1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, causing the Shanghai zinc price to fluctuate widely. In the short term, the expected reduction in domestic smelter production and the continuous decline in domestic social inventories support the zinc price. However, the weakening consumption and continuous inventory build - up overseas put pressure on the LME zinc price, which in turn affects the Shanghai zinc price. Traders should focus on the start - up of domestic smelters and macro factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: In the mining sector, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have stabilized. The import window for zinc concentrate has reopened, and the price difference between imported and domestic zinc concentrates has narrowed, reducing the smelters' enthusiasm for domestic zinc concentrates. The trading volume of imported zinc ore has been light recently. On the smelting side, the reduction in zinc concentrate processing fees and lower zinc prices have shrunk the profits of most domestic smelters, and there is an expected further increase in the reduction of domestic refined zinc production in December [5]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. Domestic refined zinc consumption has gradually weakened as the consumption season approaches [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from December 11 and 3,500 tons from December 15. The continuous decline in domestic inventories provides some support for the zinc price [5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - **Single - side trading**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Arbitrage trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Market Data - The report mentions aspects such as spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai zinc, as well as social inventories, bonded area inventories, LME inventories, LME cancelled warrant ratios, and LME inventory distribution by region, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [7][13][16][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to October 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 10.4892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 737,600 tons or 7.56%. Overseas zinc concentrate production was 7.0222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 532,600 tons or 8.21%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 205,000 tons or 6.28%. In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. It is expected that December production will increase by 2.76% month - on - month to 320,000 tons [28]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: As of November, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 0.48 days year - on - year to 20.8 days, but has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in major domestic ports increased by 12,000 tons month - on - month to 312,000 tons [28][43]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 340,900 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.3489 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In November, the import volume is expected to recover [30]. - **Import Source**: In October 2025, the top three import sources were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%) [30]. 3.3.3 Domestic Ore Supply - Overall, domestic ore supply has decreased, and imported zinc concentrates are expected to decline. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrates in November may decrease [42]. 3.3.4 Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In December, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 2,000 yuan/ton. On December 19, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was adjusted down by 0.43 US dollars/dry ton to 50.13 US dollars/dry ton [47]. 3.3.5 Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to October 2025, global refined zinc production was 11.5147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 159,500 tons or 1.4%; consumption was 11.3905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 102,900 tons or 0.91%. There was a cumulative surplus of 124,200 tons. In October, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76%, and demand was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%, with a shortage of 600 tons [51]. 3.3.6 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 87.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06%. Large - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 91.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%; medium - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 85.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%; small - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 76.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.81% [54]. - **Production Volume**: In November, SMM's domestic refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. It is expected that December production will be 570,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.49% [55]. 3.3.7 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - **Import**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. - **Export**: In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, with a net import of 10,300 tons. The export volume is expected to increase in December, which will alleviate the domestic surplus situation to some extent [58][59]. 3.3.8 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. The report also mentions the raw material and finished product inventories of primary processing enterprises, but no specific data is provided [5][66][67]. - **End - use Industries**: The report covers real - estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [73][84][94][97].

橡胶板块2025年12月第3周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：泰国越南天气正常，下游轮胎需求平稳 ◼【综合分析】 现货价格：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶市场均呈现价格上涨趋势。天然橡胶方面，上海全乳胶均价上涨至14975元/吨，涨幅1.53%；山东市场 STR20#混合胶均价上涨至14479元/吨，涨幅0.78%。顺丁橡胶方面，华北地区BR9000市场价格上涨至10500元/吨，涨幅3.4%；华北地区 BR9000均价上涨至10390元/吨，同比去年同期跌22.64%。 供应方面：天然橡胶因云南产区全面停割，导致国内供应减少，而海外供应则呈现增长趋势。具体来看，云南11月底停割、海南产区逐步减 产；海外方面，泰国、越南天气正常，新胶呈现季节性增量。顺丁橡胶市场供应相对稳定，但受到茂名石化检修影响，供应略有减少，周内 振华新材料装置正常生产，茂名石化延续停车；山东裕龙石化恢复正常生产，其他装置维持正常生产为主。 需求方面：本周天然橡胶和顺丁橡胶下游需求表现比较平稳，主要下游轮胎企业开工小幅调整。下游采购方面，下游逢低刚需补货，采买情 绪一般。 库存方面：天然橡胶青岛地 ...

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report: Weak Supply and Demand, Lead Price in Range-bound Fluctuation [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic lead market shows weak supply and demand. The low inventory and reduced production of recycled lead support the Shanghai lead price, while the weakening consumption restricts the upward space of the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will maintain range-bound fluctuations [4]. - Trading strategies suggest a range-bound approach for single-sided trading, and temporary observation for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market and Logic 1.1 Trading Logic and Strategy - **Supply Side**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee this week reached 300 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM weekly processing fee for imported lead concentrate reached -135 US dollars/dry ton. Near the end of the year, the lead concentrate market remained inactive. For imported ores, some bids were as low as -200 US dollars/dry ton, with only a small amount of rigid-demand transactions. The processing fees for domestic ores were mostly for pre-sales in 2026, and remained stable in December [4]. - **Smelting Side**: The weekly operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.35%, a 1.82% increase from last week. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Although some smelters in Hunan were affected by environmental inspections, the electrolytic lead production remained stable this week, and is expected to decline slightly next week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan increased production after maintenance, and a small - scale smelter also slightly increased production. The SMM weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a 3.75% decrease from last week. Due to air pollution control in East and North China, smelting enterprises in Anhui significantly reduced production. If the control is lifted this weekend, normal production will resume [4]. - **Consumption Side**: The weekly comprehensive operating rate of SMM's five - province lead - acid battery enterprises was 74.23%, a 0.41% decrease from last week. Since December, the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has not significantly improved actual consumption. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the decline in vehicle sales has dragged down battery consumption, leading some enterprises to reduce or plan to reduce production. The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season, and the operating rates of most medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of December 18, the total social inventory of SMM lead ingots in five regions was 20,500 tons, basically unchanged from December 11 and a decrease of 1,400 tons from December 15 [4]. 1.2 - 1.5 - These sections cover information on futures prices, price spreads, inventory data, and lead industry chain inventory, but specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [5][8][11][15] Chapter 2: Raw Material End 2.1 - 2.3 - These sections involve raw material supply, including global and domestic lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, imports of silver concentrates, and the supply of recycled lead raw materials such as lead - containing waste and waste batteries. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [20][24][32] Chapter 3: Smelting End 3.1 - 3.7 - These sections cover aspects such as the global refined lead balance, domestic refined lead imports and exports, primary lead smelting enterprise profits, primary and recycled lead supply, and domestic lead ingot supply. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [39][46][47] Chapter 4: Demand End 4.1 - 4.4 - These sections analyze the demand for lead, including lead - acid batteries, lead alloys and their plates, the automotive industry, and industries such as motorcycles, electricity, and communication. However, specific data and analysis details are not fully presented in the text [71][74][79][82]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the overall trend of oils and fats has been oscillating and weakening, lacking positive drivers. The final US biodiesel plan may be postponed until next year, and the inventory of Malaysian palm oil remains high with slow destocking, which is unfavorable for the rise of oils and fats. However, after a significant decline, the downside space is expected to be limited, so it is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [4][26]. - The inventory inflection point of domestic soybean oil has arrived, and it is currently in a state of continuous small - scale destocking, but the overall inventory is not in short supply. The price of soybean oil mainly fluctuates following the overall trend of oils and fats. With sufficient rapeseed oil supply, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to face pressure [4][26]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation International Market - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In October, the production increased to 476,000 tons, still lower than last year's same - period level and the 5 - year average. Exports increased but remained at a low level. Domestic consumption was stable and high, leading to inventory destocking to 233,000 tons, which is still at a low level compared to the historical same - period. The CPO tender price is oscillating weakly around $850, significantly lower than last year's same - period. In November, exports decreased by 13% to 1.75 million tons, mainly due to large declines in exports to Africa and the Asia - Pacific region [10]. - **Indian Market**: In November, the import of edible oils was 1.15 million tons, a 13% month - on - month decrease, at a relatively low level compared to the historical same - period. Among them, palm oil imports slightly increased to 630,000 tons, while soybean and sunflower oil imports decreased to 370,000 tons and 140,000 tons respectively, but soybean oil imports were still high. The port inventory of edible oils in November was at a high level of 1.02 million tons, with palm oil inventory increasing to 630,000 tons. It is expected that India's edible oil imports in the 25/26 fiscal year will continue to increase to over 17 million tons, with a possible decrease in soybean oil imports but still at a relatively high level, and palm oil imports will increase from 7.5 million tons to 9.3 million tons. There are rumors of cargo cancellation for Argentine and Chinese soybean oil [13]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of December 12, 2025 (week 50), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 652,700 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.53%. The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit inversion widened to around - 200. There were rumors of near - month purchases this week, and the basis was stable. In the short term, palm oil lacks obvious drivers, maintaining an oscillating and weakening trend. After a significant decline, the downside space is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing. Palm oil can consider betting on a rebound after stabilizing, but the rebound height may be limited, and the idea of shorting after the rebound is maintained [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of December 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.1374 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.20%. The inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the historical same - period, but the inventory inflection point has arrived, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, and the operating rate was 58.61%, an increase from the previous week. The market trading was light, and some oil mills stopped production due to a shortage of soybeans. In the later stage, as soybean arrivals gradually decrease, soybean crushing will decline from the high level, and soybean oil inventory may slightly destock, but the overall inventory is not in short supply. In the short term, domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend, mainly following the overall situation of oils and fats [21]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of December 12, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 336,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons, still at a high level compared to the historical same - period, but the inventory is continuously destocking. The FOB quotation of European rapeseed oil is stable around $1100, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1500. This week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%, with rapeseed inventory reaching the bottom. Currently, the clearance of Australian rapeseed by COFCO is relatively smooth. The market is worried about the commercial opening of Australian rapeseed. Coupled with the weakening of international rapeseed prices and good import crushing profits, funds are shorting the crushing margin, causing the futures price to continue to weaken. With sufficient rapeseed oil supply, the price of rapeseed oil is expected to face pressure. At the same time, the market is still focused on the clearance speed and crushing situation after the arrival of Australian rapeseed. The continuous destocking of rapeseed oil provides some support for its price [24]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral Strategy**: Palm oil can consider betting on a rebound after stabilizing, but the rebound height may be limited. The idea of shorting after the rebound is maintained. Soybean oil lacks drivers and may follow the overall trend of oils and fats. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes, and it is recommended to wait and see. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see. - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Malaysian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Malaysian palm oil are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [32][33]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on monthly production, exports, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [38]. - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Data on NOPA's US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [43]. - **Indian Oil Supply and Demand**: Data on Indian edible oil monthly consumption, monthly imports, palm oil monthly imports, sunflower oil monthly imports, soybean oil monthly imports, and edible oil port inventory are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [47]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Oil Import Profit**: Data on the import profit of European rapeseed oil over different years are presented in a chart [59]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats Supply and Demand**: Data on domestic soybean weekly crushing volume, soybean oil weekly consumption, soybean oil weekly trading volume, palm oil monthly import volume, palm oil monthly sales volume, palm oil weekly trading volume, domestic rapeseed weekly crushing volume, domestic rapeseed oil import volume, domestic rapeseed oil monthly consumption, and domestic oils and fats spot basis are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [63][65][67]. - **Domestic Oils and Fats Commercial Inventory**: Data on domestic port rapeseed oil inventory, total domestic oils and fats inventory, domestic soybean oil commercial inventory, domestic palm oil commercial inventory, and the inventory of the three major oils and fats are presented in charts, showing the trends over different years [75].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Stock Index Futures: Stock Indexes Expected to Rise Again [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market first declined and then rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing the 3900-point mark. The performance of technology stocks was poor, while traditional industries such as retail strengthened. It is necessary to closely observe whether there will be a style switch, which will have a significant impact on stock indexes [5]. - At the beginning of this week, the market is expected to strengthen under the combined effect of the upward inertia of A-shares and the rebound of U.S. stocks. Each index is facing pressure at the integer mark. If there is a style switch, the stock index is still expected to reach a new level [5]. - The delivery of the 2512 contract of stock index futures was completed smoothly. After the contract change, the discount of each contract may widen. Recently, the short - side main force has significantly increased positions, possibly due to increased hedging needs [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Weekly News Summary** - In November in China, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above designated size was 4.8%, lower than the expected 5%. From January to November, the year - on - year growth rate was 6.0%. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in November was 5.1%, the same as the previous month [4]. - From January to November in China, the year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.6%, greater than the expected 2.2%. Real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 15.9%, among which residential investment was 6.0432 trillion yuan, a decline of 15.0% [4]. - In November in China, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 4.3898 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods was 3.9444 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.5% [4]. - In November in the U.S., the year - on - year increase of CPI was 2.7%, significantly lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. The year - on - year increase of core CPI was 2.6%, also lower than the market expectation of 3% [4]. - In November in the U.S., the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, higher than the expected 4.4% [4]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The market last week first declined and then rebounded. The performance of technology stocks was poor, while traditional industries strengthened. It is necessary to observe whether there will be a style switch [5]. - At the beginning of this week, the market is expected to strengthen. Each index is facing pressure at the integer mark. If there is a style switch, the stock index is still expected to rise [5]. - The delivery of the 2512 contract of stock index futures was completed smoothly. After the contract change, the discount may widen. Recently, the short - side main force has increased positions [5]. - **Strategy Recommendations** - Unilateral: The market shows a volatile trend. Adopt the strategy of selling high and buying low [6]. - Arbitrage: Implement the spot - futures arbitrage strategy of going long on the 2603 contracts of IM and IC and shorting ETFs [6]. - Options: Adopt the double - buying strategy [6] Part II: Weekly Data Tracking - **A - share Index Performance** - Last week, the market showed a volatile trend. The CSI 300 declined by 0.28%, the SSE 50 rose by 0.32%, the CSI 500 declined by 0.003%, and the CSI 1000 declined by 0.56% [17]. - **A - share Trading Volume** - Last week, the trading volume in the A - share market shrank to 8.7 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 10.1% compared with the previous week. The trading volume proportion of major indexes was stable, with the trading volume proportion of the CSI 300 slightly decreasing [22]. - **A - share Stock Price Changes** - Last week, stocks gradually showed a general upward trend, with the proportion of rising stocks on Friday reaching 82%, a recent high. The proportion of limit - down stocks significantly decreased, and the proportion of limit - up stocks exceeded 1% continuously from Wednesday. The proportion of limit - down stocks on Thursday and Friday was only 0.1% [23]. - **A - share Margin Trading** - Last week, the margin balance in the A - share market slightly declined, remaining at the level of 2.48 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.6% of the A - share floating market value. Since December 16, there has been continuous net margin repayment, but the amount is small. The proportion of margin trading in the A - share trading volume remains above 10% [33]. - **A - share Industry Performance** - Different industries showed different performance in terms of weekly gains and losses, with the highest weekly increase reaching 6.7% and the lowest reaching - 4.0% [36]. - **A - share Industry Capital Flow** - The net weekly capital inflow and net weekly margin trading inflow of different industries varied [40]. - **Stock Index Futures Basis Changes** - The basis of different stock index futures contracts showed different trends [46]. - **Stock Index Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes** - The trading volume and open interest of different stock index futures contracts changed over time [49]. - **Comparison of Stock Index Futures and Spot Trading Volume** - The trading volume of different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indexes showed different relationships [52]. - **Stock Index Futures Main Open Interest** - The net short - position ratios of the top five and top ten holders of different stock index futures contracts were different [54]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily urea report dated December 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Review - Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1697 (-7/-0.41%) [3] - Urea spot market saw factory prices continue to rise, but trading volume weakened. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1680 - 1690 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1700 - 1710 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1590 - 1610 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1650 - 1660 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1540 - 1590 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Important Information - On December 19, the daily urea production in the industry was 18.73 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 0.9 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 77.46%, a decrease of 1.43% compared to 78.89% in the same period last year [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream factory price continued to rise, market sentiment cooled, and new orders were scarce. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate increased, but raw material and finished - product inventories were high, and orders were few. It is expected that the factory price will remain firm [5] - In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the factory price followed the decline, and traders stocked up. It is expected that the factory price will remain firm [5] - Around the delivery area, the factory price was firm, the market atmosphere was positive, demand in Northeast China increased, and new orders were smoothly traded. It is expected that the factory price will increase [5] - Domestic gas - based plants started maintenance, and the daily output dropped to around 19.4 tons but remained at a high level. India tendered again for 150 tons in total for the east and west coasts with a shipping date in early February. The impact was limited due to no new quotas in China [5] - The compound fertilizer operating rate in the Central Plains and Northeast regions increased seasonally, but in Henan, it stopped due to environmental protection until the end of the month, and overall demand slowed down. The progress of reserve by storage enterprises reached over 70%, and future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5] - In the medium - term, affected by environmental protection, the compound fertilizer operating rate in Henan, Hebei, and Anhui decreased significantly, and the urea supply - demand fundamentals remained relatively loose. After the price increase in some regions, downstream acceptance decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of phosphate fertilizer prices on the urea market sentiment [5] Group 5: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short 05 [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "High - price Resistance, Urea Weakly Pulls Back" and is from the Chemical Research Group of Galaxy Futures Research Institute, written by Zhang Mengchao in December 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view was that the Indian tender stimulated the rebound of the ex - factory price, while this week's view is that downstream resistance to high prices leads to a weak pull - back of urea. The market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are weakly stable with weak transactions. In the short term, urea remains firm, but in the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the price increase is expected to slow down. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 4: Core Data Changes Supply - In the 50th week of 2025 (20251211 - 1217), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 89.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 52.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.11%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 71.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% [4] Demand - In the 51st week of 2025 (20251212 - 1218), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The urea demand of Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons or 15.96%. The arrival volume of urea in Northeast China was 8.2 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from last week. As of December 17, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days or 10.09% from the previous period [4] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons or 4.42% from last week. As of December 18, 2025 (the 51st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons or 12.20% [4] Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weak, and the decline of Yulin pulverized coal widened. The spot price of urea rebounded, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production broke even, the profit of coal - water slurry production was 100 yuan/ton, and the production profit of entrained - flow bed was 330 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 30 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Other Data in the Report - The report also includes data tracking on mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices, basis, regional spreads, warehouse receipts and spreads, futures spreads between urea and methanol, raw coal prices, production profit, urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spreads, urea operating rate, urea production, urea pre - sales, urea inventory, other inventory supply and demand, ratio of urea to other nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizer, melamine, urea export, and furniture, etc., but the specific data content is not detailed in the provided text [7][14][21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The开工率 of coal mines is stable, with the开工率 in Erdos at 73% and in Yulin at 50% as of December 18. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to a continuous drop in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the methanol开工率 is stable at a high level, with a continuous loose domestic supply [4]. - The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian plants have shut down due to gas restrictions and no tenders have been issued. The开工率 of non - Iranian plants has increased, and the overseas开工率 has slightly increased from a low level. The European and American markets have declined slightly, and the domestic - overseas price difference has narrowed. The Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 590,000 tons in December, and some non - Iranian supplies have been delayed to January. The import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The开工率 of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably while others are under - loaded or shut down. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing due to a slight reduction in imported arrivals caused by shipping closures, and the basis is relatively stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4]. - Overall, the international plant开工率 has declined, and the gas restriction in Iran has expanded, with only one plant remaining in operation. The port spot liquidity is sufficient, but the overall trading is light. The US dollar price is stable, and the import parity is stable. The coal price has fallen weakly, and the domestic supply is loose. The inland MTO开工率 is stable, and the inland price is relatively strong recently. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut in December, the domestic commodities have fluctuated widely, but the impact on methanol futures has weakened. Methanol is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - Unilateral: Gradually build long positions for the 05 contract when the price is below 2100. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage. - Over - the - counter: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic** - As of December 18, the overall domestic methanol plant开工率 was 77.63%, up 0.99 percentage points from last week and 3.48 percentage points from the same period last year. The开工率 in the northwest region was 89.01%, up 1.48 percentage points from last week and 2.06 percentage points from the same period last year. The average开工率 of non - integrated methanol plants was 70.22%, up 1.35 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International** - In the period from December 6 to December 12, 2025, the international (ex - China) methanol production was 914,499 tons, a decrease of 30,956 tons from last week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 62.69%, a decrease of 2.12% from last week. Some plants in Iran, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, South America and North America had different operating conditions [5]. - **Supply - Import** - From December 11 to December 17, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol was 344,000 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO** - As of December 18, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 70.10%, a decrease of 7.44 percentage points from last week. The national olefin plant开工率 was 89.49%, and the weekly average开工率 of the MTO industry decreased [5]. - **Demand - Traditional** - The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether was 7.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 21.05%. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid was 76.51%. The formaldehyde开工率 was 42.58% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales** - The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 59,700 tons, an increase of 16,900 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month increase of 39.49% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises** - The production enterprise inventory was 391,100 tons, an increase of 38,300 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 220,400 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.25% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports** - As of December 17, 2025, the total port inventory was 1.2188 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 31,000 tons, while that in South China increased by 15,400 tons [5]. - **Valuation** - In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has been stable. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and that in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has been stable [5]. - **Spot Prices** - The price in Taicang is 2140 (+50), and the price in the north line is 1900 (-50) [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The anti - involution expectation has heated up again, boosting the market sentiment. The central government has emphasized the need to rectify "involution - style" competition, which has led to an improvement in the sentiment of related commodity markets and a short - term rebound in ferroalloy futures prices. However, due to the uncertainty of the implementation time of the expectation and the short - term difficulty in changing the current weak supply - demand pattern, it is advisable to wait for low - price opportunities rather than chasing high prices [1][5]. - The fundamentals of the ferroalloy market show a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with obvious cost - side support. The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has decreased, and the demand from the steel industry is also under pressure. The cost of ferroalloy electricity has stabilized after an increase, and the US dollar quotes of overseas manganese ore mines have slightly increased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rates and production of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have both declined. With the overall increase in power prices in production areas, manufacturers' losses have intensified, and the supply is expected to continue to decline [5]. - **Demand**: The production and apparent demand of five major steel products have continued to decline, and pig iron production has also decreased. Based on the blast furnace maintenance plan, the downward trend of pig iron production is expected to last until the end of December, putting pressure on raw material demand [5]. - **Cost**: After the increase in ferroalloy electricity prices in production areas, they have been stable recently. The US dollar quotes of overseas manganese ore mines in January have all increased slightly [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: The anti - involution expectation has boosted market sentiment, leading to a short - term rebound in ferroalloy futures prices. However, due to the uncertainty of the implementation time of the expectation and the short - term difficulty in changing the weak supply - demand pattern, it is advisable to wait for low - price opportunities rather than chasing high prices [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The anti - involution expectation boosts market sentiment, leading to a short - term rebound, but the current weak supply - demand pattern limits the upside potential. One should not be overly optimistic about the price increase [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - **Options**: Sell out - of - the - money straddle combinations at high prices [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron production of 247 sample steel mills was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons. The weekly demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) was 18,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. The weekly demand for silicomanganese in five major steel types (70%) was 112,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 400 tons [11]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 30.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14%. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon was 99,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,500 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 35.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.24%. The weekly supply of silicomanganese (99%) was 188,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons [12]. - **Inventory**: In the week of December 19, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,700 tons. The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national capacity) was 384,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,500 tons [13]. 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis The document presents the market prices of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, as well as the basis of the main contracts of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese and ferrosilicon, from 2021 to 2025 [18]. 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises The document shows the weekly production and operating rates of Chinese silicomanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [24]. 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation The document presents the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel production, profit rate, and social steel inventory of 247 steel mills from 2021 to 2025 [30]. 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of silicomanganese in different regions on December 18, 2025, are presented. All regions are in a loss - making state [32]. - The document also shows the cost and profit of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia, and the production costs and profits in different regions [33][34][35][36]. 3.3.6 Manganese Ore Price The document presents the prices of South African Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, the CIF quotes of South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps for shipment, and the prices of manganese ore at Tianjin Port and the CIF quotes for forward shipments from 2021 to 2025 [40]. 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon in different regions on December 18, 2025, are presented. All regions are in a loss - making state [42]. - The document also shows the cost and profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, and the production costs and profits in different regions [43][44][45][46]. 3.3.8 Cost of Carbon and Electricity The document presents the prices of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin power coal lumps, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 to 2025 [50][51][52]. 3.3.9 Steel Tendering Prices of Double - Silicon by Hebei Representative Steel Mills The document presents the steel tendering prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese by Hebei representative steel mills from 2020 to 2025 [55][56][57][58][59]. 3.3.10 Monthly Production of Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon The document presents the cumulative and monthly production of silicomanganese and ferrosilicon in China from 2021 to 2025, as well as the year - on - year growth rates [62][63][64][65][66][67]. 3.3.11 Import and Export of Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon The document presents the monthly net imports of manganese ore and the monthly net exports of ferrosilicon in China from 2013 to 2025, as well as the year - on - year growth rates [70]. 3.3.12 Demand for Magnesium Metal The document presents the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative production of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2013 to 2025 [72]. 3.3.13 Ferrosilicon Inventory of Alloy Plants and Steel Mills The document presents the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy plants, the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy plants in different regions, the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills, and the available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills in different regions from 2021 to 2025 [76][77][78][79][80][81]. 3.3.14 Manganese Ore Inventory of Alloy Plants, Steel Mills, and Ports The document presents the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills, the available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills in different regions, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 to 2025 [84].

Report Information - Report Title: "Double Coking Coal and Coke: Bottom Rebound in the Futures Market, Pay Attention to Changes in Trading Logic" [1] - Researcher: Guo Chao [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to the rising "anti - involution" sentiment in the market, commodities with large previous declines have rebounded, and coking coal has a relatively obvious rebound. Although the auction failure rate of Shanxi coking coal has decreased and some coal types have shown signs of stabilization and rebound, it has not yet formed a general increase, and the downstream procurement intensity still needs to be observed. Considering the winter storage demand of coking and steel enterprises and the possible production reduction and maintenance of some coal mines at the end of the year, the supply - demand situation of coking coal may improve slightly in the later stage. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback. [5] - For coking coal, the decline in domestic prices has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen price increases. However, the overall supply is relatively loose due to high imports of Mongolian coal and insufficient domestic production reduction. It is expected that the procurement enthusiasm will improve next week, and the price is expected to stabilize and rebound slightly in the next 1 - 2 weeks. [7] - For coke, the second - round price cut has been implemented, and the third - round is expected to be implemented soon, with a high probability of a fourth - round cut later. The production of coke has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The iron - making water production is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down. [8] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Pay attention to changes in trading logic. The volatility is still large. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long with a light position after a pullback [5] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [5] - **Options**: Wait and see [5] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Coking Coal Analysis** - **Spot Price**: The auction failure rate of coking coal in the production area has decreased, the decline has slowed down, and some coal mines have seen price increases, but there is no general increase. The Shanxi coal warehouse receipt is 1230 yuan/ton, the Mongolian 5 warehouse receipt is 1115 yuan/ton, and the Australian coal (port spot) warehouse receipt is 1175 yuan/ton. [7] - **Domestic Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has rebounded slightly. It is expected that the coking coal production will decline seasonally in late December, but the reduction in domestic production will be supplemented by imported coal, and the overall supply is relatively loose. [7] - **Imported Mongolian Coal**: The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. It is expected that the average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port will remain high in December. [7] - **Demand**: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and attention should be paid to the winter storage and replenishment efforts of steel mills. [7] - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory has increased. The inventory of coal mines has risen, and the inventory at ports and terminals has increased significantly. Some coking and steel enterprises have slightly increased their procurement enthusiasm, but large - scale winter storage has not yet started. [7] - **Coke Analysis** - **Spot Price**: The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and some steel mills have proposed a third - round price cut. It is expected that the third - round price cut will be implemented soon, and there is a high probability of a fourth - round price cut later. [8] - **Supply**: The coke production has declined, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly next week. The downstream steel mills' procurement enthusiasm is average, and the coke enterprises have certain pressure in shipping. [8] - **Demand**: The iron - making water production has continued to decline. It is in a seasonal downward trend, and the decline is expected to slow down in the next 1 - 2 weeks. Attention should be paid to the raw material replenishment actions of steel mills. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory has decreased. The coke enterprises' shipping situation is poor, and the steel mills basically purchase on demand, with no obvious signs of winter storage. [8] - **Profit**: According to Steel Union data, the average national profit per ton of coke is 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions. [8] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Coking Coal Production and Inventory** - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%. The average daily production of raw coal is 192.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 478.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.5 tons. The average daily production of clean coal is 75.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 272.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17.5 tons. [12] - **Imported Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance** - The average daily customs clearance vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port have increased, and the inventory at the port has risen. [7] - **Iron - Making Water Production** - The average daily iron - making water production of 247 steel mills is 226.55 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.65 tons. The decline is mainly due to the continuous impact of blast furnace maintenance last week and the production reduction of some steel mills in Hebei due to environmental protection restrictions. [17] - **Price and Basis** - The report provides price trends and basis data for domestic coking coal, imported coking coal, coke, etc., including price indices, different coal types' prices, and basis differences between different contracts and regions. [20][28][30] - **Inter - month Spread** - The report provides inter - month spread data for coking coal and coke, including spreads between different contracts such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, and 09 - 01. [60][63]