Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - **Basic Logic**: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - **Industrial Logic**: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of soybean meal is downward. The current domestic supply is sufficient, and factors such as Argentina's zero - tariff export policy and the U.S. soybean harvest are negative for prices. However, the continuous downward space is limited due to Sino - U.S. trade tariff issues [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal is also expected to decline in the short term. Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and the progress of Sino - Canadian trade needs to be monitored [1][5]. - Palm oil is expected to continue its short - term adjustment. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance [1][7]. - Soybean oil will continue to adjust in the short term. The frequent changes in U.S. biodiesel policy and the approaching U.S. soybean harvest may put pressure on it. It has recently followed the adjustment of palm oil [1]. - Rapeseed oil will maintain a high - level shock. The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic de - stocking cycle support its price, but the development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward movement [1]. - Cotton is recommended to be short - allocated in the short term. The increasing supply from the U.S. and other Northern Hemisphere countries, weak export demand, and the start of domestic new cotton harvesting with no obvious price - support behavior contribute to the bearish outlook [1][11]. - For jujubes, it is advisable to be cautious and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. Although the market's concerns about quality are gradually alleviated, there is still pressure after the new fruit is launched, and there may be large price fluctuations before November [1][15]. - For live pigs, the short - term 11 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy should be maintained. The spot market is under pressure from both supply and feed price adjustments [1][18]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.983 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 703,000 tons; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 6.9466 million tons, a decrease of 385,400 tons or 5.26% from the previous week. The soybean meal inventory was 1.25 million tons, an increase of 85,600 tons or 7.35% from the previous week [3]. - The futures price of the main contract closed at 2,930 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.07% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,988 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan or 0.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 46,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 17,500 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - The futures price of the main contract was 2,395 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan or 2.13% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2,533.68 yuan/ton, down 56.85 yuan or 2.19% [4]. Palm Oil - As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 585,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 56,400 tons or 8.79% [7]. - The futures price of the main contract was 9,126 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan or 0.80% from the previous day. The national average price was 9,065 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan or 1.23% [6]. Cotton - The U.S. cotton area's boll - opening rate reached 60%, and the harvest progress was 12%. The good - to - excellent rate decreased by 5% to 47% week - on - week, but was 10% higher than the same period [9]. - The domestic new cotton harvest progress reached 0.8%. The opening price of new cotton showed no obvious price - support behavior. The import volume of cotton resources in August was about 193,410 tons [10]. - The futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The domestic spot price was 15,091 yuan/ton, down 69.5 yuan or 0.46% [8]. Jujubes - The main jujube - producing areas have entered the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season jujube output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared to previous years [14]. - The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10,785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [12]. Live Pigs - The main contract Lh2511 was stable at 12,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 12,860 yuan/ton, down 0.16% [17]. - In September, the planned slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month. The long - term supply pressure may gradually ease as the inventory of fertile sows decreases [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish on px - mx [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [4] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market have led to a short - term rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is under downward pressure [1][7][9]. - LPG is affected by the cost - end rebound and weak downstream demand, showing a weakening trend [1][12][13]. - L has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with strong supply and demand fundamentally but insufficient upward drive [1][18]. - PP has improved cost support, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and slow - rising demand [1][23]. - PVC has good cost support and strong exports, but the supply - demand situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [1][28]. - PX's supply - demand tight - balance expectation is loosening, and it is expected to be weak [1][31][32]. - PTA's supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [2][35][36]. - Ethylene glycol's supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, but the low inventory provides some support [2][40][41]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is still large, but the demand has improved, and the downward space may be limited [2][43][45]. - Urea's supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [2][48][50]. - Natural gas in the US has seen an unexpected inventory build - up, leading to a weakening price, but the cooling weather provides some support [4]. - Asphalt is under pressure due to the weak cost - end and loose supply - demand situation [4]. - Glass has a weak reality and strong expectation, with supply under pressure and demand insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Soda ash's supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.81%, Brent up 1.52%, and SC down 1.84% [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances and unexpected inventory draw - down in the US provided short - term support, but the long - term supply is in surplus [7][8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the break - even point of shale oil new wells around $60 [9]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,247 yuan/ton, down 1.07% [11]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end crude oil has a supply surplus, and the demand for downstream chemicals has weakened, with high warehouse receipts [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] yuan/ton [13]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with abundant supply and strengthening demand [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long, focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,200] yuan/ton [18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, short - term stop - falling, with supply pressure expected to ease and rising demand [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices, do not chase short at low absolute prices, focus on the range of [6,800 - 6,950] yuan/ton [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improved, exports were strong, but supply was stronger than demand, and inventory was accumulating [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips due to low valuation, focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] yuan/ton [28]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [31]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side changes were small, demand was expected to weaken, and the supply - demand tight - balance expectation was loosening [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [6,515 - 6,600] yuan/ton [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season was underperforming, and the demand was weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short at high prices, focus on the range of [4,550 - 4,600] yuan/ton [36]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [39]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was expected to increase, demand was weak, but low inventory provided some support [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] yuan/ton [41]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure was still large, but demand had improved, and cost support was stabilizing [43][44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract, focus on the range of [2,335 - 2,365] yuan/ton [45]. Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton [47]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was relatively loose, demand was weak at home and strong abroad, and inventory was accumulating [48][49]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously, look for opportunities to go long at low valuations, focus on the range of [1,650 - 1,670] yuan/ton [50]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: As of the week of September 12, the US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Unexpected inventory build - up led to price weakening, but cooling weather provided some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end was weak, supply - demand was loose, and the valuation was high [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was under pressure, demand was insufficient, and inventory was expected to increase [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short term, be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply was expected to be loose, and demand was mostly for rigid needs [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周豆粕库存环比增加，国内短期供应充足，美豆收获临近令豆粕承压，但由于中 | | 豆粕 | | 美贸易问题支持，豆粕短线持续下跌空间亦有限，暂以大区间行情对待。阿根廷出 | | ★ | 短线下跌 | 口降税至零叠加美豆收获，利空美豆及国内豆粕，昨日豆粕破位下行，短期有回补 | | | | 缺口支持的意图。看多观望为宜。关注美豆收获季下中美贸易进展。 | | 菜粕 | | 贸易政策及高库存导致菜粕多空因素交织，区间行情对待。中方延期对加籽的反倾 | | | 短线下跌 | 调查时间，显示中加贸易谈判仍需时日，但考虑到中澳菜籽贸易流通，利多程度有 | | ★ | | 限。菜粕走势暂以跟随豆粕趋势为主，关注中加贸易进展。 | | | | 印尼及马来生柴政策利多棕榈油市场消费预期，并且 9 月中印存在采买需求。基本 | | 棕榈油 | | 面展望偏多，逢低看多思路为主。但美生柴政策变数频发，拖累棕榈油调整，考虑 | | | 短线延续调整 | 美豆油端近期利空因素较多，或抑制本月棕榈油表现。隔夜棕榈油下破 9200 元， | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is recommended for long - term holding due to Trump's attitude change on the Russia - Ukraine issue, unclear US economic prospects, large - scale gold purchases by global gold ETF funds, and multiple new highs of gold prices. The medium - and long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged, and it has strategic allocation value [1]. - Silver is expected to rise strongly. It follows the upward trend of gold, with strong global policy stimulus and firm demand, and there is an obvious supply - demand gap. However, the fluctuations of gold and other varieties will impact the silver market [1]. - For copper, it is recommended to take profit on long positions before the National Day holiday due to the approaching holiday and the fermentation of risk - aversion sentiment. In the long - term, copper is still favored [1]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. It is recommended to take profit on short positions before the National Day holiday. In the long - term, zinc has an increasing supply and decreasing demand, and is a short - side configuration in the sector [1]. - Lead is under pressure to rebound as domestic lead - producing enterprises resume production, while the expected consumption peak is still in doubt [1]. - Tin is expected to rebound. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is slow, there are maintenance and production stoppages in the domestic supply, and terminal consumption provides support [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure. There is an expected decrease in the arrival of bauxite from Guinea, and the destocking of aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas is not smooth [1]. - Nickel is expected to rebound. There are disturbances in the overseas Indonesian nickel ore end, and there is a certain peak - season consumption expectation in the downstream stainless - steel terminal field [1]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Supply decreases month - on - month while polycrystalline output increases slightly, and the inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle" [1]. - Polysilicon is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The production schedule in September is basically the same as that in August, and the downstream silicon - wafer demand shows certain resilience [1]. - Lithium carbonate is under pressure to rebound. Production continues to increase, but the total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Due to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation and unclear US economic prospects, gold prices have risen significantly [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's change of stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, unclear US economic prospects, continuous inflow of funds (the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust has reached the highest level since August 2022), and in the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold can be bought both in the short - and long - term, with short - term support at 8400. Silver has support around 9800, but position and rhythm need to be considered when buying. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated, closing with a doji [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight. In August, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates increased year - on - year, while imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is still deeply inverted, and domestic electrolytic copper production may decrease in September [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions of copper and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, copper is favored due to its strategic importance and the tight supply of copper concentrates. Shanghai copper is recommended to focus on the range of [78500, 81500] yuan/ton, and LME copper on the range of [9850, 10500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. In August, imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In September, domestic smelter maintenance increased, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. Inventory shows different trends at home and abroad, and demand is affected by the typhoon [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Before the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare for an empty or light - position holiday. In the long - term, short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Shanghai zinc is recommended to focus on the range of [21800, 22200] yuan/ton, and LME zinc on the range of [2850, 2950] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises has a slight increase. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply pressure increases [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20500 - 21500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded from a low level, and stainless steel showed a rebound trend [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - level interest rate cuts are in line with expectations. In the domestic nickel industry chain, the supply of refined nickel has a large surplus pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. For stainless steel, there is still an expectation of a consumption peak season, but the actual situation needs to be observed [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel in the short - term, paying attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121000 - 123000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and fluctuated widely during the session, and closed slightly lower [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of lithium carbonate has not significantly shrunk, and the demand side has released a lot of positive news. The total inventory has been decreasing for 6 consecutive weeks, and the smelter inventory is significantly lower than that of the same period last year [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73000 - 74500] yuan/ton [22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold, rated ★★ [1] - Silver: Expected to rise strongly, rated ★★ [1] - Copper: In September, take profit on long positions, rated ★ [1] - Zinc: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation in September, rated ★ [1] - Lithium carbonate: Rebound under pressure, rated ★ [1] Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver are favored in the long - term. Gold is supported by factors such as geopolitical changes, economic uncertainty, and expected global monetary easing. Silver has strong demand and a significant supply - demand gap. Both are expected to rise in the long run. However, silver is more volatile [1][2][3]. - For copper, although there are short - term factors such as the disappointment of interest - rate cut expectations and holiday risk - aversion sentiment, it is still promising in the long term due to its strategic importance and supply - demand situation [1][5][6]. - Zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the long term, so it is a short - position configuration in the sector, but short - term risk - aversion sentiment may lead to the need to take profit on short positions [1][7][9]. - Other metals such as lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, and polysilicon are currently facing different supply - demand situations, and their prices are generally under pressure to rebound [1]. - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand booming, and it is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices [1][18][21]. Summary by Catalog Gold and Silver Market Review - Large inflows of funds and factors such as the risk of a US government shutdown have supported gold to reach new historical highs both domestically and internationally [2]. Basic Logic - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. There is continuous inflow of funds into gold, with the持仓 of the world's largest gold ETF reaching a new high since August 2022. Under geopolitical changes and economic uncertainty, gold is strong in the short term and may have a long - term bull market [2]. Strategy Recommendation - Gold can be bought both in the short and long term. For silver, although there is support around 9800, due to its high volatility, careful consideration of position and rhythm is needed when buying in the short term. In general, the long - term bullish logic for both gold and silver remains unchanged [3]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper has stopped falling and stabilized, while London copper has returned to the $10,000 mark, showing a pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic markets [5]. Industrial Logic - Copper concentrate supply is tight. The import volume of copper concentrates and unforged copper in August has different trends. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September may decline [5]. Strategy Recommendation - In September, the domestic LPR remained unchanged, and the market's interest - rate cut expectations were disappointed. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, copper is still promising. Pay attention to specific price ranges for Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc Market Review - Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded [8]. Industrial Logic - In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose, but the domestic production of zinc concentrates has decreased. The inventory performance is divided, with the LME zinc inventory decreasing and the SHFE zinc inventory increasing. The consumption in the peak season in September is expected to be good, but downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [8]. Strategy Recommendation - With the approaching of the National Day holiday, it is recommended to gradually take profit on short positions of Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the long term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds [9]. Aluminum Market Review - Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [11]. Industrial Logic - For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The domestic production in August increased slightly, and the inventory situation is different for aluminum ingots and aluminum rods. For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is abundant, but the rainy season may affect the arrival volume in September, and the supply - side pressure is increasing [12]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [13]. Nickel Market Review - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, and stainless steel has also shown a rebound trend [15]. Industrial Logic - Overseas interest - rate cuts are in line with expectations. The supply - demand situation within the domestic nickel industry chain is differentiated, with a large supply surplus of refined nickel and a relatively tight situation in the nickel sulfate segment. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the arrival of overseas goods and the increase in domestic production in September mean that the performance of the peak - season consumption needs to be observed [16]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of terminal consumption. Pay attention to the specific price range for nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract LC2511 first rose and then fell, closing in the red at the end of the session [19]. Industrial Logic - The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the weekly production and operating rate have increased slightly. The demand has received policy support, and the total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks. The issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract market attention at the end of the month [20]. Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices within the range of [72700 - 74700] [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions [1][7][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][10][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][18][19][20] Core Views - **Rebar**: Although there are positive changes in supply and demand with improved sequential apparent demand, slightly decreased production, and reduced inventory, the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high due to high hot metal production. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still a drag. After the macro events are realized, the sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to move within a range [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has declined, while the production and inventory have increased slightly. The overall change is small, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced with few contradictions. The high hot metal production and weak overall steel demand result in a lack of upward driving force on the supply-demand side, and the price will move within a range [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: With increasing hot metal production, reduced supply, and pre-National Day steel mill restocking, the fundamentals are strong [1][7][8] - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been proposed but not yet implemented. Coke enterprises have decent profits, and the spot production is relatively stable. High hot metal production leads to high raw material demand. The supply and demand of coke are relatively balanced, and the price will move within a range following coking coal [1][10][12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal production is recovering and approaching last year's level, with an improved supply margin. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is high, and the import volume remains at a high level. The slightly increased hot metal production ensures raw material demand. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the tight situation has improved. There may be policy disturbances on the supply side later, and the price will move within a range [1][14][16] - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals are becoming looser, and after the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking in production areas may become more difficult. The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited. After the rapid release of the short-term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. The enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts have stopped decreasing and started to increase, with a still high absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. After the short-term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][18][19][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of steel futures (rebar and hot-rolled coil) and spot are provided, including different contract months and regions [2] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Rebar shows improved apparent demand, slightly decreased production, and reduced inventory, while hot-rolled coil has declining apparent demand and slightly increased production and inventory [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The overall downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the supply-demand driving force is limited. The price of both rebar and hot-rolled coil is expected to move within a range [5] Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are presented [6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The hot metal production is increasing, the supply is shrinking, and the pre-National Day steel mill restocking makes the fundamentals strong [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions [9] Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures and spot, along with various price spreads and basis, are given [11] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The first round of price increase has been proposed but not implemented. Coke enterprises have stable production, and high hot metal production leads to high demand. The supply and demand are relatively balanced [12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [13] Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are provided [15] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The domestic production is recovering, and the import volume is high. The slightly increased hot metal production ensures demand. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not significant [16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [17] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot, as well as various price spreads and basis, are presented [18] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The fundamentals of ferromanganese are becoming looser, and the supply-demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent [19] - **Operation Suggestion**: For both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, after the rapid release of the short-term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Low-level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish continuation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply is in excess, and prices are under downward pressure. LPG is affected by high warehouse receipts and weak cost, with prices trending downwards. L and PP have insufficient upward drivers due to balanced supply and demand. PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals. PX and PTA are affected by supply - demand expectations and macro factors, showing a weakening trend. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and weak demand. Methanol's downward space may be limited. Urea has a supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation. Natural gas prices are affected by inventory and seasonality. Asphalt is pressured by cost and supply - demand. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply and demand in the real estate and downstream industries [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.19%, Brent down 0.11%, and SC down 1.43% [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks decline, supply is in excess, and the US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly decreased, providing short - term support. In the long - term, supply may push prices down to around $60 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the $60 support level and the [470 - 480] range for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 20, the PG main contract closed at 4,293 yuan/ton, down 1.72% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil is weak, demand is weak, warehouse receipts are at a high level, supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the [4250 - 4350] range [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, with a decline [17] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, the basis continues to repair. Supply is abundant, and demand is strengthening, but there is insufficient upward drive [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. Pay attention to the [7050 - 7200] range [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, with a decline [22] - **Basic Logic**: The market is bearish, the basis is strengthening, cost pressure is high, supply pressure may ease, and demand is slowly increasing [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Do not chase short positions for absolute prices. Pay attention to the [6800 - 6950] range [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, with a decline [27] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, warehouse receipts decline, supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Exports are strong [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try long positions on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [4850 - 5000] range [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, with a decline [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is high, and macro factors are negative [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and sell call options. Pay attention to the [6500 - 6580] range [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, with a decline [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, demand is weak, and cost support exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the [4525 - 4575] range [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, with a decline [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is low, providing some support [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the [4200 - 4240] range [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,361 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is still large, but demand is improving, and cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [2331 - 2361] range [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: US natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, and prices are weakening. Cooling weather provides some support [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold short positions [4] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, supply pressure is increasing, and supply - demand is loose [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short on rebounds [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving, supply is expected to be loose, and pay attention to downstream restocking [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline in soybean meal**: Domestic short - term supply is sufficient, and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on soybean meal. However, due to Sino - US trade issues, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. There is a possibility of a retracement to 2930 yuan for support confirmation. Be cautious about bullish operations before the holiday [1][4]. - **Short - term decline in rapeseed meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in palm oil**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are positive for consumption expectations, but frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may limit its performance before the double holidays. Be cautious about bullish operations [1][8]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in soybean oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and the approaching US soybean harvest may pressure soybean oil, while domestic double - festival stocking demand is positive, but there is a lack of its own upward - driving force. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end [1]. - **Oscillating and bullish in rapeseed oil**: Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand support high - level and strong oscillations, but the resumption of Sino - Australian trade restricts continuous upward movement. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian negotiations and US biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautiously bearish on cotton**: US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries' increasing supply pressures the market, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting has started with no obvious price - holding behavior. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][12]. - **Cautiously bearish on red dates**: Although there is an expected reduction in new - season production, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap after considering inventory. The weather speculation window is shrinking, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][14]. - **Cautiously bearish on live pigs**: The spot market is under continuous pressure from supply, and the bearish sentiment in the futures market is rising. In the short and medium term, supply pressure is obvious. Consider short - selling the November contract on rebounds and maintaining the reverse - spread strategy [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, down 70.3 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons week - on - week; and bean粕 inventory was 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average soybean crushing profit was - 150.7804 yuan/ton, up 14.45 yuan; the basis of bean粕01 was - 84 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.79 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [5]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 172.3755 yuan/ton, up 18.69 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal01 was 42 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the national key area commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons week - on - week; the weekly commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons [7][8]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of bullish views was 29%, down 6 percentage points; the proportion of bearish views was 47%, up 29 percentage points [7]. Cotton - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - **Prices**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13610 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the domestic spot price was 15242 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9][10]. - **Operation and Profit**: The mainstream area spinning mills' operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage point; the weaving mills' operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the spinning mills' cotton profit was - 994.30 yuan/ton, up 112.20 yuan [9]. Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Prices**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10735 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day; the spot price of Kashgar general - grade dates remained unchanged at 6 yuan/kg [13]. - **Market Situation**: The yield is expected to decrease, but there may not be a significant supply - demand gap after considering inventory [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig存栏 was 3782.4 million heads, up 0.51%; the planned September slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month [15][16]. - **Prices**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the latest spot price was 12930 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [15][16]. - **Operation and Profit**: The key slaughter enterprises' daily operating rate was 32.95%, up 0.21 percentage points; the slaughter profit was - 18.2 yuan/head, up 0.70 yuan [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are expected to improve, and the price is likely to continue its low-level rebound. The cost support has improved due to the firm performance of calcium carbide prices, and the supply pressure is expected to ease as more maintenance plans are scheduled for October. Although exports are affected by policies, the growth rate remains strong. The inventory structure of the industrial chain is differentiated, and the spot price is firm. With the strengthening of the basis, the risk-free arbitrage space in the industry has disappeared, and the hedging pressure has decreased [4]. Summary of Each Section PVC Market Review - This week, PVC fluctuated and rose. It opened higher on Monday at 4883 (up 12 points or 0.24% from last week's close), fell slightly to the daily low of 4863, and then rose strongly. It reached a new monthly high of 4994 on Wednesday morning before falling slightly, and finally closed at 4950 (up 74 points or 1.48% from last week's close). The weekly range was between 4863 and 4994, with an amplitude of 131 points [8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4950 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 74 yuan). The main position of PVC was 1.13 million lots, and the market sentiment improved, leading to a rebound with reduced positions [11]. - As of Friday, the PVC basis in Changzhou was -170 yuan/ton, and both the futures and spot prices strengthened slightly. The PVC warehouse receipts were 110,000 lots (weekly decrease of 10,000 lots) [13]. - As of Friday, the V1 - 5 spread was -303 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the V3 - 5 spread was -226 yuan/ton (increase of 10 yuan) [16]. - This week, the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 223 yuan/ton (decrease of 70 yuan) [19]. Supply - The intensity of device maintenance increased, and the output declined from a high level. This week, the PVC output was 460,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. The cumulative output from week 1 to 38 increased by 4.3% year - on - year [22]. - Next week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC is expected to be 78%, higher than the current level. The maintenance of Gansu Jinchuan and Zhongtai Shengxiong plants will end, and there are no new enterprises joining the maintenance, so the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Real Estate - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were -19.5%, -9.3%, -17.0%, and -4.7% respectively, with the decline rates expanding. In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes were -19.8%, -28.6%, -21.3%, and -11.0% respectively, and the decline rate of sales area has been expanding for 5 consecutive months. In August 2025, the year - on - year change of the new commercial housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities was -2.95% [25]. - This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.2 million square meters [28]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 49%, increasing for 3 consecutive weeks and exceeding the level of the same period last year. Among them, the operating rate of pipes has increased significantly in the past two weeks [30]. Exports - From January to August 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.57 million tons (an increase of 910,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55%. In August 2025, the export volume was 28,400 tons (including 11,000 tons to India) [33]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 245,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%). In July 2025, the export volume of PVC flooring was 35,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%). (Note: Each ton of PVC flooring consumes about 0.3 tons of PVC powder) [36]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 310,000 tons (a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week), with inventory reduction for 2 consecutive weeks. The pre - sales volume of upstream enterprises was 756,000 tons (an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week), at a high level in the same period. The PVC price fluctuated slightly this week, and manufacturers sold goods with price support and delivered some export orders. It is expected that the in - stock inventory of PVC enterprises will decrease slightly next week [39]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 530,000 tons (an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous week), with inventory accumulation for 13 consecutive weeks and a total inventory accumulation of 365,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was -502 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81 yuan from the previous week), with profit contraction for 3 consecutive weeks [44]. - This week, the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was -672 yuan/ton, with profit contraction for 6 consecutive weeks [47].