1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [7] - Short - term outlook for each variety: - Steel: Oscillating [9] - Iron ore: Oscillating [10] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [11] - Coke: Oscillating [13] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [14] - Glass: Oscillating [15] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a minor impact on the futures prices of the sector, but the prices of sector varieties still have support due to the marginal improvement in the industrial chain during the peak season and the market's expectations for the fourth - quarter important meetings [2] - Overall, in the short term, the "anti - involution" factor causes market fluctuations, but based on the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals, the callback space is limited. With the positive expectations of domestic important meetings in the fourth quarter and overseas interest rate cuts, prices are expected to rise steadily [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Shipments have declined but remain at a high level. The arrival volume has been affected by typhoons. Demand remains high, and the pre - National Day restocking expectation still exists. The fundamentals are healthy, and prices are supported [3] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The work plan has a certain negative impact on the furnace charge end, but before the National Day, the demand is well - supported, and with the cost support from the stable and rising coal prices, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [3] - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" policy remains the main line. The fundamentals are healthy, and with the pre - National Day restocking by the mid - and downstream, the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price to some extent, but the future supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price may decline after the peak season [3] - Ferrosilicon: The peak - season expectation supports the price, but the future supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price may face downward pressure after the peak season [3] 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline oscillatingly [4] 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [7] 3.6 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: Spot market transactions are generally weak. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and inventories are at a moderately high level. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. Demand is supported in the short term, and inventories are at a moderate level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventories have increased slightly. The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices follow finished products [11] - Coke: Supply remains stable at a high level, and demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [13] - Coking coal: Supply recovery is slow, and demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [14] - Glass: Demand is in the off - season, and supply has uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Soda ash: Supply capacity has not been cleared, and demand is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to oscillate [18] - Manganese silicon: Market supply pressure is increasing, and the future price may decline [19] - Ferrosilicon: Supply is increasing, and demand growth is limited. The price may face downward pressure after the peak season [20]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-9-23 重点资讯： 1）美国两党的短期支出议案均未能在参议院闯关成功，让国会避免 政府关门的努力陷入僵局。现有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月 底。美国总统特朗普发出警告，称联邦政府可能因为两党之间的僵局 而关门。 2）美国总统特朗普签署行政令，大幅改革H-1B签证项目，要求申请 人缴纳10万美元费用，否则不得入境。这一新规于美东时间9月21日 凌晨00:01生效。律师建议已经拿到H-1B签证的申请者在9月21日之前 回到美国，在美国境内的H-1B签证持有者近期尽量不要随便进出美 国。 特朗普宣布推出名为"特朗普金卡"的签证计划，向全球富人 出售美国居住权，个人申请者最高支付500万美元，可最长停留美国 270天，无需为美国境外收入纳税，企业可无限量为员工个人办理金 卡。特朗普表示，科技高管们会对金卡项目"非常满意"，因为这将 允许他们引入更多员工。美国商务部长卢特尼克预计，该签证计划将 为美国政府筹集超过1000亿美元。 3）特朗普周二将与阿拉伯国家领导人会晤，商讨加沙停火。 价格逻辑： 周一贵金属再度冲高，上周靴子落地 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the strong style is narrowing towards technology - growth stocks. The market should actively adhere to the growth style and allocate long positions in IM [1][8]. - For stock index options, a double - buying strategy should be deployed before the holiday. If there are equity holdings, the options still maintain a defensive mindset, and the double - selling strategy is not recommended before the holiday [2][8]. - Regarding treasury bond futures, in the short term, monetary policy may still mainly use structural tools, and the bond market remains cautious [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, and the market volume shrank to 2.14 trillion yuan. Funds concentrated on the technology sector. The STAR 50 continued to outperform, driven by three factors: positive technology events, the continuous outperformance of heavy - weight stocks in the STAR 50 and ChiNext Index, and increased enthusiasm for theme - based industry fund allocations [1][8]. - **Suggestions**: Allocate long positions in IM [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The equity market oscillated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly by 0.22%. The option market turnover dropped significantly below 10 billion yuan, and the PCR of open interest showed mixed trends. Some options' implied volatility increased instead of decreasing [2][8]. - **Suggestions**: Adopt a hedging and defensive strategy. A double - buying strategy may be used before the holiday, and the double - selling strategy is not recommended [2][8]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts increased by 0.20%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.22% respectively. The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations and market expectations for loose monetary policy boosted bullish sentiment [3][9]. - **Suggestions**: Adopt a cautious approach for trend strategies; pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels for hedging strategies; appropriately focus on basis widening for basis strategies; expect the yield curve to remain steep [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - It lists economic data release schedules from September 22 to 25, 2025, including China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's September manufacturing PMI flash estimate, the US August new home sales annualized total, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Overseas macro news: On September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with President Trump, reaching important consensus, which laid a strategic foundation for the stable development of China - US relations [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring data for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers outlooks for individual metals: - Copper: Expected to be in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish, suggesting short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines [6][7][8] - Aluminum: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] - Zinc: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] - Lead: Expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: Expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, with a wait - and - see approach in the medium - to long - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: Expected to be in a volatile state [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall for non - ferrous metals: Before the National Day holiday, downstream restocking is expected, and non - ferrous metals may stabilize and rebound. In the short - to medium - term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1] - For individual metals: - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions, along with the approaching peak demand season, support copper prices. However, factors such as unexpected tariff policies and weak domestic demand recovery pose risks [5][6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation remains weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. Prices are under pressure until factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions occur [6][7][8] - Aluminum: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Zinc: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Lead: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp; the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended operations; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year; on September 22, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper and copper inventory changed [5] - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions support copper prices. The approaching peak demand season increases downstream restocking willingness. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may continue to be strong [6] - Outlook: Copper may show a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6] 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On September 22, the spot price of alumina in different regions changed; an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased; the alumina warehouse receipt increased [6][7] - Logic: The fundamentals remain weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. The price is under pressure until there are factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions [6][7][8] - Outlook: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish. Consider short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On September 22, the price of SMM AOO aluminum, aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipt changed; in August, China's aluminum and its products exports decreased year - on - year; the Fed cut interest rates; an Indonesian aluminum smelter plans to be put into production [9] - Logic: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On September 22, the price of Baotai ADC12, the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and SMM AOO aluminum, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt changed; in August, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year; the EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports [10][11] - Logic: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On September 22, the spot price of zinc in different regions and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory changed; CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement in the fourth quarter of 2025 [12] - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On September 22, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the price difference between primary and secondary lead, the price of SMM1 lead ingot, and lead ingot inventory changed; downstream lead - acid battery enterprises are restocking before the National Day [13][14] - Logic: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Outlook: Moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On September 22, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt decreased; the price of high - nickel pig iron is supported by cost and the peak season, but the demand is weak; some nickel - related events such as corporate acquisitions and land seizures occurred [16][17] - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Outlook: Wide - range volatile in the short - term, wait - and - see in the medium - to long - term [17][18] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased; the spot price difference between Foshan Hongwang 304 and the stainless steel main contract, and the transaction prices of high - nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia were reported [19][22] - Logic: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term [19][22] 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On September 22, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin positions decreased, and the spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [23] - Logic: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] - Outlook: Volatile [23] 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals for monitoring (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][26][40] 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not detailed - Special Index: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.44% to 2510.95, the industrial products index decreased by 0.34% to 2246.26 [151] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on September 22 was 2385.20, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.33% [153]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market is expected to maintain a short - term bearish and long - term bullish pattern. In the short term, there is a harvest pressure from the concentrated listing of new grains, with strong expectations of restorative yield increase and lower costs driving prices down. In the long term, prices are not pessimistic under the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks [1][2]. - For other agricultural products: - Oils are likely to continue to oscillate in the short term and may rise again in the medium term due to factors such as the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September, potential reduction in US soybean yields, and increased overseas biodiesel demand [5]. - Protein meals are expected to oscillate and rise. The market is dominated by fundamentals, with US soybeans entering the harvest period and South American sowing progress uncertain [6]. - The hog market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term. Supply is abundant in the short and medium term, while the long - term outlook may improve if the "anti - involution" policy effectively reduces production capacity [8]. - Rubber prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, supported by data revisions and short - term fundamentals [9][10]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to maintain an interval oscillation pattern, with no significant changes in short - term fundamentals and raw materials [12]. - Cotton prices are expected to adjust downward in the medium term due to the expected large yield increase in Xinjiang cotton in the new season, but may have short - term rebound opportunities [12]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the long term and downward - seeking support in the short term due to the expected supply surplus in the new season [14]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the driving force and valuation unable to provide consistent guidance [15]. - Double - gum paper is expected to oscillate narrowly, and short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. - Logs are expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term, with marginal improvement in fundamentals but lack of strong upward driving force and pressure from the delivery side [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Corn - **Current Situation**: Domestic spot prices are differentiated. Northeast deep - processing prices are falling due to increased arrivals, while port prices are strong due to high shipping demand. New grain listing is concentrated in eastern Heilongjiang, and there are issues with grain quality in North China [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: There is a harvest pressure from new grain listing, and the addition of a new Wednesday directional auction session for imported corn with lower reserve prices has increased pessimism. Consider short - selling opportunities and reverse - spread arbitrage [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the scenario of tightening carry - over stocks, prices are not pessimistic, and the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [2]. 3.2 Oils - **Current Situation**: Last Friday, US beans and crude oil prices fell. The area affected by drought in US soybeans has expanded, and the excellent - good rate has been continuously lowered. Malaysian palm oil production in September is expected to decline month - on - month, and exports have increased. Domestic soybean imports are expected to seasonally decline, and soybean oil inventories may peak [5]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, continue to pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower support. In the medium term, prices may rise again due to multiple factors [5]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Current Situation**: International soybean trade premiums have increased. US soybeans are entering the harvest period, and South American sowing progress is slow. Domestically, oil mills are operating at a high rate, and downstream is stocking up before the festival. The import volume of soybeans from September to November is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: The market is dominated by fundamentals. US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and double - meal prices are expected to oscillate and rise. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910, and add positions at 2980 - 3000 when the market stabilizes [6]. 3.4 Hogs - **Current Situation**: The National Development and Reform Commission is continuing to purchase 15,000 tons of hogs for storage. In the short term, the supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is affected by factors such as the increase in the ratio of live pigs to meat and the narrowing of the price difference between fat and lean pigs. The inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are weakly oscillating. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, prices may gradually strengthen in 2026 [8]. 3.5 Rubber - **Current Situation**: Rubber prices first fell and then rose, mainly due to the downward revision of inventory data. Fundamentally, the spot is strong, inventory is being reduced, and the basis is continuously narrowing. Supply may be affected by precipitation at the end of September, and downstream procurement willingness needs to be observed [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term, and a short - term long - buying strategy can be considered during the callback in September [10]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Current Situation**: The BR disk fluctuates with natural rubber prices, and there are no major contradictions. The absolute price and operating logic have not changed much recently. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing [12]. - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamentals and raw materials are expected to have no significant changes, and the disk is expected to oscillate within the range [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **Current Situation**: The current contradiction in the domestic market is between the tight inventory at the end of the old - new year conversion period and the expected yield increase in the new season. The demand has seasonally improved, but the upward driving force is limited. The new cotton harvest is about to start, and the purchase price may first rise and then fall [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, pay attention to the support at 13,500 yuan/ton and short - term rebound opportunities. In the medium term, prices are expected to adjust downward due to the expected yield increase [12]. 3.8 Sugar - **Current Situation**: Last week, Zhengzhou sugar prices moved down, breaking through the 5,500 yuan/ton platform. The international trade flow is loose, and domestic sugar imports increased in August [14]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to the expected supply surplus in the new season. In the short term, prices are expected to seek support downward [14]. 3.9 Pulp - **Current Situation**: Pulp futures are oscillating at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price of Russian needles. The US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the changes [15]. - **Outlook**: The driving force and valuation cannot provide consistent guidance, and the futures are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.10 Double - gum Paper - **Current Situation**: After listing, the disk has been oscillating around 4,200 yuan, lacking a substantial driving force. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from publishers' tenders has not started [16]. - **Outlook**: Short - term unilateral strategies can consider operating within the 4100 - 4400 range [16]. 3.11 Logs - **Current Situation**: The disk first rose and then fell, and the 09 contract was smoothly delivered. The downstream sales have improved since mid - September, and the delivery logic has a negative impact on the disk [18]. - **Outlook**: The buyer's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the disk is expected to oscillate around 800 in the short term [18].

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed trends, with precious metals generally rising - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250923 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening up policy space for China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential elasticity of future interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the actual transmission to the US fundamentals after the rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market is fully expecting a 25bps rate cut. The US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October should be monitored. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds from existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place more quickly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. In addition to seasonal factors, the increasing proportion of "debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and combined with the 5.3% growth rate in the first half of the year, the annual target of 5% can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [8]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. However, in the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and the economic recovery expected driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and the weak US dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. In addition, after the rise of domestic interest rates, the allocation value of bonds increases, and bonds should be allocated evenly with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, and interest rate cuts are the main logic in the fourth quarter, with the risk of premature trading of the recovery expectation [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's decision will lead to global liquidity easing and create policy space for China. The market is dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the Fed's independence risk may affect future rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25bps rate cut. Monitor the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data. Historically, it takes 2 - 3 months for rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In Q3, China's economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. "Debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient Q4 infrastructure funds. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [8]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, risk assets will be supported by global liquidity and fiscal leverage. Medium - term (Q4 to H1 next year): equities > commodities > bonds. Short - term in Q4: stock market volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals favored, weak US dollar continues but at a slower pace. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after interest rate rise, and should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, with interest rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery trading [8]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the attenuation of incremental funds [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the deterioration of options market liquidity [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The dovish expectations are driving the price up. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The return of peak - season demand has improved the fundamentals marginally. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable overall. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [9]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and downstream restocking has begun. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has increased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have rebounded in tandem. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The decline in the peak - season futures market is limited, but there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The peak - season expectations support the futures market, but the supply - demand outlook is still pessimistic. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Supply disruptions are awaited, and demand has improved slightly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand has increased month - on - month, but supply is still growing. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply disruptions in copper mines have occurred, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends [9]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: The supply of secondary lead has decreased, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures market has risen significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has continued to increase, suppressing the upward space of the silicon price. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - **LPG**: The valuation has been restored, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is running below the 3500 pressure level. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have not had a significant impact, and the fuel oil futures price has weakened. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is following the weakening trend of crude oil. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Olefins and port inventory are dragging down the market, and there is still a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [11]. - **Urea**: The price is under pressure along the cost line, and there is a risk of an over - reaction in sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the urea export window will be extended, quota adjustments, and the authenticity of the seventh Indian tender [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is greatly affected by the expected future inventory build - up, and the willingness to hold positions is low. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory trends, and device implementation [11]. - **PX**: The postponement of device maintenance and capacity expansion have weakened the supply - demand balance, and the high valuation is being corrected. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees have increased the willingness of enterprises to cut production and conduct maintenance. Although short - term supply - demand conditions have improved, the long - term oversupply situation cannot be reversed. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved marginally, but the improvement is limited, and high supply poses potential risks. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [11]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: There is short - term concentrated replenishment, but the medium - to - long - term demand rebound height is uncertain, and profits are fluctuating. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprises' production - cut targets and terminal demand [11]. - **Propylene**: The price difference between propylene and PP is oscillating in the range of 500 - 550. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [11]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and PVC is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expectation of alumina production resumption has increased, and caustic soda prices have rebounded. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [11]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level for oils and fats. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Downstream price - fixing for pre - holiday stocking has led to a rebound at the lower end of the trading range. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade frictions [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Hogs**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are weak. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The sentiment is bearish, and rubber prices have declined significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakness of natural rubber has dragged down synthetic rubber. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and sugar prices have continued to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to imports [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and pulp is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [11]. - **Logs**: The commodity market has adjusted, and logs are expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to shipping volume and shipment volume [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 31.79 billion, a decrease of 29.04 billion compared to the previous week. As of September 21, the progress of net financing of national bonds plus new local bond issuance was 81.6% [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bond Issuance - This week, the new special bond issuance was 97.8 billion, a decrease of 34 billion compared to the previous week [3]. - As of September 21, the progress of new special bond issuance was 79.8% [3]. - As of September 21, the cumulative new special bond issuance in September was 247.5 billion [5]. New General Bond Issuance - This week, the new general bond issuance was 20.7 billion, an increase of 6 billion compared to the previous week [7]. - As of September 21, the progress of new general bond issuance was 82.0% [9]. - As of September 21, the cumulative new general bond issuance in September was 35.4 billion [5]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 3.09 billion, a decrease of 161.9 billion compared to the previous week [11]. - As of September 21, the progress of new local bond issuance was 80.2% [11]. National Bond Net Financing - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 287.1 billion, a decrease of 128.5 billion compared to the previous week [14]. - As of September 21, the progress of national bond net financing was 82.8% [16].

Report Summary 1. Key Data for This Week - New special bond issuance this week was 97.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 34 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - New general bond issuance this week was 20.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6 billion yuan from the previous week [7] - Local government bond net financing scale this week was 3.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 161.9 billion yuan from the previous week [11] - Treasury bond net financing scale this week was 287.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 128.5 billion yuan from the previous week [14] - Government bond net financing this week was 317.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 290.4 billion yuan from the previous week [18] 2. Issuance Progress as of September 21 - New special bond issuance progress was 79.8% [3] - New general bond issuance progress was 82.0% [9] - New local government bond issuance progress was 80.2% [11] - Treasury bond net financing progress was 82.8% [16] - Treasury bond net financing + new local government bond issuance progress was 81.6% [18] 3. Cumulative Issuance in September as of September 21 - Cumulative new special bond issuance in September was 247.5 billion yuan [5] - Cumulative new general bond issuance in September was 35.4 billion yuan [5]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly data report on scrap steel, presenting data on arrival volume, daily consumption, inventory, and inventory available days of different types of steel mills [2] Key Data Arrival Volume (AV5D) - On September 18, 2025, the arrival volume of 255 steel mills in total was 50.4668, with a week - on - week difference of 0.2245 and a year - on - year difference of 17.1103. The arrival volume of 132 long - process steel mills was 25.3458, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.0995 and a year - on - year difference of 8.2405. The arrival volume of 89 short - process steel mills was 16.334, with a week - on - week difference of 0.089 and a year - on - year difference of 7.129. The arrival volume of 29 full - process steel mills was 8.227, with a week - on - week difference of 0.231 and a year - on - year difference of 1.6028 [3] Daily Consumption - On September 18, 2025, the daily consumption of 255 steel mills in total was 53.0727, with a week - on - week difference of - 1.6343 and a year - on - year difference of 13.4566. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 26.4327, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.2493 and a year - on - year difference of 7.0816. The daily consumption of 89 short - process steel mills was 16.035, with a week - on - week difference of - 1.43 and a year - on - year difference of 4.38. The daily consumption of 29 full - process steel mills was 9.975, with a week - on - week difference of 0.045 and a year - on - year difference of 1.845 [3] Inventory - On September 18, 2025, the inventory of 255 steel mills in total was 432.4728, with a week - on - week difference of 3.9628 and a year - on - year difference of 59.9178. The inventory of 132 long - process steel mills was 219.3378, with a week - on - week difference of 3.9218 and a year - on - year difference of 78.8978. The inventory of 89 short - process steel mills was 116.185, with a week - on - week difference of 2.701 and a year - on - year difference of 7.504. The inventory of 29 full - process steel mills was 91.23, with a week - on - week difference of - 2.57 and a year - on - year difference of - 27.184 [3] Inventory Available Days - On September 18, 2025, the inventory available days of 255 steel mills in total was 8.15, with a week - on - week difference of 0.32 and a year - on - year difference of - 1.26. The inventory available days of 132 long - process steel mills was 8.3, with a week - on - week difference of 0.22 and a year - on - year difference of 1.04. The inventory available days of 89 short - process steel mills was 7.25, with a week - on - week difference of 0.75 and a year - on - year difference of - 2.08. The inventory available days of 29 full - process steel mills was 9.15, with a week - on - week difference of - 0.3 and a year - on - year difference of - 5.42 [3] Data Presentation - The report also includes seasonal charts of scrap steel weekly data, showing the arrival volume, daily consumption, inventory, and inventory available days of different types of steel mills from 2021 to 2025 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold experienced short - term profit - taking after the Fed's September rate cut, but maintains a long - term bullish outlook. The Fed's dot - plot shows a further 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, which, along with other factors, supports the mid - term upward momentum of gold prices [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday and hinted at further rate cuts for the rest of the year in response to concerns about the weakening job market [2]. - US President Trump paid a second state visit to the UK and praised the special relationship between the two countries [2]. - US Congressman John Moolenaar expressed concerns about the TikTok framework agreement between China and the US [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold has been oscillating in the range of 3,660 - 3,700 after the Fed's September rate cut. It has risen about 39% since the beginning of the year, and although there is short - term profit - taking, mid - term upward momentum remains [3]. - Driving factors include the Fed's expected 50bp rate cut this year and continued easing in 2025, global central banks' continuous gold purchases, Trump's pressure on the Fed's independence, and escalating geopolitical conflicts [3]. - The global ETF gold holdings are still about 3,000 tons, with room to recover to the 2020 high of 3,500 tons [3]. - In the short term, focus on the 3500 - 3800 oscillation range, and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. 3.3 Outlook - Weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3500, 3800], and weekly London silver spot in the range of [39, 45] [3]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities on September 18, 2025: the commodity 20 index was 2489.53, down 1.04%; the industrial products index was 2246.67, down 1.06% [42]. 3.5 Precious Metals Index - On September 18, 2025, the precious metals index was 2878.86, with a daily decline of 1.22%, a 5 - day decline of 1.53%, a 1 - month increase of 6.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 30.12% [44].