Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the dairy industry is experiencing a significant oversupply of raw milk, leading to a slowdown in the culling of dairy cows. The current contract milk price is 3.04 CNY/kg, while spot milk prices are below 2.5 CNY/kg, indicating financial strain on dairy farms [7] - The report suggests that the culling of dairy cows may accelerate in the near future due to increasing operational pressures on farms, with spot milk prices dropping to around 2.3 CNY/kg [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - For the farm sector, it is recommended to focus on Yuran Dairy (09858, Buy), which is the largest farm enterprise and is expected to benefit from the rebound in milk prices and the recovery of dairy cow fair value. The report also suggests paying attention to leading farm Modern Dairy (01117, Not Rated) [2] - In the dairy enterprise sector, the report recommends Tianrun Dairy (600419, Not Rated), Yili Group (600887, Buy), and Mengniu Dairy (02319, Buy). The current low milk prices and intense competition in the dairy product market are expected to improve as milk prices recover, benefiting both Yili and Mengniu [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that investment opportunities in the credit bond market for July are hidden in niche varieties, durations, and issuers [6][9]. - The report indicates that the short-end strategy remains stable, with high-grade bonds showing limited excess returns while low-grade bonds continue to be explored [6][9]. - The report notes that the market sentiment in the first week of July is positive, with mid-to-long-term spreads continuing to compress, indicating a market still seeking duration for yield [6][9]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the issuance of credit bonds has significantly decreased, but net financing has increased due to a faster reduction in repayment amounts [22][23]. - It mentions that the average coupon rates for newly issued AAA and AA+ bonds have shown a slight decline, while the issuance costs for mid-to-low grade bonds have increased [22][23]. - The report states that the valuation of credit bonds across various grades and maturities has declined, with mid-to-long-term yields decreasing more significantly than short-term yields [22][26]. Group 3 - The report suggests that the main strategy for urban investment bonds in July is to focus on short-end bonds within a 3-year duration, while extending duration to 5 years where possible [14][19]. - It indicates that the absolute yield gap has narrowed significantly, making further short-end exploration challenging, and emphasizes the need for a balanced approach in duration management [14][19]. - The report identifies specific regions such as Shandong, Sichuan, Tianjin, and Henan as areas for potential exploration in the short-end segment [14][19]. Group 4 - The report notes that credit spreads for urban investment bonds have generally narrowed by about 4 basis points across most provinces, with minimal differentiation between regions [29][30]. - It highlights that the credit spreads for various industries have also contracted by 3 to 4 basis points, indicating a consistent trend across sectors [29][30]. - The report points out that the real estate sector continues to experience significant valuation volatility, reflecting ongoing market challenges [29][30].

Group 1: Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" initiative aims to address chaotic low-price competition among enterprises, guiding improvements in product quality and enhancing national governance expectations[5] - The initiative emphasizes quality enhancement, technological investment, and protection of workers and small enterprises, focusing on "increasing quantity and improving quality" rather than merely price concerns[5] - Recent high-level discussions and meetings have repeatedly highlighted the importance of breaking "involution-style" competition to achieve high-quality development, with various industries responding positively[5] Group 2: Industry Responses - Industries under profit pressure, such as traditional sectors like cement and steel, are beginning to respond to the "anti-involution" measures, with some companies agreeing to production cuts[5] - The government is expected to implement further nationwide optimizations in procurement and bidding systems, enhancing the allocation of public resources[5] - Local government investment attraction models are anticipated to evolve, moving away from unsustainable fiscal subsidies towards regions with strong industrial chains and research infrastructure[5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The "anti-involution" approach is not about suppressing competition but rather facilitating a transformation in corporate governance and investment attraction practices, leading to long-term improvements in governance expectations[5] - The current policy shift is expected to prioritize quality and technological advancements, contrasting with previous supply-side reforms that focused on capacity reduction and deleveraging[5] - The establishment of a high-quality development assessment system will likely reduce the emphasis on GDP growth metrics while enhancing the focus on new and old kinetic energy conversion[5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The expansion of advanced storage and logic capacity in China is expected to continue driving demand for semiconductor equipment, with uncertainties arising from geopolitical factors, tariff fluctuations, and export controls potentially accelerating the domestic production process of semiconductor equipment [2][7] - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector is anticipated to benefit significantly from the ongoing advancements in high-end storage chips, as Chinese companies are gradually closing the gap with international leaders [7] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report suggests focusing on domestic semiconductor equipment companies, including: - Northern Huachuang (002371, Buy) - Shengmei Shanghai (688082, Buy) - Tuojing Technology (688072, Buy) - Zhongwei Company (688012, Buy) - Xinyuan Micro (688037, Buy) - Wanye Enterprise (600641, Hold) - Huahai Qingke (688120, Not Rated) - Jingzhida (688627, Not Rated) - Zhichun Technology (603690, Not Rated) - Saiteng Co., Ltd. (603283, Not Rated) - Jingce Electronics (300567, Buy) - Zhongke Feimiao (688361, Not Rated) [2] Market Trends and Data - In Q1 2025, the sales of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in mainland China reached $10.26 billion, reflecting a 14% quarter-on-quarter decline and an 18% year-on-year decline. However, the A-share semiconductor equipment sector reported a 39% year-on-year revenue growth to $18.9 billion, with net profit increasing by 38% to $2.8 billion, indicating a strong growth trend [7] - The Chinese wafer foundry industry is expected to maintain a capacity expansion trend, with capital expenditure needs anticipated to remain strong over the long term. By 2024, mainland China is projected to hold a 21% share of global foundry capacity, second only to Taiwan [7] - Domestic advanced storage continues to make breakthroughs, with companies like Yangtze Memory Technologies achieving significant advancements in high-end storage chip technology, which is expected to drive rapid growth in upstream equipment demand [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.36 CNY based on a 48x PE valuation for 2025 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share of 0.82 CNY, 1.20 CNY, and 1.52 CNY for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting an upward revision in revenue and gross margin forecasts [2][9]. - The Micro TEC product line is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the communication sector, with a 140.8% year-on-year increase in sales revenue in 2024 [8]. - The company is expanding into the energy storage market, with its semiconductor thermoelectric cooling technology showing promise as a new growth driver [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 400 million CNY in 2023 to 973 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% [4][11]. - Operating profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 151 million CNY by 2027, with significant growth rates in subsequent years [4][11]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve from 24.7% in 2023 to 31.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of July 4, 2025, was 35.41 CNY, with a 52-week high of 53.25 CNY and a low of 18.39 CNY [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of 3,125 million CNY [5]. Competitive Position - The company is one of the few in the industry that has mastered multiple preparation techniques for bismuth telluride-based semiconductor materials, enhancing its competitive edge [8]. - The ongoing investment in R&D is expected to further strengthen the company's core technology and product innovation capabilities [8].

Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Factor Names and Construction Details - **Factor Name: Trend** - **Construction Idea**: Captures the market's preference for trend-following strategies, using exponential weighted moving averages (EWMA) with different half-lives to measure price trends[11][16] - **Construction Process**: - **Trend_120**: $ \text{EWMA(halflife=20)}/\text{EWMA(halflife=120)} $ - **Trend_240**: $ \text{EWMA(halflife=20)}/\text{EWMA(halflife=240)} $[16] - **Evaluation**: Demonstrates strong performance in short-term market environments, reflecting increased preference for trend-following strategies[11] - **Factor Name: Certainty** - **Construction Idea**: Measures market confidence in stable and predictable investments, using metrics like institutional holdings and analyst coverage[16] - **Construction Process**: - **Instholder Pct**: Proportion of institutional holdings - **Cov**: Analyst coverage adjusted for market capitalization - **Listdays**: Number of days since listing[16] - **Evaluation**: Improved performance indicates restored market confidence in certainty-driven strategies[11] - **Factor Name: Value** - **Construction Idea**: Focuses on valuation metrics such as book-to-price (BP) and earnings yield (EP)[16] - **Construction Process**: - **BP**: $ \text{Net Assets}/\text{Market Value} $ - **EP**: $ \text{Earnings}/\text{Market Value} $[16] - **Evaluation**: Shows recovery in market preference for value-oriented investments[11] - **Factor Name: Liquidity** - **Construction Idea**: Assesses the impact of liquidity on asset pricing using turnover rates and liquidity betas[16] - **Construction Process**: - **TO**: Average logarithmic turnover over 243 days - **Liquidity Beta**: Regression of individual stock turnover against market turnover[16] - **Evaluation**: Underperformed significantly, reflecting reduced demand for high-liquidity assets[12] - **Factor Name: Volatility** - **Construction Idea**: Measures the impact of price volatility on asset returns using historical and idiosyncratic volatility metrics[16] - **Construction Process**: - **Stdvol**: Standard deviation of returns over 243 days - **Ivff**: Idiosyncratic volatility from Fama-French 3-factor model over 243 days[16] - **Evaluation**: Weak performance indicates declining interest in high-volatility assets[12] - **Factor Name: Momentum** - **Construction Idea**: Captures the continuation of price trends over different time horizons[16] - **Construction Process**: - **UMR_1Y**: Risk-adjusted momentum over 12 months - **UMR_6M**: Risk-adjusted momentum over 6 months[16] - **Evaluation**: Mixed results, with long-term momentum factors underperforming[12] Factor Backtesting Results - **Trend Factor** - Weekly return: 2.26%[11] - Monthly return: 2.98%[13] - YTD return: -3.81%[13] - 1-year return: 24.24%[13] - Historical annualized return: 14.10%[13] - **Certainty Factor** - Weekly return: 1.36%[11] - Monthly return: -2.87%[13] - YTD return: -11.74%[13] - 1-year return: -20.09%[13] - Historical annualized return: 2.63%[13] - **Value Factor** - Weekly return: 0.78%[11] - Monthly return: -2.14%[13] - YTD return: -10.78%[13] - 1-year return: -27.42%[13] - Historical annualized return: 7.14%[13] - **Liquidity Factor** - Weekly return: -3.85%[12] - Monthly return: 0.07%[13] - YTD return: 15.79%[13] - 1-year return: 29.31%[13] - Historical annualized return: -3.52%[13] - **Volatility Factor** - Weekly return: -2.83%[12] - Monthly return: -1.05%[13] - YTD return: 5.31%[13] - 1-year return: 28.00%[13] - Historical annualized return: -13.15%[13] - **Momentum Factor** - Weekly return (1-year UMR): 0.15%[24] - Monthly return (1-year UMR): 0.21%[24] - YTD return (1-year UMR): 1.69%[24] - 1-year return (1-year UMR): 1.22%[24] - Historical annualized return (1-year UMR): 3.87%[24] MFE Portfolio Construction - **Construction Process**: - Objective: Maximize single-factor exposure while controlling for industry, style, and stock-specific constraints - Optimization Model: $ \begin{array}{ll} max & f^{T}w \\ s.t. & s_{l} \leq X(w-w_{b}) \leq s_{h} \\ & h_{l} \leq H(w-w_{b}) \leq h_{h} \\ & w_{l} \leq w-w_{b} \leq w_{h} \\ & b_{l} \leq B_{b}w \leq b_{h} \\ & 0 \leq w \leq l \\ & 1^{T}w=1 \\ & \Sigma|w-w_{0}| \leq to_{h} \end{array} $[61][62] - Constraints: - Style and industry exposure limits - Stock weight deviation limits - Turnover rate limits[64][65] - Backtesting: Monthly rebalancing, transaction cost of 0.3% applied, and performance evaluated against benchmarks[66]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the automotive and parts industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The governance of "involution" competition is expected to promote healthy development in the industry, with continued focus on companies within the Huawei supply chain [1][13] - June sales in the automotive industry benefited from consumption promotion policies, with significant year-on-year growth observed [11][17] - The report suggests that companies related to the Huawei supply chain will be less affected by price competition, indicating a stable order growth for models like the Hongmeng Zhixing S800 [12][19] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report recommends continued attention to the Huawei supply chain, including complete vehicles and auto parts, with a focus on competitive domestic brands and new forces in intelligent driving technology expected to expand market share by 2025 [2][14] - Suggested companies for investment include SAIC Motor, JAC Motors, BYD, and several others in the automotive and parts sectors [15][16] Sales Tracking - In June, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 1.235 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15%, while retail sales reached 763,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 3% [17] - Notable sales growth was reported for several new energy vehicle brands, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 units in June, marking a new monthly high [19] Industry Dynamics - The automotive industry is taking proactive measures to combat "involution" competition, including shortening supplier payment terms to 60 days and implementing various actions to stabilize pricing and improve profitability [13][22] - The report highlights that the central government is focusing on eliminating low-price disorderly competition and enhancing product quality across the industry [13] Market Performance - The automotive sector's overall performance has been relatively flat, with the motorcycle and other segments showing better performance [22] - The report notes that the automotive industry has underperformed compared to the broader market indices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [24]

投资策略 | 定期报告 短期攻势暂缓，中期升势未变 策略周报 20250706 研究结论 ⚫ 全球市场下周或延续震荡 全球降息交易暂歇，下周延续震荡预期：前一周全球市场普涨系交易 9 月的美联储 降息预期，本周全球主要市场除巴西、美国和中国上涨外，整体出现震荡态势，降 息交易暂歇。我们认为美国市场本周全面上涨，并不是交易降息预期，主要是交易 政策不确定性下降，"大而美"法案成功落地短期降低了市场对特朗普政府执政能 力的担心，但这一利好已经落地，政策实际落地效果仍然具有不确定性。美国最新 就业数据公布后，利率期货交易员认为美国 7 月降息预期已微乎其微，9 月降息概率 也从 98%下降到 80%以下。综上我们认为全球市场的上涨或告一段落，下周延续震 荡预期。 风险事件乐观定价充分，预期差逆转压制上涨动力：上周中美推进"伦敦框架" （中方审批管制物项出口、美方松绑限制），市场或因此短期下调了风险评价。但 当前定价或已充分反映对关税战的乐观预期，市场可能会开始担心 9 日事件落地结 果难超预期。随着交易焦点转向 7 月 9 日关税休战到期， 风险评价预期短升将压制 全球市场反弹动能。 ⚫ A 股短期攻势或暂缓，关税 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [4][7] Core Views - Geely Automobile has raised its annual sales target by 10.7%, from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth prospects [11] - The company's sales in June reached 236,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, with electric vehicle sales growing by 85.5% [11] - The Galaxy series continues to show strong growth, with sales of 90,200 units in June, a year-on-year increase of 201.8% [11] - The report highlights that Geely's strategy is not merely about price cuts but is supported by technological advancements and strong cost control, which are expected to enhance profitability as scale effects are realized [11] Financial Forecasts and Investment Recommendations - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are 1.50, 1.76, and 2.13 RMB respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.36, 1.54, and 1.94 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 22.50 RMB, equivalent to 24.69 HKD, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times the average for comparable companies [4] - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are 179,204 million, 240,194 million, 319,444 million, 381,363 million, and 442,685 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.0%, 19.4%, and 16.1% respectively [6][12] - Operating profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3,806 million, 7,644 million, 14,116 million, 16,739 million, and 20,314 million RMB for the same period [6][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5,308 million, 16,632 million, 15,121 million, 17,735 million, and 21,451 million RMB, with growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, -9.1%, 17.3%, and 21.0% respectively [6][12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Insights - In June, the sales of the top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year decline, with total sales amounting to 370.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 21% compared to the previous year. The total sales area was 16.8 million square meters, down 30% year-on-year, indicating a widening decline compared to May [2] - The cumulative sales for the first half of the year for the top 100 companies decreased by 11% to 1.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a seasonal decline in the second quarter after a temporary stabilization in the first quarter due to policy effects [2] - The report anticipates that the launch of more "good housing" in core cities will lead to a hot market in first and second-tier cities, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to experience low transaction volumes [2] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In June, the sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies showed a significant decline, with the top 10 companies experiencing a 26% drop in sales, while the second and third tiers saw declines of 13% and 18% respectively [2] - The report highlights that the sales decline is expected to narrow in 2025 due to improved housing quality and stability in new home prices in high-energy cities [2] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive pressure of high-value new homes on the second-hand market, emphasizing that the advantages of new homes stem from local government concessions on land prices and planning [3] - It notes that the second-hand housing market has seen a significant drop in transaction volume since April, with new residential prices in 70 cities declining by 0.22% month-on-month and 4.08% year-on-year as of May [3] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that there is a high likelihood of new supportive policies being introduced in the third quarter, especially in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where there is still room for relaxation of purchase restrictions [3] - Potential policy measures include easing of provident fund withdrawal policies and monetary policy support, which could stimulate short-term market recovery [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on stocks with strong price elasticity, including Beike-W (02423, Buy), Jindi Group (600383, Increase), Longfor Group (00960, Buy), Poly Development (600048, Buy), and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [7]