Summary of CMOC 2026 Business Outlook Call Company Overview - **Company**: CMOC (China Molybdenum Co., Ltd.) - **Stock Ticker**: 3993.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$481,372 million (US$61,744 million) [7] Key Industry Insights Copper and Cobalt Production - **Copper Output**: - Achieved 741,000 tons (kt) in 2025, exceeding early guidance due to stable power supply in DRC for TFM and KFM projects, and technology upgrades for TFM [1][3] - Implied copper output for Q4 2025 was 198kt, representing a 4% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase [1][3] - Output guidance for 2026 is set at 760-820kt [1][3] - **Cobalt Output**: - Recorded 25.8 tons (t) in Q4 2025, a decrease of 16% QoQ [1][3] - Output guidance for 2026 is projected at 100-120kt [1][3] Financial Performance - **Net Profit Forecast**: - Expected net profit for 2025 is between RMB 20.0 billion and RMB 20.8 billion, marking an increase of 47.8%-53.7% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Implied net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated at RMB 5.72-6.52 billion, reflecting a YoY increase of 9%-24% and a QoQ increase of 2%-16% [2] Strategic Developments Acquisition Plans - CMOC anticipates completing the acquisition of gold assets in Brazil from Equinox Gold in Q1 2026, with full-year output guidance for these assets estimated at 6-8t [4] Expansion Projects - **KFM Phase 2 Project**: Expected to achieve an average output of 100kt per annum during its mine life, operational by 2027 [6] - **TFM Expansion**: Feasibility study is being finalized, with potential to meet the lower limit of copper output guidance in 2028 (0.8-1.0 million tons) depending on the scale and timing of the expansion [6] Regulatory and Market Considerations Cobalt Quota Policy - CMOC's cobalt quota for KFM and TFM is set at 6.5kt for Q4 2025 and 312kt for 2026. Cobalt exports have not fully resumed, limiting contributions to Q1 2026 profits due to a ~3-month transportation period [5] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Slowing grid investment in China [10][12] - Worse-than-expected real estate investment in China, potentially reducing copper demand and prices [10][12] - Acceleration of global mine supply impacting market dynamics [10][12] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: - DCF valuation yields a target price of HK$20.60, with an expected share price return of -8.4% and a dividend yield of 1.8% [7][9] - **Total Expected Return**: -6.7% [7] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from CMOC's 2026 Business Outlook Call, highlighting production forecasts, financial performance, strategic initiatives, and associated risks within the mining sector.

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights the increasing importance of strategic metals (copper, aluminum, cobalt, nickel, tin, antimony, tungsten, rare earths) due to supply disruptions and the limitations in production capacity in China and abroad [1][2]. Group 1: Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals worth AUD 1.2 billion, with AUD 185 million allocated for necessary mineral reserves, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [2] - The European Commission approved a resource revival action plan to raise EUR 3 billion for supply chain strategies, establishing a platform to support critical material reserves [2] - The U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) plans to procure USD 500 million in cobalt, USD 245 million in antimony, USD 100 million in tantalum, and USD 45 million in scandium [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Strategic Metals - The focus on strategic metal storage in the U.S. and Australia presents significant investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo and lithium from South America [3] - The rapid development of AI and energy transition is expected to drive demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, although supply constraints exist for these metals [4] - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are facing tightening supply, with production declines attributed to lower resource grades and regulatory controls [5] Group 3: Supply Concentration and Constraints - Copper, lithium, cobalt, and nickel supply is highly concentrated in South America, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, with Chile and Peru accounting for 35% of global copper production and the Democratic Republic of Congo producing 76% of global cobalt [4] - The rapid growth of AI is expected to significantly increase demand for copper, aluminum, and tin, but supply for these metals is constrained [4] - Tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are critical for military applications, but their production has decreased due to resource management practices and regulatory measures [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For copper, recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining [5] - For aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum is recommended, with China Aluminum as a focus [5] - For cobalt and nickel, Huayou Cobalt is recommended, with attention to Liqin Resources and Shengtun Mining [5] - For tungsten, focus on China Tungsten High-tech [5] - For tin, Xiyang Tin Industry is recommended, with interest in Xingye Silver Tin [5] - For antimony, Huaxi Nonferrous is highlighted, and for rare earths, Northern Rare Earth is recommended with a focus on China Rare Earth [5]

Core Insights - Molybdenum is a critical transition metal with high melting point and strength, categorized into four main forms: pure molybdenum, molybdenum alloys, molybdenum compounds, and molybdenum products [1][2][3] - The global molybdenum market is characterized by a long-term tight balance, with a projected demand gap of 0.39 million tons in 2024, which may expand in the future [1][7] - China holds a significant advantage in molybdenum reserves, becoming the core support for global molybdenum industry development, with production and consumption both leading globally [1][9] Industry Overview - The molybdenum industry is divided into three main segments: upstream (exploration and mining), midstream (smelting and processing), and downstream (deep processing and end applications) [5][6] - Upstream is dominated by major enterprises that control core resources, while midstream is characterized by high industry concentration but relies on imported high-end technologies [5][6] - Downstream applications are primarily in the steel industry, with rapid growth in emerging fields such as renewable energy and aerospace [1][6] Policy and Strategic Importance - Recent policies from the Chinese government aim to regulate resource management and promote industry upgrades, including export controls and support for green mining technologies [6][7] - Molybdenum is classified as a strategic mineral due to its scarcity and concentrated global distribution, with China, the US, and Peru being the top three countries in terms of reserves [6][7] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global molybdenum production is expected to remain between 262,100 tons and 290,200 tons from 2020 to 2024, with consumption fluctuating between 247,600 tons and 294,100 tons [7][8] - In 2024, China's molybdenum production is projected to reach 133,700 tons, with consumption also on the rise, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6.78% from 2020 to 2024 [10][11] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese molybdenum industry is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with leading companies like Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co., Ltd. and Luoyang Molybdenum Co., Ltd. controlling approximately 70% of the market share [11][12] - The competition is intensifying as smaller firms focus on niche markets, while larger firms leverage their resources and technology to maintain a competitive edge [11][12] Future Development Trends - The industry is expected to shift towards green and intelligent resource development, with a focus on efficient utilization of low-grade and associated molybdenum ores [12][13] - There will be a transition from traditional raw material output to high-end manufacturing, with an emphasis on domestic production of high-purity molybdenum products and specialized alloys [12][13] - Demand for molybdenum is anticipated to grow in both traditional sectors and emerging fields, with strategic support from policies aimed at enhancing the high-potential areas of the industry [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's annual profit is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan for the first time, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8% to 53.71% [2][3] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with a projected growth of 64.68 million to 72.68 million yuan compared to the previous year, marking a 47.8% to 53.71% increase [3] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains is expected to be between 20.4 billion and 21.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55.5% to 61.6% [3] - For Q4 2025, the net profit is estimated to be between 5.72 billion and 6.52 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.76% to 23.98% [3] Revenue Trends - From 2019 to 2024, Luoyang Molybdenum's revenue has shown consistent growth, with figures of 68.68 billion, 113 billion, 173.9 billion, 173 billion, 186.3 billion, and 213 billion yuan respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders has also increased steadily over the years, reaching 13.53 billion yuan in 2024, with projections for 2025 indicating a sixth consecutive year of growth [4] Product Performance - The company reported a production volume of 543,400 tons of copper in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.14%, with sales volume reaching 520,300 tons, up 10.56% [5] - Other products such as cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, niobium, and phosphate also showed positive trends in gross margins, with significant year-on-year increases [5] Strategic Expansion - Luoyang Molybdenum has been actively expanding its resource portfolio, including the acquisition of a 100% stake in the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador for approximately 580 million Canadian dollars, expected to produce 11.5 tons of gold annually starting in 2028 [6] - The company also announced a deal to acquire 100% interests in several gold mines in Canada for 1.015 billion USD, projected to increase annual gold production by 8 tons [7] Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum's cash reserves reached 32.47 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 2.04 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, providing a strong liquidity position [7] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio has been steadily declining, from 64.89% in 2021 to 48.57% by Q3 2025, indicating improved financial stability [7] Shareholder Returns - Luoyang Molybdenum has consistently rewarded its shareholders, with a total cash dividend payout of 21.56 billion yuan since its listing in 2012, maintaining a dividend payout ratio of 40.32% [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the renewed focus on strategic metal reserves by countries like Australia, the EU, and the US, indicating a significant increase in the importance of "critical mineral resources" since 2025 [2][3]. - The strategic metal storage initiatives are expected to create investment opportunities, particularly in metals with concentrated supply chains and those essential for AI and energy transition [2][3]. Summary by Sections Strategic Metal Storage Initiatives - Australia announced a AUD 1.2 billion strategic reserve plan for critical minerals, prioritizing antimony, gallium, and rare earths [1]. - The EU plans to raise EUR 3 billion for a supply chain strategy, establishing a platform for critical materials [1]. - The US plans to procure USD 500 million of cobalt, USD 245 million of antimony, USD 100 million of tantalum, and USD 45 million of scandium [1]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies investment opportunities in metals with high supply concentration and security risks, such as cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo, copper and lithium from South America, and nickel from Indonesia [2]. - It emphasizes the demand for copper, aluminum, and tin driven by AI and energy transition, while noting supply constraints for these metals [3]. - Military-related metals like tungsten, antimony, and rare earths are highlighted as having tight supply, with significant applications in defense [3]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their strategic positioning in the metals market: - Copper: Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum [4]. - Aluminum: Yunnan Aluminum and China Aluminum [4]. - Cobalt and Nickel: Huayou Cobalt and others [4]. - Tungsten: China Tungsten High-Tech [4]. - Tin: Xiyang Tin and others [4]. - Antimony: Huaxi Nonferrous [4]. - Rare Earths: Northern Rare Earth and others [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is expected to remain tight in 2026, supporting upward price movement. As of January 16, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 100,770 CNY/ton, down 0.63% from January 9, while LME copper closed at 12,803 USD/ton, down 1.50% [1] - The report highlights that the market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January 2026 [1] - The report anticipates that supply constraints and improving demand will lead to further increases in copper prices [4] Summary by Sections Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory increased by 17.2% week-on-week, while LME copper inventory rose by 4.6% [2] - As of January 16, 2026, global inventory across the three major exchanges reached 900,000 tons, up 7.7% from January 9 [2] Supply - The TC spot price reached a historical low of -46.6 USD/ton [3] - Domestic copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [2] - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 1,010 CNY/ton, indicating tighter scrap supply [2][55] Demand - The cable manufacturing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 55.99% [3] - The report notes that cable production accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand [3] - Air conditioning production is projected to see a year-on-year increase of 11% in January 2026, followed by declines of 11.4% and 2.4% in February and March, respectively [3][95] Futures - SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 24% week-on-week, with a total of 226,000 contracts as of January 16, 2026 [4] - COMEX non-commercial net long positions decreased by 7.6% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Zijin Mining, Western Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining, while keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including 山金国际, 赤峰黄金, 洛阳钼业, 中国宏桥, and 中钨高新 [10]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing a general upward trend, with significant price increases across various metals, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply chain dynamics [11][19]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies on the supply and demand dynamics of key metals, particularly copper and aluminum [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production capacities, as these factors are critical in determining future price movements [26][35]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Concerns over tariffs have led to a temporary pullback in silver prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as 兴业银锡 and 盛达资源 for potential investment opportunities [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories are rising, particularly in the U.S., raising concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions [2]. - The report notes that while high copper prices are suppressing end-user demand, the long-term consumption outlook remains strong due to infrastructure investments [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies [3]. - The report indicates that production cuts in aluminum processing are occurring, particularly in regions like Guizhou and Henan [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices are on an upward trend, supported by supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 力勤资源 for investment opportunities [4]. Tin - Supply chain bottlenecks and macroeconomic factors are providing short-term support for tin prices [5]. - The report suggests that companies like 华锡有色 and 兴业银锡 may benefit from these market conditions [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to export policy expectations and demand uncertainties [6]. - The report recommends关注 companies such as 赣锋锂业 and 天齐锂业 for potential investment [6]. Cobalt - Progress in cobalt shipments from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to support high cobalt prices in the short term [9]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like 华友钴业 and 腾远钴业 for investment opportunities [9].

Core Insights - In 2025, Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum both achieved record-high profits and market valuations, driven by strategic positioning in the global commodity market and effective operational management [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining expects a net profit of 51-52 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 59%-62%, with core mineral products seeing significant price and volume growth [2][3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit of 20-20.8 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.8%-53.71%, and is entering the 20 billion yuan profit range for the first time [2][3]. Production and Market Position - Zijin Mining's production includes approximately 90 tons of gold, 1.09 million tons of copper, and 437 tons of silver, positioning it as the fourth-largest metal mining company globally and the largest gold mining company [2][3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum's copper production reached 741,100 tons, with cobalt, molybdenum, tungsten, and niobium also hitting historical highs [3][4]. Strategic Initiatives - Luoyang Molybdenum's success is attributed to its long-term strategic focus on the energy transition and early investments in overseas copper assets, alongside capitalizing on the current metal price upcycle [1][4]. - The company is advancing its KFM Phase II project, expected to add 100,000 tons of copper production annually by 2027, and is planning further expansions to reach a target of 1 million tons of copper by 2028 [4]. Management Changes - Zijin Mining has undergone a leadership transition, with a new management team emphasizing stability and internal promotion, which is seen as crucial for maintaining strategic continuity [5][6]. - Luoyang Molybdenum has introduced a new management team with significant external experience, aiming to enhance global management capabilities and adapt to evolving industry demands [7][8]. Industry Trends - The contrasting management strategies of Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum reflect broader trends in the mining industry, with Zijin focusing on internal stability and Luoyang on external talent acquisition to drive innovation and digital transformation [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Copper prices may experience high-level fluctuations in the short term due to inventory accumulation and delayed tariff expectations. Recent price changes for copper include a decrease of -0.50% for LME copper, -0.63% for SHFE copper, and -0.71% for COMEX copper. The significant inventory accumulation includes LME copper at 144,000 tons (+3.31%), COMEX copper at 54,300 short tons (+4.81%), and SHFE copper at 214,000 tons (+18.3%). The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory is at 321,000 tons (+17.20%). The operating rate for electrolytic copper rods increased to 57.47% (+9.65 percentage points) [4] - Aluminum prices are also expected to face high-level fluctuations due to inventory accumulation. The price of alumina has decreased by 1.12% to 2,655 CNY/ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83% to 24,185 CNY/ton. The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina is at 89.16 million tons/year with an operating rate of 80.82% (+0.31 percentage points). Domestic aluminum production capacity is nearing its ceiling, and demand is expected to grow, potentially leading to a shortage [4] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with carbonate lithium prices rising by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton. The production of lithium carbonate is at 22,600 tons, with a slight increase of 0.3%. The demand for lithium battery materials continues to grow, and the supply-demand dynamics are expected to reverse, leading to an upward price trend [4] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply. The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply structure remains tight, and prices are likely to rise further [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic indicators show that the US December CPI year-on-year rate is at 2.70%, matching expectations. Retail sales for November increased by 0.6%, exceeding expectations of 0.4% [8] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows an increase of 3.03%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking third among the Shenwan sectors [10] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper: LME copper price decreased by 0.50%, SHFE copper by 0.63%, and COMEX copper by 0.71%. Inventory levels increased significantly, with LME copper inventory up by 3.31% and SHFE copper inventory up by 18.26% [24] - Aluminum: LME aluminum price fell by 0.73%, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.83%. The inventory situation shows a mixed trend, with LME aluminum inventory down by 1.97% and SHFE aluminum inventory up by 29.24% [34] - Lead and Zinc: LME lead price increased by 1.03%, and SHFE lead by 1.62%. LME zinc price rose by 3.17%, and SHFE zinc by 4.38%. The mining profit for zinc increased by 5.77% to 11,284 CNY/ton [48] - Tin and Nickel: LME tin price rose by 11.68%, and SHFE tin by 18.70%. LME nickel price increased by 0.14%, and SHFE nickel by 5.77% [62] 3. Energy Metals - Lithium: The price of lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 158,000 CNY/ton, with lithium spodumene rising by 5.32% to 1,980 USD/ton. The profit margins for lithium production are showing significant fluctuations [78] - Cobalt: The price of MB cobalt increased by 0.59% to 25.68 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.31% to 452,000 CNY/ton. The supply dynamics remain tight, supporting price increases [90]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, among others [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving up precious metal prices, with gold and silver showing significant increases due to heightened risk aversion [1][9]. - Industrial metal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with aluminum and copper facing downward pressure while zinc and nickel show some resilience [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic policies aimed at boosting demand, which are expected to support industrial metal prices in the near term [9][26]. Industry Performance - The SW Nonferrous Index increased by 3.94% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index saw declines of 0.45% and 0.57%, respectively [9]. - Precious metals such as gold and silver have seen price increases of 1.83% and 12.73%, respectively, reflecting strong market demand [9][15]. Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.65% to $3,129 per ton, while copper prices fell by 1.21% to $12,808.5 per ton [15]. - Zinc prices increased by 1.86% to $3,207.5 per ton, and nickel prices rose by 0.52% to $17,792 per ton [15]. - The report notes that domestic aluminum production is increasing, but demand remains weak, leading to a slight rise in inventory levels [26][28]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are projected to continue rising due to central bank purchases and a weakening dollar, with current prices around 1,034.77 CNY per gram [9][72]. - Silver prices have surged, with a notable increase in demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties [9][72]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are expected to rise as supply chain issues persist, with current market dynamics favoring a bullish outlook [9][88]. - Lithium prices have also seen significant increases, reflecting strong demand in the energy sector [9][88].