1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc is rated as "Potential" with a strategy of "Long SHFE, Short LME" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the forex market, the overall monetary policy will remain accommodative due to the persistently weak labor market. The USD index is expected to range between 95 - 102 in 2026, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend with a range of 6.8 - 7.2, indicating limited depreciation space and opportunities for appreciation [6] - For zinc, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, domestic inventory pressure has eased, and LME zinc inventory is gradually increasing. It is recommended to roll - participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of gold fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference also fluctuated. This week, the gold price is expected to rise oscillatingly, the internal - external price difference valuation is neutral, and there is a lack of short - term drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of silver fell and then rebounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference oscillated and declined. This week, the short - squeeze trading of silver has eased, the risk of high - level price fluctuations has increased, and there is a lack of price difference drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [19] 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, LME copper inventory increased, and the copper import window remained in a loss state. The cross - market strategy is recommended to wait and see [25] - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots started to accumulate, LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and the short - term internal - external ratio oscillated within a range. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [30] - **Zinc**: Currently, the domestic zinc ingot export window is open, domestic zinc ingot social inventory is decreasing, and LME zinc inventory is rising. It is recommended to roll - participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [36] - **Lead**: Last week, many domestic primary and secondary lead smelters were under maintenance, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises remained high, domestic lead ingot social inventory remained low, LME lead inventory accumulated again, and the domestic lead ingot import window opened. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [42] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window was closed, the price difference extreme situation improved significantly, and cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [48] - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin increased, the tin spot import window remained closed, the import loss was 15,206 yuan/ton, and the driving force for the tin price difference was not obvious. Cross - market arbitrage should wait and see [52] 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price difference of iron ore oscillated within a narrow range without obvious drivers. It is recommended to wait and see [56] 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price difference oscillated. Due to the stability of Middle - East crude oil spot, high - volatility freight, and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see [60] - **Natural Gas**: Last week, the price difference (TFU - HH) rebounded slightly. The cold - wave trading ended, US production continued to rise, exports temporarily declined, and prices fell back; import costs supported European gas prices to stop falling. In the future, the US temperature is expected to be warmer, and the US dry gas production has reached a high level. The European price is approaching the import cost, and the bottom is strengthening. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing after the rebound [95] 3.5 Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom. Due to the slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans showed a weak downward trend, which promoted the further recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [66] - **Sugar**: Last week, the internal - external price difference increased slightly. As the year - end approached, the marginal import volume decreased, and the driving force for the convergence of the internal - external price difference was weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [69] - **Natural Rubber**: Last week, there was little change, and the price difference remained in the non - arbitrage range. Globally, it is gradually entering the tapping season, with an expected increase in supply, but no improvement on the demand side. It is recommended to wait and see [78] 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the negative impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December has been digested by the market. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairman and the strengthening of gold and silver prices, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper may rise. The market also expects a high probability of the US imposing tariffs on copper, so the downward space of the price difference is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [79] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS oscillated. Due to the weak operation of Middle - East crude oil spot, the resilience of US production, and limited short - term guidance, it is recommended to wait and see [84] - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price difference oscillated. With the US refinery operating rate returning to a high level, the pressure of refined oil inventory increasing year - on - year, and stable crude oil production, the price difference driver is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [90] - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: As mentioned above, after the cold - wave trading ended, the price difference rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing after the rebound [95]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of nickel shows no obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply and demand in December 2025 are expected to remain loose. LME inventory stays at a high level, suppressing nickel prices. The actual improvement in supply and demand may only be reflected from the second quarter of 2026. Nickel prices are expected to be weak overall, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and caution when chasing short positions. Attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 16, 2025, Shanghai nickel prices dropped by more than 2.4%, breaking through the low of 12,100 yuan/ton. The sharp decline was mainly due to high inventory pressure. LME inventory has remained above 250,000 tons for about two months, and both LME inventory and Shanghai nickel orders increased again. The fundamental surplus indicates a further growth trend in inventory. Nornickel raised its nickel supply forecast for 2025 to 240,000 tons and for 2026 to 275,000 tons [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: In November 2025, the domestic electrolytic nickel production decreased by about 28% month - on - month to 26,800 tons, showing a significant marginal narrowing, but it was not enough to improve the fundamental surplus. In November, the production of MHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia all increased year - on - year, and the overall supply pressure of nickel remained. - Demand side: Entering the traditional consumption off - season, the spot market trading weakened after the previous phased replenishment. Stainless steel production decreased month - on - month, and the demand for electrolytic nickel and alloys is also expected to decline. China's implementation of stainless steel export license management may lead to a "rush to export" in the short term but may also overdraft exports in January 2026, causing a phased decline or slowdown in exports at the beginning of 2026. The overall fundamental surplus persists, with LME inventory increasing by 860 tons to 253,400 tons and Shanghai nickel inventory increasing by 2,622 tons to 37,900 tons, which suppresses nickel prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - The current fundamental situation of nickel shows no obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply and demand in December are expected to remain loose. LME inventory stays at a high level, suppressing prices. There are many supply - side interference policies in resource - producing countries, and the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia needs to be continuously tracked. The market expects a slight decline in the quota. The actual improvement in supply and demand may only be reflected from the second quarter of 2026. Nickel prices are expected to be weak overall, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds and caution when chasing short positions. Attention should be paid to the progress of the RKAB quota in Indonesia [4]

打节 | 【公司 库存高位压制 镍价破位下行 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 研究员: 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 投资咨询号:Z0016667 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 投资咨询号:Z0021455 投资咨询号:Z0022534 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 最新动态及原因 2025年12月16日，沪银大幅下跌超2.4%。盘中一度跌破1.21万/吨的低位。辖破位下跌主要受到库存高位压制，LME库存已于25万吨以上维持约2个月。且昨日LME库存和沪接食单均再 度出现一定程度的累积。基本面过剩下库存仍有进一步增长趋势。此外，据金十数据12月15日讯，Nornickel周一表示已将今年银供应该测预测上调一倍至24万吨，并将26年预测从13万吨上调 至27.5万吨。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应端，国内电镜 11月产量环比大减约28%至2.68万吨。 出现较为阴显边际收窄， 但尚不足以有效改善基本面过剩，同时印尼11月MHP、冰银和银钱产量均维持同比增长、整 体银供给端压力仍存。需求端进入传统消费淡季，现货市场在前期完成阶段性补货后成交有所走弱，不锈钢排产环比逐步走弱，电银和合 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - Gold price is approaching its previous high of $4381 as the non-farm payroll data is imminent. The short-term focus of the gold price is on the marginal changes in the non-farm payroll data, the US dollar, and interest rates, while it still has upward momentum in the medium term [1]. - The short-term pricing of gold focuses on the marginal changes in the non-farm payroll data, the US dollar, and interest rates, and the medium-term logic remains bullish. If the non-farm payroll data continues to confirm the weakening of the labor market, the upward space for the gold price is expected to open up again; if the data is temporarily strong, the gold price may fluctuate at a high level, but the callback space is expected to be limited. The medium-term direction of silver is still the same as that of gold, but it is more sensitive to the US dollar rebound and changes in risk appetite. It is expected to show high-level fluctuations and increased volatility in the short term, and may have a repair demand relative to gold [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Ukrainian President Zelensky held a five-hour meeting with a US envoy in Berlin on Sunday to seek an end to the war with Russia and proposed the goal of giving up joining NATO. The negotiations are expected to continue on Monday [2]. - US President Trump said he prefers former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh or National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to lead the Fed next year [2]. - A closely watched survey released by the Bank of Japan on Monday showed that the business sentiment index of large Japanese manufacturers reached a four-year high in the three months ended December, indicating that the Japanese economy has withstood the impact of US tariff hikes [2]. Price Logic - Gold: After the FOMC cut interest rates as expected in December, the overall tone of the meeting was dovish. The growth outlook was revised upward, the inflation path was revised downward, and sufficient reserves were maintained through short-term Treasury bond purchases. The liquidity environment still supports gold. Powell emphasized the continuous weakening of employment, so the market's expectation of subsequent easing has not completely subsided. At the same time, the "explicit + implicit" divergence within the Fed has increased, and the uncertainty of the Fed's independence has introduced a structural risk premium into the US dollar credit pricing [3]. - Silver: On the premise that the expectation of loose liquidity has not been falsified, the medium-term direction is still the same as that of gold. However, due to the large previous increase and crowded positions, it is more sensitive to the US dollar rebound and changes in risk appetite. The spot structure is still tight, but it is difficult to drive a trend market alone. In the short term, it mainly shows high-level fluctuations and increased volatility, and may have a repair demand relative to gold [3]. Outlook - In the short term, the focus range for London gold is [4150, 4500] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [55, 65] US dollars per ounce [3]. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: Not provided with specific data - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2258.84, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2585.31, unchanged; the industrial products index is 2184.69, up 0.24%; the PPI commodity index is 1354.37, down 0.35% [46]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on December 15, 2025, is 3669.23, up 0.69% today, up 4.97% in the past 5 days, up 10.87% in the past month, and up 65.85% since the beginning of the year [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The global styrene operating rate is at a low level. As of December 15, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 71.8%, up 0.6 pct month - on - month and down 7.6 pct year - on - year, at the lowest level in the past six years [3] - The domestic styrene operating rate has slightly decreased. As of December 11, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 68.11%, down 0.74 pct month - on - month and down 4.4 pct year - on - year. The weekly output decreased by 0.36 tons [3] - The overseas styrene operating rate has increased. As of December 15, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 75.6%, up 2.0 pct month - on - month and down 8.9 pct year - on - year, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Domestic Styrene - As of December 11, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 68.11%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 4.4 pct. The weekly output was 33.88 tons, a decrease of 0.36 tons from the previous period. One unit in the Northeast stopped, and one unit each in the Northeast, Shandong, and South China adjusted their loads, resulting in a slight decrease in overall output [3] Overseas Styrene - As of December 15, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 75.6%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.0 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 8.9 pct. The 550,000 - ton styrene unit of Singapore's GAPGC (formerly Shell) restarted in December after an extended shutdown due to cracking maintenance. The US Westlake Chemical plans to shut down its PVC and styrene facilities, involving 260,000 tons of styrene production capacity, and the shutdown will be completed in December 2025 [3] Global Styrene - As of December 15, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 71.8%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 7.6 pct, at the lowest level in the past six years [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's apparent oil demand in November increased by 4.53% year - on - year, and from January to November, it increased by 3.32% year - on - year. However, global supply growth far exceeds demand, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined. The chemical industry is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, with investors advised to adopt a weak and volatile mindset [2][3]. - The energy - chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Inventory is continuously rising, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical premiums are constantly fluctuating due to the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela. OPEC +'s output trend is not obvious after a significant slowdown in the net quota growth rate in the fourth quarter, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Recently, oil prices have returned to near previous lows due to continuous inventory build - up and the decline of geopolitical premiums [8]. - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in the fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations may still fluctuate. It should be viewed as volatile [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The spot market is weak, and the asphalt futures price rose and then fell. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels, and the situation between the US and Venezuela has heated up again. The asphalt futures price rose and then fell, and the market is concerned about the progress of the US - Venezuela situation. After the futures pricing returns to the Shandong spot price, attention should be paid to the changes in the Shandong spot price [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price fell with the decline of oil prices. The demand outlook for high - sulfur fuel oil is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [10]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to fluctuate weakly. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure has increased significantly, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply has unexpectedly decreased [13]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and the lack of demand space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The unloading at coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply and demand in the inland areas provide support. Methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has regional differences, and the port social inventory is in the digestion stage. The inland enterprise inventory at a low level supports the price. The shipping situation in the Middle East has slowed down, and the unloading in coastal areas is likely to be less than expected, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [30]. - **Outlook**: It should be viewed as a short - term fluctuation and consolidation. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: The demand support is insufficient, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level on the supply side, and the support from factors such as off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export has weakened on the demand side. The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and some enterprises have lowered their quotes [31]. - **Outlook**: There is a lack of effective stimulating factors in the market, and the market sentiment is in a stalemate. The short - term market will maintain a weak and stable situation. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: The industry reduces production to resist, and the supply - demand structure has improved, but market expectations dominate reality. - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol rose and then fell. Although the supply - demand structure has improved slightly due to production reduction, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The short - term market is difficult to reverse the weakness, and the rebound space is limited [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - term price may bottom out under industry resistance, but the long - term inventory build - up pressure is still large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation at a low level. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: Due to the poor performance of costs in the short term, the increase is hindered. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has strengthened, and international oil prices and naphtha prices have fallen. Although the market has a strong overall expectation for PX, the increase is hindered due to the poor short - term cost performance. The PTA market has good negotiations, which supports the benefits of upstream PX [14][15]. - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. It is expected that PXN will be sorted out in the range of [260, 300]. PX maintains a positive spread logic. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is average, and PX's good supply - demand expectations prevent the cost from being further transmitted to the downstream. PTA's short - term supply and demand are stable, the basis is strong, and the near - month supply and demand are generally tight. The polyester load remains high, and some polyester factories make appropriate replenishments, resulting in good negotiations [15][16]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, and the processing fee will maintain range operation with limited expansion space. In the medium term, the TA05 contract can be bought on dips in the 4600 - 4700 range. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The cost support is acceptable, but the demand is average. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is acceptable recently, and the price of polyester short - fiber fluctuates upward following the cost. The demand is in the off - season and is gradually weakening. Currently, the inventory pressure of short - fiber is not large, and it generally fluctuates with raw materials [26][27]. - **Outlook**: The price of short - fiber will fluctuate with the upstream, and the support for the processing fee below is strengthened. The long - TA and short - PF positions should stop profit and leave the market. 3.1.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: The trading atmosphere declined after concentrated replenishment. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuated and rebounded, providing certain cost support for polyester bottle - chips. After concentrated replenishment last week, the price of bottle - chips rose slightly, and the trading atmosphere declined. The short - term price mainly follows the raw materials for sorting [28]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee below is strengthened. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and there is an expectation of PDH production reduction. PL rebounds cautiously. - **Main Logic**: The PDH production reduction expectation still provides some support. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the quotes are generally stable. The downstream buying is cautious, and the actual transaction premium is rare. The short - term powder profit is still under pressure, and the low - start - up situation still has a drag [35]. - **Outlook**: PL will fluctuate in the short term. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Supported by the expectation of PDH production reduction, PP fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under short - term pressure, and the valuation support for gas - based production has increased. Oil prices are fluctuating, and geopolitical premiums are constantly fluctuating. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure, and the downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing mentality [34][35]. - **Outlook**: PP will fluctuate in the short term. 3.1.14 Plastic (LLDPE) - **View**: The trading volume has increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. Plastic fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the futures price has rebounded, mainly driven by PP. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the geopolitical premium is constantly fluctuating. The fundamental support for plastic itself is still limited, and the supply reduction expectation is weaker than that of PP. The demand for plastic is gradually entering the off - season, and the sustainability of the price increase is still questionable [34]. - **Outlook**: It will be weakly volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: Both upward and downward movements are restricted, and styrene fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the support from crude oil and the cost side is insufficient, which drags down the styrene price. The supply - demand of styrene itself is in a tight - balance state, which provides support for the price, but there is insufficient upward driving force. There is an expectation of further inventory reduction in December, but the release of liquidity will suppress the upside. Seasonal inventory build - up will start in January [21][22]. - **Outlook**: It will be slightly stronger and volatile. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: The expectation of oversupply still exists, and PVC fluctuates at a low level. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the boost from the "anti - involution" sentiment to low - valuation varieties may be short - term. At the micro level, the scale of production reduction of marginal enterprises is limited, and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply expectation. The downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the export order - signing is light [38]. - **Outlook**: Although the production reduction of marginal enterprises is small, the profit of PVC is poor, and the market will mainly wait and see, with cautious downward space. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda may fluctuate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the boost from the "anti - involution" sentiment to low - valuation varieties may be short - term. At the micro level, the decline in liquid chlorine prices has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and there is an expectation of production reduction, but the actual production reduction has not been implemented. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor [40]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are under pressure, but the profit is poor. The market will mainly wait and see, with cautious downward space. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is given, including the latest values, change values, and the number of warehouse receipts [43]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are presented, including the latest values and change values [44]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring There is no specific content provided in the text for further summary. 3.3 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures is 2258.84, with an increase of 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2585.31, with no change; the industrial product index is 2184.69, with an increase of 0.24%; the PPI commodity index is 1354.37, with a decrease of 0.35% [284]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 15, 2025, is 1093.87, with a daily increase of 0.69%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.53%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.93%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.92% [285].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-16 股市⻛格防御化，债市超⻓端情绪偏弱 股指期货：配置⻛格防御化 股指期权：备兑防御为主 国债期货：超⻓端情绪仍偏弱 股指期货方面，配置风格防御化。周一主要宽基指数疲弱，仅红利指 数、微盘指数逆势上涨，科创50、恒生科技跌幅均在2%之上，盘面风格呈 现防御化的特征。行业方面，保险、农产品、商业贸易领涨，资金进入稳 定板块避险。盘面回撤与外盘弱势有一定关系，近期呈现一定的跟随效 应，但本质在于重要会议结束之后，市场进入事件空窗期，叠加年末临 近，资金博弈意愿下降，预计年末难出现系统性机会。在此氛围之下，仍 建议资金防御配置，以高股息、涨价链作为配置主线。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。昨日权益指数低开后冲高再回落。期 权方面，各个品种成交额加总大幅下降19.49%。情绪指标方面持仓量PCR 整体走弱，但相比于持仓量的震荡，成交量的变化则更为显著，且体现在 看涨、看跌期权的同步下行。期权加权隐含波动率平均回落0.96%，日内 隐波跟随行情走势，震荡幅度较为剧烈。整体结合交易缩量和隐波变化， 推测当前方向趋势型交易的投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has been fluctuating, and base metals may shift to a period of consolidation. In the short - to - medium term, concerns about supply disruptions continue to support prices. The positive tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to improve demand, which will boost base metals. However, high prices may suppress consumption, and the fluctuating expectation of Fed rate cuts may restrict further price increases. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are favored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **View**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [6][7]. - **Information Analysis**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in December. The CSPT decided to reduce the capacity load of mine - copper production by over 10% in 2026. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. On December 15, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper showed a premium, and the national copper inventory increased [6][7]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Supply disruptions in copper mines are increasing, and the CSPT's decision strengthens the expectation of supply contraction. Although the demand is in the off - season, the spot premium indicates that downstream acceptance of copper prices is rising. The increase in the premium of Chilean refined copper reflects the expectation of supply - demand tightness next year [7]. 3.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the spot prices of alumina in different regions showed different trends, and the alumina warehouse receipts decreased [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The current price difference between futures and spot is large, and the low futures price may drag down the spot price. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [8]. 3.3 Aluminum - **View**: Inventory has started to accumulate, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [11][12]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased. In November 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Some Indonesian aluminum plants are in the trial - operation or production stage [11]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, while overseas power shortages may tighten future supply. High aluminum prices have suppressed demand, and the inventory has started to accumulate. Overall, the short - term macro - expectation and fundamentals support aluminum prices to oscillate with an upward bias, and the price center may rise in the medium term [12]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the market is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [13]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the price difference between ADC12 and AOO aluminum changed. The registered warehouse receipts increased. In October, the import of scrap aluminum in China increased year - on - year, with Thailand being the main source [13]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate has decreased, and there are still risks of production cuts in the medium term. The year - end seasonal peak of automobile sales is approaching the end, and demand may weaken. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, the warehouse receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short and medium terms [13]. 3.5 Zinc - **View**: The export window has significantly narrowed, and zinc prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [14][16][17]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In September 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate exports decreased month - on - month but increased year - to - date [16]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - economic outlook is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee has declined, leading to a decrease in zinc ingot production. The opening of the export window has relieved the domestic supply pressure. However, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short term, zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level, and there is a downward risk in the long term [16][17]. 3.6 Lead - **View**: The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, and lead prices are oscillating. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [18][19]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries decreased, and the price of lead ingots decreased. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased. The recycling price of waste lead - acid batteries in some regions is stable, and the market activity has slightly improved [18]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable, and the futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. The price of waste batteries has decreased, and the smelting profit of recycled lead has slightly expanded. The production of lead ingots has decreased due to many smelter overhauls. The demand for lead - acid batteries is at a high level, but the increase in LME lead inventory will suppress the upside of lead prices [18][19]. 3.7 Nickel - **View**: The LME nickel inventory remains at a high level, and nickel prices are weak. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [19][21][22]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the LME nickel inventory and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased. Some Indonesian projects are in progress, and the expected price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is decreasing [19][20][21]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the overall supply - demand of nickel - related products is also loose. The high inventory of LME and Shanghai nickel futures suppresses nickel prices. There are many supply - side interference policies in major resource - producing countries, and the RKAB quota progress needs to be monitored [21][22]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Driven by the weakening of nickel prices, the stainless - steel market is oscillating downward. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [23]. - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium of stainless steel in Foshan was positive. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased [23]. - **Main Logic**: The cost support for stainless - steel prices has strengthened. The stainless - steel production decreased slightly in November and is expected to decline further in December. The social inventory has not accumulated significantly, but there is still pressure in the off - season. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [23]. 3.9 Tin - **View**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating with an upward bias [24][25]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The spot price of tin decreased [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: Supply - side issues are the core concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow, and the supply of refined tin in Indonesia and Africa is restricted. The supply of tin ore is tightening, and the processing fee is low, limiting the increase in refined tin production. The demand for tin is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries. Therefore, the supply - demand fundamentals support the upward movement of tin prices [25].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-16 棉花预期好转，价格持续上涨 油脂：关注下方技术支撑有效性 蛋白粕：交投清淡，双粕震荡偏弱 玉米/淀粉：盘面继续回调 生猪：终端需求有限，猪价低位震荡 天然橡胶：日内延续宽幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面维持偏强震荡 棉花：预期好转，棉价持续上涨 白糖：上方承压，下方短期有支撑 纸浆：期货盘面偏强震荡，现货情绪依旧疲弱 双胶纸：无明显矛盾，窄幅震荡 原木：估值较低，低位反弹 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 棉花观点：预期好转，棉价持续上涨 逻辑：供给端，25/26年度新疆棉花产量预计同比增加，累计公检量高于 往年同期，新棉持续上量，供应边际增加。需求端，随着"金九银十" 和"双十一"结束，订单季节性回落，随着近期棉价的持续反弹，需关注 下游采购接受程度的变化。库存端，棉花商业库存持续爬坡，但累库速度 不及预期，反推棉花消费较好，利多棉价。近期，市场对明年新疆因政策 导向使得棉花种植面积可能大幅下降的预期逐步增强，市场对棉花关注度 提高，资金进场推高棉价，种植预期产生的潜在利多提前在盘面反应。昨 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-12-16 政策扰动不断，盘⾯低位反弹 商务部、海关总署公布钢材出⼝管理新规，钢材出⼝预期转弱，但国 资委强调中央企业⾃觉抵制"内卷式"竞争，盘⾯低开⾼⾛。淡季深 ⼊需求转弱，螺纹钢基本⾯仍有韧性，热卷库存压⼒仍存，基本⾯难 ⾔亮点，预计盘⾯表现承压。冬储补库预期⽀撑下铁矿下⽅仍有⽀ 撑，下游补库⽀撑煤焦估值有望修复，供需过剩格局下限制玻纯上⽅ 空间。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本支撑虽较弱，但焦钢企业将逐渐开启原料 冬储补库，基本面矛盾不大，当前盘面估值过低，继续大幅下行驱动 不足，预计跟随焦煤震荡运行。随着年关将近，冬储逐步开启，焦煤 现货成交有望改善，基本面及市场情绪将逐渐修复，届时盘面估值或 将向上修复。 3. 合金方面：成本暂居高位对价格形成支撑，但市场供需宽松状态 难改、成本向下传导不畅、盘面上涨驱动不足，预计锰硅期价仍将跟 随板块的表现、以低位震荡运行为主。成本仍处高位支撑硅铁价格底 部，但市场供需双弱、去库难度仍存，需谨慎看待盘面的上方空间， 预计硅铁期价跟随板块低位震荡运行。 4. 玻璃纯碱：供应仍有扰动 ...