1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weakening trend with shocks, investors should adopt a weakening trend with shocks mindset and set the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point [4] - Asphalt: High - valued futures prices await a decline, absolute prices are over - valued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8] - High - sulfur fuel oil: Weak and volatile [4] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Futures prices follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly [4] - Methanol: Spot prices are falling, futures prices fluctuate [4] - Urea: Positive export expectations, market confidence restored, the market rebounds upward [4] - Ethylene glycol: Port inventory accumulation is not continuous, prices have support at the bottom [4] - PX: There is short - term support at the bottom [4] - PTA: Costs are supported, supply - demand drivers are limited, and there is no inventory accumulation pressure [4] - Short - fiber: Fluctuates following upstream costs [4] - Bottle chips: Costs have certain support, self - driven factors are limited [4] - PP: Good refinery profits suppress valuations, fluctuates weakly [4] - Propylene: Inventory pressure is not large, PL fluctuates in the short term [4] - Plastic: Supported by maintenance, fluctuates [4] - Pure benzene: Driven by insufficient factors, fluctuates within a narrow range [4] - Styrene: Peak - season stockpiling has begun one after another, but the expected demand is limited, and the overall situation is average [4] - PVC: Anti - dumping measures pressure demand, be cautious and bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Spot prices stabilize and rebound, the market is cautiously optimistic [4] 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the crude oil market is gradually easing, and the market is trending weakly. The chemical industry follows and fluctuates. The pattern of chemical products is slightly stronger than that of crude oil, especially the aromatics segment is boosted by the strong gasoline cracking spread [2][3] - The crude oil market faces continuous inventory accumulation pressure, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The high - valued asphalt futures prices are expected to decline. High - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates weakly, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil and fluctuates weakly. The methanol spot price is falling, and the futures price fluctuates. Urea has positive export expectations, and the market rebounds. Ethylene glycol has support at the bottom due to non - continuous port inventory accumulation. PX has short - term support, PTA has cost support and no inventory accumulation pressure, short - fiber follows upstream costs, bottle chips have cost support, PP fluctuates weakly, propylene fluctuates in the short term, plastic fluctuates with maintenance support, pure benzene fluctuates narrowly, styrene's demand is limited, PVC is cautiously bearish, and caustic soda is cautiously optimistic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety Crude oil - Market news: Ukraine plans to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding, and reach a $50 billion agreement with US companies to produce drones. Multiple Palestinian factions agree to a cease - fire proposal. Ukraine attacks a Russian oil pump station [7] - Main logic: OPEC+ production increases lead to supply pressure, global on - land crude oil inventories accumulate against the season, and overseas refined oil gasoline inventories are high. Future crude oil inventories face double pressure from the peak and decline of refinery operations and OPEC+ accelerated production increases, and the monthly spread is under pressure. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations [7] Asphalt - Market news: The main asphalt futures contract closes at 3461 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong are 3730 yuan/ton, 3880 yuan/ton, and 3580 yuan/ton respectively [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast, the Russia - US Alaska meeting exceeds expectations, the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drives the geopolitical premium to decline. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is still high, driving refinery operations to return. The demand for asphalt is not optimistic, and the current valuation is higher than that of crude oil, rebar, low - sulfur fuel oil, and high - sulfur fuel oil [8] High - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 2691 yuan/ton [8] - Main logic: EIA significantly lowers the oil price forecast and raises OPEC production. The market is affected by factors such as increased tariffs, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. China raises the fuel oil import tariff, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil feedstock decreases. The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread is still high and is supported by the weakening of crude oil [9] Low - sulfur fuel oil - Market news: The main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closes at 3436 yuan/ton [11] - Main logic: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weakening of crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has risen recently, low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure is expected to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [11] PX - Market news: On August 18, PX CFR China Taiwan price is 828(+4) dollars/ton, PX Korea FOB price is 806(+4) dollars/ton, etc. [13] - Main logic: Afternoon Asian trading session, crude oil prices rebound slightly, and PX follows the cost to strengthen. Fundamentally, maintenance devices are restarting one after another, and the load is slightly increasing. The polyester peak season is approaching, and demand support is gradually strengthening. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance with low inventory, and the short - term downside space is expected to be limited [13] PTA - Market news: On August 18, PTA spot price is 4665(+6) yuan/ton, etc. [14] - Main logic: The cost has short - term support. Fundamentally, the supply side has a slight decline in load due to device maintenance, and downstream polyester and textile industries show signs of recovery. PTA's inventory accumulation pressure in August is narrowing. It is expected that short - term prices will mainly follow cost fluctuations [14] Pure benzene - Market news: On August 18, the closing price of the pure benzene 2603 contract is 6179, with a change of - 0.05%, etc. [15] - Main logic: The geopolitical situation is expected to ease further, and the International Energy Agency lowers the global demand growth forecast, which puts pressure on the oil market. Asian naphtha downstream ethylene cracking device operating rates remain low. Pure benzene performs stronger than the cost side this week, mainly affected by factors such as coking production restrictions, downstream rigid - demand restocking, and port inventory reduction. Downstream operating rates increase, but price increases are weak, and profits decline [17] Styrene - Market news: On August 18, the East China styrene spot price is 7250(0) yuan/ton, etc. [17] - Main logic: Recently, styrene prices have fluctuated weakly. Positive factors include a slight improvement in the pure benzene market and the start of peak - season stockpiling by downstream industries. Negative factors are more dominant, such as the new production capacity of Jingbosidaruixin device, the expected increase in existing supply, and poor white - goods production scheduling data [18] Ethylene glycol - Market news: On August 18, the EG main contract 2509 closes at 4346, a decrease of 28 from the previous trading day, etc. [18] - Main logic: Coal prices are under pressure, and the cost of ethylene glycol has limited guidance. Fundamentally, the supply side has great pressure, but port inventory accumulation is not continuous, and the overall accumulation range is not large. It is expected that prices will have strong support under the low - inventory pattern [19] Short - fiber - Market news: On August 18, the Zhejiang market polyester short - fiber spot price rises by 10 to 6490 yuan/ton ex - factory, etc. [20] - Main logic: The supply - demand fundamentals change little, downstream spinning mill loads and inventories remain stable, market orders start slowly, and raw material support is average. The absolute value of short - fiber follows raw material fluctuations and fluctuates in the short term [22] Bottle chips - Market news: On August 18, the East China market polyester bottle chip price closes at 5890, with a change of - 10, etc. [22] - Main logic: Rising raw material prices support bottle chips. Fundamentally, there are few changes. Attention should be paid to the restart of factory devices in September. Short - term prices follow upstream costs, and processing fees fluctuate within a range [23] Methanol - Market news: On August 18, the low - end price of methanol in Taicang spot is 2290 yuan/ton (- 20), etc. [24] - Main logic: On August 18, methanol futures prices fluctuate. The Inner Mongolia market price is slightly adjusted downward, but trading is okay. Port inventories increase. Downstream olefins are under pressure due to falling oil prices, which also affects methanol. Considering the high certainty of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, long positions in the far - month can still be considered later [24] Urea - Market news: On August 18, 2025, the high - end and low - end prices of urea in the Shandong market are 1740 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) and 1730 yuan/ton (+ 30 yuan/ton) respectively [24] - Main logic: Based on the actual export data from May to July and the existing export quota of 320 tons, the average monthly export in August and September needs to reach one million tons to meet the quota. Although the fundamental supply - demand is loose, market confidence recovers rapidly due to high export profits and expected high export volumes, and the market rebounds [25] Plastic (LLDPE) - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream price of LLDPE spot is 7300(0) yuan/ton, etc. [27] - Main logic: On August 18, the main plastic contract declines slightly. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, and there is still capital game at the macro level. The plastic's own fundamentals are under pressure, and overseas factors also need attention [27] PP - Market news: On August 18, the mainstream transaction price of East China PP drawing is 7000(- 30) yuan/ton, etc. [28] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PP contract fluctuates and declines. Oil prices fluctuate weakly in the short term, propane prices are weak, PP supply is increasing, demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, and the export window is limited. Attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff games [29] Propylene (PL) - Market news: On August 18, PL fluctuates, and the low - end market price of Shandong PL is 6400 yuan/ton [29] - Main logic: On August 18, the main PL contract fluctuates. Propylene enterprise inventories are controllable, and offers are slightly increased. Downstream factories follow demand, and high - price transactions are limited. The short - term market follows PP fluctuations, and the PP - PL polypropylene processing fee is the focus of the market [29] PVC - Market news: The benchmark price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4880(- 50) yuan/ton, etc. [31] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, PVC fundamentals are under pressure. Upstream autumn maintenance is about to start, downstream demand is rigid, export expectations are under pressure due to anti - dumping measures, and cost support is weak [31] Caustic soda - Market news: The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2625(+ 63) yuan/ton, etc. [32] - Main logic: At the macro level, there are still expectations of anti - involution, and policy orientation should be noted. At the micro level, the fundamentals are improving marginally. Alumina demand is increasing, non - aluminum demand is entering the peak season, and there is some restocking in the middle and lower reaches. Shandong maintenance increases in mid - to late August, and attention should be paid to whether the difficulty in liquid chlorine sales will force alkali plants to reduce production [32] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period spreads: Brent M1 - M2 is 0.55 with a change of 0, Dubai M1 - M2 is 0.9 with a change of 0.02, etc. [34] - Basis and inventory receipts: The basis of asphalt is 107 with a change of - 52, and the inventory receipts are 72850, etc. [35] - Inter - variety spreads: 1 - month PP - 3MA is - 140 with a change of 12, 1 - month TA - EG is 354 with a change of 50, etc. [37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk preference remains stable, and gold is in a box - range oscillation due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] - Gold prices failed to continue the upward trend after a rebound and fell back to around $3340 per ounce. The gold market is affected by geopolitical negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price trend will mainly depend on the Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump proposed that the US will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial assistance in the security field. Zelensky is ready for a tri - party meeting and hopes for "all - round" security guarantees. European leaders have different stances on the Russia - Ukraine issue, with Germany calling for a cease - fire first and France suggesting a four - party meeting [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is "uneasy" about the rise in service inflation, seeing it as a sign of the stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy [2] - China's Premier chaired a meeting, emphasizing the need to consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery and complete the annual economic and social development goals, focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and stimulating consumption potential [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the counter - subsidy investigation of imported dairy products from the EU until February 21, 2026, citing the complexity of the case [2] Price Logic - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump proposed a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party summit, advocating "talking while fighting" and possible "territorial exchanges". Zelensky agreed to participate and demanded comprehensive security guarantees, while Russia also emphasized the need for reliable guarantees. There are obvious differences among parties on cease - fire, security, and territorial issues [3] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is rising, and the CME tool shows that the market expects at least two interest - rate cuts this year, which supports the gold price. Although the US dollar has received some buying support due to strong PPI and retail data recently, rising inflation expectations and falling consumer confidence still limit its upside potential [3] Outlook - Next week, focus on Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The weekly range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $36 and $40 [6] Commodity Index - On August 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities: the composite index was 2231.32, down 0.23%; the commodity 20 index was 2475.86, down 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2267.54, down 0.49% [45] Precious Metals Index - On August 18, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.77% [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the entire black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5] - The mid - term outlooks for specific varieties such as steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are also "oscillation" [7][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As the transition between the off - season and peak season approaches, market concerns about the terminal demand for steel are rising. Although the seventh round of price increases for coke has started, the futures prices of coal and coke are falling. The production restriction before major events is slightly less than expected, and inventory pressure at the downstream of steel is emerging. The price is expected to oscillate within the current range in the near term [1][2] - The trading focus of the black building materials market is gradually shifting from the expectation of anti - involution on the supply side to the actual supply - demand situation. The weak reality is suppressing prices, and future attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Overseas mines' shipments increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly rebounded, slightly higher than last year's level. The total supply is relatively stable, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention [2][7] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly, but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and the possibility of short - term production cuts by steel enterprises due to profit reasons is small. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2][7] - **Inventory**: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly accumulating. The fundamental bearish drivers are limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2][7] 3.2 Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas have resumed production, but some mines' production is still restricted due to accidents and other factors. Short - term supply disturbances will continue due to over - production verification and the "276 - working - day" policy. The short - term impact of the adjustment of the error threshold between the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has basically dissipated, and the average daily customs clearance still exceeds 1,000 vehicles [2][12] - **Demand**: The seventh round of price increases for coke has started, profits are gradually recovering, production is slightly increasing, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Downstream enterprises are mainly purchasing on demand, spot trading is weakening, and some coal mines have inventory accumulation, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure due to a large number of pre - sold orders [2][12] - **Outlook**: Supply disturbances will continue, and there is unlikely to be a significant increase in supply before the parade. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term futures market still has support [2][12] Coke - **Supply**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the overall profit of coke enterprises turned positive, production started to improve, and production increased slightly. However, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state, and the seventh round of price increases has started [11] - **Demand**: Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Pig iron production increased slightly month - on - month. Under the weakening of the futures market, the purchasing enthusiasm of traders has decreased. Steel mills' inventory replenishment before the parade was active, and the arrival of goods has improved [11] - **Outlook**: As the parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of production restrictions for coke. The degree of production restriction for coke enterprises may be greater than that of steel mills. The short - term supply of coke will remain tight, and it will take time for the seventh round of price increases to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the impact of possible parade - related production restriction policies on the production and transportation of coke and steel enterprises [11] 3.3 Alloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) Manganese Silicon - **Cost**: Manganese silicon manufacturers pre - purchased raw material inventory before the parade, and the recent inventory replenishment is coming to an end. The trading atmosphere at ports is cooling down. With the increase in arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has started to decline from its high level [2][16] - **Supply - Demand**: Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel is still at a high level. The resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing in an environment of profit recovery. The supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [2][16] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support. However, supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and there may be downward pressure on the price in the medium - to - long term [16] Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: Industry profits have improved, and manufacturers' enthusiasm for resuming production has increased, leading to a gradual increase in ferrosilicon production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [17] - **Demand**: Steel production remains high, and the demand for ferrosilicon in steelmaking is still resilient. In the metal magnesium sector, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but downstream enterprises are trying to push down prices, and the magnesium ingot price remains stable overall [17] - **Outlook**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in the future, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals in the medium - to - long term. The upside potential of the price is not optimistic, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and adjustments in electricity costs [17] 3.4 Glass - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly accumulating, and there are many market sentiment disturbances [2][13] - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand is declining. Although the number of deep - processing orders has increased month - on - month, the number of days of raw glass inventory has increased significantly to a high for the year, indicating speculative purchasing by downstream enterprises. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has cooled down, and the sales of intermediate and upstream products have declined significantly [13] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is weak, but policy expectations are strong, and raw material prices are relatively high. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to oscillate downward when returning to fundamental trading [13] 3.5 Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Production is at a high level, and supply pressure persists. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase [15] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand. There are still some ignition production lines that have not produced glass, and the daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out, and the demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall inventory replenishment sentiment of downstream enterprises is weak, and they resist high prices [15] - **Outlook**: The over - supply pattern remains unchanged. After the increase in the futures market, spot trading is still weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the future, and the price center will decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15] 3.6 Steel - **Supply**: Last week, steel mills had both resumption and maintenance of production, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed little. There is a large amount of rebar delivery resources arriving at ports, and the inventory of rebar has increased significantly. The inventory accumulation of hot - rolled coil has slowed down, and the inventories of medium - thick plate and cold - rolled coil have increased. The apparent demand for the five major steel products has declined, and inventory is accumulating, showing off - season characteristics [7] - **Demand**: The speculative sentiment is poor, and the overall spot trading of steel is weak. The export orders for hot - rolled coil have improved, and domestic demand has some resilience [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening marginally in the off - season. Both supply and demand will be affected around the parade. The blast furnace production restriction depends on air quality, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The futures market may fluctuate more violently. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term, and future attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [7] 3.7 Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume of scrap steel has increased slightly month - on - month, with narrow fluctuations during the week [9] - **Demand**: The profit of electric arc furnaces is acceptable, and daily consumption has increased to a new high for the year. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also increased slightly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly [9] - **Inventory**: The inventory in factories has decreased slightly, and the number of available inventory days has dropped to a relatively low level [9] - **Outlook**: The supply of scrap steel is stable, and demand is strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [9]

Report Core View - CPO and innovative drug sentiments are at relatively high levels; military, AIGC, and robot sentiments are in an upward trend [1] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Summary by Related Catalogs - No relevant content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents the weekly data of coking coal and coke from August 8 to August 15, 2025, including production, inventory, profit, and other indicators of relevant enterprises and ports, reflecting the current market situation of the double - coking industry [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke Data - **247 Steel Mills**: The daily average hot metal output increased from 240.32 to 240.66, an increase of 0.34; the production decreased from 46.8 to 46.73, a decrease of 0.07; the inventory decreased from 619.28 to 609.8, a decrease of 9.48; the inventory available days decreased from 10.91 to 10.83, a decrease of 0.08 [1] - **All - sample Independent Coking Enterprises**: The production increased from 65.1 to 65.38, an increase of 0.28; the inventory decreased from 69.73 to 62.51, a decrease of 7.22; the ton - coke profit increased from - 16 to 20, an increase of 36 [1] - **Ports**: The inventory decreased from 218.15 to 215.11, a decrease of 3.04 [1] - **Total Coke Inventory**: It decreased from 907.16 to 887.42, a decrease of 19.74 [1] Coking Coal Data - **247 Steel Mills**: The inventory decreased from 808.66 to 805.8, a decrease of 2.86; the inventory available days decreased from 12.99 to 12.97, a decrease of 0.02 [2] - **All - sample Independent Coking Enterprises**: The inventory decreased from 987.92 to 976.88, a decrease of 11.04; the inventory available days decreased from 11.41 to 11.23, a decrease of 0.18 [2] - **Ports**: The imported coking coal inventory decreased from 277.34 to 255.49, a decrease of 21.85 [2] - **Ganqimaodu Port**: The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal decreased from 153922.5 to 142830, a decrease of 11092.5 [2] - **314 Independent Coal - washing Plants**: The capacity utilization rate increased from 36.22 to 36.51, an increase of 0.29; the daily average clean coal output increased from 26.04 to 26.4, an increase of 0.36; the clean coal inventory increased from 288.11 to 297.03, an increase of 8.92 [2] - **88 Coal Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate decreased from 85.04 to 84.81, a decrease of 0.23; the clean coal inventory decreased from 112.04 to 111.89, a decrease of 0.15; the raw coal production decreased from 8，58.95 to 856.64, a decrease of 2.32; the raw coal inventory decreased from 188.87 to 187.18, a decrease of 1.69; the ton - coal profit decreased from 440 to 433, a decrease of 7 [2] - **Total Coking Coal Inventory**: It decreased from 2474.07 to 2447.09, a decrease of 26.98 [2]

Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 33 of 2025 [2] Report Summary Government Bond Issuance Progress - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5%, with 593 billion yuan issued in August [4][5] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0%, with 376 billion yuan issued in August [10][25] - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12] - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18] - As of August 17, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20] Weekly Bond Issuance and Financing Data - This week, 190 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a decrease of 212 billion yuan from the previous week [4] - This week, 303 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, an increase of 230 billion yuan from the previous week [8] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -137 billion yuan, a decrease of 966 billion yuan from the previous week [12] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 2146 billion yuan, a decrease of 1239 billion yuan from the previous week [16] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 2009 billion yuan, a decrease of 2205 billion yuan from the previous week [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 33rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and net financing scale of various types of bonds as of August 17, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous week. 3. Summary by Related Content New Special Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 64.5% [4]. - This week, new special bonds issued 1.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.12 billion yuan compared with the previous week [4]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in August was 5.93 billion yuan [5]. New General Bond Issuance - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 72.0% [10]. - This week, new general bonds issued 3.03 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week [8]. - As of August 17, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in August was 3.76 billion yuan [25]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was -1.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.66 billion yuan compared with the previous week [12]. - As of August 17, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 65.6% [12]. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 21.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.39 billion yuan compared with the previous week [16]. - As of August 17, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 68.0% [18]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 20.09 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.05 billion yuan compared with the previous week [20]. - As of August 17, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 66.9% [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the long - term trend of gold. The dominant logic in the past quarter is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of rate - cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of rate - cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence [1][4] - The expectation of a 25BP rate cut in September remains stable, and attention should be paid to Powell's remarks at the upcoming Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [1][4] - In the short term, the upward movement of gold prices may need more momentum. The spot gold price below $3500 per ounce shows relatively mild fluctuations, and there may be greater upward potential after breaking through this level. The resistance at the $40 per ounce level for silver is still significant, and its breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - In July, the US PPI increased by 3.3% year - on - year, the highest level since February this year, with an expected increase of 2.5% and a previous value revised from 2.3% to 2.4%. It increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of flat. The core PPI increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with an expected increase of 2.9% and a previous value of 2.6%. It increased by 0.9% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a previous value of flat [2] - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, with an expected 228,000 and a previous value revised from 226,000 to 227,000. The four - week average was 221,750, compared with a previous value of 220,750. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending August 2 was 1,953,000, with an expected 1,964,000 and a previous value revised from 1,974,000 to 1,968,000 [2] - There is a growing divergence within the Fed regarding the September rate cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly opposes a 50 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting, believing it may send an unnecessary emergency signal. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urges the Fed not to "rush" to cut rates before inflation is fully under control. US Treasury Secretary Bezant clarifies that he is not pressuring the Fed to cut rates [3] Price Logic - Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated weakly, and the silver price declined slightly. The main factors suppressing the market were the unexpected rise in US PPI, the decline in weekly initial and continued jobless claims, and the hawkish remarks of some Fed officials. After the decline in the domestic equity market, market risk appetite decreased, leading to a larger decline in silver [4] Outlook - In the coming week, the price range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3330 and $3500 per ounce, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $37 and $40 per ounce [7]

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel Weekly Supply and Demand Data Interpretation - Date: August 14, 2025 - Researcher: Multiple individuals with corresponding qualification numbers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the steel industry continue to show marginal weakening, with inventory accumulation accelerating for the five major steel products, and the characteristics of the off - season persisting. The overall market sentiment is cooling, and with ongoing policy fluctuations, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Demand - **Threaded steel**: The apparent demand is 189,940 tons (-20,850 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.07% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The apparent demand is 314,750 tons (+8,540 tons), a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The apparent demand is 831,020 tons (-14,720 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [2]. Supply - **Threaded steel**: The production is 220,450 tons (-730 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The production is 315,590 tons (+700 tons), a year - on - year increase of 0.22% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The production is 871,630 tons (+2,420 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.28% [2]. Inventory - **Threaded steel**: The inventory is 587,190 tons (+30,510 tons), a year - on - year increase of 5.48% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The inventory is 357,470 tons (+840 tons), a year - on - year increase of 0.24% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The inventory is 1,415,970 tons (+40,610 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.95% [2]. Market Analysis - The production of copper plants has a mix of resumptions and inspections, and the production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils has changed little. There has been a significant increase in threaded steel inventory due to a large amount of threaded steel cutting resources arriving at the port and the warehousing of previously typhoon - affected goods. The demand has declined, while the export orders for hot - rolled coils have improved, but domestic demand remains weak. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils has also accumulated, and the overall market continues to show off - season characteristics [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday's rebar apparent demand data fell short of expectations, and combined with coking coal position limits, the black sector continued its weakening trend. Although some coal mines are resuming production, supply may still contract due to ongoing inspections. There is a strong expectation of production restrictions before major events, which provides strong support for prices. Steel downstream inventory pressure is emerging, and the performance in the next few weeks needs attention. If there are macro - level positives before the inventory contradiction intensifies, there is a chance of resonance. In the near term, prices are expected to oscillate within the current range with limited downside [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports dropped to last year's level. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2]. - Demand: The profitability rate of steel enterprises decreased slightly but is still at a high level year - on - year. Pig iron production increased slightly, and it is less likely for steel enterprises to cut production in the short term due to profit reasons. Attention should be paid to the production restriction policy in the second half of the month [2]. - Inventory: Iron ore ports are accumulating inventory, the number of stranded ships is decreasing, steel enterprises are slightly replenishing inventory, and the total inventory is slightly increasing. The fundamental bearish driving force is limited, and the future price is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Supply: In the main production areas, some coal mines have reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. On the import side, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimaodu Port has led to a decline in the number of customs - cleared vehicles to around a thousand, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area has restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term Mongolian coal imports may be restricted [3]. - Demand: Coke production is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders before and have no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange's position limit, market sentiment has declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese Alloy: The ex - works price of manganese ore has increased, the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers has rebounded, and there is support on the demand side for manganese ore. With the current acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore is gradually rising. In an environment of industry profit recovery, the resumption of production by manufacturers is continuing, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese - silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy related to specific production restriction requirements [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the market supply - demand gap will tend to be filled, and there are still hidden concerns in the medium - to - long - term fundamentals. The upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. 3.4 Glass - Supply: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory is slightly increasing, and the internal contradiction is not prominent, but there are many market sentiment disturbances [4]. - Demand: After the decline in the glass futures market, the sentiment in the spot market has declined, the mid - stream has increased shipments, and the upstream production and sales have declined significantly. Recently, the increase in coal prices has strengthened cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices will oscillate widely [4]. 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: The over - supply pattern has not changed, production is at a high level, and supply pressure still exists. Although there is no short - term production disturbance, production is expected to continue to increase [17]. - Demand: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out. The demand for heavy soda ash is flat. The downstream procurement of light soda ash is flat, but the overall downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. The sentiment affects the futures market, and the large month - to - month spread alleviates some delivery pressure, but the downstream's willingness to receive goods is weak. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [17]. 3.6 Specific Product Analyses 3.6.1 Steel - Core Logic: Speculative sentiment is poor, some futures - spot traders are selling, and terminal buyers are more cautious. Steel mill production is a mix of resumption and maintenance, and the output of rebar and hot - rolled coils has not changed much. Rebar inventory has increased significantly, and demand has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil export orders have improved, and domestic demand has resilience, with inventory accumulation slowing down. The inventories of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils have increased, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products has declined, continuing the off - season characteristics [9]. - Outlook: The sentiment in the coking coal market has cooled, and the futures market has declined from its high. Currently, the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, but there may be disturbances in supply - demand and cost before the military parade. It is expected that the short - term futures market will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restriction and terminal demand [9]. 3.6.2 Iron Ore - Core Logic: Port trading volume was 130.2 (+46) million tons. The price of the swap main contract was 102.64 (-0.87) US dollars per ton. Spot market prices fell by 7 - 15 yuan per ton, and port trading volume increased significantly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand is strong. Pig iron production increased, and inventory increased slightly [9]. - Outlook: Iron ore demand is at a high level, supply and inventory are stable, and the fundamental bearish driving force is limited. Future prices are expected to oscillate [10]. 3.6.3 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel increased slightly week - on - week. The demand from electric furnaces increased to a new high this year, and the demand from blast furnaces also increased slightly. The factory inventory decreased slightly, and the available inventory days dropped to a relatively low level [11]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both increasing, and the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable. The price is expected to oscillate [11]. 3.6.4 Coke - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has cooled, and the spot price has declined. After the sixth round of price increases was fully implemented, coke enterprise profits turned positive, and production increased slightly. Downstream steel mills are profitable and actively producing, and the demand for coke is strong. Although there is a large amount of inventory in the mid - stream, the supply - demand structure is still tight [13]. - Outlook: As the military parade approaches, there are continuous rumors of coke production restrictions. The supply - demand of coke will remain tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of production restriction policies on coking and steel mills [13]. 3.6.5 Coking Coal - Core Logic: The futures market sentiment has declined after the exchange's position limit. Some coal mines have reduced production due to various reasons, and short - term supply disturbances will continue. Mongolian coal imports may be restricted. The demand for coking coal is strong, and coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure [14]. - Outlook: Due to the impact of over - production inspections, coking coal supply is expected to recover slowly. Although the sentiment has declined after the position limit, the short - term futures market still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [14]. 3.6.6 Manganese - Silicon - Core Logic: The manganese - silicon futures price followed the sector down after the significant decline in the coal - coke futures price. The spot price remained firm. The cost of manganese ore is rising, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser as manufacturers resume production. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [17]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term upside price space is limited [18]. 3.6.7 Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: After the market sentiment cooled and the coal - coke futures price dropped significantly, the ferrosilicon futures market weakened. The spot market is short of supply, and prices are firm. The supply is expected to increase as manufacturers resume production, and the demand is relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the anti - involution policy [19]. - Outlook: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate. However, the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have hidden concerns, and the upside price space is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the coal market and electricity costs [19].