Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an overall "oscillating" rating to the black building materials sector [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the black market rose to a high level driven by macro factors, the market became extremely sensitive. Following the exchange's position - limit notice last Friday, the market sentiment took a sharp turn overnight, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. As the outcome of important meetings remains uncertain, funds tend to take a risk - averse approach. The fundamental situation in the industry has changed little, and no obvious turnaround has been observed in the terminal sector. After a large - scale replenishment in the middle reaches, a continuous price decline may lead to significant sales by traders, amplifying the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and in the long term, the overall trading should be bearish as the focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] - The volatility of the black market has increased recently, and there may still be macro - level disturbances in the future. The key factors to watch are the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the inventory at 45 ports of iron ore has slightly decreased. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - After the exchange adjusted the trading limit of the JM2509 contract last Friday, the market sentiment quickly cooled down, and the coking coal futures hit the daily limit across the board. There are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been above 1,000 trucks in recent days, remaining at a high level. Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders have become more cautious, and the auction results have been mediocre. After three rounds of price increases for coke, the coking profit is still under pressure. Coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Given the current tight supply - demand structure of coke and the pressure on coking profit, the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Alloys - Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3][6] Glass - After the glass futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been shut down for cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. The long - term over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory locked in the positive spread is large, and the delivery pressure is high. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, while in the long term, the price center will still decline [6] Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the exchange adjusted the coking coal trading limit, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures prices fell from a high level. The spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with only a small amount of speculative and rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly accumulated; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. In the future, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation for steel, but due to the low inventory level, the fundamental pressure is limited. The futures prices are easily affected by market sentiment and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The arrivals at ports have decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has significantly increased, and the spot price has risen. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable, with an increase in rebar production, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand this week. On the supply side, the arrival volume has increased significantly. On the demand side, the profits of electric arc furnaces during off - peak hours have improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. The inventory in steel mills has slightly decreased. The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and there are no prominent fundamental contradictions. After Shagang raised its price, the spot price has followed suit. However, as the steel price has declined, scrap steel itself lacks upward - driving force and is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: The spot market has initiated a fourth - round price increase, and the futures followed coking coal to hit the daily limit. After three rounds of price increases, the coking profit is still under pressure, and coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Meanwhile, the supply of coke is still affected by environmental protection and maintenance. On the demand side, although the molten iron output has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, it remains at a high level, and there is still rigid demand. The downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. The inventory of coke producers has continuously decreased. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal**: There are continuous disturbances in coal mine supply, and the market enthusiasm remains high. In the futures market, there are strong expectations for the coal supply - side reform, and the positive market sentiment persists. In the spot market, the prices of coking coal have increased. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been around 1,000 trucks in recent days, and the port transactions are good. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Recently, downstream enterprises and traders have been actively purchasing, resulting in a significant reduction in coal mine inventory. Currently, the fundamental supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and the key factors to watch are regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, coking coal still has upward potential due to market sentiment [11] - **Glass**: The speculative sentiment has declined, and the inventory in the middle reaches has significantly increased. The demand in the off - season has decreased, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have declined on a month - on - month basis. After the futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13] - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices have rapidly declined. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although the production has decreased due to a pipeline problem at Jinshan No. 3 Plant today, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - purchase level, and the demand has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered, but the overall demand in the downstream is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. The long - term over - supply situation is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory in the middle reaches is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, resulting in large delivery pressure. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and with the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, while in the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [14] - **Silicon Manganese**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The downstream demand for manganese - silicon remains resilient, but as the profit - repair environment promotes the resumption of production by manufacturers, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the ferrosilicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, the overall sentiment is acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. On the supply side, the industry's profit has improved significantly, and manufacturers are more motivated to resume production, so the output is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector. However, the supply - demand gap may narrow in the future, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; sentiment against involution picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again [2][4][11] - The top three gainers were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass, while the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and live hog [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 24, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, anti - involution sentiment picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 8.0% with 13.0% month - on - month open interest increase), lithium carbonate (up 7.2% with 20.6% month - on - month open interest increase), and glass (up 6.9% with 6.9% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 2.6% with 4.8% month - on - month open interest drop), soybean meal (down 2.3% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and live hog (down 2.2% with 7.2% month - on - month open interest down) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Synthetic Rubber - On July 24, synthetic rubber increased by 2.4% to 11875 yuan/ton, remaining range - bound. It is mainly driven by macro factors, and it may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. There are no major fundamental changes, and with improved market expectations and better butadiene transactions, the short - term price center may rise [17][18][19] 1.2.2 TSR 20 - On July 24, TSR 20 increased by 2.3% to 12775 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 1.5% to 15005 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are likely to rise following the overall commodity sentiment. Driven by the anti - involution theme and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's press conference, market bullish sentiment is strengthened. Rubber fundamentals have no major short - term contradictions. Supply is limited due to rainy seasons in Asian producing areas, and demand is relatively stable. In the third quarter, there may be destocking transactions, and if the macro sentiment remains, rubber prices may rise further [24][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Rapeseed Meal - On July 24, rapeseed meal decreased by 2.6% to 2682 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.3% to 3025 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal outperform U.S. soybeans, and the basis is expected to run weakly. Domestically, soybean meal inventories accumulate. Internationally, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68%, and there is a risk of less precipitation in the producing areas. Sino - U.S. trade frictions affect U.S. soybean exports. Protein meal futures face short - term adjustment risks but are expected to run strongly in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of July 24, President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing the importance of China - EU relations. Premier Li Qiang will attend the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High - Level Meeting on Global AI Governance on July 26. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation opened the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comments)" for public comments [37][38][40] 2.2 Industry News - According to SWIFT, in June, the RMB ranked as the world's sixth most active payment currency with a 2.88% share, and with euro - area - outside international payments as the statistical caliber, it ranked sixth with a 2.12% share [40]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry remain healthy with no signs of weakening. Driven by macro - expectations, the futures market has risen, and the strong willingness of mid - stream enterprises to replenish inventory has led to a simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Thread steel apparent demand reached 2.1658 million tons (+104,100 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 3.1524 million tons (-85,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.86%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons (-19,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [74]. Supply - Thread steel production was 2.1196 million tons (+29,000 tons), a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 3.7749 million tons (-36,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.14%. The production of the five major steel products was 8.6697 million tons (-12,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.14% [74]. Inventory - Thread steel inventory was 5.3864 million tons (-46,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4516 million tons (+22,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The inventory of the five major steel products was 13.365 million tons (-11,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.09% [74]. Product - specific Situation - **Thread steel**: The futures market rally has stimulated downstream inventory replenishment, leading to a significant increase in apparent demand. With the improvement of EAF profits, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline [3]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Apparent demand has seasonally declined, remaining at a normal level compared to the same period in previous years, with a year - on - year decrease and a slight increase in inventory [3]. - **Medium and heavy plates and other products**: Supply and demand have remained strong, and the inventory of the five major steel products has continued to decline [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6] Core View of the Report - Macro - level positive factors are frequent, but black commodities show differentiated performance. The market sentiment has become cautious after continuous sharp rises since July. The draft amendment to the price law is favorable for bulk commodities. In the industrial aspect, due to concentrated replenishment in the mid - stream, spot resources are tight, but there is no obvious turnaround in the terminal sector, and negative factors may be reflected in the steel inventory accumulation pressure during the off - peak to peak season transition [1]. - Overall, with continuous macro - level positives, the continuous rally in the futures market stimulates mid - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash operations to build positions, forming a positive feedback in the industrial chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. There are limited negative fundamental drivers, and continued upward movement requires new drivers. It is expected that the price will oscillate [2]. Carbon Element - Market expectations for "anti - involution" in the coal industry have deepened. Some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, but there are still disruptions in domestic coal supply. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke producers still face losses. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [2]. Alloys - As coke enters the price - increase cycle, it strengthens the cost support for ferromanganese - silicon. The market sentiment is positive, port ore traders are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of ferromanganese - silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. It is expected that the short - term futures price will follow the overall trend of the sector [3]. Glass - During the off - season, demand is declining, and deep - processing demand has decreased month - on - month. The current good sales - to - production ratio may be due to speculative purchases. There are 2 production lines yet to start producing glass and 1 line for cold - repair, and the daily melting capacity is expected to remain stable. Real - world demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of inventory replenishment and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the market is expected to oscillate [3][6]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures market. After the positive feedback, a large amount of inventory is locked in by futures - cash operations, resulting in significant delivery pressure. In the short term, prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall, and in the long term, the price center will decline [6]. Steel - The "anti - involution" sentiment is high, and the draft amendment to the price law is favorable. After the continuous rally in the futures market, market transactions have improved, but the increase in spot prices has slowed down. This week, the supply and demand of five major steel products have both decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. The inventory level is at a relatively low position in history, and the fundamental contradictions during the off - season are not obvious. In the off - season, with strong support from furnace materials under the background of high iron - making water production and high "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures market is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [8]. Iron Ore - Port transactions have increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased as expected. Steel mills' profitability has increased significantly, and iron - making water production has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting ore demand. The inventory at 45 ports is stable, with an increase in berthing vessels and a slight increase in total inventory. Ore demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and there are limited negative fundamental drivers. Continued upward movement requires new drivers, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume has slightly decreased, and steel mills' daily consumption has increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable. On the supply side, the arrival volume has decreased this week, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the profit of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours has improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steel production has increased. The factory inventory has slightly decreased. Scrap steel demand is high, resources are tight, but there is a lack of independent driving factors, and it is expected that the price will follow the trend of finished steel products [9]. Coke - On the futures side, the main contract is oscillating with a slight upward trend; on the现货 side, prices have increased. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers still face losses, and a third round of price increases is on the way. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. Futures are at a significant premium, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies. Coke inventories at coke producers are continuously decreasing. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and price increases are accelerating. Coke demand is strong, cost support is strengthening, and it is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate with a slight upward trend [9][11]. Coking Coal - On the futures side, there are strong expectations for coal supply - side reform, and the market sentiment is positive. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production in the producing areas, and supply is restricted. On the import side, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is around 1,000 trucks, and port transactions are good. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream and traders are actively purchasing, and coal mine inventories are significantly decreasing. In the short term, under the influence of market sentiment, coking coal still has upward potential [12]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The futures price of ferromanganese - silicon is oscillating. On the cost side, coke price increases strengthen cost support, and manganese ore prices are stable. On the supply side, the daily output has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved, with an increased drive for resumption of production. On the demand side, steel mills have good profit conditions, and the output of finished steel products remains high. The short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [16]. Ferrosilicon - The futures price of ferrosilicon is weak. On the supply side, manufacturers' resumption of production is accelerating. On the demand side, steel production remains at a high level, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steel - making is resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the sector [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific derivatives: - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [6]. - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [7]. - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with caution" [8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures: The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 3,600 points, with sector opportunities spreading. Anti - involution varieties in the commodity market are active, triggering expectations of accelerated policy implementation before the Politburo meeting. More attention is paid to the implementation of measures to expand domestic demand. Before the meeting, a relatively positive attitude is maintained, and elastic growth varieties are preferred [1][6]. - Stock index options: The trading volume was 6.69 billion yuan, and liquidity remained high. The call trading ratio decreased, and the bullish speculation weakened, but market sentiment was still relatively optimistic. Short - term bull spreads can be continued, and medium - term covered calls can be appropriately increased [1][6][7]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Risk preference increase and the stock - bond seesaw continue to suppress the bond market. Capital fluctuations may also have a negative impact. The bond market should remain cautious in the short term, especially the long - end, and long - end short hedging operations can be appropriately considered [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market data: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the total positions also changed. The market showed a general upward trend, with trading volume close to 2 trillion yuan [6]. - Logic: Anti - involution policies are important, but demand expansion is a prerequisite for their effectiveness. Before the meeting, a positive attitude is maintained, and elastic growth varieties are preferred [6]. - Operation suggestion: Hold IM [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Market data: The trading volume was 6.69 billion yuan, and liquidity remained high. The call trading ratio decreased, and the skewness of each variety was low [6][7]. - Logic: The underlying market rose, and small and medium - cap stocks were dominant again. The volatility of most varieties decreased, and the short - term value of selling options reappeared [7]. - Operation suggestion: Continue to hold bull spreads in the short term and appropriately increase medium - term covered calls [7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Market data: The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts changed. The central bank conducted 33.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 45.05 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing [7]. - Logic: The bond market continued to be weak, with risk preference increase and the stock - bond seesaw effect suppressing the bond market. Capital fluctuations also had a negative impact [7][8]. - Operation suggestion: Adopt a cautious attitude in trend strategies. Pay attention to short hedging at low basis levels, basis widening, and curve steepening [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan prime rates in July 2025 remained unchanged. The year - on - year growth rate of China's total social electricity consumption in June was 5.4% [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Finance: The central budgetary investment in 2025 has been basically allocated, focusing on multiple fields [10]. - Exchange rate: In June 2025, the RMB ranked sixth in the global payment currency ranking, with a payment amount increase of 2.57% compared to May [11]. - Takeout: At the takeout industry development meeting, merchants expressed concerns about price wars, declining customer unit prices, and reduced income [11]. - Funds: The second batch of 12 new floating - rate fund products have been registered by the CSRC and will be launched soon [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of the stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures markets but does not provide specific monitoring data content in the given text.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Gold prices continued to decline on Wednesday, affected by the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields, and then rebounded slightly after the release of weak US new home sales data. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the further decline of gold prices [3]. - The US economic fundamentals are mixed. The manufacturing and service industries in the US are developing differently in July, with manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations and service PMI exceeding expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was better than expected, while new home sales in June were lower than market expectations. The European Central Bank maintained the main interest rate at 2% as expected [6]. - In the long - term, gold is still bullish due to the risks in the tariff, geopolitical and monetary systems in 2025. However, the short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. For silver, it is expected to remain strong in the medium - to - long - term based on the bullish outlook for gold, and the current domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity [6]. 3) Summary by Related Content Key Information - China - EU relations are at a critical historical juncture, with more cooperation than competition. The EU is close to reaching a trade solution with the US, and has approved counter - tariff measures on $109 billion of US goods in case of negotiation breakdown [2]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged after eight consecutive interest rate cuts in a year, waiting for more clear signals on the EU - US trade relationship [2]. - The US economic data shows that in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), the number of initial jobless claims in the week of July 19 was 217,000 (expected 226,000, previous 221,000), and new home sales in June were 627,000 (expected 650,000, previous 623,000) [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices fell to around $3,360 per ounce, mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields. The improvement of market risk appetite weakened the safe - haven demand for gold, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the weak dollar limited the decline [3]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real - estate data, the Fed's interest - rate expectations and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range is expected to be between $3,250 and $3,450 [7].

2025年07月25日 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | | 从业资格号 F03100815 | | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | | 硅锰 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-18 | 坪比 | 硅铁 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-18 | 环比 | | 日均产量(吨/天) | 26640 | 26120 | 520 | 日均产量(吨/天) | 14615 | 14285 | 330 | | 周度开工率(%) | 41. 58 | 40. 53 | 1. 05 | 周度开工率(%) | 33. 33 | 32. 45 | 0. 88 | ...

日限公司 焦煤周度数据 2025年07月25日 | 研究员: | | --- | | 关事 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-16 | 坪比 | | 煤矿原煤库存 | 山西 | 54. 66 | 66. 58 | -11. 92 | | | 河北 | 52. 03 | 54. 69 | -2. 66 | | | 山东 | 81.6 | 91. 63 | -10. 03 | | | 专国 | 208. 89 | 236. 4 | -27. 51 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-23 | 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillation", "oscillation with a downward bias", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of specific products [9][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strength of coal has ignited the energy - chemical chain, with low - inventory EG being the most prominent. The EU - US trade negotiation prospects affect overseas financial markets. The crude oil market is supported by low inventories in Europe and the US, and the overall profit of the chemical industry is expanding [2][3]. - The overall outlook for energy and chemicals is a strong - side oscillation. It is advisable for investors to participate with light positions and consider a hedging strategy of going long on coal - chemical products and short on oil - chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: The relaxation of US petroleum - related licenses for Venezuela may increase supply pressure. Although global on - land crude oil inventories are rising, the high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries and the strong profit stage continue, and the short - term improvement in demand expectations also supports oil prices. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high operating rates of domestic and foreign refineries and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure form a balance, resulting in oil price oscillation [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot price continues to fall, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates around 3600. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase in August and September will increase heavy - oil supply, and the supply pressure at the raw material end will put pressure on the asphalt futures price. The demand side has a high valuation compared to other products, and the current foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price still faces great downward pressure. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase, the decline in natural gas prices, and the release of high - sulfur fuel oil spot liquidity all contribute to the downward pressure. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [10][11]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Although it has some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, its current valuation is low. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates with crude oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The strength of coal prices supports the upward movement of methanol. The supply in China may shrink, and the port inventory has decreased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [23][24]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fades, the market returns to fundamentals, and it declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. Although the price has risen recently, the downstream purchasing is cautious. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the context of a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern [24][25]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Cost support becomes the new driving force. - **Main Logic**: The continuous strength of coal prices supports the rise of coal - chemical products. Although overseas devices are restarting and port inventories are slightly increasing, the driving force for the rise has switched to cost. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract may remain strong for a longer time than previously expected [19][21]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Driven by enthusiastic sentiment and cost rebound. - **Main Logic**: The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the cost of PX. The supply side is affected by maintenance, and the demand side is stable. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [14]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the market atmosphere is enthusiastic, and the supply is expected to shrink in August. - **Main Logic**: Cost provides strong support, and the announced maintenance plans of large manufacturers in August are expected to reduce supply. The polyester load has moderately increased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: With the improvement of the macro - environment, downstream speculative stocking leads to inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream polyester raw materials and the "anti - involution" initiative, the downstream has stocking behavior, which promotes inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [21]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: Polyester raw materials are strong, and the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream costs, the price oscillates upwards, but the processing fee is compressed due to the strength of raw materials. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has a lower - bound support, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [22]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides four - fold boosts. Although the supply side has an increasing trend, the demand side is weak. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27][28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The spot support is limited, but the macro - environment dominates the market, and it may oscillate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The short - term weakness of oil prices makes the spot price weak. As a new variety, there is significant capital game behavior. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [28]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the macro - environment, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides multiple boosts. Although the supply side has pressure, the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may affect imports, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The risk of a short - squeeze in styrene has been eliminated, and the Q3 balance sheet of pure benzene has improved. Although the explicit and implicit inventories are high, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Outlook**: The Q3 fundamentals improve, and the spot may oscillate strongly, but the amplitude is limited by high inventories [16][17]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may support the cost, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The improvement of the pure - benzene fundamentals has no obvious negative impact on styrene. After the price drops rapidly, styrene is expected to rebound. - **Outlook**: Supported by macro - policies, it is expected to oscillate strongly this week [17][18]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: The positive factors in the domestic petrochemical industry boost market sentiment. Although the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure, the cost is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: It is cautiously optimistic in the short term, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - and long - term [30]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, with a weak rebound. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached the peak. Although the demand from the alumina industry is increasing, the overall supply is still high. - **Outlook**: The positive policy expectation promotes the rebound of the caustic - soda market, and long positions can take profits at high levels to avoid risks [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [34]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [35]. The report also provides some data monitoring for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided in this summary.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [12][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution hype continues, and the rising lithium price leads the new energy metals. The contraction expectation of the supply side and the cost increase expectation are strengthened. Lithium price is in the leading position, and one can bet on potential lithium price increases through options. The polysilicon price may slow down after a rapid rise [2]. - For industrial silicon, the "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, and the coal price increase supports the cost. The spot price is rising, and the silicon price shows a short - term upward - biased oscillation [8]. - For polysilicon, the anti - involution policy boosts the price significantly, but attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy fails to meet expectations, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [11]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of July 24, the prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 10,100 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively. As of July 18, the domestic inventory was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8%. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. In June, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply shows a pattern of "decrease in the north and increase in the south". The large factories in the northwest continue to reduce production, supporting the silicon price. The demand is still weak year - on - year, but there are short - term marginal improvement signals. The inventory has changed from destocking to slight accumulation. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [7]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, and the coal price increase supports the cost. The silicon price shows a short - term upward - biased oscillation, but risks of price adjustment due to sentiment decline and supply recovery should be guarded against [8]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.2%. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 3,020 lots, an increase of 240 lots from the previous value. In May, the export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,167.32 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.68%. In May, the import volume was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.72%. From January to June, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107% [8]. - **Main Logic**: Since July, there have been many supply - side news in the silicon industry chain. The price of polysilicon has risen significantly. The southwest production capacity has increased with the arrival of the wet season. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The supply - demand situation still has pressure, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [11]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy boosts the polysilicon price, but if the policy fails to meet expectations, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On July 24, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 10.52% to 76,680 yuan. The total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 124,830 lots to 816,142 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 70,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 68,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 795 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 70,000 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 900 tons to 11,654 tons [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand drive is weakening, and the price is affected by market sentiment. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the warehouse receipt inventory has been rapidly decreasing. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the price is likely to rise [12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation [12].