Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - Q3 U.S. GDP growth recorded at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[2] - Personal consumption contributed 2.46% to GDP, up from 1.90% in Q2[2] - October non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 113,000[4] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation for September at 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%[6] - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth steady at 4.0%[4] - Unemployment rate increased to 4.14%, above the expected 4.10%[4] Group 3: Manufacturing and Trade - October manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, indicating expansion[8] - Trade deficit impact on GDP narrowed from -0.90% in Q2 to -0.56% in Q3[3] - New export orders fell to 47.3, reflecting weak external demand[8] Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. dollar index rebounded to 104.3 after initial drop[1] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached key levels, indicating market volatility[1] - Focus remains on upcoming U.S. elections and November FOMC meeting[1]

Overseas Macro - In October, the US manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.8, slightly above the expected 47.5, continuing to remain below the neutral level of 50 for four consecutive months[2] - The US services PMI for October was recorded at 55.3, exceeding the expected 55.0, marking the 23rd consecutive month of expansion[2] - The US unemployment claims fell to 227,000, indicating resilience in the US economy[1] Domestic Macro - In September, industrial profits in China continued to decline, with a total profit of 52,281.6 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year[4] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in September was -27.1%, a significant drop from the previous -17.8%[5] - The revenue for industrial enterprises in the first nine months of 2024 was 99.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%[4] Market Performance - The US dollar index rose to 104.3, reflecting a 0.83% increase week-on-week and a 3.53% increase month-to-date[14] - The 10-year US Treasury yield surpassed 4.2%, indicating a 17 basis points increase week-on-week[10] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,299.70, with a year-to-date increase of 10.92%[9]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was revised to 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.9%[7] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September added 254,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 140,000[8] - China's GDP growth rate for Q3 was recorded at 4.6%, slightly above the expected 4.5%[14] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. CPI in September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021[8] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut of 50 basis points, lowering the target range to 4.75%-5.0%[8] - China's CPI in September increased by only 0.4%, indicating weak inflationary pressures[14] Group 3: Market Performance - Domestic equity markets outperformed international markets, with A-shares rising by 22.21% in September[19] - The South China commodity index recorded a gain of 4.60% in September, with all sectors showing positive returns[19] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.96% in September, marking three consecutive months of decline[19]

Group 1: Overseas Macro - In September, US retail sales increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%[2] - Year-on-year, US retail sales recorded a growth of 1.7%, down from 2.2% in the previous month[2] - The US dollar index reached a peak of 103.8, while the 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 4.10%[1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, shifting focus from anti-inflation to stabilizing the economy[3] Group 2: Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth for Q3 was 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%[4] - The GDP deflator recorded a year-on-year decrease of -0.8%, indicating easing deflationary pressures[4] - In September, retail sales in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%[4] - Fixed asset investment in September showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.3%[8] Group 3: Real Estate and Investment - In September, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 96.82 million square meters, the lowest for the same period since 2010, with a year-on-year decline of -10.8%[8] - The proportion of private investment in fixed assets fell to a record low of 50.4%, indicating weakened confidence in the private sector[8]

Overseas Macro - In September, the US CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[2] - Core CPI also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, compared to the expected 3.2% and the previous 3.2%[2] - Initial jobless claims reached 258,000, the highest in over a year, indicating potential market weakness[2] - The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November[1] Domestic Macro - In September, China's CPI fell to 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%, and PPI dropped to -2.8%, worse than the expected -2.5%[4] - Core CPI continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on consumer spending[4] - Food prices supported the CPI reading, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to enhance fiscal policy, focusing on risk mitigation and economic growth, but specifics on scale were not disclosed[9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.45%[10] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.13%[10] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%, reflecting market adjustments to interest rate expectations[11]

Overseas Macro - In August, the US PCE inflation rate fell to 2.2%, the lowest since March 2021, with core PCE at 2.7%[2] - The US manufacturing PMI for September dropped to 47.0, a 15-month low, while the services PMI remained in expansion at 55.4[3][4] - The dollar index fluctuated above 100, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 3.75%[1] Domestic Macro - A-shares experienced a significant rebound, with the offshore RMB breaking the 7 mark, driven by unexpected policy support[1] - In September, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and interest rates by 20-30 basis points, signaling future easing[9] - Industrial profits in August showed a year-on-year decline of 17.8%, indicating weak demand and profit pressures across various sectors[6][7] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include weaker-than-expected fiscal policy, increased volatility during overseas holidays, and ongoing geopolitical tensions[1] - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year[1]

宏观周报 2024 年 9 月 23 日 美联储 50BP 开启降息，国内 9 月降息预期落空 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美联储9月FOMC正式开启降息周期，首次降 息幅度50BP略超市场预期，但又在情理之中。点阵图显示 年内再降息50BP，本轮周期共降250BP，经济预测报告小 幅下调今年GDP至2%，同时上调未来2年失业率至4.3- 4.4%，通胀中枢预期下调，整体经济预计仍偏稳健。美联 储的重点显著偏向就业市场，鲍威尔称"数据将推动货币 政策选择，降息将根据需要加快、放慢或暂停"，鸽派降 息+鹰派指引，FOMC会议后市场交易未来货币政策空间 降低，降息落地10Y美债利率反而上行至3.7%。50BP的 "预防式"降息叠加不弱的经济数据，海外上周重回交易 "不衰退"。本周关注美国9月PMI、PCE及二季度GDP 终值。 ⚫ 国内方面，在美联储降息靴子落地后，投资者对9月LPR 下调有不小的预期，降息落空后，国内资产延续此前"股 弱债强"趋势。虽然LPR未调降，我们认为存量房贷利率 下调仍然可期，此举将缓解居民资产负债收缩倾向，并促 进居民消费，可持续跟踪进展。本周关注8月工业企业利 润数据及MLF续作情况。 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 165,000, indicating a weakening job market[8] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor participation rate remained steady at 62.7%[8] - August CPI in the U.S. was recorded at 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[8] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total of 1-2 cuts anticipated by the end of the year[9] - The market's sensitivity to recession signals has increased, reflecting concerns over economic stability[2] Chinese Economic Conditions - China's CPI for August was 0.6%, while PPI was -1.8%, both below market expectations, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[15] - Core CPI fell to a historical low of 0.3%, suggesting weak consumer demand for goods and services[15] Asset Performance - In August, domestic bond performance was +0.06%, while equities fell by -3.97% and commodities by -1.51%[22] - Overseas markets outperformed domestic ones, with global bonds rising by +2.37% and equities by +1.58%[22] Risk Factors - Domestic consumption recovery is weaker than expected, and the risk of U.S. recession is increasing, alongside geopolitical tensions[2]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - The US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.0%, driven primarily by personal consumption, indicating strong consumer contribution to the economy[3] - The core PCE for July was lower than expected at 2.6%, suggesting a moderate inflation environment[4] - The trade deficit worsened, contributing -0.77% to GDP, indicating strong internal demand despite external pressures[3] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August remained weak at 49.1, indicating continued contraction for four consecutive months[9] - The non-manufacturing PMI was slightly better at 50.2, but still below historical averages, reflecting weak recovery in services[9] - Industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6% for the first seven months of 2024, with July profits up 4.2%[12] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - The US dollar index hit a year-to-date low before rebounding, while 10Y US Treasury yields fluctuated above 3.8%[1] - Risks include weaker-than-expected domestic recovery, limited overseas monetary easing, and escalating geopolitical tensions[1] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including policy expectations and corporate foreign exchange settlements[1]

Market Overview - The bond market has entered an observation phase, influenced primarily by central bank actions and stock market rebounds[1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond futures contract T2412 showed a monthly fluctuation of 1.23%, with a high of 106.365 and a low of 105.065, ending at 105.755, reflecting a decrease of 0.18%[8] Monetary Policy and Strategy - The central bank has signaled a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in September, although the extent and speed of these cuts remain uncertain due to resilient economic data[1] - The central bank's operations in August included a net injection of 391.4 billion yuan, with a focus on adjusting the yield curve through the sale of long-term bonds[12][14] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, with food prices contributing significantly to this increase[19][22] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.8% in July, indicating ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector[24] Investment Trends - The total social financing stock as of July was 395.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, reflecting sluggish growth in corporate and household sectors[16] - Fixed asset investment from January to July was 287.61 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, with notable increases in the secondary industry[32] Trade and Exports - In the first seven months of 2024, China's total goods trade reached 24.83 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.7% to 14.26 trillion yuan[33] - The trade surplus expanded by 7.9% to 518 billion USD, indicating a robust export performance despite global economic challenges[33]