1. Report Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, the macro environment enters a vacuum period, and large - scale assets lack further positive drivers. The market needs to digest previous gains, so large - scale assets may enter a short - term shock period. However, the overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and the macro environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation in large - scale assets in the fourth quarter, hold long positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. In case of a certain correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, the global macro focus is more on changes in US dollar liquidity. Although there seems to be a short - term tight situation in US dollar liquidity, it will not have a significant impact on the prices of large - scale assets. There are two factors for the improvement of US dollar liquidity: marginal easing of monetary policy and the normal release of funds in the TGA account once the US government resumes work, which can relieve the short - term pressure on US dollar liquidity to a certain extent [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, China's export volume growth year - on - year was weaker than expected and the previous value, and the month - on - month performance was also weaker than the seasonal average. However, more optimistic information was seen in the inflation data for October. In addition, there is a possibility that the consumption data for October may slightly exceed expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: As mentioned above, large - scale assets may enter a shock period in the short term, but the overall fourth - quarter allocation idea remains unchanged, and the macro environment is favorable for risk assets [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Summary 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active. However, there is a problem of crowded funds in small - and micro - cap stocks. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined, and the liquidity of the options market may be lower than expected. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Key points to watch include policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factor surprises. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Key points to watch include the performance of the US fundamentals, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, and the trend of the global equity market. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is pressure on loading, lacking upward drivers. Key points to watch include the rate of freight decline in September. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel**: In the off - season of demand, the market is under pressure, and the price on the disk has fallen from a high level. Key points to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, and hot metal production. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The pressure of inventory accumulation has been released in advance, and the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. Key points to watch include the production and shipment of overseas mines, domestic hot metal production, weather factors, changes in ore inventory at ports, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: Three rounds of price increases have been implemented, and a fourth round is being proposed. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply is difficult to increase, and the sentiment in the spot market remains strong. Key points to watch include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support remains strong, but the supply - demand is loose, and the price is under pressure. Key points to watch include raw material costs and steel procurement situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but there is pressure on the upper side of the disk. Key points to watch include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Glass**: Production cuts in Shahe have been implemented, but demand remains weak. Key points to watch include spot production and sales. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has strengthened, and light soda ash has shown a short - term recovery. Key points to watch include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to the tight US dollar liquidity, the copper price has adjusted in the short term. Key points to watch include supply disruptions, better - than - expected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Federal Reserve, less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Alumina**: The fundamental situation is still one of over - supply, and the alumina price is under pressure and in a shock state. Key points to watch include less - than - expected ore复产, better - than - expected electrolytic aluminum复产, and extreme market trends. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Aluminum**: There is a linkage between stocks and futures, and the aluminum price is rising in a shock manner. Key points to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [8]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and the zinc price is in a high - level shock state. Key points to watch include macro - turning risks and better - than - expected recovery of zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the lead price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless steel market on the disk is in a shock state. Key points to watch include Indonesian policy risks and better - than - expected demand growth. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Tin**: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and better - than - expected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expected复产 is uncertain, and attention should be paid to significant price fluctuations. Key points to watch include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: There is a lack of short - term driving factors, and the market continues to be in a shock state. Key points to watch include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **LPG**: The external release of refineries has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Key points to watch include the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price has fallen, and the asphalt futures price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include geopolitical factors and crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The refined oil market is strong, and low - sulfur fuel oil may show a strong - upward shock trend. Key points to watch include crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend [10]. - **Methanol**: The high - inventory reality suppresses the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - energy and overseas dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions have become more cautious. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of export quotas and the coal price market [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is a game between downward supply - demand and cost support. The short - term market is in a low - level range and under obvious upward pressure. Key points to watch include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PX**: There are rumors of some factories reducing the load of disproportionation, which has affected market sentiment. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the price center has moved up, and there is no unexpected reduction in supply. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and macro - abnormalities [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and processing fees are under pressure. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: It follows the raw material price increase passively. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and new device commissioning situations [10]. - **Propylene**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and the domestic macro - situation. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PP**: The production volume remains at a relatively high level, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Plastic**: The downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited, and the market is in a shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about over - inventory, and the styrene market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **PVC**: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC market is in a weak shock state. Key points to watch include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: The market is in a low - valuation and weak - expectation state, and the caustic soda price is in a shock state. Key points to watch include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is a shock trend [10]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil led the rise in oils and fats yesterday. The short - term judgment is a shock - upward trend. Key points to watch include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The far - month contracts have made up for the increase, and the monthly spread has narrowed. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include weather, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Downstream procurement and upstream hoarding have led to an upward breakthrough in futures prices. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: The monthly slaughter volume is sufficient, and the pig price is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: It has rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to its sustainability. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [10]. - **Cotton**: The price is fluctuating in a narrow range and in a shock state. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include demand and inventory [10]. - **Sugar**: It has rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a shock - downward trend. Key points to watch include imports and Brazilian production [10]. - **Pulp**: The futures market has driven the spot market, and the market is dominated by disk funds. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics [10]. - **Logs**: Domestic timber has been delivered successively, and the log market on the disk is running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a shock trend. Key points to watch include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific strategies, some are rated as "Potential" (关注), such as the strategies for copper, zinc, and soybean in the "Opportunity to Watch" section [4]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the cross - border arbitrage opportunities in the Chinese commodity futures market. It assesses various factors including inventory levels, price differentials, market supply and demand, and macro - economic policies in different sectors such as forex, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, and agriculturals. Based on these analyses, it provides trading suggestions for each commodity, mainly including "on hold" and specific long - short strategies [4][6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Forex Market - Last week, the US Dollar Index rose because Powell signaled that a December rate cut is not certain. However, the Fed's expectation of strong US consumption may be overly optimistic, and it is expected to continue rate cuts in the first half of 2026. The US Dollar may rise in the short - term due to factors like a weak yen, but the potential for further increases is limited and there is no trend reversal [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals 3.2.1 Gold - Last week, the SHFE - COMEX and COMEX - LBMA gold price differentials fluctuated, with valuations at a neutral level. Currently, the gold price is in an adjustment period, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [11]. 3.2.2 Silver - Last week, the silver price spread was range - bounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread recovered to neutrality. In the short - term, silver is expected to fluctuate, and the arbitrage strategy is to hold [16]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - Last week, the spot discount for LME copper narrowed, LME copper inventories slightly decreased, while Chinese copper social inventories continued to accumulate, and the spot copper import window was at a loss. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [22]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - The traditional peak demand season has passed in China, with inventory accumulating, while LME inventory declined. The price ratio fluctuated within a range, and the cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [28]. 3.3.3 Zinc - Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc is open, and inventory accumulation has slowed. LME plans to limit large open interest in near contracts to ease the squeeze pressure. The strategy is to short LME zinc and long SHFE zinc [37]. 3.3.4 Lead - Last week, domestic social inventory rose slightly, smelters' inventory remained low, and LME lead inventory decreased with a high canceled warrants ratio. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [38]. 3.3.5 Nickel - The import window is currently closed, with price differences fluctuating within a range and the extreme difference situation improved. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [45]. 3.3.6 Tin - Last week, the tin ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed with an import loss of 16,292 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the price spread was not obvious. The cross - market arbitrage strategy is to hold [49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Iron Ore - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers. The strategy is to hold [55]. 3.5 Energy 3.5.1 Crude Oil - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. Due to relatively stable Chinese inventory, large freight fluctuations, and uncertain Russian crude supply, the strategy is to hold [59]. 3.5.2 Natural Gas (TFU - HH) - Last week, the spread fluctuated. The US gas price was pushed up by cold wave expectations and increased exports, while the European price declined due to a loose LNG market and warm temperature expectations. In the short - term, be cautious about shorting; in the medium - term, there is an expectation of the spread rising in winter [94]. 3.6 Agriculturals 3.6.1 Soybean - Last week, import crushing margins were at the bottom and oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the margins are expected to recover. The strategy is to long CBOT and short DCE [65]. 3.6.2 Sugar - Last week, import crushing margins increased, and the overseas market is expected to be stronger. The short - term strategy is to hold [69]. 3.6.3 Natural Rubber - Last week, there was little change, and the spread was in the non - arbitrage zone. With the approaching of the global tapping season, supply is expected to increase, but demand remains weak. The strategy is to hold [72]. 3.7 Overseas Arbitrage 3.7.1 COMEX - LME Copper - Last week, the spread between COMEX and LME copper widened due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short - term, gold and silver prices are expected to adjust, COMEX copper inventory will accumulate, and LME inventory will decline, so the spread may narrow. The strategy is to short COMEX and long LME [79]. 3.7.2 Brent - Dubai EFS - Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. With a weakening month - spread and oscillating Middle - East crude oil spot discounts, the short - term guidance is limited, and the strategy is to hold [84]. 3.7.3 WTI - Brent - Last week, the WTI - Brent spread fluctuated. With a continuously weak US refinery utilization rate, reduced refined oil inventory pressure, and expected production increase, the spread driving force is limited, and the strategy is to hold [90].

风险提示: | | 董丹丹 | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 册 | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号: Z0020561 | | | 分 | | | | | | 员 | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | 杨黎 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | 投资咨询号:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 最新数据: 国内苯乙烯开工略升。截至2025年11月6日,国内苯乙烯开工率66.94%,环比+0.22pct,同比-0.9pct。 周度产量33.29万吨,较上期增0.95万吨,华北和华南各有一套装置检修重启,另外东北和华南新增装 ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about the global styrene market situation as of November 2025 [1][3] Group 2: Domestic Styrene Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the domestic styrene operating rate was 66.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9 pct [3] - The weekly output was 33.29 tons, an increase of 0.95 tons from the previous period. The restart of maintenance of units in North and South China and the normal production of new units in Northeast and South China led to an overall increase in domestic supply [3] Group 3: Overseas Styrene Situation - As of November 10, 2025, the overseas styrene operating rate was 75.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 10.9 pct, at a relatively low level in the past five - year comparison [3] - A 635,000 - ton line of LyondellBasell in the US started maintenance in November, and a 240,000 - ton INEOS device in Belgium restarted in early November [3] Group 4: Global Styrene Situation - As of November 10, 2025, the global styrene operating rate was 71.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9 pct, close to the lowest level in the past six years [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being "oscillating", and some like iron ore having an outlook of "oscillating on the stronger side" [7][9][10][15][19]. Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, industry contradictions are limited. With no new disturbances from the macro and policy fronts, the prices of black building materials sector varieties are expected to maintain an oscillating trend. If there are still positive macro and policy releases later, the possibility of a phased upward movement can be considered [1][5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and arrivals also declined. Southeast Asian hurricanes may disrupt arrival schedules. Demand is weakening seasonally, but the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. After the peak arrival period ends, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate on the stronger side in the short term after a rapid decline [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply has increased while demand has decreased, and the fundamentals have weakened marginally. Recently, the price of finished products has been under pressure, and leading steel enterprises in East China lowered the price by 30 yuan/ton over the weekend. It is expected that the spot price of scrap steel will follow the decline in the short term [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After three rounds of price increases, steel mills are resistant to further increases, but coke has strong cost support and steel mills still have procurement demand. The game between coke producers and steel mills will continue, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and import supplements are limited. Although the procurement of mid - and downstream enterprises is expected to slow down, coal mine inventories are at a low level in recent years, and there is little possibility of significant inventory accumulation. The fundamentals are expected to remain healthy until the end of the year, and the spot price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by finished products. The price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term costs strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term cost trends strongly support the price, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward driving force for prices is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [2][18]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may still be disturbed, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Currently, supply exceeds demand. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the price may oscillate weakly; otherwise, it may rise. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: Recently, cost increases and factory shutdowns have led to a rebound in prices. However, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and prices above the industry's high - cost line may face pressure again. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [2][14][16]. 5. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2254.65, up 0.65%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2552.65, up 0.71%; the Industrial Products Index was 2226.35, up 0.48%; and the PPI Commodity Index was 1346.01, up 0.37%. The steel industry chain index rose 0.26% on that day, with a decline of 0.12% in the past 5 days, an increase of 0.18% in the past month, and a decline of 5.37% since the beginning of the year [99][100].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global crude oil market is in a state of continuous inventory accumulation, and geopolitical uncertainties are causing oil prices to continue to fluctuate. The chemical industry is expected to be volatile, and investors should approach it with a range - bound mindset [2][3]. - Different energy and chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is range - bound, some products like asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil may be strong, and most chemical products are expected to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation of Crude Oil and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Global crude oil inventories have reached a new high for the year, and the US NGL inventory has reached a record high for the same period. The lack of short - term drivers is causing the market to continue to fluctuate [2]. - **Chemicals**: On Monday, chemicals slightly stabilized within a limited range. Ethylene glycol started to accumulate inventory, while pure benzene and styrene both saw inventory reductions. PX and PTA are the strongest in the chemical sector, but it is still difficult for them to outperform crude oil [3]. 3.2 Outlook for Each Product - **Crude Oil**: Short - term drivers are lacking, and the market will continue to oscillate. The increase in global inventory shows supply pressure, but the reduction in refined oil inventory pressure and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is fluctuating. After the OPEC+ increase in production and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the price has broken through an important support level, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a weak and volatile state. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and demand is still weak [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Refined oil is strong, so low - sulfur fuel oil may run strongly. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11]. - **PX**: Cost changes are limited, and the market is affected by sentiment and funds. The fundamentals are generally stable, with strong supply and demand, and it is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **PTA**: Driven by the upstream, the center of gravity has shifted upward. There is no unexpected reduction in supply, and it is expected to run slightly bullish in the short term [13]. - **Pure Benzene**: The port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it is running weakly. The spread between pure benzene and naphtha is at a low level in recent years, and the upward drive is currently insufficient [14][15]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of over - inventory, and it is oscillating weakly. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the pressure on the cost side of pure benzene is increasing [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply - demand and cost support are in a tug - of - war. It will maintain a low - level range - bound operation in the short term, with significant upward pressure [17][18]. - **Short - Fiber**: The cost is strong, but demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the upstream market and the processing fee may be compressed [21][22]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is passively following the rise of raw materials. The processing fee has a stronger support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Methanol**: High inventory is suppressing the market, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is oscillating and consolidating [25]. - **Urea**: Export information has boosted the spot market, but downstream transactions are cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Downstream transactions have increased, but the support from maintenance is limited. It is oscillating [27]. - **PP**: Production is still at a high level, and it is oscillating [28]. - **PL**: Inventory needs time to be digested, and it is oscillating [29]. - **PVC**: Weak fundamentals are suppressing the market. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the cost can support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations. It is oscillating, and the price may be stable [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.25 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 18 with a change of 18 [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has its own basis and warehouse receipt situation. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 28, and the number of warehouse receipts is 7690 [35]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 177 with a change of 49 [37]. 3.4 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on November 10, 2025, shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all have positive growth rates [278]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on November 10, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.39%, a 1 - month increase of 1.85%, and a year - to - date decrease of 5.45% [279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including their current situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks. It indicates that most products are expected to show a trend of oscillation, with some products having specific tendencies such as corn being expected to oscillate strongly, and pigs expected to oscillate weakly [1][8]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils - **Viewpoint**: Malaysian palm oil inventory in October was slightly higher than expected, while market sentiment improved. The market is expected to oscillate, with macro and industrial factors influencing the trend [5]. - **Logic**: Last Friday, US soybeans oscillated upwards. Recently, the expected domestic imported soybean arrivals are at a relatively high level in the same period, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. In terms of palm oil, the production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil in October increased significantly month - on - month, and the inventory was slightly higher than expected. In terms of rapeseed oil, as a large amount of Russian rapeseed comes on the market, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the future [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: The double meal market oscillated, waiting for the guidance of the supply - demand report. It is expected that both US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will oscillate. One can buy on dips but not chase highs [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US government shutdown ended, and the supply - demand report may be released. The market expects that the US soybean yield may be lowered. Domestically, in the short term, the reduction of soybean meal inventory in oil mills is slow, and the spot and basis are weak. In the medium term, the procurement of December shipments is progressing, but the January imports are still at a loss. In the long term, the supply in the fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to be sufficient, and there may be a soybean gap in March 2026 [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: With downstream stocking and upstream reluctance to sell, the futures price broke through upwards. It is expected to oscillate strongly [7][8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices mostly rose. On the supply side, farmers' reluctance to sell increased due to cold weather, and the selling pressure has not been realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the increase in trade costs further supports the price. In the fourth quarter, the market is still in the stage of new grain listing pressure, and the selling pressure after "freezing" needs attention [7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between supply and demand, and the pig price oscillates. It is expected to oscillate weakly, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [8]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, in the short term, the supply of commercial pigs in November is still large. In the medium term, the number of pigs for slaughter in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of sows is starting to decline, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of meat to pig price has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of slaughtered pigs has increased, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly following the macro - sentiment, and the sustainability needs attention. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend [9][11]. - **Logic**: The rubber market rebounded in line with the commodity rebound rhythm. The macro - sentiment was positive, and the valuation of RU was lower than NR. The supply in overseas producing areas was affected by weather, and the demand has not changed significantly recently [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It has temporarily stabilized, but the raw material pressure is still relatively large. It is recommended to short on rallies [12][13]. - **Logic**: The BR market rebounded slightly following natural rubber. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and temporarily stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Although there is short - term support at the bottom, the market atmosphere is still cautious [12][13]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuated narrowly and oscillated. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range; in the long term, it may oscillate strongly [13]. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the improvement of Sino - US trade relations is beneficial to cotton imports and textile exports in the long term but has limited short - term impact. In terms of supply and demand, the estimated output of Xinjiang cotton has been lowered, and the cost supports the cotton price, but there is a lack of new positive factors. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: It rebounded slightly. In the medium - long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production and export has ended, and the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere has started. India, Thailand, and Brazil are all expected to increase production. Domestically, the sugar production in the new season is expected to increase, and the import is expected to be tightened, but the sugar price may decline as the new sugar supply increases [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures drive the spot, and the market is dominated by funds. It is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [15]. - **Logic**: The futures market is rising strongly, but the spot market shows insufficient follow - up. There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the rise of packaging paper prices, the increase in import costs, and the expected good production and sales of white cards and cultural papers. The negative factors include low demand for softwood pulp, slow procurement by downstream enterprises, and the influence of warehouse receipts on pricing [15]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Supported by tenders, the market has stabilized. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [16]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the new production capacity has increased the supply pressure, and the tender delay has limited support for the price. In the later stage, the concentrated start of tenders in November is expected to drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but the market may decline in December and January [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Domestic timber is being delivered successively, and the log market is operating at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. - **Logic**: The spot market of logs is under downward pressure due to factors such as traders' active inventory reduction and weak sales of integrated materials. The foreign quotation of New Zealand logs has been lowered, but the trading volume is still poor. After the peak season, the inventory is expected to accumulate again, but the downward space is limited [19].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-11 供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：供需偏紧，碳酸锂继续领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局，库存去化加快；工 业硅和多晶硅供需也偏紧，主要是受益于西南地区枯水期减产；电解 钴产量快速下滑，过剩局面缓解。中短期来看，现实供需偏好，碳酸 锂去库加快，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属，关注碳酸锂短多机会。长期来 看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿 产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，碳酸锂长期供需走 向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：枯⽔期减产叠加仓单去化，硅价⽀撑较强。 多晶硅观点：产量边际下滑，多晶硅⾼位震荡。 碳酸锂观点：需求持续超预期，股期联动锂价⼤涨。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices have risen above $4,070 per ounce. Weakening US consumer confidence and employment indicators have strengthened expectations of interest rate cuts, partially offsetting the negative impact of the end of the government shutdown. The market's trading logic has returned to expectations of loose liquidity [1]. - The current gold price is driven by the resonance of "economic weakness" and "fiscal expansion". The silver price follows the rhythm of gold, with an expected monthly oscillation. In the long - term, gold is the anchor for silver pricing, and a contraction in the US dollar's credit is beneficial to physical currencies, with gold benefiting first and silver enjoying spill - over effects [3]. - The weekly price of London gold is expected to be in the range of $3,800 - $4,200 per ounce, and that of London silver in the range of $46 - $52 per ounce [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending a 40 - day government shutdown. Federal employees have returned to work, and lagging data will be released gradually [2]. - The US consumer confidence index dropped to a three - and - a - half - year low (50.3), and Challenger job cuts soared by 183% compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous cooling of the labor market [2]. - Sino - US trade flow has been weak, shipping capacity has dropped to the lowest level this year, and the WCI freight index has fallen from its mid - year high, showing a slowdown in foreign trade demand, which supports the expectation of a decline in US inflation and strengthens the Fed's logic of loosening [2]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the US economy is experiencing a "downward demand shock", wage growth has slowed, inflation is still under control, and the impact of tariffs is mainly limited to the commodity sector. She hinted that the December meeting will maintain a loose stance [2]. - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month in October, and global gold ETFs recorded net inflows in the past two days [2]. Price Logic Gold - The economic aspect: The decline in consumption and employment caused by the shutdown is gradually emerging. Alternative indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum. Sino - US shipping and trade flow declines support the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates in December. Mary Daly's statement further consolidates market bets on interest rate cuts [3]. - The fiscal aspect: The government's resumption of work brings one - time expenditure replenishment and the continuation of medical insurance subsidies. Short - term fiscal investment may push up long - term interest rates and cause short - term fluctuations, but in the medium - term, US debt expansion and deficit pressure will extend the loose cycle, which is beneficial to the reserve and hedging demand for gold [3]. Silver - The silver price follows the rhythm of gold, with an expected monthly oscillation. Focus on the trading window around the December FOMC meeting. In the long - term, gold is the anchor for silver pricing, and a contraction in the US dollar's credit benefits physical currencies, with gold benefiting first and silver enjoying spill - over effects. Interest rate cuts will drive the repair of the US fundamentals, and with global fiscal resonance expansion, the world may shift from a soft landing to a moderate recovery in 2026, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3][6]. Commodity Index - On November 10, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index increased by 0.65%, 0.71%, and 0.48% respectively [43]. Precious Metals Index - As of November 10, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 1.73%, a 5 - day increase of 2.85%, a 1 - month increase of 1.15%, and a year - to - date increase of 49.57% [45].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The stock market experiences sector rotation, with funds flowing from the technology sector to the chemical and consumer sectors, and the bond market shows a tendency of oscillating upward [2][3] - In the stock index futures market, it is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style allocation [3][7] - In the stock index options market, it is advisable to continue holding covered positions for additional income [3][8] - In the treasury bond futures market, the bond market is expected to oscillate upward [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in a U - shape, with a rotation to low - lying sectors. High - beta sectors retreated, while value and defensive sectors rose. Due to the policy window period and recent volume contraction, it is recommended to transfer technology funds to the price - rising chain and continue the dumbbell - style allocation. The operation suggestion is to hold a long position in the Dividend ETF + IM. [3][7] - The basis points of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month are - 8.85, 0.94, - 41, and - 54.45 respectively, changing by - 3.06, 0.49, - 5.09, and - 5.98 points compared to the previous trading day. The inter - period spreads (current month - next month) are 14.2, 0.8, 67, and 87.8 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of 0.6, 0.2, 5.2, and 6.4 points. The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM change by 10827, 5768, 8841, and - 1747 lots respectively. [7] Stock Index Options - The trading volume of each option variety rebounded slightly but remained at a low - liquidity level since October. The option sentiment index was weak, especially for technology - sector options. Option volatility varied, with the implied volatility of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF option strengthening and that of the CSI 300 stock index option weakening. It is recommended to continue holding covered positions for additional income. [8] Treasury Bond Futures - Most treasury bond futures rose yesterday. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts changed by 0.01%, 0.02%, 0.00%, and 0.22% respectively. The central bank's large - scale net injection supported the bond market. In October, the CPI improved, and the core CPI increased significantly. The central bank restarted treasury bond trading, and the short - term factors driving bond yields down were lacking. The stock - bond seesaw effect may weaken, and the restart of treasury bond trading may boost bond market sentiment. The operation suggestions include a trend strategy of oscillating upward, a hedging strategy of paying attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels, a basis strategy of looking for positive spreads and basis widening, and a curve strategy of appropriately paying attention to curve steepening. [4][9] - The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter are 58830, 49109, 24929, and 96097 lots respectively, with a one - day change of 3915, 4624, - 1360, and - 3686 lots. The positions are 231393, 138398, 67365, and 129150 lots respectively, with a one - day change of - 4216, - 4021, - 700, and 1495 lots. The inter - period spreads (current quarter - next quarter) are 0.225, 0.030, 0.052, and 0.250 yuan respectively, with a one - day change of - 0.025, - 0.010, 0, and 0.010 yuan. The cross - variety spreads and basis points also have corresponding changes. [8][9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes China's October new RMB loans, social financing scale, M2 money supply annual rate, the US October CPI annual rate, China's October total retail sales of consumer goods annual rate, and China's October industrial added value above designated size annual rate. [12] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The Asset Management Association of China is soliciting opinions on the "Guidelines for the Management of the Thematic Investment Style of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" to standardize the style drift problem of thematic investment funds. [13] - The State Council General Office issued measures to promote private investment, including expanding access, removing obstacles, and strengthening support. [13] - Two departments issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, with goals set for 2030 and 2035. [13] - China successfully launched the 13th group of low - orbit satellite Internet satellites. [14] - The US Senate reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown. [15] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided. [16][20][32]