1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease and supply surplus pressure rises, leading to a downward trend in oil prices, but the decline space is narrowing [1][4] - LPG: High basis and improved downstream demand lead to a short - term rebound, and long positions can be partially taken profit [1][9] - L: With the approaching of the shed film peak season, the demand side strengthens, and it is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [1][16] - PP: Although the cost is weak in the short term, with the approaching of the demand peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [1][23] - PVC: After India announced the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1][30] - PX: The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and with the weakening of oil prices, it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [1][35] - PTA: Although the supply pressure is expected to increase later, considering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [1][39] - Ethylene glycol: Supply increases and demand is expected to recover, but the inventory is low, so it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [2][43] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases and demand is weak, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][47] - Urea: Supply is sufficient and domestic demand is weak, but export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][51] - Asphalt: The cost is under pressure and supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season, so it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Last Friday, international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 3.10% (due to contract roll - over), Brent decreased 1.48%, and SC rose 0.62% [3] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices. In the medium - long term, oil prices may be pressed to around $60 [4] - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August output was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to grow by 685,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 699,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week ending August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3 million barrels [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [475 - 495] [6] 3.2 LPG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PG main contract closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [7][8] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weak, but the basis is high, and the supply and demand situation improves with both supply and inventory decreasing, leading to a short - term rebound [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the price mainly follows the oil price. Partially take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3830 - 3930] [10] 3.3 L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,251 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Ningmei in North China was 7,280 yuan/ton [13][14] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices decline slightly, the basis weakens. With more device maintenance recently, the supply pressure eases. The shed film peak season is approaching, and the demand side strengthens. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [17] 3.4 PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China drawn wire was 7,051 yuan/ton [20][21] - **Basic Logic**: Oil prices decline, spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the basis weakens. Although the upstream maintains high - level maintenance, the demand peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season and buy on dips [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [24] 3.5 PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 contract closed at 4,954 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 399 [27][28] - **Basic Logic**: After the main contract roll - over and India's announcement of the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to hold short positions [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound and then short [31] 3.6 PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton [33][34] - **Basic Logic**: The supply side slightly increases production, the demand side weakens but is expected to improve. The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6620 - 6720] [36] 3.7 PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton [37][38] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to increase later. However, with the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions step by step, buy put options, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for TA. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4680 - 4750] [40] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton [41][42] - **Basic Logic**: The supply increases, and the demand is expected to recover. Although the inventory is low, it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4380 - 4425] [44] 3.9 Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the 01 main contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton [46] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure increases as the previous maintenance devices resume production, and the demand is weak. The social inventory accumulates, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions step by step, look for long - buying opportunities on 01, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage in batches. Pay attention to the range of MA [2390 - 2420] [48] 3.10 Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - granular urea in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton [49][50] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is sufficient, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [51] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions, and considering the potential of the autumn fertilizer peak season and export speculation, look for long - buying opportunities on 01. Pay attention to the range of UR [1725 - 1750] [53] 3.11 Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost is under pressure, supply increases while demand decreases, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [2] 3.12 Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamental pattern of PVC remains weak, and the futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend next week. Social inventories are continuously increasing. Although there are more planned device overhauls next week, new production capacities are being gradually released, so the supply is still under pressure. India has announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on PVC from the Chinese mainland, which will weaken the export support [4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the PVC2509 futures fluctuated between 4,938 and 5,077 yuan/ton, opening at 4,980 yuan/ton and closing at 4,954 yuan/ton, with a three - week consecutive decline and a smaller amplitude compared to last week. The fundamentals deteriorated marginally, with social inventories increasing for 8 consecutive weeks. The cost of calcium carbide decreased by 90 yuan/ton, weakening cost support [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,954 yuan/ton (down 39 yuan week - on - week), and the open interest was 370,000 lots (down 26 lots week - on - week), with an accelerated pace of open interest reduction [11]. - As of Friday, the PVC basis in Changzhou was - 104 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan week - on - week), the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 80,000 lots (up 17,000 lots week - on - week), and the delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 143 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 249 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased marginally due to the impact of coal prices, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium - carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, the PVC output was 480,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 80%. From week 1 to week 33, the cumulative output increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC is expected to be 77.61%, lower than the current level. Several enterprises have overhaul plans, and the overall supply is expected to decrease [22]. - Next week, multiple sets of devices from companies such as Xinzhongjia, Junzheng, and Zhongtai are planned for overhaul. Devices from companies like Haipingmian, Jinchuan, Ningbo Taishu, and Liancheng are planned for overhaul around September [23]. Real Estate - From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively, with the decline in sales area widening for 4 consecutive months. In July 2025, the year - on - year change in the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 5.85% [26]. - This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.07 million square meters, a week - on - week decrease of 16.6% [29]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved month - on - month, while the operating rate of films declined for 2 consecutive weeks [31]. Exports - From January to June 2025, the PVC export volume was 1.96 million tons (an increase of 660,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50%. In May 2025, the domestic PVC export volume was 260,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21% [34]. - India announced new anti - dumping duties on imported PVC on August 14, 2025, raising the duties on the Chinese mainland by 40 - 65 US dollars/ton, which is expected to limit the export of PVC from the Chinese mainland to the Indian market. 45% of the PVC exports in the first half of the year went to India, and this situation is expected to change in the second half of the year [35]. - From January to June 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.09 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11%. In June 2025, the export volume of PVC flooring was 320,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24% [38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 330,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons), with 8 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, totaling 75,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 490,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory increase, totaling 138,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory of PVC was 680,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons), with 8 consecutive weeks of inventory increase, totaling 242,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC was - 231 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 21 yuan) [44].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Bullish**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish (Trend)**: Palm Oil [1] - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton, Red Dates, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: In a situation where fundamental factors are weak and Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support, it is advisable to view it as a large - range market. After the hype of events cools down, the price has recently dropped slightly. With the support of Sino - US trade tariffs, it is mainly recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to position and risk control when chasing long positions [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Although the global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, there is a risk of a reduction in the new - year yield of Canadian rapeseed. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with the improvement of Sino - Australian trade, have cooled down the market hype. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips and be cautious when chasing long positions [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectations of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term rhythm of Zhengzhou cotton focuses on the supply problem before the new cotton is listed. The fast de - stocking speed and the lack of import quotas provide support for the bottom. The downstream will enter the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market, and orders have started to improve. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and previous low - position long positions can consider phased profit - taking [1][12]. - **Red Dates**: It is initially estimated that the total output of Xinjiang southern Xinjiang gray dates in the 2025/26 season will be in the range of 50 - 580,000 tons, and the reduction is a foregone conclusion. In the short term, the market hype period around the opening price is relatively long, and the de - stocking speed has accelerated recently. It is recommended to go long on dips [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm of the breeding end is smooth, and the previous pressure of second - fattening slaughter and the accelerated slaughter rhythm in August still put pressure on the spot end. The "weak reality, strong expectation" situation is still obvious. It is not recommended to blindly short - sell in the short term, and attention can be paid to establishing long positions in the far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations around strong contracts [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3096.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.938 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 701,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 7.1056 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 549,700 tons; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0035 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38,100 tons [3]. - **Analysis**: The continuous rise in US soybean prices has led to a decline in the Brazilian soybean premium. The procurement of imported soybeans in September in China has been fully completed, and more than half of the procurement for October has also been completed. The downstream feed enterprises are mainly cautious and wait - and - see [4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2546 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.21% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 138,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,800 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 32,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons [5]. - **Analysis**: From August to October, the import of rapeseed is significantly lower year - on - year, and the 100% Canadian rapeseed meal import tariff and other factors support the price, but the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed puts pressure on the price [6]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9460 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the previous day; the national average price was 9418 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 599,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,600 tons [8]. - **Analysis**: The export data in the first 15 days of this month is good, which boosts the market to reach a new high. The trend is still mainly to go long on dips [8]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou cotton decreased by 0.25% to 14,120 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.01% to 15,222 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Situation**: The excellent and good rate of US cotton decreased by 2% to 53% week - on - week, and the non - drought rate in the US cotton area has recovered to 82%. The newly sown cotton area in India is 3.13 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 7% [10]. - **Domestic Situation**: The new cotton in Xinjiang has mostly entered the boll - opening stage, and the output is expected to increase to over 7.4 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory has decreased by 150,600 tons to 1.8561 million tons [11]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2601 increased by 0.74% to 11,545 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production Area Situation**: The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. It is estimated that the new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years [14]. - **Inventory Situation**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points is 9686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 98 tons [13]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 0.18% to 13,945 yuan/ton, and the domestic live pig spot price remained stable at 14,340 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply Situation**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increased by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 continued to increase, and the slaughter volume in the second half of the year is expected to increase [17]. - **Demand Situation**: It is currently the consumption off - season, and the demand in scenarios such as schools has weakened [17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - For silicon manganese, the fundamentals are becoming looser, but short - term demand resilience remains due to a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory shows a downward trend but remains at a high level. With the market sentiment cooling but still lingering, short - selling or waiting and seeing is advisable, with the main contract reference range at [5954, 6274] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the fundamentals are also becoming looser. The enterprise inventory has decreased slightly but is still high, and the overall supply pressure is obvious. Short - selling or waiting and seeing is recommended, with the main contract reference range at [5754, 6112] [52][53] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply - The national silicon manganese production has been rising for thirteen consecutive weeks. As of August 15, the total national production was 207,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,235 tons, and the operating rate was 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32%. Northern production areas have stable operations, while southern areas like Guangxi and Guizhou have minor restarts, and Yunnan's operating rate has reached 88.21% [4][12] Demand - As of August 15, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 125,382 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the weekly output of rebar was 220,450 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 million tons. The 8 - month silicon manganese tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,200 yuan/ton, a 350 - yuan/ton increase from July, and the procurement volume was 16,100 tons, a 1,500 - ton increase from July [4][17][20] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 74,797, a decrease of 1,248 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 382,200 tons, with a slower decline rate [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports were relatively stable this week. The shipment volume continued to decline, while the arrival and port clearance volumes increased significantly compared to the previous period. Coke's sixth price increase has been implemented, but the chemical coke price in the production area has not followed up this week. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were 5,853 and 6,430 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 53 and - 530 yuan/ton respectively [4][26] Silicon Iron Supply - As of August 15, the weekly production of silicon iron was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,700 tons, and the operating rate was 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86%. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia had relatively stable operations, and Shaanxi had a minor restart [52][59] Demand - As of August 8, the weekly demand for silicon iron was 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 tons. In August, a new round of demand was being released, and most steel mills' procurement volume and price increased. The 8 - month silicon iron tender price of a landmark steel mill was 6,030 yuan/ton, a 430 - yuan/ton increase from the previous month, and the procurement quantity was 2,835 tons, a 135 - ton increase from the previous month. The domestic magnesium market was stable and slightly stronger this week [52][63][65] Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 65,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,600 tons; the number of warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 from last Friday; the delivery inventory (including forecasts) was 108,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons from last Friday [52] Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently, and the semi - coke price in some areas has increased slightly. The electricity price in Gansu has dropped to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and in Qinghai, it has increased to 0.375 yuan/kWh. The production costs in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia were 5,499 and 5,352 yuan/ton respectively, with production profits of - 49 and 148 yuan/ton respectively [52][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic sentiment is warming, market risk appetite is rising, and there is potential for macro - micro resonance. Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards with a higher center of gravity. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long - term, copper is bullish due to its status as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, tight copper concentrate supply, and the booming green copper demand. The focus range for SHFE copper is [78,000, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,650, 9,950] US dollars/ton [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The core view is that with warming macro sentiment and rising market risk appetite, there may be macro - micro resonance, and copper prices will rise with a higher center of gravity. It is advisable to try long positions on dips. The strategy outlook is that although US PPI exceeds expectations and weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. The short - term A - share slow - bull market and commodity anti - involution restlessness in China have increased market risk appetite. Fundamentally, overseas copper mine disruptions coexist with high domestic refined copper production, and the expectation of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is fermenting, with tight domestic social inventories supporting copper prices. In the long - term, copper is promising. The operation strategy is to try long positions on dips [6]. 2. Macroeconomic - **Policy Boosting Consumption**: Three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Service Industry Business Entities' Loans". The central bank and other four departments explained these two interest - subsidy policies, which will form a "combination punch" with other policies. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [8]. - **Sino - US Trade Relations**: The Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks issued a joint statement, suspending 24% tariffs for another 90 days. However, the US Congress passed the "2025 Sanctions Against Russia Act", and there are concerns about Sino - US trade relations [9]. - **US Economic Data**: US July PPI data exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity in September. There are differences within the Fed on the rate - cut rhythm. The US dollar index rebounded, and commodities were slightly pressured [10][12]. - **China's Macroeconomic Data**: From January to July, China's industrial added value, manufacturing investment, and social consumption showed different trends. In July, social financing performed well, but credit performance was average [15]. - **US Copper Industry Dilemma**: The US has a high dependence on copper imports. Trump plans to reduce the import dependence from 45% to 30% by 2035. The short - term impact of US copper tariff policies on China's copper product exports is limited [19]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Price Performance**: SHFE copper is stronger than overseas copper. The COMEX - LME copper price spread has returned to the normal historical range. LME copper has a negative basis, and domestic electrolytic copper spot has a positive basis [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: There have been disruptions in copper concentrate supply overseas, but the domestic supply situation has improved marginally. The copper concentrate TC has increased [40]. - **Crude Copper and Scrap Copper Market**: The supply of crude copper and scrap copper is tight, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has converged, with a weak scrap copper substitution effect [45]. - **Refined Copper Supply and Demand**: The supply of smelters has high elasticity, and the refined copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year. The production of electrolytic copper may decline in the future due to increased smelter maintenance [50]. - **Downstream Demand**: Currently in the traditional consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises' operation rate is weak. However, terminal power and new - energy vehicle demand show resilience [55][60]. - **Inventory Situation**: Overseas copper inventory accumulation has slowed down, while domestic copper social inventory is tight, at a historically low level [70]. - **Speculative Positions**: Speculative net long positions have declined, and the net capital of SHFE copper positions has flowed out [79]. 4. Summary and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks and US CPI data initially boosted market confidence, but the US July PPI exceeded expectations, weakening the Fed's rate - cut intensity and pressuring copper prices. China's July social financing was good, but credit was average. The short - term A - share slow - bull market has increased market risk appetite [81]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: Copper concentrate supply has improved marginally, but refined copper production may decline in the future. Currently in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up in the peak season. Overseas inventory accumulation has slowed, and domestic inventory is tight, with power and automotive demand performing well, and the annual copper supply - demand in a tight balance [81]. - **Overall Strategy**: Although the US PPI weakens the Fed's rate - cut intensity, the Fed's rate - cut path in September is almost certain. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and enterprises should wait for high - level opportunities for selling hedging. In the long - term, copper is bullish [82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate main contract maintains high - level operation under the expectation of supply contraction, and is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to continue holding previous long positions [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In July in China, the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, and new RMB deposits were 50 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 111 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 3.2 percentage points, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared with last month. There are consumption subsidies and loan interest subsidies. In the US, the CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the US - Russia leaders will meet to discuss the cease - fire in Ukraine [3] Supply Side - This week, the lithium carbonate output decreased slightly week - on - week but remained above 20,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate of contract - processing enterprises increased, new production lines continued to ramp up, and recycling enterprises had production plans [3] Demand Side - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 262,000 units, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million units, a 28% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new - energy vehicle manufacturers was 229,000 units, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 2% month - on - month decrease, with a penetration rate of 56.8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 7.862 million units, a 35% year - on - year increase [3] Cost and Profit - This week, the ore prices increased week - on - week. The African SC 5% was quoted at $640/ton, up $110/ton; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $988/ton, up $248/ton; the lithium mica market price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate production cost was 69,497 yuan/ton, up 6,341 yuan, and the industry profit was 12,456 yuan/ton, up 6,477 yuan [4] Total Inventory - As of August 14, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons, down 162 tons from last week, with upstream smelter inventory at 49,693 tons, down 1,306 tons [4] Market Review - As of August 15, LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 13% from last week. The spot battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,000 yuan/ton, up 17% from last week, with the basis discount widening. The main - contract position was 400,000. The main contract fluctuated greatly this week, supported by supply - tight expectations [7] Production of Related Products - Lithium carbonate production on August 15 was 20,093 tons, down 265 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 46.97%, down 0.34% [9] - Lithium hydroxide production on August 15 was 4,710 tons, down 395 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 32.42%, down 2.72% [11] - Lithium iron phosphate production on August 15 was 70,257 tons, up 573 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 61.92%, up 0.62% [14] Inventory of Related Products - As of August 14, the total lithium carbonate industry inventory was 142,256 tons, down 162 tons from last week, with warehouse - receipt inventory at 23,485 tons, up 4,656 tons [32] - As of August 15, the total lithium iron phosphate industry inventory was 43,765 tons, up 1,500 tons from last week [35] Cost - end - As of August 15, the African SC 5% was quoted at $640/ton, up $110/ton; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF was $988/ton, up $248/ton; the lithium mica market price was 2,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [47] Profit of Related Products - As of August 15, the lithium carbonate production cost was 69,497 yuan/ton, up 6,341 yuan, and the industry profit was 12,456 yuan/ton, up 6,477 yuan [49] - As of August 15, the lithium hydroxide production cost was 66,160 yuan/ton, up 3,950 yuan, and the industry profit was 3,635 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [51] - As of August 15, the lithium iron phosphate production cost was 35,986 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan, with a loss of 907 yuan/ton, a reduction of 86 yuan from last week [53]

中辉期货钢材周报 "反内卷"有所降温 中期关注产业逻辑 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/8/15 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色先涨后跌，焦煤在到达前高后快速回落，带动黑色板块下行。交易所对焦煤01合约 设置交易限额，并提高日内投机手续费，为市场降温意图明显。钢材供需方面，钢厂利润仍然较佳，生产积极 性较高，铁水产量继续维持在240万吨以上，但后期存在阅兵限产影响，唐山独立轧钢厂自8月20日起或因环 保停产。另外高炉也存在限产减产可能，后期产量存在收缩预期。需求端淡季特征比较明显，五大材表需环比 进一步回落，建筑钢材回落幅度较大。库存整体上升，尤其建筑钢材增加较多。 【策略建议】：从近期官方表态及监管措施来看，有为"反内卷"氛围下原料涨价降温的态势。目前黑色系的焦 点在焦煤，其供需矛盾并不像价格表现的那般剧烈。焦煤产量缓慢回升，蒙煤通关量也在增加，供应端边际改 善。需求端铁水产量较稳定，而前期钢厂和焦企补库后，近期采购节奏有所放缓，矿山焦煤库存转 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Rebar, Hot-rolled Coil, Coke, Coking Coal, Silicomanganese [1] - **Short-term Bullish Participation**: Iron Ore [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: High iron - water production due to good profits, weak demand, supply - side contraction expectations from un - implemented parade - related production restrictions, and raw material disturbances lead to expected mid - term range fluctuations [1][4]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Production and apparent consumption decline, inventory slightly increases, export profit drops, and production restrictions during the parade support the market [1][4]. - **Iron Ore**: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories, and restocking by steel mills make the ore price firm [1][8]. - **Coke**: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction from parade - related production restrictions, mid - term strength supported by news, but short - term possible correction due to high position and trading restrictions [1][11]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment may be affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - **Silicomanganese**: No prominent supply - demand contradiction, increased enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the alloy price [1][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Weaker fundamentals, increased factory inventory, and high delivery inventory. The price may face correction pressure in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term [1][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Market Characteristics**: Obvious off - season features, range fluctuations [3]. - **Rebar**: High - level iron - water production, weak demand, mid - term range fluctuations, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Stable fundamentals, reduced export profit, short - term volatile market [1][4][5]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil show different degrees of decline, and there are corresponding changes in basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: Steel mills' restocking makes the ore price firm [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Slight increase in iron - water production, decrease in foreign ore arrivals and shipments, increase in port and steel mill inventories [1][8]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices of iron ore decline, and there are changes in spreads, basis, and other indicators [6]. 3.3 Coke - **Market Situation**: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Six rounds of spot price increases, improved coking enterprise profits, possible supply contraction, relatively balanced supply - demand, and stable production and inventory [1][11]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices have mixed changes, and there are corresponding changes in basis, spreads, and other data [10]. 3.4 Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: Policy disturbances, short - term possible fluctuations [13]. - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, stable raw material demand, mid - term strength supported by production restriction news, but short - term market sentiment affected by trading restrictions [1][14]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices remain stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other indicators [13]. 3.5 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Situation**: No fundamental drivers, follow market sentiment [16]. - **Silicomanganese**: Improved enterprise operating rate, concentrated demand release, and firm port ore prices support the price [1][17]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Increased factory inventory, high delivery inventory, short - term correction pressure, and medium - term price under pressure [1][18]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices decline, spot prices are relatively stable, and there are changes in basis, spreads, and other data [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1][5] - LPG: Hold long positions [1] - L: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PP: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Consolidating on the short - side, consider buying on dips [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Supply surplus pressure is rising, and the support from the peak season is weakening. OPEC+ production increase exerts downward pressure. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday. Consider buying put options [1][5]. - **LPG**: High basis and improved fundamentals lead to a short - term rebound. Hold long positions [1]. - **L**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, consider buying on dips [1]. - **PP**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. Although the downstream demand recovers slowly, the technical bottom provides support. Consider buying on dips [1]. - **PVC**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [1]. - **PX**: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still relatively high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [1]. - **PTA**: The spot processing fee is weakening, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is in the off - season. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [1]. - **MEG**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [2]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [2]. - **Urea**: The production is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [2]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Propylene**: The PDH cost support is weakening, but the supply pressure may ease marginally. The downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 0.61%, Brent rose 1.84%, and SC fell 0.88% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The support from the peak season is declining, and the OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure. The oil price still has room to decline, and it may fall to around $60 in the medium - to - long term. Focus on the US - Russia talks on Friday [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The demand is expected to grow, but the inventory in the US increased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying put options. Focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 14, the PG main contract closed at 3,832 yuan/ton, a 0.26% increase. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,420 ( - 10), 4,401 ( + 0), and 4,365 ( + 5) yuan/ton respectively [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is weak, but the fundamentals are good. The basis is high, and the supply and inventory are both decreasing. The short - term rebound is expected [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions. Focus on the range of [3,850 - 3,950] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,285 yuan/ton, and the North China Ningmei price was 7,290 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day) [15]. - **Industry News**: The polyethylene market was strong this week. Although the supply was high, the pressure is expected to ease with more maintenance. The demand is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Basic Logic**: The main contract is changing, and the spot price is stable. The basis is strengthening. With the approaching of the agricultural film peak season, the fundamentals are expected to improve. Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,450] for L [17]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 closed at 7,085 yuan/ton, and the East China drawn wire spot price was 7,056 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry News**: The polypropylene spot price was slightly adjusted this week. The upstream raw materials are expected to be favorable, but the supply - demand fundamentals have limited driving force [23]. - **Basic Logic**: The spot price is slightly falling, and the 09 basis is strengthening. The upstream maintenance is high, and the downstream demand recovers slowly. Consider buying on dips [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [7,050 - 7,200] for PP [24]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2509 closed at 4,970 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts increased by 3,239 lots [29]. - **Industry News**: There was no new enterprise maintenance this week. The supply - demand contradiction persists, and the inventory is accumulating. The spot price is expected to be stable [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 consecutive weeks, and the warehouse receipts are increasing significantly. Wait for a rebound to go short [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a rebound to go short. Focus on the range of [4,900 - 5,100] for V [31]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PX spot price in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,726 ( - 30) yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side changes are limited, and the demand - side PTA processing fee is low with increased maintenance. The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and the inventory is still high. The oil price is oscillating weakly. Consider taking profit on short positions and put options, and look for opportunities to sell call options [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions and put options. Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [6,600 - 6,720] for PX [37]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 8, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,670 ( - 15) yuan/ton, and the TA09 closed at 4,684 ( - 4) yuan/ton [39]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply - side maintenance is increasing. The demand is in the off - season. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the cost support is weakening. Consider taking profit on short positions, buying put options, and look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on short positions gradually, buy put options, and pay close attention to the US - Russia Alaska talks. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for TA. Focus on the range of [4,660 - 4,730] for TA [41]. MEG - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China ethylene glycol spot price was 4,456 ( - 19) yuan/ton, and the EG09 closed at 4,384 ( - 12) yuan/ton [43]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic production is slightly increasing, but the arrival and import are lower than the same period. The downstream is in the off - season. The 8 - month supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is relatively low. Consider looking for opportunities to sell call options [44]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to sell call options. Focus on the range of [4,350 - 4,390] for EG [45]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 8, the East China methanol spot price was 2,393 ( - 3) yuan/ton, and the methanol main 09 contract closed at 2,383 ( - 5) yuan/ton [46]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and the overseas methanol devices are operating at a high load. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The social inventory is accumulating. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions, looking for low - buying opportunities for 01, and taking profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads [47]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions gradually. The downside space for 01 may be limited. Look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse spreads in batches. Focus on the range of [2,420 - 2,460] for MA [48]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 8, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,760 ( - 20) yuan/ton, and the urea main contract closed at 1,728 ( - 9) yuan/ton [50]. - **Basic Logic**: The urea device operating load is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. The domestic industrial and agricultural demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. The cost support exists. Consider taking profit on 09 short positions and looking for low - buying opportunities for 01 [51]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on 09 short positions. Pay attention to the small peak of autumn fertilizer use for urea and look for low - buying opportunities for 01. Focus on the range of [1,725 - 1,755] for UR [52]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for asphalt. - **Basic Logic**: The short - term oil price has stabilized but still has room to decline. The raw material supply is sufficient, and the supply is increasing while the demand is decreasing. The valuation is high. Consider shorting with a light position [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. Propylene - **Market Review**: No specific market review content provided for propylene. - **Basic Logic**: The Shandong spot price decreased slightly, and the East China spot price increased. The 8 - month propane CP price decreased rapidly, weakening the PDH cost support. The supply pressure may ease marginally, and the downstream is entering the peak season. Consider buying on dips [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The absolute price is low. Consider buying on dips.