1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", and "oscillating strongly" [277]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. Geopolitical concerns, such as the situation in Ukraine and the potential for increased sanctions on Russia, are major drivers of price volatility. Supply - demand imbalances vary by product, with some facing oversupply issues while others have improving demand [2][3][8]. - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with some products having a weakening or strengthening bias. The market is also affected by seasonal factors, such as pre - holiday stocking and autumn maintenance [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns have resurfaced, and supply pressure persists. Despite the expected resumption of Iraqi oil exports, the potential for increased restrictions on Russian oil by the US and the uncertainty of sanctions policies are driving price volatility. OPEC+ is accelerating production, and refinery operations are expected to decline, putting downward pressure on prices. The outlook is for weak oscillation, with attention on short - term geopolitical disturbances [2][8]. - **Asphalt**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. However, its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase. The profit margin is compressed, and the supply situation has improved significantly, with the October production plan increasing by 19% year - on - year [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have driven up prices. Although Russian fuel oil exports reached a high in September, geopolitical factors may cause a significant decline in export expectations. Demand is expected to improve, but the impact of geopolitical events on prices is likely to be short - lived [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates upward following crude oil. It faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current low valuation means it will likely follow crude oil price movements [13]. - **Methanol**: Inland olefin procurement continues, and the price oscillates. There is a contradiction between near - term and far - term inventory pressures, and there may be opportunities for long - positions in September - October [26]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and prices are under long - term pressure along the cost line. Although there are some positive expectations, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses upward price elasticity, and inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited rebound in the short - term [20][22]. - **PX**: Cost provides support, but the supply - demand outlook is weakening, and processing fees are under pressure. Supply remains high, and the potential for PTA factory production cuts may further affect demand [14][15]. - **PTA**: There are rumors of major PTA manufacturers cutting production to support prices, and processing fees have improved significantly. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with attention on the TA01 - 05 reverse spread [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream markets are replenishing stocks before the holiday, and inventory has decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, following raw material prices [22][23]. - **Bottle Chip**: Typhoons have caused short - term plant shutdowns, and supply - demand drivers are limited. The price is expected to oscillate, following raw material prices [23][24]. - **PP**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with attention on the support level of previous lows. Supply is increasing more than demand, and inventory pressure remains [31]. - **Propylene**: It follows the fluctuations of PP and oscillates in the short - term [32]. - **Plastic**: Before the holiday, both long and short positions are cautious. The price is expected to oscillate, with short - term support from factors such as reduced inventory pressure in the US and pre - holiday replenishment demand [30]. - **Pure Benzene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. There is difficulty in reducing inventory before the end of the year, especially in October when import pressure is high [17][19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound is limited, and the price oscillates. High inventory levels in the upstream and downstream are difficult to reduce, and the cost of pure benzene may drag down prices [19][20]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has improved, and the price oscillates. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, factors such as production cuts in September and increased downstream procurement at low prices are providing some support [33]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are strong expectations but weak reality, and the price oscillates. The demand outlook is positive, but there are still short - term supply pressures [34]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - Period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various products show different trends, with some narrowing and others widening. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX has decreased by 20, while the 5 - 9 month spread of PP has increased by 17 [35]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of different products also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 60 with a change of - 48, and the number of warehouse receipts is 55980 [36]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and PTA and PX, show different degrees of change, reflecting the relative price relationships between different products [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected order of asset performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is coming, providing policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster, and attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan of financial policy tools and new directions in the "14th Five - Year Plan". Investment data in July - August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the expected GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After the decisions at home and abroad, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the mid - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities like gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak US dollar trend continues but with a slower slope. The value of bond allocation increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and it should be balanced with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold has long - term strategic allocation value, and the main logic in the fourth quarter is the interest - rate cut [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the over - crowdedness of small - cap funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume declined slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the insufficient liquidity in the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on policy surprises, better - than - expected fundamental recovery, and tariff factors [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: In September, the US interest - rate cut cycle restarted, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence increased. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: In the third quarter, the peak season turned to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward drivers. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the rate of freight decline in September, the changes in the market, and policy dynamics [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The effect of "anti - involution" still exists, the steel mills' restocking is obvious, and the prices are volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, and port ore inventory changes [7]. - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is stable, and the spot price is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supported by the peak - season expectation, the futures price recovers from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The peak - season expectation is positive, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the spot price will rise significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply remains high, and the price is driven by the glass market. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper and Alumina**: There are new disturbances in copper ore supply, and the copper price is volatile upward. The alumina price is under pressure due to weak spot and inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment for copper is volatile upward and for alumina is volatile, with different focus points such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro risks, supply disturbances, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro changes and zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The supply of recycled lead decreases, and the price is volatile upward. The short - term judgment is volatile upward, with the focus on supply disturbances and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining makes the nickel price highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supported by costs, the price rises significantly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the price is high and volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply continues to increase, suppressing the price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on supply reduction and photovoltaic installation [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamental driving force is weak, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, supply, and new technologies [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical concerns re - emerge, and supply pressure continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [9]. - **LPG**: The chemical demand weakens, and the price is weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt - fuel oil spread declines rapidly. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Driven by geopolitical factors, the price rises. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on geopolitics and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins and port inventory, the contradiction between near - and far - term contracts is large. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: The price is under cost pressure, and there is a risk of over - reaction. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on export policies and the seventh Indian tender [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is affected by long - term inventory accumulation. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and device implementation [9]. - **PX**: Due to postponed device maintenance and capacity expansion, the supply - demand situation weakens. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees lead to more enterprise production cuts, but the long - term oversupply situation remains. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations, macro changes, and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders improve slightly, but high supply poses risks. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on downstream yarn mill purchasing and demand in the peak season [9]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is short - term replenishment, but the medium - long - term demand recovery is uncertain. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on enterprise production cuts and terminal demand [9]. - **Propylene**: The spread with PP fluctuates between 500 - 550. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic macro factors [9]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and the price declines. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro factors [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, and attention should be paid to policy details. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: With weak reality and strong expectation, the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Driven by the expected alumina production increase, the price rebounds. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: The risk of price fluctuations increases, and attention should be paid to trade policies. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: After the impact of Argentine soybean exports, the price rebounds from the low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade frictions [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The arrival of raw materials at North China deep - processing plants hits a new low, and the price rebounds slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand, macro factors, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: The near - term is weak and the long - term is strong, and the reverse spread continues. The short - term judgment is volatile downward, with the focus on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positions are reduced before the holiday, and a wait - and - see attitude is maintained. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on crude oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: The price continues to be weak, and attention should be paid to the purchase price. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: The price fluctuates at a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp is volatile, and the pressure on the 01 contract is more obvious. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on macroeconomic changes and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: Downstream orders are weak, and market contradictions are not prominent. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill production [9]. - **Log**: The spot price is stable, and the price is volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, with the focus on shipment and delivery volumes [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" in the medium term [5]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the deepening of the peak season, the various links in the industry chain, especially the mid - upstream links, still show seasonal improvement characteristics. As the end of the month and the fourth quarter approach, policy expectations are strengthening. Against this background, it is expected that the prices of sector varieties will maintain the current trend, mainly oscillating, with enhanced support for staged upward movement [1][5]. Summary by Related Categories Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: High - level demand provides support, factory inventories increase, and pre - holiday replenishment is obvious. The fundamental pressure is not significant, but the peak - season demand for building materials needs further verification, which limits the upward space. Affected by pre - holiday capital disturbances, short - term prices are expected to oscillate. Port trading volume decreased to 111.1 (-43.9) million tons, and the price of PB powder was 795 (+2) yuan/ton [1]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand both increase again, and steel enterprises have pre - holiday replenishment needs, which support the spot price. Short - term oscillation is expected. The average tax - free price of broken materials in East China is 2187 (+0) yuan/ton [1][8]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: Spot coal prices are rising rapidly, coking profits are continuously shrinking, and mainstream coke enterprises have initiated a new round of price increases. Although steel mills' coke inventories are moderately high, pre - holiday raw material inventories continue to increase, and the pre - holiday bullish expectation in the market is strong. The futures market is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price at Rizhao Port is 1490 yuan/ton (+40) [1][2][9]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal mine production remains cautious, supply recovery is slow, and the upward height is limited. At the same time, the pre - National Day replenishment by the middle and lower reaches can still be maintained in the short term, and the inventory of upstream coal mines remains low, with strong fundamental support. Pre - holiday coal prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 yuan/ton (+20) [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: During the peak season, the downstream procurement demand is expected to support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation for the future is relatively pessimistic. After the peak season, there is still room for the price center to decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs. The ex - factory price in Inner Mongolia is 5700 yuan/ton (-30) [2][14]. - **Silicon Iron**: The peak - season expectation and firm cost support the price performance, but the supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, there is still downward pressure on the price. The ex - factory price of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia is 5330 yuan/ton (0) [2][15]. Glass - The actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream destocking, there may still be a wave of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward. The mainstream large - board price in North China is 1210 yuan/ton (+50) [2][10]. Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to follow macro - level changes and have wide - range oscillations. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1230 yuan/ton (-) [2][13]. Commodity Indexes - On September 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased. The commodity index was 2249.48 (+0.75%), the commodity 20 index was 2524.42 (+0.75%), and the industrial products index was 2269.30 (+1.07%). The steel industry chain index on the same day was 2054.48, with a daily increase of +0.37%, a 5 - day decrease of -0.06%, a 1 - month increase of +1.22%, and a year - to - date decrease of -2.55% [100][102].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating (Soybean oil), Oscillating (Palm oil), Oscillating with an upward bias (Rapeseed oil) [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating (Soybean meal), Oscillating (Rapeseed meal) [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a downward bias [7][8] - **Hogs**: Oscillating with a downward bias [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [13][14] - **Cotton**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Mid - term), Oscillating (Short - term) [14][15] - **Sugar**: Oscillating with a downward bias (Long - term), Bouncing back from a low level (Short - term) [16] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Oscillating with a downward bias [19] - **Logs**: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The oils and fats market is highly volatile due to trade policy changes, with different trends for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Protein meal rebounds from a low level after the impact of Argentine soybean exports. Corn's upward trend is hard to sustain due to improved weather. Hog prices show a near - term weak and long - term strong pattern. Natural rubber maintains a narrow - range oscillation before the holiday, and synthetic rubber stays in an oscillating range. Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term due to expected yield increases. Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to expected supply surpluses. Pulp and double - gum paper show oscillating trends, and logs follow the market with a narrow - range oscillation [1][6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats**: Concerns about delayed US soybean export demand led to a bearish oscillation of US soybeans on Wednesday, while domestic oils and fats rebounded on Thursday. The US dollar strengthened, and crude oil prices rose. US soybean harvest progress is normal, but the good - quality rate is lower than last year, and the probability of a further decline in yield is high. Argentine soybean export tax policy impact may end, and domestic soybean imports are expected to decrease seasonally. Palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in September, and exports increased, with limited inventory accumulation. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. Rapeseed oil imports are expected to be low before November, and domestic inventories may continue to decline [1][6] - **Protein Meal**: The impact of Argentine soybean exports has been realized, and the market rebounds from a low level. International soybean premiums are rising, and US soybeans are entering the harvest period. South American soybean sowing progress is slower than usual. In China, 20 ships of Argentine soybeans have been ordered, and short - term negative factors are exhausted. In the long - term, domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in Q4 2025 and the supply gap will disappear in Q1 2026 [7] - **Corn/Starch**: Domestic corn prices are weak. New corn in Heilongjiang's eastern region is on the market, and the purchase price is falling. In North China, the increase in price has slowed down due to improved weather. Argentina has cancelled corn export tariffs, but the impact is limited. In the short - term, there is pressure from new grain listing, and in the long - term, the market is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish [7][8] - **Hogs**: In the short - term, hog supply is abundant, and in the medium - term, the number of hogs for slaughter is expected to increase. The "anti - involution" policy is guiding the industry to reduce production capacity. In the short - term, prices are under pressure, and in the long - term, prices may strengthen if the policy is effectively implemented [9] - **Natural Rubber**: Rubber prices oscillate before the holiday. The fundamentals are strong in the short - term, but there is an expectation of increased supply in Q4. Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The BR market continues to oscillate within a range. There are many device overhauls expected from September to November, and the price is at a low level, so the bearish sentiment has decreased. The raw material butadiene price oscillates slightly [13][14] - **Cotton**: New - season Xinjiang cotton production is expected to increase significantly. The inventory is tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. Demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is questionable. Before new cotton harvest, the purchase price may support the futures price, but in the later stage, the price may decline [14][15] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices have fallen below 5500 yuan/ton, and the decline has slowed down. In the short - term, the international trade flow is loose, and domestic consumption and imports are not favorable. In the long - term, global sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and prices are under downward pressure [16] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures oscillate at a low level. After the 09 contract delivery, the market has reached a consensus on the price. The US dollar - denominated pulp price is expected to decline, and the paper market has not effectively transmitted the price. The overall fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate [17] - **Double - Gum Paper**: Double - gum paper futures oscillate narrowly, and the position has decreased. The spot market is stable, but the demand is weak, and there is no clear upward or downward driver in the short - term. The long - term fundamentals are weak [19] - **Logs**: Logs follow the market and oscillate upwards, maintaining an oscillation around 800 yuan. The spot price is stable, and the inventory has decreased. The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectation, and the fundamentals have improved marginally [20] 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. The specialty index and industrial products index have increased, and the agricultural products index has a daily increase of 0.65%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.81%, a 1 - month decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.39% [179][181]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Slightly more commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing stronger [2][9][12]. - China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, which is an important stance declaration and will promote global trade and investment liberalization and inject positive energy into the reform of the global economic governance system [36]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 24, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Slightly more commodities rose, with energy & chemicals performing stronger [9][12]. - Top three gainers in China's commodity futures were glass (up 4.7% with 0.0% m-o-m open interest change), fuel oil (up 3.7% with 25.3% m-o-m open interest change), and SCFIS(Europe) (up 2.7% with -1.4% m-o-m open interest change). Top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 3.0% with -0.7% m-o-m open interest change), rapeseed oil (down 1.0% with -6.7% m-o-m open interest change), and soybean meal (down 0.8% with 1.4% m-o-m open interest change) [10][11][12]. - In China's financial futures, equity indices rose (IC and IM up 3.9% and 3.2% respectively), and CGB futures fell (TL down 0.4%) [12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Glass - On September 24, glass increased by 4.7% to 1237 yuan/ton. The Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026) was issued, regulating cement and glass production capacity [16][19]. - Current actual demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After mid - stream inventory destocking, there may be volatile fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and prices are expected to fluctuate downward [17][19]. - On the demand side, off - season demand declined, deep - processing orders edged up m - o - m, and inventory days decreased m - o - m. Mid - and downstream pre - holiday inventory replenishment is expected to lead to inventory destocking this week, but the replenishment may be ending. On the supply side, some production lines are to be commissioned in September, and there are concerns about production line suspensions due to coal - to - natural - gas conversion in the Shahe area [18][19]. 1.2.2 Soda Ash - On September 24, soda ash increased by 2.3% to 1307 yuan/ton. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and wide - ranging fluctuations are expected in subsequent operations. In the long run, the price center will move downward to drive capacity reduction [24][26]. - On the supply side, production capacity has not been cleared, and long - term pressure remains. The second phase of the Alxa project was commissioned, but output will take time. On the demand side, heavy soda ash procurement is expected to maintain rigid demand, with stable float - glass daily melting volume and rebounding photovoltaic - glass daily melting volume. Light soda ash downstream procurement has flattened, and downstream inventory - replenishment sentiment is weak [25][26]. - Sentiment disturbs the futures market. With the alleviation of shipment issues and mid - stream inventory accumulation, short - term industrial contradictions are limited, and the futures market mostly follows macro policies [26]. 1.2.3 Coking Coal - On September 24, coking coal increased by 1.2% to 1224.5 yuan/ton. "Anti - involution" is the main policy theme, and market sentiment is unlikely to turn significantly cold as relevant expectations are not falsified [29][31]. - Fundamentally, coal mines are producing cautiously during over - capacity inspections, supply recovery is slow, and there is limited room for further growth. Mid - and downstream sectors have started pre - National - Day inventory replenishment, so prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [29][31]. - On the supply side, coal mine production in producing areas is recovering slowly due to safety supervision, environmental protection, and over - capacity inspections. At the import end, Mongolian coal clearance at Ganqimaodu Port remains high. On the demand side, coke output is high, downstream coke enterprises have started pre - holiday inventory replenishment, and some intermediate links have also started purchasing, reducing upstream coal mine inventories [30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On September 24, the MOFCOM held a press briefing to introduce that China, as a responsible major developing country, will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations. This is an important stance declaration and a key measure for China to uphold the multilateral trading system and promote global economic governance reform [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oscillating Weakly**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, live pigs, cotton (medium - term), sugar (long - term) [2][7][12][18][19] - **Oscillating**: Corn, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton (short - term), paper pulp, offset paper, logs [11][15][16][18][20][22][23] - **Weak Market Sentiment**: Fats and oils [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: With the harvest of US soybeans and the increase in Argentine supply, the domestic supply pressure is dominant, and both are expected to oscillate weakly. Long positions from the previous period can take profits and then wait and see [2][7]. - **Fats and Oils**: Market sentiment remains weak. The harvest of US soybeans is progressing, but the good - quality rate is declining. The export tax on soybeans and their derivatives in Argentina has been temporarily cancelled. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the market faces the pressure of new grain listing, and prices may continue to decline. In the long term, it is expected to be short - term bearish and long - term bullish, with an oscillating outlook [11]. - **Live Pigs**: The purchase and sale are smooth, but the price is at a low level. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure. In the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Natural Rubber**: Before the holiday, positions are continuously reduced. It is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market will maintain an oscillating pattern within a range [16]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Sugar**: In the long term, it is expected to oscillate weakly due to the expected abundant supply in the new season. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating pattern, and the 01 contract may face downward pressure [20]. - **Offset Paper**: The downstream orders are weak, and the market contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. - **Logs**: The spot price is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fats and Oils - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, US soybeans and soybean oil rebounded slightly due to technical buying, and domestic fats and oils oscillated weakly. The US dollar weakened slightly, and crude oil prices rose [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The harvest of US soybeans is progressing normally, but the good - quality rate is declining. The production and consumption of US biodiesel have decreased year - on - year. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives. The inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak, the inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in September may be limited, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory may continue to decline [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate weakly, and rapeseed oil is expected to oscillate [5]. 3.2 Protein Meals - **Market Information**: On September 24, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes increased, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing decreased [7]. - **Industry Situation**: Argentina has cancelled all grain export tariffs, and the China - Canada trade relationship may improve. Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is increasing, and the export price of Argentine soybeans is decreasing. Domestically, the import volume of soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil from Argentina is expected to increase, and the supply may continue to be high. The demand for soybean meal may increase steadily, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow the trend of soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and then wait and see [2][7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Market Information**: The average price of domestic corn is 2,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract is 2,158 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [8][10]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of domestic corn varies in different regions. The supply of new grain in the Northeast is under pressure, and the price is stable or weak. The arrival volume in North China is low, and the price is strong. The port demand is weak, and the price is stable or weak. The new grain in Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and western Heilongjiang has not been listed, and the new grain in eastern Heilongjiang has a high opening price. North China has been affected by continuous rainfall, and the arrival of wet grain is insufficient. Argentina has cancelled the export tax on corn, which may have a limited impact [11]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Market Information**: On September 24, the spot price of live pigs in Henan was 12.79 yuan/kg, down 0.23%, and the closing price of the live pig futures active contract was 12,730 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Affected by typhoons in Guangdong, some enterprises have reduced production. The cost of breeding is expected to decrease due to Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. In the short term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and in the long term, if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented, the supply pressure in 2026 will weaken [12]. - **Outlook**: Live pigs are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of natural rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone has increased, and the export of natural rubber from Thailand from January to August has decreased year - on - year [13][14]. - **Industry Situation**: The rubber price has maintained a narrow - range oscillation pattern. The fundamentals are currently strong, but there is an expectation of increased supply in the fourth quarter. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the overall demand is not expected to change significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: Natural rubber is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern within a range. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [15]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Information**: The spot price of butadiene rubber and the domestic spot price of butadiene have increased [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The BR market first rose and then fell, and the absolute price remained basically unchanged. There are expectations of many device overhauls from September to November, and the price is at a low level since listing. The raw material butadiene has a certain support on the supply side, but the downstream demand is weak [16][17]. - **Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 season was 3,716, and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton 01 was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase significantly in the new season. The inventory structure is currently tight in the near - term and loose in the long - term. The demand has improved seasonally, but the sustainability is in doubt [17][18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there may be a certain support around 13,500 yuan/ton, and there may be a rebound. In the medium term, due to the expected increase in production, it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.8 Sugar - **Market Information**: As of September 24, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar 01 was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton [19]. - **Industry Situation**: Recently, Zhengzhou sugar has continued to decline and then rebounded. The international trade flow is abundant, and the domestic consumption in August is average. The supply of the global sugar market is expected to be abundant in the 25/26 season [19]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar is expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, the price has stopped falling and rebounded [19]. 3.9 Paper Pulp - **Market Information**: The price of domestic paper pulp varies, with the price of Russian pine needles in Shandong at 5,100 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [19]. - **Industry Situation**: The paper pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The 09 contract has completed delivery, and the US dollar price of softwood pulp is expected to decline. The paper market has some changes, but the impact is not strong. The fundamentals of paper pulp are still weakly guided [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper pulp is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Market Information**: The market price of offset paper has remained stable, and the market is waiting and seeing [22]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of large - scale paper mills is basically stable, and the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized paper mills is average. The downstream printing factory orders are weak, and the market confidence is insufficient. The supply and demand have no obvious contradiction in the short term [22]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to operate within the range of 4,100 - 4,400 yuan in the short - term [22]. 3.11 Logs - **Market Information**: The spot price of logs is stable, and the inventory has decreased [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The market is in a game between weak reality and peak - season expectations. The fundamentals have improved marginally, but there is no strong upward driving force. The delivery logic has a negative impact on the market [23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to oscillate around 800 yuan in the short term [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The single - week data is bullish due to the decline in full - caliber inventory and the strengthening of apparent oil product demand, although the total inventory pressure of crude oil and petroleum products remains at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Inventory - In the week ending September 19, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels, and the decline in crude oil inventory narrowed as net imports rebounded significantly compared with the previous data [3][5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 177,000 barrels [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory decreased from 450.4 million barrels to 423 million barrels [5]. Production and Refining - US single - week crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 1,350.1 million barrels per day [3][5]. - The US refinery utilization rate dropped from 93.3% to 93%, still at a relatively high level in the same period [3][5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume increased from 1,642.4 million barrels per day to 1,647.6 million barrels per day [5]. Product Inventory and Demand - US gasoline and diesel inventories both decreased slightly. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, and diesel inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels [3][5]. - US aviation kerosene inventory increased by 1.052 million barrels, and fuel oil inventory increased by 317,000 barrels [5]. - US total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) decreased by 474,000 barrels [5]. - US apparent demand for refined oil products increased from 2,063.7 million barrels per day to 2,079.3 million barrels per day. Apparent demand for gasoline increased from 881 million barrels per day to 895.9 million barrels per day, and apparent demand for diesel increased from 362.1 million barrels per day to 373.8 million barrels per day [5]. Import and Export - US crude oil imports increased from 569.2 million barrels per day to 649.5 million barrels per day, and exports decreased from 527.7 million barrels per day to 448.4 million barrels per day [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector may continue to rebound in the short - term due to geopolitical disturbances. Many chemical products are at a difficult stage, with compressed valuations and heavy profit pressures on chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and supply pressures, showing an overall trend of weakening oscillations. Each sub - sector has different performances and trends, mainly affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Energy and chemical products may continue to be affected by geopolitical disturbances in the short - term and continue to rebound. Many chemical products are approaching their darkest moments, with compressed valuations. The days of chemical enterprises in the fourth quarter will still be difficult [1][2] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical concerns resurface, and supply pressure persists. - **Main Logic**: The EU plans to impose tariffs on Russian oil, and Ukrainian drones attack Russian energy facilities. EIA data shows a slight decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories last week. In the context of OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil faces the dual pressures of refinery start - up peaking and falling and OPEC+ accelerating production increases. Geopolitical factors dominate the fluctuation of geopolitical premiums. - **Outlook**: Consider oil prices to be in a weakening oscillation, and pay attention to short - term geopolitical disturbances [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly declining. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing oil prices to rise sharply while asphalt futures prices increase slightly, compressing profits. The asphalt - fuel oil price difference is rapidly falling, and the planned asphalt production in October increases by 19% year - on - year. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [8] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical disturbances drive a sharp increase in fuel oil futures prices. - **Main Logic**: Saudi Arabia promotes OPEC+ to continue increasing production, the US may impose tariffs on Russia, and Russia may stop exporting diesel, causing fuel oil futures prices to rise sharply. Geopolitical disturbances may cause the expected Russian fuel oil exports to decline significantly. With the increase in refinery start - up, the demand for fuel oil processing is gradually increasing, but the demand for gasoline in the US is weak, and the demand for residue processing is sluggish. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical escalation will only cause short - term price disturbances. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [9] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, but the resistance level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Fundamentally, the reduction of domestic refined oil export tax rebates and the cancellation of UCO export tax rebates increase the supply pressure of domestic refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it fluctuates with crude oil [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has decreased, and methanol futures prices fluctuate. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, methanol futures prices fluctuated. The shipping price in northern Ordos, Inner Mongolia increased slightly, mainly supported by the start - up of olefin plants, transportation restrictions, and pre - holiday stockpiling. The port inventory decreased, but there is still a large pressure on the near - month port inventory, and there is a contradiction between the near and far months. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, there may still be opportunities to go long at low levels from September to October. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23] 3.2.6 Urea - **View**: The pattern of loose supply and demand is difficult to change. After the futures prices have been under long - term pressure along the cost line, they rebound briefly. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the daily production and start - up rate of the supply side remained at a high level, and there was insufficient support on the demand side, but the export expectation improved due to policy and macro news, causing the futures prices to rebound briefly. - **Outlook**: The fundamental supply - demand situation remains loose. If the policies such as export windows and batches and changes in Indian tenders are true, they may bring considerable benefits, but currently be vigilant about unimplemented information. Urea is expected to oscillate and sort out, waiting for other positive factors [24] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **View**: The shipment performance is average, and it fluctuates with cost and sentiment. - **Main Logic**: Before the festival, the overall shipment performance was average, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol was rising from a low level. The increase in oil prices during the day slightly repaired the commodity sentiment, and ethylene glycol stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, there are limited variables, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the National Day. The supply - demand situation is in a marginally weakening pattern, and the price mostly fluctuates with cost and sentiment, with a limited rebound height at a low level. - **Outlook**: The short - term price stops falling slightly, but the rebound height is limited. Operate within a range [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - **View**: Cost supports the price, but the supply - demand side is relatively under pressure, and profits are compressed. - **Main Logic**: The rebound of crude oil prices drives the increase of naphtha prices, strengthening cost support. Driven by sentiment, the sales of polyester products increase, further supporting the increase of PTA prices. There are frequent rumors of device disturbances in the market, increasing sentiment - side disturbances. Before specific device changes, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a weakly oscillating pattern, and PX profits are still under pressure in the short term. - **Outlook**: The marginal weakening of supply - demand and cost support compete, and it oscillates in the short term [12] 3.2.9 PTA - **View**: The basis continues to weaken, and the willingness to hold goods is low. - **Main Logic**: The futures prices rebound following the cost side. Some polyester filament manufacturers have different mentalities, and some offer promotions, leading to an increase in the sales of polyester filaments. However, the spot basis still runs weakly, and the number of warehouse receipts increases sharply. It is expected that the basis will still be under pressure in the short term. Although there is a certain reduction in supply, the strong willingness of mainstream manufacturers to ship goods limits the overall repair of processing fees. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate under the game between its own supply - demand and cost. - **Outlook**: Oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to the TA01 - 05 reverse arbitrage [13][14] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The sentiment of the upstream to stop falling has improved slightly, and the downstream demand has improved slightly. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials stop falling and rebound, and short - fiber prices follow the increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly, and the downstream stockpiling behavior has improved slightly with the improvement of upstream sentiment. However, the sustainability of the overall situation is still worthy of attention. - **Outlook**: The absolute value of short - fiber fluctuates with the raw materials, and it oscillates in the short - term at the bottom [20][21] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - **View**: Typhoons in South China affect the operation of plants. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw material futures rise slightly, and polyester bottle - chip factories follow the increase. The cost has a certain supporting effect. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate following the upstream in the short term. - **Outlook**: Oscillate, and the absolute value fluctuates with the raw materials [21][22] 3.2.12 PP - **View**: The chemical sentiment turns slightly warmer, and PP should pay attention to the support strength of the previous low. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PP main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices oscillate, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of PP futures prices. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" and the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price, there is still some willingness of downstream manufacturers to replenish stocks. However, the PP supply side is still under pressure, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches still exists. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [27][28] 3.2.13 Propylene (PL) - **View**: Fluctuate following PP, and PL oscillates and falls in the short term. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the PL main contract oscillated and fell. The mentality in the market was slightly boosted, and the willingness to continue to offer discounts was not strong, but the market still had a bearish expectation for the future, so the operation was cautious. The price fluctuated, and the downstream maintained rigid demand for replenishment, with general overall trading. The PP - PL price difference oscillated around 500, and the volatility of PL may increase marginally compared with before. - **Outlook**: PL oscillates weakly in the short term [28] 3.2.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices rebound, and downstream manufacturers still have stockpiling demand before the festival, so plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On September 24, the plastic main contract rebounded slightly. Oil prices rebound, and geopolitical concerns dominated by the Russia - Ukraine situation still have a fermenting trend, supporting the bottom of the range. The downstream trading volume still increases after the short - term decline of plastic futures prices. Entering the "Golden September and Silver October", although the downstream start - up improvement is still slow, considering the current low absolute price and the fact that downstream manufacturers still have some willingness to replenish stocks before the double festivals of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the demand may still have a certain support. However, the plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, the daily production is still at a high level, and the inventory is gradually decreasing from a high level, and the supply side still has a certain pressure. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited support, and it oscillates in the short term [26] 3.2.15 Pure Benzene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil and anti - involution reappear, and pure benzene rebounds. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the inventory in East China ports decreased. Near the double festivals, downstream industries had a certain demand for replenishment. The news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of pure benzene and styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. According to the current maintenance and production - start plans of pure benzene, it will be difficult to reduce the inventory before the end of the year, and the import pressure in October is relatively large, with the most obvious inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: If the styrene maintenance is implemented from September to October, the supply of pure benzene will exceed the demand again, and the inventory will accumulate [14][15] 3.2.16 Styrene - **View**: The disturbances of crude oil, anti - involution, and plants reappear, and styrene rebounds after a decline. - **Main Logic**: At the beginning of the week, the news of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance boosted the sentiment of styrene. The expectation of consumption stimulus policies also made the futures market stronger. Later, with the realization of the interest rate cut benefit, as well as the delay of pure benzene maintenance and import transactions, the styrene price declined. The current contradiction of styrene is that the high inventory of upstream and downstream industries is difficult to reduce. Although styrene is in a de - stocking pattern from September to October, it has limited effect on the current high inventory, and it will return to the end - of - year inventory - accumulation cycle from November to December, with insufficient positive support. In addition, the increase of pure benzene imports in the far - month also drags down the styrene price. - **Outlook**: The profit has reached a low level. You can try to widen the styrene profit. The idea of short - selling on rebounds remains unchanged [17] 3.2.17 PVC - **View**: The market sentiment warms up, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost increase slows down. Specifically, the autumn maintenance of upstream plants increases in mid - September, reducing PVC production; the downstream start - up rate improves month - on - month, and the low - price procurement volume increases; the PVC order - signing situation improves this week; the impact of power rationing on the start - up of calcium carbide plants is short - term, and the pre - festival stockpiling of PVC enterprises is coming to an end, so the increase of calcium carbide prices may slow down; supported by the stockpiling of alumina, the caustic soda spot price stabilizes, and the static cost of PVC increases to 5280 yuan/ton, and the dynamic cost may remain stable. - **Outlook**: PVC oscillates. The pressure comes from the long - term weakening of fundamentals, and the support comes from the increase of dynamic cost and the warming of market sentiment [30] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: Strong expectation and weak reality, and the futures market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the domestic anti - involution policy is yet to be implemented, and overseas countries have entered an interest - rate cut cycle, so the market sentiment is prone to fluctuations. At the micro level, the caustic soda fundamentals still have pressure, but the demand expectation is good. The pressure is manifested in the high receiving volume of caustic soda by Weiqiao and the reduction of the receiving price; the non - aluminum start - up rate remains stable, and the pre - festival stockpiling enthusiasm is average; the maintenance in October decreases, and the caustic soda production will increase. The support comes from the strong expectation of stockpiling caustic soda for the production of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026, and the stable rebound of the price of 50% caustic soda in Shandong. - **Outlook**: Oscillate in the long - term. The spot price stabilizes weakly before the festival, and the futures market may still rebound due to the strong expectation of stockpiling for alumina production in Q4 [31] 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Provides the latest values and changes of cross - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [32] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Lists the basis, changes, and warehouse receipt numbers of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [33] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Presents the latest values and changes of cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. [34] 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the provided content, only lists the names of varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc. [35][48][60] 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities increased by 0.56% on September 24, 2025. - **Characteristic Index**: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.54%, the industrial products index increased by 0.72%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.35%. - **Sector Index**: The energy index increased by 1.93% on September 24, 2025, decreased by 1.22% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.37% in the past month, and decreased by 2.06% since the beginning of the year [277][278]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The divergence within the Fed persists, with Powell maintaining a data - dependent stance and dovish理事 like Bowman emphasizing the risk of the Fed's lagging actions. Geopolitical tensions remain high, and gold volatility and trading indicators suggest the market is not overcrowded. Precious metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [2][4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish driver for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the rate - cut cycle, dovish expectations are likely to continue driving gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the long - term imagination of rate cuts and the risk of the Fed's independence, which also strengthens the narrative of the decline of the US dollar's credit and provides more upside potential for gold prices. The target for US - dollar - denominated gold within the year is maintained at $4000 [4]. - Silver trends follow gold. As the US fundamentals have not shown a significant decline, the soft - landing trade dominates the market, and the suppression of silver's elasticity has significantly eased. Silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward movement and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the Fed's interest rates are too high and have lasted too long. He doesn't understand why Powell's attitude has softened. Concerns about an economic recession have eased, and he is worried about distribution issues, calling for rate cuts to relieve pressure. He also mentioned plans to support Argentina, including discussing a $20 billion swap line, being ready to buy Argentine US - dollar bonds, and working to end the tax - exemption period for commodity producers [3]. - A Fed survey shows that corporate treasurers say market sentiment is improving, but tariffs will push up prices [3]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said that there is still room for further rate cuts. The timing and magnitude of rate cuts depend on the inflation path. The labor market is weakening, and consumers are cautious [3]. Price Logic - On Wednesday, precious metal prices continued to rise during the day. The US dollar rebounded slightly at night and then declined, and the overall price remained strong. The divergence within the Fed persists, geopolitical tensions remain high, and gold volatility and trading indicators suggest the market is not overcrowded, so precious metal prices are expected to maintain an upward trend in the short term [4]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts is the core bullish driver for gold. Moderate inflation and weak employment clear the way for the Fed to cut rates. Fed Watch shows that the expectation of Fed rate cuts within the year has expanded to 3 times. After the restart of the rate - cut cycle, dovish expectations are likely to continue driving gold prices up. With the upcoming change of the Fed chair, Trump's control over the Fed is expected to strengthen, increasing the long - term imagination of rate cuts and the risk of the Fed's independence, which also strengthens the narrative of the decline of the US dollar's credit and provides more upside potential for gold prices. Silver trends follow gold, and silver prices are expected to follow gold's upward movement and may challenge the 2011 historical high of around $50 in the first or second quarter [4]. - Outlook: The weekly range for spot London gold is [3600, 3900], and for spot London silver is [41, 47] [4]. Commodity Index - On September 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures Commodity Index is presented. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2232.74, +0.56%), Commodity 20 Index (2505.61, +0.54%), Industrial Products Index (2245.28, +0.72%), and PPI Commodity Index (1318.26, +0.35%) [47]. - The precious metal index on September 24, 2025, is 3006.67, with a daily increase of +0.50%, a 5 - day increase of +4.44%, a 1 - month increase of +10.17%, and a year - to - date increase of +35.90% [48].

Reporting Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish view on copper prices and recommend long positions at low prices; suggest looking into buying the near - term SHFE copper contract while selling the far - term contract [11][12] Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Grasberg copper mine will exacerbate the global copper market supply tightness, providing upward rebound momentum for copper prices. Despite the slowdown in copper demand growth, with the arrival of the peak demand season and positive macro - economic expectations, copper prices are expected to rise [4][5][11] Summary by Directory Event Review - On the evening of September 24, copper prices rebounded significantly, with LME copper breaking through US$10,000 per ton. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remains shut down, and its production in 2026 is estimated to decrease by 35% compared to the previous forecast of 1.7bn lb (approx. 0.77mn t), impacting production by around 0.27mn t [4][5] Market Outlook Supply Side - Recent disruptions in copper mine supply occurred as the underground tunnels of the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia were partially blocked. Mining operations are suspended, and production is expected to fully recover only by 2027. The shutdown will exacerbate the tightness in the copper concentrate market, with copper ore spot processing fees likely remaining low and potentially declining further. Blister copper processing fees are also falling, leading to possible production cuts at some scrap - copper - using smelters, and a significant month - over - month decline in electrolytic copper production in September [7][8][13] Demand Side - The growth rate of copper demand has slowed down due to the decline in terminal demand from home appliances and other sectors, and the pace of inventory reduction has slowed in the past two months, constraining copper price increases in Q3 2025. However, with the arrival of the peak demand season in September and October, downstream buyers' willingness to stock up has increased, and copper inventories have begun to decline this week. If the decline continues, copper prices will have significant upward elasticity [9][10][14] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts at its September meeting, and overall macro - economic expectations are positive. Coupled with frequent supply disruptions and the significant impact of the Grasberg copper mine shutdown, a bullish view on copper prices is maintained. In terms of arbitrage, the decline in refined copper production in September coinciding with a seasonal increase in demand may tighten the copper supply - demand balance again, and low copper inventories are likely to persist, making it a good opportunity for a positive spread in SHFE copper contracts [11][12][14]