投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-11-18 股债跷跷板⾏情 股指期货：时间换空间，哑铃配置过渡。 股指期权：备兑防御为主。 国债期货：资⾦⾯扰动或有限。 股指期货方面，时间换空间，哑铃配置过渡。周一权益市场窄幅震荡 为主，主要指数收绿居多，其中全A指数跌0.15%，风格层面，哑铃结构占 优，配置属性偏向防御化特征。同时量能在2万亿之下，事件空窗期资金 进攻意愿降低。近期外部纷争对市场情绪产生一定压制，但中性基准判断 不会出现地区冲突，故扰动偏短期。同时，我们认为短期走出震荡的可能 性也偏低，其一，纳斯达克ETF出现高溢价，而这一状态多数出现在A股偏 好回调的周期中，其二，12月重要会议时点尚远，暂不支持政策炒作的基 础。故持有哑铃结构度过过渡期，以时间换空间，静态春躁行情启动。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡走弱，沪指单日收 跌0.46%。期权方面，各个品种成交额小幅回升7.78%，但依旧位于10月以 来流动性的较低位置。期权情绪指标走势偏弱，尤其以50、300等大盘相 关品种的降幅较深，期权交易情绪伴随风格切换。期权隐含波动率平均下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On November 17th, equity index futures declined while CGB futures rose; lithium carbonate hit the daily limit up, with precious metals leading the decline [2][9][12]. - For lithium carbonate, the market remains tight in Nov - Dec; potential easing in Dec if Jianxiawo resumes production soon. Long - term demand is positive, and a bullish bias is recommended with buying on dips after corrections [18][19]. - For gold, short - term price is expected to consolidate within a range due to Fed's uncertainty. Long - term, gold price center is expected to shift upward as it hedges against dollar credit risks [25][26][27]. - For silver, short - term price is projected to consolidate within a range, supported by tight overseas spot supply. Long - term, it benefits from dollar credit contraction and global economic recovery [34][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH and IF fell approximately 1%, while TL gained 0.3% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were lithium carbonate (9.0% rise, 8.9% position increase m - o - m), SCFIS(Europe) (6.7% rise, 2.2% position increase m - o - m), and iron ore (1.8% rise, 0.2% position increase m - o - m). Top three decliners were silver (4.1% drop, 1.1% position decrease m - o - m), gold (3.1% drop, 10.5% position decrease m - o - m), and polysilicon (2.9% drop, 6.2% position decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Lithium Carbonate: Rose 9.0% to 95,200 yuan/ton on Nov 17th. Supply is restricted by ore shortage, demand is currently robust, and social inventories are destocking. A bullish bias is recommended with buying on dips [16][17][19]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - Gold: Fell 3.1% to 929.46 yuan/gram on Nov 17th. Short - term price may consolidate due to Fed's uncertainty, while long - term price center is expected to rise [24][25][27]. - Silver: Fell 4.1% to 11,933 yuan/kilogram on Nov 17th. Short - term price is expected to consolidate with support from tight overseas supply, and long - term it benefits from economic recovery [33][34][35]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The 22nd issue of Qiushi Journal on November 16 published an important article by Xi Jinping titled "Develop New Quality Productive Forces According to Local Conditions" [39]. - China's Foreign Ministry stated that Premier Li Qiang has no arrangements to meet with Japanese leaders during the G20 summit [39]. 3.2.2 Industry News - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing emphasized efforts to make the capital market more resilient, with more inclusive systems, higher - quality listed companies, more effective regulation, and deeper opening - up [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but repeated macro - expectations and average demand limit the upside potential of prices. Base metals are expected to experience a pull - back after a rally and then enter a period of sideways consolidation. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are favored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Copper**: With the reopening of the US government, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The supply constraints of copper remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. Considering the warming of macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [7][8]. - **Alumina**: The inventory accumulation rate remains relatively fast, and alumina prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement. The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the valuation has entered a low - level range, so the price is expected to remain volatile [9][13]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices have corrected. In the short term, positive macro factors combined with a stable fundamental situation are expected to keep aluminum prices in a sideways - up trend. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and demand maintains resilience, so the price center of aluminum is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Attention should be paid to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at high levels. In the short and medium terms, strong cost support combined with stable supply - demand or potential supply disruptions due to policies are expected to keep the price in a sideways - up trend [16][18]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and zinc prices are oscillating at high levels. In the short term, zinc prices may show high - level oscillations. In the medium to long term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, so zinc prices may still have room to decline [19]. - **Lead**: Due to delivery, social inventory has increased, and lead prices have declined in the short term. Considering factors such as supply disturbances, demand at the end of the peak season, and cost support, lead prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [20][22]. - **Nickel**: The current supply - demand situation is loose, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. The market sentiment still dominates the price, and the fundamental situation of the industry is weakening at the margin. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy and continue to monitor changes in LME nickel inventory and RKAB quotas [22][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. During the seasonal off - season, the fundamental situation exerts a certain downward pressure on prices, while cost support provides some upward impetus. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost fluctuations [24][25]. - **Tin**: Shanghai tin inventory has started to accumulate, and tin prices are oscillating and adjusting. Supply disruptions continue, and demand is expected to grow. The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, which will push up the price center of tin. Tin prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [25][26]. 3.2 Market Monitoring No specific content for analysis and summary is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 17, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index of CITIC Futures were 2254.19 (down 0.24%), 2555.84 (down 0.42%), and 2228.52 (up 0.56%) respectively. The non - ferrous metals index was 2477.82, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a 5 - day decline of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 1.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.34% [150][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][13] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas macro: This week, the core driver of major assets lies in the resonance between the "anticipatory front - running" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. Key inflation and employment data are still lacking, causing the market to shift from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the rebound of the US dollar and lowering US Treasury yields, and continuously strengthening the financial attributes of precious metals. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of expectation differences after front - running [5] - Domestic macro: In October, the overall economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the pulling effect of incremental policies on the fundamentals has not been reflected yet. In the context of the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak capital in - place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The two incremental policies implemented in October are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in October was 6.2%, and the financial data generally met expectations [5] - Asset view: The overall allocation idea in the fourth quarter has not changed much, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. It is recommended that investors make a balanced allocation among major assets in the fourth quarter. Long - positions should continue to be held, and attention should be paid to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals. If there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter, appropriate additional allocation can be made [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Market Price Changes - Various commodities have different price changes in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual fluctuations. For example, lithium carbonate has an 8.97% daily increase, 17.85% monthly increase, 30.66% quarterly increase, and 23.48% annual increase, showing relatively strong performance [2] 3.2 Macro Summary - Overseas: The core driver of major assets is the resonance between "anticipatory front - running" and looser liquidity expectations. Market expectations of interest rate cuts have increased, but there are risks of expectation differences [5] - Domestic: The economic data in October continued the weak and stable trend. Incremental policies are expected to take effect at the end of the fourth quarter, and financial data met expectations [5] - Asset allocation: It is recommended to make a balanced allocation in the fourth quarter, hold long - positions, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [5] 3.3 Sector and Variety Analysis 3.3.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [6] - Stock index options: The overall market turnover has slightly declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to be weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold/silver: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel: The actual supply and demand are both weak, but the futures market is firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Iron ore: Port inventories continue to accumulate, and the restocking demand needs to be released, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coke: The price increase over the weekend has been implemented, and the supply continues to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to recover continuously, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Silicon iron: The supply and demand are loose, and the price is under pressure, but the cost support is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Manganese silicon: The supply and demand situation remains loose, and there is no upward driving force for the price, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Glass: The supply and demand are still in excess, and inventory contradictions are accumulating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Soda ash: The demand for light soda ash is strong, and there is still cost support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Due to the tight US monetary liquidity, the copper price is in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation is still in excess, and the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Aluminum/zinc: The stock - futures linkage leads to an oscillatory upward trend of the aluminum price, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level, with short - term judgments of oscillatory rise and oscillation respectively [6] - Lead: Social inventories are slightly accumulating, and the lead price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Nickel: Market sentiment has improved, and the nickel price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Stainless steel: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures market is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Tin: The inventory of Shanghai tin continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Industrial silicon: The supply in the southwest has rapidly declined, and the silicon price is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] - Lithium carbonate: The restart expectation is repeated, and it is necessary to be vigilant against large price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [6] 3.3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: The expectation of oversupply is strengthened, and there are still geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - LPG: The refinery's external supply has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Asphalt: The situation between the US and Venezuela has cooled down, and the asphalt futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil: The fuel oil futures price is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil is weakly oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Methanol: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol oscillated lower this week, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Urea: Downstream buyers follow up at low prices, and the futures price is regarded as oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Ethylene glycol: The number of maintenance of existing plants has increased, and the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved. The price may fluctuate in a low - level range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PX: The expectation of aromatics for oil blending and BIS sentiment have fermented, and the efficiency and valuation remain firm, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - PTA: The news sentiment has significantly boosted, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the support below the processing fee has increased, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Short - fiber: There is some support from the raw material end, but the processing fee has room to be compressed under weak demand expectations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Bottle chips: There is raw material support, but the profit is in a stalemate due to the game between high inventory and weak demand, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Propylene: Downstream transactions have increased, and PL is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PP: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized, and attention should be paid to the change of maintenance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Plastic: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the support of the raw material end, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Styrene: The narrative of aromatics for oil blending has caused short - positions to reduce, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - PVC: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is oscillating, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Caustic soda: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures market is cautiously weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] 3.3.7 Agricultural Sector - Fats and oils: It may oscillate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand situation of Malaysian palm oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Protein meal: The US soybean price fell overnight, and the two types of meal reduced positions and made up for the decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9] - Corn/starch: They continue to oscillate at a high level, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Pigs: The supply pressure persists, and the pig price is running weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Natural rubber: It is waiting for a driving force and oscillating within a range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Synthetic rubber: The futures market has temporarily entered an oscillatory consolidation phase, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Cotton: There is a short - term risk of correction, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Sugar: The rebound momentum is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9] - Pulp: The futures price is oscillating at a high level, and the long - dominated pattern remains unchanged, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9] - Double - offset paper: Paper enterprises are holding up prices, and the spot price has stopped falling, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, polysilicon shows a wide - range oscillation pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, the price center of polysilicon is optimistic as backward production capacity is expected to be gradually cleared. One can consider laying out long positions on dips or obtaining premium income by selling out - of - the - money put options [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - From November 12th to 13th, the polysilicon futures rebounded, with the price rising from over 51,000 yuan/ton to over 54,000 yuan/ton. After the photovoltaic industry association refuted the "reserve short - selling" rumor, market confidence was restored, and the polysilicon price rebounded rapidly [3] Fundamental Situation - In the third quarter, the monthly supply of polysilicon rose to over 130,000 tons. In November, due to the dry season in the southwest and production cuts in Yunnan and Sichuan, the supply is expected to drop rapidly to below 120,000 tons. On the demand side, terminal installation is still under pressure, and the production schedules of cells and components have declined since October. The production of silicon rods has remained high but is expected to decline, and silicon wafer prices have loosened. However, several silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, with some wafer prices increasing [4] Summary and Strategy - Polysilicon is in a policy window period, and the price fluctuates greatly. Although the terminal demand is weak and the fundamental support is limited, there are still policy expectations and strong price - support intentions from upstream enterprises. One should pay attention to the price changes of polysilicon and silicon wafers and policy implementation. Be wary of market pull - backs if spot prices weaken or policies fall short of expectations [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The increase of 6413 thousand barrels in US commercial crude oil inventories in the week ending November 7, 2025, and the decrease of 849 thousand barrels per day in net crude oil exports were the main sources of inventory accumulation. After the release of the STEO report this week, the weekly production forecast was raised to a new high of 13.862 million barrels per day, the crude oil processing volume increased by 717 thousand barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate rebounded from a low level to 89.4%. Gasoline and diesel inventories continued to decline but at a slower pace, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products increased. However, the single - week data has limited indication [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 6413 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 5202 thousand barrels in the previous period [4][6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 346 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 30 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 798 thousand barrels, compared with 498 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 945 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 4729 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 637 thousand barrels, compared with a decrease of 643 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: increased by 1119 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 277 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: increased by 1226 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 84 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 2524 thousand barrels, compared with an increase of 633 thousand barrels in the previous period [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.862 million barrels per day, compared with 13.651 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 20.77 million barrels per day, compared with 20.356 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.028 million barrels per day, compared with 8.874 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.018 million barrels per day, compared with 3.71 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 5.222 million barrels per day, compared with 5.924 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US crude oil exports: 2.816 million barrels per day, compared with 4.367 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 15.973 million barrels per day, compared with 15.256 million barrels per day in the previous period [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 89.4%, compared with 86% in the previous period [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 13, gold and silver prices broke through strongly. Gold entered a trend - accelerating phase after breaking through $4200, and silver reached a new high. The rise was driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, data vacuum, and tight supply - demand patterns [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Key Information - President Trump signed a bill to end the longest government shutdown in US history. The House voted to restart food aid, pay federal employees, and restore the air traffic control system [2]. - 80% of surveyed economists believe the Fed will cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to support the weak labor market [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping met with King Felipe VI of Spain, expressing China's willingness to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with Spain [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: After breaking through $4200, gold entered a trend - strengthening phase, catalyzed by the reinforcement of interest rate cut expectations, data vacuum amplifying weak economic pricing, and the approaching inflection point of the balance sheet. Expectations of a December interest rate cut advanced, real interest rates declined, and the dollar's rebound was limited [3]. - **Silver**: The Shanghai silver futures main contract reached a new high, and London silver also rose. The rise was due to the return of interest rate cut trading, a clear path of balance - sheet expansion, and tight spot supply. High lease rates indicated a tight spot balance, and silver's relative elasticity to gold remained high [3]. Outlook - Attention should be paid to the release schedule of US employment and inflation data from September - October and the policy inclination of Fed officials' speeches. If the December interest rate cut path is confirmed and there are further balance - sheet expansion signals, precious metals will remain in an upward - trending macro window. The price ranges to watch are [4150 - 4320] dollars per ounce for London gold and [52 - 55] dollars per ounce for London silver [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: The commodity index was 2269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2223.17, down 0.01% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On November 13, 2025, the precious metals index was 3445.50, with a daily increase of 2.43%, a 5 - day increase of 5.93%, a 1 - month increase of 1.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 55.73% [46]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index was 1352.02, up 0.54% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing an increasingly imbalanced supply - demand situation, with supply growing and demand growth being mediocre compared to historical standards. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply in 2026, and the price of crude oil will be volatile in the short - term [2][8]. - The cancellation of India's domestic certification for 14 chemical imports will bring direct incremental exports for some chemicals, but the exact increase needs further exploration. A refinery accident in South China will lead to a reduction in the supply of aromatics, olefins, and refined oil [3]. - Most energy and chemical products are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical situations, and policy changes [3][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Crude Oil - **Market News**: Trump lifted restrictions on oil exploration in the Alaska National Petroleum Reserve. EIA data showed that the US continued to accumulate crude oil inventories last week, and the IEA月报 predicted an increase in the oversupply of global oil in 2026 [8]. - **Main Logic**: The oversupply situation is expected to intensify in 2026. Although the refined oil inventory pressure has eased and the crack spread is strong, providing phased support for the demand side, the supply pressure remains difficult to refute. If Russian oil supply does not decrease, the oil price may return to the oversupply pattern [8]. 3.2 Situation of Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Asphalt**: Shandong's spot prices have stabilized, and the futures price is volatile. The supply tension has been relieved, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: News of the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict drove the futures price down. The supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease, but the demand is still weak [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakening of refined oil led to a decline in low - sulfur fuel oil. It is facing supply increase and demand decline, and its valuation is low, following the trend of crude oil [13]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. It is in a volatile and consolidating state [30]. - **Urea**: Downstream purchases on dips, and the futures price is volatile. It is under high - inventory pressure and coal - cost support [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although there are more device disturbances and marginal improvement in supply - demand, the oversupply pattern cannot be reversed, and the price will remain in a low - level range [22][24]. - **PX**: India's cancellation of BIS and the speculation of the US - Asia aromatics arbitrage window drove PX to strengthen against cost. It is expected to be volatile and warm in the short - term [16]. - **PTA**: India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial to overseas export expectations. The price will follow the cost and be volatile and warm in the short - term [17][18]. - **Short - fiber**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification has limited impact on short - fiber, and the profit is expected to be compressed under passive following [26][27]. - **Bottle - chip**: The price fluctuation has slightly increased, and the trading atmosphere has recovered. It follows the trend of upstream raw materials [28]. - **Propylene**: Downstream trading volume has increased, and PL is volatile [36]. - **PP**: After continuous decline, it has slightly stabilized. Attention should be paid to the change in maintenance [35]. - **Plastic**: The chemical sector has slightly stabilized, and plastic follows the trend [34]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of India's BIS certification may boost sentiment, but the actual export impact is limited. PVC is weakly stable [37]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is in a volatile state [38]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various energy and chemical products have different degrees of change, which reflects the market's expectations for future prices [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different products also show different trends, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures markets [41]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different energy and chemical products have changed, which is affected by factors such as supply - demand and cost [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the actual supply and demand of new energy metals are favorable. Lithium carbonate is leading the rise, and short - long opportunities for lithium carbonate are worth attention. In the long term, the supply - side contraction expectation of silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The long - term supply and demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **View**: The expectation of organic silicon production cuts suppresses the upward movement of silicon prices. The medium - term outlook is for prices to remain volatile [7]. - **Analysis of Information**: As of October 2025, domestic monthly industrial silicon production was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% month - on - month increase and a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to October, cumulative production was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% year - on - year decrease. In September, industrial silicon exports were 70,233 tons, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease and a 7.7% year - on - year increase. From January to September 2025, cumulative exports were 561,000 tons, a 2.3% year - on - year increase. The latest domestic inventory was 461,400 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase. Organic silicon monomer plants plan to cut production by 30% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the dry season in the southwest has led to a rapid decline in the number of open furnaces, and most southwest silicon plants will enter shutdown and maintenance. Northwest supply has shown small fluctuations with no obvious increase. On the demand side, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November. If the organic silicon production cuts are implemented, demand will also fall. The increase in aluminum alloy demand is limited. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the futures market [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **View**: Silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, and polysilicon prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The medium - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [8]. - **Analysis of Information**: The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous value. From January to September 2025, domestic new photovoltaic installations were 240.27GW, a 49.35% year - on - year increase [8]. - **Main Logic**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has refuted false rumors, and silicon wafer enterprises have jointly supported prices, which has stopped the decline of polysilicon prices. From August to October, polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, but it will contract in November due to the dry season. On the demand side, photovoltaic installations have declined since June, and downstream demand may weaken in November. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply and demand of polysilicon, but production will decrease during the dry season, and policy expectations remain, so prices are expected to remain in wide - range volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, and lithium prices are oscillating at high levels. The short - term outlook is for prices to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Analysis of Information**: On November 13, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.46% to 87,840 yuan/ton, and the total open interest increased by 33,593 lots to 1,038,019 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to 84,350 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 900 yuan/ton to 82,000 yuan/ton. Australian lithium miner Liontown will conduct its first auction of 10,000 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate on November 19, 2025 [11]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is expected to continue to decline from November to December. However, supply expectations are unstable, which may cause large price fluctuations. SMM monthly production has continued to increase significantly, but there is a shortage of ore, which restricts lithium salt supply. Apparent demand is currently good, and production schedules from November to December are expected to remain strong. Social inventory is continuing to decline, and warehouse receipts have recently stabilized. In the medium - to - short - term, the resumption of production at Jiuxiawo is the key factor affecting the balance sheet. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips [12]. 3.2 Market Monitoring 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No detailed content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No detailed content provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 13, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2,269.39, up 0.47%; the commodity 20 index was 2,577.33, up 0.54%; the industrial products index was 2,223.17, down 0.01%; the PPI commodity index was 1,352.02, up 0.54%. The new energy commodity index was 433.60, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 3.31%, a 1 - month increase of 7.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.14% [54][55].