Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The passage of the temporary appropriation bill by the US Senate has boosted investors' optimism in the non - ferrous metals market. The macro - environment has repeated expectations but overall remains stable. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support base metal prices, and prices will continue to fluctuate. There are opportunities for aluminum ingot price increases and low - buying opportunities for copper and tin. In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Market Analysis - **Macro - environment**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill to avoid a government shutdown until January 30, 2026. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions are out, increasing the expectation of economic - stabilizing policies. The Fed cut interest rates in October and will end the balance - sheet lock - up process in December, but Powell said a rate cut in December is uncertain [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The raw material supply remains tight and is spreading to the smelting end. Overseas aluminum smelting faces potential disruptions. Terminal demand is slightly weak, with a decline in automobile sales growth in October and an expanded decline in air - conditioner production schedules from November to December. The current supply - demand of base metals is slightly weak, but there are expectations of tight supply [1]. 2. Individual Metal Analysis Copper - **View**: Copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized as inventories decline. - **Information analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the decision on further rate cuts in December is uncertain. The US financial system's liquidity may still be deteriorating. In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month by 2.94 tons (2.62%), and increased year - on - year by 9.63%. As of November 10, copper inventories dropped by 0.74 tons to 19.59 tons. - **Main logic**: Macro factors and tight liquidity in the US money market led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions increased, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling rose, leading to a decline in production. On the demand side, copper spot turned to a premium, and inventory started to decline, indicating increased downstream purchasing willingness. - **Outlook**: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the medium - to - long term due to supply constraints and disruptions [7][8]. Alumina - **View**: The fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. - **Main logic**: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Although there are some fluctuations in high - cost production capacity and environmental factors cause disruptions, the supply contraction is not obvious, and the inventory is still increasing strongly in China [9]. Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum prices are fluctuating at a high level as inventories accumulate. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories showed different trends, and the warehouse receipts increased. Some overseas aluminum plants have extended their operations, and China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased in October. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is volatile. On the supply side, domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and there are marginal disruptions overseas. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, and the terminal demand is stable. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, the price center may continue to rise [10][11][12]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Aluminum alloy prices are fluctuating at a high level as scrap aluminum supply remains tight. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of ADC12 remained unchanged, and the automobile sales decreased slightly in October. - **Main logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is strongly supported. On the supply side, there are risks of production cuts in some alloy plants. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and the warehouse receipts are increasing. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong. In the medium term, prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertain policies and raw material disruptions [13][15]. Zinc - **View**: Zinc prices are fluctuating at a high level as the export window opens. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were negative. As of November 10, the zinc ingot inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. - **Main logic**: The macro - environment is optimistic. On the supply side, the short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and the smelting profit is good, with high production. The export window has opened, relieving domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is entering the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. Lead - **View**: Lead prices are fluctuating as social inventories accumulate slightly. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The social inventory and warehouse receipts increased. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the profit of secondary lead smelting increased, and the production increased. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery plants resumed production, and the demand is in the peak season. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [17][18]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices are fluctuating as the current supply - demand is loose. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME nickel inventory increased, and the domestic warehouse receipts decreased. Indonesia cracked down on illegal nickel mining, and there were developments in mining governance. - **Main logic**: Market sentiment dominates the price. The supply of nickel ore is loose, the production of intermediate products has recovered, and the inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [19][20]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Stainless steel prices are fluctuating and rising as warehouse receipts continue to decline. - **Information analysis**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased. The price of nickel - iron and chromium decreased. The Indonesian government allocated funds for mining and smelting projects. - **Main logic**: The cost support for steel prices is weakening. The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. The social inventory increased slightly, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [21]. Tin - **View**: Tin prices are fluctuating at a high level as the Shanghai tin inventory continues to decline. - **Information analysis**: On November 10, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of tin increased. - **Main logic**: There are continuous supply disruptions in tin. The production increase in Wa State may be postponed, and there are problems in other production areas. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee is low. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [23]. 3. Market Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index), and PPI commodity index of the non - ferrous metals market all showed increases, with the increase rates being 0.65%, 0.71%, 0.48%, and 0.37% respectively. The non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.58% on that day, 0.85% in the past 5 days, 1.60% in the past month, and 7.76% since the beginning of the year [144][145].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and major asset classes lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so major assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation strategy for the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors allocate major asset classes evenly in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase positions appropriately if there is a correction in the fourth quarter [8]. 3. Summary by Sections 2.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there is a short - term tightening trend, it is not expected to have a significant impact on major asset prices. There are two factors that may improve US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more positive information was found in the October inflation data. Additionally, there is a possibility that the October consumption data may slightly exceed expectations [8]. 2.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. With the congestion of small - cap funds, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the option market liquidity falling short of expectations, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Considering factors such as policy, fundamental recovery, and tariffs, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: With the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Affected by the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, there is pressure on loading and a lack of upward drivers. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation is released in advance, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve. Affected by overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is proposed. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment. Affected by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed's policy, and domestic demand, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Aluminum**: With the linkage between stocks and futures, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and rise. However, it is affected by macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The resumption of production is uncertain, and there is a risk of significant price fluctuations. Affected by demand, supply, and new technologies, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus. Pay attention to the cost side, such as crude oil and overseas propane, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the strength of refined oil products, it may run strongly. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate and rise [11]. Agriculture - **Pig**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price is expected to fluctuate and fall. Affected by breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures price rebounds strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. Affected by production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes, it is expected to fluctuate and fall [11]. - **Cotton**: The price fluctuation range is limited. Affected by demand and inventory, it is expected to fluctuate [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, mainly due to the release of some negative sentiment from the public notice of a mine by the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources. The strong current and expected demand drove the price to rise with increased positions [3]. - The current market has strong supply and demand. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the supply - side expectations are wavering, which may cause significant price fluctuations. Although the SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October and is expected to remain strong from November to December, it still faces the problem of ore shortage. The apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the continuation of demand, the off - season performance in the first quarter of next year, and the renewal policy. The expected demand for energy storage may generate speculative demand when the price drops, raising the price center. The social inventory is continuing to be destocked, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant. The market is tight in November and December, but if a certain production capacity resumes in the near future, it may ease in December. In the long run, if the price drops due to resumed production, it is a good time to buy at a low price [4]. - The current demand is still strong, and the downstream procurement demand is still strong. After the previous price drop, the price was quickly pulled up to fill the gap, with obvious support. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy appropriately after a pull - back. Due to the expected resumed production and off - season expectations, direct chasing of long positions is not recommended, but long positions can be arranged when the price pulls back [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose by more than 6%, driven by strong demand and the release of some negative sentiment from the mine notice [3]. Fundamental Situation - Supply: SMM monthly output increased by 5.7% month - on - month to 9.23 tons in October, expected to be strong from November to December, but facing ore shortage [4]. - Demand: Apparent demand is good, and the production schedule from November to December is expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to demand continuation, off - season performance, and renewal policy. Expected energy - storage demand may generate speculative demand when prices drop [4]. - Inventory and Basis: Social inventory is destocking, and the decline of warehouse receipts should be vigilant [4]. - Balance: The market is tight in November and December. If a certain production capacity resumes, it may ease in December. In the long run, a price drop due to resumed production is a buying opportunity [4]. Summary and Strategy - The current demand is strong, and the downstream procurement demand is high. It is recommended to have a bullish mindset, buy after a pull - back. Do not directly chase long positions, but arrange long positions when the price pulls back [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options is expected to be imminent, which will bring positive impacts such as strengthening China's commodity pricing power, promoting the healthy development of the industry, helping enterprises manage price risks, and enhancing market transparency [3][4] - In the short - term, the global supply of platinum and palladium is tight. In the long - term, platinum's supply - demand fundamentals will gradually improve, while palladium will gradually become looser [5] - In the future, platinum is expected to fluctuate upward in the medium - to - long term, and for palladium, attention should be paid to the price decline risk caused by the relaxation of supply - demand. Suggested price ranges are 1500 - 1800 dollars per ounce for platinum and 1300 - 1600 dollars per ounce for palladium. Strategies include long platinum and long - platinum short - palladium cross - variety opportunities [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 7, 2025, the CSRC approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and the listing time is expected to be approaching [3] - Positive impacts of the listing: strengthening China's commodity pricing power as China is a major consumer but lacks pricing influence; promoting industrial development and supply - chain stability by providing standardized contracts and price - discovery functions; helping enterprises manage price risks in the context of large price fluctuations; enhancing market transparency as derivatives are information - aggregation platforms [3][4] Fundamental Situation - Short - term: Supply is tight due to tariffs and sanctions on Russia. As of November 5, the 1 - month lease rate of platinum is around 2.7%, and that of palladium is around 1.0% [5] - Long - term: Supply from South Africa is restricted by power shortages, labor issues, etc. In Q2 2025, global platinum mine and refined production decreased by 7.8% and 4.1% year - on - year respectively; in the first half of 2025, global palladium mine and refined production decreased by 10.1% and 6.6% year - on - year respectively. Platinum demand is growing steadily, while palladium supply - demand is becoming looser [5] Summary and Strategy - Recently, precious metal prices have adjusted. Platinum remains firm due to trade restrictions, and palladium prices are supported by supply tightness in other regions. In the future, platinum is expected to fluctuate upward, and for palladium, attention should be paid to price decline risks [6] - Suggested price ranges: 1500 - 1800 dollars per ounce for platinum and 1300 - 1600 dollars per ounce for palladium. Strategies include long platinum and long - platinum short - palladium cross - variety opportunities [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report In the week of November 9, both global on - land and floating storage crude oil inventories jumped, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory continued to rise to a new high for the year. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remains high. Regionally, China's inventory decreased slightly, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East all increased [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: In the week of November 9, global on - land and floating storage crude oil inventories increased, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventory reached a new high for the year, with high year - on - year inventory pressure [1]. - **Regional Inventory Changes**: China's inventory decreased slightly, while inventories in India, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East increased [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, OPEC's production increased by 50,000 barrels per day month-on-month and 2.17 million barrels per day year-on-year. The slowdown in the month-on-month growth rate was due to the deceleration of production increases in eight OPEC+ countries starting in October and the slight decline in the production of Nigeria, Libya, and Venezuela, which dragged down the total production. Iraq was the main contributor to the increase, with its production rising by 60,000 barrels per day in October after the resumption of exports in the Kurdish region at the end of September. Overall, the supply pressure dominated by OPEC+ production increases is still being realized, and attention should be paid to the verification of later OPEC monthly report data [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog OPEC Production Data - In October 2025, OPEC's total production was 29.07 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 2.17 million barrels per day and a month-on-month increase of 50,000 barrels per day [3]. - Saudi Arabia produced 10.02 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 1.07 million barrels per day and a month-on-month increase of 40,000 barrels per day [3]. - Iraq produced 4.38 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 250,000 barrels per day and a month-on-month increase of 60,000 barrels per day [3]. - Kuwait produced 2.56 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 120,000 barrels per day and a month-on-month increase of 40,000 barrels per day [3]. - The UAE produced 3.55 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 380,000 barrels per day [3]. - Algeria produced 960,000 barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 60,000 barrels per day and no month-on-month change [3]. - Nigeria produced 1.52 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 10,000 barrels per day and a month-on-month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day [3]. - Gabon produced 230,000 barrels per day, with a month-on-month increase of 10,000 barrels per day [3]. - Equatorial Guinea produced 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - Congo produced 250,000 barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 10,000 barrels per day and no month-on-month change [3]. - Iran produced 3.36 million barrels per day, with no month-on-month change [3]. - Venezuela produced 950,000 barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 60,000 barrels per day and a month-on-month decrease of 50,000 barrels per day [3]. - Libya produced 1.24 million barrels per day, with a year-on-year increase of 210,000 barrels per day and a month-on-month decrease of 70,000 barrels per day [3]. Production Trend Charts - Multiple charts show the historical production trends and seasonal patterns of OPEC and its member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Algeria, Nigeria, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Iran, Venezuela, and Libya [3][5][7][10][11][13][16][18][20][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][37][39][41][43][45][47][49][51][55][57][59].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 45th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance, and planned issuance of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, new local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as the net financing scale of local bonds and treasury bonds [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 91.1%. This week, 45.2 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 109.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 139.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in November was 45.2 billion yuan [4][5]. New General Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 0 yuan of new general bonds were issued, a decrease of 1.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, 1.25 billion yuan is planned to be issued. As of November 9, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in January was 0 yuan [5][6]. New Local Bonds - As of November 9, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 90.4% [9]. Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 225.8 billion yuan, an increase of 225.8 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 22 billion yuan. As of November 9, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 87.4% [12]. Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -33.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 209.3 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 242.8 billion yuan [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation. Crude oil should be treated with an oscillatory mindset. PX is in a strong position, and the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish. PTA's supply - demand pattern shows an improvement expectation, and the price is expected to be supported [3][14]. - Most products in the energy and chemical sector are expected to oscillate, with some showing a slightly bullish or bearish tendency in the short - term, depending on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - On November 6, 2025, the Chinese A - share market rose, and the commodity market sentiment generally improved. PX and PTA in the energy and chemical sector performed well, with PX rising more than PTA, and TA's processing fee per ton dropping to 120 yuan/ton. The rise of aromatics is related to the high cracking spread of global gasoline, and there has been arbitrage from Asian blending products to the Americas recently. The downstream demand for polyester remains healthy, and the loom operating rate has increased week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Product - by - Product Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, geopolitical risks remain, and the price is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price for Asia, corresponding to the downward shift of the Middle - East oil premium center in the past month. Russian refineries have been attacked, and the US refined oil inventory has decreased smoothly since October. The overseas gasoline and diesel markets remain strong, and the reduction of refined oil inventory pressure and the strong cracking spread support the crude oil demand. However, the continuous inventory build - up in reality is difficult to change, so the price oscillates [9]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 yuan/ton resistance level again. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, and the situation between the US and Venezuela is under control. The asphalt futures price has fallen below the important support level of 3200 yuan/ton, which may turn into a resistance level. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has fallen below 400 yuan/ton, the production schedule in November has decreased significantly, but the demand has entered the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the driving force for the high premium of asphalt has weakened. The pricing weight of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong, and the inventory build - up pressure is still large [11]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The fuel oil is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in December, the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, but the premium on Russian products in Europe and the US still exists. The fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific region in November is expected to decrease due to the decline in Russian exports. However, the refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak as it has entered the off - season [11]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak oscillation of crude oil, and the 3500 yuan/ton resistance level is effective in the short - term. The main product attribute of low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, and the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of the gasoline and diesel cracking spread, supporting low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and it is expected to follow the movement of crude oil [13]. 3.2.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The 2100 yuan/ton integer level provides some support, and methanol is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The methanol futures price oscillated on November 6. The domestic methanol factory operating rate remains high, resulting in sufficient supply. The port inventory is relatively high, which still suppresses the price in the short - term. However, considering the possible disturbances in Iran in winter, methanol still has long - buying value and should be treated with an oscillatory view in the short - term [28]. 3.2.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The export information has been confirmed, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. - **Main Logic**: On November 6, the supply - demand pattern of urea remained loose. Although the supply has returned to a high level after the end of plant maintenance, the demand is weak due to the end of winter wheat sowing. The high inventory pressure still exists, but the coal cost provides strong support. Combined with the speculation about export information in the market, urea is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the rebound height is limited under the fermentation of market sentiment. - **Main Logic**: The polyester chain products have strengthened, but EG's own supply - demand is weak, and the port inventory has continued to increase this week. The overall price elasticity of EG will be significantly suppressed in the medium - term. Although the factory operating rate of EG has decreased this week, providing some support to the price, the long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the rebound height is limited [20][21]. 3.2.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: PX is leading the polyester chain strongly, and the short - term market sentiment is enthusiastic. - **Main Logic**: The cost change is limited. There are rumors of production cuts and PX factory maintenance in the market, driving PX and PTA prices up. PX has been in a strong position in 2025, with continuous inventory reduction and tight spot liquidity. The supply of PX is expected to be tight in the first half of next year, and the positive growth of downstream demand supports PX demand to some extent [14]. 3.2.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: After the meeting, PTA plants have stopped production in batches, and the market sentiment continues to ferment. - **Main Logic**: Affected by market news, the PTA futures price has strengthened significantly. Although it is difficult for enterprises to reach a coordinated production - cut agreement, there are many planned plant disturbances in November. The supply - demand pattern of PTA is expected to improve, and the downward compression space of the PTA processing spread is limited, but the upward space depends on whether there is more than expected production cut [14]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Caught between rising costs and falling demand expectations, the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has risen due to capital speculation, and short - fiber has followed the cost increase but with a smaller increase, resulting in a passive compression of the processing fee. Although the downstream procurement has increased in the afternoon under the influence of market sentiment, the overall sales this week have been weak, and short - fiber has continued to accumulate inventory [22][23]. 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the rise of raw materials passively. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures have risen, driving some polyester bottle - chip factories to raise their prices. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the processing fee is within a stable range [24][25]. 3.2.12 Polypropylene (PP) - **Viewpoint**: As the price drops, the trading volume increases, and PP is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The downstream trading volume has increased as the price drops. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. PP's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [31][32]. 3.2.13 Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and LLDPE is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The LLDPE futures price oscillates. The price of crude oil oscillates, and OPEC+ has shown a cautious attitude towards increasing production. LLDPE's own fundamental support is limited. As the peak season fades, the upstream and mid - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the production pressure is large due to the decrease in maintenance and the increase in production capacity [30]. 3.2.14 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream maintenance has ended in early November, and PVC production will increase. The downstream operating rate has recovered, but only the low - price procurement volume has increased. The PVC export order signing has weakened this week, and the anti - dumping measure suppresses the export expectation [34]. 3.2.15 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda is expected to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the macro - disturbances in November have subsided. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of caustic soda have improved this week, but the driving force for continuous improvement is limited. The alumina production capacity has decreased, the demand for caustic soda from Weiqiao is still high, the new alumina project in Guangxi in the first quarter of 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, the non - aluminum operating rate is stable, and the replenishment intention is not high. The maintenance of caustic soda plants will end in early November, and the production will increase month - on - month [35]. 3.3 Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have changed to different extents. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has increased by 22 yuan/ton [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different changes. For example, the basis of asphalt has increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [38]. - **Inter - product Spreads**: The spreads between different products, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc., have also changed. For example, the 1 - month TA - EG spread has increased by 78 yuan/ton [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand weakness in the black building materials industry aligns with off - season characteristics. It is difficult to support the prices of sector varieties, but the downward pressure is also not significant. Without macro and policy disturbances in the short term, prices are expected to remain oscillating. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, phased upward opportunities can be observed [1][5] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: The resumption of hot metal production this week was below expectations, mainly due to insufficient sinter supply in some Tangshan steel mills. Considering seasonal blast furnace maintenance, the increase in hot metal production is limited. Iron ore inventory is expected to show a slight increase, and the fundamentals lack upward price support. Given the existing macro and policy disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. For scrap steel, supply increases while demand decreases, with no prominent short - term fundamental contradictions. Scrap steel prices are expected to follow the trend of finished products [1] Carbon Element - Coke: After three rounds of price hikes, steel mills are resistant to further increases due to profit pressure. However, coke has strong cost support and there is still procurement demand from steel mills, so the coke - steel game will continue, and coke prices are expected to oscillate. - Coking coal: Coking coal supply is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, coal mine inventories have dropped to recent lows. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and prices are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Short - term cost support is strong, but the market has a pessimistic supply - demand outlook, and there is insufficient upward price drive. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term cost trends are strong, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and there is insufficient upward price drive [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The expectation of supply disturbances has resurfaced, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. With medium and high downstream inventories, if sales remain weak, prices will return to an oscillating and weak trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices may continue to decline oscillating. - Soda ash: Recently, downstream buyers have started restocking as they think the price is appropriate. The cost of soda ash plants has increased, leading to a slight price increase. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Specific Varieties - Steel: Spot market transactions are average, and sentiment has improved. Steel mill profits have shrunk again, and production has decreased significantly. In the off - season, demand has declined from its peak, and inventory levels are still higher than the same period last year. The futures market is under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro - policy and supply - side disturbances [7] - Iron ore: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and inventory has increased significantly. Overseas mine shipments are relatively stable, but the arrival volume has fluctuated greatly recently. The recovery of hot metal is restricted by factors such as sinter supply and blast furnace maintenance. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased while demand has decreased. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to follow finished products [9] - Coke: Supply has contracted again, and inventory has been continuously reduced. After three rounds of price hikes, there is a game between coke and steel, and prices are expected to oscillate [11] - Coking coal: Supply remains at a low level, and downstream procurement is good. Mine inventories have dropped to recent lows, and prices are expected to oscillate [12] - Glass: Supply disturbances are expected to intensify, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. With medium and high downstream inventories, if sales are weak, prices will return to an oscillating and weak trend. In the long - term, prices may decline oscillating [13] - Soda ash: Downstream restocking has started, and the cost of soda ash plants has increased. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the price center will decline [15] - Manganese silicon: Cost support is strengthening, but the market supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the upward price space is limited [16] - Ferrosilicon: Cost trends are strong, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and there is insufficient upward price drive [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the oil and fat market has improved, and it is waiting for the fermentation of bullish factors. The protein meal market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The corn/starch market has shown stable to weak spot prices and an increase in positions on the futures market. The hog market is experiencing price fluctuations due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The natural rubber market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The synthetic rubber market has seen a temporary improvement in sentiment as raw material prices have stabilized. The cotton market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The sugar market is testing its lower support in the short term. The pulp market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The double - glue paper market has strengthened following the pulp market. The log market is oscillating at the bottom [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment has improved, waiting for bullish factors to ferment. The outlook is that palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil will oscillate. - **Logic**: Optimistic trade sentiment led to the rise of US soybeans on Wednesday, and domestic oils stopped falling and rose yesterday, with palm and rapeseed oils being relatively strong. The US government is in a "shutdown," and the market doubts the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly. From an industrial perspective, US soybean data updates are suspended. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and the market expects a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield. China's tariff adjustment policy boosts the export demand for US soybeans. Brazilian soybean planting is going smoothly. The arrival of imported soybeans in China may be at a relatively high level, and the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, and the probability of inventory accumulation is high. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low due to increased consumption in biodiesel. India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. With the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to increase [2][6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are oscillating at a high level, and the positive impact of China's purchases has been gradually digested. Attention should be paid to the US soybean yield and the growth of South American soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased, but the discount is more favorable than that of the US. Brazilian soybeans will enter a critical growth period in November, and the impact of La Nina should be monitored. CBOT US soybeans are approaching a reasonable valuation, and new bullish factors are needed for an upward movement. Domestically, in the short term, the import and crushing profit of the January futures contract is still in the red, and profit margins need to be provided to stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the quantity of China's US soybean purchases will be gradually realized. The South American weather and the strength of the fourth - quarter consumption season will determine the upward potential of soybean meal. In the long term, there is expected to be no gap in soybean supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot prices are stable to weak, and the futures market has increased positions and risen. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable with local fluctuations. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as the temperature drops, and the supply pressure has eased. However, there are bottlenecks in transportation capacity, leading to increased freight costs and a slow - to - resolve shortage in the sales area. In November, the market is still under the pressure of new grain listing. The expected increase in production in the Northeast will drag down prices. Feed - using enterprises are mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force for prices before large - scale inventory building occurs [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices are oscillating. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The supply and demand are loose, but farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices after the price weakens has led to a low - level oscillation of hog prices. In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of sows capable of reproduction was at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased from January to September. It is expected that the hog slaughter volume will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has started to decline. With the dual drivers of "policy + losses," the reduction of sow production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026. The demand has increased slightly as the temperature drops. Group farms are actively selling, and the average weight has decreased. The enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The rebound of the natural rubber market is in line with the rebound rhythm of commodities. The fundamental situation can provide some bottom support. The RU warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled, and the new rubber registration progress is slow, with a lower valuation compared to NR. The import pressure in November may be relatively large, which will put pressure on the upside of NR. The short - term spread between RU and NR may be repaired. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no further macro - driving force, the rubber price may face downward adjustment pressure. However, as it enters November, there may still be room for speculation about domestic rubber - cutting suspension and RU warehouse receipts, so the downside space is relatively limited [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and sentiment has temporarily improved. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The BR main contract has switched to the January contract and continued to rebound, returning to the level before Tuesday's decline. The improvement in sentiment is due to the better trading volume and temporary stabilization of butadiene prices, along with a strong rebound in the overall commodity market. The price of butadiene dropped rapidly last week to a record low this year. The supply - demand contradiction in the market has intensified, and the cautious attitude of downstream buyers has led to poor trading volume. Although the downstream buyers have gradually entered the market after the price dropped to a low level, and the supply side of butadiene intends to stop the price decline, buyers are still cautious. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the improvement in trading sentiment can continue to support the butadiene price. In the medium term, the supply - demand of butadiene will remain in surplus in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may decline further [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The short - term outlook is for the January contract to oscillate within a range, and the long - term outlook is for a bullish oscillation. - **Logic**: The increase in the new - season Xinjiang cotton production is less than expected, and the purchase cost has increased, which supported the cotton price to oscillate strongly in October. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the reduction of import tariffs on US cotton are expected to promote US cotton exports to China and China's textile exports next year, but the short - term impact is limited. With the listing of new cotton, the supply has increased, and the cotton price is under pressure. At the same time, the profit from hedging has gradually emerged, and there is hedging pressure on the upside of the cotton price. The upper pressure on the January contract is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The market is testing its lower support in the short term. The long - term outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak of Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased, which may marginally improve the loose international trade flow. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has increased slightly year - on - year, and the market's expectation of Brazil's production increase has not changed. Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan have increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import controls on syrups and premixes and the expected exhaustion of import licenses have made the domestic market relatively strong, there is still downward pressure on the domestic market as the southern sugar enters the peak crushing season [14][15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The recent rise is due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper driven by the increase in packaging paper prices and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper, as well as the increase in wood chip prices. From a medium - term perspective, the previously traded bearish factors have not completely ended. Although the bullish factors in downstream demand may bring short - term bullishness, the upward space is expected to be limited. On the fundamental side, the demand for softwood pulp has been low due to formula adjustments in recent years. There is export pressure from overseas to China, and the import price in US dollars remains weak. The hardwood pulp market has an obvious surplus situation. Although the demand has increased seasonally, it is difficult to support the price above the production cost. The futures main contract price is approaching the prices of some brands, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium under the weak supply - demand background. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts this year will also put pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some bullish factors, such as the obvious increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected marginal improvement in cultural paper demand in November and December. The paper pulp futures market is inclined to a wait - and - see attitude [16]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The market has strengthened following the pulp market. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The price of double - glue paper in Shandong has remained stable. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption - side support is insufficient. The supply - demand relationship is still weak, and the support from wood pulp is limited. The new production facilities are operating stably, and the paper supply surplus is still severe. The demand side has seen the start of publishing tenders, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the overall downstream consumption is still weak. Some factories are facing greater production and sales pressure. Although some paper enterprises have announced price increase plans in early November, the market is waiting and seeing, and most prices will remain stable at the end - of - month settlement. The publishing tenders have not yet started intensively, and the demand side has no obvious positive factors. The upstream wood pulp price is under pressure, and the cost support for double - glue paper is limited. The price of double - glue paper is expected to stabilize [17]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The market is oscillating at the bottom. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The log market has remained weak and stable this week. On the one hand, traders are actively selling, and the decline in the sales volume of laminated wood has put pressure on the price of sawn timber, leading to downward pressure on the spot market. On the other hand, New Zealand log suppliers have adjusted their quotes, and there will be a greater pressure of blue - stained timber on the arrival of ships in the future, which will also put pressure on the spot market. The log peak season is gradually ending, and the port outbound volume will decline. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, the log inventory may accumulate again. Although the market has a short - term bearish sentiment, the log valuation is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited. The speculative side is advised to wait and see [19].