Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives short - term investment outlooks for individual commodities: - **Short - term bullish**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Cotton, red dates, live pigs [1] Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: In a large - range market due to the intersection of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. After the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report, the final US soybean production and ending stocks decreased month - on - month. However, considering the price of Argentine soybean meal and the limited reduction in US soybean production, be cautious when chasing long positions [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Supported by factors such as the expected decline in rapeseed imports from August to October, 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed. But the high inventory and policy implementation may affect the market sentiment [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are favorable for market consumption expectations. Although there was profit - taking recently, the overall trend is still bullish on dips [1]. - **Cotton**: The expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is on the market. The rapid de - stocking and the lack of import quotas support the price. With the "Golden September and Silver October" approaching, the demand is expected to improve, but the remaining upside space may be limited [1]. - **Red Dates**: There is still a large divergence in the market regarding the reduction in production. The expected total production of Xinjiang southern grey dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons. The short - term speculation around the purchase price before November is beneficial for the bullish trend [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the far - month contracts. The situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" is obvious, and it is recommended to establish long positions in far - month contracts on dips [1]. Summary by Commodity Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 3157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3118.29 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The soybean crushing profit decreased, and the basis of some contracts increased [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 893.8 million tons, up 70.10 million tons week - on - week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.56 million tons, up 8.38% week - on - week; the bean粕 inventory was 100.35 million tons, down 3.66% week - on - week [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 2686 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2663.16 yuan/ton, down 2.28%. The rapeseed spot crushing profit decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.88 million tons, up 2.28 million tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 3.2 million tons, up 0.5 million tons week - on - week [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: Futures price was 9368 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous day; the national average price was 9408 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. The import cost decreased slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 59.98 million tons, up 3.02% week - on - week and 1.12% year - on - year [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures prices of some contracts increased slightly, while the ICE cotton main contract decreased. The domestic spot price increased slightly [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the US cotton condition weakened slightly, while India's sowing area increased. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to increase, and the commercial inventory decreased, providing support for the price. The downstream demand is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October" [10][11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased 0.74% to 11460 yuan/ton. The spot prices in most regions remained stable [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new - season jujubes are in the fruit - setting period. The market focuses on the weather. The estimated new - season production is expected to decrease, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [14]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased 1.52% to 13900 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price remained stable at 14340 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the planned August出栏 volume increased, and the supply pressure is high. In the long term, the reduction in capacity by leading enterprises may push up the price. The current demand is in the off - season [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the US PPI exceeding expectations has dampened interest - rate cut expectations, causing short - term declines in precious metals and base metals. However, in the long run, factors such as global monetary policy easing, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand dynamics support the upward trend of some metals. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise in the long term, while zinc is expected to decline due to increasing supply and decreasing demand [1][3]. - For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, although there are some short - term negative factors, long - term fundamentals still support a bullish view. For lithium carbonate, short - term factors such as fundamentals, funds, and sentiment support its rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Inflation exceeding expectations again dampened interest - rate cut expectations, and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue, gold and silver prices declined [2]. - **Basic Logic**: The US July PPI was far above expectations, with the year - on - year increase in July rising from 2.3% to 3.3%, the highest since February. The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770 in the short term, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range for silver is 9150 - 9400, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper prices declined under pressure, breaking through the 79,000 - yuan mark [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. Currently in the consumption off - season, demand will gradually pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the copper market is in a tight balance throughout the year [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening interest - rate cut expectations. With overseas inventory accumulation in the off - season and relatively tight domestic social inventories, copper prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions at high prices. In the long term, copper prices are expected to rise [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc prices were in a narrow - range consolidation, with long and short forces in a stalemate [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is increasing. In the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. Domestic inventories are increasing, while overseas LME zinc inventories are decreasing, with a risk of soft squeeze [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for more macro - level guidance. In the long term, short - selling opportunities can be considered when prices are high [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices faced pressure in rebounding, and alumina prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, inventories are rising, and the downstream industry is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with a loose supply - demand situation in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to inventory accumulation during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices declined under pressure, and stainless steel prices were also under pressure [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing slightly. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and inventory pressure may reappear [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short - selling opportunities during rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, and finally closed slightly higher [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, inventory has only increased slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. Supply - side rumors of production halts may lead to a short - term supply - demand mismatch [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the continued speculation of supply - side production halts, long positions can be held in the range of 84,000 - 86,500 [22].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【475-495】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 高基差估值偏低，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价偏弱， 但短期下方支撑上升；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可， PDH 开工率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口 库存上升。策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头盘整 成本端油价下跌，现货持稳，基差继续走强。基本面供需双强，近期多数 装置陆续重启，LL 进口毛利提升，预计本周产量继续增加。但农膜旺季即 将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对价格低估值，远月合 约具有抗跌性。策略：关注旺季启动节奏及美俄会谈结果，回调试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头盘整 成本支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish with a long - term strategic allocation recommendation, suggested to buy on dips [1] - Silver: Bullish, recommended to buy on rebounds, both short - term trial and long - term investment are advised [1] - Copper: Bullish in the long - term, recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium - to - long - term, waiting for opportunities to short on rallies [1] - Lead: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price rebound is under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, recommended to take long positions after corrections [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring in the long run, showing a long - term bullish trend. The short - term price may be supported around 770, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver also has an upward trend, with a trading range of 9150 - 9400 in the short - term, and long - term investment is recommended [1][3][4] - Copper is in a high - level consolidation phase. Although there is short - term inventory accumulation overseas and it is the consumption off - season, the domestic social inventory is relatively tight. Long - term demand is expected to pick up, and it is recommended to hold long positions and take partial profits [1][7][8] - Zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited [1][10][11] - Aluminum price rebounds under pressure due to insufficient terminal orders. It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress [1][14][15] - Nickel price rebounds and then falls. With the slowdown of downstream production cuts, it is recommended to short on rebounds, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate demand is about to enter the peak season. With supply - side speculation, there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch, and long positions should be held [1][22][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the impact of tariffs fades and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and impending US interest rate cuts, gold prices consolidate after a decline, and silver rebounds after stopping the decline [2] Basic Logic - Japan may raise interest rates in October. The US is likely to cut interest rates in September. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] Strategy Recommendation - Gold may be supported around 770 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization. The short - term trading range of silver is 9150 - 9400, and short - term trial orders can be made, while long - term investment is supported by fundamentals and the market trend [4] Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper prices fall under pressure and test the support at 79,000 [7] Industry Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight. Although refined copper production is at a high level, it may decline marginally. It is currently the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas copper inventories accumulate slightly, while domestic social inventories are relatively tight, and the supply - demand balance is tight throughout the year [7] Strategy Recommendation - After the macro - positive factors are realized, copper prices consolidate at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and take partial profits. Enterprises can actively arrange short - hedging positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish, with the Shanghai copper price focusing on the range of [78000, 80000] and the LME copper price on [9650, 9950] dollars per ton [8] Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc prices fall under pressure and show a weak and volatile trend [10] Industry Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is ample, and refined zinc production is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic consumption off - season, demand is expected to decline. Domestic inventories accumulate, while overseas LME zinc warrants are in short supply, with a risk of a soft squeeze [10] Strategy Recommendation - With tight LME zinc warrants, zinc shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets. In the short - term, inventory accumulates during the off - season, and in the medium - to - long - term, supply increases while demand decreases. Opportunities to short on rallies should be awaited. The Shanghai zinc price focuses on the range of [22200, 22800], and the LME zinc price on [2700, 2900] dollars per ton [11] Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices rebound under pressure, and alumina prices first rebound and then fall [13] Industry Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - sentiment is positive, but downstream demand is weak, and inventories are rising. For alumina, overseas bauxite shipments are smooth, and domestic production capacity is increasing, with supply - demand remaining loose in the short - term [14] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds in the short - term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory accumulation progress during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15] Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices rebound and then fall, and stainless steel prices are under pressure [17] Industry Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing. Stainless steel production cuts are weakening, and although short - term inventories decline, there is still long - term pressure [18] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] [19] Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opens lower, strongly rallies, and then falls in the afternoon following market sentiment [21] Industry Logic - Although domestic weekly production reaches a new high, inventory increases slightly, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about production stoppages on the supply side, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch [22] Strategy Recommendation - With the expectation of supply - side speculation still existing, long positions should be held in the range of [84200 - 88000] [23]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | | 较 7 | 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日凌晨美农公 | | 豆粕 | 布 8 短线偏多 | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量 | | ★★ | | 及期末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 116 万吨，叠加中国发布对加籽反倾销调查初 | | | | 步政策，菜粕封停。豆粕价格昨日大幅上涨。但考虑阿根廷豆粕价格以及美豆产量 | | | | 环比调减幅度有限。豆粕追多操作需注意仓位管理和风控，警惕菜粕滞涨后的调整 | | | | 风险。主力【3120，3280】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Short-term long participation [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows obvious off-season characteristics and is expected to fluctuate within a range. For rebar, the profit of blast furnaces is still good, and the profit of electric furnaces has improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, and hot metal production is at a high level. However, the demand side is still weak, and the trading volume of construction steel is hovering at a low level. The incomplete implementation of production restriction policies during the military parade supports the expectation of supply contraction, and raw material prices also bring disturbances. For hot-rolled coil, the production and apparent demand have decreased month-on-month, inventory has slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The export profit has significantly declined, which may affect future exports [1][3][4]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals show a decline in hot metal production. Both port and steel mill inventories have increased. The restocking of steel mills with low inventories has led to a firming of prices in the short term. Under the influence of fundamentals, iron ore prices are strong [1][7][8]. - **Coke**: Coke prices have had six rounds of increases, and the profit of coke enterprises has continued to improve. Some regions have announced production restriction policies during the military parade, which may lead to a certain contraction in supply. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable. In the medium term, raw material prices may still be supported by production restriction and reduction news and maintain a strong trend. In the short term, the current price is relatively high, and the exchange has introduced trading restrictions on coking coal, so there may be a short-term correction [1][10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestically, coking coal production has remained flat month-on-month, and the absolute level is lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month-on-month, and the transfer speed to downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of hot metal production is still high, and raw material demand is relatively stable. Recent news of coal mine production restrictions still supports the market, and the medium-term trend may remain strong. However, the exchange has restricted the trading limit of the 01 contract and increased the intraday speculative handling fee, which may lead to a certain decline in market sentiment. There is a risk of short-term market fluctuations [1][13][14]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some production areas due to profit restoration. A new round of demand has been concentratedly released, and the inquiry price for ferromanganese tender by a representative steel mill in August is 6,000 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals have weakened, factory inventories have continued to increase significantly, and delivery inventories are at a high level compared to the same period. The tender price of a representative steel mill for ferrosilicon in August is 6,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 430 yuan/ton compared to the previous round [1][16][17]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - **Rebar**: Currently in a neutral position, short-term market conditions are prone to fluctuations. The expected price range is [3,190, 3,250] [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Currently in a neutral position, short-term market conditions may fluctuate. The expected price range is [3,410, 3,470] [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - The price is expected to be strong, and short-term long participation is recommended. The expected price range is [780, 815] [1][7][8]. Coke - Cautiously bullish. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see due to potential price corrections. The expected price range is [1,710, 1,760] [1][10][11]. Coking Coal - Cautiously bullish. In the short term, pay attention to the risk of market fluctuations and wait and see. The expected price range is [1,200, 1,260] [1][13][14]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: Cautiously bullish. Continue to pay attention to the performance of coking coal and coke. The expected price range is [5,954, 6,194] [1][16][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish. In the short term, the price is supported by market sentiment, but in the medium term, the price may be under pressure. The expected price range is [5,675, 5,965] [1][16][17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - For steel products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon, the general sentiment is cautiously bullish, with iron ore recommended for short-term long positions [1]. Core Views - **Rebar**: Supply-side policies continue to disrupt the market, and it may strengthen in the short term due to production cuts during the military parade by Tangshan independent rolling enterprises. The current market still shows off-season characteristics [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but export profits have declined significantly. Macro expectations provide support, and production restrictions during the military parade in Tangshan may stimulate short-term strength [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Driven by steel mills' restocking, the price is oscillating strongly. The fundamentals dominate, and the price is bullish [1][7][8]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have increased five times, and corporate profits have marginally improved. Supply and demand are generally balanced, and recent coal production restriction news has boosted market sentiment, leading to short-term high-level fluctuations [1][10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production has decreased significantly, and inventory has also declined. Although iron water production has decreased, the absolute level remains high, and raw material demand is stable. Production restriction news has boosted market expectations, resulting in short-term high-level fluctuations [1][13][14]. - **Ferromanganese**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased in some regions. The tender inquiry price of a landmark steel mill in August has increased, and port ore prices are firm, providing short-term support for alloy prices [1][16][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals are weakening, with a significant increase in factory inventory and high delivery inventory. New steel tenders have started, and most mills' tender volume and price have increased. In the short term, the price is driven by market sentiment, but in the medium term, it may face pressure as the fundamentals return to a loose state [1][16][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. The basis, spreads, and other indicators also show corresponding changes [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Rebar shows off-season characteristics, with iron water production slightly decreasing, and production and apparent demand increasing. Hot-rolled coil production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has slightly increased, with export profits declining [4]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices have increased, and the basis, spreads, and other indicators have changed. Spot prices and indexes have also adjusted [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Iron water production has decreased, while port and steel mill inventories have increased. Steel mills' restocking has led to a firm price in the short term [8]. Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices have risen, and the basis has decreased. Spot prices are relatively stable, and production and inventory data show small changes [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices have increased five times, and corporate profits have marginally improved. Supply and demand are generally balanced, and production restriction news has boosted market sentiment [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices have increased, and the basis has decreased. Spot prices are stable, and production and inventory data have changed slightly [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Domestic production has decreased significantly, and inventory has declined. Iron water production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is stable. Production restriction news has boosted market expectations [14]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. Spot prices are relatively stable, and the basis, spreads, and other indicators have changed [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply-demand contradiction of ferromanganese is not prominent, and the operating rate has increased. The tender price of a landmark steel mill has increased. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are weakening, with increased inventory and new steel tenders starting [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, PX, PTA, MEG [1][33][37][41] - **Cautiously Bullish**: LPG, Urea [1][48] - **Bearish Rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Propylene [1] - **Bearish**: Methanol, Asphalt [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure is rising, and the oil price center is moving down. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and high positions suggest potential for a rebound. Consider a light - long position [1][11]. - **L**: Demand is improving marginally. Consider buying on dips [1][16]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the start of the peak season. Consider buying on dips [1][23]. - **PVC**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [1][30]. - **PX**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Hold short positions cautiously and buy put options [1][35]. - **PTA**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted [1][39]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, and sell call options [2][43]. - **Methanol**: Supply - demand is expected to be loose, and port inventory is accumulating. Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][46]. - **Urea**: Cost support exists, and exports are relatively good. Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract [2][50]. - **Asphalt**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish. Try a light - short position [2]. - **Propylene**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season. Buy on dips [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices weakened, with WTI down 1.24%, Brent down 0.77%, and SC up 0.02% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is decreasing, and OPEC+ production increase is pressuring prices. There is still room for price compression [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC's August production increased, and EIA data shows changes in US inventories [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 12, the PG main contract closed at 3813 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [9]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, but the basis is high, and positions are rising. There is potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - long position and focus on the range of [3750 - 3850] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2509 contract closed at 7329 yuan/ton [15]. - **Industry News**: Downstream demand is increasing, and prices are expected to rise slightly [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving marginally, and supply pressure is increasing marginally. Consider buying on dips [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2509 contract closed at 7091 yuan/ton [21]. - **Industry News**: International oil prices are rising, but demand is insufficient. Prices may fluctuate [22]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is shifting, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. Consider buying on dips [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [7050 - 7200] [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 5047 yuan/ton [28]. - **Industry News**: Production is normal, but fundamentals are weak. Prices may be stable [29]. - **Basic Logic**: Follow the cost - based range rebound in the short term and wait to go short after the rebound [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait to go short after the rebound and focus on the range of [4900 - 5150] [30]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6726 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still high. Cautiously bearish [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and focus on the range of [6690 - 6780] [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, PTA in East China was 4670 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4684 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Cautiously bearish [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, buy put options, and look for low - long opportunities after crude oil's negative factors are exhausted. Focus on the range of [4670 - 4720] [40]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the ethylene glycol spot in East China was 4456 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4384 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and cost support is weakening. Cautiously bearish [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions, look for short opportunities, sell call options, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4440] [44]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the methanol spot in East China was 2393 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2383 yuan/ton [45]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening. Bearish [46]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions on rallies for the 09 contract, sell call options, look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract, and take partial profit on the MA9 - 1 spread. Focus on the range of [2360 - 2395] [47]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot in Shandong was 1760 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1728 yuan/ton [49]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is increasing, but exports are relatively good. Cost support exists. Cautiously bullish [50]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions for the 09 contract and look for low - long opportunities for the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [1720 - 1750] [51]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost pressure exists, and fundamentals are slightly bearish [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try a light - short position and focus on the range of [3450 - 3550] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Spot price is rising slightly, and demand is entering the peak season [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips and focus on the range of [6400 - 6600] [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★ [1] - Silver: ★★ [1] - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★ [1] - Lead: ★ [1] - Tin: ★ [1] - Aluminum: ★ [1] - Nickel: ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Long - term gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring, presenting a long - term bullish trend. Short - term gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [1][3][4]. - Copper is expected to strengthen due to lower - than - expected US inflation. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term bullish outlook. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [1][8]. - Zinc shows a short - term upward trend with the center of gravity rising as Shanghai zinc follows the external market. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [1][11]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [1][15]. - Nickel prices are expected to have short - term rebounds. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range is [121000 - 123500] [1][19]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to the approaching peak demand season. It is recommended to hold long positions, with a price range of [81000 - 86000] [1][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Review - After the delay of Sino - US tariffs by 90 days and with the ongoing Russia - Ukraine issue and US data supporting significant interest rate cuts, gold and silver prices declined and then consolidated [2]. Basic Logic - US tariff revenue reached a new high, but the government budget deficit still expanded. Inflation data led to an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the September interest rate cut expectation rising to 95% and the annual interest rate cut expectation rising to 2.48 times. The US government pressured for interest rate cuts. In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold may find support around 770 in the short - term, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. Silver's trading range is 9100 - 9300, and long positions can be entered after the price stops falling. Long - term buying is supported by fundamentals and market trends [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper gapped down overnight and faced resistance during the rebound [7]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and although the subsequent refined copper production may decrease marginally, the current refined copper production is at a high level. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. LME copper inventory build - up has slowed, and domestic social copper inventory is tight [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, it is recommended to hold long positions. The long - term outlook for copper is bullish. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 81000], and for London copper is [9700, 10000] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc Market Review - London zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and Shanghai zinc followed the upward trend [10]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase. The demand side is affected by factors such as Vietnam's tariff increase on galvanized steel and the domestic off - season, leading to a decline in the expected start - up rate of galvanized enterprises. Domestic zinc inventory is building up, while overseas London zinc warehouse receipts are being depleted, posing a risk of a soft squeeze [10]. Strategy Recommendation - With the 90 - day extension of Sino - US tariffs, lower - than - expected US inflation, and an increased probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, Shanghai zinc will follow the external market in the short - term, with the center of gravity rising. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and short - selling opportunities should be awaited when the price is high. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22200, 23000], and for London zinc is [2800, 2900] dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices had a short - term rebound, and alumina had a rebound and then a decline [13]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - environment is positive. The cost has decreased, inventory is rising, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, overseas bauxite supply is stable, but there are some disturbances in domestic bauxite. Alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory is accumulating. In the short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to remain loose [14]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the short - term rebound of Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory build - up during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices had a short - term rebound, and stainless steel also showed a rebound [17]. Industrial Logic - Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production has increased. Stainless steel production cuts have led to some inventory reduction, but overall, there is still an oversupply pressure during the off - season [18]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities during the rebound of nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [121000 - 123500] [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 opened high and then fell, dropping more than 6000 points from the high [21]. Industrial Logic - Although domestic weekly production has reached a new high, the total inventory has only increased by less than 700 tons, indicating that terminal demand is about to enter the peak season. There is speculation about supply disruptions, and there may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch. From a capital perspective, the 09 contract has a high open interest but a low warehouse receipt volume [22]. Strategy Recommendation - Due to the continued speculation about supply disruptions, it is recommended to hold long positions in the range of [81000 - 86000] [23].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 | | 豆粕 | 警惕数据调整 | 较 7 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。在基本面偏弱及 | | | | 中美贸易关税成本支撑的多空因素交织作用下，大区间行情对待。昨日受中国公布 | | ★ | 风险 | 对加籽反倾销调查结果提振，跟随菜粕价格上涨。关注本周三凌晨 8 月 USDA 报告 | | | | 美豆单产情况，市场预计环比趋向调增风险，追多谨慎对待。主力【3030，3090】 | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜 | | | | 粕环比累库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水平。8 月至 10 月菜籽进口同比 | | 菜粕 | | 大幅偏低，叠加 100%加菜粕进口关税，以及旧作加籽的强势。对菜粕价格构成较 | | ★★ | 短线偏多 | 强支持。现货市场方面，豆粕对菜粕消费替代较大。昨日中国发布对加籽反倾销调 | | | | 查结果，叠加报告公 ...