中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-30 股市偏积极，债市偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：整体情绪偏积极 股指期权：情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御 国债期货：债市震荡偏谨慎 股指期货方面，整体情绪偏积极。周一权益市场情绪整体偏积极，新 能源及保险券商异动，市场量能略收缩，节前预计以成长局部行情为主。 值得注意的是，券商股昨日异动，或隐含资金对于节后相对积极的看法。 我们认为节后行情能够持续的原因如下，其一，外部扰动有限，资金对于 美联储四季度降息计价偏积极，弱美元环境利于全球资本市场走势，其 二，十五五规划临近，预计科技及反内卷成为关键词，这或诱发资金提前 布局，政策的看涨期权仍在，其三，9月盘面虽有波折，但整体呈现强韧 性，这有利于吸引增量资金进入股市。故操作层面，节前半仓过节应对不 确定性，节后仍建议积极参与成长及反内卷博弈行情。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御。昨日权益市 场震荡偏强，沪指单日涨幅0.90%。期权方面，各个品种市场成交额提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall "oscillating" outlook for the black building materials industry, indicating that the prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating in the short - term [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the pre - holiday restocking logic has ended, the high iron - water production still supports the demand for furnace materials, which in turn supports the steel price at the cost end. As the fourth quarter approaches, the market's expectations for the upcoming important meetings are increasing, so it is expected that the negative feedback in the industrial chain is difficult to form. The prices of sector varieties are expected to remain oscillating before the holiday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the shipments from overseas mines are stable. However, the arrival rhythm is affected by typhoons. Considering the end of pre - holiday restocking demand and the need to further verify the peak - season demand for building materials, the upside space is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the pressure on finished - product prices leads to a contraction in electric - furnace profits. It is expected that the price will oscillate following the finished products in the short - term [1]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: Although the steel mills' restocking is over, the rigid demand is strong under the high - iron - water background. The demand for coke is still supported, and the raw - coal price provides strong support. There are still expectations for price increases in the market, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the coal mine production is expected to decline slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal is suspended, so the overall supply pressure is not large. After the coke price increase is implemented and the profit pressure is relieved, the production can still remain at a high level. The fundamentals of coking coal are strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [2]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: In the short - term, the high production cost and the peak - season demand expectation support the price of manganese silicon. However, the market's supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is still downward space for the price center after the peak season [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term peak - season expectation and the firm cost support the price of silicon iron. But the market's supply - demand relationship tends to be loose, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [2]. 3.4 Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [2]. 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. It is expected to follow macro - changes and operate with wide - range oscillations. In the long - term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [2]. 3.6 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The spot market trading of steel is generally weak. The restocking before the holiday is coming to an end, and the speculative intention is weak. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to decline before the holiday, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The market is still cautious about the peak - season demand and worried about the post - holiday inventory pressure. The short - term futures price is expected to be under pressure, but the downward space is limited due to the upcoming important meetings and cost support [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipments from overseas mines have recovered slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has declined slightly. The spot market quotation has fallen, and the port trading has recovered, but the pre - holiday trading is generally weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel both increase, but the steel mills' restocking is nearly over, and the electric - furnace profit has shrunk. It is expected to follow the finished products' price in the short - term [9]. - **Coke**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply is slightly decreasing, and the demand is still supported by high iron - water production. Some steel mills have accepted the price increase, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price is running weakly due to the increasing risk - aversion sentiment of funds. The supply pressure is not large during the holiday, and the fundamentals are strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating [11][12]. - **Glass**: The demand is weak in reality, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may be oscillations. In the long - term, it needs market - oriented capacity reduction and is expected to oscillate downward [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - changes and oscillate widely. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The downstream restocking demand is nearly over, and the futures price is under pressure. The short - term cost and demand expectations support the price, but there is downward space after the peak season [16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market is pessimistic about the post - holiday demand. The futures price is running weakly. The short - term demand expectation and cost support the price, but there is downward pressure after the peak season [18].

Group 1: Investment Rating for the Industry - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ may continue to increase production, which could drag down oil prices. The ethylene glycol port inventory is at a five - year low, and a positive spread trading strategy is recommended. For loss - making varieties with low inventory pressure, a positive spread trading strategy can be held during the holiday, and it is not advisable to hold large - position unilateral positions. If holding positions, polyolefins with continuously innovative high production are preferred. The energy and chemical sector still oscillates with crude oil as the anchor. A light - position short - selling can be tried on pre - holiday rebounds, and low - inventory products can be intervened through positive spread trading [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - The energy and chemical market is expected to continue to oscillate with crude oil as the anchor. Pre - holiday rebounds can be short - sold with a light position, and low - inventory products can be traded through positive spreads [3] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - Geopolitical disturbances are frequent. The end of the Israel - Hamas conflict is optimistic, but the actual supply of crude oil has not been affected. The later focus of the geopolitical end is still on the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear issue. Under the background of OPEC+ accelerating production increase, crude oil will face the double pressure of the peak and decline of refinery start - up and OPEC+ accelerating production increase. The short - term view is oscillatory, and risk control should be noted during the holiday [9][10] Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil and continues to compress profits. The October asphalt production plan increases by 19% year - on - year, and the supply tension problem is greatly alleviated. The high premium of asphalt is expected to decline, and the price difference between months is expected to fall with the increase of warehouse receipts [11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Geopolitical disturbances drive the oscillatory price of fuel oil. The export of Russian fuel oil reached a record high in September, but geopolitical disturbances may cause the export expectation to decline significantly. The demand expectation has improved, but the support drivers are unstable. Geopolitical escalation's impact on price is short - term, and the change of the Russia - Ukraine situation should be concerned [11] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase and the demand to decline, and it is expected to run at a low valuation and follow the fluctuation of crude oil [13] Methanol - The external procurement of olefins in the inland continues, and the methanol futures price oscillates. The inventory pressure in the inland is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large. Some funds may still bargain - hunt at low prices. Low - long opportunities can be concerned from September to October [26] Urea - Pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the futures price is under pressure under the loose supply - demand situation. The current winter storage and export expectations are not good, and it is expected to be weakly sorted out [27] Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory hits a new low again, and the pattern of near - strong and far - weak continues. Although there is an expectation of a stocking inflection point in the port, the short - term price decline stops slightly, but the rebound height is limited, and interval operation is recommended [20] PX - There is cost support, but the supply - demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream naphtha is relatively strong, and the supply is at a high level. The short - term price oscillates within the interval, and the change of downstream PTA devices should be concerned [14] PTA - As the holiday approaches, the negotiation is light. The upstream cost has certain support, but the downstream negotiation is light. The price follows the cost to oscillate and sort out, and attention should be paid to the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15] Short - Fiber - Downstream pre - holiday replenishment is mostly completed. The cost is weak, and the market lacks a clear direction. The short - fiber price is expected to maintain a bottom - interval oscillation [22] Bottle Chip - The driving force is limited, and it follows the upstream fluctuation. The upstream polyester raw materials oscillate, and the support for the bottle chip price weakens. The supply - demand side has no obvious change, and the short - term price oscillates within the interval [23] PP - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. It has fallen below the June low, and there is a slight rebound near the previous low. The supply side is still in an incremental state, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure still exists. The short - term view is oscillatory [30] Propylene - It follows the fluctuation of PP, and PL oscillates in the short term. The market sentiment is slightly boosted, but the expectation for the future is still bearish, and the operation is cautious [31] Plastic - Before the holiday, both long and short sides are cautious. The short - term price decline has led to an increase in downstream transactions. Although the downstream start - up improvement is slow, there is still some demand support. The supply side still has certain pressure, and the short - term view is oscillatory [29] Pure Benzene - The pre - holiday wait - and - see sentiment is obvious, and it oscillates weakly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking makes the structure of pure benzene stronger, but according to the current maintenance and production - start plans, it will be in a state of oversupply by the end of the year, especially with large import pressure in October [16][18] Styrene - Before the holiday, there is a wait - and - see sentiment and port stocking. The cost - side support gradually appears, the domestic production supply decreases, and the downstream demand is good, but the port inventory has a continuous stocking expectation. The profit is at a low level, and an attempt can be made to widen the profit, with a rebound - shorting idea [18][19] PVC - The market sentiment cools down, and it oscillates. The macro - level policy has been implemented, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The fundamentals are under pressure, but the disk valuation is low, and the decline space is limited [32] Caustic Soda - There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and the disk oscillates. The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The short - term spot decline slows down, and attention should be paid to whether upstream production reduction occurs due to low profit after the holiday and the procurement process of non - aluminum and alumina [32] 3. Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - The report provides data on inter - period price differences, basis, and inter - variety price differences of various energy and chemical varieties, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. These data can help investors understand the price relationship and market trends of different varieties [34][35][36] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although the report lists various varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content [37][50][62] 4. Commodity Index - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed a decline. The energy index increased by 0.19% on the day, 3.99% in the past 5 days, 1.93% in the past month, and decreased by 0.07% since the beginning of the year [278][280]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillating" rating for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, indicating that the expected price fluctuations for these commodities are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the future 2 - 12 weeks [6][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. It is necessary to wait for the policy clarity at the end of September. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - For industrial silicon, the loosening of coal prices has led to a decline in its price. For polysilicon, the repeated policy expectations have caused its price to continue high - volatility. For lithium carbonate, as the long holiday and the point of long - short game approach, it is necessary to avoid price fluctuation risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of September 29, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory increased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of August 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 386,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. In August, the export volume of industrial silicon increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption progress of large northwest factories has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. The supply has been rising from August to September, but the resumption process has slowed down recently. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory has remained stable [6] - **Outlook**: Before the holiday, the loosening of coal prices led to a decline in silicon prices. Recently, the resumption rhythm of large factories has slowed down, and the industrial silicon price shows short - term oscillation. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the impact of the resumption rhythm of large northwest factories on supply [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: As of a certain time, the N - type polysilicon re - feeding material transaction price was in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In August, the export and import volumes of polysilicon decreased. From January to August 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased year - on - year. Relevant policies on anti - involution and energy consumption standards were put forward [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons in August and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken in the future. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation, and the price fluctuation has increased [8][9] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [7] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On September 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous day, and the total position increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. A new lithium project was put into production [9][10] - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. There is a supply - demand gap, but the amplitude is less than expected. The supply has new investments, and there is uncertainty in supply. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the amplitude is less than expected. The warehouse receipts are gradually recovering, suppressing the price. It is recommended to close positions and wait and see [10] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the long - term surplus and supply recovery expectations suppress the price. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10] 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under this section, but no specific content is provided [12][18][29] 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all decreased, with decreases of 0.13%, 0.08%, and 0.50% respectively. The new energy commodity index decreased by 0.53% on that day, 0.22% in the past 5 days, 0.96% in the past month, and 3.50% since the beginning of the year [52][54]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various agricultural and related commodity markets, providing short - and long - term outlooks and investment suggestions for each commodity. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some commodities expected to be weak, some to be in a range - bound state, and others with potential for short - term rebounds [1][6][8]. Summary by Commodity 1. Livestock - **Pig**: In the short term, the planned pig出栏量 in September increased by 4% month - on - month, and the completion rate was 64.6%. There is still significant pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of pigs for sale is expected to increase in Q4. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy of reducing 1 million sows is implemented, the supply pressure will ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage strategies [1][8]. 2. Oils and Fats - **Oils**: The outlook is that soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate, while rapeseed oil will oscillate with a stronger bias. The US soybean harvest is normal, but the good - quality rate is decreasing. The domestic soybean import volume will seasonally decline, and the soybean oil inventory will peak. The palm oil inventory accumulation in September may be limited, and the rapeseed oil inventory will decline. Attention should be paid to trade relations, supply in producing areas, and overseas biodiesel demand [6]. 3. Protein Meals - **Protein Meals**: The outlook is that both soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. Internationally, the US crop harvest is progressing well, and Brazil's sowing has a record - fast start. Domestically, there is support from pre - holiday stocking, but the inventory pressure is large. The supply of soybean meal is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Attention should be paid to the impact of pig "anti - involution" on sentiment [6][7]. 4. Grains - **Corn/Starch**: New grain is gradually coming onto the market. In the short term, there is pressure from the concentrated listing of new grain, but there may be a small rebound before the holiday. In the long term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [7][8]. 5. Rubbers - **Natural Rubber**: The short - term fundamentals are supportive, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound state. The market has a strong spot, is de - stocking, and the basis is narrowing. However, there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Attention should be paid to raw material prices and domestic social inventory changes [10][11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will continue to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has cooled, but there is no continuous upward driving force [12]. 6. Fibers - **Cotton**: The medium - term outlook is weak - side oscillation. The expected increase in Xinjiang's cotton production in the 25/26 season will bring supply pressure. Before the holiday, the price fluctuation will narrow. After the holiday, as new cotton is listed, the downward driving force will increase. Attention should be paid to the seed cotton purchase price and trade negotiations [12]. 7. Sweeteners - **Sugar**: In the short term (around National Day), it will oscillate, and the decline may slow down with a potential for a rebound. In Q4, as new sugar is listed in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply pressure will increase, and the price is expected to be weak - side oscillating. Attention should be paid to production data in Brazil's central - southern region [13][14]. 8. Pulps and Papers - **Pulp**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The downstream paper production peak is coming to an end, and the supply is in an oversupply situation. Although there is support from the delivery price, there is no clear upward logic [16]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The market is weak - side oscillating. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is not strong, and there is no clear upward or downward driving force in the short term. The long - term outlook is weak [17]. 9. Logs - **Logs**: The market will oscillate around 800 before the holiday. The spot price is stable, the inventory is being de - stocked, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. However, the delivery situation has a negative impact on the market, and the selling hedging pressure is large [19][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 39th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, net financing scale, and their changes compared to the previous week and historical data for various types of bonds [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bonds issued were 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] New General Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 82.7% [9] - This week, new general bonds issued were 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.1% [12] Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 80.6% [18] Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 81.7% [20]

Group 1 - Report Overview - Report title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 39, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing, Qualification No. F3083989, Investment Consultation No. Z0018635 [3] - Report date: September 29, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Special Bond Issuance - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 83.2% [4] - This week, new special bond issuance was 149.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 51.8 billion yuan [4] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in September was 397.1 billion yuan [4] Group 3 - New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 5.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 billion yuan [7] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 82.7% [9] - As of September 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in September was 4.11 billion yuan [4] Group 4 - Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 122.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 91.6 billion yuan [12] - As of September 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 83.1% [12] Group 5 - Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the treasury bond net financing scale was - 144.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 431.2 billion yuan [17] - As of September 28, the treasury bond net financing progress is 80.6% [18] Group 6 - Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was - 21.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 339.6 billion yuan [20] - As of September 28, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance is 81.7% [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is currently in an upward trend, with low crowding levels indicated by volatility and other indicators, and overall stable price movements. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday, external market volatility may increase, and investors are advised to control their positions [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts remains the core positive driving force for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment have cleared the way for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed Watch shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations are expected to continue to drive gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chairperson, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to be substantially strengthened, and there is room for imagination regarding future interest rate cuts. The increased risk to the Fed's independence also reinforces the macro - narrative of the decline in the US dollar's credit, providing greater flexibility for the gold price. The target price for US - dollar - denominated gold this year is maintained at $4000 [3][6]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant downward trend, and the soft - landing trade dominates the market, the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to rise with gold and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US economic data in Q2 and recent weeks were stronger than expected. The annualized final value of real GDP in Q2 increased by 3.8% quarter - on - quarter (expected 3.3%, revised value 3.3%); the GDP price index in Q2 increased by 2.1% (expected 2%, revised value 2%); real personal consumption expenditure in Q2 increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter (expected 1.7%, revised value 1.6%) [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 218,000 (expected 235,000, previous value revised from 231,000 to 232,000); the four - week average was 237,500 (previous value 240,000). The number of continued jobless claims in the week ending September 13 was 1,926,000 (expected 1,935,000, previous value 1,920,000) [2]. - The preliminary value of durable goods orders in the US in August increased by 2.9% month - on - month (expected - 0.5%, July's final value revised from - 2.8% to - 2.7%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding national defense increased by 1.9% month - on - month (July's final value revised from - 2.5% to - 2.3%); the preliminary value of durable goods orders excluding transportation increased by 0.4% month - on - month (expected flat, July's final value - 2.5%) [2]. - Fed's new governor Milan publicly advocated that the Fed should immediately take more aggressive interest - rate cut measures to avoid harming the US economy. He warned that the current policy interest rate of the Fed is far higher than his estimated "neutral" level and is in a "highly restrictive" range, making the economy more vulnerable to downward shocks. The Fed "can achieve the goal through a very short - term series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts" [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Thursday, precious metal prices adjusted slightly. The better - than - expected US economic data led to a short - term strong rebound in the US dollar index, causing precious metals to decline slightly under pressure. The current upward trend of precious metals remains intact [1][3]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core positive factor for gold. After the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, dovish expectations will drive gold prices up. The change of the Fed chairperson and the potential weakening of the Fed's independence will provide greater flexibility for the gold price, maintaining the target of $4000 for US - dollar - denominated gold this year [3][6]. - Silver follows the trend of gold. With the US economy showing a soft - landing trend, the suppression of silver's elasticity has eased, and silver prices are expected to rise with gold [6]. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2249.48, up 0.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2524.42, up 0.75%; the industrial products index was 2269.30, up 1.07% [46]. - The precious metals index on September 25, 2025, was 2995.52, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day increase of 3.33%, a 1 - month increase of 9.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 35.40% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a narrow - range oscillation, and the bond market curve flattens. For stock index futures, the market is in a narrow - range oscillation with local event - driven trading. For stock index options, a defensive approach should be maintained. For bond futures, the bond market curve flattens, and the overall bond market remains cautious [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: The Shanghai Composite Index had a narrow - range oscillation on Thursday, with trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion yuan. Before the holiday, there was no clear market mainline, and funds were trading around local hotspots. After concentrated hedging on Tuesday, funds gradually reduced short positions, and the basis converged to the beginning - of - week level. However, due to the approaching long holiday, the market lacked upward momentum. Industries such as media, communication, and non - ferrous metals led the gains, driven by events like the release of game licenses, Alibaba's AI infrastructure expansion plan, and a copper mine accident in Indonesia. These events are unlikely to form a trading mainline before the holiday. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a growth - style investment, allocate half - position IM long contracts, and wait for an opportunity to increase positions in mid - to - late October. - **Outlook**: Oscillation with a slightly upward trend [3][7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The equity market mainly oscillated, and the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined by 0.01%. The overall trading volume of the options market decreased slightly, with the single - day trading volume of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF options dropping by 28.01%. The trading sentiment that was previously active has slowed down. The PCR of each option variety weakened, and the weighted implied volatility of options decreased by an average of 2.22%. Considering short - term hedging needs and the entry of double - buying strategies in the week before the holiday, the double - selling volatility strategy is not recommended for now. - **Operation Suggestion**: If there are equity holdings, maintain a defensive approach with options before the holiday, such as covered call and protective put strategies. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [3][7]. Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: The bond market curve flattened. The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 3.5 billion yuan in open - market operations. Although the central bank has increased the MLF roll - over for seven consecutive months, the inter - bank market funds were still tight at the end of the quarter, with the DR001 weighted average interest rate around 1.5%, which was negative for the short - end of the bond market. The equity market rose and then fell, which boosted the sentiment of the long - end of the bond market. In the short term, monetary policy may mainly rely on structural policy tools. Considering the further implementation of other growth - stabilizing policies, the overall bond market remains cautious. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, be cautiously optimistic about the oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, appropriately pay attention to basis widening. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [4][7]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The report provides economic data from September 22 - 25, 2025, including China's one - year loan prime rate, the eurozone's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value, the US August new home sales annualized total, and the US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Tariffs**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant Mexican measures restricting Chinese products on September 25, 2025, due to Mexico's plan to raise import tariffs on products from non - free - trade partners such as China. - **US Macroeconomy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US dropped to the lowest level since mid - July, with a decrease of 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ending September 20, far lower than the expected 233,000 [12][13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring for stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but no specific data details are provided in the content [14][18][30].