1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US talks achieved substantial progress, and the market risk appetite significantly rebounded. However, the weak US economic data released over the weekend increased concerns about demand. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable, and the downstream consumption is slightly better than expected, with inventory still being depleted. But as the seasonal off - peak season approaches, the sustainability of inventory depletion is questionable. After the continuous rebound of aluminum prices, more positive stimuli are needed for further increase. It is expected that the upward space of aluminum prices is limited [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, 2025, the price of LME Aluminum 3 - month increased from 2418 to 2484.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased from 19445 to 20020 dollars/ton, and the spot premium of LME changed from - 9.4 to 5.79 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 8100 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2193 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 3.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased by 67.2 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit increased by 399.8 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - The Sino - US talks had positive results, but the weak US economic data raised demand concerns. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has some resilience. The inventory is being depleted, but the sustainability is in doubt. After the full trading of macro - positive factors, the upward space of aluminum prices is limited [7] 3.4 Industry News - UAE's largest aluminum recycling plant construction is 50% completed, 42 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to produce the first batch of smelted metal in the first half of 2026. India proposed to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to US steel and aluminum tariffs. In April 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 51.8 tons, and the cumulative exports from January to April decreased by 5.7% compared with the same period last year [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and the seasonal changes of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories [9][11][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to the weakening fundamentals. The supply side shows that last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan, a rise rate of 1.99%, a total trading volume of 9932652 lots, and a total open interest of 2795790 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3226 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan, a rise rate of 2.19%, a total trading volume of 3176582 lots, and a total open interest of 1362524 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 728.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 32.0 yuan, a rise rate of 4.60%, a total trading volume of 2364452 lots, and a total open interest of 757976 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 25.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 2.85%, a total trading volume of 2616452 lots, and a total open interest of 464062 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1445.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 1.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 0.07%, a total trading volume of 132073 lots, and a total open interest of 51651 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by the macro - environment, but were dragged down by the weakening molten iron production, resulting in a fall after reaching a high. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 765 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 638 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 127 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.36 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 244.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.88 tons [4]. - On the supply side, last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2422.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 117.9 tons. The Australian shipping volume was 1797.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.0 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1593.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.4 tons. The Brazilian shipping volume was 625.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 146.0 tons. The total global iron ore shipping volume was 3029.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.5 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14746.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.72 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 339.59 tons, an increase of 11.08 tons [5]. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also correspondingly suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6][7]. - According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy application volume has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy application volume for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, of which new - energy vehicles accounted for more than 53% [10]. - From January to April, the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, steel mill profits, black metal smelting and rolling industry profitability, iron ore supply and demand indicators (such as shipping volume, arrival volume, inventory, etc.), and steel production and consumption indicators (such as daily and monthly production, apparent consumption, etc.) [9][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the cost side has stopped falling and stabilized, with some third - party quotes rising. The pre - scheduled production of cathode material factories has been reduced, downstream sentiment is cautious, market transactions are sluggish, and there is no obvious improvement on the demand side. The upstream resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are increasing, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [4]. - In terms of cost, during the reporting period, the price of spodumene rebounded, while the mica price continued to decline [4]. - On the trading floor, after the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement, there was a short - term rally due to short - sellers leaving the market, but the rebound was limited, and the trading volume increased significantly. The short - selling trend continued, and the price hit a new low on Friday [4]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment is strong, and the price may break through the previous low. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized and miners are willing to support the price, the lithium ore resources are not scarce, and the bargaining power of the mining end is limited. The supply - side resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are limited. The salt lake is still in the production - increasing stage, and there is an inventory expectation at the import end. The demand side has weak growth, and the lithium price may remain weak [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) remained unchanged at 115 dollars/ton; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 1.13% to 715 dollars/ton; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased by 1.70% to 695 dollars/ton [6]. - The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 1.59% to 6.30 million yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a 100% decrease [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.34% to 92,073 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,624 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 62,580 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 328,700 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 16, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 15,843 tons, a decrease of 205 tons from the previous period. Although smelters had production cuts, the salt lake was in the production - increasing stage, so the supply - side contraction was limited [8]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a 47% month - on - month increase and a 4.8% year - on - year decrease. The import from Chile and Argentina changed, and the increase in imports from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply in May [8]. - In March, the import of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease. The imports from different countries had different changes, and overall, lithium ore resources were not scarce [9][10]. - In terms of demand, for cathode materials, the production and prices of some products decreased, and the overall cathode material market was in an oversupply situation, with most prices still falling. Some cathode material factories reduced their production plans in May, and there was no obvious increase in lithium demand expected [11]. - In the new energy vehicle market, from May 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 294,000, a 32% year - on - year increase and a 29% month - on - month increase. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 51.3%. New energy vehicle consumption still had resilience, and new policies were introduced [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,073 tons, an increase of 311 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased, while the market inventory decreased, showing a differentiated trend [13]. This Week's Outlook - The short - selling sentiment continues, and the lithium price may hit a new low. There is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment on the trading floor is strong, and the price may break through. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized, the supply - side resumption of production is slow, and the demand side has weak growth [14]. Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million, and the sales of various consumer goods increased [15]. - On May 7, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, supply structure, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, cathode materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [17][19][22][28]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the Sino-US trade truce boosting the market, with both sides suspending and canceling most tariff measures. Subsequently, the market digested the optimistic sentiment, and there was uncertainty about the tariff policy after 90 days. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, leading to concerns about US stagflation risks and global supply chain disruptions affecting both developed and developing economies, causing downward pressure on exports and economic slowdown. Domestically, in April, the social financing structure favored government bonds, but the negative scissors gap widened, and the central bank's financial incremental policies released positive sentiment. Fundamentally, the spot TC remained at a negative value of -$40, global inventories rebounded from a low level, the Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premium was high, and the near-month B structure of the futures market narrowed [2][7]. - Overall, the market has digested the positive sentiment of the Sino-US truce and is worried that tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, dragging down the global economic growth outlook. Domestically, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut have been implemented, and social financing in April maintained stable growth. Fundamentally, the production capacity of major overseas mines is sustainable, the tight balance cycle of refined copper in China is shifting to marginal relaxation, and social inventories are rebounding from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high-level volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the global trade pattern [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 9 to May 16, LME copper rose by $1.00 to $9440.00 per ton, a 0.01% increase; COMEX copper fell by 6.25 cents to 459.15 cents per pound, a 1.34% decrease; SHFE copper rose by 690 yuan to 78140 yuan per ton, an 0.89% increase; international copper rose by 600 yuan to 69350 yuan per ton, an 0.87% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.21 to 8.28. The LME spot premium dropped by $17.74 to $31.45 per ton, a 36.06% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium increased by 365 yuan to 445 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 16, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 528,663 tons, with a net increase of 5451 tons or 1.04% compared to May 9. Specifically, LME copper inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,375 tons, a 6.47% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 9414 short tons to 169,664 short tons, a 5.87% increase; SHFE inventory increased by 27,437 tons to 108,124 tons, a 34.00% increase; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 71,500 tons, a 20.99% decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino-US economic and trade talks issued a joint statement to relieve pressure on the global economy. Both countries maintained a relatively low tariff of 10%, and the US suspended the additional 24% tariff on China for 90 days. China also suspended or canceled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. The UN report shows that although the global tariff war is easing, tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties continue to disrupt the supply chain, pushing up production costs and slowing down corporate investment. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.4% in 2025. Domestically, China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan at the end of April, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, indicating an improvement in the economic credit structure [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: This week, the spot TC remained at -$43 per ton. The Antamina copper mine in Peru had a temporary shutdown due to a mine accident, and the President of Panama refused to sign a new agreement with First Quantum for the Cobre Panama project, leading to a long - term tight supply at the global mine end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper capacity utilization rate was generally high. In mid - May, imported supplies began to decline, and the blockage at some African ports was resolved. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects started one after another, the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%, driving the operating rate of refined copper rod production back to 75%. The domestic social inventory rebounded to 130,000 tons, and the near - month B structure in the domestic market narrowed after the inventory bottomed out and rebounded [9]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Reports**: Glencore's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 168,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. MMG's copper production (electrolytic copper + copper concentrate) in the first quarter was 118,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76%. MMG raised its 2025 production guidance to 466,000 - 522,000 tons [11][12]. - **Project News**: First Quantum's closed Panama copper mine, if still in operation, would contribute over $1.7 billion to Panama's economy. However, the President of Panama refused to provide a new mining contract [13]. - **Processing Fee**: According to Mysteel research, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China last week rose to 750 - 950 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 200 yuan per ton. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China will continue to recover in late May [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded area inventory, etc., to visually display the market situation of copper [15][18][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract remained flat; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%; the September rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2370 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.47% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans first rose and then fell. The May USDA report was bullish, and the extension of the clean fuel tax credit boosted prices. However, the expected U.S. biodiesel mandatory blending target was much lower than expected, and the sharp decline in U.S. soybean oil drove soybeans down. The U.S. soybean sowing maintained a relatively fast pace, and the weather conditions were good. The oil mill operating rate rebounded, the expected supply of bean meal increased, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. In the weak reality pattern, the Dalian bean meal fluctuated weakly [4][7]. - The weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and the sowing season may proceed smoothly. Recently, the U.S. biodiesel policy has high uncertainty, which intensifies the market volatility. There is no theme to drive the market, and U.S. soybeans are likely to fluctuate. In China, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, the supply is gradually recovering, the inventories of oil mills and feed enterprises have both increased, the trading demand declined last week, and the spot price is still under pressure. Since the rapeseed meal inventory is still available, as the bean meal spot price falls, the substitution demand increases, and rapeseed meal is still under short - term pressure. Overall, both bean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 1 to 434 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.23%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 4 to 457 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.88%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased by 8.08 to 83.74 yuan per ton. The DCE bean meal contract remained flat at 2899 yuan per ton. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%. The bean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 38 to 386 yuan per ton. The East China spot price dropped 200 to 3000 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.25%, and the South China spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%. The South China spot - futures price difference dropped 80 to 161 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The May USDA report showed that in the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 new - season U.S. soybean balance sheet, the yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, the output was 4.34 billion bushels, which was in line with expectations. In terms of demand, the crushing demand increased to 2.49 billion bushels, the export demand decreased to 1.815 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 295 million bushels. The report was generally bullish [8]. - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, the previous week's 30%, and last year's 34%, with a five - year average of 37%. The emergence rate was 17%, compared with 7% in the previous week, 15% last year, and a five - year average of 11%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than last year's 11%. The weather forecast shows that the northern U.S. soybean - producing areas may have more precipitation, which may slow down the sowing progress, but the weather conditions in other areas are good, which is conducive to maintaining a relatively fast sowing pace [8]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market season increased by 282,000 tons to 377,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48 million tons, with a sales progress of 95.3%, higher than last year's 92.1%. China did not purchase U.S. soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current season was 22.48 million tons [9]. - The NOPA crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.412 billion pounds and the March 2025 level of 1.498 billion pounds. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in April 2025 was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 184.642 million bushels and lower than the March 2025 level of 194.551 million bushels [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 1.78 dollars per bushel, up from 1.75 dollars per bushel the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 47.98 cents per pound, down from 49.03 cents per pound the previous week. The price of 48% protein bean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 290.38 dollars per short - ton, up from 287.08 dollars per short - ton the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.63 dollars per bushel, down from 10.71 dollars per bushel the previous week [10]. - Conab data showed that as of the week of May 10, 2025, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 98.5%, higher than the previous week's 97.7%, last year's 95.6%, and the five - year average of 97.6%. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to reach 14.27 million tons, higher than last year's 13.47 million tons [10]. - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 64.9%, up from 44.9% the previous week, and the harvesting work accelerated. In the next 15 days, the weather in the producing areas will be relatively dry, which is conducive to the progress of harvesting [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.3491 million tons, an increase of 602,700 tons from the previous week and 1.1634 million tons from the same period last year. The bean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 458,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 4.7368 million tons, an increase of 436,000 tons from the previous week and 221,900 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 702,000 tons from the previous week and 620,200 tons from the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 78,100 tons, including 40,600 tons of spot trading and 37,500 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average total trading volume was 264,600 tons. The daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 157,000 tons, up from 151,000 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9055 million tons, up from 1.846 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 5.14 days, up from 4.45 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat (Secex) data showed that Brazil exported 4,766,710.61 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of May, with a daily average export volume of 794,451.77 tons, a 24% increase compared with the daily average export volume of 639,843.92 tons in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [13]. - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from May 5 - 9 was 612.80 reais per ton, down from 623.09 reais per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that week was 1690.10 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5735.94 reais per ton [13]. - The U.S. House of Representatives Tax Committee proposed to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy to December 31, 2031, and cancel the impact of indirect land - use change (ILUC) on tax - credit assessment, which may significantly reduce the compliance costs of biofuel producers. Biodiesel producers using soybean oil as raw materials are expected to be the main beneficiaries [13]. - If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement, U.S. soybean exports may decline by 20%, and the price will plummet. The U.S. soybean export volume may drop from the initial 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the farm price may drop to 9.10 dollars per bushel in the 2025/2026 season, compared with the USDA's forecast of 10.25 dollars per bushel [14]. - CONAB's May forecast data showed that the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 168.3418 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6205 million tons (14%) and a month - on - month increase of 472,000 tons (0.3%). The expected sowing area was 47.6127 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4631 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 97,000 hectares (0.2%). The expected yield per hectare was 3.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 334.7 kilograms (10.5%) and a month - on - month increase of 2.7 kilograms (0.1%) [15]. - A commodity research report showed that Australia's rapeseed output in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 6.2 million tons, in line with the USDA's monthly supply - and - demand report. The forecast range was between 5.7 - 6.3 million tons. Most areas in Australia were dry in the past two weeks. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in New South Wales are expected to receive above - average rainfall, while other areas in Australia will remain dry until the end of the month. The seasonal weather model shows that Australia's rainfall and temperature in June will be normal, which may relieve the current drought and help the early growth of crops [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate, regional crushing profit, bean meal main contract trend, spot - futures price difference of bean meal, management fund CBOT net position, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, U.S. soybean - producing area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvesting progress, U.S. soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world, U.S. soybean weekly net sales volume, U.S. soybean cumulative sales volume to China, U.S. soybean weekly export volume, U.S. oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average pick - up volume, bean meal weekly average trading volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill crushing operating rate, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [17][18][19][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][38][40][42][43][45][47][49][51][52][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of industrial silicon last week was hindered as the market digested the positive sentiment of the China-US truce, and the trading focus returned to the weak supply-demand fundamentals of the commodity. The supply side is operating weakly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 50% and that in the Southwest below 30%, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu also decreasing. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. After a brief boost from macro sentiment, industrial silicon has returned to a weak fundamental pattern, with social inventory rising slightly to 599,000 tons and the center of the spot market continuing to decline. Technically, the previous bottom support of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to continue to explore the bottom in the short term [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the price of the industrial silicon main contract decreased from 8,205 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials also showed varying degrees of decline, while the price of 3303 spot remained unchanged. The industrial silicon social inventory increased from 596,000 tons to 599,000 tons, an increase of 0.50% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In April, China's social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year. The cumulative social financing increment in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year. The issuance of government bonds accelerated beyond expectations, which was the main driving force for the acceleration of social financing in April. As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, indicating that China's economic credit structure is gradually improving and the long-term foundation for stable economic growth remains solid [8]. - **Supply and demand aspect**: As of May 16th, the weekly output of industrial silicon dropped to 69,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%. The number of open furnaces in the three major main production areas decreased to 213, with an overall open furnace rate of 26.6%. In April, China's industrial silicon output was only 301,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. The photovoltaic winning projects are mostly small and medium-sized projects, which have a limited impact on the overall installation volume [9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of May 16th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 599,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons. The exchange registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard of delivery products, most of the 4-series brand warehouse receipts could not be re-registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5-series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. The recent pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened mainly due to the continuous decline in domestic production [10]. Industry News - **Component link**: In the first quarter of 2025, JinkoSolar, LONGi, JA Solar, and Trina Solar still ranked among the top four in the photovoltaic module shipment volume. In 2024, their total component shipment volume exceeded 300GW, accounting for nearly 60% of the global new photovoltaic installation. These four companies have established their moats through technological leadership. They have launched new products with high conversion efficiency and are also competing in the next-generation industrial technology [12]. - **Price trend**: According to Sobee Consulting's price tracking data, the price of silicon materials decreased slightly last week. Silicon material enterprises continued to reduce production schedules, and the inventory backlog problem of polysilicon manufacturers was prominent, with the short-term price downward trend difficult to reverse. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained stable. The price of photovoltaic modules has rebounded since March, but with the end of the peak installation period, the component market price has shown a downward trend. In April 2025, nearly 30GW of photovoltaic modules were tendered [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including weak US economic data, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy uncertainties. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic impacts [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Overseas: US April retail sales had a 0.1% month - on - month increase, with weak consumer spending in optional categories. April PPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and dropped 0.5% month - on - month. The dollar index fell to 100.7, 10Y US Treasury yield to 4.43%. Gold rebounded nearly 2% after hitting a one - month low, oil prices dropped over 2% due to supply expectations, and copper prices rose. Powell mentioned policy framework adjustments and potential long - term interest rate hikes [2]. - Domestic: A - shares declined on low volume. The bond market saw rising Treasury yields despite the arrival of trillion - level reserve requirement ratio cut funds due to concerns about the central bank's policy shift [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rebounded. COMEX gold futures rose 1.74% to $3243.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.07% to $32.79 per ounce. Weak US economic data, a weaker dollar index, and increased geopolitical risk aversion drove the rise. Short - term price rebounds are expected, but prices are still in a phased adjustment [4][5]. Copper - LME copper inventory dropped to 186,000 tons. The global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025. Codelco and Rio Tinto plan to explore a new copper project in Chile. With low inventory and some positive factors, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures rose 0.47% to 20,250 yuan/ton, while LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased significantly. Weak US economic data increased macro - pressure, but inventory reduction supported prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be short - term strong but with limited upside [8][9][10]. Alumina - Alumina futures rose 4.93% to 2019 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to enterprise maintenance and production cuts, and the market is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to supply - demand pattern changes [11]. Zinc - US economic data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting zinc prices. However, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate. Zinc prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [12]. Lead - Due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption in the off - season, the fundamental support for lead prices is insufficient. But the positive macro - environment supports short - term high - level consolidation [13]. Tin - The supply - demand of tin is currently in a weak balance. The short - term trend is strong but faces pressure from the 40 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to inventory data [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamental situation is bearish, with high inventory suppressing prices. Lithium prices may attempt a second downward breakthrough [18][19]. Nickel - The market has different expectations after the easing of tariff frictions. The supply surplus exists, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [20]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from the potential US - Iran agreement. However, considering the current price level, it is not advisable to short Shanghai crude oil futures at present [21]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel demand has recovered but with limited strength. Supply is stable, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' demand is falling, and the supply is generally loose. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean crushing was higher than expected, and the drought in the US soybean - growing area increased. With weak domestic demand and falling Brazilian discounts, double - meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25][26]. Palm Oil - The sharp decline in US soybean oil prices drags down the palm oil market. Although Malaysian palm oil exports increased in the first half of May, the expected increase in domestic inventory in June may put pressure on prices. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US inflation continues to cool, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021. The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September, with two cuts this year. Trump pressured Powell to cut rates after the CPI report. Market risk appetite has increased, with the US stock market rising, the US dollar index falling, and oil, gold, and copper prices rising [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher but closed slightly lower. After the Sino - US tariff downgrade, the market faced profit - taking pressure. The bond market slightly recovered, and the capital market was loose [3]. - For precious metals, although gold and silver prices rebounded due to cooling US inflation and bargain - hunting, the core driving factor of safe - haven demand is receding, and gold is still in a phased adjustment [4]. - For copper, Sino - US trade truce boosts market risk appetite. With positive fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [5][6]. - For aluminum, macro and fundamental factors are positive, but attention should be paid to the realization of consumption [7]. - For zinc, although short - term factors are favorable, the supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [8][9]. - For lead, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and lead prices continue to test integer pressure [10]. - For tin, although the short - term macro sentiment is positive, the resumption of the Bisie tin mine will suppress price increases [11]. - For industrial silicon, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is expected to oscillate at a low level [12][13]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price trend is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [14][15]. - For nickel, the short - term price lacks support, and nickel prices will oscillate [16]. - For crude oil, the price has reached the pressure range, and there may be an inflection point in the near future [17][18]. - For steel products, the futures market rebounds, while the spot market is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [19]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and iron ore prices will oscillate [20]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the spot market is under pressure, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - For palm oil, due to the unexpected increase in inventory, palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major metal futures contracts, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and price units [25]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - The table presents the data of various metals on May 13 and May 12, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios, as well as their changes [26][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US tariff reduction exceeded expectations, improving global risk appetite. The capital market's risk preference was boosted, and the market pricing mainline might shift from tariff policies to fundamental factors [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions led to a decline in the demand for safe - haven assets, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Gold is in a phased adjustment, and the adjustment time is expected to be long [3][4]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. Copper prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term, supported by fundamentals but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar index [6][7]. - The progress of trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price rebounded. The continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory indicates that consumption still has resilience [8]. - The Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved significant progress, and the alumina price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover due to the improvement of both macro and fundamental aspects [9][10]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction agreement alleviated concerns about the US economic recession. Zinc prices first rose and then fell, and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term under the stimulation of macro - level benefits [11]. - The lead price was boosted by macro - level benefits but faced pressure at the integer level. There is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. - The reduction of Sino - US tariffs exceeded expectations, and the concern about the decline in tin demand eased. Tin prices were driven by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. - The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted risk preference. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the supply - demand imbalance [15][16]. - The trend of lithium carbonate prices is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend [17][18]. - The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded market expectations, and the Philippine nickel ore export ban might be implemented in June. Nickel prices are expected to rise [19][20]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade results were positive, the oil price might return to a downward trend due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and the mediocre demand growth [22][23]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak [24][25]. - The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly due to the improved market sentiment, although the supply is generally loose [26]. - The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper fell back after hitting 9600 US dollars. The spot market transaction was weak, and the LME inventory decreased to 19.1 million tons [6]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. The fundamentals still provide strong support, but the rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. LME aluminum rose 2.15%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline significantly, and the aluminum price tested the pressure above the 20,000 - yuan mark again [8]. 3.1.3 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose 0.67%. The supply decreased due to factory maintenance and production reduction, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover [9][10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of zinc first rose and then fell. The import of zinc ingots supplemented the market supply, and the downstream procurement was weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and gave back the gains at night. It is in the consumption off - season, the downstream procurement is insufficient, and there is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated sharply during the day and opened high and oscillated narrowly at night. The supply - demand is weak, and the tin price is driven by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated widely. The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded expectations, and the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban in June. The nickel price may rise [19][20]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.36%. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions reduced the demand for safe - haven assets, and the rebound of the US dollar index also pressured the prices [3]. 3.2 Energy 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The oil price has rebounded to near the previous high. Due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and mediocre demand growth, it may return to a downward trend [22][23]. 3.3 Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rose. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak, steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24][25]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rose. The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment improved. Although the supply is generally loose, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell. The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply - demand is imbalanced, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly. The trend is unclear due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile trend. Last week, the industrial data was below expectations, with a significant weakening in steel demand. The output of rebar declined, and the apparent demand decreased substantially, leading to an increase in inventory. The output of hot-rolled coils remained stable, but the apparent demand also declined, resulting in a corresponding increase in inventory. The real estate downturn and seasonal patterns contributed to the decline in the apparent demand for building materials, and hot-rolled coils faced pressure on exports due to overseas anti-dumping measures. On the macro front, the high-level Sino-US economic and trade negotiations achieved substantial progress [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3022 yuan/ton, a decline of 74 yuan, and a drop of 2.39%. The total trading volume was 8,123,194 lots, and the total open interest was 2,893,444 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coils had a closing price of 3157 yuan/ton, a decline of 47 yuan, and a drop of 1.47%. The total trading volume was 2,485,168 lots, and the total open interest was 1,395,031 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 696.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.5 yuan, and a drop of 1.07%. The total trading volume was 1,895,858 lots, and the total open interest was 699,233 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 877.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.0 yuan, and a drop of 5.70%. The total trading volume was 1,356,112 lots, and the total open interest was 418,835 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1446.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 91.5 yuan, and a drop of 5.95%. The total trading volume was 98,662 lots, and the total open interest was 50,876 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The fundamental situation weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2910 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3170 (-50) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coils were at 3220 (-40) yuan/ton [4]. Macro Situation - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced the introduction of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, a reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, a decrease in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" [1][5][10]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development and re-approving a 60 billion yuan long-term investment pilot for insurance funds [5][10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support China Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi-"stabilization fund" and introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5][10]. - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10 to 11. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and issue a joint statement on May 12 [1][5][10]. Industry Situation - Last week, the rebar output was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 2.14 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons. The rebar inventory at mills was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, and the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons. The total inventory was 6.54 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons [1][6]. - The hot-rolled coil output was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The inventory at mills was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, and the social inventory was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.65 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The apparent demand was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons [1][6]. Industry News - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation, stating that China has noticed the US high-level's multiple statements expressing willingness to negotiate on tariff issues with China. The US has also actively conveyed information to China through relevant channels, and China is evaluating the situation [10]. - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including measures from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long-process steel mills, the profits of short-process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the output of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the social and mill inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils [9][11][13]