研究所 能源化工研发报告 甲醇日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 甲醇日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：期货盘面弱势震荡，最终报收 2013（-10/-0.49%）。 2、现货市场：生产地，内蒙南线报价 1920 元/吨，北线报价 1960 元/吨。关中地区 报价 1880 元/吨，榆林地区报价 1910 元/吨，山西地区报价 1970 元/吨，河南地区报价 2000 元/吨。消费地，鲁南地区市场报价 2070 元/吨，鲁北报价 2160 元/吨，河北地区 报价 2070 元/吨。 西南地区，川渝地区市场报价 1980 元/吨，云贵报价 2040 元/吨。港 口，太仓市场报价 1990 元/吨，宁波报价 1970 元/吨，广州报价 1970 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 截至 2025 年 11 月 19 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.93 万吨，较上一期数据减 少 6.43 万吨。其中，华东去库 3.86 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 2.57 万吨。 【逻辑分析】 供应端，煤制甲醇利润在 320 元/吨附近，甲醇开工率高位稳定，国内供应持续宽 松。进口端，美金价格持续下跌，进口维持顺挂，伊朗全部正常， ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡，最终报收 1663（+1/+0.06%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价窄幅提涨，成交转弱，河南出厂报 1550-1580 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1600-1610 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1530-1560 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1550-1560 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 2025 年 11 月 19 日，中国尿素企业总库存量 143.72 万吨，较上周减少 4.64 万吨，环 比减少 3.13%。本周期尿素价格震荡上行，东北储备需求明显增加，部分企业受其利好 影响去库明显。 【逻辑分析】 新增出口配额消息影响消退，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价下跌， 成交尚可。山东地区主流出厂报价领涨，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价下跌为主； ...

Group 1: Market Review - On November 19, the port market showed a stalemate between supply and demand, with overall stable quotes. The quotes for 5500 - calorie coal were 840 - 850 yuan/ton, 5000 - calorie coal were 740 - 750 yuan/ton, and 4500 - calorie coal were 640 - 650 yuan/ton. In different regions, non - electric enterprise coal prices also had corresponding ranges [2]. Group 2: Important Information - On November 14, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that the power production growth of above - scale industries in China accelerated. In October, the power generation of above - scale industries was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September; the daily average power generation was 25.81 billion kWh. From January to October, the power generation of above - scale industries was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Group 3: Logic Analysis - Supply: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in the main coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 18, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall. Import: China's demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. Demand: This week, the demand was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand still did not improve. Supply: The rainfall in Indonesia still affected the tight supply of goods, the number of overseas cargoes was small, and miners were more willing to hold prices. Most power plants' operating loads were in the range of 60% - 70%, and the overall inventory of power plants was at a medium - high level. In market procurement, most power plants preferred to fulfill long - term contracts, and some power plants, expecting the subsequent market coal price to rise, chose to conduct a small amount of tender procurement for market coal. Inventory: Railway transportation returned to normal. The daily average transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. The port inflow was stable, and the outflow remained high. As of November 19, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 24.4 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, but the inventory continued to decline, while the inventory of inland power plants was neutral. Overall, in mid - November, the coal production in the main producing areas was low. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily average output of around 3.8 million tons, and the supply tightened. The power plant inventory continued to decline, the import profit was realized, and coastal power plants increased their procurement efforts. The port inflow and outflow were at low levels, and the port inventory fluctuated within a range. As the high - temperature weather across the country subsided, the daily consumption of power plants hovered at a low level, and the coal consumption was average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants was lower than the same period, and they continued to make rigid - demand purchases. The port FOB price rose continuously. With strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, the coal mine operating rate was low, and the production was average. The demand for chemical coal was acceptable, and the increase in the mine - mouth price narrowed. It is expected that the coal price will slow down in the short term [4].

低硫供应缺口短期内仍存 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 俄罗斯离线炼厂产能减少同时大型出口港口Tuapse和 Novorossiysk陆续受袭影响出口，俄罗斯近端高硫出口较前两个月下行，预期 一定程度上缓解近端燃料油供应充裕压力。墨西哥及中东出口环比稳定。需求端，26年新一批原油配额预期于11月提前下发，燃油进 料需求预期环比减弱。 低硫供应缺口短期内仍存。中东Al-Zour装置延期回归，12月前预期不再有低硫出口供应。泛新加坡地区低硫过剩供应预期随着RFCC 装置开 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report (November 19, 2025) [1] - Researcher: Tong Chuan [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3071222 [2] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0017010 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term trading involves many factors. Market risk preference is declining due to concerns about economic data and corporate earnings, and unclear prospects of Fed rate cuts in December. Despite an increasing supply - demand surplus, the structural contradictions of refined oil products support crude oil valuation, making oil prices relatively strong among risk assets. Considering geopolitical conflicts, weather uncertainties, shale - oil production cuts, and SOR purchases, oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The short - term Brent main contract is expected to trade between $62 - 65 per barrel [2] Summary by Directory Trade Logistics - As the US sanctions on November 21 approach, at least 7.7 million barrels of Russian Urals crude related to two sanctioned producers will reach the Indian coast [2] - Affected by the approaching US sanctions, the global crude oil transportation volume reached a new high last week, with nearly 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil either reaching their destinations or in floating storage facilities [2] - Due to damage from a Ukrainian attack on November 14, the loading of crude oil at Russia's Novorossiysk port was delayed by two to three days [2] - Russia's oil supply and prices have been continuously declining. As of November 16, the country's average daily crude oil exports were 3.36 million barrels, a decrease of about 900,000 barrels from the week of November 9, the lowest level since the end of August [2] Refinery Dynamics - Multiple companies are vying to acquire the international business of Russian energy giant Lukoil. The sale is being accelerated due to upcoming US sanctions [2] - According to the Ministry of Petroleum, Nayara Energy's crude oil processing volume increased by 42% in October, reaching 402,000 barrels per day, the highest level since June [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels and may rebound in the short - term; treasury bond futures will have limited price fluctuations and slow roll - over progress [19][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal will have obvious bullish factors and fluctuate; sugar prices will be affected by import volume and sugar mill start - ups, with limited downward space; the oil and fat sector will be affected by US biodiesel policies and maintain volatile; corn and corn starch prices will fall with the callback of spot prices; pig prices will still face supply pressure; peanut prices will oscillate at the bottom; egg prices will be stable with a slight decline; apple prices will be stable; cotton and cotton yarn prices will be mainly volatile [27][33][36][40][42][44][50][52][56]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices will fluctuate within a range; coking coal and coke prices will be weak; iron ore prices will be bearish; ferroalloy prices will be supported by cost and fluctuate within a range [58][60][63][65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals' volatility may increase; copper prices should focus on lower support; alumina prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are strong; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices; zinc prices will have wide - range fluctuations; lead prices will oscillate within a range; nickel prices will weaken; stainless steel prices will be weak due to supply - demand imbalance; industrial silicon prices can be bought on dips; polysilicon prices will oscillate before the platform company is established; lithium carbonate prices may fall after rising [68][73][78][80][84][86][88][90][93][95][98][99]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the market fell, with major stock index futures contracts declining. The risk appetite decreased, but technology stocks showed signs of stopping the decline [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility and short - term rebound; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads on dips [19]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with limited price fluctuations. The market capital was slightly tightened, and the roll - over progress was slow [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, hold (TL - 3T) positions and consider long T contract current - quarter minus next - quarter spread; for options, no specific strategy is provided [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index slightly declined, and the index of related products slightly increased. Domestic supply has uncertainties, and the price has support [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect price support and oscillation; for arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided; for options, no specific strategy is provided [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: International sugar prices may bottom out and oscillate. Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to high - volume imports and sugar mill start - ups, but there is support at the current price [32][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can consider building long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell put options at low levels [33]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Market Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel policy, external market oil and fat prices rose, but the final plan is not yet determined. Palm oil may have limited rebound, and soybean oil follows the overall trend, while rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can use short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [37]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The external market of corn rebounded, and domestic corn prices may fall with the decline of port prices [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can short on dips for December corn in the external market, stay on the sidelines for January corn, and wait for dips for May and July corn; for arbitrage, shrink the spread between January corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [40]. Pig - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply pressure has improved, but the overall supply is still high, and pig prices still face pressure [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can arrange a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell wide - straddle strategies [42]. Peanut - **Market Performance**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and futures prices will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on May peanuts on dips; for arbitrage, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [45]. Egg - **Market Performance**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline [47][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [51]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year. The fundamentals are strong, but the market is volatile [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should exit and wait and see; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [53]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: New cotton will be listed in large quantities, and the increase in production may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and cotton prices will be mainly volatile [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading expects US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton to be mainly volatile; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [56]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black - metal sector was weak at night, and steel prices were restricted by supply - demand structure. However, there is cost support, and hot - rolled coil performs better than rebar [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect range - bound fluctuations; for arbitrage, long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; for options, stay on the sidelines [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: After short - term replenishment, the market is cautious, and prices are weak. In the medium - term, there is demand for winter storage [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect weak short - term fluctuations and consider going long near previous lows; for arbitrage, hold the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal; for options, stay on the sidelines [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is weak. Ore prices are expected to be bearish [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be bearish; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [64]. Ferroalloy - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of ferroalloy are both weak, and prices are supported by cost and will oscillate at the bottom [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect bottom - bound oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The ADP weekly employment data was weak, and precious metals rebounded slightly. With the upcoming release of key data, volatility may increase [68][70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines; aggressive investors can try to go long near yesterday's low [71]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, and copper prices are under pressure. However, there is support around 85,000 yuan/ton [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [74]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply of alumina is still in surplus, and prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate before substantial production cuts [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect short - term bottom - grinding oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have decreased, and aluminum prices have fallen, but the fundamentals are still strong [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, focus on the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China; for options, stay on the sidelines [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices. The cost provides support, but market trading activity has declined [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The domestic zinc mine supply is tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely due to macro factors [85][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold profitable long positions; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [86]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Domestic lead inventories are increasing, and lead prices are under pressure. They will be affected by overseas macro factors [87][88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold remaining short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [88]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel is in a state of oversupply of deliverable products. In the off - season, inventories increase, and prices are weak. However, there may be production cuts [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: Stainless steel demand is in the off - season, costs are falling, and inventories are increasing. Prices will follow nickel prices and continue to decline [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [94]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened, but downstream prices have risen, and costs are firm. It can be bought on dips [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should buy on dips; for arbitrage, conduct the Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage; for options, no specific strategy is provided [95]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased in November, and the market will oscillate before the platform company is established [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: There are increasing differences at high levels, and prices may fall after rising [99]. - **No specific trading strategy is provided in the text**.

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 【粕类日报】需求改善明显 美豆盘面大幅上涨 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3041 | - 2 | 天津 | 2 0 | 1 0 | 1 0 | | 0 5 | | 2832 | 1 8 | 东莞 | -40 | -40 | 0 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2947 | 1 7 | | -50 | -40 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | 0 1 | | 2431 | -18 | 南通 | 1 9 | - 9 | ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 11 月 18 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8320 | 38 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8590 | | | | 8620 | 8490 | 300 | -10 | 270 | 0 | 170 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8708 | 28 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8658 | | | | 8728 | 8818 | -50 | 0 ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and dated November 18, 2025, focusing on the hog market [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall hog supply is stable, and prices are fluctuating slightly. The subsequent supply pressure in the hog market may still be significant, and the general trend of spot hog prices is expected to be weak. Futures prices are also under pressure in the medium to long - term [1][3][4] Group 4: Spot Price Summary - Today, hog spot prices across the country showed a slight rebound. The average price remained unchanged at 11.29 yuan/kg. Some regions had price increases, such as Hebei with an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg, while Guizhou had a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg [3] - The scale enterprises' hog出栏量 increased overall. Although the monthly hog出栏 plan decreased, the overall supply pressure still exists. Ordinary farmers'出栏 enthusiasm decreased, and the overall出栏 pressure improved compared to before [3] - The number of secondary fattening entrants decreased recently. The price difference between large and small hogs decreased, and hog prices declined, reducing the enthusiasm for replenishment [3] - The current hog出栏 weight rebounded, and the supply of large - weight hogs is still relatively large. The slowdown in出栏 rhythm supported hog prices to some extent. Due to the high hog inventory and relatively large出栏 weight, the subsequent supply pressure in the hog market may still be reflected, and the general trend of hog spot prices is expected to be weak [3] Group 5: Futures Price Summary - Hog futures prices showed a downward trend, affected by the large subsequent supply pressure. However, due to the full reflection of negative factors in the previous decline of the futures market, the recent futures market reaction to the decline in spot prices was not obvious [4] - In the short - term, the change in monthly hog出栏量 may be limited, and prices will generally fluctuate. In the medium - term, due to the high overall inventory and obvious supply pressure, the general trend of spot prices will be downward. Therefore, both spot and futures prices may fluctuate recently, but in the medium to long - term, hog prices are under obvious downward pressure, and the futures market also has certain pressure [4] Group 6: Other Price and Data Summary - Piglet and sow prices remained unchanged this week compared to last week, at 209 yuan and 1546 yuan respectively [3] - The spot breeding profit for self - breeding and self - raising decreased by 25.60 yuan to - 114.81 yuan/head, and for purchasing piglets, it decreased by 30.09 yuan to - 205.64 yuan/head [3] - The slaughter volume decreased by 228 heads to 165,897 heads. The price difference between standard hogs and medium - sized hogs increased by 0.02 yuan, while the price difference between large hogs and standard hogs decreased by 0.05 yuan [3] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] - Options: Implement a strategy of selling wide straddles [5]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3200 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3210 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The black metal sector showed divergence today, with coal and coke dropping significantly, iron ore continuing to rise, and steel maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend. Steel spot trading volume was generally weak, significantly weaker than yesterday [5] - Last week's data showed a slight resumption of blast furnace production, but the overall output of the five major steel products still declined, with rebar production cut more than plate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, but hot-rolled coils saw a slight increase in inventory. Except for cold-rolled steel, the apparent demand for each steel product declined, suppressing steel price performance [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, still exerting pressure on the upside. However, recent steel production cuts and plate inventory reduction have alleviated some pressure, with the main fluctuations coming from raw materials. Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the situation requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils are still performing better than rebar overall, and it is expected that the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will still be in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold long positions in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - In October 2025, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; the cumulative production from January to October was 158.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. In October, China's medium and heavy wide strip steel production was 18.145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; the cumulative production from January to October was 187.496 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In October, China's wire rod (coil) production was 10.861 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the cumulative production from January to October was 113.005 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [9] - In October 2025, China's air conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; the cumulative production from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. In October, the national refrigerator production was 8.788 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In October, the national washing machine production was 11.035 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. In October, the national color TV production was 18.04 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the cumulative production from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]