1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for each energy and chemical product, which can be summarized as follows based on the rating standard: - **Oscillating**: PX, PTA, short - fiber, polyester bottle - chips, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, caustic soda [11][12][18][19][22][25][26][27][29] - **Oscillating Weakly**: crude oil, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, pure benzene, styrene, ethylene glycol [6][7][9][10][13][14][16] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is in a volatile pattern during the National Day holiday. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and geopolitical factors still cause disruptions. The rebound space of crude oil is limited due to the weakening crack spread of refined oil [1][2]. - The prices of basic chemical products changed little during the National Day holiday. The industrial chain lacks a clear trend due to the volatile crude oil and the low valuation of chemicals. Investors can try positive spreads for severely loss - making products [2]. - Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. For example, asphalt prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in production; high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils follow the trend of crude oil; methanol shows a slight inventory build - up during the holiday and oscillates [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: EIA raises the 2025 and 2026 US oil production forecasts. OPEC+ eight oil - producing countries will further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. There are ongoing conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and the Hamas reaches an agreement to end the Gaza war [6]. - **Main Logic**: During the holiday, oil prices first fell and then rose. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the supply surplus pressure remains. The conflict between Palestine and Israel eases, and the geopolitical disturbances are mainly from the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The US commercial crude oil inventory and production increase, and the refinery operating rate rises. If geopolitical disturbances weaken, the oil price center may move down [7]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: The expected increase in production puts pressure on asphalt futures prices. The geopolitical premium declines, and the supply tension eases. The asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The premium turns negative, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand has some improvement, but the major drivers are weakening [10]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates weakly following crude oil. It faces pressure at the 3500 level, and there are supply and demand challenges [10]. - **Methanol**: The inventory slightly accumulates during the holiday. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the port inventory pressure is high. There may be short - term low - buying opportunities [22]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern is loose. The impact of the Indian tender during the holiday is limited, and the short - term fundamentals are weak. The market may oscillate and wait for policy adjustments and the progress of autumn sowing [23]. - **PX**: The supply increases while the demand is weak, and the processing fee is under pressure. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November and December [11]. - **PTA**: The cost side stabilizes, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The mid - term inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply pressure is large during the National Day due to smooth device restarts. The port arrival volume increases, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The cost guidance and self - supply - demand drive are limited. The inventory and profit remain within a certain range [18]. - **Polyester Bottle - chips**: Attention should be paid to whether factories strictly follow the production - cut plan after profit repair. The processing fee expansion space is limited [19]. - **Styrene**: The cost support gradually appears, but the high inventory of upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce. The profit is at a low level, and one can try to widen the profit [15]. - **LLDPE**: There are geopolitical disturbances during the holiday. The impact of oil prices on the opening of polyolefins is limited. The fundamental support is weak, and it is advisable to hold short positions [25]. - **PP**: OPEC+ increases production, and oil prices fluctuate widely during the holiday. The supply side has an incremental trend, and the inventory pressure exists. It oscillates in the short term [26]. - **PL**: Some devices stop during the holiday, and the market trading atmosphere is cautious. The volatility may increase [27]. - **PVC**: The fundamental pressure exists. The upstream production is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is stable. The cost change is expected to be small [29]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking and upstream production changes [29]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent M1 - M2 at 0.37 with a change of 0.07, and PX 1 - 5 months at - 40 with a change of - 8 [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 76 with a change of 42, and the warehouse receipt is 44,430 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA at - 132 with a change of 42, and 1 - month TA - EG at 387 with a change of - 41 [34]. 3.4 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index of commodities is 2224.82, down 0.46%; the commodity 20 index is 2499.78, down 0.42%; the industrial products index is 2219.36, down 0.85% [276]. - The energy index on September 30, 2025, is 1199.36, with a daily decline of 2.25%, a 5 - day decline of 0.27%, a 1 - month decline of 1.59%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.33% [278].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The price volatility of gold and silver has slightly increased, but the absolute level remains low, and the price has not reached the extreme congestion in April. The short - term upward trend is expected to continue, and the target prices of gold and silver are raised respectively [1][3] - The follow - up focuses on two aspects: the progress of the US government shutdown and the release of non - farm and inflation data after the shutdown ends, which may cause short - term disturbances to the interest rate cut expectations; and the change in price volatility. If the price volatility significantly increases, the risk of price adjustment will also increase [1][3][4] - The upward logic of precious metals in the fourth quarter is smooth. At the beginning of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, liquidity easing is the short - term driver, while debt over - issuance and the contraction of the US dollar credit caused by anti - globalization are the long - term bullish cornerstones of gold, and silver also benefits synchronously [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - In September, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, compared with an expected increase of 51,000 and a previous increase of 54,000 [2] - The US September ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, with an expected 49 and a previous 48.7. The new orders index was 48.9, expected 50 and previous 51.4, falling into contraction again after a brief expansion in August. The employment index was 45.3, expected 44.3 and previous 43.8. The price - paid index was 61.9, expected 62.7 and previous 63.7, and has declined for three consecutive months [2] - The US September ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50, expected 51.7 and previous 52. The new orders index dropped to 50.4, almost erasing the previous month's gains. The employment index contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with the contraction rate slowing down. The price - paid index slightly rose to 69.4, one of the highest levels in three years [2] - Takamichi Sanae won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election on the 4th, becoming the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party and is expected to be Japan's first female prime minister [2] Price Logic - During the National Day holiday, precious metal prices continued to rise. The US dollar gold officially broke through the 4000 - dollar mark, and the silver price approached 50 dollars. The precious metal sector was the most eye - catching in the market [3] - During the holiday, the US government shut down, and the non - farm data was suspended. The market traded on the idea that "no news is good news", combined with the weak ADP employment and PMI data, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations slightly increased again [3] - Takamichi Sanae's victory in the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election and her right - wing stance increased the risk of geopolitical conflicts in the Asia - Pacific region, further boosting the willingness to allocate gold [3] Outlook - The London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [4000, 4200] dollars per ounce, and the London silver spot is expected to be in the range of [48, 55] dollars per ounce [4] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index was 2224.82, down 0.46%; the commodity 20 index was 2499.78, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2219.36, down 0.85% [42] Precious Metal Index - On September 30, 2025, the precious metal index was 3087.93, with a daily increase of 0.57%, a 5 - day increase of 2.70%, a 1 - month increase of 9.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 39.57% [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the uncertainty of supply - side policies and the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The increasing production capacity of lithium ore will limit the upside potential of lithium prices [1]. - For industrial silicon, the price fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. For polysilicon, the price has high volatility because of the repeated policy expectations. For lithium carbonate, after the end of the production suspension expectation, the price returns to a pressured and volatile state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Industrial Silicon** - **Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuates due to the changes in coal prices and the resumption of production in the northwest region. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The cumulative production from January to September was 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3%. The latest domestic inventory was 445,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In August, the export volume was 76,642 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The cumulative export from January to August was 491,353 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August was 7.36GW, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 55.3%. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.6GW, a year - on - year increase of 64.7% [6]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption of production of large factories in the northwest has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. In September, the supply of industrial silicon increased significantly. The supply is expected to decline in the dry season in the southwest at the end of October, and the overall supply is still affected by the production rhythm and scale in the northwest. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory is relatively stable [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price declined due to the loosening of coal prices before the holiday. Recently, the resumption of production of large factories has slowed down, and the price of industrial silicon shows short - term oscillation. The resumption of production of large factories in the northwest needs to be continuously monitored [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Viewpoint**: Due to the repeated policy expectations, the price of polysilicon continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 140 to 8,090. In August, the export volume was about 2,992 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.9%, and the cumulative export from January to August was 16,517 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.3%. In August, the import volume was about 1,005.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77.81%, and the cumulative import from January to August was 13,385 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.59%. The cumulative new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to August was 230.61GW, a year - on - year increase of 65% [7]. - **Main Logic**: From the perspective of supply fundamentals, the production of polysilicon in August has recovered to over 130,000 tons and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the anti - involution policy will limit the supply of polysilicon. On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, but it also overdrawn the installation demand in the second half of the year. The subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken. Overall, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon still has pressure, and the price fluctuation increases [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant impact on the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Viewpoint**: After the end of the production suspension expectation, the price of lithium carbonate returns to a pressured and volatile state. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [9][10]. - **Information Analysis**: On September 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 1.52% to 72,800 yuan/ton, and the total position decreased by 19,893 lots to 676,349 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 71,300 yuan/ton. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 590 to 41,709 lots. In September 2025, the monthly production of domestic lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 52% [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the market has strong supply and demand. After the successful submission of the reserve report on September 30, the price may be under pressure and oscillate. Although there is a supply - demand gap, it is less than expected. The production in September increased significantly, and the production in October is expected to reach 90,000 tons. The market generally expects no more production suspensions. The import of lithium carbonate may increase in the future. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the total inventory is still large. The number of warehouse receipts is gradually recovering, which suppresses the price. Overall, the domestic supply - demand gap is not obvious, and the supply has great elasticity, so the price is under long - term pressure [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the expectation of future oversupply and supply recovery suppresses the price. It is expected that the price will mainly oscillate in the short term [10][11]. 3.2行情监测 - **Industrial Silicon**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Polysilicon**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Lithium Carbonate**: No specific content is provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a positive trend after the holiday, the bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the strategy of shorting volatility in index options can be appropriately adopted [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Trends and Strategies Stock Index Futures - After - holiday trend is positive. During the holiday, the offshore Hong Kong market first rose and then declined, with semiconductor, electrical equipment, and price - increase chains leading the gains, which is beneficial to the anti - involution and dual - innovation styles in the A - share market. The weakening of the Hang Seng Index in the second half of the week may be related to the US dollar index, but the weak - dollar assumption remains unchanged. The positive factors for the post - holiday A - share market include positive expectations for the 15th Five - Year Plan, large - scale technology stocks outperforming the market, and pre - holiday resting funds likely to re - enter the market. Under the dominance of domestic institutional investors, the dual - innovation sector is expected to outperform, followed by CSI 1000 and CSI 2000. The operation suggestion is to hold IM contracts [1][7] Stock Index Options - The strategy of shorting volatility can be appropriately adopted. Before the holiday, the option strategy was defensive for equity positions. After the holiday, as the market stabilizes and the previous long - option positions are closed, the implied volatility of options is likely to decline naturally, so shorting volatility is recommended this week [2][7] Bond Index Futures - The bond market is expected to be volatile and cautious in the short - term. On September 30, the main contracts of bond index futures rose collectively. The central bank's reverse repurchase net withdrawal on the 30th tightened the overnight capital market. The slightly better - than - expected September manufacturing PMI, the central bank's plan to conduct a 1.1 - trillion 3 - month outright reverse repurchase on October 9, and some trading desks' net buying of spot bonds contributed to the positive sentiment in the bond market. During the National Day holiday, new policies and consumption data emerged. In the short - term, factors such as fund fee reform and the stock - bond seesaw may continue to affect the bond market. The central bank's stance on policies implies that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may need to wait. In a volatile market, long - term bonds have greater fluctuations, and long - term arbitrage opportunities are recommended. The yield curve may continue to steepen. Operation suggestions include a cautious trend strategy, paying attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels, long - term arbitrage opportunities, and curve steepening [3][7][9] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data released this week include China's September official manufacturing PMI (49.8, slightly exceeding expectations), the US September ISM manufacturing PMI (49.1), and China's September foreign exchange reserves (33386.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 165 billion US dollars from the end of August) [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking US Macroeconomics - The US government shutdown continues, but Goldman Sachs believes it is unlikely to last beyond October 15. The two - party dispute focuses on the medical subsidy bill expiring on November 1, and if Trump shows willingness to discuss health issues, the Democrats may agree to a short - term reopening of the government [11] Domestic Macroeconomics - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of September were 33386.58 billion US dollars, an increase of 165 billion US dollars from the end of August, and gold reserves increased by 40,000 ounces to 74.06 million ounces, with 11 consecutive months of increases. The increase in foreign exchange reserves is due to factors such as exchange rate conversion and asset price changes, and China's stable economic development is conducive to maintaining the stability of foreign exchange reserves [11] Precious Metals - On October 7, the New York gold futures price hit a record high of over 4000 US dollars per ounce, and the London spot gold price also exceeded 3990 US dollars per ounce. Factors such as the US fiscal deficit, geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold - buying, and Fed rate - cut expectations have driven the rise. Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 to 4900 US dollars per ounce [12] Real Estate - In the first three quarters of 2025, the financing scale of real - estate enterprises was 307.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The financing scale in the third quarter was 114.5 billion yuan, a 5% increase from the previous quarter but a 35% decrease year - on - year, remaining at a historical low. Most private real - estate enterprises, especially troubled ones, still face significant financing difficulties [12] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring No specific monitoring data content is provided in the given text for detailed summary.

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-10-09 供应扰动继续发酵，国庆期间基本金属 进一步走高 有⾊观点：供应扰动继续发酵，国庆期间基本⾦属进⼀步⾛⾼ 交易逻辑：美联储重启降息后，投资者对宏观面预期较为正面，国庆期间 宏观面相对平稳，基本金属价格无视美元指数反弹而进一步上涨。供需面 来看，反向开票问题使得废料供应收紧，再生金属冶炼减产风险加大，国 庆前后铜锡和锌等品种供应扰动不断；9月以来，终端消费略微偏弱，但 相对平稳，供需预期将趋紧，这对金属价格有支撑。中短期来看，供应扰 动问题持续发酵引发部分品种脉冲上涨，但考虑到消费相对一般且美元指 数反弹，预计国庆后下游或有逐步消化的过程，这将限制进一步上行的高 度，节后追涨需谨慎，减持多头或暂获利了结为宜，待需求表现稳定后， 可重新关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会，长期来看，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期 仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这将进一步推 高基本金属价格。 铜观点：供应端收缩逻辑继续发酵，铜价延续偏强⾛势。 氧化铝观点：基本⾯仍偏弱势，氧化铝价上⽅承压。 铝观点：观察需求成⾊，铝价震荡运⾏。 铝合 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-10-09 假日期间外盘变化不大，品种多观望 油脂：等待进一步信息指引，或继续震荡盘整 蛋白粕：多空并存，延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 生猪：节后需求转淡，猪价延续弱势 天然橡胶：外盘波动有限，关注节后盘面情绪 合成橡胶：盘面延续区间震荡 棉花：棉价延续偏弱走势 白糖：糖价预计延续低位震荡整理 纸浆：假日期间无重点变化，纸浆延续弱势格局 双胶纸：假期交投偏弱，节后现货仍有下行压力 原木：弱现实与旺季预计博弈，关注下游需求兑现 【异动品种】 玉米观点：新粮逐步上市，节日期间下跌为主 信息：根据Mysteel，锦州港平舱价为2300元/吨，环比变化0元/吨。国内 玉米均价2350元/吨，环比变化-2元/吨。主力合约收盘价2178元/吨，环 比变化+0.6%。 逻辑：节日期间，随着新粮逐步放量，价格整体偏弱运 行。锦州港晨间集港量在假期期间维持高位400-700车范围。节日前期， 华北深加工门前早间剩余车量明显增加，节中一度攀升至近1800车高位。 伴随供应增加，锦州港新粮收购价从节前的2200元以上快速跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Global Macro Situation**: The US government is in a shutdown, and Japan may have its first female prime - minister. Domestically, the economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. In October, domestic assets benefit from policy expectations and ample liquidity, while overseas focus is on the Fed's potential October rate cut and the BOJ's inaction. The weak - dollar trend continues but at a slower pace, and US stocks face risks while oscillating upwards. In asset allocation, the order of preference in the fourth quarter is equities > commodities > bonds [8]. - **Market Outlook for Different Sectors**: Most sectors are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, including financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agriculture sectors [9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Movements - **Financial Instruments**: Stock index futures, such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures, have shown varying degrees of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly increases. Treasury futures have generally been weak, with some showing small increases and others decreases [3]. - **Industry Indices**: Industries like construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals have positive price increases, while sectors such as food and beverage, and some technology - related industries have seen declines [4]. - **Overseas Commodities**: Energy commodities like NYMEX WTI crude and ICE Brent crude have declined, while precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have increased. Non - ferrous metals and agricultural products also show different price trends [4]. - **Domestic Commodities**: Precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products all have their own price movement characteristics, with some rising and some falling [5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown may negatively impact the US economy. The potential election of Japan's first female prime - minister, who advocates "Abenomics" and has a tough stance on China, may affect Sino - Japanese relations and market risk appetite [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic economy continues to stabilize, with the manufacturing PMI rising and the non - manufacturing PMI falling slightly. During the holiday, consumption and travel were active, but movie box - office consumption was weak [8]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Analysis - **Financial Sector**: The stock market has a volume - shrinking rebound, and the bond market remains weak. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while stock index options and treasury futures are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Shipping Sector**: Attention is paid to the rate of freight price decline. The container shipping to Europe line and steel - related products are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: A negative feedback loop is difficult to form, and the sector is expected to remain volatile before the holiday [9]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Supply disruptions continue to drive price movements, and most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile [9]. - **Energy Chemical Sector**: Crude oil continues to be volatile, and the chemical sector is mainly for hedging and arbitrage, with most products expected to be volatile [11]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard, and most agricultural products are expected to be volatile [11].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index and Precious Metals Continue to Rise, Most Commodities Show Flat Trends - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250930" [1] - Author: Zhong Ding from CITIC Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Trump's tariff escalation and the US government shutdown crisis have increased policy risks. There are significant differences within the Fed regarding the pace of interest rate cuts and the policy framework [5]. - Domestic macro: In August, the year - on - year growth of industrial enterprise profits reached 20.4%, the highest in nearly two years, and the cumulative growth rate turned positive to +0.9%. However, the demand shortage remains. In the fourth quarter, the asset allocation order is equity > commodities > bonds [5]. - Asset view: Be cautious of external risk disturbances during holidays. Maintain the strategic advantage of equity and gold in the medium - term, and balance the tactical allocation [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Performance 3.1.1. Domestic Main Commodities - Shipping: The container shipping route to Europe has seen price drops, with a daily decline of -2.11% and a quarterly decline of -16.73% [2]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are rising. Gold has a daily increase of 1.22% and a quarterly increase of 12.63%, while silver has a daily increase of 2.89% and a quarterly increase of 24.21% [2]. - Non - ferrous metals: Most non - ferrous metals show mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. - Black building materials: Products like rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore have different price changes, with iron ore having a quarterly increase of 13.62% [2]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil, fuel oil, and other products also have various price trends. Crude oil has a quarterly increase of 2.54% [2]. - Agricultural products: The prices of soybeans, palm oil, and other agricultural products fluctuate [2]. 3.1.2. Financial Markets - Stock index futures: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, etc. are rising. The CSI 300 futures have a daily increase of 1.76% and a quarterly increase of 18.50% [3]. - Treasury bond futures: Most treasury bond futures are falling, such as the 2 - year treasury bond futures with a quarterly decline of -0.30% [3]. - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index has a quarterly increase of 1.47% [3]. 3.1.3. Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have different price trends. ICE Brent oil has a quarterly increase of 3.29% [3]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold and silver prices are rising. COMEX gold has a quarterly increase of 14.32% [3]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME metals also show mixed price movements [3]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans, corn, etc. have price fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.2.1. Finance - Stock index futures: Driven by technology events, the growth style is active, and the short - term outlook is for a volatile rise [6]. - Bond market: The bond market remains weak. Treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.2. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: Influenced by the restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September, prices are expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.3. Shipping - Container shipping route to Europe: As the peak season fades in the third quarter, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.4. Black Building Materials - Steel, coke, iron ore, etc.: Affected by factors such as demand expectations and policy disturbances, prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2.5. Non - ferrous and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.: Affected by supply disturbances and other factors, prices show different trends, with copper expected to rise with fluctuations [6]. 3.2.6. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, LPG, etc.: Affected by supply - demand changes and geopolitical factors, prices are expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.7. Agriculture - Oils, protein meals, etc.: Affected by factors such as trade policies and weather, prices are expected to fluctuate, and the price of pigs is expected to fall with fluctuations [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On September 29, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell, and commodities showed mixed performances with coking coal and coke leading the declines [9][12] - The NDRC will strengthen the implementation of macro - economic policies in a timely manner as the current economic operation still faces challenges [40][41] Summaries by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 29, equity indices rose (IM up 2.0%), CGB futures fell (TL down 0.5%), and commodities had mixed results. Top gainers in commodities were silver (up 3.9% with 6.5% m - o - m open interest drop), gold (up 1.3% with 0.4% m - o - m open interest drop), and apple (up 1.2% with 4.5% m - o - m open interest drop). Top decliners were coking coal (down 5.0% with 9.5% m - o - m open interest drop), silicon metal (down 4.3% with 14.2% m - o - m open interest drop), and coke (down 4.2% with 3.5% m - o - m open interest drop) [9][10][11] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold & Silver**: On September 29, gold rose 1.3% to 866.52 yuan/gram, and silver rose 3.9% to 10939 yuan/kg. During the National Day holiday, U.S. non - farm payroll and PMI data release and the risk of data delay due to a U.S. government shutdown should be noted. Gold's bullish trend persists, and in Q4, Fed rate - cut expectations and independence risks will drive the upward trend. In H1 2026, a shift to "recovery trade" may pose correction risks. Long - term, gold is a preferred asset for hedging U.S. dollar credit risks. Silver has greater short - term upside flexibility and may challenge its 2011 historical high [16][17][19] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coke**: On September 29, coke fell 4.2% to 1647 yuan/ton. Mainstream coke enterprises have raised prices due to profit pressure, but steel mills haven't responded. Short - term price fluctuations are expected. Supply decreased due to poor profits, demand was supported by rising molten iron output, and inventories showed steel mills increasing stocks and coke enterprises slightly reducing stocks [24][26][28] - **Coking Coal**: On September 29, coking coal fell 5.0% to 1154 yuan/ton. Supply recovery is slow, and short - term mid - and downstream stockpiling demand can be sustained. Short - term price fluctuations are expected. Some coal mines in Shanxi resumed production, and imports decreased. Coke output declined slightly, but mid - and downstream purchasing was active [30][32][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The NDRC stated that in August, China's economy was generally stable. However, it still faces challenges, and the NDRC will strengthen macro - economic policies in a timely manner [40][41] - China will add a visa category for young sci - tech talents to promote exchanges [40][41] - Premier Li Qiang met with DPRK Foreign Minister Choe Son hui, and both sides are willing to implement the consensus of the top leaders [40] - From January to August, SOEs' total operating revenue increased 0.2% YoY, while total profits decreased 2.7% YoY [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the National Day holiday approaching, it is advisable for long - position holders to reduce positions to control risks. In the short - to - medium term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support metal prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support basic metal prices. The report maintains the view of buying copper, aluminum, and tin on dips but suggests reducing long positions or taking profits due to the approaching holiday [1]. - Copper: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Aluminum oxide: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. Aluminum: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. Aluminum alloy: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. Zinc: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. Lead: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. Nickel: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. Stainless steel: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. Tin: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in Indonesian copper mine production has a significant impact, and copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly. - **Analysis**: Grasberg mine in Indonesia may see a 35% drop in 2026 production. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September 2025. In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 tons month - on - month and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. As of September 29, copper inventories increased by 0.82 tons to 14.83 tons. After the release of "770 - document", there was a large - scale shutdown and production reduction in the recycled copper market [7][8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut supports copper prices. The supply of copper mines is disrupted, and the cost of scrap copper recycling has increased, leading to expected production cuts in electrolytic copper. Terminal demand is in the peak season, and downstream stocking willingness has increased. If inventories continue to decline, copper prices may remain strong [9]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and with increased supply disruptions and a low - level US dollar index, copper is expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Aluminum Oxide - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals remain weak, and the upside of aluminum oxide prices is under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the prices of aluminum oxide in various regions declined. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of aluminum oxide, with the winning bid price down 10 - 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Aluminum oxide warehouse receipts increased by 10,548 tons to 159,759 tons [10][11]. - **Logic**: Macro - sentiment affects the market. The operating capacity remains high, and the strong inventory - accumulation trend continues. The fundamentals are weak, but the decline in ore prices in the fourth quarter is limited, which may restrict the downside. Potential production - cut expectations and Guinea - related disruptions will affect prices [11]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum oxide is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventories have decreased, and aluminum prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream consumption - area electrolytic aluminum inventories decreased by 2.5 tons compared to last Thursday and 4.6 tons compared to last Monday. Aluminum rod inventories also decreased. The State Council's eight - department document promotes the stable growth of the non - ferrous industry [11][12]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut makes the US dollar weak. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Pre - holiday stocking drives inventory reduction, and the spot is at a discount. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, consumption and inventory - reduction sustainability need to be observed. In the medium term, with limited supply growth and resilient demand, the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [12]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support remains, and the market will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged. The average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton. The EU may impose a 30% tax on scrap metal exports. In August 2025, the import volume of unwrought aluminum alloy decreased by 16.7% year - on - year [13]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost reduction space is limited. Supply - side production is increasing, and demand is marginally improving. Inventories are accumulating, and prices are expected to oscillate. There are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage. In the medium term, supply and demand are weak, but raw - material disruptions are possible, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The decline in ferrous product prices causes zinc prices to oscillate weakly. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a discount to the main contract. As of September 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventories decreased by 0.90 tons. CZSPT set the import zinc concentrate processing fee for the end of Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 US dollars/dry ton [15][16]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is slightly negative. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand is average. Fundamentals are in surplus, but the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation makes the non - ferrous sector strong, and zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: Zinc ingot production will remain high in September, and inventories may accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Pre - holiday stocking has weakened, and lead prices are under pressure. - **Analysis**: On September 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingot decreased by 125 yuan/ton. Social inventories of lead ingots decreased by 0.43 tons. After pre - holiday stocking, there may be new low - price stocking intentions, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation after the holiday [17]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are narrowing, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead is decreasing. The cost of recycled lead smelting is rising, and production is increasing. Demand is in the transition period, and the lead - acid battery industry's operating rate is high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the US dollar rebounded slightly. Pre - holiday battery factory stocking is almost over, and demand may decline. Supply may increase, and costs are rising slightly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [21]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventories continue to increase, and nickel prices will oscillate widely. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME nickel inventories increased by 1188 tons to 231,312 tons. High - nickel pig iron prices are under pressure. A battery recycling company in Germany will build a large - scale lithium - battery recycling plant [21][22]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Nickel salt prices are slightly weakening, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term trading is recommended, and the performance of the ore end and macro - sentiment should be observed [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the non - ferrous sector is strong, but LME nickel inventories are increasing significantly. Nickel prices may strengthen in the short term, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended in the long term [23]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The slight decline in ferronickel prices leads to a correction in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: As of September 29, stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 357 tons. The average price of SMM 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 yuan/nickel point [25]. - **Logic**: Ferronickel and ferrochrome prices are stable. Stainless - steel production increased in August. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipts decreased. The structural over - supply pressure has eased. - **Outlook**: There is a risk of increased production cuts by steel mills. The fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory and cost changes. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions in Indonesia reappear, and tin prices will oscillate. - **Analysis**: On September 29, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 105 tons to 2670 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons to 5950 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot decreased by 2300 yuan/ton [25]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the core concern. The resumption of production in Wabang's Manxiang mining area is slow, and African tin production is unstable. Tin concentrate processing fees are low, and the operating rate of refined tin is low. Supply is tight, but terminal demand is weakening in the second half of the year, and inventory reduction is difficult in Q4. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices have bottom support and are expected to oscillate [26]. 3.2行情监测 Not provided in the content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2235.10, down 0.13%; the commodity 20 index was 2510.22, down 0.08%; the industrial products index was 2238.46, down 0.50%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2406.68, with a daily decline of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 1.43%, a one - month increase of 0.89%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.26% [152][154].