1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas macro: Market bets on Fed rate cuts decreased in the early part of the week, but the July non - farm payrolls data triggered concerns about US employment and economic downturn, increasing expectations of Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, and August non - farm payrolls [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable economic progress in the first half of the year, the tone of the July Politburo meeting focused on using existing policies more effectively, with limited incremental policies. The July composite PMI remained above the critical point, and the progress of US negotiations with China, Mexico and other economies should be monitored [5]. - Asset views: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: Market bets on Fed rate cuts fell in the first half of the week due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and rising PCE in June. However, the July non - farm payrolls data was disappointing, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rising unemployment rate under a declining labor participation rate, increasing expectations of US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts [5]. - Domestic: The July Politburo meeting emphasized using existing policies effectively, with limited new policies. The July composite PMI was above the critical point, and attention should be paid to US economic negotiations [5]. - Asset: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, with stronger policy - driven logic in the second half of the year and higher probability of incremental policies in Q4. Overseas, concerns about US economic slowdown boost gold. The long - term weak US dollar trend continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched [5]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: After event settlement, capital congestion eases. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [6]. - Stock index options: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure, and it is expected to move sideways [6]. - Treasury bond futures: The market continues to digest Politburo meeting information. It is expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: With the US fundamentals weakening and the restart of the rate - cut cycle logic, precious metals are expected to rise in a volatile manner, influenced by Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to move sideways, affected by tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: With strong anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, the futures market is firm. It is expected to move sideways, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [6]. - Iron ore: With a slight decrease in small - sample hot - metal production, the price moves sideways, affected by factors such as overseas mine production, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policies [6]. - Other products (coke, etc.): All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as production, cost, and macro - sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Affected by disappointing US non - farm payrolls data, the price is under pressure and expected to decline in a volatile manner, influenced by supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery [6]. - Other metals: Most are expected to move sideways, affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - risks [6]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: With geopolitical expectations fluctuating, it is expected to move sideways, affected by OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - Other chemical products: All are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policies [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Are expected to move sideways, affected by factors such as weather, supply, demand, and policies [9]. - Logs: Are expected to decline in a volatile manner, affected by shipment and delivery volumes [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched while being vigilant against volatility jumps [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the early part of the week, the market's bets on Fed rate cuts decreased due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and an increase in June PCE. However, the non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rise in the unemployment rate under the backdrop of a three - month decline in the labor participation rate, increasing concerns about US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, August non - farm payrolls, and the selection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and Fed leadership changes [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The comprehensive PMI in July was still above the critical point. The progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico should be monitored [5]. - **Asset Views**: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern persists, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on while being cautious of volatility jumps [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After events are settled, the crowding of funds is released. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With upward - trending volatility, the short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Concerns include unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: As the US fundamentals weaken and the market returns to the logic of restarting the rate - cut cycle, precious metals are oscillating strongly. Concerns include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. Concerns include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: With disruptions in coking coal supply, the futures price shows a strong performance. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With a healthy fundamental situation, the price is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is no expectation of price increases in the near future. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the futures price has risen. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sentiment in the black chain is positive, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include cost prices and foreign quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak, and prices in Hubei are continuously decreasing. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and freight rates have declined. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, putting pressure on the copper price. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, less - than - expected recovery in domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the alumina price is under oscillatory pressure. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is oscillating. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Zinc**: With the rebound of black - series prices, the zinc price has slightly recovered. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons, and the nickel price is weakly oscillatory. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed up. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Tin**: The market atmosphere has improved, and the tin price has slightly rebounded. Concerns include the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost end dominates the rhythm. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Asphalt**: The pressure on the spot market has increased, and the high - valued asphalt price has finally declined. Concerns include unexpected demand. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: The rebound of the coal end has had some impact, and methanol is oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea will oscillate in the short term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and the expectation in August has shifted to inventory accumulation. Concerns include the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and device recovery. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. Concerns include the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and the processing fee is still under pressure. Concerns include the planned shutdown of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for short - fiber. Concerns include the procurement rhythm and start - up of downstream yarn mills. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production cut scale in August will continue to exceed 20%, and the support below the processing fee has increased. Concerns include the future start - up of bottle chips. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PP**: The support from oil and coal still shows differences, and PP is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Plastic**: There is a slight impact from the coal end, and plastic is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is oscillating downward. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market is emerging, and caustic soda is running weakly. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. 3.4 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, soybean oil was strong, and there is a strong expectation of a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Protein Meal**: During the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade disputes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of production cuts has caused fluctuations, and the futures price has rebounded. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Rubber**: Positive macro factors have driven up the rubber price. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Tight raw material supply supports the futures price. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend of the futures price remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Cotton**: The impact of macro factors has weakened, and cotton price trading has returned to fundamentals. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Sugar**: The marginal supply pressure has increased, and the sugar price is under downward pressure. Concerns include imports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Log**: The fundamentals have changed little, and it should be treated within a range. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The equity market continues to rise, with a positive attitude towards the subsequent market in August. One can continue to hold IM long - positions in stock index futures. In stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding covered positions and guard against small - cap corrections. For treasury bond futures, the market is still digesting the Politburo meeting news, and the short - end may perform better in the future, with a relatively high odds of steepening the yield curve in the medium term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The small - cap style is strong. The basis, spreads, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different changes. The market shows that small - caps are stronger than large - caps, with multiple industry themes rising. Several market signals are worthy of attention, and the short - term market trend can be more positive. It is recommended to hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - The strategy is to use covered positions while guarding against small - and medium - cap corrections. The underlying market rose across the board, and the option market liquidity is relatively stable. The sentiment indicators show that the seller has a strong expectation of an upward trend, and there is some caution towards small - and medium - caps. Volatility fluctuates, and it is recommended to continue the covered position strategy and reduce the directional exposure on the small - cap side in the short term [8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market is continuing to digest the Politburo meeting information. The treasury bond futures rose, and the long - end of the treasury bond cash bonds performed better than the short - end. The short - term bond market sentiment has recovered, but in the medium term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States, China, and Europe in the current week are presented, including indicators such as the US factory orders, ISM non - manufacturing PMI, China's trade balance, and the UK central bank benchmark interest rate [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - In transportation, relevant departments have issued a plan to innovate the investment and financing model for rural roads. In the non - banking financial sector, Shanghai has introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of commercial health insurance. In the industrial Internet field, Hubei has made progress in the digital transformation of industrial enterprises [12][13] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are to be monitored, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given content [14][18][30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [1][5][9] Core Viewpoints - Cost stabilization, recovery, and policy expectations support the high - level consolidation of new energy metals. The supply - side contraction and cost increase expectations in the short - to - medium - term support the prices, but the expected output increase limits the upward space. For Jiangxi lithium mines, before official news on production cuts, one can cautiously bet on short - term potential upward opportunities for lithium through options. Industrial silicon and polysilicon face high production capacity and output but weak demand, and their price increases are slowing down [1] - The market sentiment of industrial silicon is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating; the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations; the direction of the lithium carbonate market is unclear, and the price is oscillating [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is also oscillating [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of August 6, the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory increased slightly, with the factory inventory rising by 0.4% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase but a 30.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, the cumulative output was 2.21 million tons, a 20.0% year - on - year decrease. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% year - on - year decrease. In June, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 14.36GW, a 38.45% year - on - year decrease; from January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107.07% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits of some industrial silicon contracts [5] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon is continuously recovering, and the supply pressure may further increase in August. The demand has improved month - on - month, but the inventory and warehouse receipts may continue to accumulate. The silicon price is currently affected by macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations and is expected to oscillate in the short term. If large factories resume production intensively, it may further suppress the price [6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the polysilicon price has wide - range fluctuations. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6] - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 70. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% month - on - month increase but a 39.67% year - on - year decrease; from January to June 2025, the cumulative export was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% year - on - year decrease. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% month - on - month increase; from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% year - on - year decrease. From January to June 2025, the domestic photovoltaic new - installed capacity was 212.21GW, a 107% year - on - year increase. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted relevant contract parameters [6][7] - **Main Logic**: Macro - sentiment and coal price fluctuations cause wide - range price fluctuations. The supply is expected to increase in the medium - to - long - term, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has a significant impact on the price, and if the policy expectations fade, the price may reverse [8][9] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On August 6, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.62%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 760 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 67,800 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 580 tons [9] - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment has cooled, but supply uncertainties remain. The fundamentals have improved slightly, with production decreasing slightly and demand being stable. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipt inventory is in line with expectations. The domestic supply - demand is generally balanced in the third quarter, but high prices may stimulate supply. The price may rise if market sentiment recovers, and it will be affected by the outcome of mine shutdowns [10] 行情监测 - The report does not provide specific content for this part [11][17][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in an "oscillating" state, which implies a neutral stance on the overall energy and chemical industry in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is facing different external factors with inconsistent directions of contradictions, presenting an oscillating pattern. Coal prices are rising, increasing the cost of coal - based chemicals, while crude oil has been falling for four days, reducing the cost of oil - based chemicals. The industry itself and the macro - end also have different trends. It is advisable for investors to take a light - position in the hedging of oil - based and coal - based chemicals [2]. - The overall chemical industry will continue to oscillate and consolidate, and the trend is still unclear. The short - term trends of various chemical products are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply and demand changes, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Although the US and Russia's statements on promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are optimistic, the expectation of the US to impose additional secondary sanctions on Russia is still hard to disprove. EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels in the week of August 1, and the net import of crude oil decreased by 794,000 barrels per day. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased from 95.4% to 96.9%. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates after reaching the support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery's operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [7]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The tax on fuel oil imports in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures price oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened following crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has increased, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate following crude oil [9]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price is running strongly, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On August 6, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the coal end in the short term. The northwest methanol market continued to be strong, and the port inventory increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: After the export information is confirmed, the futures price has reached the top and is about to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment was boosted by the high - price Indian tender and export news on August 5 and 6, but the downstream follow - up was cautious, and the actual trading volume was average. After the export information was basically confirmed, the market's positive sentiment faded. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate and consolidate, and it is likely to decline weakly. Pay attention to whether there are more changes in the Indian tender before August 8 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The support from coal prices is increasing, and the expectation of inventory accumulation is narrowing. - **Main Logic**: Supported by coal prices and the improvement of market sentiment, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level. Overseas plant shutdowns have reduced the expected import volume in August, and the inventory accumulation amplitude has slightly narrowed. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [14][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The decline of PX is slowing down as the cost stops falling and the commodity sentiment strengthens. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the macro - atmosphere has continued to strengthen, pushing up the PX price. In terms of supply and demand, the change in PX is limited. Due to the low processing fee of PTA, some PTA plants have reduced their production, but the demand reduction is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [10]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Under low processing fees, unexpected maintenance has increased, and the commodity sentiment has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has stopped falling, and the PTA futures price has strengthened following the cost. The basis has continued to weaken, and the spot processing fee has been continuously compressed. Some mainstream PTA manufacturers have reduced their production, and the downstream polyester filament sales have increased, but the supply - demand drive is still weak. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [10]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The futures market has boosted the spot market atmosphere, and the sales volume has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Supported by the polymerization cost, the short - fiber price has been boosted, and the sales volume has slightly improved, but the terminal orders are average. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee will be weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long - term. The absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The polyester bottle - chip price is supported after the polymerization cost stops falling. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost has stopped falling and rebounded slightly, supporting the polyester bottle - chip price. The bottle - chip processing fee has been slightly repaired, but the subsequent profit expansion space is limited. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chip processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate has slightly decreased, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has slightly boosted in the short term, while the oil price has oscillated and declined. The supply side of PP is still in an incremental state, and the demand side is weak. The downstream plastic weaving and injection molding operating rates are lower than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23][24]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It mainly follows the fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream factories follow up as needed. The short - term disk follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end has provided some support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [24]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price has oscillated and weakened in the short term, while the macro - end has slightly improved, and the coal end has some positive news. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will oscillate in the short term [22]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined after the Politburo meeting, but there is still some support due to the military parade expectation. The oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated investments in pure benzene upstream and downstream plants, which have a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply of pure benzene will increase, but with new downstream production, the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction. The import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory may be reduced in stages, slightly boosting the price [11][12][13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has been continuously accumulating, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term replenishment of styrene downstream has decreased, and the support has weakened. The supply of styrene itself has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The new home appliance production schedule data is average, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost of pure benzene is stable or slightly strong, but the driving force for styrene is limited. Overall, the styrene price may oscillate and decline slightly [13][14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in cost. The upstream production will increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the export has improved. - **Outlook**: The futures price will oscillate under the situation of strong expectation and weak reality [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is falling rapidly, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for caustic soda from alumina production is increasing marginally, but there is no significant change in non - aluminum production. The inventory of caustic soda in the downstream is not high, and the 50% caustic soda inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The futures price is under downward pressure, and pay attention to whether upstream producers will reduce production due to low profits, the performance of downstream peak seasons, and policy expectations [28][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market risk - preference recovery suppresses gold prices, but gold's long - term bullish trend remains unchanged, with tariff - induced slowdown in the US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle providing medium - term drivers, and the contraction of the US dollar credit building the long - term bullish foundation [1][6] - The trading of short - term resilience of the US economy may end, and the market will return to the logic of weakening US fundamentals and restart of the interest - rate cut cycle, with positive sentiment in the gold market [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - US President Trump said the US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [2] - Trump may meet with Russian President Putin next week, and the US plans to implement secondary sanctions on Friday to pressure Russia to end the Ukraine war [2] - Some Fed policymakers are increasingly worried about the cooling of the US job market and economic slowdown, though they are still uncertain about inflation [2] 3.2 Price Logic - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday. Despite weak US economic data, the recovery of market risk - preference suppressed the safe - haven demand for gold. However, trade uncertainties and interest - rate cut expectations provide support [3] - Investors still bet that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, with an expected cumulative cut of over 50 basis points this year [3] - Trump's tariff announcements on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals have intensified global trade tensions, which may limit the decline of gold prices [3] - The negative impact of TACO trading on gold has been exhausted, and the emotional impact of tariffs will gradually weaken, becoming a slow - variable [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly focus for London gold spot is [3300, 3500], and for London silver spot is [36, 40] [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On August 6, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodities gained ground, with coking coal, silicon metal, and poly-silicon leading the gains [2][4][12][14] - The top three gainers are coking coal, ferrosilicon, and silicon metal, while the top three decliners are rapeseed, sodium hydroxide, and crude oil [12][13][14] - The State Council General Office issued opinions to gradually promote free preschool education, and South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists starting from September 29 [38] - As of August 5, the A - share margin trading balance returned to 2 trillion yuan, and the effective client scale of the futures market exceeded 2.6 million, hitting a record high [39][40] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 6, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodities gained ground. Coking coal rose 6.5% with open interest up 14.7% month - on - month; ferrosilicon rose 4.3% with open interest up 0.4% month - on - month; silicon metal rose 3.6% with open interest down 0.0% month - on - month. The top three decliners are rapeseed, sodium hydroxide, and crude oil [12][14] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On August 6, coking coal increased by 6.5% to 1221 yuan/ton. Supply has not fully recovered, short - term fundamentals provide support, and the futures market is expected to remain range - bound. Some Inner Mongolia coal mines resumed production, while some Shanxi coal mines suspended production. Mongolian coal import through Ganqimaodu Port remained above 1,000 trucks. Demand is rigid, but downstream wait - and - see sentiment increased [18][19][20] 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On August 6, poly - silicon increased by 3.2% to 51345 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy boosted the price, but there is a risk of reverse fluctuations if policy expectations fade. Supply is expected to rise with the arrival of the high - water season, and demand may weaken considering the decline in photovoltaic installations in the second half of the year [25][27][28] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Crude Oil - On August 6, crude oil decreased by 0.6% to 505.9 yuan/barrel. It is in a short - term fluctuating state. Attention should be paid to the implementation of U.S. sanctions against Russia. Overnight oil prices closed lower, geopolitical factors are mixed, inventories show certain trends, and refinery high -开工 sustainability is limited [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The State Council General Office issued "Opinions on Gradually Promoting Free Preschool Education", waiving childcare and education fees for children in the last year of preschool education in public kindergartens from the 2025 autumn semester. South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists starting from September 29 [38] 2.2 Industry News - As of August 5, the A - share margin trading balance reached 2 trillion yuan. In the first half of 2025, the futures market added 410,000 new clients, and as of the end of June 2025, the total number of effective clients climbed to 2.61 million, a record high [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6]. Report's Core View - Yesterday, the news of coal mine production restrictions fermented again, driving up the futures prices. The fundamentals of the black industry have not changed significantly, and the inventory pressure at each link is not high. Before the important event, the production restriction time is approaching, and steel prices have strong support. Coal and coke supplies have not fully recovered, and inventories are being depleted, making prices susceptible to positive news. There may also be continuous influence from macro - positive news. Before the spot pressure appears, prices have room for further rebound. The futures prices have high volatility, and capital behavior dominates the market. It is recommended to wait and avoid risks, and focus on policy implementation and terminal demand [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased as expected. The profitability rate of steel enterprises increased again, but steel production in some areas decreased due to rainfall, though it remained high year - on - year. Due to low arrivals and high demand, iron ore inventories at 45 ports, in port congestion, and at factories decreased. After the macro - sentiment cooled, iron ore prices dropped slightly, and it is expected to oscillate in the future [2]. Carbon Element - The overall supply is temporarily stable. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week exceeded 1,200 vehicles, reaching a high for the year, and imports remained high. Coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Affected by the recent decline in futures prices, the wait - and - see sentiment of downstream and traders increased, and the spot market sentiment cooled. However, upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports [2]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The manganese ore market has more wait - and - see sentiment, but traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and port ore prices remain firm. Steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high, so the downstream demand for manganese silicon is still resilient. However, as manufacturers' profitability improves, the复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. Currently, the contradictions in the spot fundamentals are limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. The downstream steel - making demand is still resilient, and the current supply - demand relationship is healthy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3]. Glass - In the off - season, glass demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased month - on - month, and the inventory days of original glass increased month - on - month, indicating speculative purchases by downstream. After the futures prices dropped, the spot market sentiment cooled, middle - stream sales increased, and upstream production and sales declined significantly. On the supply side, two production lines are yet to produce glass, and one line has been cold - repaired, with the overall daily melting expected to remain stable. Upstream inventories have decreased slightly, and there are no prominent contradictions, but market sentiment fluctuates a lot. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, but it may recur. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term both in futures and spot [3][6]. Soda Ash - The oversupply situation of soda ash has not changed. After this round of negative feedback was triggered, prices dropped rapidly in the short term and are at a discount to the spot. It is expected to oscillate in the future. In the long run, the price center will decline, promoting capacity reduction [6]. Specific Products - **Steel**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the steel and coal industries remains high. Driven by cost, the futures prices are firm. Spot steel sales are average. Last week, some steel mills had short - term maintenance and iron - water transfer, resulting in a decrease in rebar production and an increase in hot - rolled coil production. In the off - season, affected by typhoons, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, and inventories increased slightly; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased, and inventories continued to accumulate. The supply - demand of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products fluctuated little, and the inventory of the five major steel products increased. Currently, steel inventories are low, and there are continuous production - restriction news before the parade. The fundamentals may improve, and with strong cost support, the futures prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Port trading volume increased. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly after the typhoon. The small - sample steel enterprise's iron - water production decreased slightly, and the daily consumption of imported sinter increased, remaining high year - on - year. The possibility of short - term production reduction due to profit reasons is small. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased compared to last week. The demand for iron ore is high, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion. The fundamental negative driving factors are limited, and prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The average price of crushed scrap in East China increased slightly. The output of rebar decreased slightly, inventories increased, and the apparent demand decreased, in line with off - season characteristics. In terms of supply, the market sentiment is optimistic this week, and the arrival volume of scrap steel has been decreasing. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of electric furnaces was high in some areas due to high profits in the early stage. Although the iron - water production of blast furnaces decreased, the price difference between iron and scrap narrowed, increasing the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long and short - process production increased significantly. This week, the arrival volume increased significantly, and factory inventories increased slightly, with the available inventory days remaining slightly below normal. The supply and demand of scrap steel are both strong, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Prices are expected to follow the finished steel [9]. - **Coke**: Futures prices followed coking coal and oscillated strongly. On the spot side, the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port increased. After the fifth round of price increases was fully implemented, the profitability of coke enterprises improved, and production started to pick up, with coke production remaining stable. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing, and the iron - water production remains high. Upstream coke enterprises have smooth sales, and inventories are continuously decreasing. Middle - stream futures and spot traders are gradually releasing supplies, and the arrival of coke at downstream steel mills has improved. Currently, the supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and prices still have short - term support. The fundamentals of coke are healthy. In the short term, with high iron - water production, its own driving force is weak, and prices are expected to follow coking coal and oscillate [10][11]. - **Coking Coal**: On the futures side, due to continuous news of over - production inspections at coal mines, the supply recovery is slow, and market sentiment has been boosted, with prices trending strongly. On the spot side, prices remained stable. On the supply side, the output of some coal mines is limited due to underground factors, and some coal mines have reduced their production in the second half of the year due to over - production inspections. The overall supply is slowly recovering. On the import side, the import of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles. On the demand side, coke production is stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. After the previous round of concentrated purchases, downstream enterprises are now purchasing on - demand. Upstream coal mines still have many pre - sold orders and are reducing inventories. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Attention should be paid to regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. Affected by over - production inspections, the supply recovery of coking coal is expected to be slow. With poor supply expectations, market sentiment has improved, and prices are expected to be prone to rising and difficult to fall in the short term [11]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Driven by the strong coking coal futures prices, the central price of manganese silicon futures increased yesterday. On the spot side, manufacturers are more willing to hold prices, and spot prices have been continuously adjusted upwards. On the cost side, coke prices have been continuously increasing, strengthening the cost support for manganese silicon. The futures prices of manganese silicon are rising, and the overseas quotes are increasing, making manganese ore quotes firmer. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and the output of finished steel remains high. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. However, as the industry's profitability improves, the manufacturers'复产 process continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. Currently, the market fundamentals have limited contradictions, and in the short term, manganese silicon prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the difficulty of market inventory depletion will increase, and the upside potential of prices is not optimistic [14]. - **Silicon Iron**: Yesterday, the coking coal futures prices continued to be strong, and the market's expectation of the "anti - involution" policy increased, driving up the silicon iron futures prices. On the spot side, the prices of semi - coke and settlement electricity prices have increased significantly, and with the strong futures prices, spot prices have also increased. On the supply side, as the industry's profitability improves, manufacturers' enthusiasm for复产 increases, and the output of silicon iron is expected to increase rapidly. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy related to specific production - restriction requirements. On the demand side, steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement volume in August increased compared to last month. In the magnesium market, due to tight supplies, magnesium manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices, but the market trading atmosphere has cooled, and the game between upstream and downstream continues. Currently, the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and in the short term, prices are expected to follow the sector. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap may be filled, and the upside potential of prices should be viewed with caution. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [15].

中信期货有限公司 在途库存大幅走低 ──Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 2025-08-04 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 6月以来全球陆上原油库存相对维稳，但7月18日至8月4日期间陆地与海上库存大幅走低，主要因在途船货减少，关注后期回溯调整情况。分 区域来看，近一周中国、印度库存走低,欧洲、俄罗斯、中东库存回升。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2025 2022 - 2021 - 2023 千桶 250000 3700000 200000 3600000 150000 3500000 100000 3400000 3300000 50000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 3: 全球原油浮仓 2024 - 2023 2022 - - 2021 ~~/ 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第1周 图表 2: ...