1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The overseas market is facing a weak US economic fundamental. The Sino - US tariff negotiation period is postponed to November 12, and the US CPI in July met expectations. In the future, with tariffs taking effect in August, the marginal inflection point of the previous concentrated overseas demand release is approaching, and the economic fundamental will test the sustainability of market sentiment. Personnel changes within the Fed and next week's US CPI data will guide market expectations of interest - rate cuts and risk appetite [7]. - Domestic macro: At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8%. From January to July, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan; RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 9.66 trillion yuan. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year, mainly relying on the strong demand from non - US markets to offset the decline in exports to the US. However, this good performance may be due to pre - tariff rush shipments, and future exports face the risks of decline and restricted re - export trade [7]. - Asset views: Domestically, reduce the allocation of domestic equities and wait for the policy and profit - repair window in the second half of the month; maintain the allocation of commodities but focus on the infrastructure and export chain, and maintain the allocation of gold. Overseas, reduce the allocation of US stocks due to high valuations and maintain the allocation of US bonds; slightly increase the allocation of RMB funds to relieve pressure from the weak US dollar, and reduce the allocation of US dollar money - market funds to be vigilant against interest - rate cut games. Overall, maintain a defensive layout and focus on the inflection points of policies and data in the second half of August [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4163.8, down 0.17% daily, up 1.97% weekly, 2.63% monthly, 11.36% quarterly, and 6.19% year - to - date; SSE 50 futures closed at 2829.6, up 0.38% daily, up 1.59% weekly, 1.89% monthly, 7.67% quarterly, and 5.66% year - to - date; CSI 500 futures closed at 6380.2, down 1.11% daily, up 2.46% weekly, 4.18% monthly, 16.03% quarterly, and 12.07% year - to - date; CSI 1000 futures closed at 6929.2, down 1.04% daily, up 2.88% weekly, 5.98% monthly, 19.75% quarterly, and 18.48% year - to - date [3]. - Treasury futures: 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102.348, down 0.02% daily, down 0.04% weekly, flat monthly, down 0.20% quarterly, and down 0.61% year - to - date; 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.665, down 0.08% daily, down 0.17% weekly, down 0.06% monthly, down 0.53% quarterly, and down 0.82% year - to - date; 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.325, down 0.10% daily, down 0.29% weekly, down 0.15% monthly, down 0.55% quarterly, and down 0.55% year - to - date; 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 117.88, down 0.33% daily, down 1.21% weekly, down 1.04% monthly, down 1.73% quarterly, and down 0.80% year - to - date [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.7884, unchanged daily, down 0.49% weekly, down 2.26% monthly, down 1.80% quarterly, and down 9.86% year - to - date; the US dollar central parity rate was 7.1337 [3]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.51; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.73, up 0.8 bp daily, up 3.4 bp weekly, up 3 bp monthly, up 7.3 bp quarterly, and up 0.1 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.29, up 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 9 bp monthly, unchanged quarterly, and down 26 bp year - to - date; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.57, up 6 bp daily, unchanged weekly, up 13 bp monthly, up 2 bp quarterly, and up 24 bp year - to - date; the 10 - year breakeven inflation rate was 2.38, down 2 bp daily, up 2 bp weekly, down 4 bp monthly, up 11 bp quarterly, and up 7 bp year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Commodity Market Fluctuations - Metals: Gold closed at 778.7, up 0.13% daily, down 1.16% weekly, up 1.09% monthly, down 1.49% quarterly, and up 26.08% year - to - date; silver closed at 9286, down 0.15% daily, up 0.09% weekly, up 3.09% monthly, up 11.56% quarterly, and up 24.31% year - to - date; copper closed at 78950, down 0.54% daily, up 0.59% weekly, up 1.17% monthly, up 2.73% quarterly, and up 7.02% year - to - date; aluminum closed at 20715, down 0.36% daily, up 0.15% weekly, up 1.00% monthly, up 4.12% quarterly, and up 4.73% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 62.74, down 0.54% daily, down 0.96% weekly, down 9.54% monthly, down 0.68% quarterly, and down 12.70% year - to - date; ICE Brent crude oil closed at 65.74, down 0.56% daily, down 0.87% weekly, down 8.41% monthly, down 0.14% quarterly, and down 12.15% year - to - date; NYMEX natural gas closed at 2.819, up 1.33% daily, down 5.91% weekly, down 9.06% monthly, down 10.73% quarterly, and down 22.41% year - to - date; etc. [3]. - Agriculture: CBOT soybeans closed at 1042, up 0.94% daily, up 5.63% weekly, up 5.23% monthly, down 1.63% quarterly, and up 3.17% year - to - date; CBOT corn closed at 396.75, up 0.57% daily, down 2.28% weekly, down 4.11% monthly, down 18.03% quarterly, and down 13.51% year - to - date; CBOT wheat closed at 507, up 0.45% daily, down 1.65% weekly, down 3.24% monthly, down 6.93% quarterly, and down 7.99% year - to - date; etc. [3]. 3.3 Asset Views and Short - Term Judgments - Financial: For stock index futures, growth opportunities are spreading, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for stock index options, offensive strategies are being laid out, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for Treasury futures, the bond market remains under pressure, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are oscillating strongly, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward [8]. - Shipping: For container shipping to Europe, focus on the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with a short - term judgment of volatile [8]. - Black building materials: Steel prices are fluctuating due to cost changes, with a short - term judgment of volatile; iron ore prices are oscillating with a slight decline in hot - metal production, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: Copper prices are oscillating at a high level due to the extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension, with a short - term judgment of volatile; aluminum prices are continuing to recover with fluctuating sentiment, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [8]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil prices are facing supply pressure with eased geopolitical concerns, with a short - term judgment of volatile downward; LPG prices are stable in cracking spreads supported by chemical demand, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10]. - Agriculture: For oils and fats, the short - term market sentiment is cooling, but there is a high probability of continued strength in the medium term, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward; for protein meals, the bullish sentiment is being released, and the market may oscillate and adjust, with a short - term judgment of volatile; etc. [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it suggests that investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of weakening volatility, using the 5 - day moving average as a stop - loss point [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - EIA and IEA hold an oversupply view of the future crude oil market, which has dampened market sentiment. The absolute value of oil prices has dropped to the lowest since June 5, and the monthly spread, taking Brent as an example, has fallen to the lowest since May. Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains [2]. - When raw material prices fluctuate significantly, the supply - demand relationship of chemical products becomes secondary. Most chemical products' basis has slightly increased after the sharp decline on August 14. The operating rates of polyester downstream industries and the benzene - ethylene chain have improved to some extent. Caustic soda is the strongest - performing variety on August 14 [3]. - Overall, the oil and chemical industry is expected to be in a state of weakening volatility. Each specific product has its own market characteristics and trends, and investors are advised to use a weakening volatility mindset for investment [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical concerns have eased, but supply pressure remains. The meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 will influence the future sanctions on Russian oil. OPEC + production increases have led to supply pressure, and crude oil inventories face dual pressures. The short - term outlook is volatile, and the market should pay attention to the progress of US - Russia negotiations [9]. - **Logic**: OPEC + production increases have prevented seasonal declines in crude oil inventories in the past two months. Overseas gasoline inventories are high, and future crude oil inventories will face pressure from the peak - to - decline of refinery operations and accelerated OPEC + production increases. If the meeting is optimistic about ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices are weakly volatile. The main contract closed at 3472 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in different regions vary [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has significantly lowered oil price expectations. After the meeting between Russian and US leaders, the market will refocus on negative factors. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is high, driving refinery operations to return. Demand for asphalt is still not optimistic, and its current valuation is relatively high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil is weakly volatile, with the main contract closing at 2700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Logic**: EIA has lowered oil price expectations and raised OPEC production forecasts. The supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. China has raised the import tariff on fuel oil, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is weak. Although the cracking spread is high, the driving factors are weakening [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly, with the main contract closing at 3449 yuan/ton [11]. - **Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although it is affected by the increase in diesel cracking spread, it faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. 3.1.5 Other Chemical Products - Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and price trends. For example, methanol's port inventory continues to accumulate, and it fluctuates downward; urea is temporarily undisturbed and the market is weak; ethylene glycol's cost support weakens and port inventory accumulates; etc. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of different varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.04 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also show different trends. For example, asphalt's basis is 168 with a change of 31, and the number of warehouse receipts is 73550 [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 220 with a change of 110 [40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the weekly data of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron alloys in China from August 8th to August 15th, 2025, including daily average production, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Daily Average Production**: The daily average production increased from 27,975 tons/day on August 8th to 29,580 tons/day on August 15th, with a week - on - week increase of 1,605 tons [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate rose from 43.43% to 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32 percentage points [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand increased from 125,200 tons to 125,382 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182 tons [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory decreased from 161,500 tons to 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons [2]. Silicon - Iron - **Daily Average Production**: The daily average production increased from 15,590 tons/day on August 8th to 16,125 tons/day on August 15th, with a week - on - week increase of 235 tons [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate rose from 34.32% to 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand increased from 20,266.3 tons to 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 tons [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory decreased from 71,770 tons to 65,180 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,590 tons [2].

2025年08月15日 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-08-13 | 环比 | | 煤矿精煤库存 | 山西 | 30. 61 | 35. 25 | 4.64 | | | 山东 | 40. 4 | 31. 9 | -8.5 | | | 内蒙古 | 6.2 | 8.55 | 2. 35 | | | 河北 | 23. 82 | 24. 98 | 1.16 | | | 陕西 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0. 3 | | | 其他 | 10. 81 | 10. 71 | -0. 1 | | | 合计 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 13, both equity indices and CGB futures rose; oils and oilseeds led the gains, while energy and chemicals performed weakly [10][12]. - China implements the fiscal interest subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and operating loans in the service industry [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 期货异动 3.1.1 Overview 行情概述 - On August 13, equity indices and CGB futures rose, oils and oilseeds led gains, energy and chemicals were weak. Top gainers were rapeseed oil (3.6% rise, 23.1% open interest increase m - o - m), soybean meal (2.9% rise, 10.2% open interest increase m - o - m), and No.2 soybean (2.7% rise, 0.2% open interest decrease m - o - m). Top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (5.6% fall, 8.6% open interest increase m - o - m), silicon metal (3.4% fall, 2.0% open interest increase m - o - m), and coking coal (3.0% fall, 4.6% open interest decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise 上涨品种 3.1.2.1 Rapeseed Oil 菜籽油 & Rapeseed Meal 菜籽粕 & Rapeseed 油菜籽 - On August 13, rapeseed oil rose 3.6% to 10064 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal rose 2.3% to 2723 yuan/ton, and rapeseed rose 2.2% to 5136 yuan/ton. On August 12, China announced a preliminary ruling on anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, imposing a 75.8% deposit. China's high dependence on Canadian rapeseed imports led to market concerns about supply of rapeseed meal and oil, causing price increases. Short - term market sentiment for rapeseed meal may remain strong, but mid - term substitutes may cause negative feedback, and after October it enters the off - season. Anti - dumping ruling is beneficial to domestic rapeseed oil prices, and factors like expected increase in overseas biodiesel demand for palm and soybean oil, palm oil entering production reduction season after September, and high market expectation of Fed rate cut in September may drive oils to operate strongly later [15][16][19]. 3.1.2.2 Copper 铜 - On August 13, copper rose 0.6% to 79380 yuan/ton. Supply constraints remain and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally and U.S. tariffs on copper are unfavorable. Copper may show a fluctuating trend. Copper ore and blister copper processing fees are low, raw material supply is tight, and new low long - term processing fees increase smelter production cut risks. Downstream replenishment willingness is weakening, copper inventory is rising, and price upward momentum is weakening [26][27][29]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop 下跌品种 3.1.3.1 SCFIS(Europe) - On August 13, SCFIS(Europe) fell 5.6% to 1333.1 points. Prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to shorting the October and December contracts on rallies. The China - U.S. economic and trade talks in Stockholm suspended the 24% tariff for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, retaining 10%. In weeks 34 - 35, shipping companies face increasing cargo solicitation pressure, and ship transfer to the Europe route in October may exacerbate pessimistic expectations. MSK freight rate fell sharply this week, and the SCFIS index at the end of August will narrow the disk discount. August - September is the traditional price decline cycle, and full shipping schedules may bring downward pressure to break below $2000/FEU. Attention should be paid to HPL's additional ships and shipping companies' suspension plans around the National Day [31][33][34]. 3.2 China News 中国要闻 3.2.1 Macro News 宏观新闻 - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumer Loans". The scope includes single - transaction consumption under 50,000 yuan and key - area consumption over 50,000 yuan. For consumption over 50,000 yuan, the subsidy is capped at 50,000 yuan. After the policy expires, extending the period and expanding the scope may be studied based on implementation effects [38][39]. 3.2.2 Industry News 行业新闻 - On August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to a nearly 4 - year high, and the two - market turnover exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, returning to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [39]. - The Korea Exchange will launch semiconductor index futures and other derivatives [39].

Group 1: Report Core View - In the week ending August 8, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.036 million barrels, mainly driven by a 699,000 - barrel - per - day increase in net crude oil imports. Weekly crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased from 96.9% to 96.4%, but refinery - sector demand remained relatively strong. Gasoline inventories declined seasonally, diesel inventories continued to rise from the bottom, and the total inventories of other petroleum products increased seasonally. The total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased, and the weekly data was bearish [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 3.036 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.029 million barrels previously [6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 445,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 453,000 barrels previously [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 226,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 235,000 barrels previously [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 792,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.323 million barrels previously [6]. - US diesel inventory change: increased by 714,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 565,000 barrels previously [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 620,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 970,000 barrels previously [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 66,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 239,000 barrels previously [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.522 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.054 million barrels previously [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.327 million barrels per day, compared with 13.284 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 21.357 million barrels per day, compared with 20.122 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9 million barrels per day, compared with 9.04 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 3.701 million barrels per day, compared with 3.72 million barrels per day previously [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 6.92 million barrels per day, compared with 5.962 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US crude oil exports: 3.577 million barrels per day, compared with 3.318 million barrels per day previously [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 17.18 million barrels per day, compared with 17.124 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 96.4%, compared with 96.9% previously [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market's expectation of price support at $2000/FEU has failed. With demand entering the off - season, supply vessel schedules being full, and the impact of overtime ships, the freight rate is accelerating to decline. The market may continue to be weak in the future, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Freight Rates - MSK's 35 - week opening rate rose to $2340/FEU, while HPL - Q0's quote dropped to $2435/FEU, a $400 decrease from the previous level [3] - OCEAN's 34 - week freight rate was between $2800 - $2900/FEU. EMC's online rate remained at $3010 - $3160/FEU, CMA's at $2920 - $3020/FEU, and FAL's 3 - route rate dropped to $2520/FEU and then rebounded [3] - MSC's rate dropped to $2840/FEU, while ONE and HMM maintained their rates at $2743 and $2700/FEU respectively [3] Market Performance - MSK's opening freight rate dropped from $2600/FEU to $2200/FEU. HPL's online rate for the 22nd ship was $1800/FEU, and CMA's online rate dropped from $2920 to $2520/FEU, causing the futures market to break below 1400 points and reach a minimum of 1326.7 points [2] - The trading volume of the October contract rose to 66,400 lots, with an increase of 4786 lots in open interest. It closed at 1333.1 points, down 5.57%. The December contract closed at 1700.1 points, down 1.19% [2] Fundamental Information - Wan Hai will upgrade the Red Sea route AR2. Starting from mid - September, the new FM1 Asia - Mediterranean route will use the Suez Canal, adding direct routes to important ports such as Alexandria in Egypt and Izmit and Istanbul in Turkey [3] Macroeconomic Data - In August, the ZEW economic sentiment index in the Eurozone was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. OPEC's monthly report raised the Eurozone's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 1% to 1.2% and for 2026 from 1.1% to 1.2% [3] Trading Logic and Outlook - The market's expectation of price support at $2000/FEU has failed. With demand in the off - season, supply vessel schedules being full, and the impact of overtime ships, the freight rate is accelerating to decline. The traditional price - decline period from August to September requires OCEAN and PA to follow the downward trend. The accelerated decline of SCFIS in the second half of August may narrow the futures discount [4] - The market outlook is weak and volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures are "volatile and bullish", "volatile", and "volatile and cautious" respectively [7][8][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend, and the bond market sentiment has improved. The sentiment in the equity market has entered a positive feedback loop. Before the September military parade, a positive attitude towards the equity market is maintained. The bond market needs to remain cautious overall, but the financial data structure may support the bullish sentiment in the bond market to some extent [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Viewpoint**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high, and the trading volume exceeded 2 trillion. The basis, spread, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed. The trading volume of the two markets reached a new high, approaching 2.2 trillion. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high in October 2024, and the ChiNext Index was close to the previous high. Before the September military parade, a positive attitude towards the equity market is maintained due to factors such as the Fed's expected interest - rate cut, policy support, and positive capital flow signals. The short - term strategy is to follow the trend [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM contracts [7] 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Viewpoint**: Continue to hold the offensive strategy. The equity market continued to fluctuate strongly, and the ChiNext Index rose significantly. The trading volume of options exceeded 10 billion again since April 9th, with the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options increasing by 143.43% in a single day. The option sentiment index strengthened, and the implied volatility increased rapidly. It is recommended to follow the trend and continue to hold the bull spread portfolio [2][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to hold the bull spread portfolio [2][7] 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Viewpoint**: The bond market sentiment has improved. The Treasury bond futures strengthened overall, but the stock market's strength may still have a negative impact on the bond market. The sentiment in the commodity market weakened, reducing the negative impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the wait - and - see sentiment in the bond market increased. The July financial data showed that the social financing growth rate continued to rise, but the RMB loan segment needed further improvement. The financial data structure may support the bullish sentiment in the bond market, but overall, caution is still needed [3][8][9] - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is to be volatile and cautious. The hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. The basis strategy may have limited arbitrage space for the main contracts. The curve strategy is to pay attention to steepening the yield curve [9] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States and China from August 12th to 15th, 2025 are presented, including the US July CPI annual rate, China's July M2 money supply annual rate, and other indicators [10] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Crude Oil**: The IEA stated that the global oil market will face a record supply surplus next year. OECD countries' oil demand is "resilient" due to low oil prices. The global crude oil processing volume in August is expected to reach a record high, and the observable global oil inventory in June reached a 46 - month high [11] - **Macro - economy**: The central bank released the July financial statistics report. The RMB deposits, loans, and social financing scale from January to July are detailed, including the changes in various sectors and sub - items [11][12] 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data on stock index futures, stock index options, and Treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the given text [13][17][29]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged as relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts after the weakening of the labor market, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. However, in the short term, the resonance upward movement of the Chinese and US equity markets has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and the upward movement of the gold price may still need to build momentum. The price of spot gold is relatively mild below 3500, and its elasticity may increase after breaking through this level. The recovery of risk appetite brings greater short - term elasticity to silver, but the pressure at the 40 - dollar mark is still obvious, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Fed could have cut interest rates in June and July, there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut and a series of consecutive interest rate cuts, the current Fed interest rate should be further lowered by 150 to 175 basis points, the Fed's interest rate is restrictive, he is optimistic about the Fed's September meeting, the Fed's spending is not supervised, he is considering recruiting relevant talents from the private sector to serve in the Fed, he will not support stopping the release of employment reports, and the Fed may cut interest rates in advance if the data is accurate [2]. - Russia responded to the "Putin - Biden meeting" regarding territorial issues. Russian Foreign Ministry Deputy Spokesperson Fadeyev stated that Russia's territorial composition is determined in the national constitution, and the goals of the Russian delegation in the Russia - US leader negotiations will be based entirely on national interests [2]. - Trump's list of candidates for Fed Chairman has expanded to 11. Two government officials revealed that the Trump administration is considering 11 candidates to replace Fed Chairman Powell when his term expires next May, including three previously unannounced candidates. Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview all candidates, screen the list, and submit the final list to the president for a decision, but no timetable was provided [3]. Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price rose slightly, and silver recorded a larger increase. US inflation rose as expected, and the impact of tariffs was limited. After the weakening of the labor market, relatively mild inflation data clears the way for interest rate cuts, and the expectation of a 25BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September remains stable. Fed Chairman Powell may give a clearer statement at the global central bank annual meeting next week. The dominant logic in the past quarter, "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest rate cut expectations", is shifting to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest rate cut expectations". The change of the Fed leadership may bring a more dovish path in the long - term and a re - consideration of the Fed's independence [4]. Outlook - This week, the range of spot London gold is expected to be between 3340 and 3500 US dollars per ounce, and the range of spot London silver is expected to be between 37 and 40 US dollars per ounce [7].