurry production had a loss of 110 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 124 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton [6]