Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual ratings for different agricultural products: - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp [4][5][6][7][8][9][11] - **Oscillation on the strong side**: Corn and starch [5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Livestock, cotton, sugar, log [6][9][11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints - **Protein Meal**: With the increase in soybean premium and the rise in the futures market leading the spot market, the basis weakens. It is expected that before the weather speculation, US soybeans will maintain a range - bound oscillation. Under the pressure of increasing domestic supply, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures market, and the basis will continue to be weak. The futures market of soybean meal will move within a range following US soybeans [1][2][4]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment has weakened. In the medium - term, driven by trade policies, overseas biodiesel policies, and the supply of oilseeds, the oils and fats market is expected to maintain a range - bound operation. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support [4]. - **Corn and Starch**: The spot price remains strong, while the futures market rises first and then falls. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations. The continuous tightening of imported grains further confirms the expectation of inventory reduction, but continuous sharp increases are unlikely, and attention should be paid to potential negative factors such as import auctions [4][5]. - **Livestock**: In the short - term, the spot price of livestock is weak due to the off - season demand. In the long - term, the supply pressure will continue to increase, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The near - term market is under pressure, while the far - term market may improve due to expectations of inventory clearance and capacity adjustment [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the impact of commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is significant. The downward trend may continue. Although the futures market may temporarily stabilize and rebound slightly with the improvement of macro - sentiment, attention should be paid to the performance after the futures market reaches the pressure level [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of raw materials is weak, and the rise of the futures market is blocked. Attention should be paid to the support level of the futures market after the price of butadiene stabilizes. The futures market of synthetic rubber is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: In the short - term, it will oscillate within the range of 13,000 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and in the long - term, it will be weak with oscillations. Although the current low inventory may support the near - term contracts, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price in the long - term [9]. - **Sugar**: In the long - term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, the sugar price has a downward driving force; in the short - term, the weakening of the external market leads to a decline in valuation, and the sugar price is weak with oscillations [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The market operates flatly and is expected to oscillate. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the correction of the valuation of Russian needles may support the futures market [11]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market corrects. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak, and the volatility increases [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Outlook** - **Oils and Fats**: The market sentiment is weakening. Due to the optimistic sentiment of Sino - US trade negotiations and the good growth of US soybeans, the US soybean and soybean oil futures markets show different trends. Domestically, the cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil is expected to rise. For palm oil, the production and export in May in Malaysia were higher than expected, and the inventory was slightly lower than expected. The export in early June is expected to increase, and the short - term production pressure may decrease marginally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory is slowly decreasing but still at a high level, and the import volume may gradually decrease in the future [4]. - **Protein Meal**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, but there is a trend of increasing drought in the quarterly outlook. The premium of South American soybeans is rising, and the average daily export volume in the first week of June decreased year - on - year. It is expected that the price of US soybeans will oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the transaction volume of spot and basis has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of the spot price. The profit of oil mills has increased, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to rise seasonally, putting pressure on the basis. The downstream inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the downstream is becoming more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The inventory of breeding sows has increased year - on - year, indicating that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [1][4]. - **Corn and Starch**: Affected by the start of the minimum purchase price policy for wheat in Henan, the market sentiment is bullish. The continuous tightening of imported grains confirms the expectation of inventory reduction. However, the arrival of new wheat has reduced the demand for corn, and the futures market has fallen due to profit - taking by long - positions. In the medium - term, it is expected to operate on the strong side with oscillations [4][5]. - **Livestock**: After the recent sharp decline in pig prices, the state will conduct a central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage, which boosts market sentiment. However, the inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals are still loose. In the short - term, the slaughter weight of livestock decreases, and the supply of large pigs increases. In the medium - term, the number of new - born piglets from January to April 2025 continued to increase, and it is expected that the supply of livestock will increase in the third quarter. In the long - term, the production capacity is still at a high level, and the motivation for capacity reduction is insufficient. The demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations [6]. - **Natural Rubber**: The macro - sentiment is strong, and the rubber price rebounds but is blocked near the pressure level. The implementation of zero - tariff policies for African products may have an impact on the market, but it needs further observation. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in Thailand, and the raw material price has rebounded recently. The demand side shows weak recovery in tire production, and the inventory problem has not been significantly improved. The downward trend may continue [6][7]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trading of butadiene is weak, which drags down the futures market. Although it rebounded slightly in the afternoon, the overall decline was small. The fundamentals have not changed much. The purchase of butadiene is expected to provide short - term support, and the futures market is expected to temporarily stabilize but still face pressure from above [8][9]. - **Cotton**: Driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment and the expectation of tight supply, the cotton price rebounds. The planting area of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to increase, and the production may increase if there is no extreme weather. The demand side has weakened recently, and the inventory is decreasing faster than before, which may support the price in the short - term. In the long - term, the expected increase in new crop production will put pressure on the price [9]. - **Sugar**: The market is trading in advance the expectation of a loose global sugar market supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to have good production. Although the production data in the first half of May in Brazil decreased year - on - year, the overall optimistic expectation remains unchanged. In China, the production of the 24/25 crushing season has ended, with a high sales rate and low inventory, but there is pressure from subsequent arrivals. The sugar price is expected to be weak in the long - term and weak with oscillations in the short - term [11]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures market moves horizontally, and the near - term contracts are weak. The supply - demand situation shows that the warehouse receipts are decreasing, the supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and there are news of strikes and price - holding by pulp mills. The previous rebound of the futures market was mainly due to the correction of the valuation of Russian needles, and now it is approaching the end of the correction. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Log**: As the delivery of the LG2507 contract approaches, the game between long and short positions intensifies, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. In the short - term, it is expected to be weak. Fundamentally, the supply of logs is accumulating, and the spot price is under pressure [12]. **Variety Data Monitoring** The document lists the data monitoring sections for various products such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, livestock, rubber, cotton, sugar, paper pulp, and log, but specific data details are not fully presented in the text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is mainly "oscillating", with glass and soda ash having a "weak - oscillating" outlook [6][7][10][11][12][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, the black - building materials market is in a state of oscillation. Although the previous price decline has accumulated strong momentum, and there was a large - scale rebound after macro - positive and coking coal news, the approaching off - season in the domestic construction and manufacturing industries, combined with factors such as increased iron ore shipments and unimproved fundamentals of coking coal and coke, have led to the price returning to a weak state [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mines are increasing shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with shipments expected to remain high until early July. Steel enterprises' profitability is stable, and hot metal production has slightly decreased but is expected to remain high in the short term. The supply - demand balance is tight, with limited short - term inventory accumulation pressure. There may be a slight increase in port inventory at the end of the month, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - Some coal mines have slightly reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines are operating normally, and coking coal production remains relatively high. Mongolian coal transactions are limited, and port inventory is accumulating. On the demand side, coke production has started to decline, and coke enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, with shrinking coking profits. During the price - cut period, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory has decreased, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal has increased. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost side is under pressure as manganese ore prices may decline. The supply in some regions has slightly increased, but due to cost inversion, manufacturers' willingness to sell is low. The demand is weak as the black market enters the off - season, and downstream buyers are pressing for lower prices. The supply - demand relationship is becoming looser, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate [3][5][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply has slightly increased, and the terminal steel - using industry is about to enter the off - season. Downstream enterprises have a strong willingness to reduce inventory, and the market sentiment is cautious. The cost may still have a negative impact. The short - term disk is expected to be under pressure and oscillate, and future steel procurement and production conditions should be monitored [5][14]. Glass - In the off - season, demand is declining, and the deep - processing demand is still weak compared to the same period last year, leading to a decline in spot prices. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold - repair and ignition, and there are 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so supply pressure remains. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, while the mid - stream inventory has decreased. There are rumors in the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. Coal prices are also expected to decline, and market sentiment fluctuates. The disk price is lower than the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei's spot glass has led the disk price to decline. The short - term view is weak - oscillating [5]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the resumption of maintenance has increased supply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long term, the price center will continue to decline [5][12]. Other Products - **Steel**: The domestic policy is in a vacuum period after the Sino - US talks. The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, and the supply has not decreased significantly, but hot metal production may have peaked. The inventory is still decreasing, and the main factors suppressing the disk price are the decline in raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. The short - term steel price is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: As the building materials off - season deepens, the apparent demand for rebar has decreased. The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, and the finished product disk price is under pressure. The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, which supports the price. The demand has slightly increased overall, but the inventory in steel mills has decreased due to a significant drop in arrivals. The scrap steel price is expected to oscillate following the finished product price [7]. - **Coke**: After the third price cut, the terminal steel - using demand is in the off - season, and the market is pessimistic. There is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply has slightly decreased in some regions, but overall production is stable, and the inventory of coke enterprises is accumulating. The demand is weakening as hot metal production declines. The price is under downward pressure due to weak demand support and cost drag [7][9][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The market transaction price has continued to decline. Some coal mines have reduced production, but the overall supply is still abundant. The demand for coking coal is declining as coke production weakens. The upstream inventory pressure has increased during the price - cut period. The short - term price lacks the driving force for a trend - like increase and is expected to be weak [7][11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-12 谈判落地，股债双⽜ 股指期货：市场对⾼度有所分歧 股指期权：期权对冲防御 国债期货：债市表现较强 股指期货方面，市场对高度有所分歧。昨日盘面普涨，热点题材集中 在汽车零部件、新消费、稀土等领域，上行普遍由行业政策所驱动，宏观 及政策预期对盘面扰动弱化。从近一段市场表现来看，A股震荡中稳步上 行，进攻方向相对聚焦，但部分投资者担心微盘拥挤风险，在流动性宽裕 环境中，资金聚焦哑铃配置。但伴随沪指逼近3月高点，市场当前对于高 度分歧严重，谨慎者认为上行仍需盈利或是政策层面的配合，乐观者认为 量化抱团会使得强者恒强，向上突破概率较大。在明确突破或是回调之 前，暂建议维持谨慎态度，多看少动。 程小庆 从业资格号:F3083989 投资咨询号:Z0018635 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each metal, it provides a mid - to long - term outlook, including "oscillation", "oscillation - weakening", etc., which can be roughly understood as a short - to medium - term investment view. For example, copper, aluminum, lead, stainless steel, and tin are expected to oscillate; zinc and nickel are expected to oscillate weakly; and the outlook for alumina and aluminum alloy is more specific with trading strategies [5][8][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The colored metals market is influenced by a combination of a weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand, leading to continued oscillation. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand outlook for base metals, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to short on rallies for some metals with oversupply or expected oversupply [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Current Situation**: The US May labor market data was better than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 139,000. Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. In May, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.26 million tons month - on - month and 12.86% year - on - year. As of June 9, copper inventory in mainstream regions in China rose to 149,500 tons. The US increased the tariff on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The US manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, and overseas economies are at risk of further weakening. On the supply side, copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have announced maintenance and production cuts. On the demand side, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rise, limiting the upward space for copper prices [5]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, supporting the bottom of copper prices. It is expected that copper will show high - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3.2 Alumina - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina dropped by 15 yuan to 3,280 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped by 41.4 yuan to 3,260.8 yuan. An electrolytic aluminum plant in the northwest region tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina, and a plant in Guangxi purchased 2,000 tons. Indonesia's Bintan Alumina Company's Phase III project entered the trial production stage, and a mining license in Guinea was revoked [5]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore. With the repair of previous spot - futures profits, an increase in operating capacity and an inventory inflection point are expected. Long - term news is frequent, but the impact is expected to be limited if not fermented on the basis of red mud. The market has relatively fully priced in the news of the revoked mining license in Guinea and is becoming desensitized to it [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain than that of far - month ore supply. Given the current back structure, consider rolling into 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse spreads. Aggressive investors can short contract 07 on rallies [6]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the average price of SMM Shanghai aluminum ingot spot was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As of June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 129,500 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's increase in steel and aluminum tariffs has intensified global trade tensions. On the supply side, the spot price of upstream alumina has declined, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has remained high. Overseas, the import of electrolytic aluminum into China is at a loss, and the supply growth space is limited. On the demand side, downstream demand has strengthened. In the long - term, domestic supply pressure is limited, and demand is expected to be cautiously optimistic, with the aluminum market in a tight - balance state [8]. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand has slightly increased, and it is expected that inventories will decline in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,400 yuan/ton. The SMM AOO average price was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO was - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [8]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, the pressure of the automotive off - season is high, ADC12 is weak, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory is low with firm prices. ADC12 - AOO may still weaken. In the long - term, the demand for ADC12 is expected to seasonally recover in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of an increase in ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 oscillates weakly. In the long term, ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO are expected to rise [11]. 3.5 Zinc - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 295 yuan/ton, and that of Guangdong 0 zinc was 285 yuan/ton. As of June 10, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last Thursday. Kipushi Mine is expected to produce 50,000 - 70,000 tons of zinc concentrate [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is volatile, and macro - uncertainty remains. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, domestic zinc ore processing fees have increased, and smelters have started to make profits and increase production willingness. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and terminal new orders are limited. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is small, and supply will remain in oversupply [12]. - **Outlook**: After annual maintenance, zinc ingot production has increased again, downstream demand has gradually weakened, and inventories have accumulated. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and continue to decline in the long term [12]. 3.6 Lead - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, and the difference between primary and recycled lead was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,625 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets decreased by 500 tons to 53,400 tons, and the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,198 tons [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount was stable, and the difference between primary and recycled lead increased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries was stable, the lead price rose, the loss of recycled lead smelting narrowed, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental inspections. On the demand side, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the operating rate of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased last week, but the operating rate was higher than the same period in previous years due to the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets [13]. - **Outlook**: After the Geneva negotiations, Sino - US tariffs have decreased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the demand off - season has arrived, and battery dealers' finished product inventories are high, but the electric bicycle market's "trade - in" activities may keep the battery factory operating rate better than in previous years. The supply of lead ingots may remain stable this week. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise, and the cost of recycled lead provides high - level support. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15]. 3.7 Nickel - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME nickel inventory was 198,126 tons, a decrease of 966 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,041 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. Indonesia and France agreed to strengthen cooperation in key minerals, and BHP renewed an exploration agreement in Norway. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and has proposed a strategy to stabilize mineral and coal prices. The production of hydroxide precipitates in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park has declined [15][16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are showing marginal weakness. The ore end is relatively strong, but the rainy season may restrict raw materials. The production of intermediate products has recovered, the price of nickel salts has slightly declined, the profit of salt factories has slightly improved, and the production of nickel sulfate from nickel beans is still at a loss. The supply of electrolytic nickel is in serious excess, and inventories have accumulated significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The US reciprocal tariffs have led to a systematic price decline. In the long term, short on rallies. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [18]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Current Situation**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 120,039 tons, a decrease of 1,624 tons from the previous trading day. On June 10, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless steel main contract was 540 yuan/ton. In May, the national nickel pig iron production increased, and it is expected to decrease in June. The production of high - carbon ferrochrome increased in May. The national stainless steel production decreased slightly in May [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has declined slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has weakened marginally. The 300 - series stainless steel is still in an inverted situation, putting pressure on steel mills. In May, stainless steel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to further decrease in June. Demand is gradually moving out of the peak season, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. The social inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt reduction is significant, alleviating the structural oversupply pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost side still supports steel prices, but the market's acceptance of prices is limited. Demand moving out of the peak season also puts pressure on steel prices. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost - side changes. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.9 Tin - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,415 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 38 tons to 6,866 tons. The Shanghai tin open interest increased by 107 lots to 50,717 lots. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 264,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The previous sharp decline in tin prices may be due to short - sellers entering the market in advance under long - term pessimistic expectations, and the rumor of Wa State's resumption of production was just a trigger. In the short term, after the over - decline and the news of a slow resumption of production, the price rebounded. With Wa State's tin production not yet resumed, the domestic ore supply is tight, and the supply - demand fundamentals of tin are resilient. However, the easing of supply - side disturbances and the less - optimistic long - term demand outlook limit the upward elasticity of tin prices [23]. - **Outlook**: News from Wa State has increased tin price volatility. The tight ore supply provides support for tin prices. Whether the tight ore supply can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of tin prices in June. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillation**: Oils and fats, protein meal, corn and starch, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp [4][5] - **Oscillation on the weak side**: Live pigs, cotton, sugar, logs [2][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The MPOB report has limited impact on oils and fats, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical resistance. The protein meal downstream procurement is becoming more cautious, with spot prices weaker than the futures. The bullish sentiment for corn/starch is rising, and the 09 contract has broken through the previous high. The pork reserve purchase has temporarily boosted the market sentiment for live pigs. The strength of commodities has driven up the price of rubber, while synthetic rubber has changed little and followed the rebound. The macro - environment affects the sentiment of pulp commodities, and pulp maintains an oscillating trend. The fundamentals of cotton have changed little, and the macro - level has released positive news to boost the futures. The sugar price is oscillating weakly, and the log futures are experiencing a decline due to strong delivery games [1][4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production, exports in May were higher than expected, and inventory was slightly lower than expected. May production was 1.7716 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 3.94%; exports were 1.3872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25.85% and a year - on - year increase of 0.64%; inventory was 1.9902 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 6.68% and a year - on - year increase of 13.5% [4]. - **Logic**: Due to good weather in US soybean - growing areas and an improvement in the good - to - excellent rate, US soybeans fell on Monday, and China's three major oils oscillated and adjusted yesterday, with palm oil being weaker. The market is focused on Sino - US trade negotiations, the US dollar weakened, and crude oil prices continued to rise. The cost of imported South American soybeans has increased, and there is still great uncertainty in US biodiesel and foreign trade policies. The soybean planting progress in the US has reached 90%, and the good - to - excellent rate is 68%. In the next two weeks, precipitation in US soybean - growing areas will be normal, and the temperature is expected to be high in mid - June. A large number of imported soybeans are arriving in China, and the domestic soybean oil inventory is expected to continue to rise. The MPOB report on palm oil has limited impact, and the short - term production increase pressure may weaken marginally. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still high and the supply is sufficient [4]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the oils and fats market may operate within a range. Recently, there may be a rebound demand for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of upper technical resistance [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On June 10, 2025, the international soybean trade basis quotes for US Gulf soybeans were 226 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 7.62% and a year - on - year change of - 20 cents per bushel or - 8.6957%; for US West soybeans, they were 199 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 16 cents per bushel or 8.74% and a year - on - year change of - 54 cents per bushel or - 22.7848%; for South American soybeans, they were 180 cents per bushel, with a week - on - week change of 12 cents per bushel or 7.14% and a year - on - year change of - 6 cents per bushel or - 3.4483%. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 34.17 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 20.49 yuan per ton or 149.78% and a year - on - year change of - 74.08 yuan per ton or - 84.412% [4]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing and emergence of US soybeans are going smoothly, and the precipitation and temperature in the next 15 days will be slightly high. Although the drought in June is not a major problem, it is expected to intensify in the quarterly outlook. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate within a range. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal continues to rise slightly, but the spot and basis trading volume has decreased significantly. The supply pressure restricts the increase of spot prices. The oil mill's profit margin has increased month - on - month. It is expected that the soybean arrivals will increase in the next few months, the oil mill's operating rate will remain high, the soybean meal inventory will increase seasonally, and the basis will be under seasonal pressure. The downstream soybean meal inventory has increased month - on - month, and the downstream has become more cautious after replenishing at low levels. The year - on - year increase in the inventory of breeding sows indicates that the rigid demand for soybean meal consumption may increase steadily [4]. - **Outlook**: Before weather speculation, US soybeans are expected to maintain an oscillating trend within a range. Under the dominance of increasing supply pressure in China, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the futures, and the basis will continue to be weak. The soybean meal futures will follow the US soybeans to operate within a range [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Industry Information**: According to Mysteel, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2,340 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 30 yuan per ton. The average domestic corn price is 2,391 yuan per ton, with a price increase of 12 yuan per ton and an expanding increase [4]. - **Logic**: The wheat minimum purchase price policy has been launched in Henan over the weekend, which has continuously boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. The import of grains has been continuously tightened, and the expectation of inventory reduction is gradually being realized. The fundamental situation shows that the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants this morning is 116, remaining at a low level. The demand for new corn from downstream feed - using enterprises is limited, but there is still rigid demand for corn in some egg - laying hens, young poultry, and pig feed. Futures prices have continuously risen, which has in turn boosted the bullish sentiment in the market. In the medium term, the import of grains has been continuously tightened, further confirming the expectation of inventory reduction [4][5]. - **Outlook**: Corn and starch are expected to operate with a bullish bias [5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Industry Information**: On June 10, the price of live pigs (external ternary) in Henan was 14.01 yuan per kilogram, with a week - on - week change of 0.79%. The closing price of live pig futures (active contract) was 13,595 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week change of 0.89% [5]. - **Logic**: After the recent rapid decline in pig prices, the pig - grain ratio has decreased. On June 11, 10,000 tons of central reserve frozen pork will be purchased, which has boosted market sentiment. However, the current inventory pressure is still high, and the fundamentals remain loose. In the short term, the slaughter weight of live pigs has decreased, and the proportion of large - pig slaughter has significantly increased. In the medium term, the number of newly - born piglets from January to April 2025 has continued to increase, and it is expected that the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase in the third quarter. In the long term, the current production capacity is still at a high level, and the inventory of breeding sows in May has continued to increase month - on - month in the sample points of Steel Union and Yongyi. The terminal consumption has entered the off - season, and the slaughter demand has decreased. The average slaughter weight has decreased month - on - month [1][5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price is weak, and in the long term, the price is in a downward cycle. The near - term market is under pressure to sell, and the far - term market is affected by the expectation of inventory clearance and production capacity adjustment, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 13,740 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan; the domestic full - latex old rubber is 13,800 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan. The STR20 spot in the free trade zone is 1,715 US dollars, up 5 US dollars. The price of glue entering the dry - glue factory in Yunnan is 13,000 yuan, unchanged; the price of rubber blocks is 12,600 yuan, unchanged. On June 10, the raw material market quotes in Thailand's Hat Yai showed that the price of white sheet rubber was 63.66 baht, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 67.88 baht; the price of glue was 56.25 baht, up 0.25 baht; the price of cup lump was 46.2 baht, up 1 baht. According to the latest data released by the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales volume of the national passenger car market reached 1.932 million units in May this year, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month increase of 10.1%. From January to May this year, the cumulative retail sales volume of the passenger car market reached 8.811 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1% [5][6]. - **Logic**: Driven by the strength of commodities, the rubber price has increased, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals have changed little. On the supply side, Thailand is still affected by the rainy season, and the raw material price has started to decline under the drag of the futures. On the demand side, the overall recovery of tire production is weak, and the finished - product inventory backlog has been slightly alleviated, but there is still no obvious improvement. With the improvement of the macro - sentiment, the futures may temporarily stabilize and have a slight rebound [6]. - **Outlook**: Currently, the fundamentals of rubber are still weak, and the impact of the commodity atmosphere and capital sentiment is relatively large, and the downward trend may continue [6]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The spot prices of butadiene rubber standard delivery products from two major oil companies are as follows: the market price in Shandong is 11,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Zhejiang Chuanhua is 11,450 yuan per ton, unchanged; the market price in Yantai Haopu is 11,400 yuan per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price of butadiene in the central Shandong region is 9,450 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan; the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangyin is 9,100 yuan per ton, down 175 yuan [5]. - **Logic**: The futures followed the broader market to rise slightly yesterday, but the fundamentals have changed little recently. The current futures price has returned to the previous low and the absolute low since listing. The BR fundamentals are relatively neutral, and most private production enterprises have started to reduce production, which may help alleviate the subsequent social inventory pressure. The butadiene market is operating weakly, but the tight supply of spot resources has gradually supported the market sentiment. As the price declines, the phased buying in the market has gradually followed up, and the premium transaction of auctioned goods has boosted the replenishment enthusiasm of middlemen, providing short - term support [7]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the support of the futures after the butadiene price stabilizes. The BR futures are expected to temporarily stabilize, but there is still pressure on the upside [7]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the number of registered warrants in the 2024/2025 season is 10,815. As of June 9, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,520 yuan per ton, up 25 yuan per ton week - on - week [7]. - **Logic**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen for three consecutive trading days. The fundamentals have changed little, and the market sentiment has been boosted by positive macro - news last week. In the new cotton planting season, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang is expected to increase year - on - year. If there is no extreme weather, the cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/2026 season may remain high or even reach a new high, with the market generally expecting it to be around 7 million tons. On the demand side, the downstream production has been stable since the beginning of the year until before the Dragon Boat Festival, and cotton consumption has been rapid. However, since June, the downstream demand has gradually entered the off - season, the enterprise operating rate has decreased, and the finished - product inventory has gradually accumulated. On the inventory side, the cotton inventory reduction speed has accelerated, and the commercial inventory is lower than that of last year and the five - year average, which may support the price [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, cotton is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, it is expected to oscillate on the weak side [7][8]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: As of June 10, the Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract closed at 5,717 yuan per ton, down 17 yuan per ton week - on - week [9]. - **Logic**: The market has advanced the trading of the expectation of a loose global sugar supply in the 2025/2026 season. In the new season, Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The new sugar - making season in Brazil's central - southern region has started, and although the production data as of the first half of May has declined year - on - year, the market's optimistic expectation for the total output remains unchanged. China's 2024/2025 sugar - making season has ended, with a high sales - to - production ratio, a year - on - year decrease in industrial inventory, and a low import volume, but there will be subsequent arrival pressure [9]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, due to the expected loose supply in the new season, the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the decline of the external market has led to a downward shift in valuation, and the sugar price is oscillating weakly [9]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: According to Longzhong Information, on the previous trading day, the price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong is 5,350 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Maples is 5,750 yuan per ton, unchanged; the price of Silver Star is 6,150 yuan per ton, unchanged. The price of Golden Fish is 4,120 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Logic**: Currently, the pulp supply - demand situation is as follows: the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and there are rumors of maintenance and production conversion for Russian softwood pulp, so the price difference between Russian softwood pulp and other softwood pulps may return to the normal historical level. The continuous production pressure of hardwood pulp is emerging, the US dollar price is continuously decreasing, and the domestic downward space has been opened. The overseas shipment is abundant, and the domestic arrival volume of hardwood pulp is generally high. The demand side is generally weak. In the short term, there are news of strikes and pulp mills' price - holding in the supply side. The previous month's futures rebound was mainly due to the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is now approaching the end. Excluding this factor, the overall pulp supply - demand is weak, and the abundant supply of hardwood pulp suppresses the hardwood pulp price, and the weak demand. The decline in the hardwood pulp price negatively affects the softwood pulp price through the price difference between soft and hard pulp. In the future, due to the weak supply - demand, the basis of other softwood pulps may continue to decline. The pulp futures are priced based on Russian softwood pulp, and the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts and the production conversion of Russian softwood pulp will continue to drive the futures to resist decline [10]. - **Outlook**: Due to the conflict between the weak supply - demand situation, which is negative for the single - side market, and the valuation correction of Russian softwood pulp, which is positive for the futures, the pulp futures are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: The spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu is 770 yuan per cubic meter, and the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan per cubic meter. The LG2507 log futures contract closed at 772 yuan per cubic meter, with a basis of - 2 yuan in Jiangsu and - 22 yuan in Rizhao [11]. - **Logic**: Since June, the fundamentals of logs have weakened, and the short - term supply is still accumulating, with the spot price still under pressure. In the futures market, the main log

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The ongoing China - US trade negotiations are the focus of the market, and their results will significantly affect the US dollar's trend, investors' risk - aversion sentiment, and thus the gold price. The market is also waiting for the US CPI inflation data on Wednesday to guide the future interest - rate path. Gold prices held steady on Tuesday, trading around $3340 and staying above the key support level of the 20 - day moving average ($3303). Optimistic market sentiment boosted the US dollar and limited gold's upside potential, making it difficult to break through the psychological resistance level of $3350. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver in the range of [32, 35] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Key Information - The China - US trade talks in London are progressing well and are expected to last until Tuesday [2]. - California officials accused President Trump of intensifying the tense situation in Los Angeles by deploying the National Guard, while the White House thought the violent demonstrations justified increased efforts to deport illegal immigrants [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported pork and pork by - products from the EU until December 16, 2025 [2]. Price Logic - The ongoing China - US trade negotiations are the main focus. The US Commerce Secretary said the talks were "going well", and the economic advisor hinted at the lifting of the ban on rare - earth exports. Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, with market optimism boosting the US dollar and limiting gold's upside [3]. - China's May exports to the US dropped by 35% compared to the same period last year, the largest decline since the pandemic, highlighting the changing trade environment [3]. - The market is closely watching whether the negotiation progress can ease tensions and promote global economic growth and is waiting for the US CPI inflation data on Wednesday to guide the future interest - rate path [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-11 等待谈判落地 股指期货：放量回撤，震荡市对待 股指期权：买权对冲防御 国债期货：市场情绪偏谨慎 股指期货方面，放量回撤，震荡市对待。昨日午后异动下跌，盘面整 体放量，尤其是科创板块表现弱势，计算机、军工、半导体领跌，但盘面 无太多恐慌情绪。关于下跌的原因，消息面并无明确支持因素，我们理解 盘面回撤更多的是与情绪阶段过热有关。其一，沪指逼近3400点关口， 属于年内偏上沿区域，部分资金担心无法新高之后的回撤风险，其二， 创新药、新消费接连成为阶段主线，板块交易有拥挤之嫌，结合强势股蜜 雪集团多日出现长阴，市场担心高波环境下的持续性问题，其三，消息面 市场计价中美关系缓和，但鉴于谈判结果未定，也有部分资金可能逢高止 盈，提防不确定性。对于下跌，我们认为未必代表调整开始，但短期市场 缺少上行催化因素，仍建议观望。 股指期权方面，买权对冲防御。昨日权益市场早盘震荡，午后跳水。 期权方面，市场成交额提升26.5%重回近10个交易日高位，但交投活跃的 成因在于日内行情波动，期权端对冲避险，而并非资金进场交易。成交量 P ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy and chemical products should be treated with an oscillatory mindset as macro - data starts to reflect the weakening economic situation. The chemical sector shows a weaker trend than crude oil, and the market is still dominated by the pessimistic expectation of future demand [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: There is still an expectation of supply surplus, and attention should be paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances. The price of crude oil will continue to oscillate under the balance of OPEC+ production - increasing pressure and macro - geopolitical benefits [5]. - **Main Logic**: The EIA short - term energy outlook continues to lower the expected production of the US next year, and the API data shows that the US destocked crude oil and restocked refined oil last week, with relatively weak terminal demand. Although the recent macro - environment has eased and Saudi Arabia's production increase in May was limited, the supply surplus expectation still exists in the second half of the year due to the cumulative effect of production increase [5]. LPG - **View**: The domestic combustion and chemical demand remain weak, with limited upward rebound space and may oscillate at the bottom in the short term [9]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic refineries are gradually resuming from maintenance, increasing the supply of liquefied gas and civil gas, and the refinery inventory is rising. High temperatures reduce the civil combustion demand, and the downstream restocking willingness is limited. The PDH device operating rate has declined slightly, and the port inventory is rising, with limited incremental demand for propane [9]. Asphalt - **View**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [5]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in heavy - oil supply due to OPEC+ production increase and the improvement of domestic raw material supply will put pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - estimated, and it needs both strong crude oil and rebar for a bull market, but the current situation does not support it [5][6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It will oscillate weakly as the supply increases and demand decreases, and the geopolitical impact on prices is short - term [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: The increase in heavy - oil supply, the rise in import tariffs, and the substitution of natural gas for oil power generation will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil prices. The current strong cracking spread and weak discount are due to different factors, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [6][7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It will follow the crude oil price to oscillate, with increasing supply, falling demand, and may maintain a low - valuation operation [8][9]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of low - sulfur fuel oil are both weak. The reduction of domestic refined - oil export tax rebates and the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates will increase the supply pressure, which is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [8][9]. Methanol - **View**: It will oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Main Logic**: The methanol price oscillated on June 10. The port inventory is entering a restocking cycle, and the coal price has a short - term rebound, which has a slight impact on methanol. The olefin market is still weak, providing limited support for methanol [17]. Urea - **View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and the futures price will oscillate weakly [17]. - **Main Logic**: The high supply continues, and the agricultural demand has not seen concentrated replenishment yet, while the industrial demand is weakening. Exports are expected to be reflected in late June, and the enterprise inventory is rising [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: It has support at the 4200 - 4300 level, and short - selling is not recommended [13]. - **Main Logic**: The industrial pattern of ethylene glycol is still healthy from June to July. The possible stagnation of US ethane exports may limit future production, and the downward space is limited [13]. PX - **View**: It will oscillate weakly as the supply restarts quickly, and attention should be paid to PTA production and polyester start - up [11]. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end guidance of PX is slowing down due to the uncertain future OPEC+ production policy and concerns about global demand. The Asian PX operating load will increase, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle, but the supply - demand game is intensifying [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply increases and demand decreases, and the situation is gradually weakening [11]. - **Main Logic**: The weaving load is declining due to limited orders and high inventory. The PTA supply is restarting, and the supply - demand weak expectation restricts the market sentiment, and the destocking is narrowing in June [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: The processing fee is supported by production cuts, and the absolute value follows the raw material price [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: The PF fundamentals are improving marginally. The supply pressure is relieved due to production cuts, and the spot basis is strengthening. The short - term decline is driven by the macro - environment, and the industrial pattern is still healthy [13][14]. Bottle Chip - **View**: It will oscillate and follow the raw material price [15]. - **Main Logic**: After the price decline, the trading volume of bottle chips has increased, and the basis has strengthened. Exports have diverted some of the excess supply, but it is not enough to change the weak situation. The scope of production cuts and maintenance may expand [15][16]. PP - **View**: It will oscillate in the short term [20]. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end support is marginally increasing, but the supply is still increasing, and the downstream demand is weak. The high - speed growth of supply continues, and the upstream refinery profit may need to be further compressed to balance the supply [20]. Plastic - **View**: It will oscillate as the improvement of maintenance is limited [19]. - **Main Logic**: The cost - end valuation support is marginally increasing, but the plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure. The supply pressure is high, the downstream demand is weak, and the export window has not widened significantly [19]. Styrene - **View**: It rebounded due to macro - expectations, but the subsequent driving force is insufficient and will oscillate weakly [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - meeting and device rumors drove the rebound. However, the real - world benefits are limited, the supply may increase due to the restart of long - stopped devices, and the demand and inventory situation of styrene and its downstream products are not optimistic [11][12]. PVC - **View**: It will have a weak rebound in the short term due to improved sentiment, but may face pressure in the long term [22]. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment has improved due to Sino - US talks. However, in the long term, new production capacity will be put into operation, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and exports are expected to weaken. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, the production will increase after the new capacity is put into operation in mid - July [22]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The spot price has peaked, and it is advisable to short on rallies [22]. - **Main Logic**: The non - aluminum demand is entering the off - season, and the receiving price of Weiqiao has started to decline. Although there are many maintenance plans in June, the supply is expected to increase in the third quarter. The current supply and demand are both weak, and the 09 - contract fundamentals are pessimistic [22]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as SC, WTI, Brent, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [23]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of multiple varieties including asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented [24]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are given [25]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although sub - headings for multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. are provided, no specific content is given in the provided documents.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for various products: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are rated as "oscillating"; glass and soda ash are also rated as "oscillating weakly" [7][11]. Core Viewpoints - Amid frequent macro - disturbances, the prices of the black series are oscillating near the cost support level. With the approaching off - season, the demand for building materials remains weak, and the demand for industrial materials is under pressure to decline from high levels. Although some electric furnaces and blast furnaces are in the red, the overall profitability of steel mills is stable, and the conditions for negative feedback are not yet mature. The prices are testing for an upward movement near the support level, waiting for favorable factors, but the upward pressure is still strong [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are ramping up shipments at the end of the fiscal year and quarter, with an expected seasonal increase in shipments, which will remain high until early July. On the demand side, the profitability of steel enterprises is stable, and hot metal production is slightly decreasing but expected to remain high in the short term. Under the tight supply - demand balance, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure is small. At the end of the month, with the arrival of ores shipped during the peak period, the port may see a slight inventory increase, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [2][7]. Carbon Element - **Coking Coal**: Recently, the output of some coal mines has slightly declined due to factors such as changing working faces, inventory pressure, and safety, but most coal mines in the production areas are operating normally, and the coking coal output is still at a relatively high level. The actual transactions of Mongolian coal are limited, and the port inventory continues to accumulate, so the overall supply of coking coal is still loose. On the demand side, the coke output is showing signs of decline, and the coking enterprises' inventory pressure is increasing, and the coking profit is shrinking. During the price cut cycle, the coking enterprises' enthusiasm for replenishing raw material inventory decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal intensifies. The supply contraction of coking coal is limited, and the upstream inventory pressure continues to increase, so there is no driving force for a trend - like price increase [3]. - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by steel mills has been implemented, with a reduction of 70 - 75 yuan/ton this time, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. On the supply side, the output of some coking enterprises has slightly declined due to environmental protection and maintenance, but the overall coke output remains stable. The downstream steel mills' enthusiasm for replenishing inventory is weak, and the coking enterprises' coke inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, the hot metal production is declining from a high level, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, with an expectation of further decline in hot metal production. The upstream supply reduction is limited, the demand support is gradually weakening, and there is still room for the coke price to fall under the drag of cost [8][9]. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: On the cost side, the market is cautiously waiting, and the manganese ore price still shows signs of loosening. On the supply side, the production cost has been slightly repaired due to the abundant water period in Yunnan and the electricity price discount in Guangxi, and the supply in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan has slightly increased, but the manufacturers in Ningxia are still in the red, and their willingness to sell is limited. On the demand side, with the arrival of the off - season in the black market, the market sentiment is still cautious, and the downstream has a strong mentality of bargaining. The supply - demand of silicomanganese tends to be loose, and the manganese ore price is still expected to loosen. However, due to the cost - price inversion, the manufacturers' willingness to sell is low, and the futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term [5]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply has slightly increased. As the terminal steel use is about to enter the off - season, the downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, the market sentiment remains cautious, and the cost may still be a drag. The future market should focus on steel procurement and production conditions, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [5]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: In the off - season, the demand is declining, the deep - processing demand is still weak year - on - year, and the spot price is falling. On the supply side, there are expectations of both cold repair and ignition, and there are still 6 production lines waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure still exists. The upstream inventory has increased significantly, the mid - stream inventory has decreased, and there are rumors disturbing the supply side, but the actual impact is limited. The coal price is also expected to loosen, and the sentiment fluctuates repeatedly. The futures price is at a discount to the spot price, but the price cut of Hubei spot has led the futures price down. The short - term view is oscillating weakly [5][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, the maintenance is gradually resuming. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long run, the price center will continue to decline [5][11]. Other Products - **Steel**: The demand for the five major steel products has weakened this week, with a significant decline in rebar demand. The hot metal production is at a high level, and the steel output has not decreased much, but the hot metal production may have reached its peak. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have weakened this week, but the inventory is still decreasing. The price of the steel futures market is mainly suppressed by the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. With the resumption of Sino - US negotiations, the macro - fluctuations are magnified, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The scrap steel resources are tight, but the market is pessimistic about the off - season demand. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. It is expected that the future price will oscillate following the finished products [7].

Report Title - The report is titled "Commodities Rise More Than Fall, Aluminum Alloy and Silver Perform Strongly — CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250611" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff policies have negatively impacted US imports and factory orders. The US economy shows signs of weakness, but the May non - farm payrolls and wage data have boosted market confidence. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [7] - Domestic macro: Policies remain stable, and short - term focus is on using existing resources. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "re - export rush" and the July Politburo meeting [7] - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Bonds are worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities are range - bound in the short term, and low - valuation and policy - driven opportunities should be noted [7] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - Overseas: The negative impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders is emerging. The May ISM manufacturing and service PMIs are below expectations. The April trade deficit decreased, and factory orders declined more than expected. The latest economic data is mixed, and the Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged in June [7] - Domestic: Policies maintain stability, and short - term focus is on using existing resources. Manufacturing profits are resilient, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "re - export rush" and the July Politburo meeting [7] - Asset views: Overseas, there is more hedging and volatility; in China, it is a structured market. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold's short - term adjustment may narrow, and bonds are worth allocating after capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities are range - bound, and low - valuation and policy - driven opportunities should be noted [7] 2. View Highlights Macro - Overseas: The stagflation trade is cooling, with a flattened inflation expectation structure and improved economic growth expectations [8] - Domestic: There may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal policies are being implemented [8] Financial - Stocks: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the un - released micro - cap risks [8] - Bonds: The short - end may be relatively strong [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Short - term adjustment continues due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [8] Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [8] Black Building Materials - Steel: The fundamentals have limited contradictions, mainly driven by raw materials [8] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments are increasing, and port inventories are stable [8] - Coke: Three rounds of price cuts have been implemented, and the bearish expectation remains [8] - Coking coal: Market transactions are light, and upstream inventories are high [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The price is high due to a weak US dollar [8] - Aluminum: The price is high due to Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies [8] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure continues, and the market is affected by macro and geopolitical factors [10] - LPG: The rebound space may be limited due to weak demand [10] - Asphalt: The futures price is falling [10] Agriculture - Livestock: The market sentiment is boosted by pork purchases [10] - Cotton: The fundamentals change little, and the macro - environment is positive [10]