投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-8-1 ⻩⾦修复性反弹，⽩银延续回落 经历议息会议之夜的利空消息密接轰炸后，⻩⾦⽇内开启修复性反弹， 内盘⻩⾦受到⼈⺠币⾛低的影响，⾛势更为坚挺。美国⼆季度GDP数据超 预期回升，但关税影响下贸易和库存对单季度的影响较⼤，平滑上半年增 速来看，增⻓中枢整体下移的事实客观。后续关税逐渐成为慢变量，关注 其对美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，我们提⽰8⽉下旬的全球央⾏年会更为 重要，关注本周五⾮农数据表现，⻩⾦中⻓期多头趋势并未逆转。 重点资讯： 1）美国上周初请失业金人数为21.8万人，预期22.4万人，前值21. 7万人；四周均值为22.1万人，前值22.45万人；至7月19日当周续请 失业金人数194.6万人，预期195.5万人，前值自195.5万人修正至19 4.6万人。 2）美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比升2.8%，预期升2.7%，前值自升2. 7%修正至升2.8%；环比升0.3%，预期升0.3%，前值升0.2%。美国6月 个人支出环比升0.3%，预期升0.4%，前值自降0.1%修正至持平。 3）美国总统特朗普宣布，美国已与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each metal, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard (expected price movement within 2 - 12 weeks): - **Copper**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern [8][9] - **Alumina**: Expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term [9] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - long term [11][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short term, with potential for an upward movement later [13][15] - **Zinc**: Expected to be volatile and bearish [15][16] - **Lead**: Expected to be in a volatile state [17][20] - **Nickel**: Expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [21][25] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to be range - bound in the short term [26] - **Tin**: Expected to be in a volatile pattern, with potential for increased volatility in August [27][29] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Investors are concerned about weak consumption, causing the non - ferrous metals market to decline under pressure. The 7 - month Politburo meeting was in line with expectations, and potential incremental stimulus policies are yet to be seen. The market's focus has shifted back to weakening consumption. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the Sino - US tariff has been further extended. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the US unexpectedly did not impose additional taxes on refined copper imports, leading to a stronger US dollar index, which exerts pressure on non - ferrous metals. In terms of supply and demand, the supply and demand of base metals are gradually loosening seasonally, and domestic inventories are rising seasonally. In the short - to - medium term, the rapid rise of the US dollar and the expectation of weakening demand will suppress prices, and there is a risk of further decline in the center of gravity of non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to short zinc ingots at high prices and cautiously consider low - buying and short - term long opportunities for aluminum and tin. In the long term, the demand outlook for base metals remains uncertain, and short - selling opportunities at high prices for some varieties with supply - demand surplus or expected surplus can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, causing a significant decline in COMEX copper prices. - **Information Analysis**: The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products starting from August 1. The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged. China's electrolytic copper production in June decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The spot price of electrolytic copper increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, COMEX copper prices dropped significantly, and the C - L spread returned to the historical average. In terms of supply and demand, the copper ore processing fee continued to decline, and the raw material supply was still tight. The demand for copper rods decreased, and the copper inventory increased, weakening the upward momentum of copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply of copper is still restricted, and the inventory is at a low level. However, the demand is marginally weakening, and the US tariff on copper is unfavorable to Shanghai copper prices. Copper is expected to show a volatile pattern [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has declined, and alumina prices are oscillating and falling. - **Information Analysis**: The spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends on July 31. There were some spot basis - point transactions, and an overseas transaction of 30,000 tons of alumina was completed. The alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment and the low warehouse receipts problem dominate the alumina market. Fundamentally, the supply is increasing, and the inventory is rising, but the warehouse receipts are at a very low level. The market price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation before the significant increase in warehouse receipts [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to maintain high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" sentiment and warehouse receipts [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased significantly. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum decreased. The US and the EU are still negotiating trade agreements, and the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the Sino - US tariffs have been extended again, and the Politburo meeting statement is in line with expectations. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a weakening trend. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the spot is at a discount. The off - season inventory accumulation trend may continue [13]. - **Outlook**: The short - term consumption and inventory accumulation rhythm need to be observed, and the price is expected to be range - bound. In the long term, there are concerns about consumption, and a short - selling strategy at high prices is recommended based on the premium/discount and inventory inflection point [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased. The import volume of scrap aluminum in June decreased year - on - year. The Sino - US tariffs have been extended, and the Politburo meeting was in line with expectations [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost of ADC12 is supported by the firm price of scrap aluminum. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. The ADC12 - A00 spread is at a low level, and there is an expectation of an upward movement in the future [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level oscillation, and the market follows electrolytic aluminum. There is room for an upward movement later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has eased, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were different, and the inventory increased. A large - scale lead - zinc smelting project was put into production [15][16]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the "anti - involution" speculation sentiment has cooled down. The supply of zinc ore has become looser, and the smelting profit is good. The demand is in the traditional off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. The fundamentals are in a surplus state [16]. - **Outlook**: In August, the production of zinc ingots will remain high, and the demand is in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile and bearish [16]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: There is still cost support, and the decline space of lead prices is limited. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the price of scrap batteries remained unchanged, the price of lead decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the supply increased. The downstream procurement enthusiasm improved slightly [17]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the premium is stable, and the spread between primary and recycled lead has decreased slightly. The supply of recycled lead is increasing, and the demand is in the transition period from the off - season to the peak season, with the battery factory's operating rate higher than the same period in previous years [20]. - **Outlook**: The macro - situation is fluctuating. The demand is gradually recovering, and the supply may continue to increase slightly. The cost of recycled lead is strongly supported, and lead prices are expected to be in a volatile state [20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The anti - speculation logic has emerged, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly. Many companies in the nickel industry have investment and development plans, and the Indonesian nickel ore association proposed to revise the HPM formula [21][22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The raw material supply may become looser after the rainy season, and the intermediate product output has recovered. The inventory has accumulated significantly, and the upward pressure is significant [25]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and bearish, and a short - position is recommended in the medium - long term [25]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The spot premium in Foshan was positive, and the price of high - nickel pig iron increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium iron are stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The inventory has decreased, and the structural surplus pressure has been relieved [26]. - **Outlook**: The cost has increased recently. Attention should be paid to the possibility of production cuts by steel mills. The demand is limited by the off - season, and the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [26]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply is still tight, and tin prices are oscillating. - **Information Analysis**: On July 31, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Main Logic**: After the mining license is issued, the tin ore production is expected to increase gradually, but the domestic tin ore shortage situation will not change for the time being. The supply of raw materials for smelters is tight, and the operating rate and output are under downward pressure. The terminal demand has weakened marginally [27]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is supported by the tight supply of tin ore. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the volatility may increase in August [29].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-8-1 商品情绪转变较快，胶价跟随大跌 油脂： 美豆产区天气良好，近日油脂或震荡盘整 蛋⽩粕： 中美关税豁免展期90天，市场担忧情绪有所回落 ⽟⽶/淀粉： 深加⼯⻔前到⻋量爬坡，期现承压 ⽣猪： 政策情绪转淡，盘⾯回吐涨幅 橡㬵： 商品情绪转变较快，胶价跟随大跌 合成橡㬵： 宏观影响盘面大幅下挫 纸浆： 纸浆涨跌节奏同步商品总体氛围，回落过程关注套利策略 棉花： 棉价继续下行，仓单流出速度加快 ⽩糖： 糖价延续⾛弱，供应压⼒边际增加 原⽊： 商品回调，原⽊偏弱 天然橡㬵观点：商品情绪转变较快，㬵价跟随⼤跌 逻辑： 昨日商品情绪继续向下坍塌，多数前期炒作反内卷的品种均出现 了至少5%左右及以上的跌幅。由于市场情绪似乎在对政策不及预期的交易 上开始转向，胶价作为前期跟涨的品种也出现了较大幅度的下挫。 不过 往后来看是否就开始回归基本面交易也暂时无法确定，所以我们认为暂时 还需要观望。而即便胶价转弱，就短期基本面来看，我们也不认为该品种 的即期基本面会拖拽盘面就此快速下行回到起涨点。 基本面方面， 供给 端来说， 亚洲大部分产区均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for specific varieties is also mostly "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, coke, etc. [9][10][13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the important meeting, although the tone is positive, it fails to meet the market's overly enthusiastic expectations, leading to a decline in black prices. However, as the previous bubble is squeezed out, there may be subsequent positive policies. The terminal demand has not shown an obvious turnaround, and the focus currently lies in the intermediate links. The market is volatile, and deep declines are not expected in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand performance in the future [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Steel mills' profitability has increased again, but iron water production has decreased in some areas due to rainfall, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in berthing ships, and at mills have all decreased. With high demand and inventory reduction in the iron ore market, there is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the price has slightly declined, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - Some coal mines have resumed production, but production disturbances still exist, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high. Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Upstream coal mines are still reducing inventories. Affected by the recent decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders are more cautious. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be highly volatile [3] Alloys - The continuous increase in coke prices has strengthened the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The manganese ore market is more cautious, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. The demand for ferromanganese - silicon from steel mills is still resilient, but as manufacturers resume production, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and both are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Glass - In the off - season, glass demand has declined, deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased. After the futures market decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled down. The supply is expected to remain stable. The "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate, and the short - term futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely [6] Soda Ash - In the long term, the over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market, but the delivery pressure is large. It is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, and the long - term price center will decline [6] Steel - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - trading has temporarily ended. There is a possibility of policy adjustment on the supply side and an increase in infrastructure steel demand. The export is expected to remain resilient. The actual implementation effect of steel mill production restrictions needs to be tracked. The steel market fundamentals are showing signs of weakening, and there is short - term downward pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [9] Iron Ore - Port transactions have decreased significantly. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume at ports has decreased. Steel mills' iron water production has decreased, and inventories have decreased. The fundamentals have limited negative driving force, and the price is expected to oscillate after a slight decline [10] Scrap Steel - The supply and demand of scrap steel have increased significantly. The inventory has slightly accumulated, and the price is expected to follow the trend of finished products [11] Coke - The futures market is oscillating weakly, and the spot price has decreased. Coke production is temporarily stable, and demand is still strong. The supply - demand structure is tight, and price increases are accelerating. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [13][14] Coking Coal - After the macro - meeting, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures market has declined significantly. The supply is slowly recovering, and demand is stable. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the short - term futures market is expected to be volatile [13][14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - After the Politburo meeting, the macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has declined weakly. The supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [18] Ferrosilicon - The futures price has declined significantly due to the weakening of market sentiment. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is resilient. The supply - demand relationship is healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [6] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [7] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [10][12] 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to exchange position limits and fluctuating supply - side expectations, new energy metals maintain high - level oscillations. The contraction expectation and cost increase expectation of the supply side support the prices of new energy metals, but the position limits and unconfirmed news lead to repeated capital expectations, causing high - level oscillations in prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is a game between sentiment and reality, and silicon prices continue to fluctuate. For polysilicon, market sentiment is volatile, leading to increased price fluctuations. For lithium carbonate, the market direction is unclear, and it oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Information analysis: As of July 31, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 442,900 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 27.7% year - on - year decrease. The export volume in June was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month increase and an 11.6% year - on - year increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in June was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [6]. - Main logic: On the supply side, the submerged arc furnaces of large northwest factories that were under maintenance have recently resumed production, and the resumption of production in the southwest has accelerated. In the short term, the reduction in the northwest still dominates supply changes, but domestic supply may gradually recover. On the demand side, it is still weak year - on - year but shows marginal improvement. The inventory of warehouse receipts has a certain support for silicon prices, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [6]. - Outlook: Silicon factories have a strong willingness to hold prices, and prices have moved up. Macro sentiment and coal prices drive silicon prices to continue to oscillate in the short term. The subsequent resumption rhythm and intensity in the northwest need further observation [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Information analysis: The transaction price of N - type re - feed material was in the range of 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 3,200 lots, an increase of 130 lots. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase and a 39.67% year - on - year decrease. The import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to June 2025 was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase [7]. - Main logic: Macroscopically, market risk sentiment has declined, and polysilicon prices have fallen again due to exchange position limits. In terms of supply, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest has increased. It is expected that the output will continue to rise in July - August. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit supply. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation in the first five months increased significantly, but it over - consumed the demand for the second half of the year, and the demand may weaken. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation of polysilicon, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [9][10]. - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted polysilicon prices. If the policy expectation is falsified, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Information analysis: On July 31, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 3.29% to 68,280 yuan, and the total open interest decreased by 27,750 lots to 699,164 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 950 yuan to 72,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade decreased by 950 yuan to 69,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 785 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 69,500 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts decreased by 7,586 tons to 5,545 tons [10][11]. - Main logic: Currently, the supply - demand drivers are not strong, and market sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, there are few changes. The weekly output has slightly decreased, mainly due to production cuts in salt lakes and mica mines. The demand is not significantly higher than expected, and the production schedule in August is relatively stable. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the remaining amount of warehouse receipt inventory after centralized cancellation meets expectations. The willingness to deliver warehouse receipts has recovered as prices rise, and warehouse receipts may gradually recover in August. In general, the domestic supply - demand is in a rough balance in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The core factors affecting the market are the anti - involution sentiment and the progress of mining license issues. Before the result of mine shutdown is confirmed, if market sentiment recovers, the price may rise. If the shutdown is falsified, it will return to fundamental trading; if confirmed, it will cause a large gap in the third quarter and drive prices up [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation [12].

Report Summary 1. Core View - On July 29, the margin trading balance of A-shares reached 1.9684 trillion yuan, hitting a ten-year high since July 2015, much higher than the 1.5 - 1.7 trillion yuan during the bull market in 2021 [2] - Leveraged funds actively increased their positions in July, with the market risk appetite at a relatively high level. Since the September 24, 2024 market rally, the central level of margin trading balance has risen from 1.5 trillion yuan to 1.8 trillion yuan, and the oscillation range was finally broken through after half a year [2] - The continuous momentum of optimistic sentiment is strong. Firstly, the "anti - involution" trading is recognized by leveraged funds, betting on the expectation of policy intensification. Secondly, the interim reports catalyze the trading of high - growth sectors. High - growth industries such as pharmaceuticals and technology meet the stock - selection preferences of leveraged funds [2] 2. No Report Industry Investment Rating is Mentioned

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the energy and chemical industry. However, the outlook suggests that the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate, and some chemical products with high inventories may face pressure and are suitable for short - allocation [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations, and the Chinese economy showed vitality and resilience. The energy and chemical sector continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical factors and economic data influenced the prices of energy and chemical products. The high - level meeting in China indicated good economic indicators, which may reduce the possibility of introducing economic stimulus policies, dragging down the demand side of commodities and energy chemicals to some extent [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical support continued, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil, and concerns about Trump's possible increased sanctions on Russia continued. Geopolitical factors drove oil prices. High refinery operations in China and the US and strong margins provided support, but OPEC + was in a period of rapid production increase, and supply pressure was still present. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure balanced each other, and oil prices fluctuated. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [9]. 3.2 LPG - **Viewpoint**: The support from the cost side weakened, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained loose, and the PG futures market might fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.3 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices rose, it was a good time for short - sellers of asphalt to enter the market. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil price rebounds drove asphalt price increases. The spot market of asphalt was stronger in the north than in the south, and the futures market might shift from Shandong - based pricing to East and South China - based pricing. The demand side was weak, and the valuation of asphalt was relatively high. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt was over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt might decline as the number of warehouse receipts increased [11]. 3.4 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation was affected. The supply of heavy oil increased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil were weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil was expected to increase and demand to decrease. Geopolitical upgrades would only cause short - term price fluctuations, and high - sulfur fuel oil would fluctuate weakly [12]. 3.5 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures rebounded following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It followed the trend of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread increased, low - sulfur fuel oil faced negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. The supply was expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it would maintain a low - valuation operation. - **Outlook**: Affected by green fuel substitution and limited demand for high - sulfur fuel oil substitution, but with a low current valuation, it would fluctuate following crude oil [13]. 3.6 PX - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the fundamental pricing logic, and attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations. - **Main Logic**: The impact of commodity sentiment subsided, and the market returned to fundamental pricing. Many PX plants were scheduled to restart in August, and new PTA plants were put into operation, so the supply - demand contradiction was not prominent, and there was limited upward or downward space. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of US secondary sanctions on Russia on oil prices [14]. 3.7 PTA - **Viewpoint**: New plants were put into operation, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. - **Main Logic**: The supply and demand of PTA both increased, but the marginal supply - demand relationship was still weak, and the repair of processing fees was blocked. The price would follow the cost of upstream products, and the processing fees might improve after large - scale plant maintenance in early August. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of large - scale plant maintenance at the beginning of August [15]. 3.8 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil rebounded, the price of pure benzene increased slightly. - **Main Logic**: The price of pure benzene increased slightly following the rebound of crude oil. The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved in the third quarter, but the rebound was limited by inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate [16]. 3.9 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The commodity sentiment cooled down, while crude oil prices broke through. Styrene fluctuated within a narrow range. - **Main Logic**: The fundamental situation of pure benzene improved, but it did not strongly support styrene. Styrene's own supply - demand was expected to weaken, and port inventories were accumulating. - **Outlook**: Although styrene inventories at ports were increasing recently, the inventories of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain were not high. If the macro - sentiment continued to improve, there might be inventory replenishment in the industry chain, which could support the market. Attention should be paid to changes in commodity sentiment [19]. 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: The fundamental driving force was limited, and typhoons affected the arrival rhythm of goods. - **Main Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol changed little. Although the demand increased slightly due to the rising polyester load, the supply was expected to increase in August, and the market was in a wide - balance state. Typhoons affected port inventories, but there was still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium term. - **Outlook**: There was an expectation of an inventory inflection point [20]. 3.11 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: It followed the trend passively. - **Main Logic**: Under the fluctuating raw material prices, the supply - demand of short - fiber changed little, and it mainly followed the upstream products. The downstream sales were still not good. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of short - fiber would remain stable, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [22]. 3.12 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It returned to the cost - pricing model. - **Main Logic**: With the fluctuating upstream polyester raw materials, the price of bottle - chip was mainly determined by cost, and its own supply - demand changed little, and the processing fees were weak. - **Outlook**: The processing fees of bottle - chip had support at the bottom, and the absolute price would follow the raw materials [23]. 3.13 PP - **Viewpoint**: There was still some macro - support, and PP fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Short - term oil price increases and positive signals from the macro - level provided support, but the supply side was expected to increase, and the demand side was weak. - **Outlook**: PP would fluctuate in the short term [31]. 3.14 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: It mainly followed the fluctuations, and PL might fluctuate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot supply of propylene was abundant, and the enterprise inventory was controllable. The market followed the fluctuations of PP and methanol. Due to the new product listing and far - month contracts, the influence of spot was limited, and the market might fluctuate at a relatively high level. - **Outlook**: PL would fluctuate in the short term [32]. 3.15 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: As oil prices strengthened, plastic fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: Oil price increases, macro - uncertainties, and the pressure on the supply side and weak demand side of plastic itself affected the market. - **Outlook**: The short - term oil price increase and macro - uncertainties led to short - term fluctuations in the plastic 09 contract [30]. 3.16 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The policy expectation cooled down, and PVC mainly fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: There were no unexpected policies in the high - level meeting, and the market sentiment cooled down. The fundamental situation of PVC was under pressure, with increasing production, weak downstream demand, and an expected increase in costs. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price declined [35]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supported by low inventories in Shandong, caustic soda fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment cooled down. The demand for caustic soda from the alumina industry increased marginally, but the overall supply was high. There was a balance between low inventories in Shandong and cost support. - **Outlook**: The policy expectation cooled down, and there was pressure from near - month warehouse receipts. The downward space of caustic soda was limited [35]. 3.18 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Port inventories were accumulating, and methanol fluctuated. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of methanol fluctuated. Port inventories increased, and the actual impact of policies was limited. The production profit was relatively high, and there was still a negative feedback expectation in the downstream olefin industry. - **Outlook**: It would fluctuate in the short term [26]. 3.19 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The supply was strong and the demand was weak. The sentiment was temporarily boosted, and exports supported the market. Urea fluctuated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The spot price increased, but the fundamental situation of supply - demand remained unchanged, with strong supply and weak demand. The market was expected to fluctuate due to the influence of coal policies. - **Outlook**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support was limited. The market sentiment temporarily boosted the price, and the futures price of urea would fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the development after the market returned to fundamentals [26]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Inter - Period Spread - The report provided the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data reflected the price differences between different delivery months of each variety [37]. 4.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the basis and the number of warehouse receipts for each variety, such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, PX, etc., which were important indicators for analyzing the relationship between the spot and futures markets [38]. 4.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The report showed the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., which helped to understand the relative price relationships between different energy and chemical products [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most black and building materials is "oscillating" [8][10][11][13][14][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "anti - involution" expectation has temporarily cooled down, and black prices have declined. Although the tone of the important meeting is positive, it falls short of the market's overly enthusiastic expectations. However, there is a possibility that subsequent meetings or policies may bring new benefits. The current driving force lies in the replenishment of the intermediate links. The mid - stream has a good mentality, is not eager to sell, and the spot prices are relatively firm. In the short term, it is advisable to take a low - buying approach, but there is a risk of a decline when the trading focus returns to the fundamentals in the peak season [1][2] - The overall black market has limited fundamental changes, and the macro - level benefits are not exhausted. It is recommended to wait and see to avoid risks. The subsequent focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - From the fundamental perspective, the overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased, which is in line with expectations. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output of steel enterprises has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports has slightly decreased. The fundamental negative driving factors for iron ore are limited, and the price is oscillating. If the market sentiment heats up again, the price may oscillate upwards [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - There are still production disturbances in the production areas, and the supply is still restricted, with the overall supply slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal in recent days has been over a thousand vehicles, maintaining a high level. The fourth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises have improved, but some enterprises are still in a loss state. Coke enterprises in the production areas have initiated the fifth round of price increases. Affected by environmental protection, maintenance and other reasons, the coke supply is still disturbed. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively replenishing inventory. Affected by the recent slowdown in the futures market, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders has increased, and the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent, and the impact of news - based stimuli is significantly stronger than the actual fundamental situation. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate greatly in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - The continuous increase in coke prices has continuously strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The increase in the outer - market quotation and the strengthening of the manganese silicon futures price have made manganese ore traders less willing to sell at low prices, and the port ore prices have remained stable for the time being. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel remains high. The downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, in an environment of profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuously advancing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected that the manganese silicon price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term [3][7] 3.3.2 Ferrosilicon - The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand remains resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy. It is expected that the price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term [7] 3.4 Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, the mid - stream has sold goods, and the production and sales of the upstream have significantly declined. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and its own contradictions are not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. The "anti - involution" sentiment may still fluctuate. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term [7] 3.5 Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply pattern of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the warming of the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, the inventory for positive arbitrage has been locked, and the delivery pressure is relatively large. It is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but the long - term price center will still decline [7] 3.6 Specific Product Analysis 3.6.1 Steel - The Politburo meeting emphasized the governance of disorderly competition among enterprises and the acceleration of the issuance and use of government bonds in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the introduction of policies around supply - side adjustment and the boost to the demand for steel in infrastructure construction from the accelerated issuance of bonds. The suspension period of the 24% tax rate, which was originally scheduled to end in mid - August, may be further extended, and exports are expected to remain resilient. As the parade date approaches, there are continuous news of steel mill production restrictions in various places, and the actual implementation effect needs to be tracked. The spot steel transactions in the East China region are generally weak. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased month - on - month; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly increased; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level in previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. The steel inventory is low, the fundamental pressure is limited, there is a possibility of production restrictions before the parade, and the fundamentals may improve before the peak season. The short - term futures market has strong support. The subsequent focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [10] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - The port transactions were 96.2 (- 10.2) tons. The main contract of the swap was 101.71 (- 1.03) US dollars/ton, PB powder was 772 (- 8) yuan/ton, and Brazilian mixed ore was 799 (- 4) yuan/ton, equivalent to 821 yuan/ton on the futures market. The basis of Brazilian mixed ore for the 09 contract was 32 yuan/ton, 01 contract was 55 yuan/ton, and 05 contract was 76 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB powder was 102 (+ 7) yuan/ton, the price difference between PB powder and Super Special powder was 130 (0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between PB powder and Brazilian mixed ore was - 27 (- 4) yuan/ton. The spot market quotes fell by 5 - 10 yuan/ton yesterday, and the port transactions decreased. The iron ore demand is at a high level, the supply is stable, the fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and the price is oscillating. If the market sentiment heats up again, the price may oscillate upwards [10] 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - The average tax - free price of crushed scrap in East China is 2156 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap in East China is 1177 (+ 9) yuan/ton. The rebar production has increased this week, the inventory has decreased, and the apparent demand has increased, with good fundamentals. In terms of scrap steel supply, the arrival volume has increased significantly this week. In terms of demand, the valley - electricity profit of electric furnaces has improved, and the profit in some areas is substantial. The daily consumption of electric furnaces has increased again; the molten iron output of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap has narrowed, the cost - performance of scrap steel has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steelmaking has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. In terms of inventory, the arrival volume has decreased month - on - month this week, but the daily consumption has increased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased. The scrap steel demand is at a high level, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and it is expected that the price will follow the finished steel [11] 3.6.4 Coke - On the futures side, coke fluctuates widely following coking coal; on the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is 1420 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the basis of the 09 contract at the port is - 150 yuan/ton (- 11). On the supply side, the fourth round of price increases has been fully implemented, and the profits of coke enterprises have improved, but some enterprises are still in a loss state. Coke enterprises in the production areas have initiated the fifth round of price increases. Affected by environmental protection, maintenance and other reasons, the coke supply is still disturbed. On the demand side, the molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month but remains at a high level, and the rigid demand still exists. Downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. At the same time, futures - spot traders are actively diverting the supply, and the coke inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. Currently, the coke supply - demand structure is relatively tight, and with cost support, the price increase of coke has significantly accelerated. The coke fundamentals are relatively healthy, and the futures market mainly follows the fluctuations of coking coal. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate widely in the short term [11][13] 3.6.5 Coking Coal - On the futures side, after the Politburo meeting yesterday, the market sentiment soared and then declined, but there is still some support from policy expectations; on the spot side, the price of medium - sulfur coking coal in Jiexiu is 1170 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1150 yuan/ton (+ 0). On the supply side, there are still production disturbances in the production areas, the supply is still restricted, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal in recent days has been over a thousand vehicles, maintaining a high level. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, the rigid demand for coking coal is strong, and the upstream coal mines are continuously reducing inventory. Affected by the recent slowdown in the futures market, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders has increased, and the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine resumption of production, and Mongolian coal imports in the future. Currently, the impact of news - based stimuli is significantly stronger than the actual fundamental situation. Driven by macro - policies, the sentiment is constantly changing. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate greatly in the short term [14] 3.6.6 Glass - The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1250 yuan/ton (0), in Central China is 1230 yuan/ton (0), and the national average price is 1236 yuan/ton (0). The Politburo meeting's statement on the real estate sector is relatively weak, only retaining urban renewal, and the "anti - involution" statement has not been further strengthened, with a neutral macro - environment. In the off - season, the demand has declined, the deep - processing orders have decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of raw glass have increased month - on - month, indicating downstream speculative purchases. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, the mid - stream has sold goods, and the production and sales of the upstream have significantly declined. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been cold - repaired. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and its own contradictions are not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. The "anti - involution" sentiment may still fluctuate. It is expected that the futures and spot prices will oscillate widely in the short term. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectations are strong, and the speculative demand is strong. In the short term, it is necessary to wait and see the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If the policies continue to exceed expectations, the downstream expectations may improve, and there may be a wave of inventory - replenishment price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downwards [14] 3.6.7 Soda Ash - The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1301 yuan/ton (- 2). The Politburo meeting's statement on the "anti - involution" issue has not been further strengthened, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, the long - term suppression still exists, the output is at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. Some manufacturers' output has returned today, and it is expected that the output will continue to increase in the future. On the demand side, heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has been continuously declining, falling below 90,000 tons this week, with the current daily melting volume at 89,800 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash is weakening. On the light soda ash side, the downstream procurement has recovered, but the overall downstream demand is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. Sentiment affects the futures market. The long - term oversupply pattern is difficult to change. In the short term, the warming of the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, the mid - stream inventory is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, with relatively large delivery pressure. The oversupply pattern has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. With the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6.8 Manganese Silicon - Yesterday, the black - chain varieties had a high - level correction, and the manganese silicon futures price opened high and closed low. On the spot side, manufacturers' quotes remain firm, but downstream procurement is still cautious, and high - level transactions need to be followed up. Currently, the ex - factory price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 45.0% Australian manganese ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 41 yuan/ton - degree (+ 1). On the cost side, the continuous increase in coke prices has continuously strengthened the cost support for manganese silicon. The increase in the outer - market quotation and the strengthening of the manganese silicon futures price have made manganese ore traders less willing to sell at low prices, and the port ore prices have continued to rise. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel remains high. A new round of steel procurement has started, and the downstream demand has been concentratedly released. However, in an environment of profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuously advancing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the policy trends regarding specific production - restriction policy requirements. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited. It is expected that the manganese silicon price will follow the performance of the sector and oscillate in the short term. In the future, the difficulty of market inventory reduction will increase, and the upside space of the price in the medium - to - long term should be viewed with caution [16] 3.6.9 Ferrosilicon - Recently, the futures price has been frequently affected by news and sentiment. Yesterday, the sentiment in the black market cooled down, and the ferrosilicon futures price opened higher with a gap and then trended weakly. On the spot side, manufacturers' supplies are tight, and quotes are relatively firm. It is difficult to find low - price supplies in the market. Currently, the price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lumps in Ningxia is 5700 yuan/ton (+ 150), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 17150 yuan/ton (+ 50). On the supply side, the industry profit has significantly improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The steel procurement in August has started, and the downstream demand has been concentratedly released. In the metal magnesium market, the inquiry and trading

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, with internal divisions persisting. Powell's remarks were seen as hawkish, reducing the probability of a September rate cut, leading to declines in US stocks and gold, and significant rebounds in the US dollar and Treasury yields. The US economic growth slowdown in the first half was removed from the statement, and no signal of a September rate cut was given. The US Q2 GDP data rebounded more than expected, but the growth center has shifted down overall. Tariffs are becoming a slow - moving variable, and the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in late August is important. The medium - and long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged. Refined copper being excluded from tariffs and the cooling of the anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver, which is expected to follow gold in a weak oscillation in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Focus on Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell said it was too early to determine a September rate cut [2] - The initial annualized Q2 real GDP in the US increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. The initial quarter - on - quarter increase in real personal consumption expenditure was 1.4%, slightly lower than the expected 1.5%. The initial annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, higher than the expected 2.3% [2] - The number of ADP employed people in the US in July increased by 104,000, exceeding the estimate of 75,000 [2] - The US Treasury plans to set the quarterly refinancing bond issuance at $125 billion, in line with expectations, and expects bond issuance to remain stable for at least the next few quarters [2] - Trump said India will pay a 25% tariff and a fine related to purchasing Russian military equipment and energy starting from August 1 [2] Price Logic - The Fed's inaction in the interest - rate meeting, combined with the hawkish remarks, led to market reactions. The Q2 GDP data showed a significant impact from tariffs, and the growth center has shifted down. The main contract of COMEX gold changed to 2512, causing price - spread fluctuations. The support level of spot gold at 3250 should be watched. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs and the cooling of anti - involution sentiment in China dragged down silver [3] Outlook - The weekly range of London Gold Spot is expected to be between 3250 and 3450, and that of London Silver Spot is expected to be between 36 and 40 [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-31 7月政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 有⾊观点：7⽉政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 交易逻辑：7月政治局会议基本符合预期，潜在增量刺激政策还需等 待，市场关注点逐步重新转向消费走弱；美欧达成15%关税，中美关 税进一步延期，整体来看，美国关税政策还未完全明朗，另外国内增 量刺激政策预期延后。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松， 国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看，关税不确定性及需求走弱预 期压制价格，但低库存及供应扰动对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机 会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会，逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美 铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会 面临短时抛压，中长期来看，基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性， 可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：政治局会议落地，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：仓单⼩幅增⻓，氧化铝延续宽幅震荡。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价窄幅震荡。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围浓厚，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪再起VS库存累积，锌价震荡运 ...