Core Insights - The cobalt industry is expected to experience a significant price increase due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, with prices likely reaching new highs by 2026 [2][4][10] - The Congo (DRC) quota system is driving the global cobalt market's pricing power, with supply constraints becoming more influential than simple supply-demand dynamics [4][6][10] Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - The year 2025 marks a critical turning point for the cobalt industry, transitioning from a supply surplus to a structural shortage, which is expected to continue into 2026 [10][11] - The global cobalt supply is highly concentrated, with the DRC accounting for approximately 76% of global production, making the market sensitive to geopolitical and policy changes [41][50] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The DRC's export quota for cobalt is set at 96,600 metric tons annually for 2026-2027, a 55% reduction from 2024 levels, leading to a structural supply gap of 91,000 and 112,000 metric tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][10] - The supply of cobalt from artisanal mining is expected to remain limited due to government control and quota restrictions, impacting overall market supply [61] Group 3: Demand Projections - Battery applications dominate cobalt demand, accounting for 73% of total consumption, with electric vehicle batteries being the primary growth driver [4][19] - The demand for cobalt in the consumer electronics sector is also expected to recover, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% over the next three years [4][19] Group 4: Price Outlook - The pricing mechanism for cobalt is shifting from a cost-based model to one driven by supply shortages and geopolitical risks, suggesting that cobalt prices will remain elevated in the long term [11][10] - Cobalt prices are projected to maintain high levels due to the structural supply-demand imbalance, with significant price increases observed following policy changes in the DRC [15][38] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Key investment targets include Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Greeenme, all of which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases and supply constraints in the cobalt market [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 28.80 CNY based on a 20x P/E ratio for comparable companies in 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The recovery in external demand and new domestic scenarios are expected to drive a bottom recovery in the sweetener market [2]. - The price of sucralose has experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, alongside a notable increase in the prices of basic chemical products like sulfur and sulfuric acid [3]. - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 592 million CNY, 818 million CNY, and 870 million CNY respectively, reflecting a recovery trajectory after a decline in previous years [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is reported at 5,311 million CNY, with a projected slight increase to 5,412 million CNY in 2025, followed by a more substantial growth to 6,436 million CNY in 2026 and 6,628 million CNY in 2027 [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decline to 557 million CNY in 2024, before recovering to 592 million CNY in 2025 and reaching 818 million CNY in 2026 [5]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 19.2% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2026, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a potential blue ocean market for sucralose as a new feed additive, with the company being the only one authorized to produce and sell it domestically for a five-year regulatory protection period [10]. - The approval of sucralose as a feed additive is expected to significantly increase domestic demand, particularly in the piglet feed sector, with a potential total demand exceeding 3,500 tons [10]. - The report notes that while the export volume of sucralose is projected to decline by 19% in 2025, there are signs of recovery in export volumes towards the end of 2025, indicating a potential turnaround in external demand [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, indicating an expected return that is more than 15% above the market benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The report presents a unique perspective on the Shanghai government's initiative to acquire second-hand housing, which is seen as a significant signal for the market [1][4]. - The acquisition aims to alleviate the housing exchange chain and is supported by financial backing from China Construction Bank for affordable rental housing projects [2][3]. - The report highlights that the initiative is crucial in providing an exit channel for specific assets and reshaping price anchors, which could stabilize price expectations in the market [4][9]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a slight decrease in new and second-hand housing sales in the sixth week of 2026, with new home sales down 3% and second-hand home sales down 4% compared to the previous week [10]. Policy Implications - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace and intensity of policy implementations throughout 2026, particularly in response to weakening fundamentals [5]. - It suggests that the market should not overestimate the scale of the second-hand housing acquisition, as the willingness of homeowners to participate may be limited due to acquisition price constraints [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report identifies three categories of investment opportunities expected to yield excess returns: 1. Quality developers with light historical burdens and strong sales growth expectations [5]. 2. Commercial real estate operations, particularly shopping centers that can maintain stable growth [5]. 3. Real estate brokerage platforms that benefit from scale and brand advantages, which could see significant performance upside with policy implementation or market recovery [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

Market Outlook - Chinese assets are expected to benefit from a steady decline in domestic risk evaluation, contrasting with challenges faced by the governance capabilities of the US and Japan[18] - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in June 2026 is estimated at 50%[17] Asset Performance - A-shares have shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.27% over the past week, and the ChiNext Index down by 3.28%[11] - The bond market has seen a short-term rebound, with 10-year government bonds showing a 0.48% increase[11] Risk Assessment - Short-term uncertainty for commodities and gold is on the rise, while A-shares, US stocks, and US bonds exhibit stable medium-term uncertainty[25] - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to potential extreme risk events, such as US-China relations and global geopolitical tensions[6] Economic Cooperation - Recent visits by leaders from the UK and Uruguay to China indicate a trend of mid-sized countries seeking economic cooperation with China, enhancing their maneuverability against the US[18]

Asset Allocation Insights - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - The risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - Bond performance in February is expected to follow risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Market Sentiment and Risk Assessment - Regulatory measures in January have led to a more balanced risk preference, with high-risk investors showing decreased appetite while low-risk investors gain confidence[9] - Trading sentiment across large, mid, and small-cap stocks has cooled, but medium-term uncertainty remains relatively stable[9] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Current price increases in cyclical goods are key indicators for asset allocation, with a positive outlook on sectors like chemicals, agriculture, and non-ferrous metals[30] - The report highlights two main drivers for price increases: industrialization in emerging economies and geopolitical tensions affecting import prices[30] Model and Strategy Suggestions - The recommendation includes increasing positions in mid-term bonds and focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and military technology for February[5] - The multi-asset allocation strategy suggests a combination of passive and active enhancements, with a focus on risk parity models for stock and bond allocations[48] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on the agricultural and chemical sectors, suggesting that these areas are poised for growth as the market stabilizes and begins to recover from recent volatility [2][3][4]. Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a slight upward trend before the holiday, with a focus on mid-cap blue-chip stocks. The agricultural and chemical sectors are highlighted as timely investment opportunities [3]. - Investors are advised to avoid impulsive trading behaviors and to focus on structural opportunities, particularly in the agricultural sector, while maintaining patience for potential gains [2][3]. Industry Strategy - The chemical industry, particularly PVC, is compared to the aluminum sector, indicating that PVC asset values may be re-evaluated due to underlying demand shifts and regulatory influences on production capacity [4]. - The report notes that while the PVC industry has faced challenges due to real estate impacts, a significant adjustment in demand structure is anticipated, which could lead to a resurgence in profitability similar to that seen in the aluminum sector [4]. Thematic Strategy - The report discusses the potential for AI applications, particularly OpenClaw, to drive demand in computing power and related software tools, suggesting that these sectors may benefit from the maturation of AI technologies [5]. - The deployment flexibility of OpenClaw, supporting both cloud and local installations, is expected to create new market opportunities, particularly in scenarios requiring high data security [5].

Market Outlook - A-shares are focusing on mid-cap blue chips, with a neutral stance on bonds and US stocks, and a cautious outlook on gold in the short term[2] - Risk appetite in A-shares is shifting, with structural opportunities being the main focus amid overall market fluctuations[2] - The bond market is expected to continue following risk appetite trends, serving as a hedge against risk assets[2] Investment Strategy - The report recommends increasing allocations to mid-cap blue chips and sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, military, communication, and electronics[5] - A dual strategy of passive and active enhancement is suggested for stock-bond allocation, with a focus on increasing positions in mid-term bonds[48] Industry Insights - Price increases in cyclical goods are highlighted as key investment clues, particularly in the chemical, agricultural, and non-ferrous sectors[30] - Geopolitical tensions are raising global economic risk assessments, which is a fundamental driver for commodity price increases[30] Performance Metrics - The low-volatility strategy has achieved an annualized return of 11.8%, while the high-volatility strategy has reached 18.1% since 2025[9] - The industry rotation strategy has outperformed benchmarks with an annualized return of 44.8% since 2025[9] Risk Considerations - Extreme risk events could disrupt market expectations, and there is a risk of quantitative models failing to predict future trends[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the home appliance industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while the domestic subsidy effect is slowing, the "Two New" policy is expected to stimulate greater consumer potential in the home appliance sector. Leading white goods companies with higher energy efficiency product ratios and mature trade-in management processes are likely to benefit more significantly [3]. - The long-term strategy of expanding overseas production capacity remains a key focus, with companies that diversify their production locations expected to outperform. The report anticipates a valuation shift in 2026, particularly for companies like Roborock Technology and Lek Electric [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stable performance in core businesses and the potential for developing secondary growth avenues, with companies like Anfu Technology being highlighted for their strong cash flow and manufacturing capabilities [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Market Insights - The report notes that the domestic market is experiencing a marginal slowdown in subsidy effects, but ongoing policy optimizations are expected to unlock more consumer potential [3]. Overseas Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on overseas production as a long-term strategy, with expectations of accelerated price increases starting in Q1 2026 due to tariff impacts and rising raw material costs [3]. Investment Recommendations - Key investment themes include: - Leading companies with higher operational efficiency and stable dividend yields are recommended for conservative allocation, with Haier Smart Home and Hisense Visual Technology as notable mentions [3]. - Companies with a focus on international expansion are expected to see valuation shifts, with Roborock Technology and Lek Electric recommended for buying [3]. - Companies with stable core business performance and potential for secondary growth avenues, such as Anfu Technology, are also highlighted [3].

Report Title - New Bond Prices Pull Back, Market Cools Slightly Before the Festival: Weekly Observation of the Convertible Bond Market [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The current trend of the convertible bond market depends on the underlying stocks. Recent equity fluctuations have not affected the market's expectation of a slow bull market but have intensified the volatility of the convertible bond market, especially the significant pullback of new bonds. Before the Spring Festival, market activity has declined, although the inflow of convertible bond ETFs has continued but at a slower pace. Despite the high valuation of convertible bonds, the probability of active valuation killing is low in the short term, and the market is expected to remain range-bound with possible structural adjustments [6]. - The view on convertible bonds remains unchanged. Currently, trading opportunities are far greater than allocation opportunities. Attention should be paid to technical indicators, and investors can actively participate if there is a pullback before the festival. The reference value of the overall premium rate decreases after it becomes too high, and the importance of the remaining term increases. It is recommended to focus on sub - new bonds, bonds that have waived redemption, and bonds where shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [6]. - Last Monday, the market tumbled due to concerns caused by public opinions and quickly recovered after the rumors were refuted. As the Spring Festival approaches, investors' willingness to take profits has increased, and trading activity has significantly decreased. Recently, the technology and non - ferrous sectors have weakened, and funds have shifted to cyclical and consumer sectors, and this trend may continue. Short - term market fluctuations should not be feared. In an environment where domestic stability contrasts with external turmoil, it is beneficial for domestic assets, and foreign capital inflows are worth looking forward to. The main tone is still sideways consolidation with a slight upward trend, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks will become the mainstay in the future [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: New Bond Prices Pull Back, Market Cools Slightly Before the Festival - The current convertible bond market trend is mainly determined by the underlying stocks. Recent equity fluctuations have not changed the slow - bull market expectation but have increased market volatility, especially for new bonds. Before the Spring Festival, market activity has declined, and the inflow of convertible bond ETFs has slowed down. The market is expected to remain range - bound with possible structural adjustments [9]. - The view on convertible bonds remains that trading opportunities are more significant than allocation opportunities. Attention should be paid to technical indicators, and investors can participate during pre - festival pullbacks. It is recommended to focus on sub - new bonds, bonds that have waived redemption, and bonds where shareholders have not yet reduced their holdings [9]. - Last week, the market tumbled due to rumors and recovered quickly after refutation. As the Spring Festival approaches, profit - taking willingness has increased, and trading activity has decreased. Funds have shifted from technology and non - ferrous sectors to cyclical and consumer sectors, and this trend may continue. Short - term fluctuations should not be feared, and the slow - bull pattern remains unchanged, with mid - cap blue - chips expected to play a key role [9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bond Trading Volume Declines Slightly, Valuation Oscillates Upward 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Most Equity Indexes Close Lower, Trading Volume Declines - Last week, the equity market was volatile. The consumer dividend index performed strongly, while the commodity and technology sectors corrected significantly. Market sentiment was cautious. Most major equity indexes declined, such as the Shanghai Composite Index (-1.27%), Shenzhen Component Index (-2.11%), and others. In terms of industries, food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment led the gains, while non - ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors led the losses. The average daily trading volume decreased significantly by 656.51 billion yuan to 2.4 trillion yuan [12]. - The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Naipu Zhuan 02, Dongshi Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Baichuan Zhuan 2, etc. were more active [12]. 2.2 Convertible Bond Trading Volume Declines, High - Rating and Large - Cap Convertible Bonds Lead the Gains - Last week, convertible bonds rose slightly against the trend. The 100 - yuan premium rate oscillated upward, and the average daily trading volume decreased slightly to 8.1168 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.05%, the median conversion value rose 0.3% to 108.7 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate rose slightly by 0.4% to 32.8%. In terms of style, high - rating and large - cap convertible bonds led the gains last week, while high - price and low - rating convertible bonds performed weakly [14].