1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Volatility**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, Soybean oil [1] - **Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term volatility is expected due to the intersection of long and short factors such as the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade negotiations, and dry weather in Brazilian soybean planting. The adjustment space is limited before the Sino - US negotiations start [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to show short - term volatility, following the trend of soybean meal. Trade policies and high inventory lead to the intersection of long and short factors. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still takes time, and the positive impact is limited [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The Indonesian government's bio - fuel policies are expected to increase future demand, but the absence of the Southeast Asian减产 season may limit the continuous upward space [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, mainly following the palm oil market. The US government shutdown and other factors have led to an optimistic sentiment in the US soybean market [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to run strongly. Low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment of hoarding and price - holding, and the consumption peak season, along with the hype of palm oil's bio - fuel concept, support its bullish trend [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish. The supply of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the demand has not improved significantly. In the domestic market, new cotton harvesting is progressing, and the demand outlook is weak [1][10][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Considering the expected production and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruits are listed. Although the concern about quality is gradually alleviated, there may be significant price fluctuations due to weather speculation [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is strong due to the active slaughter of large farms and increased slaughter by retail farmers. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [1][17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 938500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40200 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 719910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25250 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 118920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6080 tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2939 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 3025.14 yuan/ton. The basis of different contracts and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 2600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2435 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 2593.16 yuan/ton. The basis and cross - variety spreads changed [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 552200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32900 tons. The Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 9570 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 9555 yuan/ton. The cross - period and cross - variety spreads showed changes [7]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting is ongoing, and the demand is weak [10][11]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The cotton profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the开机 rates of spinning mills and weaving factories were relatively stable [9]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The estimated new - season production is 560000 - 620000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons compared with the previous period [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts increased slightly, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The arrival volume in Guangdong increased [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong due to the large - scale enterprises'出栏 pressure and the increase in the number of slaughtered pigs. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [17]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, and the basis, cross - period spreads, and other indicators changed. The national sample enterprises'生猪存栏 and出栏 increased slightly [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Silver: Callback to go long (★★) [1] - Copper: Long - term holding (★★) [1] - Zinc: Rebound (★), with a view of selling on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Tin: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall (★) [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure (★) [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound (★) [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish (★) [1] Core Views - For precious metals, the geopolitical situation and central bank gold - buying support long - term prices, but short - term adjustments occur due to events like the cease - fire in the Middle East [1][3] - For base metals, supply - demand imbalances lead to different price trends. For example, copper is long - term bullish due to supply shortages and strong demand, while zinc is a bearish configuration in the medium - long term due to increasing supply and weakening demand [1][7][11] - For new energy metals like lithium carbonate, policy expectations and demand support prices, but attention should be paid to supply - side factors such as mine复产 [1][23] Summary by Variety Gold - **Market situation**: After the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, the safe - haven sentiment partially withdrew, and gold adjusted from its high level [2] - **Logic**: Factors such as the US government shutdown, political uncertainties in France and Japan, and central bank gold - buying support the long - term rise of gold prices. The cease - fire in the Middle East causes short - term adjustments [3] - **Strategy**: Long - term positions should be held. Short - term investors can buy on dips. Domestic gold may test the 900 support level [1][4] Silver - **Market situation**: It fluctuates greatly following gold, with a significant drop after reaching a high [1] - **Logic**: Global policy stimulus leads to strong demand and an obvious supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices. Gold price fluctuations impact the silver market [1] - **Strategy**: Short - term investors can try to go long, and long - term investors should hold [1] Copper - **Market situation**: Shanghai copper reached the 88,000 - yuan mark and then quickly fell back, while LME copper was close to its historical high [7] - **Logic**: Supply shortages due to mine accidents and production cuts, along with strong demand from emerging industries, drive up prices. However, high prices suppress short - term demand [7] - **Strategy**: Hold existing long positions with trailing stops. New long positions should wait for a pull - back to stabilize. Long - term bullish. Shanghai copper focus range is [84,500, 88,500] yuan/ton, and LME copper is [10,000, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][8] Zinc - **Market situation**: Zinc prices rose overnight and then fell back, with LME zinc back above the 3,000 - dollar mark. The domestic and overseas trends are divergent, with the domestic market being weaker [11] - **Logic**: Domestic supply is relatively loose, while overseas inventories are low. Demand from real estate and infrastructure is weak, but export may increase [11] - **Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. Sell - hedging can be arranged on rallies. In the medium - long term, it is a bearish configuration. Shanghai zinc focus range is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and LME zinc is [2,900, 3,100] dollars/ton [12] Aluminum - **Market situation**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell, while alumina continued to be weak [14] - **Logic**: There is an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. The domestic aluminum inventory increased during the holiday, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [15] - **Strategy**: In the short term, take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in the downstream processing enterprises'开工 rate. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is [20,600 - 21,500] [16] Nickel - **Market situation**: Nickel prices rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices slightly declined [18] - **Logic**: The supply of nickel ore is relatively sufficient, and the domestic pure nickel inventory increased slightly. The downstream consumption season is uncertain, and the inventory of stainless steel increased [19] - **Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see. Pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is [121,000 - 125,000] [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The main contract LC2511 rose and then fell back, with the late - session gain narrowing [22] - **Logic**: Policy requirements and export controls impact the market. The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the battery industry is relatively stable, which supports the price [23] - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips in the range of [72,800 - 74,500] [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1][7][9] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1][12][13] - L: Bearish consolidation [1][15][18] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1][20][23] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [1][25][28] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1][32][33] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1][36][37] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [1][40][41] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [1][45][47] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [1][50][52] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [1][5][53] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [1][5] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [1][5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and macro - economic impacts. Most products are expected to show a bearish or weak - oscillating trend, but some products may have short - term opportunities based on specific supply - demand and cost changes [1][7][32] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 0.47% and Brent up 1.22%, while SC had no quote due to the holiday [6] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, with oil prices likely to be pressured to around $60 [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is expected to increase as OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. Demand is expected to be lower than supply in 2025 - 2026. US commercial crude inventory increased in the week ending October 3 [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [470 - 485] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different changes [10][11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as the oil price center moves down and Saudi Arabia lowers the CP contract price. Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4150 - 4250] [13] L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price was 7,153 yuan/ton, down 0.4%. Other related prices and positions also had corresponding changes [16] - **Basic Logic**: It mainly follows cost fluctuations. The cost support weakens as crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It runs weakly in the short term due to cost factors. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closing price was 6,852 yuan/ton, down 0.7%. Other related prices and positions changed accordingly [21][22] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations. Crude oil prices decline slightly during the holiday, while propylene is strong. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation and upstream device changes [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [6800 - 6950] [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price was 4,839 yuan/ton, down 1.2%. Other related prices and positions had corresponding changes [26][27] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens as crude oil and calcium carbide prices decline slightly during the holiday. Pay attention to post - holiday inventory accumulation. The low valuation limits the downside [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pull - back to try long positions. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PX spot price was 6,624 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [30][31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices are slightly increasing load, while demand - side PTA maintenance is high, leading to a loose supply - demand expectation. Macroeconomic factors also put pressure on oil prices [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially stop - profit short positions, short on rebounds, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [6490 - 6600] for PX511 [33] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 30, the PTA price in East China was 4,545 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [34][35] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to expected device maintenance. Demand has improved recently. 9 - month supply - demand was in tight balance, but it is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop - profit short positions gradually after the holiday. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4520 - 4600] for TA01 [37] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 30, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,275 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [38][39] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices slightly increase load, overseas devices change little. Terminal demand has short - term improvement but is under pressure in the future. There is an expected increase in supply after the holiday [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions should be gradually stopped - profit after the holiday's low - opening and rebound. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of [4145 - 4210] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 30, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,290 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure remains large as domestic devices resume production and overseas device load declines. Demand has improved, and cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2311 - 2351] for MA01 [47] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 30, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton. Other related prices and positions changed [48][49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose as enterprises resume production. Demand is weak domestically but good for exports. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support exists [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions cautiously. Look for long - term opportunities to go long at low prices. Focus on the range of [1640 - 1670] for UR601 [52] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively sufficient, causing gas prices to decline. The increase in rig count and the need for winter gas storage have some impact on prices [5] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side is bearish as oil prices decline. Supply - demand is loose, and the valuation is high. Hold short positions [1][5] Glass - **Basic Logic**: The spot price was firm before the holiday, and the basis was continuously repaired. Factory inventory has been decreasing for 3 weeks. Pay attention to downstream restocking during the peak season. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions on the alkali - glass spread in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: The futures market is in a high - premium structure, and industrial hedging pressures the market. The demand for heavy soda has improved, and enterprise inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Supply is expected to be loose [1][5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Be bearish on rebounds in the long term [5]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 节日期间现货变化不大，高炉生产基本正常，检修不多。螺纹表需受节日影响环比下降， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产量略降，库存上升。整体来看，建筑钢材下游需求仍显疲弱，房地产及基建表现继续 | | | | 形成拖累，供需驱动力量有限，短期区间运行。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷表需受节日影响环比回落，产量小幅下降，库存上升，总体符合季节性表现。钢材 | | ★ | | 整体需求仍然偏弱，供需层面缺少持续向上驱动，或维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 截止到 10 月 7 日，今年十一小长假期间进口铁矿石市场表现出较为冷清的状态，海外 掉期与往期小长假期间表现一样处于窄幅震荡的状态。掉期价格较节前上涨 0.68％。 | | | 轻多参与 | | | ★ | | 节后来看，假期铁水产量高企，对矿价仍有支撑，节后钢厂预计有阶段性补库，带动矿 | | | | 价走强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货第一轮提涨已落地，焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润一般，现货生产相对稳定。铁水 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 产量维持高 ...

中辉有色观点 | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 美国政府停摆、法国总理上任不足一月辞职、日本政治不确定性共同推高了避险情 | | ★★★ | 跳空高开 | 绪。短期沪金或挑战 910 位置，短线追高需要控制节奏仓位。中长期黄金支撑逻辑 | | | | 不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄金战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银跟随黄金、铜等市场大幅波动，短期情绪高涨。全球政策刺激明显，白银需求 | | 白银 | 跳空高开 | 坚挺，供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。黄金等品种波动会白银盘面波动有 | | ★★ | | 冲击。短线可试多，长线长期持有 | | | | 宏微共振，投机资金涌入铜市，伦铜创年内新高，节后沪铜或跟涨高开。建议铜前 | | 铜 | | 期多单继续持有，新多单等待回调企稳再入场，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 贵金属的平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，长期看好。 | | | | 国庆假期，伦锌震荡走强，伦锌库存不足 4 万吨，软挤仓风险 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Rebound**: Bean meal, rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil [1] - **Stronger Operation**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Cotton, live pigs [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Red dates [1] Core Views - **Bean Meal**: Short - term rebound expected due to potential US - China trade talks on soybeans, post - holiday market recovery in China, and dry planting weather in Brazil [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, with multiple factors in a tug - of - war. It is likely to follow the trend of bean meal as social inventory may decrease during the holiday [1]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The B50 biodiesel policy in Indonesia and reduced inventory in Malaysia are expected to boost domestic palm oil prices after the holiday [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish. Influenced by the US - China trade situation, Brazilian weather, and the palm oil market, it is expected to open higher after the holiday [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Expected to run strongly due to low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment, and the entry into the consumption season [1]. - **Cotton**: Bearish. Supply pressure from new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, weak demand, and no significant support from the spot market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. New fruit may face pressure after listing. There may be volatile price movements before November, and short - selling opportunities on price rebounds are recommended [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Bearish. High supply and expected weakening demand may lead to further decline in futures prices after the holiday. Short - allocation and reverse spreads are recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Bean Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 938.5 million tons, up 40.2 million tons week - on - week. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 719.91 million tons, up 3.63% week - on - week, and bean meal inventory was 118.92 million tons, down 4.86% week - on - week [3]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2928 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The national average spot price was 3018.57 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: As of September 26, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 2.6 million tons, down 2 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.5 million tons, down 0.25 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 2421 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. The national average spot price was 2581.05 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. Palm Oil - **Market Data**: As of September 26, 2025, national key region commercial inventory was 55.22 million tons, down 5.62% week - on - week, up 9.16% year - on - year [8]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract was 9228 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The national average price was 9185 yuan/ton, down 1.18% [7]. Cotton - **Market Data**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 103.15 million tons, lower than the same period last year. Spinning mill operating rates were relatively stable, and weaving mill operating rates declined slightly [9][11]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CF2601 was 13215 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The China Cotton Price Index (3128B) dropped 103 yuan/ton during the holiday [9][10]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: Mysteel estimated new - season production at 56 - 62 million tons. 36 sample enterprises' physical inventory was 9203 tons, down 44 tons week - on - week [15]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract CJ2601 was 10820 yuan/ton, down 0.87%. Spot prices were generally stable [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Data**: National sample enterprises' monthly生猪存栏量 was 3782.4 million, up 0.51%, and monthly出栏量 was 1117.72 million, up 2.39% [17]. - **Price and Spread**: Futures price of the main contract Lh2511 was 12355 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. National average spot price of external ternary pigs dropped to 12.51 yuan/kg during the holiday [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [6] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [6] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production expansion lead to increased crude oil price volatility, with a downward pressure on prices in the long - term. For other energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][4][6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.45%, Brent down 3.08%, and SC up 1.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to late September, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries caused oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting, and in the long - term, supply may exceed demand, likely pushing oil prices down to around $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply from the Iraq - Turkey pipeline has recovered to 15 - 160,000 barrels per day. Indian refinery crude processing volume in August decreased by 4.4% month - on - month. As of September 19, US commercial crude inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [475 - 485] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weakening, downstream chemical demand is rising, and the supply is abundant during the double - festival. As of September 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [15] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,181 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [19] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. Social inventory has been decreasing for 5 weeks. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strengthening due to the peak season of shed films [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,903 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [24] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The supply pressure may ease, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] for PP [25] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,896 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [29] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak, with inventory accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro - expectations support the price. There are many planned device overhauls in October [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [30] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [33] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, and demand - side PTA may have more overhauls later. The supply - demand balance is expected to be loose, and inventory is still relatively high [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6560 - 6670] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,590 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to planned overhauls. Demand has improved recently. The supply - demand balance in September is tight and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually stop loss on short positions. Hold long positions lightly before the festival and look for opportunities to short on rebounds after the festival. Focus on the range of [4560 - 4650] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Terminal demand has improved, but inventory is low. The market is concerned about the supply increase from new devices [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4165 - 4240] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,293 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is still large, but demand has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, with production resuming. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory is accumulating [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long - term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Light long participation [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicon Iron**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The supply level is relatively high, and the supply - demand driving force is limited. After the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down, and the overall market maintains a range - bound operation [1][5] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron production increases again, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both increase. The pre - holiday replenishment is nearing the end, and the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises during the holiday is still strong. There is an expectation of a decline in foreign ore shipments, and the fundamentals continuously support the price [1][8] - **Coke**: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. The production of coke is relatively stable, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced, following coking coal in a range - bound operation [1][12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal production continues to recover, approaching the level of the same period last year, and the supply has marginally improved. The import volume is at a high level. The demand for raw materials is guaranteed, and the overall market is in a range - bound operation, with possible policy disturbances in the supply side later [1][16] - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is still limited. After the rapid release of the short - term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space of the price. After the short - term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, the output remains flat, and the inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The molten iron production continues to rise, and the overall supply level of steel is high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still drag down the market [1][4] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has little change, the output slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly increases. The overall change is small, and the supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. The molten iron production continues to rise, and the overall demand for steel is still weak, lacking upward driving force [1][4] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The molten iron production increases, the inventories of steel mills and ports both increase, and the pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The production enthusiasm of steel enterprises during the holiday is strong, and there is an expectation of a decline in foreign ore shipments [1][8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Lightly participate in long positions [1][9] Coke - **Market Situation**: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. The profit of coke enterprises is acceptable, and the production is relatively stable. The output decreases slightly month - on - month, but the inventory increases. The molten iron production continues to rise and remains at a high level, with high demand for raw materials. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, following coking coal [1][12] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][13] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The domestic coking coal production continues to recover, approaching the level of the same period last year, and the supply has marginally improved. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and the import volume is running at a high level. The molten iron production slightly increases, and the demand for raw materials is guaranteed. The total inventory continues to increase, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the tight situation has improved. There may be policy disturbances in the supply side later [1][16] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][17] Silicon Manganese - **Market Situation**: The supply in the production area decreases slightly but the absolute value is still high. After the release of a new round of replenishment demand, the subsequent inventory reduction may become more difficult. The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][20] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the rapid release of the short - term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][21] Silicon Iron - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory is slightly reduced, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space of the price [1][20] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the short - term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term supply in China is sufficient. Before the holiday, the fundamentals are bearish, and caution is needed when going long. Due to the Sino - US trade tariff issue, the continuous downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to view it as a range - bound market. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations still take time. Its trend currently follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy drag down palm oil adjustment. The market expects Malaysian palm oil to continue to accumulate inventory in September, which may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile market. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil exports in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and the approaching US soybean harvest may put pressure on the soybean oil market. After the domestic double - festival spot inventory replenishment ends, it has recently followed the palm oil market. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel trends and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic rapeseed oil de - stocking cycle support the rapeseed oil price to maintain a high - level and strong - side oscillation. However, the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward performance. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian negotiations and the follow - up trends of US biodiesel policy [1]. - **Cotton**: The increasing supply from the US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the weak export demand and the high level of unpriced long positions, are expected to keep the cotton market under pressure. Domestically, the new cotton harvest has started, and the opening price is not strongly supported. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the foreign trade is affected by trade policies and exchange rates. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][9][11]. - **Red Dates**: Based on the current production expectations and carry - over inventory, there is still pressure after the new dates are launched. In the short term, the weather window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually alleviating, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to short on rallies during market speculation [1][13]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is under pressure from both the supply side and the feed price adjustment. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is obvious, and the spot price continues to decline. With the improvement of the inventory structure, pay attention to whether the spread between standard and fat hogs can widen during the peak season to drive the market up. In the far - month, there is no clear positive news in capacity regulation. It is recommended to short - allocate the November contract and maintain the inter - month reverse spread strategy, considering the 07 and future 09 contracts for the long side of the reverse spread [1][16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3014.29 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 160.6813 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.30 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, or 5.26%. The soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons, or 7.35% [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2405 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2581.05 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 228.7825 yuan/ton, down 22.41 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 9234 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day. The national average price is 9295 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 9382 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 million tons, or 8.79% [7]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 is 13350 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous day. The domestic spot price is 15059 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The ICE cotton main contract is 65.19 cents/pound, up 0.08% [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure is increasing as the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries enter the harvest season. Domestically, the new cotton processing is about 22%, the harvest in the northern Xinjiang is slightly delayed, and the demand is weak [9][10]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 is 10915 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from the previous day [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the demand in the sales area is weak [13]. Hogs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 2.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 12750 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long term, the sow inventory is decreasing [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - **Strategy**: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - **Logic**: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - **Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - **Logic**: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - **Logic**: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - **Logic**: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].