1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment of both stock and bond bulls has declined. Stock index futures are releasing capital congestion, stock index option selling strategies need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the treasury bond market has weakened [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Capital congestion is being released. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated lower on Thursday with slightly increased trading volume. Over 4,600 stocks in the entire market closed lower. Only the petroleum and petrochemical sectors among the primary industries closed higher. Market sentiment declined, the number of stocks hitting the daily limit increased, and there was a gap in the 4 - board stocks in the consecutive - limit ladder. High - beta styles retreated more significantly. The positions of IM increased by 14,500 lots compared to the previous day. There is no clear main line in the small - cap stocks in the future, so the operation should continue to be defensive [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [7] Stock Index Options - **View**: Selling options still need to wait and see, waiting for the inflection point of volatility decline. Due to the deeper adjustment of the underlying assets, the liquidity of the option market improved yesterday. Volatility continued to rise. Although the 500ETF options and MO are still at a relatively low percentile, considering that volatility may be in an upward range, the selling option strategy still needs to wait and see. The sentiment indicators show that the willingness to buy options to bottom - fish increased in a falling environment. Therefore, it is recommended to take profit on the long - volatility strategy intraday and use a light - position bullish spread strategy to bet on a short - term technical rebound [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Dual - buying on the main line, light - position bullish spread [7] Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market declined. Treasury bond futures mostly closed lower yesterday. For spot bonds, the yields of medium - and short - term treasury bonds mostly increased, while the yields of ultra - long - term treasury bonds decreased, and the yield curve flattened. The central bank's net injection of 84.2 billion yuan through open - market operations had a negative impact on the short - end as the inter - bank funding rates mostly increased slightly. The conflict between Israel and Iran and the Fed's hawkish stance reduced risk appetite, which was beneficial to the long - end of bonds. In the future, the central bank's care for the funding side and large banks' continuous buying of short - term bonds are beneficial to the short - end, while the 10 - year treasury bond yield has dropped to around the previous low of 1.6%, and there may be insufficient momentum for further significant decline in the short term. Attention should be paid to the steepening of the yield curve [2][8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: For the trend strategy, maintain caution; for the hedging strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels; for the basis strategy, pay appropriate attention to the widening of the basis; for the curve strategy, the odds of steepening the curve in the medium term are higher [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data on fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, unemployment rate, etc. in China, as well as data on manufacturing indices, retail sales, CPI, and unemployment claims in the United States and the eurozone [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first batch of projects using the risk - sharing tool for science and technology innovation bonds have been officially launched, which can enhance the bond - financing availability and convenience of relevant enterprises and institutions and initially connect the "equity - bond - loan" linkage [11] - During the period from May 16 to June 18, the consumption of home appliances and 3C products with trade - in services at Suning易购 was booming, with significant increases in store traffic, trade - in orders, and high - end product sales [11] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, maintained the IOR at 4.40%, the discount rate at 4.50%, and the pace of quantitative tightening unchanged [12] - The Bank of England kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.25% [13] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report also includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data summaries are not provided in the given text [14][18][30]

Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] - Specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are all rated as "oscillation" [8][9][11][13][14][16][18] Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro factors have limited impact on the black sector currently. The demand for hot - rolled coils is recovering, while the demand for rebar is seasonally declining. The supply of molten iron is rising from a high level. The overall supply and demand are both strengthening month - on - month, and there is no inventory pressure for now. However, the market's outlook for the future remains pessimistic, worried about the weakening of plate demand, and the resilience of exports needs to be observed. Overall, the driving force is limited [1][2] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is judged that the ore price will oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of further decline in production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses for coke enterprises. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material restocking is not high, and the upstream inventory level of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, with no obvious improvement in the inventory structure. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream de - stocking pressure of coking coal remains high. In the short term, the price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3] Alloys - The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. On the supply side, some factories have plans to resume production, and a factory in Inner Mongolia has a new production capacity launch plan in the second half of the month. Silicomanganese production is expected to continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the sentiment in the manganese ore market has improved. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate. Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and the price lacks upward momentum [3][6] Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand is continuing to weaken month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price is falling, and the production and sales are still weak. On the supply side, one production line is planned to be shut down for water - cooling maintenance due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and the mid - stream inventory has continued to decline, with repeated mood swings. Attention should be paid to the price cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. The maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [6][14] Steel - The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and the overseas war situation is undetermined. The rise in oil prices has driven the sentiment in the commodity market to improve, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. On the demand side, the demand for the five major steel products has recovered month - on - month this week, with a significant month - on - month increase in the demand for hot - rolled coils and a month - on - month decrease in the demand for rebar. On the supply side, molten iron production is oscillating at a high level, and steel production has increased slightly this week, mainly due to the increase in rebar and wire rod production. This week, the overall supply and demand have both strengthened month - on - month, but the inventory is still decreasing. The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and the futures price is mainly suppressed by the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether domestic demand can continue to maintain inventory reduction. In the short term, steel prices are expected to oscillate [8] Iron Ore - The spot market quotation rose by 0 - 2 yuan/ton yesterday, and port transactions decreased slightly. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mines are starting to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are rising and are expected to remain high in the short term. Last week, the arrival volume decreased, leading to a slight decline in inventory. Steel enterprises' restocking increased the port clearance, resulting in a small decrease in port inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory build - up for ores, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Recently, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel enterprises on the demand side and their maintenance plans. The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The overall contradiction is not obvious. It is judged that the possibility of a significant decline is small, and the ore price is expected to oscillate [8] Scrap Steel - As the building material off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has declined again, but the month - on - month decline has narrowed. The market's expectation of off - season demand is pessimistic and difficult to reverse in the short term, putting pressure on the futures price. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume increased slightly this week. Due to the low base in the same period last year, the overall arrival volume is slightly higher year - on - year. On the demand side, recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure and declining, while the decline of scrap steel is relatively small. Electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours, and the daily consumption has decreased slightly. The molten iron production of blast furnaces has increased slightly, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has also increased. In terms of inventory, although the arrival volume increased slightly, the daily consumption increased, and the factory inventory still decreased, with the absolute level at a high level in the same period. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, the price of finished products is under pressure, and electric arc furnaces are losing money during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9] Coke - The supply - demand pattern of coke is slightly loose, and the fourth round of price cuts is expected to start this week. The spot quotation is mainly weakly stable. On the supply side, some coke enterprises have reduced their production levels due to environmental protection, shipment, and loss pressure, and the overall coke production has decreased. However, in the off - season, downstream steel mills have sufficient raw material inventory and low enthusiasm for restocking, so the inventory reduction pressure on coke enterprises still exists. On the demand side, molten iron production is still at a relatively high level, but the terminal steel demand has entered the off - season, and there is an expectation of a decline in molten iron production in the future. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the support of demand for the coke price. Overall, the inventory of coke enterprises needs to be digested, the demand support is weakening, and the upward space for the coke price is limited. The coking coal price is under pressure, the cost support for coke is limited, and the downstream rigid demand tends to decline. The coke price still has downward pressure [9][11] Coking Coal - After the coking coal price dropped to a low level, the recent market trading situation has improved, but the release of downstream restocking demand is limited, and the intermediate links are still mainly in a wait - and - see state. On the supply side, affected by factors such as environmental inspections and underground problems, the number of recently shut - down coal mines has increased, and coking coal production has declined. However, the contraction amplitude of the overall market supply is relatively limited. On the demand side, coke production has declined from a high level, and coke enterprises are expected to further reduce their production under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses. In terms of inventory, during the price cut cycle, the raw material restocking intensity of coke enterprises is average, the upstream inventory of coking coal is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved. Overall, the contraction amplitude of the current supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the de - stocking pressure on mines still exists. The coking coal price lacks a driving force for a trending increase. The market's supply - demand loose pattern has not been reversed, and the high upstream inventory suppresses the increase of the coking coal price [13] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, for some manganese ore types such as Gabon lumps and Australian lumps, the circulating resources are in short supply, and the arrival cost is inverted. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, the market inquiry activity has increased, and it is more difficult for downstream buyers to bargain. The transaction price has increased by about 0.5 yuan/ton - degree. On the supply side, there are few operating factories in Guizhou. In Yunnan, the electricity cost will drop to about 0.37 yuan in July, and some factories have plans to resume production. In Guilin, Guangxi, the incremental electricity cost will be suspended at the end of the month, and some factories are expected to shut down for maintenance. A new alloy submerged arc furnace has been ignited in Inner Mongolia, with a daily production of about 200 tons. There are still situations of resuming production and adding new production capacity in the north. Constrained by the cost inversion, manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices. On the demand side, the black market has entered the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and downstream buyers have a strong mentality of pressing prices. The silicomanganese pricing of HBIS Group in June is 5,650 yuan/ton, and the first - round inquiry price is 5,500 yuan/ton. The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose. However, factories are facing cost inversion and have a strong willingness to support prices. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [16] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market showed strong performance. On the cost side, the semi - coke market is stable. In Shenmu, the price of small - sized semi - coke is about 575 - 610 yuan/ton. On the supply side, manufacturers' profits are not good, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices. On the demand side, steel tenders have increased centralized procurement. The tender quantity of HBIS Group for ferrosilicon in June is 2,200 tons, and the tender price is 5,500 yuan/ton. Affected by the rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream's willingness to actively reduce inventory is strong, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The magnesium metal market is driven by short - term market transactions, and the price is running strongly. The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, manufacturers have a strong willingness to support prices, but some manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production, and the supply - demand gap tends to be filled. The upward space for the futures market is limited. In the future, attention should be paid to steel tender situations and production situations. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Qatar is rich in oil and natural gas resources, with proven oil reserves of 2.6 billion tons and proven natural gas reserves of 177.7 billion tons, ranking 14th and 3rd in the world respectively [1][10]. - The oil and gas industry is the economic pillar of Qatar. The government has launched the "2030 National Vision" to develop economic diversification and build Qatar into a sustainable, competitive, and high - living - standard country by 2030 [2][10]. - In 2024, Qatar's LNG export volume was about 80 million tons, making it the world's third - largest LNG exporter [1][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Qatar National Overview 1.1 Location - Qatar is located on the Qatar Peninsula on the south - west coast of the Persian Gulf, bordering Saudi Arabia to the south. It has an area of 11,521 square kilometers, a coastline of 563 kilometers, a tropical desert climate, and an average annual precipitation of only 75.2 mm [8]. 1.2 Economic Overview - Qatar has a population of 3.05 million, with Qatari citizens accounting for about 15%. Its main export products are oil, LNG, and condensate, and main imports are machinery, transport equipment, food, and industrial raw materials. Major trading partners include the US, Japan, and Western European countries [10][11]. - In 2024, Qatar's GDP was $195.72 billion, per - capita GDP was $71,600, and total foreign trade volume was $114.8 billion [10][11]. 1.3 Historical and Political Situation - Qatar was part of the Arab Empire in the 7th century, became independent in 1971 as a hereditary monarchy. The Emir is the head of state and military commander - in - chief, and the Consultative Assembly has the power to review legislation and give policy suggestions [12]. - Qatar pursues an active and pragmatic foreign policy, has established diplomatic relations with over 130 countries, and is a dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It withdrew from OPEC in 2019 [13]. 2. Oil and Other Liquids - As of January 1, 2023, Qatar's crude oil reserves were estimated at 25.2 billion barrels, ranking 6th in the Middle East and 14th in the world. In 2021, its crude oil and Lease condensate production ranked 14th globally [14]. - Total oil and other liquid production decreased from over 2 million barrels per day in 2012 to less than 1.9 million barrels per day in 2022. Crude oil production decreased from 852,000 barrels per day in 2008 to 616,000 barrels per day in 2022 [14]. - Qatar Energy is using enhanced oil recovery technology to maintain production capacity. The Al - Shaheen oilfield increased production by about 60,000 barrels per day from 2020 - 2022 [14]. - Non - crude liquid production is increasing. The North Field expansion project is expected to increase condensate production by about 380,000 barrels per day and ethane and other LPG by about 300,000 barrels per day by 2027 [15]. 3. Natural Gas - As of December 2022, Qatar's proven natural gas reserves were about 843 Tcf, ranking 3rd in the world, mainly in the North Field [17]. - Qatar is an important global LNG exporter. Gas production growth slowed after 2013 due to mature fields and lack of major projects [17]. - Two large - scale natural gas production and liquefaction projects are under development, with a total capacity of 230.5 billion cubic feet per year, starting in 2025 and 2027 respectively [18][20]. 4. Electricity - In 2021, Qatar's power generation installed capacity was 10.6 GW, a 36% increase from 2010, and net power generation increased by 80% [24]. - Electricity consumption has been rising in the past decade. In 2022, the first utility - scale solar power project was installed, and more solar projects are planned to replace part of natural gas power generation [24]. - Qatar plans to increase solar power installed capacity to 5 GW by 2035 and reduce 11 million tons of CO2 emissions per year through CCS technology by 2035 [24]. 5. Energy Trade 5.1 Oil and Other Liquids - Qatar does not import crude oil or condensate, only occasionally imports petroleum products. Its crude oil and condensate exports have been stable at about 800,000 barrels per day since 2017, mainly to Asia [27]. - In 2022, Qatar's petroleum product exports were about 670,000 barrels per day, mainly to Asia, with LPG and naphtha being the main export products [27]. 5.2 Natural Gas - In 2021, Qatar was the world's third - largest natural gas exporter and second - largest LNG exporter. Most of its gas is exported as LNG to Asia and Europe, with a small amount to the UAE and Oman via the Dolphin Pipeline [32]. - In 2022, Qatar signed long - term LNG supply agreements with China and Germany [32]. 5.3 Electricity - As a member of the GCC Interconnection Authority, Qatar conducts a small amount of electricity trade through the regional market, with a transmission line capacity of 750 MW connecting Doha to the main line [35].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | 沪深300期货 | 3872.2 | 0.09% | 0.41% | 1.30% | 0.74% | -1.24% | 航运 贵金属 | 集运欧线 | 2092 | 2.65% | 1.16% | 0.80% | 40.31% | -7.31% | | | 上证50期货 | 2677.4 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy has limited short - term impact on the market. For stock index futures, the Lujiazui Forum focuses on new stocks on the Sci - tech Innovation Board, and policies are difficult to accelerate the recovery. For stock index options, the market is resilient, and short - term sentiment is positive. For treasury bond futures, the bond market shows a differentiated trend [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The Lujiazui Forum introduced "1 + 6" policy measures to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board, which may lower the listing threshold for high - quality enterprises, accelerate the listing process, and increase the number of new stocks. However, the expected policy tools in the order of tens of billions did not appear, and there is no substantial policy to improve industrial profit distribution. The market lacks a clear long - term main line, and operations should be defensive. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' basis, spreads, and positions changed. It is recommended to wait and see [2][7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Most underlying assets showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The overall trading volume of the option market increased slightly, with the main increase in 500ETF options and 300 - related varieties. Most varieties had a slight increase in volatility. The buying option strategy performed well in the morning. Sentiment indicators suggest that both buyers and sellers are short - term optimistic. It is recommended to deploy long - volatility strategies and short - term bullish spread strategies on dips, and be cautious with short - volatility strategies [3][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. The central bank's open - market operations slightly withdrew liquidity, but the DR001 rate remained low, and the short - end was favored. The expected loose monetary policy did not materialize, which was negative for the bond market. The central bank still cares about the capital market, and large banks are continuously buying short - term bonds, which is beneficial for the short - end. The long - end 10Y treasury bond rate is close to the previous low, and there may be limited downward momentum in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious in trend strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, appropriately focus on basis widening, and the mid - term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [4][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar shows data on fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail sales, industrial added value, unemployment rates, and other indicators in China, the United States, the eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025, including previous values, predicted values, and published values [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Wu Qing announced to deepen the reform of the Sci - tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to build a more attractive and competitive market system. People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced pilot structural monetary policy tool innovations in Shanghai [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not provided in the given content.

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "strong", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weak" [271]. Group 2: Core Views - The conflict between Israel and Iran remains undetermined, which may lead to the US joining the attack on Iran. The crude oil market is in a volatile situation, and the price increase on the 17th was accompanied by a rise in the monthly spread and a strong diesel crack spread. The chemical industry was driven by the rise in crude oil prices on the 18th, but there were also signs of negative feedback as downstream and terminal products did not follow the price increase strongly. The overall outlook for the energy and chemical sector is a strong - oscillating pattern with a focus on long - short configurations [2][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - On June 18, the SC2508 contract closed at 552.7 yuan/barrel, up 5.3%, and the Brent2508 contract closed at 76.08 US dollars/barrel, down 1.44%. EIA data showed a significant drawdown in US crude oil inventories last week, but a slight build - up in gasoline and diesel inventories. The refinery utilization rate decreased slightly. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are driving oil price fluctuations. The oil price is expected to oscillate in a high - risk stage [7]. LPG - The cost - side support has increased, and PG has rebounded following crude oil [4]. Asphalt - Due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation, asphalt has a geopolitical premium. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - With the escalation of the geopolitical situation, high - sulfur fuel oil has a geopolitical premium. Overall, the supply is expected to increase and the demand to decrease, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [9][10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened following crude oil. It is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its valuation is low. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations [11]. Methanol - On June 18, the methanol futures price oscillated strongly. The situation in Iran provides short - term support. In 2024, China imported about 8 million tons of methanol from Iran, accounting for 60% of the total imports and about 8% of the total apparent consumption. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [19]. Urea - On June 18, the urea futures price closed at 1789 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. High supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not fully started. The industrial demand is weakening. Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the overseas urea price has risen sharply, driving up the domestic price. It is expected that the urea futures price will oscillate strongly [20]. Ethylene Glycol - On June 18, the price of ethylene glycol increased. The inventory is low, and the cost has increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. The upward movement is driven by crude oil, and it is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [15]. PX - On June 18, the CFR price of PX in Taiwan, China was 888.4 US dollars/ton. The supply and demand support has weakened, and the short - term trend depends on crude oil. Stimulated by the news of production cuts, it is short - term strong [12]. PTA - On June 18, the PTA spot price was 5205 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to follow crude oil in the short term, and the PTA - crude oil position is mainly compressed [12]. Short - Fiber - The fundamentals of PF are showing marginal improvement signs. The supply pressure has decreased due to production cuts. The processing fee has limited compression space. The export growth rate in 2025 is considerable [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - On June 18, the spot processing fee was compressed to an extremely low value. More production cuts are expected to occur, and it is possible to gradually arrange long positions for the processing fee [18]. PP - On June 18, the PP futures price oscillated strongly. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the supply is increasing. The demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. Plastic - On June 18, the LLDPE futures price oscillated strongly. It is affected by crude oil prices, and its own fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. Styrene - On June 18, the spot price of styrene in East China was 7950 yuan/ton. The rebound driver is not sustainable, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. PVC - The macro - level conflict between Israel and Iran has boosted PVC, but the fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity releases, off - season demand, and weak export expectations. The dynamic cost has increased, and it is expected to oscillate [28]. Caustic Soda - In June, the supply and demand of caustic soda were both weak, and it is expected to be weak in July. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is based on the production cost. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 09 contract [29]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spread - The report provides inter - period spread data for various energy and chemical products, such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc., including the latest values and change values [30]. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - It presents basis and warehouse receipt data for products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [31]. Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spread data, including the latest values and change values, are given for different combinations of products such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. - The outlook for each variety is as follows: - Steel: Oscillation [7] - Iron ore: Oscillation [7] - Scrap steel: Oscillation [8] - Coke: Oscillation [8] - Coking coal: Oscillation [11] - Glass: Oscillation [12] - Soda ash: Oscillation [12] - Silicomanganese: Oscillation [14] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [15] Core Viewpoints - The black building materials market is affected by external disturbances and is in an off - season. The prices of each variety are oscillating. The overall demand is weak, and there is a downward pressure, but the upward driving force is also insufficient [1][2]. - After the positive factors of coking coal are digested, there is no new driving force for the time being. The steel inventory is in a destocking state, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a tight balance. However, the domestic construction and manufacturing industries are in the off - season, and there is not much demand increase. The iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly, and the supply of coking coal and coke has not improved significantly, so the downward pressure is relatively large [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mines start to boost shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. The shipment volume is expected to increase seasonally and may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited [2][7]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production have slightly decreased, but it is expected to remain high in the short term [2][7]. - Inventory: Last week, the arrival volume decreased, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. With the seasonal increase in overseas shipments, the arrival volume will remain high, and there is an expectation of a small - scale phased inventory accumulation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited [2][7]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are seasonally weakening but not exceeding expectations. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that there is little possibility of a significant decline. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. 2. Carbon Element - Supply: Recently, the number of coal mines shut down due to inventory pressure and environmental inspections has increased, and the coking coal production has declined. However, the overall market supply is not tight, and attention should be paid to the contraction amplitude of the supply side in the future [3]. - Demand: The coke production has declined from a high level. Under the pressure of inventory reduction and losses, the coke enterprises' production is expected to further decline [3]. - Inventory: During the price - cut cycle, the coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory is not high. The upstream coking coal inventory is still at a high level in recent years, and the inventory structure problem has not been significantly improved [3]. - Outlook: The contraction amplitude of the supply side is limited, the downstream rigid demand in the off - season tends to decline, and the upstream coking coal inventory reduction pressure remains. The short - term price lacks a driving force for a trending increase [3]. 3. Alloys Silicomanganese - Cost: In the manganese ore market, some ore varieties have a shortage of circulating resources. Traders are not willing to sell at low prices, and the downstream procurement bargaining is more difficult [14]. - Supply: Some factories in Guizhou have few operating enterprises; some factories in Yunnan have plans to resume production; some factories in Guangxi are expected to shut down for maintenance; there are still situations of resuming production and new production capacity in the north. The production is expected to increase [14]. - Demand: The black market is in the off - season, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of pressing prices. The steel tender price is around 5600 yuan/ton, in line with market expectations [14]. - Outlook: The silicomanganese production is expected to increase, the terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, the supply and demand of silicomanganese tend to be loose, and the manganese ore market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The semi - coke market is stable [15]. - Supply: The manufacturers' profits are not good, the overall supply level is still at a low position, and the manufacturers are not willing to sell at low prices [15]. - Demand: Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average. The terminal steel is about to enter the off - season, and the downstream has a strong willingness to reduce inventory. The metal magnesium market demand is weak, and the price is rising weakly [15]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, but individual manufacturers have an expectation of increasing production. The supply - demand gap tends to be filled, and the cost may still have a drag. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [15]. 4. Glass - Demand: The demand in the off - season is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weakening month - on - month, and the off - season pressure still exists. The spot price has declined, and the production and sales are still weak [6]. - Supply: Recently, one production line is planned to be shut down for cold repair due to the expiration of the furnace age, and there are still five production lines waiting to produce glass. The supply - side pressure still exists [6]. - Inventory: The upstream inventory is slightly reduced, and the mid - stream inventory continues to decline, with repeated mood swings [6]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the price - cut amplitude of Hubei manufacturers. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. 5. Soda Ash - Supply: The pattern of oversupply has not changed, the maintenance is gradually resuming, and the supply pressure still exists [6]. - Demand: The heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting of float glass is expected to increase, but the daily melting growth of photovoltaic glass may not be sustainable [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will still decline [6].

信期货 60 50 460 40 440 30 420 20 400 -10 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 美国战略石油库存(百万桶) 美国汽油库存(百万桶) 2022 -2023 2022 -2023 2021 2021 2024 2025 2024 2025 700 260 650 250 600 240 550 230 500 450 220 400 210 350 - 200 300 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国柴油库存(百万桶) 美国航煤库存(百万桶) 2022 2022 2021 -2023 2021 -2023 2024 2024 = 2025 ·2025 170 51 160 48 150 45 140 42 130 39 N 120 36 11 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are all "Oscillation" [6][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. After the policy stance is released at the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no visible main line, so the operation should be defensive, waiting for the release of capital crowding [1][6] - Stock index options: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued to seize potential volatility - rising opportunities [2][7] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The short - end is favorable, while the long - end 10Y treasury bond yield has limited downward momentum, so attention should be paid to the curve steepening [2][7][9] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Views**: The crowding in the Hong Kong stock market has been released. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts and their inter - period spreads have changed, and the positions have also changed [6] - **Logic**: The main lines of new consumption and innovative drugs have corrected, the momentum effect has weakened, and the Hang Seng AH Premium Index has reached a five - year low, which may drag down the A - share market. After the Lujiazui Forum, there will be no clear main line [1][6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see [6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Views**: The volatility is at a low quantile, and the double - buying strategy should be continued [7] - **Logic**: The market liquidity has not improved significantly, the volatility is at a low level, and the sentiment indicators are neutral to optimistic, but the volume is weak, so the direction strategy should be on short - term wait - and - see, and a small - position call - buying can be tried [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt the double - buying strategy [7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Views**: The bond market yield curve shows a bullish steepening. The trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts have changed [7] - **Logic**: The MLF expired, but the inter - bank repurchase rate declined, the funds were loose, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious. The central bank's attitude towards the funds is still supportive, and large banks are buying short - term bonds, but the long - term yield has limited downward momentum [2][7][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Be cautious. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: Steepening the curve in the medium - term has a higher odds [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of China, the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan from June 16 - 20, 2025 are presented, including fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, unemployment rate, CPI, and other indicators [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - "New Fed Wire" Nick Timiraos believes that the Fed may cut interest rates this week if it were not for tariff risks [11] - The Bank of Japan maintains the target interest rate and will reduce the purchase of Japanese government bonds starting from April 2026 [11] - China plans to implement zero - tariff measures for 53 African countries through a new free - trade agreement [12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Bullish [5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn/Starch: Oscillating [7] - Pigs: Oscillating Bearish [8] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [12] - Cotton: Oscillating Bearish [13] - Sugar: Oscillating Bearish [15] - Pulp: Oscillating Bearish [16] - Logs: Oscillating Bearish [19] Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and rubber is oscillating bullishly. The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided. Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals. The spot price increase of corn/starch has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating. The supply and demand of pigs are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level. The synthetic rubber futures are moving horizontally. The pulp market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly. The cotton price is slightly oscillating with weak rebound momentum. The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded. The fluctuation of logs has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **View**: The marginal increase pressure of Malaysian palm oil production has weakened, and the positive impact of EPA has not subsided [5]. - **Logic**: The EPA's biofuel blending obligation proposal is beneficial to the demand expectation of US soybean oil. The US soybean planting progress is good, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. The production increase expectation of Malaysian palm oil in June is limited, and the export expectation is optimistic. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level [5]. - **Outlook**: Driven by positive factors such as the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, and the EPA's biofuel proposal, oils and fats may operate bullishly in the near future, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase and the technical resistance at key levels [5]. 2. Protein Meal - **View**: Multiple factors have boosted the prices of double meals [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the rise in crude oil and the EPA proposal are beneficial to US soybeans. The sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going well, but the excellent - good rate is lower than expected. The freight has increased, and the discount of South American soybeans has risen. Domestically, the strengthening of overseas soybean prices has boosted the domestic soybean meal futures. The basis in East China has rebounded. Although the soybean arrival volume will increase in the next two months, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is not under pressure for the time being, and the market demand is stabilizing [6]. - **Outlook**: The US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating range. The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are likely to rise easily and fall difficultly. Oil mills can actively sell hedging at high prices, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low prices. Unilateral positions can be bought at low prices, and a 9 - 1 positive spread strategy can be adopted [6]. 3. Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price increase of corn has slowed down, and the futures are oscillating [7]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, and the rise has slowed down. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as the low arrival volume at Shandong deep - processing enterprises, the outflow of corn in the Northeast, and the new wheat listing. The demand for corn in the feed and deep - processing industries has changed. In the medium term, the import of grains is tightening, and the inventory reduction expectation for the 24/25 season is established [7]. - **Outlook**: Driven by the expected production - demand gap, the trend is still upward, but attention should be paid to the potential negative impact of the import auction policy [7]. 4. Pigs - **View**: The supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is oscillating at a low level [8]. - **Logic**: After the previous weight reduction and price decline, the reluctance of farmers to sell has fluctuated. The demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, the slaughter weight of pigs is decreasing, and the supply of large pigs is still large. In the long term, the pig production capacity is still at a high level, and the number of newborn piglets has been increasing [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearishly. The near - term contracts are under pressure due to the release of large - pig inventory, and the far - term contracts are affected by the expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [8]. 5. Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is warm, and the futures are oscillating bullishly [10]. - **Logic**: The resurgence of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has boosted the commodity market sentiment. Although natural rubber has no direct relationship with crude oil, it is driven by the strong market sentiment. The supply side is affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has rebounded slightly. The demand side has seen a partial recovery in the start - up of tire enterprises, but the demand expectation is still weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The impact of external events on the futures will continue to dominate, but the duration is unknown. The Ru futures may maintain an oscillating bullish trend in the short term due to the low off - standard basis [10]. 6. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures are moving horizontally [12]. - **Logic**: The geopolitical disturbance in the Middle East has made the international crude oil price temporarily strong, which has driven the BR futures to be bullish. The fundamentals of BR are relatively neutral. The operating rate of private enterprises has declined, but the inventory has increased slightly. The price of butadiene has declined, and the market supply is relatively abundant [12]. - **Outlook**: The geopolitical conflict may last for at least one week, and the emotional disturbance to the futures may continue. Although the downward trend in fundamentals remains unchanged, short - term participation should be cautious, and the futures may operate oscillating bullishly [12]. 7. Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is slightly oscillating, and the rebound momentum is weak [13]. - **Logic**: The 25/26 season's cotton production in China and other major producing countries is expected to increase. The demand side has entered the off - season, and the inventory of textile products has increased. The commercial inventory of cotton has been depleted faster than in previous years, which may support the old - crop contracts, but the upward driving force is not strong [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating in the short term, with a reference range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and oscillating bearishly in the long term [13]. 8. Sugar - **View**: The sugar price has stopped falling and rebounded [15]. - **Logic**: After the continuous decline of the external market driving the domestic market to new lows, the external market has rebounded, and the short - term decline of the domestic market has slowed down. The fundamentals of the sugar market have changed little. The new - season global sugar supply is expected to be loose, but the short - term downward space of sugar prices is limited. The appreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar and the strong crude oil price are beneficial to sugar prices. The domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season has ended, and the sales rate is high, but there is an expectation of concentrated arrival of imported sugar [15]. - **Outlook**: Bearish in the long term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season; the sugar price may rebound for valuation repair in the short term [15]. 9. Pulp - **View**: The market has changed little and remains oscillating bearishly [16]. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have slightly declined, and the supply and demand are still weak. In the short term, the pulp import volume remains high, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium term, the import pressure is still large, and the demand peak season will not start until August [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply is resilient, and the demand remains weak. The pulp futures are expected to operate oscillating bearishly [16]. 10. Logs - **View**: The fluctuation has intensified, and the price has risen and then fallen [19]. - **Logic**: The log futures have risen and then fallen, and the delivery game is intensifying. The spot price center of mainstream ports has risen due to the clearance of old goods. The supply pressure will ease at the end of June or early July, and the demand is in the off - season. The profit of downstream processing plants is recovering, and the market sentiment may lead to price support [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to last until the end of June to early July, and the demand has no obvious improvement expectation. The short - term fundamentals maintain a weak balance. The futures may fluctuate sharply in the short term due to the high virtual - to - real ratio of the delivery game [19].